MMO Mailbag: How Can The Mets Get To 84 Wins?

An article by posted on November 18, 2013

sad mets bench

Nester asks…

Last season the Mets combined for a 29.1 fWAR which ranked 22nd among all MLB teams. If they are going to trade Daniel Murphy, combined with the losses of Marlon Byrd, John Buck and LaTroy Hawkins they would be losing almost a third of their entire team’s production for 2013. When you consider the loss of Matt Harvey and potentially Bobby Parnell that represents a total 14.2 of fWAR the Mets need to replace this offseason just to keep pace with 74 wins. How can the Mets replace all that production this offseason, let alone improve on last season?

Joe D. replies…

You just pointed out why David Wright is so valuable to this team, but to your point, it’s nearly impossible. One of my knocks on Sandy Alderson is that in three seasons he couldn’t add one MLB piece that would be already on board when the team was ready to contend again. He is essentially three years in and still building the MLB roster from scratch. Hopefully, Murphy and his 3.0 fWAR will still be here and that we’ll sign a bat who could replace Byrd’s 3.5 fWAR. After that, the Mets will be counting on players like Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares to step up considerably offensively.

There is no way we can replace an ace like Matt Harvey, but if we get modest improvement from Niese, Gee, and Wheeler, and bring in a couple of solid pitchers – and not just inning eaters incapable of tossing quality innings – we may come close to matching the 6.1 WAR that Harvey brought to the team.

This isn’t going to be easy to do and the Mets are going to need one heck of an offseason to see this team jump from 74 wins to 84 wins. It’s not impossible, but it does appear to be very unlikely… Especially if you equate WAR to wins.

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I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction and interact with other passionate Met fans like you. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.

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