Debunking Three Myths About Sabermetrics

There has always been a perceived tension between pro-analytics baseball fans and anti-analytics fans. The battle is already over and done with in front offices, as both have been able to coexist, but there are still fans who disagree. Really, most of the disagreements are caused by ignorance towards the other side or just a lack of knowledge. For people to understand sabermetrics, they must get past some of the biggest myths. Here are a few of those myths, debunked.

Myth #1: We ignore human emotion and intangibles.

Absolutely false. Intangibles, clubhouse chemistry, and more are all part of the thought process of a sabermetric front office (and the ideal sabermetric fan). Look at Paul DePodesta, known by some traditionalists as anti-intangibles, he talked non-stop after the draft about how he loved the personalities of some of the organization’s draft picks. He says it is a big part of how he drafts, even with the Mets being one of the most sabermetric teams in the game.

When you look at traditional statistics, it doesn’t incorporate intangibles or emotion either. Neither traditional nor sabermetric stats do, so it’s not just a sabermetric problem. Every organization has their own method for evaluating players, with some weighing personality, intangibles, and clubhouse chemistry more than others. That has existed much longer than sabermetrics has.

Myth #2: It’s all about the numbers — and nothing else.

Sabermetrics-BreakdownThis covers a bit of the first point, but also enters another important topic: scouting. Some think that sabermetric teams (which now includes all but one or two teams in baseball) don’t emphasize scouting, or rely too much on their metrics.

I can’t tell you how a front office operates in that regard, but I can tell you that as someone who embraces sabermetrics, I value scouting.

Just as statistics can be predictive of a player’s future success, a scout can see the mechanics of a hitter’s swing and see unlimited potential, even when the numbers might say otherwise. Sometimes it’s the players that don’t succeed at first, but go on to have great careers.

While some may think statisticians don’t take anything but numbers into account (They think this because former players never become analysts, they become scouts), it’s simply untrue.

Myth #3: The stats are subjective.

Here is where the importance of being informed comes in (if it hadn’t already). The purpose of sabermetrics is to look at the game of baseball in the least subjective way possible. The goal isn’t to take human emotion out of the game, but to take human emotion out of the way we evaluate the game.

There are often players who are “counted out” and cast aside. Take Josh Satin, for example. Satin didn’t receive any significant big league playing time until he was 28 years old, mostly due to his age. Satin played four years in college, and wasn’t aggressively promoted. That meant he eventually fell out of “prospect” status and was never promoted. He put up minor league numbers on par with David Wright‘s, yet he didn’t get a promotion until many years later. That’s what sabermetrics looks to eliminate. Players who are too fat, too old, too short, have unique/complicated mechanics, are frequently not given an opportunity. It really doesn’t matter if players have these traits if they can provide the same production as a “normal” player.

Back to the point. People tend to look at the coefficients of a statistic like wOBA (weighted On Base Average) and say it’s subjective, that the creator of the stat just chose the coefficients. But why would a group of people who strive to be as least subjective as possible arbitrarily choose coefficients to put into their equations? That answer is: they don’t.

Take my example of wOBA. The equation changes slightly every year, but here is the equation from the 2012 season:

wOBA = (0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B +
2.058×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

Those numbers may seem random, but they are actually based on run expectancy, or how a particular event influence’s a team’s chances of scoring, which is what baseball is all about.

Slugging percentage tries to value events, but only does so for hits, and itself values the hits subjectively.

Is a team with a man on third three times as likely to score as a team who only has a man on first? Over one hundred years of baseball tell us no. Notice how an unintentional walk (uBB) isn’t worth the same as a single. This is because runners on base only advance one base (and only on a force) when the batter walks, while runners often advance multiple bases when the batter hits a single. This difference is statistically significant, and it is taken into account in this stat. See how this is all starting to come together?

* * * * * * * * *

There is a stigma surrounding analytics in baseball, just as there is in the rest of the non-sports world. People don’t like to believe that what they see (or how they perceive what they think) could be wrong.

It’s why people working for financial companies get frustrated when their economists put out bad projections, even when the economy is thriving. It’s really not about choosing one side or the other. It’s about acknowledging the pros and cons of each and using what you can see and what you can’t see together. That’s the best way to evaluate a baseball team.

mmo

About Connor O'Brien 312 Articles
Connor O'Brien is a second-year economics student in the Rutgers University Honors College, a lifelong Mets fan, and an editor here at MetsMerized Online. He embraces a sabermetric point of view in his articles, but doesn't believe this conflicts with scouting or player development. Follow him on Twitter @connor_obrien97
  • Waz0787

    Damn this a well written article. I am enlighten. You guys are right there is no way in hell I would have something written like this on metsblog. Metsblog sucks.

  • BronxMets

    If you have to defend sabermetrics then you have your answer.heck type it in here and it gets called out for not being spelled correctly.

  • CJM

    You’re a riot sometimes.

  • BronxMets

    I try

  • mitchpetanick

    I agree with the graphic – scouting + stats + business. That’s the way it should be.

  • Destry

    Great article. The only problem with sabermetrics is that people don’t understand it, and refuse to learn, and therefore assume its “stupid”. The only thing that is “stupid” about sabermetrics are the people that won’t take the time to learn what they mean.

  • Captain Clutch

    Hey connor, with all due respect, I was as ignorant at the beginning as I was at the end. Please stop trying to defend sandy and depo with this kind of feel good fluff. 🙂

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Lol i was just writing something up on the war stat lolol

  • Connor O’Brien

    I published this back in July and it started a HUGE week-long debate, but it’s still just as relevant today, especially with a new audience coming in. Hope you all enjoy it!

  • Brian D.

    I think I remember this post from a while ago – Too bad the comments are all gone lol.

    A few points:

    I disagree that Satin wasn’t given a fair shot. He wasn’t promoted aggressively because he was not a very good prospect. Not only was he always old for his level, but he lacked any stand out skills. He had limited power, no speed, and was a poor fielder. The player you compare his statistics to, Wright, had significantly better skills across the board and aced both AA and AAA at a very young age. The two players are not comparable at all.

    If sabermetrics is looking to eliminate this kind of evaluation, then it is severely flawed.

    Also, if sabermetrics includes all those factors listed in the graph, then everybody with any baseball knowledge uses sabermetrics and it is something that has been around forever. We all know that is not true, and it is primarily about advanced statistics. This notion that it now includes everything makes sabermetircs ambiguous, and impossible to clearly define.

