MMO Fan Shot: Early Look At Free Agent WAR Rankings

An article by posted on September 19, 2013

Shin-Soo Choo

Will Mets target Shin-Soo Choo this Winter?

On Fangraphs, they keep a running count of the standings for free agents based on WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Now, I am not interested in debating the validity of WAR, and if it can be used as a factor in ranking players, but these are the updated standings which will serve as a basis for considering the top free agent hitters and pitchers for the upcoming offseason.

I decided to include the top thirty position players and top thirty starting pitchers, and I added for reference the average WAR for the top position players over the last three years to see how they have done lately as opposed to their contract year.  Each point of WAR is usually valued to about $5MM in real life contracts.

Remember, the Mets must finish among the top ten worst records to avoid losing a first round pick if they sign a free agent refusing a qualifying offer from their current teams.

2014 draft order copy

Right now, the Mets have the #7 pick, but trail the #5 pick by just three losses.  You can follow the “race” here.

Positional Players

hitters

Starting Pitchers

pitching 2

Notes:

  • Shin-Soo Choo’s fielding is as a centerfielder this year. However, as a right fielder with the Indians, from 2010–2012 his fielding rating was 6.3, 2.1, and -16.7, respectively.
  • Any player traded during the season, like Marlon Byrd and Ricky Nolasco, cannot be given a qualifying offer.  Thus, no compensation is lost by signing him.
  • Juan Uribe had the biggest spreads in WAR, as he was 0.4, 0.2, and 4.1, for the years 2011 – 2013, respectively.
  • Players suspended like, Peralta and Cruz, cannot gain any WAR in the last month.  On average, most players seem to have gained about a half point WAR since August 31st (I did this exercise then also).  Pence has gained 1.6 points of WAR in these three weeks.
  • Nate McLouth has WAR of 0.1, 0.6, and 2.6 from 2011 – 2013, respectively.
  • Adam Lind only had two year of WAR greater than zero, 1.7 in 2013 and 3.4 in 2009.
  • Kendrys Morales only had 2012 and 2013 calculated in his average, as he missed all of 2011.
  • Jon Lester has a $14MM option for 2014 that is expected to be exercised by the Red Sox.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader, TexasGusCC. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 22,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

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