Oct
13
2013

# Featured Post: The Mets Have A Duda Dilemma

Lucas Duda frustrates the hell out of me. I know he’s a saber and front office darling by virtue of his .352 on-base, but he’s an awful hitter whose getting worse at the plate instead of better. Honestly, I couldn’t care less about how many walks our clean-up hitter has, I want to see him hit and drive in runs.

In his last three seasons, Duda has seen his batting average decline to a career low:

2011 – .292

2012 – .239

2013 – .223

What’s worse is that Duda struck out in nearly a third (32.3 percent) of his at-bats, racking up a whopping 103 whiffs in the process. Sorry, but that is totally unacceptable – especially when you’re batting behind David Wright and getting a ton of fat pitches to hit. We’ve all grown accustomed to hearing Keith Hernandez moan whenever Duda takes a called strike three.

In addition to what I already pointed out, the thing that is most maddening about Duda is his suffocating presence at the plate with runners in scoring position. He has become the ultimate rally-killer, batting .145 (11-for-76) with RISP with 28 strikeouts this season. Those numbers are unsightly.

You would think that such a poor showing at the plate would motivate Duda to work on his hitting by playing Winter Ball this offseason. But according to Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, Duda has decided against that and will instead take the offseason off. See you next Spring…

At 28-years old, the odds-on favorite to be the Mets Opening Day first baseman has yet to play one full season in the majors. Duda has missed significant portions of the last two seasons after serving out a pair of minor league demotions that haven’t seemed to improve his batting average or strikeout rate one iota.

However, many will rave about that walk rate for this gentle giant of a man.

Good guy… Good walker… Terrible hitter…

For crying out loud, get Duda out of the middle of the order and bat him leadoff where he’ll do less damage… Let’s go out and get a couple of “legitimate, proven sluggers” to hit behind David Wright… Let’s get this damn show on the road… Let’s get this team moving in the right direction… Let’s get back to winning ballgames already… I’m sick of mediocrity… Fix my freaking team!

#### About the Author: Joe DeCaro

I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.

• Joe D. There should be no dilema. Duda needs to go.

• Agreed, what dilemma, Duda is not a major league player.

• He is just OK and not real good
DUDA, DUDA
He’d hit more out if only he could
OH A DUDA DAY.

• I’ll expand on that…..

He is just OK and not real good
DUDA, DUDA
He’d hit more out if he swing wood
all the DUDA DAY.
No more taking pitch?
If that don’t help then one thing left
make Hudgens go away!

• 70, 79, 77, 74, 74….. That’s the win totals for the past 5 years. That is NOT Mediocrity!!!!!

• This is a no-brainer. DFA.

• But he was walking a lot when he came back no….? FO begs to differ so FU whining ass Mets Fans who want to win… Screw you, Wins and Losses don’t matter..

• The Mets dont have a Duda dilemma they have a “GM Dilemma” he’s the bozo that wont give this team better options over Duda.

They already ruined Duda he has worn out his welcome in Citi….Although I wouldnt mind Duda as a power bat OFF THE BENCH/injury insurance.not a friggin starter

• I am not so sure he is a FO darling. They seemed to have no issue with demoting him and haven’t always had the nicest things to say about him in the media either. You have to wonder about his comments to close the year and his decision to not go to winter ball. My question is was that his decision or a team decision.

I am certainly not a big fan of any of our 1B options but at least at 1B we have options. As Sandy famously quoted, what OF? We still don’t have one. Time to go out and get an MLB RF.

• Yes, and just a few months ago when Francesa asked Sandy if Duda was a foundation type player, SA said he didn’t think so. If Ike hadn’t gotten hurt he wouldn’t have played much at all down the stretch. But we shouldn’t let a few inconvenient facts ruin the constant SA bashing narrative, now should we?

• Please, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

Duda was starting in LF over Andrew Brown, and was dumped as soon as EY came on board. He couldn’t even oust Ike Davis from 1B, with Ike embarrassing himself on a daily basis.

Not at all a front office darling. There just isn’t any real option that would make it easy to dump Ike. Satin can’t hit righties and doesn’t hit for enough power to profile as a fulltime 1B option.

If we go with a Duda/Satin platoon, it has to be because we spent on contracts for a new LF, RF, and SS.

• The best RBI guys are the ones who know how to hit a fly ball to get a run in or a grounder to the right side to advance a runner. It doesn’t take a perfect pitch to accomplish either one of those results. It seems to me Hudgens’ hitting philosophy 1) isn’t applicable to all hitters because they have different strengths, and 2) doesn’t stress being able to do a productive thing even with a less-than-perfect pitch. OBP isn’t the be-all and end-all. As we’ve seen, a number 4 or 5 hitter is better off not waiting for a perfect pitch, as long as he can find one which will allow less-than-perfect results, such as deep enough lazy fly ball with a runner on third, instead of always looking to hit that line drive. This philosophy seems to lack a “situational hitting” component. I just can’t understand why they keep rehiring him. If you keep striving for the “perfect” you reject the “good enough.” Strangely, I see similar advice in dating columns!

• The issue with Duda is NOT that he walks too much, it is that he does not hit well with RISP. Lou Gehrig hit behind Ruth and 11 times had over 100 walks. It also helps if you have a complete lineup and ther are hitters behind you.

• ” it is that he does not hit well with RISP”

• Lucas Duda has 1100 major league at bats. That’s a big enough sample considering he will be 28 before opening day. No dilemma at all… get rid of him.

• When duda first came up, I had him pegged as an all or nothing slugger, a guy who would strike out a ton and hut an occasional hr, like burnitz or Dunn.

I was surprised to see that instead he was a guy who frequently hit line drives up the middle, and even served a few into left.

But, as it was with Ike Davis, all that changed with dave Hudgens.

How many players have regressed with this approach?
The mets were terrible at moving runners over, getting runners in, making productive outs, coming up with clutch hits. In other words they don’t do any of the things that good offenses do to win games.

And they’re bringing the entire coaching staff back.

Unfriggingbellevable.

• THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS DID I SAY THIS

• The reason he isn’t hitting well with RISP is because he’s taking too many pitches!!! Remember the famous “clutch walk”? With RISP? Obviously if u can’t or won’t see this is because you believe in this stupid, stupid walk/on base pct philosoohy that is killing this team’s young talenye

• I enjoyed watching the A’s trying to work the count against Verlander last night.

• Lmao, Vinny… I was rooting HARDCORE for the Tigers last night, you notice there’s no talk of moneyball today? Ohh that’s right, all 4 teams in the CS are top 6 in payroll in all baseball Lmao…

• Actually I was rooting for the Tigers too. Granted originally I was rooting for the Pirates and Rays just to see Bud Selig throw the other foot into the grave and to see Marlon Byrd win. Of course my reasoning for the Tigers was different than you. I have a nephew that is a 6th grader a and a pretty good baseball player and loves the Tigers. We had a family tragedy and I found myself watching the game and having a moment.

• Oakland and Boston and Tampa are the poster children for moneyball. That why they made the playoffs.

What happens in the playoffs is random. The best team in the game is not the World Series winner, but the best regular season record. And those are generally teams run by rational stathead guys.

• Boston is s SABER team not a Moneyball team!

• Ok. Call them whatever. They used advanced metrics and have high obp players.

• No they have High RBI guys who just happen to get On Base while they are driving in runs!

• RBI is not a useful stat for individuals. I have explained this to you many, many times. It’s a team dependent stat. Guys will have lots of RBI if their teammates are on base. If their teammates have low obp they will not have so many RBI. This is because, as I have told you more than 20 times, RBI is not a useful stat to analyze individual players, like lucas duda. Duda gets on base plenty, and is a useful offensive player.

• Neither is OBP…See the subject of this article a guy named Lucas Duda!
Or try Luis Castillo you hated him too!

• here is the relevant stat. duda had a war of -.02 as a hitter. below replacement level despite the obp you so highly tout

that, plus that fact that he hits a buck fifty (.150) with risp makes him a useless offensive player, particularly as a #4 hitter. he is either the black hole of death in a lineup .. or he is a 6’5″ 250 lb leadoff hitter playing first. and you defend him. really bro?

• That’s not the way war works. Duda’s offense was 6.5 runs above average last year, add in the 11 run difference between average and replacement level and offensively Duda was +17 runs over replacement offensively in 2/3rd’s of the season. That’s well above average offensively. Unfortunately that value was wiped out playing in left-field which makes Duda a perfect candidate to play first where his glove is significantly better.

• You forgot the part about putting it in the Oven @ 350 Degrees for 20 Minutes until Golden Brown and Delicious!

