1
2013
Mets SS Prospect Gavin Cecchini, More Than Meets The Eye
An article by Teddy Klein
Last draft day, I watched and waited to see who the Mets would select with their first round pick. I watched as my first choice, Carlos Correa was called Number One overall, and Addison Russell, my second choice was nabbed one spot before the Mets. When Bud Selig stepped up to the podium and finally announced the Mets’ selection, admittedly I, as well as many others, groaned as our newly minted top prospect, Gavin Cecchini, walked onto the stage to grab his jersey and hat.
Later that evening, as the first day of the draft was wrapping up, Tommy Tanous, the Mets’ director of amateur scouting, told us that Cecchini was someone the Mets had wanted all along.
“He is somebody we targeted all year,” said Tanous. “An offensive shortstop but he doesn’t give much away defensively.”
I’m not sure how accurate that may be, because it’s the usual clichè you hear quite often from team executives, especially scouting directors, every draft day.
Almost immediately, the voices in draft forums, the talking heads, and social media were abuzz with many already writing Cecchini off before he ever swung a bat in his new Mets uniform.
However, I did not write him off and instead began pouring over his many available scouting reports and other online information that was widely available to everyone. Eventually, I started to warm up to the Louisiana shortstop with the big smile. Summarizing the scouting reports, he is a high floor, mid ceiling type of prospect, with an advanced bat capable of a high average (possibly .280 – .290 with continued development), with the ability to spray drive line drives all over the field.
In terms of power, Matt Eddy from Baseball America projects him to hit up to 10 home runs annually, while MLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo rated his future power as a 4 on the 2-8 scale, which translates to 10-12 home runs annually. Either way, they project him to hit many doubles, which for a projected top of the order hitter, is great news.
As a defensive player, Baseball America called Cecchini a solid shortstop, rating his hands and footwork good enough to stick at the position. Mayo rates his fielding as a future 6, meaning plus. The only knocks that have been made against him on fielding is his arm, which rates average. Usually, most regular shortstops are rated plus. But either way, it looks as though scouts agree that Cecchini will be able to stick at his position despite the average arm strength.
Although these scouting reports don’t scream “future star”, they do show an above-average shortstop in the makings, possibly even top-10 if everything goes right, which as a fan, is something we all want.
Usually, the first round is known for selecting and signing high-ceiling talent, but a lower-ceiling advanced talent can sometimes work his way into the first round and surprise many.
To give a very recent example, in 2008, Ike Davis did not receive a glowing report and was considered a lower rated talent than Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, and David Cooper. Unlike Smoak, Alonso, and Cooper, Davis became an above average first baseman and probably will be the first baseman of the Mets for years to come. Hosmer has become the Royal’s first baseman of the future, while Alonso, Smoak, and Cooper are still trying to find their way. Both Alonso and Smoak have already been traded, and Cooper is finally making it onto Toronto’s radar five years since being drafted.
Back to Cecchini. For those not excited by his bat, they should find a new context when it pertains to shortstops. As stated above, Cecchini’s ceiling is a shortstop who could hit .280 with 10-12 home runs annually with lots of doubles. I think I’ll stick with the most popular stats, average and home runs, because the greater majority of fans still relate to them as a means of judging players.
Batting Average:
Projected peak Batting Average for Gavin Cecchini: .280 – .290
In the majors last year, there were just eight shortstops in the Major Leagues with a batting average of .280 or better. This could mean that Cecchini could become a top eight shortstop in hitting for average if everything goes right and he meets most scouts’ expectations.
Home Runs:
Projected peak Home Runs for Gavin Cecchini: 10 – 12
Shortstops are not known for power. It is rare to find a shortstop that will annually hit more than 20 home runs. There were only 4 who hit 20 or more home runs. In fact, there were 13 Shortstops in the Majors last year who hit 10 or more home runs. If Cecchini can swing for the fences at least 10 times, that is still an above average shortstop.
First Season As A Pro:
Cecchini was signed almost immediately after the Draft and sent to Kingsport for 53 games. During that time, he hit .246 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, and 1 home run. He also stole 5 bases but was caught 4 times. To me, these stats are pretty good, especially for a newly drafted 18 year old competing in a league where the average age is 21 years old. It should be noted that Cecchini was cruising along at a .285 clip until he broke his finger, missed some time, and was clearly hindered by the injury for the rest of the season.
