The Wall Street Journal’s Brian Costa reports that the Mets have not yet discussed the possibility of offering Matt Harvey a contract extension.
To date, the Mets front office has not even discussed the subject internally, according to one team executive. They probably will not do so before next winter. The team wants a bigger sample size on which to base projections on Harvey’s future performance and health. For as dominant as Harvey has been—posting a 2.33 ERA and striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings in 12 career starts—it is still only 12 starts.
Costa conducted his own study and polled a group of students from Pepperdine University who were recently honored by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) and this was what they concluded after examining all the comps, history, injury risk and evidence.
To mitigate any injury risk, the Pepperdine team suggested the Mets wait until after the 2014 season before offering Harvey an extension. They then looked at the contracts of not only the five pitchers listed above but also other starting pitchers who signed extensions after their first or second professional seasons.
Weighing all this, they recommended that the Mets offer Harvey a four- or five-year extension worth $30 to $35 million after 2014, assuming he remains on roughly the same performance trajectory.
Makes logical sense to me, and while it’s too premature to be discussing a longterm deal after only 12 starts, this does show how high;y regarded Matt Harvey has become in so short a time.
The Mets right-hander owns a 2.33 ERA in those 12 starts, allowing just 46 hits and 30 walks in 73.1 innings while striking out 89 batters.