  • Run Support Group

    This isn’t exactly a fluff piece. He presented statistics and logic.

  • E1Guapo

    I did, as a metsblog refugee I welcome the intelligent analysis. Now, are you willing to stand by the bold D Wright / Satin comparison over the course of next season? Perhaps you should be his agent if Satin puts up good numbers!

  • SRT

    This ^

    I found it a very balanced article explaining how stats alone – just like scouting alone – will not tell the whole story. Need a good balance from both.

  • mitchpetanick

    I agree, Brian. I think there needs to be a healthy balance of statistics and scouting, but it seems that guys that are damn good ball players continue to be put on the back burner in favor of guys with off the chart tools, but struggle to apply them in games. Connor states, “what sabermetrics looks to eliminate. Players who are too fat, too short, have unique/complicated mechanics, are frequently not given an opportunity. It really doesn’t matter if these players have these traits if they can provide the same production as a “normal” player.” It seems like sabermetrics should give a distinct advantage to the better baseball player instead of the toolsy players – but I just don’t see it. I continue to see organizations push guys based on ceiling and I think it ultimately hurts organizations.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    OH NOOOOOOOOOOOO NOT THIS AGAIN…SMDH….

    Is this a recruiting post for all SABR FREAKS??? LOL

    Calling all pencil necks, Calling all pencil necks LOL…

    I couldnt resist

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    That was a HILARIOUS comment Capt Clutch …lollol

  • Nathan

    There a lot of goals for saber or any other statistical modeling. However, in baseball, the goal of any stat is to attempt to tell the future. I do believe that certain statistics have value for this end and others only muddy the waters. Some years back BABIP was used to devalue or overvalue many players. This isn’t necessarily because the stat was flawed but was due to the improper use of the stat. In this way saber is as subjective as any other form of evaluation because it has to be interpreted and used by a person and being that the people who tend to run a baseball team are busy people they really can never have a full grasp of such a complex system. Consequently, the decision makers are left with the options of listening to the stat guy who is literally speaking Greek, not listen and go with traditional scouting because it is easier to understand, or utilize the saber stats to prove or disprove what they wanted to hear. This, of course, is not necessarily on or the other as all three are employed; however, as a fan, I can say that my disillusion of advanced stats stems from the use of them to devalue or over value a player not because they helped the team or not but because of an esoteric number that only a few people really understand.

  • Captain Clutch

    oh geez i got 6 thumbs down, and a this. I must be Wright.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I agree Mitch. And I think another common misconception is that sabermetrics is meant to replace scouting. That is not the case. It is meant to replace traditional stats, which used to be heavily used in front offices.

  • Connor O’Brien

    It’s not a comparison. All I said was that he produced results (results similar to David Wright, the “comparison” ends there).

    Although minor league stats don’t correlate to major league success as much as they ideally would, he put up an .800+ OPS every single season, yet he didn’t get a chance until age 26.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Thank you both!

  • Connor O’Brien

    Way to stay classy 😉

  • Joey D.

    Hi Connor,

    You left out a fourth one which is indeed the bone of contention for so many of us – it is not that saber stats are not useful in providing detailed reference material, it’s the contention that they reveal details and revelations that traditional empirical baseball professionals would otherwise not appreciate.

    You mention how a “particular event influence’s a team’s chances of scoring, which is what baseball is all about.” Do you think that the professionals and even us armchair managers were unaware of that beforehand and did not take into accounts the pros and cons of what to do? Even more so, don’t you recognize that a decision on what to do depends so much not based on what the odds say the outcome of the play would be but on the flow of the game itself, on the way the pitcher was throwing that particular moment, how the batter was swinging – even if one owned the other in the past but not on that particular day or evening – and even how the weather conditions could come into play? One should throw out the stats and go according to the game situation and the players involved – those stats are only a superficial mathematical accounting of all the past outcomes not getting into the precise detail of the individual circumstances facing the combatants at the time when each of those decisions were made. Sometimes the decisions were academic, but quite often, they were not.

    And for example, you also say:

    “Notice how an unintentional walk (uBB) isn’t worth the same as a single. This is because runners on base only advance one base (and only on a force) when the batter walks, while runners often advance multiple bases when the batter hits a single. This difference is statistically significant, and it is taken into account in this stat. See how this is all starting to come together?”

    Again, do you think we needed stats to know that?

    Connor, the stats are great if one wants to keep them in perspective but the problem is that fourth element which you did not touch upon and was what I brought up a while back regarding Brian Kenny when he said he appreciated what scouts could add to what the numbers said about a prospect’s projected chances of making it in the big leagues. That’s putting the numbers ahead of the human experience and indeed the human element.

    This is not economics, this is baseball.

    Mr. Spock once said a computer is a valuable aid but it is is not desirable to serve under them. That was when the M-5 was going to replace Captain Kirk because computers were making captains unnecessary personal.

    Again, it’s the missing fourth element that perhaps we both can address and come to a mutual understanding together.

  • vigouge

    That’s why it’s important for the decisions makes to be educated on all methods of evaluating talent. A GM not to having a good grasp of advanced statistics today should be grounds for termination. It would be like ignoring latin america when it comes to scouting.

  • vigouge

    You left out a fourth one which is indeed the bone of contention for so
    many of us – it is not that saber stats are not useful in providing
    detailed reference material, it’s the contention that they reveal
    details and revelations that traditional empirical baseball
    professionals would otherwise not appreciate.

    It’s never a problem to prove something using facts and data. I don’t even want to try and understand the person who somehow gets offended by additional information and proof. It’s a very “Hey you kids get off my lawn” view. If everyone already ‘knows’ why bother with statistics in the first place?

    It’s great you feel you already know enough to quantify and qualify events in baseball, not everyone else does including the most successful franchises in baseball where advanced statistics is a major part of their decision making.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Connor,

    Me too, thought it was well presented and written. As you probably saw, I thought the discussion missed focusing more on the heart of the issue – that it is being seen as a replacement of the human element, not an aid to it.

  • Nathan

    I disagree that GM’s have a true grasp of the effect of advanced statistics. What I mean by this is that the more complex a model is the more difficult it becomes to grasp how it will project and consequently provide on the field value. BA is a simple statistic and as such it is easy to imagine that a higher avg. means more hits. More hits means more chances to score runs. More chances to score runs means more wins. More wins means more butts in seats. More butts means more dollars. However when using truly advanced statistics this becomes a much less linear process and it requires a true professional in the field rather than an overall manager. An overall manager has so many responsibilities that they can not truly understand the ramifications of the statistic that they are being fed. Therefore, the statistician attempts to combine these models into an easier to understand and project “single stat” this single stat relies on the value that the statistician places on the individual models. When all is said in done very little is typically gained in the understanding of the value of a player. None of what I said is necessarily true as there are exceptions of that I am sure but when dealing with a complex organization such as a baseball team I would be very confident to say 80% of GM’s don’t truly grasp the information they are being fed.