The bottom line is that Cecchini was playing a premium position in a league where the average player was three years ahead of him in development time. For a teenager, under the conditions he was asked to play in, Cecchini impressed me and held his own batting close to .250 in a league where he was clearly in over his head purely on an age standpoint. He will, however, have to improve on his base running.
Gavin Cecchini strikes a pose for MMO last summer after he was promoted to the Brooklyn Cyclones.
What The Future May Hold:
I am excited to see what Gavin Cecchini does for an encore this season, but I am realistic. It depends on where he ends up. He should begin the season exactly where he ended 2012 at Short Season Single-A Brooklyn. But if he impresses in STEP Camp, he could be pushed up to a full season league and go straight to Single-A Savannah. I see an average close to .265, with 5 home runs and 15-18 doubles if he winds up in Brooklyn.
In Savannah, a notorious pitcher’s park, I can see him hitting the same average but with 7 home runs and 20-25 doubles. Either way, that will be impressive and more than welcome, given that he will be one of the youngest players in his league once again.
Cecchini was selected within the top 15 picks of the 2012 draft, and for good reason. With at least above average fielding, an average arm, and potential for a high average and double digit home runs, Cecchini projects to be an above average shortstop, possibly a top ten shortstop if everything goes right.
If he improves his base running, all the more better. So, in summary, please do not write him off so quickly base on small sampling or because he wasn’t your first choice on draft day. He’s a Met now and we own him and all I’m trying to establish is that he might be a much better player than what most people think. We’ll have a much better idea of what we have here in 2-3 years and that will make him easier to accurately project. Do me favor… Keep an open mind and give Gavin Cecchini a chance to change your opinion of him.
What are the 5 Tools?
1. SPEED: Speed is the one tool you can’t teach. However it is possible to enhance a ballplayer’s speed, but substantial improvement is dependent upon each individual athlete and based on good jumps (burst) and reading situations.
2. ARM STRENGTH: While not as important as the other four tools it can be a formidable weapon on defense, and valuable in evaluating a pitcher’s muscle endurance and ability to throw hundreds of pitches weekly without sustaining injury.
3. HITTING FOR AVERAGE: Hitting for average requires the ability to hit to all fields and also identifying defensive situations as well. Making contact and bunting are all part of it.
4. HITTING FOR POWER: “Chicks did the longball”, isn’t that what Sandy Alderson always says? The benefits of power need no explaination.
5. FIELDING: Just as important as hitting for average or power and many a games’ outcome can boil down to one defensive play. Defense does matter.
Note from Joe D. - We want to welcome Teddy to MMO and look forward to his valued insights. It’s not often that we can get the perspective of someone who has a background in scouting and sees baseball prospects and minor leaguers differently than most of us do. Teddy was a scouting assistant for the DSL under Omar Minaya, spent time interning for the Cape Cod League, and also with the Brooklyn Cyclones for whom he developed, edited and produced scouting videos. Teddy’s father, Joe Klein is the widely respected and notable writer whose books books such as Primary Colors were New York Times Bestsellers and and that particular one eventually became a hit blockbuster Hollywood movie. Please welcome Teddy to MMO!
About the Author: Teddy Klein
A Westchester Native, I am a senior at The New School studying for an Undergraduate degree in Social Work. I am a lifelong Mets fan with a background in minor league internships for scouting in both the Dominican Summer Leagues and the Brooklyn Cyclones. Every day consists of reading up on players, following games, reading scouting reports, and completing my studies. I eat, drink and sleep prospect information. My twitter handle is @TK_MMO. (For reference to all commenters, I only reply to positive comments and respectful questions.)
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 22 | .511 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 24 | .467 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 25 | .405 | 8.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 32 | .289 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/21/2013
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Ok, if he proves he’s worthy of that pick then ok, most of us who criticize the pick will admit we were wrong, but to waste a pick (1st round nonetheless) ona guy who will hit 265 according to you its not a good sign. Like I said, many people project this guy to be a backup and there’s a reason for that.
Alex68 says that if Gavin is worthy of a 1st Round pick he’ll admit he’s wrong. That would be an almost total personality makeover based on the stubbornness he and his Core show daily. Let’s see.