If you have to go through ALL of those hoops just to make Duda seem like a good player then your really not all that interested in the truth!

• Moneyball is dead, there is no such thing anymore. Since everyone has taken up advanced statistics the areas that Oakland was able to exploit or gain advantage over are no longer there.

Oakland and Mets are a save money team. Oakland won;t do anything until they move to San Jose they are just lucky they have a good GM and scouting department so their farm system has gotten them far again. Beane knows damn well they can get over the hump unless they were allowed to spend 5 dollars but he can’t.

• Oakland made the playoffs. Why do you say they are not doing anything? Making the playoffs and having a good record is doing something.

• Really then I guess Omar did something in 2005-2008 too right?

• I have expressed no stance on Omar or those years or teams.

• You are not understanding my point. What Oakland did in 2002 is very different than what they are doing now. Yes, both areas had constrictions on payroll but for different reasons. Oakland’s ownership is doing everything to get out of Oakland. Beane would like to win but they have designed their roster in a way to be very flexible once moving day happens. So they do not wish to invest at all on the roster. So even though their payroll is up to 70m, next year they are only committed to 25. and the year after is like 12m. Yes they got Cespedes but that is really the only money that they have spent. MLB even came down on them a couple years ago for their lack of spending which benefited Coco Crisp greatly. Beane would if he could and the advantages that he had in 2002 implementing his statistical system are gone.

• You’re making the mistake of equating sabermetrics with moneyball. They’re not the same thing. Moneyball is purely about exploiting inefficiencies in the market, it’s a fundamental economic law being applied to sports. What tools are used to accomplish that is irrelevant. The current A’s roster is born out of trading arb eligable guys like Chris Carter (Lowrie), Gio (Norris, Milone) Harden (Donaldson), Cahill (Parker), and Bailey (Reddick).

By trading those players for prospects Beane gambled that the aquired prospects would graduate at the same time as his own. That’s moneyball.

• No the problem is MONEYBALLERS are doing that!

NOT SPENDING MONEY is the GOAL!

Statistical Analysis is about finding the best players not the cheapest!

And your example of trading away established performers for kids is not Moneyball…People have been doing that for years!
Long before 1995!

And you know what it never has worked!

• Salty….The problem the younguns like Martin have is they read the book and THOUGHT that OBP was what Sabers are all about!

They think OBP = SABERMETRICS
They think SABERMETRICS = MONEYBALL

They read the book but didn’t understand a WORD of it!

They follow the other guys like Tango who took the same WRONG lesson from the book!

And Why? Because they haven’t found the NEW UNDERVALUED METRIC!
Because all their Metrics are based around OBP!

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/r-i-p-moneyball.html

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/r-i-p-moneyball-part-ii-the-undervalued-stat.html

• If you would like to make up points of view for each other that is fine, and it reminds me of that time you said you think black people are stupid.

• Yeah that exactly what I expected from a kid who can’t answer because he knows he fits EXACTLY what I said in those articles!

• Yes, he has gotten worse since he came up and as a power hitter looking for walks, it is absurd. Bad philosophy for him and probably would be better off having a team with system that lets him be aggressive. He probably would be better off in Colorado or Boston.

• Boston has the highest obp in the league. That why they win.

• I am old school, not all these other stats. How is the OBP of 4 and 5 hitters on Boston? I do not know.

• All teams that score lots of runs have high obp players in the middle of the lineup.

Some teams have high RBI players in the middle of the lineup but don’t score many runs as a total team because some RBI guys have a low obp which crushes the offense.

In theory a player can lead the team in RBI while destroying the offense. This has been done many times, by players like Ruben Sierra and Jeff francouer.

• NO your wrong…all those teams have HIGH RBI guys in the MIDDLE of their order that drove in runs!

LIKE these low OBP teams….
Blue Jays and Reds in 2011
Blue Jays, Tampa and Phillies in 2010
Twins Mets in 2008 (Note the RS of the Cards that year!)
Angels Rangers and Indians 2007
Blue Jays Tigers in 2006

Plus EVERY OTHER LEADER in the top 10 of RS in those years!

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/does-ops-correlate-better-to-runs-scored-than-rbi.html

• Also helps when the lineup is made up correctly. 1 and 2 set the table, 3-7 best hitter to run producers. Unlike us who had outs in most spots in order.

• You need to accept that a high obp player is objectively good for the offense.

• Joe, honestly you should read more books on how offense works. A player with the ops that duda has is good for the offense, period. Any disagreement is purely based on ignorance of how baseball works, and can be solved by heading to your local library and checking out some books on how runs are acored.

• offense works when runs are scored. i believe everything has its place, however if you are hitting in the 4 or 5 spot with runners … guess what, its your JOB to bring them home.

duda simply doesnt do that ,, he also doesnt score runs so the people behind him arent picking him up either.

to say that lucas duda is an asset to an offense is frankly offensive.

• Again, players that have a high obp cause the offense to score runs. This is a fact that you are apparently not aware of. You. An chose to not be ignorant and accept what I am telling you, or not, and fail to understand the game.

An offensive player can have lots of RBI while being an awful drain on the offense. The way to do this is to make lots of outs, which layers with a high obp are not doing.

• i am going to take a minute here and allow the child to teach me.

martin, tell me specifically how duda helped the offense score runs. his runs scored? his homers (all solo)? his aver with risp? his superior speed or defensive capability?

show me, teach me boy.

• when i say show me i mean by numbers not words.

• Players that do not make outs benefit the offense. You only get 27 outs a game and high obp players use less of the outs. This scores runs and tires opposing pitchers, who are desperate to make outs and throw as few pitches as possible.

• I got news for you buddy you can’t bat .230 or whatever duda batted without making a lot of outs, he sucks, accept it get a real first basemen and move on.NEXT.

• Players who do not make an out but do not score have NO benefit compared to a guy who DOES make an out but drives in a RUN and gets the RBI!

• Those types of fans are nauseating. They are in love with one number as the end-all-be-all of baseball.

On Base Percentage is nice, but when your lineup is utterly devoid of power, it becomes meaningless.

Lucas Duda sucks $hit. He can hit mistakes a mile and nothing else. DFA the clown. • duda hit .154 with risp. help me understand how that helped the offense score runs. this is the second time i am asking. also, duda make 313 outs in 459 plate appearances. show me how hat level of productivity helped the offense. one last thing. 8% of runners on base scored with doo doo at the plate. thats pathetic. 18/228. how did this help the offense score? • Duda, Davis, and Satin I’m going to be sick! This is Sandy’s in house solution so he can save money and go all out for Choo! NOT there not going to spend$100,000,000 on any player
over 30 except Wright! Go all out to sign Abreu for $60,000,000 for five years and trade or dump the big three instead! • You’ve been on point lately Joe D! • Going on the radio and slamming Duda is hardly showing that he is a darling. Not to mention burying him in the minors in 2012 and 2013. The expectation was that Ike Davis would be part of the core not Duda, but he fell off the face of the earth after hitting 30+ HR and driving in 90. If the Wilpons are making$30 million available this offseason then it isn’t possible to get a SS, OF, SP, and 1B. We’re lucky to get 2 good players with that money. 1B is the place where we at least have a couple of guys to roll the dice with. Even Murph can move there.

Of course, if they love Abreu and think he’ll put up 25-30 HR and be a good hitter too then that can change things, but I certainly don’t know what he’ll do. Never seen him play.

• Duda is NOT now an of the bench ANYTHING… Successful Pinch Hitters, especially power and punch guys, are AGGRESSIVE…as are RBI guys in General. In Fact, most good Hitters learn to temper aggression—they are not typically guys who need to learn to be aggressive.

Duda is a guy who arrived THINKING TOO MUCH…and he’s been encouraged to Think even more. I saw potential—he could use an escape from the Mets and some permission/prodding to Just go Swing Your Bat!

• While Duda has decent enough stats, the problem is that no pitcher is scared of him and he can be pitched to in a tight spot. He usually does well when the opposing pitcher isn’t concentrating as much when the game has been decided.

Duda is a nice Quadruple A 1bman who can be kept around as insurance if the real 1b is injured. He’s certainly not the 1bman of the next Mets playoff team.

At least with Ike there’s still a chance for a big power bat to be inside somewhere – as unlikely it may be to happen in a Met uniform.
Duda is what he is. With the upside of, well, Duda.

• It’s pure joy seeing Oakland and Tampa Bay sent home early and the big name, big contract STAR studded teams advance!!

• Do you also like watching six years olds lose close fights to twelve year olds? Especially after the six year olds had already beaten a few of twelve year olds in a year long fight.