  • vigouge

    I think it’s more a case of properly evaluating tools even if they’re not of the flashy sort. You know as well as anyone how some skill sets are overshadowed by others or at the very least valued less, by figuring out how exactly each individual event (hit, K, BB, error, etc) affects the game and assigning their true value rather than perceived value to them, you get one more analytical tool that at the very worst has a different set of bias’s to it making it a very nice compliment to scouting.

  • Captain Clutch

    where did alex ‘s comment go?

  • Joey D.

    Hi Svicusi,

    I appreciate the fact that sabermetrics now provides a great source of reference material “it is not that saber stats are not useful in providing detailed reference material”. In fact, it provides much more detailed preparation material than ever before, for example, in the pre-game ritual every pitcher and catcher goes through (it used to be called “the book”).

    What I spoke about was the contention that advanced stats provided revelations that one would otherwise not comprehend or appreciate. It is the contention that the game is now approached differently in the way it is played because of, for example, the emphasis about OBP based on statistical analysis. As mentioned, back in the early seventies, with the batting averages being about equal, hitters drew more walks and scored more runs than they did the past two seasons.

    That’s what I meant – perhaps the stat became a revelation to the fan to “prove something using facts and data” but as far as the game being played, it had no bearing for a walk was preferable to an out even then. They knew how to play the game as well as today’s players and perhaps better because there was no emphasis on hunting for one’s pitch based on an assessment of the pitch count; instead it was based on the pitcher on the mound, how he was throwing, what he was giving away with his pitches, the game situation, etc. In fact, we don’t even know if this emphasis – based on the statistical analysis – is why offense has gone downward the past few years, with the higher amount of strikeouts compared to the lower amount of walks being at the widest discrepancy in a century.

    That is what I mean – stats giving way to a better knowledge of a player’s individual tendencies is different that giving way to a better knowledge of how the game should be taught, played and managed.

    I think the most under-rated stat is one’s height – or lack of it. Give me one as short as a Rickey Henderson with his speed and that small strike zone any day!

  • Eric Raffle

    A very Specific Flaw/Failure of analytics is to over analyse unfinished ball players—Prospects. At low levels, Prospects must be observed on several levels—Performance to Metrics tells you a good deal about approach—and That is Important. However, Prospects need to be evaluated based on whether their tools PLAY at or above the level or their age expectation…more than performance/production. The Production measurements should be used to understand approach….and with heavier evaluation of AA/AAA guys.

    Fast Moving/very young/High ceiling talents may never stay at a developmental plateau for a long enough time period for accurate metric evals—they’re on to a new level when they suddenly become “ready”. You remain with a need to ID these guys by TOOL—By EYE—- they muddle, muddle…and then they’re FInished… Blammo. You don’t need the analytics to prove it.

    As for the lack of any good Stats for defense and baserunning—–those “stats” are not reliable—UZR is JUNK…..and baserunning must be observed as situational until it becomes better defined by stats.

    The Saber-Statement that compares Satin to David Wright at any level of advancement is not only ludicrous—It’s unbelievably Arrogant—-almost as arrogant as dismissing Sabermetrics entirely.

  • vigouge

    I disagree that GM’s have a true grasp of the effect of advanced statistics.

    There are quite a few that don’t, but more and more do.

    What I mean by this is that the more complex a model is the more
    difficult it becomes to grasp how it will project and consequently
    provide on the field value.

    I think you’re slightly overestimating just how much of the model the individual needs to truly understand. Statistics of any kind is fully of very difficult to understand concepts unless one is wired to think a certain way. That’s why there are so few statisticians. That’s also why when you see an advanced stat and, unless is proprietary, you’ll see certain adjustors that are there to put the end result in a understandable format.

    But to understand why things are a certain way like a walk being worth less than a single, the actual stat doesn’t do that, it can be explained like Connor did in the article and all these stats do have explanations. A GM, even one who is math illiterate, has multiple people on staff to explain it to him and educate him about it.

    This isn’t the only area where this can happen, how many GM’s do a lot of scouting in season? Not many but they rely on people to do it for them, present a detailed case on what they saw, and make recommendations. Advanced stats is no different.

    BA is a simple statistic and as such it is easy to imagine that a higher
    avg. means more hits. More hits means more chances to score runs. More
    chances to score runs means more wins. More wins means more butts in
    seats. More butts means more dollars.

    You’ve just proven why advanced statistics are needed. Batting average is a fairly terrible statistic. It tells you one thing and one thing only, the percentage of hits in that given sample of at bats. It doesn’t tell you anything beyond that. The very existence of slugging percentage and on-base percentage show that more information is needed.

    However when using truly advanced statistics this becomes a much less
    linear process and it requires a true professional in the field rather
    than an overall manager.

    An overall manager has so many responsibilities that they can not truly
    understand the ramifications of the statistic that they are being fed.

    I think I see you’re problem. Sabermetrics is of little value to the day to day, minute to minute, decision making of a manager, or even a player for a very simple reason, sample size. It’s strength is in finding the “truth” over a large period. For example you can’t measure how good a pitchers stuff is on a particular day, only how good it’s average is over a particular period. Where sabermetrics excels is in evaluating the typical performance of players against others even if they’re different types of players. Combined with scouting a club can figure out the best utilization of it’s resources be it money, roster space, etc. After that there are better tools to figuring out the how best to use those players and manager, at least good ones, know how to do that.

    Therefore, the statistician attempts to combine these models into an
    easier to understand and project “single stat” this single stat relies
    on the value that the statistician places on the individual models.

    Problem 2. The statistician doesn’t place the value, the data does. These formulas are derived from decades of recorded baseball events. Even once a formula has been written, it’s tested using past data and chaged until it gets the same results as reality had gotten. Not to different than doing a math problem and checking your work with a calculator. Here’s a very basic version.

