Mar
6
2013
6
2013
MMO Fantasy Rankings: Third Base
An article by XtreemIcon
Welcome to the first installment of a yet to be determined number of installments Satish and I will be putting together on fantasy rankings for the upcoming season. This piece, about the top ten third basemen, will be followed by Satish’s rankings of outfielders and starting pitching, while I will subsequently add relief pitchers, as well.
Since most fantasy leagues use the standard fantasy categories of runs scored, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average, I went with those categories in my rankings, as well. True, fantasy leagues can be set up to include any number of offensive categories, but the vast majority of leagues just stick with standard scoring, so I will as well. Two items to keep in mind: fantasy is offense only, so defense isn’t factored in the rankings, and because we’re using the standard fantasy categories, these rankings won’t represent the players’ real offensive value.
To begin, I wanted to see how Yahoo and ESPN ranked third basemen. Take a look. The numbers in parenthesis read as follows: RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG.
The first thing that caught my attention was how optimistic ESPN is about the performances at the top of the list. That chasm-sized difference was a little surprising. The systems project entirely different seasons for both David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. What was not surprising is that both systems had the same ten players, even though there a general difference of opinion of placement.
My projections tend to fall somewhere in the middle, though I probably lean towards the optimistic side. My projections start with how the players have been trending the past few seasons and then are mixed with various ancillary factors pertaining to the individual player.
Here goes.
- Miguel Cabrera (105/34/129/3/.322) – Cabrera should be the consensus first third basemen drafted, and in most leagues he’s the #1 overall pick. The return of Victor Martinez certainly lengthens the lineup behind Cabrera (who I assume will bat third in 2013), so that could mean an increase in runs scored. However, even for a hitter of Cabrera’s stature, his 2012 season was a peak and he’ll likely regress some. He out-homered his previous career high by six and surpassed his previous RBI high by twelve. What I see benefitting Cabrera in that regard is Austin Jackson finally being a mature enough hitter to put together a consistent season. Jackson had a tremendous first half of 2012, but fell off mightily in the second half and Cabrera’s RBI total suffered as a result, despite hitting eight more home runs in the second half. Something else to consider is that Cabrera was only intentionally walked 17 times in 2012. True, an equally fearsome hitter was on deck, but Cabrera was so punishing offensively, I think there will be a handful of instances where the opposing manager would rather just give Cabrera one base instead of risking extra bases, thus lowering his RBI total and his run scored, because he won’t be in scoring position quite as much for the next two hitters. That’s not a significant point to consider, but three or four RBI and runs scored can be a big difference in fantasy baseball.
- Evan Longoria (98/36/111/4/.291) – My most optimistic projection, I see this year as the year Longoria stays healthy, which is why I see an MVP-type season for the Rays third baseman. I like the addition of Yunel Escobar and James Loney to the lineup, replacing Elliot Johnson and Carlos Peña, respectively. It affords Longoria better pitches to hit and also a better chance of being driven in with both those guys likely hitting behind him. Desmond Jennings should re-emerge after a 2012 sophomore slump and add Kelly Johnson and his .340-.350 OBP and some pop hitting second and Longo will have plenty of RBI opportunities. I really like Longoria as a steal in the late-second round.
David Wright (101/26/103/17/.310) – There is two main factors involved in my somewhat optimistic projection for Wright. The obvious one is a healthy Ike Davis hitting behind him. The second is the return of his K% to around 17% in 2012, down from the roughly 22% it was at from 2009-2011. Wright seemed to use the whole field more and stopped trying to pull pitches on the outer half. The result was better contact, a line drive percentage more towards his career average and the best offensive season he had since 2008. I don’t think he’ll quite regain that form, but he’ll continue to build on last year’s success.- Ryan Zimmerman (95/27/98/2/.289) – The addition of Denard Span and a full season of a more experienced Bryce Harper will do wonders for Zimmerman’s season. Jayson Werth is healthy now and showed that his patience at the plate that went missing in 2011 had returned after he recovered from a broken wrist towards the end of 2012. So if he’s back on track as a significant middle-of-the-order threat along with Adam LaRoche, that puts Zimmerman right smack in the middle of Span/Harper and LaRoche/Werth. I like that for fantasy owners.