• How can you equate children fighting each other to the MLB playoffs?

• It’s a joke about powerful favorites going up against underfunded underdogs. Would you prefer Wallmart vs. Your neighbor’s mom and pop store?

• I get the point you were trying to make, but that was just a bad analogy.

If the guy who owns my neighbor’s mom and pop store is egotistical person who has books and Hollywood films made about him, and also has legion of misguided fans calling him an innovative genius when he is not, then I hope he falls flat on his face too.

So go Tigers!

.

• Beane is just a very good GM. But fact is, both the A’s and the Rays have done a very good job with their very limited resources over the years.

As for the 2012 & 2013 A’s, it’s often mentioned how they were assembled via trades and not via the draft. While that is correct, it took them 5 years of non-contention between 2007 and 2011 to rebuild after their ” Moneyball” era. And most of the trades involved trading away young major leaguers, several of them acquired in the draft or earlier trades. It’d be somewhat similar to the Mets trading Niese, Gee, Parnell, Murphy, maybe even Harvey for prospects now – in hopes of being able to contend in 2015 and beyond. Don’t think anyone is proposing that.

• Oakland and TB would have a ratings disaster, it’s good for baseball that Boston and Detroit advanced in more ways than one

• That is weird the two highest obp teams advanced in the playoffs.

• You mean the THREE highest RBI teams advanced in the playoffs!

• RBI are generated by players getting on, and being on base.

• No they are generated by the guy with the bat in his had who isn’t on base at the time they are created!

A guy who is on base has ZERO INFLUENCE ON FUTURE GAME EVENTS!

He is just passively waiting for something to happen that lets him do something!

• I will only explain this to you again if you ask nicely.

• I’ll ask you nicely don’t just shut up we have already heard your dumb statistical beliefs and have proved no team that subscribes to your moneyball OBP approach has EVER won a World Series!

This after 25 years!

• This season Boston has fewer hits than Detroit, and a worse batting average. But they have a higher obp, and that is why they have scored significantly more runs.

• Duda is a 4 a player who couldn’t hack it n should hav 2 pack it. Ike has a high ceiling so I understand investing time but this guy should be on some bad American League team. We hav 2 do away with the aaaa players.

• When he said at the end of season he thought he did enough to be the 1b n itwas up management I almost fell off my chair. It makes you wonder what he thinks bad play looks. He had a streak of like 1-45 this year. Duda, this isn’t golf u don’t want the lowest score.

• Let’s put this nicely. There are A LOT of problems with the Mets. Lucas Duda, quite frankly, isn’t one of them. Which “legitimate, proven sluggers” are available for the Mets to acquire? The Blue Jays say that Jose Bautista is available. You want to trade Syndergaard for a soon to be 33-year-old? Debateable. I would trade him for CarGo or Tulo, but neither of those two are on the market. Choo and Ellsbury both represent upgrades over Duda, but you get one of those two, and there’s still a third OF position to fill and 1B too, both places Duda can play. Duda was one of 5 Mets batters who were above league average hitters at their positions this season (by wRC+, amongst players with >200 PA).

I feel like he gets miscast as a cleanup hitter. In all honesty, I’d rather see him hitting leadoff (as Jared Diamond suggested early in the season) or second before I’d put him in the cleanup spot, which should be reserved for Wright and only Wright. I’m not necessarily saying “bat him leadoff”, but he’s more suited for that role than he is to hit cleanup.

Also, I have no idea where you got that 32.3% K-rate for Duda. His K% was 26.6% this year, and his career rate is 23.5%. I’m not sure if you just did the math wrong or what, but a simple trip to Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference shows that that’s wrong.

• for the luxury of having a slow 6’5″ 250 lb leadoff #2 hitter, you would need barry bonds in lf and frank robinson in right for chance to get him around the bases to score.

• When you DISMISS all the GOOD choices because of an OVER SCROOGNESS of MONEY….

Your left with two less and undesirable choices!

Limit your option to just working with crap your going to have to decide which crap tastes better!

• “However, many will rave about that walk rate for this gentle giant of a man.”

Who actually does that? Because I’m pretty sure that while everyone here agrees that not making an out is important, Duda is a power guy. No one wants any player, let alone a 230 lb lumbering DH, to go up looking for a walk.

There’s enough to complain about without building strawmen.

• Historically arguments are a lot easier to demolish when they’re made out of straw.

• RBI is team dependent in that the entire team us depending on the RBI guy to drive them in so they can WIN the game!! RBI is a physical, athletic act that requires skill and real ability. Walking is not a skill especiallykwhen most of the time it’s the pitchers fault for being wild.

Any talentless bum can have a good eye and walk but if you want to win you need good hitters who swing the bat to drive in players on base that are only doing what they were taught to do at 6 years old. You inly consider obp when,looking at leadoff,hitters and that isn’t a given either

• That’s why they say RBI is team dependent because the entire team is depending on the hitter to drive them in. The actual success is dependant on having Runs Batted In otherwise yoy lose even though team obp goes up. Relying in OBP to build a team is the most dumbest and destructive concept to ever poison the Mets. Good hittets will usually always have good obp. Boston is successful offensively because they have hard nosed, hustling good HITTERS 1-3 and Big Papi having a good year driving in runs. If the middle of the order is not driving in runs then everybody can get in base from here to eternity you will lose.

There are people who think Ike and Duda had good year cuz of their obp and if that isn’t the perfect example of why relying on obp is a grave mistake then I dont’t know what is

• ^^^^^^^^^

• A team with high obp that doesn’t score many runs does not exist.

Team obp correlates with runs scored. That’s why Boston leads the league in runs and obp, but not batting average.

• 2010 Phillies
2008 Mets

Yet the Detroit Tigers of 2006 had the 6th WORSE OBP and yet were 8th in RS!

So much for OBP and RS correlation….

NOTE the RBI of all those teams mentioned said they SHOULD BE in the top 10 of RS!

Because this is how RBI correlates compared to OBP….

Note the Tightness of the Statistical Mapping!

• I told you a million times but you never lists. RBI is not useful for analyzing individual players. Obp is useful for analyzing players because it will lead to the team RBI and runs scored which are basically the same team stat.

• And we told YOU a Million times…
It is MUCH BETTER than OBP if the goal is to increase RS!

• Again, RBI is not useful for analyzing individual players, as it is team and opportunity dependent. Your point about team RBI is useless and shamefully stupid.

Can you understand what my first sentence meant? Do you understand what I mean by RBI being team and opportunity dependent? For example do you see how a poor player could make lots of RBI by being healthy and batting 5th every day in a lineup with high obp guys? Do you also see how his RBI count would be actually mean he was not being as productive as he should be?

I expect that you will understand none of what I said.

• And Again…it’s MORE USEFUL than OBP is!
OBP says Lucas Duda is a GREAT PLAYER!

He is not!

And the reason no one understands what you keep saying is because what your saying is WRONG!
And we are not dumb enough to buy into or understand WRONG THINKING!

• You are not making an argument.

RBI is a team stat.

Do you understand, for example, why a pitcher with a losing record can be better than an undefeated one if he has a 2 era and the in ing pitcher has a six era?

Do you understand how pitching wins, while applied to a pitcher, is actually a team dependent stat?

Try to understand that and then try to see why RBI is also team dependent.

I have said it maybe 25 times, RBI is not a useful individual stat.

Now it’s to the point where you are so stupid I am bored by you, and can barely be bothered to explain the same simple points to you endlessly.

• Do you understand that if David Wright hits a SOLO HR he gets an RBI with NO HELP FROM THE TEAM?

Do YOU understand that MORE THAN 20% of all RBI in the MLB is from the guy who HIT the HR before we have even counted how many guys got driven in BECAUSE he hit that ball over the wall?

YOu understand NOTHING MARTIN…You just BELIEVE!

And NO ONE BELIEVES what a 13 year old does in this regard….
Except other teenagers!

• Good point, wright can quadruple his RBI count if his teammates get on base. Finally you are starting to see why RBI is a team stat and basically useless for individuals. A hr can be worth one or 4, but it doesn’t have to travel farther or be hit harder, it only matters if the players are getting on base.

• Still dancing away from the truth I see…

RS is a TEAM DEPENDENT STAT!

It RELIES on those guys who have the RBI to score! 95% of all RS is CAUSED BY AN RBI!

RBI is a PERSONAL ACHIEVEMENT!
RS is NOT!

And sure Wright would have 4 times the RBI if more guys got on base but the guys who get on base would have a 100% DROP IN RS without David Wright driving them in!

• HERE is your Homework for the day Martin….