    The first step is defining success and that’s scoring more runs than the other guy. That gives you runs as your goal to find. You look at the actual events and find the frequency of occurences which led to runs good or bad, (hit walk, hr, out, defensive error, etc). Once you have that you can eventually determine the ultimate value of each event good or bad. Those are building blocks to it. It’s really no different than scouting. In scouting you measure pitch speed, bat speed, arm strength and accuracy, all these little physical and mental things then you compare them to known data (every other player scouted) and make judgements.

    Since this is too byzantine a response as is and I’m very sleepy, I’ll give you a link to how it all comes together in the end.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

    This should be a nice example on how a stat develops.

    Let me say that I understand your concerns and questions. I tend to have the same sort of problems with things and it takes me a while to truly understand how some complicated systems actually fits which is really annoying when your a systems admin and Microsoft decides to just change stuff around every few years.

  • DrDooby

    Very much agreed. While stats are a useful tool in evaluating players and even prospects, the rule of thumb is that the lower the level, the less important the stats. Not only because of players being very much unfinished products and very uneven competition but also due to smaller sample sizes and very different backgrounds or levels of being prepared for the experience of pro ball and the grind of a long Baseball season. We’re often talking about teenagers here, sometimes coming to the US at age 17, maybe not even able to speak English and thrown into a totally different world. Discounting a prospect under age 22 because of any sort of statline he has posted at any level in the minors is borderline stupid. Unless the flaw is so obvious, say a pitcher walks one batter per inning or a batter strikes out every other PA. But the scouting report is the much bigger key. Does a finesse righty dominate A-Ball hitters by spotting his 88 mph fastball on the corners and throwing a solid breaking pitch ? Does an advanced college player with “slider bat speed” feast on fat pitches that are left up over the plate. Very often, you need the scouting report with the stats to draw the right conclusions.

    Another dangerous thing is using stats out of context.
    For example, one of the worst mistakes to make is to use home / road splits as an indicator of how a certain player will perform elsewhere before thinking about context first. For example, a hitter playing in a hitter friendly park such as Texas in the AL West or Colorado in the NL West always figures to have rather extreme home / road splits. Not only because most players do better at home anyway or because of favorable home park effects – but also because most road parks in those divisions are very pitcher friendly, so you sort of get the reverse effects on the road split side as well.

    Also, understanding why a certain park plays in a certain way is key to understanding the numbers. For example, the Oakland park has a huge foul territory. Pop flies that land in Row 6 at Citifield, well out of reach for any defender can make for a routine out in Oakland. You need to know more about a player’s tendencies to understand how a certain park will play. If a player’s game is reliant on peppering line drives or hard groundballs into the outfield, a short porch in RF probably won’t have much of an effect whereas a player with warning track power could thrive in that smaller park.

    A player like Stephen Drew is considered as “injury prone” under some projection systems because he missed both half of 2011 and half of 2012. What the systems fails to acknowledge is that this was one severe singular knee injury that cost him the 2nd half of one season and the first half of the next season.

  • DrDooby

    And to add, I guess the point is to be aware of the context of stats and to be able to understand what a certain stat tells. The most successful organizations are able to combine traditional scouting with statistical analysis. And that very much exceeds the pure skill set of a player now or going forward but also the financial implications.

    For example, holding a player back for 20 days in his first season, gives you a full extra year of team control before he becomes a free agent and can save you millions of dollars plus create extra leverage in contract talks. The question to ask is: How valuable is 20 extra days from this player NOW compared to an extra full seasons in 6 or 7 years ? A lot of factors may enter into this decision.

    Likewise, a projection model can tell you what the odds are how a player with a certain career track has aged historically and combine it with scouting reports – both on the current players and historical comparables with a similar scouting report or just a flukishly similar statline but a very different scouting report. That can be very helpful in determing free agent contracts or which player should be given a “2nd generation” contract and who shouldn’t.

  • Hotstreak

    “Stupid” and “Ignorant” sounds like congressmen bashing their opponents.

    Seriously does SABR in a platoon 1B measure the comfort, knowledge and rapport of a 3rd basement knowing he can throw in the dirt and the wide arm and sure footed 1B will catch it. Did they ever show metric of 3B with a platoon 1B if his (third baseman)errors went up? Do they keep a stat on foul balls to build up pitch count NOT just P/PA but foul balls that lead to a key hit. Foul balls build up pitch count and the pitcher may give in. Scouting is 70 % of player evaluation IMO. Yes as long as the tail doesn’t waive the dog. BABIP is the only really good SABR IMO.

    Connor you are the guy who rejects OPS. That is the holly grail of SABR.

    By the way BB only have a 23% or so correlation to runs scored. What about being behind in the count where BA is the lowest by taking pitches.

    Since I gave my opinion I must be “ignorant” and stupid”

    I do not say throw out SABER I say just like a weather forecast with dopler radar, look outside the window before you decide to take an umbrella, it could be raining even the the forecast was sunny.

  • Hotstreak

    Moved below my original comment.

    Sorry DrDooby. 🙂

  • Hotstreak

    THIS COMMENT WAS MOVED FROM ABOVE: P.S. Justin Turner many a time as a pinch hitter fouled off a ton of balls with two strikes before getting a key hit. Look at his stats and they are meh. That is why the eyes have it over the number crunches: I am one of the number crunches but ALWAYS GO BY THE MOST CURRENT DATA. Be wary of small sample size. Take DW he is hot and cold. You have to observe. That is why I give scouting 70% input. for player evaluation.

  • willywater88

    Connor – this might be the best piece I have seen on MMO yet.

    “The goal isn’t to take human emotion out of the game, but to take human emotion out of the way we evaluate the game.”

    It is difficult for many people to understand that their experience and their perceptions as a sample size of one can be highly inaccurate but understandably so. Anytime you introduce a rational idea that contradicts others core beliefs, it must be done gently or you risk fighting an uphill battle against a very defensive opponent.