- Adrian Beltre (85/27/91/2/.289) – My advice to fantasy players is to stay away from Beltre this season. I think he’ll have a nice season, but he’s probably a mid-second round pick based on recent history and I feel his production is a wasted pick in that spot. I don’t think it can be overstated what the loss of Josh Hamilton and Michael Young in that lineup will do to Beltre’s numbers. Besides fewer RBI chances and fewer boppers behind him to drive him in, he won’t see as many fastballs and will be pitched around far more often than he was. He’s still a real good hitter and still plays in a bandbox and will therefore be productive, but I’m certain come October, there will be a significant difference between what his average draft position (ADP) says his numbers should have been and what his numbers actually were.
- Hanley Ramirez (90/26/71/29/.270) – The fact is, there were only ten 20-20 guys in baseball in 2012 and he was the only third baseman. There’s intrinsic value in being comparable to your peers in most categories, but able to compete in a category none of your other peers can at the same time, and no other third baseman will steal even 20 bases this season. Ramirez will finish with a pedestrian batting average, modest runs scored and RBI totals, a competitive home run total, but stolen bases is where his value lies. My projection is based on Ramirez leading off. Until Carl Crawford is actually playing, I don’t factor him in the lineup. Something to keep in mind is that if and when Crawford does return and the surgically repaired elbow zaps him of the modest pop he used to have, Crawford could move into the leadoff role and move Ramirez down in the order to a place he’d see more RBI chances. That could also come at the expense of his runs scored total, however. It’s something you should keep your eye on.
Brett Lawrie (78/18/81/20/.277) – This is where it got tough for me. You can probably argue that any of the next four guys could rank anywhere from 7-10. I went with Lawrie based on his youth and his lineup. Lawrie will only get better from this point forward, and he’ll have a ton of RBI opportunities in 2013. He’s got solid pop in a hitter-friendly park. The only thing that’s holding him back is the weak bottom of the order for the Jays. They have one of the best top-fives, but nothing to protect Lawrie when he hits, likely in that 5th spot. The Catch-22 here is that Lawrie, as of right now, isn’t disciplined or mature enough as a hitter to bat second, which would change his season stats-wise. Lawrie owners should also monitor Melky Cabrera’s season. If the PEDs really did play a big role in his recent production and he returns to the fringe player he once was, Lawrie will likely move to that second spot whether he’s ready or not and that’ll spike his numbers considerably. I don’t expect that to happen right away, so for now, I see a him remaining in that 5th spot, driving in runs, but not scoring a considerable amount.- Chase Headley (77/19/82/19/.271) – Headley’s coming out party last season was a huge boon to those who drafted him at an ADP of 224. One of the best bargains all of last season. Unfortunately for Headley owners, the book is out. Headley is still a viable fantasy option, but he’s going to need breakout seasons by both Everth Cabrera and Yonder Alonso, along with 550 healthy plate appearances from Carlos Quentin if he’s going to see any fastballs. The rest of the league knows what he’s capable of. He’s the star and biggest threat in that lineup and teams won’t let him beat them. He, like Beltre, won’t be worth the pick at his ADP (51st overall).
- Pablo Sandoval (83/20/82/4/.291) – Panda will be hitting behind Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, so I don’t love his chances at significant RBIs. While Hunter Pence won’t put up Philadelphia-type numbers in San Francisco, I think this is the year Brandon Belt puts it all together, so that’s a wash as far as his protection in the lineup. I think Panda is a good hitter with good power, but he plays in a pitcher’s park and doesn’t have a great lineup around him, so his numbers will be a little deflated because of those two factors. Third base is pretty deep this year, and I don’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of difference between Panda and his ADP around 76 and, say Mike Moustakas (ADP of 160) in the four counting stats, but Pablo gets his kudos for his batting average. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hits .300, but I think he’d need a big second half to reach it.