HOW MANY RBI would David Wright have last year if NO ONE ELSE on the team got on base?

HOW MANY RS would anyone on this team have if NO ONE got an RBI?

Then tell me which one is more TEAM DEPENDENT than the other!

• To be clear, in your scenario, does david wright get on base in both scenarios, or just the first?

Or are you asking me to compare zero hits to the exact same scenario except david wright gets on base. I will take the scenario where wright gets on base because getting on base is important.

• What does David wright getting on base have to do with the questions involving TEAM DEPENDENCE?

Feigning it was UNCLEAR when it was as CLEAR AS DAY and you wish it wasn’t because I left you NO ROOM to Muddle and Fidge your answer….But I’ll rephrase it for you….

HOW MANY RBI would Wright have if NO OTHER TEAMMATE got on base?

(and now I’ll ADD to it just as punishment for your avoidance)

HOW MANY RBI would the mets have AS A TEAM if NO ONE ELSE was ON BASE when a HR was hit by anyone?

HOW MANY RS would the Mets have if we had ZERO RBI

Then tell me which is the more TEAM DEPENDENT stat OBP or RBI?

• The purpose and the value of predicting Runs Scored is to build a roster (and lineup) to maximize your offense.

Just as Point After Touchdown (attempts) are directly CAUSED by. . . . . Touchdowns

By definition Runs are directly CAUSED by ….. RBI

Therefore neither has predictive value and no statistician will ever use that in analysis. Directly.

They will use advanced Runs Created formulas or OPS or wOba to get the job done.

Don’t play his games. You won. Move on,

• I know.

It fascinates me that people are so ridiculous and impervious to simple explanations

• What fascinates me is how two kids who think they KNOW IT ALL can’t answer a simple question as the one I posed without trying to change it or muddle the question in an attempt to AVOID giving what is a clear cut answer here!

And I’ll wait till you two try and dance away from the questions again (like you did with the Braves game so long ago) before I actually GIVE YOU the answer and show you for the fools you keep playing yourselves to be!

• Metsie is your point that wright has far fewer RBI when his teammates have poor obp? I know that’s my point wrights RBI total are not a function of his own hitting but his team. That what I have been trying to explain to you for years. Is this the breakthrough we have waited for? You finally understand?

• No my point is WHAT IS MORE DEPENDENT ON TEAM!

You know FULL WELL what My point is your just trying to evade answering because you know if you answer the questions TRUTHFULLY you see the RBI is NOT DEPENDENT on ANYONE but the guy with the Bat in his hands

Wright has more RBI AND RS just from himself (NO Other team contribution counted) than we have RS that DID NOT REQUIRE an RBI to score!

Do the same thing for every player on the team who hit HRs and it is a LANDSLIDE!

OBP is DEPENDENT on TEAM GETTING RBI to CREATE RS!

RBI does NOT need any TEAM OBP to create RS!

• Metsie cheers to you for fooling me for so long. You clearly are not serious and have been messing with me.

• Running away from the question…So Typical of Martin when he gets backed into a corner!

If you can’t answer a simple question why should anyone think you know enough to pay attention to ANYTHING you say?

I will take you refusal to answer the questions posed as your ADMITTING that I am right!

RBIs are NOT team dependent for RS but OBP IS!

Now you will have to work twice as hard to come up with some new distorted and wrong way to dismiss RBI from being correlated!

• If Duda and Satin platoon at first they will do just fine.

Spend the big bucks to get two outfielders, I suggest Byrd and Beltran.

Trade young pitching for a young shortstop such as Owing or Gregorius.

I would however offer Murphy (3B), Niese and Walters to the Cards for Adams and Wong, but that might not be enough. They don’t have a left handed starter and they need a third baseman.

• I think Adams could be a DH in waiting with his size in a couple of years but I think Wong could be wight… errr. right for us. Sorry, had to do it.

• Duda is an idiot. Hudgens or not, if you’re waiting for him to get better, you’re wasting your own time. The fact that he thinks he’s deserving of a starting job is laughable.

While you’re at it, rip into Ike too.

• He’s not great, and yet he’s one of the best hitters on the team. Wright … maaaaybe Murphy … and who else?

Duda isn’t the Mets’ problem.

“getting a ton of fat pitches to hit”

This is baseless.

• not if you actually saw him bat 100 times in 2013.

• If he was one of the best hitters on the team, that should drive the point home how crappy the offense was this season. Duda sucks.

• No argument on that one, Hitman. Sucks overstates it, but he shouldn’t be a cornerstone of your offense.

• Duda’s philosophy at the plate sucks. We have top of the order guys that don’t walk much and a cleanup guy that is always looking for walks since management loves OBP…..Forget every other stat and focus on RBI and Runs Scored. Scoring more runs than the other guy wins games…everything else is fantasy baseball

• Joe, D I think that if Duda has truly decided not to play winter ball, after the lousy ML season he had, you won’t have to put up with him next year. He has little or no trade value, and I think the Mets will give Ike, the guy they spent a first round pick on, another chance at 1B.

And Satin will hit against “tough lefties.”

• I agree, I might be the minority here but I think the 1B of the Mets should be Davis because at least he has shown he can hit 30+ home runs and can hit homers with men on base and Duda very very rarely does do that.

• Duda and Davis are both the princes of potential. There come a time where you have to turn the page on unrealized potential and cut bait. I have no objection to keep either or both as backups or AAA starter but we can’t go into the season allowing our starter at 1b to flounder for half the year with no viable alternative

• If Duda gets on the right team and they just tell him hey big fella see the ball hit the ball he will hit 40+ home runs…the mets hitting coaches mind f*ck these guys into take take take pitches and they get in bad hitters counts and strike out or walk.

• I honestly have no idea how anyone could consider this clown the “odds on favorite” to be the firstbaseman next year. I understand pessimism, but that’s just over the top. I doubt Duda remains on the team past January.

• Duda is not a clean-up hitter simply because clean-up hitters are expected to drive in runs and he does not do that. Duda is not a lead off or #2 hitter simply because they are expected to have speed and he does not. Duda is not a #3 because they are expected to hit for average with power and he does not do that. Duda is not a #5 or 6 because they are expected to keep rallies going by driving in players and he does not do that. Duda can be a #7 or 8 because he can keep an inning alive by drawing a walk. So he needs to be much further down the lineup than what has been considered. If he is deployed in that manner, he is essentially a 1B kept on the roster for defensive purposes (questionable his defense is actually that good). That is quite a luxury for a team as you generally keep either a catcher or s/s for that reason but not a 1B. So I conclude Duda is a luxury that a marginal at best team like the Mets cannot afford. If you want to keep him as a bench player OK, but that’s all he is. Best solution: simply get rid of him please. The mantra of emphasizing obp via walks to wear down pitchers and put fear in their hearts is flawed. Opposing pitchers in the majors (not peewee ball) love batters who don’t swing the bat because the pitchers can work the count too and strike their butts out by dazzling them with pitch diversification. Duda is the best weapon for the opposing team because he weakens our lineup and helps our team to be a laughingstock. What we really need is a new FO and coaching staff so that we can move beyond the mantra of taking pitches and fighting for walks in order to play base to base to base baseball and instead bring some speed and power onto this team so we can drive the ball and advance multiple bases at a time. That will only happen when SA and his cohorts are gone. But unfortunately, the Wontpons like it this way because they don’t have to spend a plug nickel to field a lame team. If only we could pick up just one genuinely good field player per year for the next 5 years, we can eventually have a contender. But that’s too much to ask with this FO.

• Five year plan to achieve a competitive team:
Year 1 – Obtain a premier s/s while allowing d’Arnaud an additional year to prove whether he is of major league caliber.
Year 2 – If d’Arnaud proves he is a bust, obtain a premier catcher, otherwise obtain a premier OF’er.
Year 3 – If 1B remains unsolved as of this late date, obtain a premier 1B, otherwise obtain a premier OF’er.
Year 4 – Obtain a premier OF’er.
Year 5 – Obtain a premier Of’er.
During these 5 years, the pitching staff is nurtured with players already on the roster and supplemented as needed from the minor league system (Montero, Syndergaard, Leathersich, etc., etc.).

If we follow that simple outline, we can have a competitive team before 2020 rolls around. As things are going now, we will NEVER have a competitive team. One premier player per year for 5 years and we will finally be in the post-season. Otherwise, forget it!