  • Bail4Nails

    I’ll play the idiot joining the conversation. From a regular fans perspective, I look at statisticians as kids who never played baseball growing up. They are smart kids who majored in economics, and were then hired by business people who became “managers” of teams. I understand from a business perspective, owners look for something they can rely on, beyond a scout’s “hunch”, to put a winning team together.
    What is missing from the Mets front office (highly reliant on sabermetrics), is someone who actually played the game of baseball!
    Why is this important? What the smart kids never realized was how badly we wanted to finish our boring Math homework to go outside and play baseball. It’s supposed to be fun!
    Fans don’t want to come to the park to watch players walk. They don’t want to go to school or work, and get made fun of by Yankee fans because their team signed a nobody who has great wOBA. If Sabermetrics was so useful, why haven’t the A’s won a World Series? Why haven’t the Mets even sniffed the playoffs in the last three years?
    There is a reason David Wright is the best player on his team, and it’s not wOBA. His father was a cop, he was raised right. He worked hard his whole life, toughed it out when he had to, and never made excuses for himself.
    While this might not mean a damn thing to a statistician, it means a hell of a lot to us fans.
    We can get behind David Wright. He helps us believe that hard work and doing the right thing really can pay off. We feel proud taking our kids to the game and saying to them, “He’s one of us.”
    This sounds all beside the point, but it is the point. Sell tickets to fans, and you have money to improve the team however you want! But, first you have to impress the fans!
    Here’s one example: I cannot stop hearing fellow Met fans clamoring to see Wilmer Flores play this season. Yet, every stat guy in here talks nonstop about positional value and defensive WAR for Flores. What they miss is the excitement in the crowd when he gets a hit with RISP. Do you know what that equals? More ticket sales, more jersey sales, and more LIFELONG FANS.
    I can read off the entire lineup of the 1986 Mets. I loved that team and every player on it! I have absolutely no idea what any of their “numbers” were. You know why? Because it wasn’t nearly as fun as remembering how Straw could hit the low fastball with that tall stance, how Backman and Dykstra dove all over the place, how Carter and Keith were the big brothers on the team, or how tough Ray Knight was. This is what fans love more than numbers.
    What’s my point? Crunch your numbers, parse data, and calculate stats all you want. But please, pick a team and stick with it. Let the scouts hunch, the coaches coach, the players play, and sell it to the fans. We don’t root for numbers. We root for people.

  • Hotstreak

    I think eschewing the word “ignorant” for a difference of opinion would help stay classy.

  • Kirk Cahill

    Bravo, Connor. This is by far my favorite post on MMO since I’ve been a reader.
    This makes me proud to be a part of this blog.
    Too often sabermetrically slanted fans are told to take their calculators and go home.
    What people fail to realize is how all-encompassing sabermetrics are.
    As a person who believes in sabermetrics I can tell you that my favorite part of the game is the scouting side. I go to tons of minor league games and almost NEVER look at the stats of the players I’m watching.

  • Hotstreak

    In a fantasy league they root for numbers not people. 🙂

    Oh our batter in the past before becoming a Met creamed this pitcher when he played in a bandbox. Now we got his guy and the dimensions down RF are 30 feet more here. This pitcher pitches lefties inside. The foul line is 320 feet instead of 290 feet. Oh what do I tell this batter to do? Swing or walk. Any suggestions? We are one run down last of the ninth this guy is a power hitter named Grandy.

  • Bail4Nails

    Haha true. For the record, I don’t do fantasy leagues. I think it is destroying sports. There are far too many players out there who know what their fantasy numbers and rankings are, and I’m sure that effects team chemistry. I miss the days when players didn’t talk to the guy on the other team, he was your sworn enemy during the game. It’s all become a big joke now.
    As for numbers, you’re right- even us idiots use them a lot when watching baseball. Ken Burns’ documentary says it the best:
    “Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything”

  • $89210078

    Cant wait for that book to come out …… wow

    Baseball Maverick: How Sandy Alderson Changed the Game

    http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Maverick-Sandy-Alderson-Changed/dp/0802119980

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Why was my comment deleted??? Ohhh wait, i forgot how one cannot make a comment about an IMMORTAL. shouldn’t a person include heart when talking about sabermetrics? is that bad to say? ohh apparently yes, because it derailed everything one say about numbers in baseball… smh.. welcome to MMO people… SMMFH

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Because i am not allowed to talk bad about sabermetrics… everything i said was on point… this kid LOVES numbers yet has never played the game, so of course he’s gonna debunk everything baseball related where he can use numbers.. smh…

  • E1Guapo

    Though I do agree with the MLB scout in “Moneyball” that paid particular attention to the attractiveness of the ballplayers’ girlfriends! We Mets fans appreciate the WAG photos as much as anything else.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    SMH…. horrendous.. 9 straight losing seasons as a GM, left 2 franchises scratching for their lives, one still recovering and he now is trying his hardest to make us into a perennial joke…

  • Eric Raffle

    Baseball has always been the best game for.meaningful player stats….. the Saber guys just discovered a bunch of new and cool stats

  • METS62FAN

    BAIL4, AS A GRAYBEARD NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE THE CONCEPT AS MUCH MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE DOCUMENTATION. WHERE THE RUBBER TRUL;Y MEETS THE ROAD IMO, IS WHERE THEW USER TURNS TO RESOLVE ‘FOGGY”, UNCLREAR SITUZTIONS. WHERE I BELIOEVBE IT UIS MOST AGGREGOUSLY EMPLOYED IS THE AREA OF CREATION/CONVERSION ie WHEN EXECUTIVES LIKE OUR “TRIUMVIRATE” COME INTO SITUATIONS WITH COMPLETED ROSTERS WITH LITTL;E OPORTUNIOTY TO ADD HIGH VALUE SABRE TYPE PLASYERS SO THEY INSTINCTIVLY FALSLY ATTEMPT TIO IMPROVISEIONALLY CONVERT FORMER NON SABREMETRICALLY STRONG CANDIDATES INTO SABREMETRICALS BY APPLYING “RULES OF GAME APPROACH, MUCH AS ALDERSONM HAS BREEN ATTEMPTING TO APPLY AS A QUICK FIX BY HIRING A STAUNCH SABREMETRICIAN IN HITTING APPROACH ALLY IN DAVE HUDGENS WHO CUT HUIS HITTING INSTRUCTION TEETH WITH OAKLAND. LEFT WITH A SQUARE PEG & ONE ROUND HOLE, WHITTLING AWAY THRE CORNERS ON THE PEG TO FORCE IT TIO SLIDE INTO THE HOLE NEVER IS AS SUCCRESSFUL AS MAKINFG BETTER USE OF THE PEG AS IT WAS CONSTRUCTED. OBVIOUSLY THE WHITTLED DOWN PEG LEAVES TOO MANY UNMATCHED SEAMS BETQWEEN IRTSELF & THE SIDES OF THE ROUND HOLE.
    JUST AS HUSGENS’ HITTING FOR SABREMETRICAL SUCCESS APPROACH DOES NOT FIT DAVIS’ FLAWED, “YET PROVEN EFFECTIVE WHEN USED HIS WAY” HITCHED SWING.
    MENTASLLY JUDGING A PITCH AS GHITTABLE FOR A SAFETY OR BETTER IGNORED TAKES AN AMOUNT OF TIME. UNHITCHING A MORE COMPLICATED SWING TAKES TIME. OBVIOUSLY TO ANYONE WATCHING THE COMBINATION OF TIME FRAMES EXTENDS LONGER THAN EFFECTIVE FOR THE PITCHER TO ACCOMPLISH HIS GOAL.