- Aramis Ramirez (80/23/87/3/.285) – I remember drafting Ramirez in 2002 after his monster year in 2001, only to see him fall off the face of the earth. I stayed away in 2003, only to see him rebound, then move on to Chicago where he became the kind of hitter that would likely be 3rd or 4th on this list. My biggest knock on Ramirez is that he’s 34 years old and hasn’t played 150 games since 2006, just missing the mark the last two seasons. The hitters behind him don’t impress me much, although Jonathan Lucroy was on his way to a breakout season before it was derailed by injury in 2012. Much will depend on him because if he poses no threat as Ramirez’s protection, there’s not going to be much setting Ramirez apart from the aforementioned Moustakas. I’ll even go as far as bumping Ramirez off this list in favor of David Freese if you happen to be playing in a keeper league. I can easily see Freese with the same numbers, but he’ll only get better, whereas Ramirez career is in its twilight.
A couple more notes on third basemen this year:
- Long-term for those in keeper leagues, I think Manny Machado has a higher upside than Will Middlebrooks, but I think Middlebrooks has the better 2013 and 2014 seasons. Machado is still so young and it’ll be a couple of years before he begins to really exploit the potential he has.
- A lot of people are disrespecting Kevin Youkilis this season. I think he’s playing for an organization that plays to his strengths and that surrounds him with a very good lineup. His ADP is all the way at 196, but I see his fantasy numbers looking somewhat like 90/22/90/2/.275 if he’s healthy. That hasn’t been the case recently, which I expect is why he’s getting drafted around the 17th round, but if you’re strong in enough other positions, don’t be afraid to “reach” for Youk in the 13th or 14th and nab him as your starter.
Keeper league folks, pay close attention to Rockies stud Nolan Arenado. He’s tearing it up in spring training and could actually come north with the Rockies and begin immediately. He isn’t even getting drafted in a very large majority of the leagues, and even if he’s rushed, could still produce as well as any backup you could find outside the top 20, and you’d have him as a keeper forever. His potential is widely known and he may be asked to reach it sooner rather than later.
Stay tuned for Satish’s outlook on the top fantasy outfielders for 2013.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
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Since 2009 david wright has average this numbers:
290 BA 18 HR 82 RBI 80 RUNS 35 DOUBLES 18 SB 840 OPS and that was with Reyes and Beltran in the lineup, yet somehow, SOMEHOW you’re suggesting that he’l have a 300+ BA more than 25 HR and more than 100 RBI when in the last 4 years he’s reached that platoo one time n 2010?????????????????
I don’t play fantasy baseball, but if i did, i clearly wouldn’t go to you for advice. btw, since you pointed out the good things he did last year, how come you left out a second half comment in there? in the past 4 years the man has been MIA in the second half, not sure how you make your predictions for fantasy baseball, sound more like biasy baseball…. SMH
With his drop off in the 2nd half he still finished the season over .300, so why wouldn’t someone thing he could hit .300 this year?
That was with Davis having a horrific first half, and no Reyes or Beltran in the line up.
Do you break out in hives every time someone says something positive about Wright, you do realize he wears a NY Mets uniform right?
I agree there is no doubt DW is the 2-4 ranked 3B in ML and a class guy. That is great. He4re is my objection to the over hype.
There was a little girl
By Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
There was a little girl,
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.
Kay, let me ask you a question, last year he had a great first half, great, do you honestly think that he was playing for a contract? just answer me that please….
You’d have a case for that argument if the season were reversed with the 2nd half being as hot after a less than hot 1st half. So no.
So he was only “playing for a contract” the first half of the season and then decided the contract didn’t matter anymore??
What????????? He ended up the season hitting barely above 300 when a one point in may 25th i think he was hitting 405!!! which was like the 50th game of the season, 270. csince that day he hit 270. come on kay, i get you like the guy, but you can have all kinds of argument about the same thing most of the people pointed out as well in the reyes’ case. don’t be so bias jeez…
Come on I get that you hate the guy, but stop with YOUR bias. Geez
Hate the guy? Because i speak the truth about him and most of you can’t handle it? because all i do is state facts about him and his phoney persona
Pretty fair to say you hate David Wright, and Sandy Alderson.
Nimmo, Cecchini
don’t forget Depo.
Phony persona? What are you. .? What?? Do you know him personally? Have you seen him multiple times in public acting contrary to his public image? Where do you get this crap? Have journalists hinted at this? Have former teammates said anything of the sort?
I know several people who do know him personally including someone who dated him years ago. Every single account of him I have heard is that he is the exact person we see in public. There is nothing at all manufactured or fake about him or his image.