• As we move forward towards 2020, which current field players do we return? Answer: Wright, Murphy, and one (and only one) from the following list: Legares, den Dekker, Kirk, or Young. Give d’Arnaud one year to prove himself. Retain 3 players (or 4 players if d’Arnaud proves himself) and replace all the rest including the bench players. Manage the pitching between those already on the staff and those developing in the minor league system. Unless the starting field players are fundamentally revamped, we will never see post-season play again. Whatever happened to meaningful games in September? Oh yeah, new FO first so we can actually follow a logical and effective plan to elevate our team.

• OMG! What is the freakin dilemma? Duda sucks….Im combining two responses from 2 posts on this site; being comfortable with the Satin/Duda platoon at 1st…How long before Satin is exposed for who he really is….A bench player… We need quality major league players, not AAAA players in a platoon..This is not the 80′s and 90s…Teams are stacked and we have nobody on this team besides Wright…If the Mets do not at least place a bid on Abreu they are stupid…Cerrone already spinning his on the payroll/company line response to the Mets not making a bid and Abreu being all offense/not worth the \$ etc.

If they do not upgrade, Citi field will be a ghost-town and me and my idiot friends will be the only people there.

• Duda math. He comes cheap. Lousy, but cheap!

• I wish I was at citi with you, I live in tampa, fl.. but yes duda sucks , getting on base is great if you have speed and bat at the top , a lumbering non – slugger is not worth a dime standing on first base.

• martin keeps discussing obp as the end all stat and ends his discussion by stating that high obp teams score runs.
and he is correct there is a high correlation between team obp and team runs scored.
however, the strongest correlation is between team slugging percentage and team runs scored.

if necessary i will post the numbers (or you can look them up yourself) but my point is without power and hitting at an acceptable level with risp, obp matters much less because there is no one with the testicular fortitude (duda) to actually drive them in.

this is ultimately why duda sucks. his job is to drive in runs, which he cannot do. situational hitting is an under acknowledged skill that i have not seen properly measured.. trust me, lucas would be at the bottom of the list of good situational hitters as well.

lets cut bait, we have seen enough.

• Actually Kevin….

I did a piece that compared the correlation of OBP, SLG, OPS and RBI!

RBI was the winner EVERY YEAR!

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/does-ops-correlate-better-to-runs-scored-than-rbi.html

And if you click on my name you get this link to a chart that shows how well RBI correlates compared to OBP…

• Kevin, this has been analyzed by mathemeticians. Here is one article:

http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~bvollmay/baseball/runs1.html

And a quick summary why using the power of numbers one can predict INDIVIDUAL player contribution to Runs Scored. Bottom line you want your team to SCORE RUNS so you assemble those PLAYERS who help you achieve that…

Here’s what they said:
So what? If we want to know a team’s runs scored, why not just look their runs scored? The reason is because we want to understand which stats tell us about individual players’ contribution to runs scored. Some individual stats like runs scored or RBI are ignored by modern analyists, because they depend too strongly on things beyond a player’s control (if only Harry Chadwick had only introduced RBI divided by RBI opportunity…). But BA and OBP and so on are largely under a player’s control. If we find one of these truly individual stats to correlate very well with team runs scored, then we can have some confidence that we can use this stat to assess the individual’s contribution to the team.

(ops has highest correlation to runs scored)

• And Note kevin how Captain America’s research looked at every Metric EXCEPT the one that is CORRECT and correlates BEST to RS than any other!

RBI!

Compare my RBI chart to those of CA’s mathematician!

The problem with Math isn’t that Math gets the wrong answer it’s that it is easy to ASK the wrong question and IGNORE the right one and think you found something worth posting!

Did you know that Teams with Blue or Red in their uni have more WS series wins than teams without Blue or Red in their Uniform?

Does having a Blue or Red Uni make you better?
According to the way these guys do math it does!

But the truth is the reason why the math comes out the way it does is because More teams have Blue or Red in their Uniform than have other colors!

So they made the COLOR significant when the truth is the Color had NOTHING TO DO with the WS Wins at all!

But their Math says it is PROVED!

Teams with a lot of RBI also tend to have a high OBP and SLG and OPS….
Probably good in a LOT of different stats!

But the runs are scored by the RBI and the RBI requires a little more than JUST the smaller stats they get counted as while CREATING that RBI!

• Thank you for your sense of humor.

Please submit your findings to all the analysis sites and see if anyone publishes it.

Maybe send it to your local college and alma mater.

Feel free to share their feedback.

• My findings were posted RIGHT HERE at MMO!

So far no one has been able to DISPROVE that RBI Correlates better than all the stats you guys claim are more important and correlates BEST to RS!

So go tell your Mathematicians to ADD RBI to their research and see if they can’t find some way to prove me wrong….

Until then this OBP Fanaticism has been proved to be FOLLY, WRONG, BAD SCIENCE!

• Please submit your findings to all the analysis sites and see if anyone publishes it.

Maybe send it to your local college and alma mater.

Feel free to share their feedback.

• No Your the one who needs to find the answer you can use to say I’m wrong…

SO YOU submit it!
I have my answer, It was posted here!

Now you go get your Analysis geeks to prove my RBI doesn’t correlate better than what they think correlates best!

Knock yourself out there Honey!
FIND the answer and SCRIPT that none of you OBPeons have been able to come up with TWO YEARS AFTER THAT ARTICLE WAS POSTED!!!!!!!!!!!

Been there and up forTWO WHOLE YEARS and yet you STILL can’t find the explanation of why RBI does NOT correlate better than OBP does!

• If you are so certain you have cracked the code, please share your findings on all the baseball analysis sites and major academic institutions.

You must be proud of your work. So do it.

Please come back with the experts feedback.

• I DID share my fndings to ignorant little woman!

RIGHT HERE!

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/does-ops-correlate-better-to-runs-scored-than-rbi.html

You want a second opinion feel free!

Let us know what you come up with….
And further posts from you asking me to do something YOU WANT DONE will be reported to JoeD as BAITING and TROUBLEMAKING!

• Do you find it acceptable to insult more than half of the population by degrading women?

• Any female posters care to share how metsie’s comment makes them feel?

• I didn’t degrade all Women just YOU!

And truth is I shouldn’t have used the word WOMAN because 12 Year Olds are still JUST KIDS!
Not Women!

• however, that was not the case for 2013. see baseball-reference for the numbers.

all i am saying is that judging a player by numbers is an incomplete evaluation.

under no circumstances was duda a productive major league player last year, obp and ops+ be damned. i know what my eyes showed me and the peripheral stats (18/238 runners driven in, .145 ba risp) bear out my observations.

i asked Martin to show me numberically how duda was productive (going from the general to the specific) i have yet to see any supporting data.

• the data is 13 – 18 years old in that study.

• Neither OBP nor slugging percentage have the highest correlation among relevant stats. wOBA is better than both.

• and STILL not as good as RBI!

• It’s also still not as good as the number you get when you add up every player’s run scored and multiply it by 0.95…

• Lets develop the most accurate formula that correlates to wins.

• How many “Multiply by .95′s” get recorded in the average game Connor?

Really you kids think your going to teach us and THIS is what you come up with as replies to defend your proven wrong position?

• Clearly you didn’t understand what I said.

It was a joke about RBI. (RBI make up 95% or all runs scored, hence the *0.95.)

• Well the JOKE is on you!

I now have you stating the PROOF that 95% of all RS is CAUSED by an RBI!

A stat you choose to IGNORE when LOOKING for ways to get more RS!
Less than 20% of all OB scores!
And 20+ % of all RBI is just from the guy who hit the HR regardless of anyone else being on base at the time!

Thank you for making my point YET AGAIN in a post you thought was Snarky and Clever!

• The proof is in the name itself.

A “Run Batted In.”

In other words it is “a run which has been batted in,” making it a type of run scored.

• BATTED IN

A point seemingly LOST on anyone younger than 17!

• And like I stated more than 20% of the time NO ONE ON BASE when it happens!

• Connor, how does it make you feel when Metsie demeans you because of your age?

And think about what he is saying. Besides the insults. And attacks.

Players with more RBI are more valuable. So on the Angels, Mark Trumbo is more valuable than Mike Trout.

• Actually connor is schooling you.

Your first failure is that Statisticians do not try and correlate two variables that have a direct causal relationship.
- As Connor explained, and you know RUNS Batted In causes Runs Scored

Your second failure is simply ranking team RBIs and team runs and other categories to just show how the ranking compared.
- if there was not a direct causual relationship and you were analyzing the correlation you would provide a score for each variable from 0-1 to see which was the greatest predictor of runs scored.
- you also could have showed how close on the overall mlb league level the results are

So by simply attacking, demeaning or threatening people that does not prove you are correct. Rather it just shows you never learned the Golden Rule.