    THE IKE DAVIS SITUATION IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THE NYM BIGGEST & FOGGIEST REALITY Vs. SABREMETRICAL CONFLICT ITS’ RESOLUTION WILL DETERMINE THE EFFECTIVNESS OF THE TRIUMVIRASTE’S SABREMETRICAL CONVERSION OF OMAR’S SUPPLIED ASSETS.
    SHOULD THEY FAIL; TO RETURN DAVIS TO HIS FORMER PROFICIENCY BY EXEMPTING HIM FROM THE STOCK FORMULA BEING APPLIED ACROSS THE BOARD AND TRADE HIM ELSEWHERE CHOOSING TO RELY ON SATIN , DUDA OR SOME COMBO OF BOTH WHILE DAVIS FLOURISHES AS MINAYA HAD FORSEEN WITH HIS NEW EMPLOYER, THAN THE SYSTEM AS IT IS BEING APPLIED, IMO IS AN ABJECT FAILURTE THAT REQUIRES SERIOUS REEVALUATION

    .

  • dealingwithidiots

    So you didn’t actually read the article huh? Do you need help with the big words?

  • dealingwithidiots

    Well good news, you are still ignorant, this article has nothing to do with defending anyone. That’s the go to, when people are not smart enough to actually read and participate in the topic, go to the old faithful “Defend Sandy, Sandy Lover, I’m too stupid to understand so you must be a sandy lover”

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    And btw, are you now making Connor and your IMMORTALS moderator Joe D??? yeah, that’ll be nice… as soon as they see a comment they don’t like, that comment is gonna be gone… you know they’ll delete it as my comment was deleted in here just for using the words will, heart, desire to be great… smh

  • dealingwithidiots

    So you didn’t read the first Myth huh?

    Myth #1: We ignore human emotion and intangibles.

    Absolutely false. Intangibles, clubhouse chemistry, and more are all part of the thought process of a sabermetric front office (and the ideal sabermetric fan). Look at Paul DePodesta, known by some traditionalists as anti-intangibles, he talked non-stop after the draft about how he loved the personalities of some of the organization’s draft picks. He says it is a big part of how he drafts, even with the Mets being one of the most sabermetric teams in the game.

    When you look at traditional statistics, it doesn’t incorporate intangibles or emotion either. Neither traditional nor sabermetric stats do, so it’s not just a sabermetric problem. Every organization has their own method for evaluating players, with some weighing personality, intangibles, and clubhouse chemistry more than others. That has existed much longer than sabermetrics has.

  • METS62FAN

    MEA CULPA FOR MULTITUDINOUS TYPOS, SORRY FOR INCONVENIENCE

  • XtreemIcon

    I’m a moderator. And I’ll tell you now that “will, heart and desire” aren’t the words that get your comment deleted.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    guys like me, Maniac, Leroy, Jimmy, CORE members in general are pretty much screwed…. guarantee that..

  • XtreemIcon

    That’s 100% on you guys then. No one else.

  • $89210078

    good to see alex is still alex, gotta give him credit. he is a lunatic, but he is passionate about it . WOW

  • $89210078

    i will read that book, although i think its a bit early regarding to his work for the mets, well see

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    I speak the truth.,… that’s what i do

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    3 years, 77-85 74-88 74-88 and it’ll continue this year when we likely win 75 games and then some people will unbelievably say it’s an improvement over the previous year, we’re on our way smh..

  • $89210078

    ill just saw your website Connor , you did a nice job so far, keep it going . Your work ethic related to our beloved Mets is impressive , especially at your age .

  • E1Guapo

    How about the all caps? I had flashbacks to my military days reading SITREPs.

  • But then you act as if all sports guys are dumb jocks. Baseball is full of intelligent players, some who graduated from Ivy League schools and are most likely more intelligent than anyone on this board.
    Both scouting and saber have a place in the game. Relying on either as the end all be all will be the end all.

  • Eric Raffle

    The Guy has a love and interest and insight on the game—– he’s not allowed to comment because he didn’t play? …. or he didn’t Play Babe Ruth Ball?…or HS Ball?…Legion Ball?…. College Ball?

    What needs to be on a person’s resume (as a player) to enter a discussion with You?…and btw, You Posted to HIS discussion.

    As for Baseball NUMBERS… 500 home runs…3000 Hits…. 200 Hits….. 100 RBI’s….. 10 Strikeouts….20 Wins…. Baseball has been all about GReat Numbers FOREVER….. Some of these “New Numbers” are Great—Interesting…Often very meaningful…

    …and they’re FUN…Have some Fun!!!

  • ReedRothchild

    Connor, I hope you never, ever let angry, miserable people like Alex and the other mindless Core of Bore members get you down.

    Your writing raises the level of debate immeasurably.

    Every time one of them comments, it demolishes the level of debate.

    Bravo for deleting Alex’s excrement.

  • $89210078

    i have to admit , as it is right now, i dont see the mets winning 80+ games. On the other hand its baseball, lets fight our way through and maybe a little streak at the end will be enough . You never know how the NL plays out . Overall, we would not have a chance in the 2014 Playoffs ( again, as it is right now roster seen ) so its no secret that 2015 is the goal to come out of the gate as a contender . Anything over 74 wins and no major injuries should be seen as a good year

  • ReedRothchild

    Did Billy Beane play the game?

    Hmmmm…

    As TRS says below, scouting and saber have their places. Using ALL tools to evaluate players makes the most sense.

    To most people, folks like you sound like very old people who detest change and wish it was still the 1950s.

    Sorry; progress is excellent.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    So now we’re moving the goal to 2015? since 2011 has been next year, we haven’t even played a single game and already you KNOW we ain’t gonna be good in 2014 which was supposed to be “the year” for us to be in the playoffs and WS contender. at least you’re honest about it unlike others who don’t wanna admit the failure of this FO. smh..

  • ReedRothchild

    Hahahahaha!