I for one am shocked, shocked I say, that a Alex was the first to comment on a post about David Wright. Who could ever have seen this coming?
Keep tilting at windmills Don Quixote.
Point of parliamentary procedure Messrs. Chairmen (Joe D and co), I know we aren’t supposed to instigate and I know we are supposed to use particularly soft gloves around Alex, but do the new rules require us not to react to the incredibly absurd and repetitive statements born of his not all disguised bias and hatred to Wright and Sandy? Am i allowed to call a clown a clown? If not I will stop.
But man, this was so predictable and really so damn annoying.
no, it appears you can not. and since that is the entirety of the body of work, the only solution is to somehow block all his posts. Basically, find a way to put the cloak of invisibility over him, and remove the reply button.
I’m sorry if my response annoyed you. It was not my intent. I will do my very best to ignore these posts and do what you say, treat the reply button as if it is not there. You are correct, that is more productive approach for the MMO community. Again, I am sorry.
“I will do my very best to ignore these posts and do what you say, treat the reply button as if it is not there.”
There you go now your getting it.
even with his tremendous stats last year the man from 2009 has had a consistent 284 BA with averages of 18 HR and 80+ RBI. Clearly to me he was inspired by a contract that might make the guy rich (it did) so, why not think that he’ll revert back to form from 2009 up to date? it’s only logical no? i mean, after all, wasn’t the same thing said about reyes? that he was playing for a contract and that he’ll revert back to form? why is it that when one of us say the same thing about the guy we get scrutinize and attack? are we not allow to say anything negative about the guy?
Last year the guy hit 301 with 26 and 93. And you find it absurd that someone would predict 310, 26 and 110. You find it absurd?
I could see why you might disagree. You might say, for instance, that his second half was far worse than the first and if that trend were to continue he would struggle to approach 300. You might make one of several arguments why these predictions may be a bit aggressive. And there are counter arguments which might suggest they are more than fair.
But you find them absurd. You find them so absurd that it offends your very sensibilities so great that it causes you to rant?
I’d say those were great over/unders to start a good discussion Personally, I think those numbers are a bit high but definitely in the ball park. I think 20-24, 95-105 and 290-305.
Since this is intended for those that participate in Fantasy Baseball leagues out of curiosity how is the turnout for MMO’s fantasy league looking?
I think Wright can certainly be criticized but let’s just be fair. He got beaned in 2009 (but I don’t think it really skewed the numbers that much); he bounced back in 2010 (29 HR/103 RBIs); he broke his back in 2011 and missed over 50 games and he bounced back last year. I think 20-25 HRs,90-100 RBIsand .300 BA is about right. He’s not Miguel Cabrera, but Cabrera. gets paid more too.
Well, starting in 2014 wright will change that, as he will make a similar amount as cabrera does.
Wright will make $20 million per season and cabrera $22 million. We all know who will probably produce the contract and who won’t.
Wright only makes 11 Mil this season.
I’m surprised that your not aware at what Wright will earn.
He is reported to earn $17.25M in 2014 and that is before removing the $2.5M of his scheduled deferred money which will then make the total $14.75M.
Through 2012, Cabrera has earned $95 million in salary and Wright has earned $54 million. Through 2015 (when Cabrera becomes a FA unless extended) Wright will have earned $105 million and Cabrera $150 million.
Well, again, wright in the decline, cabrera only get better, cabrera’s contract has been pretty much paid off, wright? A huge mistake. Just you wait and see… But for now, apology accepted from the CORE
Why is Wright in the decline? Last season was his second best as professional and it’s not as if he’s old, he’s 30 (only 5 months older than Cabrera I might add).
Am I seeing things?
So ESPN has Wright as the second best third baseman in baseball? No wonder their ratings keep dropping.
That’s not entirely accurate. ESPN has Wright as the second-ranked offensive third baseman based solely on those five stats, which as I mentioned, do not accurately show real value.
Just saying, by WAR Wright is the best third basemen in the game.
WAR includes defense. He was 4th in BREF’s oWAR.
I mean fangraphs war
Still, that includes defense and baserunning, both of which are non-factors in Cabrera’s game. BREF compiles oWAR and dWAR seperately. Strictly offensively, Wright was 4th amongst 3B last season.
Oh right, I forgot this is a fantasy post. Whoops