• Hi Connor,

You are forgetting one thing. In stats, you are trying to get a more perfect answer.

Baseball is an imperfect game because it is played by human beings who are imperfect people and thus no matter what, the stats themselves do not prove the human insight as to how to best utilize the strengths and weaknesses of each player despite of those imperfections.

Frank Francisco is the best example for two reasons. One, the Mets acquired him to be a closer when it was apparent from his past performances that he was better suited for the later innings but not the final one.

The second goes back to Bill James failed experiment with the Red Sox of a decade ago when he convinced them to use their best reliever not as closer but when the game might really be on the line earlier on. Problem was that James was going by stats and not by what both Mitch Williams and Dennis Eckersley recently spoked about on MLB Network. They agreed, pitching the ninth was a lot less pressurizing and easier to do. But that it also took a certain type of mindset to pitch the ninth which pitchers need to have. They cited Robertson of the Yankees who does great in the seventh and eighth but not in the ninth. He is simply not prepared “mentally” to deal with that type of situation.

That is why James’ theory failed. Yes, the game itself is indeed more on the line earlier in the contest but few relievers are actually able to shoulder the burden of coming into the ninth to do the job, hence, not to put one’s closer who might be the team’s best reliever in any other type of role.

That is something one might learn from studying the stats afterwards but a situation one did not have to create beforehand by trying to interpret something from them.

That’s the point. The intangibles. Too much missing.

• And now I’ll school the two of you on what STATISTICIANS DO!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that a correlation between two variables does not necessarily imply that one causes the other.[1][2] Many statistical tests calculate correlation between variables. A few go further and calculate the likelihood of a true causal relationship; examples are the Granger causality test and convergent cross mapping.

What you and Connor (and the other OBPeons) are doing is known as:
cum hoc ergo propter hoc

The counter assumption, that correlation proves causation, is considered a questionable cause logical fallacy in that two events occurring together are taken to have a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for “with this, therefore because of this”, and “false cause”. A similar fallacy, that an event that follows another was necessarily a consequence of the first event, is sometimes described as post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”).

We know RBI is NOT a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc Because it is FACT that a runner On Base CAN NOT DO ANYTHING unless some action is started by someone else. He can’t steal a base or advance without a defensive decision/mistake or a batter putting the ball in play! Those two acts are the ONLY TWO WAYS a player ON BASE can advance!

There are also cases where Causation DOES NOT result in CORRELATION as well!

http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/causation-without-correlation-is-possible/

But in this case there is CAUSATION and CORRELATION!

DIRECT CORRELATION YES!

Because your talking about a stat/act that is awarded based on your DRIVE IN A RUN that without the batter or defensive help WOULD NOT SCORE!

And you want to see how well your OBP works? Well here is PROOF your THEORY and RESEARCH is a SHAM!
Here look at REAL WORLD RESULTS….

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201305030.shtml

Who WON that game? The team with the higher OBP?
Or the one who had the most RBI?

• What will be your next revelation? The best way to predict touchdowns is to look at Points After Touchdowns?

• That Captain America will get herself Banned before the Season is over!

Whats the matter you didn’t like the SCIENTIFIC DEFINITION of your BAD SCIENCE?

• The sarcasm with PAT’s correlated with TD’s gives me a good analogy on OBP vs. RBI’s.

getting on base and better yet getting RISP position equals getting in the red zone.

getting a clutch hit with RISP equals getting a FG or touchdown

getting a walk is like getting a 10 yard advance due to a penalty.

getting a PAT is what you get after hitting a homer.

• Hi Metsie,

Hey, I thought I had dibs on that causation does not imply correlation stuff – ya know, just to make me look intellectual LOL.

• Yes Joey you can still own it but I did want to point out to the kiddies that there is even a LATIN NAME for what they are trying to do with OB being the driver of an event it can’t possibly cause!

• Connor, I ask you to respond and provide on PIT/PA the correlation to both of each OBP and RS.

Just the STATS man and nothing but the STATS.

Here is my previous post recapped.

Hotstreak October 12, 2013 at 1:14 am
Hi Joey D.

Go to link early in the morning October 3rd I think my first post on PIT/PA was 1:52 A.M.

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/10/you-can-only-sell-the-future-for-so-long.html

“You Can Only Sell The Future For So Long” see this thread

I owe you guys a Fanshot post.If I get time will do a fanshot post. On October 2nd / 3rd showed the guts of may position

This shows correlation by chance

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/10/26/2513194/are-patient-hitters-better-hitters

As to Metsie saying OBP and Pit/PA are not correlated I mentioned that: The above link proves it. The author did a great job Bill Petti  @BillPetti on Oct 26 2011, 8:30a

Note .56 R2 Pit/PA to OBP that is a little better than flipping a coin The poor correlation is chance. In social sciences .70 R2 or correlation is accepted. In business and finance and science .90 R2 is accepted.

Hotstreak October 12, 2013 at 1:21 am
My summary post was Oct 3rd 3:42 A.M. in above MMO link which I provide again.

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/10/you-can-only-sell-the-future-for-so-long.html

Hotstreak October 12, 2013 at 1:22 am
Actually my first post in above link was 1:11 AM October 3r

• from wiki
wOBA (or weighted on-base average)
In 2008, sabermetrics website FanGraphs began listing the current and historical wOBA for all players in Major League Baseball.[2] It forms the basis of the offensive component of their Wins above replacement (WAR) metric. Sites such as The Hardball Times have studied wOBA and found it to perform comparably to or better than other similar tools (OPS, Runs created, etc.) used in sabermetrics to estimate runs.[3][4] The Book uses wOBA in numerous studies to test the validity of many aspects of baseball conventional wisdom.
Formula

The formula, as it originally appeared in The Book, is
wOBA=\frac{(0.72*NIBB) + (0.75*HBP) + (0.90*\mathit{1}B) + (0.92*RBOE) + (1.24*\mathit{2}B) + (1.56*\mathit{3}B) + (1.95*HR)}{PA}
where:
NIBB = Non-intentional bases on balls
HBP = Hit by pitch
1B = Single
RBOE = Reached base on error
2B = Double
3B = Triple
HR = Home run
PA = Plate appearance

Since heavy emphasis and weight is on base hits then it would seem the clutch hit is more important than the clutch walk.

The walk is negated by Joe D’s example of Duda clutch walk and Baxter leaving RISP.

Remember when Duda had a SF opportunity to win the game and walked and I believe Satin lined out into a DP to end the inning..

• Yes a single ends up being more valuable than a walk because walks don’t advance runners over two bases like singles so often do. And of course there are win probability charts that you can use to look at individual situations like the Duda one you mention.

• Yeah an RBOE is more valuable than both when deciding if a player is BETTER than another…Because the BATTER CAUSED the Defender to SCREW UP in the same way you think a BATTER can FORCE a pitcher to throw ball 4 and EARN a walk!

• RBOE tends to be more valuable than a single because of balls thrown away, other runners advancing, etc.So it makes sense why it is worth more than a walk and single. I don’t agree with it being in the formula, but if it were in there, the coefficient they give it makes sense.

It isn’t in the formula anymore and hasn’t been in it for years, so it’s pretty irrelevant now.

• Whose wOBA does this MORE VALUABLE get credited to?

The guy who made the error or the guy who would have been out if not for the defensive screwup!

Your giving a guy CREDIT for CONTRIBUTION for an ACT HE DID NOT EARN!

This is what is wrong with 90% of your sabers!
Your credit system is all azz backwards!

• And yours isn’t? You think a player is better when they are on first due to single, walk, HBP, or ROE and the person at the plate hits a home run, giving credit to the runner for a RS.

Anyway, RBOE isn’t in wOBA so I don’t see how your point is relevant.

• Avoided the question as usual I see….

The persona at the Plate hits a HR then he did a hell of a lot MORE than the guy who walked did as far as scoring those runs now didn’t he?

If he strikes out instead none of those RS’ happen!

RBOE isn’t n there anymore because WE POINTED OUT to your EXPERT STATISTICIANS how stupid it was…

The fact it was EVER in there is proof that your science is SHODDY and just favors ANY OB over earned acts and doesn’t care if the player earned it or not (because HBP and BB are STILL counted!)

• 1. No and I didn’t avoid the question. I answered it.
2.

“The persona at the Plate hits a HR then he did a hell of a lot MORE than the guy who walked did as far as scoring those runs now didn’t he?

If he strikes out instead none of those RS’ happen!”