    Sorry li’l fella—with the tremendous and outstanding exodus of people from Metsblog to MMO, life is going to be very, very difficult for the Baseball Flat Earth Society folks like you and your 3–4 “friends.”

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    reedroth, Thanks for reading and commenting. #TheCORE truly appreciates your input…

  • Captain America

    Follow your dreams Connor.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Sigh… stupid is an illness and contengius. you guys have been infected there for far too long..

  • Dear new guys from MetsBlog. “Mets62Fan” has an issue with his eyes where he needs to use all caps just to see what he wrote.

  • When it has to do with a SABR article or anything from this author he will skip reading the post and just rail away in the comments.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Thanks for reading and commenting…

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Moving on….

  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Kettmann

    Looks like the author was the A’s beat writer from ’90 – ’99 and he was the ghost write for Canseco’s book Juiced amongst other things. Even though it covers his whole baseball career this book is WAYYYY too early and should of been held until his Mets days are over.

  • Martin

    Depodesta only says hat stuff about personality to cheer up stupid fans. None of that matters. Numbers matter.

  • $89210078

    i agree

  • Hotstreak

    So SLG% 1 to 1 with OBP is distortion I believe you say. Doubles are NOT twice as valuable as singles you say or at least you agreed with someone who said that.

    I guess RISP is not important. I personally believe a double is actually worth more than twice as valuable as a single BUT a triple is not the same proportion as valuable as a double.

    SABR guys value OPS and OBP plus SLG%. I do NOT call you “ignorant but your credibility in my playbook is in question. Once you use the word “ignorant” you get no sympathy or encouragement because your young. Have some respect for others opinions.

    I

  • Bail4Nails

    Yes, I saw Moneyball too. And yes, progress is excellent, unless you’re the Mets, apparently. I’m actually in my 30’s, right on the cusp of the moment when computers took over our entire life. Baseball used to be one of the few constants you could rely on, but it feels more and more like a business. I think that’s what bothers fans like me. We like to talk baseball, but not feel like we are at a board meeting. A lot of these numbers, abbreviations, and projections can be overwhelming, and kind of take the fun out of baseball. I understand it is important though.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Did Billy Beane play the game?”

    Yes, he actually did, but he SUCKED at it….

  • vigouge

    Don’t bother with him, it’s really not worth it. He has this personal vendetta against Connor.

  • Brian D.

    “I’ll play the idiot joining the conversation.”

    Just because you are not a believer in a popular trend doesn’t mean you are an idiot. In fact, it could mean you are intelligent and independent thinker.

    I don’t think saber fans in general are any more smarter than the average fan. I don’t think it has anything to do with intelligence – To me, it’s about opinions and personal tastes.

    Stick to your guns. Even if saber fans do happen to be smarter than you, it doesn’t make them right anyway. Even people who are geniuses can be flat out wrong sometimes.

    vinny b

  • kw_all

    “I can say that my disillusion of advanced stats stems from the use of them to devalue or over value a player”

    this is where it falls off the rails for me as well, and i will use the example of Lucas Duda. advanced metrics say he is a productive useful player, jeez the Mets are talking about handing him the 1b job and even Duda says he did enough to earn the starting spot.
    however, i watched him play all summer and i cannot recall one game he helped the team win, he was hitting #4 but did not hit with risp, did not drive in runs, did not score runs at a high rate (so much for his OBP) nor were his homers productive because they were all solo. he has no speed, limited defensive range and hits for a low average. but his saber numbers, specifically wOBA and OPS+ make him seem like something my eyes tell me he clearly isnt, a productive major league player

    Connor, thanks this was a well researched article, my hope is that someday the Mets front office listens to their scouts a bit more and perhaps cut the Duda’s of the world (the saber good but baseball bad players) and bring in offensive players who actually produce in run scoring situations.

    Lastly, i am not sold on Josh Satin, but he does deserve a legit shot

  • JimmyBX

    If you want debate, go to a politics blog. That’s where the miserable, unaccomplished, bitter people assemble to talk about stuff they’ve never experienced, in order to act like they know something.

    SOME OF US actually talk about baseball through experience. The only true knowledge is based on experience. Hopefully some of the younger folks on this blog don’t live life through eyes of inexperience.

    That’s part of the problem with our country. People in charge simply through education and not experience.

  • JimmyBX

    No one is asking for qualifications. What we ARE asking for is to relax with redundantly worthless numbers. It’s like giving out a recipe that includes the breakdown of every ingredient down to its molecular structure. It’s ridiculous.

    A LOT of us don’t waste our time judging players by their “wOBA” or their “WAR”. You can judge a player easily and more conveniently with the basic BA, HR, RBI, SB. Everything else is grossly overrated. Some of these new stats put players in some category of player where they’re overvalued. None more obvious than Chris Young.

    While statheads are more interested in walks, I’m more interested in meaningful, late game, game tying or go-ahead RBI producing hit. There’s no other specialized stat I would care for. And of course, the statheads don’t produce this type of stat because they’re not adept at checking what’s important. To them it’s a blind numbers game created solely so one can “debate”. How does one debate with people who have less knowledge than you do? The minute you TRY to educate, their brains cramp up and their wires short circuit.

    Nothing is more ignorant than this blind love for OBP. Who wants their middle of the order hitter walking? I sure don’t. Try to explain to a stathead that pitchers walk superior hitters because they don’t want to get beat by them and they can’t comprehend it. Try telling them it’s strategic to walk superior hitters and they freeze. Crediting a player for doing nothing is worthless. No hitter goes up there looking for a walk unless there’s a pitcher up there completely struggling with his control. Stats don’t tell you that.

  • Here’s an idea. How about you stop telling other fans what they should or shouldn’t like, you stop telling bloggers what they should or shouldn’t write, and stop telling readers what they should or shouldn’t read.

    I know you are very big on equal rights, free speech, and mutual respect.

    Here’s another idea. Why don’t you just comment on what you like and ignore what you don’t?

    You’re an intelligent guy. How ridiculous is it for you to wast your valuable time pumping out 500 words on a something you say you don’t want to waste your valuable time reading about?

  • JimmyBX

    The Billy Beane hype was funny. He was brutal. What Beane doesn’t admit is he didn’t have the heart to handle NYC. He also couldn’t handle big league heat. But guys like this make the best scouts at times. I don’t think he was a fantastic scout. What he was good at was selling a theory, which really was supported by an A’s team with strong pitching. What helped him was the Fantasy League players who adored his non-baseball, numbers based approach. It created a sub-culture that generated a ton of money and followers.