That only proves my point about runs scored….
3. Originally, the purpose of wOBA was to weigh every possible action a hitter can experience when up at the plate, RBOE included, in a raw production, context manner. It servad as a counter balance to the context-included stats like RE24, WPA, and others. Now it’s become something more useful — a value put on things a hitter has a major say in. Believe it or not (I know you won’t believe it…) not all saber-fans agree. I don’t think RBOE should have been included, and I am glad it isn’t anymore. While wOBA with RBOE did serve its purpose well as a way or evaluating how much the team was helped in that player’s trips to the plate, it’s better off now.

• a value put on things a hitter has a major say in.

Yeah cause we all know a Batter has a MAJOR SAY in if the Pitcher to plunks him and walks him right?

Even when you THINK you made a point the point itself is useless and has more holes than swiss cheese Connor!

What I said made MY point!

RUNS SCORES when BATTER DOES SOMETHING!

Runner on base does NOTHING to the scoreboard without the Batter CAUSING IT!

• The last time this discussion came up it was explained to you that that RBOE is no longer used in any wOBA calculation so why persist in claiming it does?

• Why persist in mentioning it?

Because the fact it WAS USED AT ONE TIME…

UNTIL people like US (who you all believe you are going to ENLIGHTEN with your math…) showed how RIDICULOUS putting it into a Player Evaluation Metric was…

Just UNDERSCORES just how SLOPPY, ILL ADVISED and NONCHALANT the SCIENCE you guys call Sabermetrics is being done!

And it also shows how the BIAS about BEING ON A BASE has led people to count the most RIDICULOUS Events as EARNED such as WALKS, IBB, HBP and yes at one time RBOE to SLANT THE LISTS of TOP PLAYERS with players who are on base as opposed to players who EARN those bases with their BAT!

A guy in their eyes that hits .300 with a .300 OBP SUCKS but a guy who hits .240 with an OBP of .310 is better!

And that is the most ridiculous and BIASED notion anyone has ever heard!

How many time did I get the word RIDICULOUS in there?

• Hi Hotstreak,

You know my take on those things. They can provide some important information reference wise that some who do not see the players perform day in and day out could not get – unless they just wanted to read the compilation of advance scouting reports by the last few opposing clubs which is still the way it is done in the majors – how many statisticians do we see sitting in the stands taking notes? LOL

And until I hear Ralph Kiner talk in those types of terms or perhaps Keith Hernandez or others telling players to take more time in FRONT of a computer, for those who have to play, manage or put together the team, I’ll rely more on those who speak of wrist action, knowing when to take the extra step in, have the instincts to anticipate when a certain play is going to be put on, etc. before talking about baseball in mathematical numbers which really do not tell me anything about the beauty of the game on the field.

• Hi Hotstreak,

It’s a rather complicated debate. I think the consensus is that seeing more pitches does increase a team’s runs scored generally, although not as much as some have been led to believe. I don’t have a lot of time right now, but I do have a few excerpts and links that would be helpful.

More pitches per plate appearance equals more runs – - true or false? by John Dewan

http://www.billjamesonline.com/stats118/

Also this from BtBS
Do Teams That See More Pitches Win More Often and Perform Better Overall? by Lance Rinker
Rinker found in his sample of all teams from 2002-2012.

With P/PA at or greater than 3.79, teams had a walk rate 0.83 percent better and a strikeout rate 1.65 percent worse (higher) than teams with a P/PA rate lower than that. They higher P/PA teams also had higher wRC+, wOBA, and an average team runs scored 11.5 runs higher than the teams with lower P/PA, which amounts to roughly one win over the course of a season. It’s not a great study but it works well enough to prove the point.

There is reasoning behind this as well. Power hitters tend to walk more and strike out more. However, they are of course, better overall run producers on average than non-power hitters. Obviously if you have a team that has a high walk rate and a high strikeout rate but not a lot of power, you will see more pitches and you won’t score as much.

• I love how we post ur OWN analysis but the Saberrattlers have to run to LINK OF OTHER PEOPLE’S WORK to show what they claim they KNOW because they have DONE the research!
ROFLMAO!

• Oddly enough, when I’m on my eighth hour of homework, copying and pasting data into a spreadsheet myself instead of just citing the person who already did it doesn’t really cross my mind.

• Hi Connor,

Though he still finished with a batting average below .250, to help get him out of his first batting slump remember the advice Juan Lagares got from Terry Collins? He told him to forget about thinking about working the count and just go up there looking for a good pitch to hit.

That’s how Ted Williams did it. No formula to it. That it averages out to something depends upon the individuals and not just their tendencies but the vast amount of game situations they were in, the type of stuff the pitcher had each time they went to the plate and if one was missing the plate or throwing everything in the strike zone.

One can get information that might be interesting to review and discuss like you are doing – but what is the point otherwise? One should never use those type of statistics as justification to alter how any one player approaches the game. Don’t try to fix something if it isn’t broken and if it is, try to see what is the cause of the problem before the prescription, not after it.

• You had ALL SUMMER to post your research and couldn’t do it…

You didn’t do ANY research Connor you just read it on the WEB The only sort of SEARCH you did was on Google!

• I worked 45 hours per week over the summer, visited colleges, did high-intensity training for cross country, was miserable for a week after getting mouth surgery, watched Mets games, spent time with my family, and relaxed. I didn’t have a lot of time. I am not paranoid. I don’t believe that the dozens of people who have done research on this topic were in some mass conspiracy to skew data (which people would notice and criticize them for if they did). Something like this isn’t very advanced at all. It’s doing a search for teams that meet a certain criteria and then averaging the results.

• What about all that time you spent writing ARTICLES meant to TEACH everyone about Stats that you have yet to prove to anyone are true to real life events?

• Yeah the 13 articles I wrote over 3 months? How many thousands of comments did you make during the summer? You seem to be the one that has the time. Prove the BtBS mini-study and what I said wrong yourself.

Your the one who claimed you didn’t have TIME to post your research….

You know that research you didn’t REALLY do just googled and bought without testing it for yourself?

• Let me put it this way: I’d rather spend what limited time I have writing articles and building up a portfolio of writing samples than prove something that has already been proven to an anonymous commentor that does nothing but harass me, someone who will nudge the debate slightly off-topic whenever I prove him/her wrong.

• whenever I prove him/her wrong.

Yeah when can we expect this to happen for even the FIRST tme Connor?

I proved I correlate better and HAVE CAUSALITY!

Even proved that what you (and the other nutjobs whose links you post) have a SCIENTIFIC name for the FALLACY your trying to sell!

This fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for “with this, therefore because of this”, and “false cause”.

Because I have showed that you can get MY this without YOUR THIS preexisting to CAUSE it!

And then showed they have ANOTHER name for your other Fallacy that the RBI is awarded BECAUSE of the runner who scored….

A similar fallacy, that an event that follows another was necessarily a consequence of the first event, is sometimes described as post hoc ergo propter hoc

Then I showed you REAL WORLD EVENTS that proved your Theory doesn’t work!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201305030.shtml

News for you who thinks he knows but really just BELIEVES….

SCIENCE doesn’t just work SOMETIMES!
It works ALL the time or the theory is WRONG!
And ALL the time in EVERY GAME…

The team with the most RBI wins!
And if it doesn’t it is because the DEFENSE SCREWED UP not because the other side got on base more!

• I right now do not have a lot of time either BUT I appreciate you links which I will look at. I am a numbers cruncher too as I am a retired CPA and auditor.

Although at work I was a number crucnher as a baseball fan I hate PIT/PA as do alot of Met fans but not Bosox fans.

“Obviously if you have a team that has a high walk rate and a high strikeout rate but not a lot of power, you will see more pitches and you won’t score as much.”

BINGO

My philosophy when you see a COOKIE be a monster and eat it up.

• The way to solve this discussion on PIT/PA is to tie in runners LOB average per game with RS. I plan to pursue this correlation when I have time unless someone wants to do it first.

I suspect having inferior players LOB will increase and also RISP LOB will increase. The key then is team B.A. to runners LOB.

Of course a teams (throwing unintentional walks out of the equation) with a high B.A. as part of OBP would tend to score more. Again the clutch hit. Yes you can get to first base if you don’t swing but you could look at backwards K’s too.

• Hotstreak,
I am with you on this. I am a numbers person too, but they are good to a limit and certainly not the end all be all in baseball. This is a game played by humans. Humans are good at sensing predictable behavior and responding accordingly. I wish I saw the stat of how many first pitch strikes, “cookies ” if you will, Met hitters, and Duda himself, watched. And, in the same at-bat, disadvantaged from the get go, how many times did Met hitters whiff on pitches outside on the strike zone? Countless. Regardless of what this PIT/PA correlations show, if the opposing pitcher knows you are a spectator, how can that correlate to more positive outcomes? Swing a t those cookies Lucas!