    At the end of the day, elite power hitters and excellent pitching staffs win games. Stats/moneyball/sabremetrics don’t. All they do it fill in the gaps for kids who didn’t play ball. It gives them a weapon to talk a sport they never played. It gives them a certain “knowledge” which leads them to believe they can “debate” with guys like me lol.

    AND THAT’s 99.99% of the times a LOSING proposition as PLENTY of statheads across blogs all over the Internet have painfully found out lol

  • JimmyBX

    Which is why I hardly post on Connor’s articles. I accidentally stumbled on it and realized too late it was his. Most of the times I DONT read an article based on stats. I look at responses and join. Since I’m on my iPad, I was clicked right into the discussion.

    Only because MB regs are here am I interjecting some of my personal opinions. Trust me, and you know this, I’ve ignored PLENTY of Connor’s Saber based articles in the past. Only when I need to sleep, do I crack one open with the hopes I’m plastered into unconsciousness after 3 sentences lol.

    I stopped “debating” this stuff a long time ago. And I’m too anti-media/pro-player to ever tell fans how not to think.

    I wouldn’t be “JimmyBX” then…..lol

  • JimmyBX

    It’s only progress for those who never put on a pair of cleats. Thanks to this and Steve Jobs, guys like you have a forum where you can fake everything from photos, careers, relationships, to baseball knowledge.

    #progress
    #winning

  • Connor O’Brien

    Did you play professionally?

  • Connor O’Brien

    Thank you! Much appreciated

  • Connor O’Brien

    I didn’t delete your comment, but it did strike me as rather vicious in tone. I don’t remember your exact wording but it wasn’t an innocent comment like you claim.

    As for your “will, heart, desire to be great,” sabermetrics doesn’t want to eliminate that. That falls under what you see when watching the game. That’s what scouts see. Scouting has a major place in a sabermetric organization as well. Sabermetrics is just an improvement on your RBI, BA, OBP, etc, which, by the way, ignore “heart, desire, will…”

  • Connor O’Brien

    If you don’t attack anybody you’ll be fine. I’m not going to delete your comment just because it argues against my point.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I wouldn’t say sabermetrics fans aren’t interested in “late game, game tying or go-ahead RBI producing hit”
    In fact, we have stats on those, which I profiled in July. That must have been the post you went straight to the comments section to talk about how I never played professional baseball…

  • Connor O’Brien

    2014 was the year we expected to see significant improvement. We can’t set a date on when we’ll be competitive as soon as a GM starts. You have to see how his (or her) players develop and what the market looks like.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Thank you Kirk!

  • Connor O’Brien

    You guys are talking trash about Billy Beane, yet I highly doubt either of you have the “experience,” which you claim is the absolute and only form of baseball knowledge.

    Sorry, but playing in high school doesn’t make you a baseball expert.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Thanks!

  • Connor O’Brien

    I didn’t call anyone stupid and I’m not using ignorant in a negative way.

    I don’t think scouting is quite 70% of evaluation, but it still has a significant place (I can’t put a percentage on it though). I would hold firm on that if I was a traditional fan too. All I want to do is replace that 30% (which is higher for me) with sabermetrics and improve on the traditional stats.

    And OPS is not the holy grail of sabermetrics.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I didn’t mean to use ignorant in that sense. It does not always have a negative connotation.

    Someone who is ignorant to something just means they don’t know much about it. It’s not an insult, or at least it wasn’t meant to be perceived that way.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I did play for years but…

    Anyway, I didn’t delete your comment, which WAS very rude. If your going to argue my point, don’t talk about me personally because it’s irrelevant. If you have to talk about someone personally to prove a point, maybe you need to rethink what you believe in.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Again, not used in a negative way. Just get off it.

  • Connor O’Brien

    THANK YOU!!!

  • Connor O’Brien

    Well someone is just going around downvoting all my comments…

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Your name is fitting…it must be hell dealing w/an idiot like yourself everyday.

    I read this article the 1st time it was posted MONTHS ago…Hence the, “NOT THIS AGAIN!”

  • Eric Raffle

    Real Fans have argued over players and stats FOREVER….it’s the beauty of baseball beyond all other sports.

    I Like many of the Derived and computed stats—OPS is a Great Stat! Platoon split stats are great. Some I like more than others….sometiems they provide some insight/clue about what you see with your eyes—sometimes, the stats direct your eyes to look for something that you did not see first….

    You like RBI better than OBP?…me too!….so just say it.

    Look…I’m as arrogant as anyone about my own baseball knowledge, but the entire point of this is to have fun arguments. Why are you so upset?

  • Connor O’Brien

    LOL someone downvoted that. Thanks CA!

  • Hotstreak

    I did not do not down vote you or anybody else. If I disagree I will reply.

  • Hotstreak

    Down voting a thank you. SMH

  • Hotstreak

    Connor: I see your point: I over reacted. But I would use the word not aware or keep an open mind or this is how it helps a scout decide.

  • Hotstreak

    Connor:

    See my comment above on my overreaction. I personally despise the word in question.

    I feel a weighted average metrics is biased as no one could agree since the weighted metric is subjective. An unbiased stat like OPS with SLG% is fair. Lets discuss why you disagree.

    One clue you have to sell the metric used to the agent, SABR guys on other team for a trade etc. You can’t constantly tweak the weight UNLESS it is scientifically proven which is impossible.

    My response a runner on 2B is in scoring position. That is even worth twice the amount of a single.

  • dealingwithidiots

    Well then, if actually read it, and understood it, and still do not agree with it fine, but why would you read it AGAIN, do you really need to see your name in the comments just to be a nasty tough guy? Sad

  • Connor O’Brien

    The weighted metric is not subjective. It’s based on linear weights. No subjectivity at all. No one pulls those decimals out of thin air.
    And you can change the weight because the run environment changes year to year. A double might be more valuable one year than another based on speed of the league, fielding, etc.

    What you said about a runner in scoring position is far more subjective than wOBA. What makes you think that it’s worth twice as much? Is there data that proves that?

  • Hotstreak

    Connor: I meant to ask yo this. Win Probability Index intrigued me. Actually more for NBA and NFL. However IN MLB if in a tie game last of the ninth the lead off batter doubles rather than singles (speed not issue here nor arm of fielder) is the win probability twice that of a single. However maybe in top of first a double is not worth twice a single. However obviously late in games a sacrifice bunt comes in to play especially in last of ninth. What about “No doubles Defense.”