• Hi Hotstreak and TJ,

Know we tied into the “cookie” thing before with the Jones walk in 1999 and so much of what is being said makes me wonder why some even both watching the game – it seems the pleasure comes more from the statistical data one gets out of it than watching the beauty of what goes on in the field, how the many different variances are coming into play at one time, how certain fielders might be moving a step or two over possibly indicating the type of pitch and it’s location coming up.

You know what I really notice? When teams fall behind late in final games of a playoff series one could see the hitters more tense in their body language as they approach the plate, fielders rushing the play too fast, the pitchers less composed and sometimes aiming the ball. That’s part of the beauty that makes the game so empty when it’s talked about in terms of stats instead of that guy should have bunted, etc.

• Hi Joey D.

Yes NON-SABER guys know how to measure the human equation while SABER GUYS DON’T.

Here is an interesting link on the human mental equation.

Lew Burdette Braves pitcher responded to the allegations he threw a spitter.: “I wouldn’t know how to throw a spitter even if I wanted to,” Burdette once said to answer his critics. “But if the hitters have that in their minds that I’m throwing one, then all it does is give them something else to think about.”

• Joey D. and Hotstreak,
I bothers me that fans have aligned themselves as SABR or NON-SABR, I guess it is just like our gov’t and polarization is a sign of the times. I have a great respect for the SABR stats and the incredible ingenuity that has developed this insight into the game. The stats have their place, in the due diligence and preparation category, but they are tending to be abused by some that entrust they are the end all be all of baseball decision-making. Baseball as science is fine to a degree, but given the direct competition of humas vs. human, baseball will always be part art, and therein lies its beauty.

• Well the ones who make the distinction are usually Saber guys….

The rest of us will take a look at ANY METRIC and accept it provided it is created on a SOUND BASIS!

The real difference isn’t in the Metrics but what one VALUES in baseball!
Some think a BASE is all that matters the rest of us think a HIT is what should be looked for!

A hit is MORE than a base which in many of the bases the Saber guys like to count is barely EARNED by the player…Walks and most DEFINITELY IBB, and HBP…

We feel if a player hasn’t EARNED CREDIT for those thing ALL ON HIS OWN that he should not get credited for them.

We also have problems with how some of these Metrics are created!
wOBA uses some LOOKUP CHART of FREQUENCY that changes from year to year to determine how acts should be weighed and these weights favor the BASE over the BETTER BASE in their weighting. a single is weight slightly less than one but a HR is not weighed 4 times as much DESPITE it being 4 times the bases and scores a run!

And as a result WAR is not accepted because it uses wOBA as a main component to creating WAR!

Many of these Metrics have BAD VARIABLES included (as was the case with wOBA when RBOE was counted and weighted MORE than a real hit). And then these BAD metrics get mashed up with other bad metrics and the resulting SOUP is then put forth as RELIABLE!

They are not!
People think those of us who prefer some traditionals over sabers are against all statistical analysis!

NOT THE CASE!
We just prefer to ignore the Metrics that are created with a BIAS towards a certain act (Usually OB) over other more meaningful acts.
That and the approach that ALL OUTS are evil incarnate despite the knowledge that many OUTS have won many a game in the form of a Sac Fly or moving the runner over into scoring position in a tied game yet the player who managed to do that a WIN the game for you gets demoted in their Crediting system where BASE is all that matters regardless of if that BASE ever contributes to the end game results!

• Bro. can you spare a cookie. tthe most important part of the equation what were COOKIES NOT SWUNG AT.

Again a Hotstreak quote:

Passing up COOKIES during AB’s is like going on a diet of R/S.

• There is reasoning behind this as well. Power hitters tend to walk more and strike out more. However, they are of course, better overall run producers on average than non-power hitters. Obviously if you have a team that has a high walk rate and a high strikeout rate but not a lot of power, you will see more pitches and you won’t score as much

this is excellent analysis and succinctly describes the mets season. the 2 missing pieces are slugging percentage and hitting with runners in scoring position. the mets were poor situational hitters as well, how many times did the bunt not get down or the runner advances or the sac fly or run scoring ground ball not happen. this team needs 3 professional hitters added to the lineup. my preference is 1b, rf and ss, but any old music will do …

going back to the original focus of this post, lucas duda, the above also tells us pretty clearly why he should not be on the ml roster next season. poor situational hitting, league worst hitting with risp and only solo homer clutchness.

pass.

• obp is great for guys at the top and bottom of the order with speed. 3-6 have to be able to drive the ball. runs win games and you don’t score runs without rbi’s unless you steel home. that’s why duda sucks. why we should have been after abrue or at least a couple of guys that will DRIVE the ball. mike p. wasn’t the best hitting catcher cause he took walks , he drove the ball into the outfield consistently. obp and speed are great in combo with rbi guys.

• I feel more comfortable with Ike Davis on first base. The infield throws are more accurate and in the long run Ike has more to offer than Duda. Ike is the better of the two do nothings.

• i’m not comfortable with IKE unless we sign two legit bats for 4 and 5 in the line up, that’s both of corners, and means getting a lead off type ss. then and only then, am I comfortable with IKE , batting 6th , D.W – left bat- right bat – IKE – TdN – center fielder.

• Are you talking about the same Ike davis who batted .147 for half the year, bansihed to the minors and when he came back they wouldn’t start him at all against lefties because he can’t hit them – and he had no power all year? His defense has slumped along with his bat.

No mate – that ship has sailed.

oh, and BTW, Duda acts like he’s had a lobotomy when he’s up at plate. He is brutal with runners in scoring position. That ship has also sailed.

• I’ve been a Mets Fan since their inception. IF we can’t do better than Duda in 2104, I am out of here!

• If we compare each position players stats using the Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox and Tigers to each of the Mets position players stats, we will know exactly why the Mets can’t compete. All the weakness (and strengths) should stand out.

• Joe D:
Ike Davis will be the 1B when the season starts (mostly because the Mets spent a #1 draft pick on him), with Satin playing vs. lHP. Duda will be shipped to the 51s (he has an option left), because I don’t think any team will give the Mets anything of value for him, at this point.

• The Mets need to get to the point where they can compete with the Cardinals, Dodgers & Braves man for man. That’s the approach to take. If not they are spinning their wheels & the fans wasting their energy.

• the rotation will match up with anyone soon . now a couple of studs in the field and were on our way, one more outfielder to go with puello and a ss. a vet for 1st base , mabe loney if abrue is out of the picture.

• Duda, Satin…should be able to upgrade 1B but…
might be better upgrade at SS or corner OF…ex JD Abreu
how much would Ike cost us 2014 ?
Why not let those three fight it out and if they all fail…sign Victor Martinez next year…
if we don’t sign Abeu…

• As a few here have stated it really should not be an us versus them with polarized camps on each subject. Understanding the numbers of baseball enables one to better PREDICT future performance and place value where it is truly due. Virtually all MLB teams leverge advanced metrics to SUPPLEMENT traditional scouting and managing.

No need to fear statistics. It may not be as sexy as the long ball, but when used properly with purpose it truly has value in the game.

• i agree. the numbers have their place, but they are not the only way to describe how the game works.

situational hitting plays a big part in winning baseball games and the mets generally do this poorly. by situational i meeting hitting with risp, bunts, productive outs (moving baserunners up) sacrifice hits and flies. the mets are a good baserunning team but a poor situational hitting team

• Guys,

I think Hotstreak put it best with his example of Lew Burdette. There is too much in the human equation that goes way beyond what the stats show and can be used for some sort of hopeful projection. The example I gave before about Mitch Williams talking not about talent but of the mental ability to handle the closer role shows that those who are successful in the earlier innings cannot just be thrown into the closer’s role though the stats might show otherwise as Williams pointed out was the case with David Robertson. We saw this ourselves with Frank Francisco.

I’m also thinking of another little tidbit that makes the game what it is. Bob Gibson would come close at any time without hesitation and the batters new it. He also appeared as an intimidating figure on the mound as well, peering into the batter with those squinting eyes focused right at them. What they didn’t know was that Gibson’s vision wasn’t perfect and that he was squinting to see the catcher’s signals instead. But it made him appear even scarier and he used that to his advantage as well.

Stats create profiles and good reference material for ones who do not see players day in and day out – but then, even more detailed and up to date information could be found by reading a compilation of reports from the various advanced scouts. The stats are more for us, the fans and always will be. The details that they can reveal are things that are already known – and can only be understood and used properly by those who truly understand all the intangibles that make up this great game.

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