By “us”, you mean you, correct? I REALLY wish you would back up your statements. Who is projecting him as a backup? Link some sources.
I think you mean scouts believe his floor is backup, which is still pretty good for the lottery process of the MLB draft.
A positive piece on Cecchini? Now that’s a nice surprise. As a new fan of MMO I must admit that I am enjoying the intellect I find here daily, though not as much of it in the comments. I enjoyed your take on Cecchini and it does go to why many experts out there, like Mayo whom you cited, still regard Cecchini very highly.
Nice post Teddy. I see an Edgardo Alfonzo type career and if he sticks at short then this pick was a grand slam home run.
Welcome aboard Teddy.
The only thing that concerns me about a young player like this is the fielding arm. I don’t know that this will change dramatically over time. If the kid has a solid glove, then he sounds to be like 2B will be his future moreso than SS. Truthfully, his projected offensive #s may actually be more acceptable if he were a 2B.
But, a long, long way to go with him.
Teddy,
Great post. With your experience and perspective, I am very curious to hear what your thought are about Courtney Hawkins, individually and as compared to Cecchini. As a fan without inside knowledge, I was most troubled by the Mets signing Cecchini underslot and passing on Hawkins, who it seems is already rated higher that Cecchini on most prospect lists.
Once again, this blog shows its absolute disrespect for Ruben Tejada. This is a Mets blog and in listing the average for the top 10 shortstops last year you left out Ruben Tejada who hit .289!!!! Why do you disrespect Ruben so much?
Please weigh in on this, I detect serious prejudice, or simply neglect, but it is indicative of the mind set to constantly ignore, omit and disrespect him
There was no conspiracy here and knowing that Teddy used MLB.com for looking up the top hitting shortstops in 2012 to get some quick info to include in this post, it seems Tejada was not listed.
Shame on MLB and check for yourself:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting§ionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1362148273043&position='6'&season=2012&season_type=ANY&playerType=QUALIFIER&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=&active_sw=&game_type='R'&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&perPage=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0
It’s because Tejada did not have enough AB’s to qualify with 464. 13 more AB and he’s on mlb’s list
What’s the minimum? Why did John Jay qualify in the OF with 443 abs.?
Well truth be told it’s really not AB that matters. It’s plate appearances. I just used the AB number to show how Tejada could have probably been listed.
In order to qualify for batting titles in averaged categories, a player must average at least 3.1 plate appearances for every game his team has played.
Which means Tejada and Jay would need 502.2 plate appearances to qualify. Funny enough, Tejada had 501 and Jay 502.
So 1 more plate appearances and Tejada is on this list and nobody freaks out. That’s up there with “we talkin about practice.” to me
got it thanks. I understand the need for a minimum but it’s seems pretty silly that you can have that many PAs and miss out on qualification by one. Case in point Jay qualifying and Tejada not.
also, why not just make it 3.1 OR an even 500 PAs since teams usually play the scheduled 162 games? The 3.1 could be used for teams that don’t play the full 162.
last thing. just an interesting note. Melky Cabrera and Stanton also had 501 PAs last season. Melky was hitting .346, which would have led the league, before he got busted. What timing! Surprised that didn’t get more press coverage, or maybe it did and I missed it.
just searched for why melky didn’t win the batting title. turns out he could have bc it’s a rule that if you take an o-fer for missing plate appearances under the magical 502 and still have the highest BA you win the batting title, but he asked MLB to not apply that rule to him, so he ended up not qualifying.
expected by most “experts” to go in the middle of Round 1.
So, while he may have been picked a couple of spots ahead of expectations, it´s not as if the Mets totally dodged the consensus here and took a “reach” here. It´s more a matter of fans seeing a couple of higher ceiling prospects like Hawkins or Giolito being left on the draft board at the time of the Mets pick – even if the likelihood for those to have an extended major league career is probably below Cecchini´s while the odds of them becoming a “star” are probably higher.
Cecchini doesn´t have any “screaming loud” tools that lead you to dream about future stardom right now. However, unlike most SS that get drafted, pretty much everyone agrees that he´ll remain at that position longterm. So, if he hits at all, you have a good chance at a starting MLB SS. Cecchini has also receives high grades for his “makeup” & coachibility. It seems like a common theme with recent Mets draftees. I guess the hope is, that prospects with this “skill set” will have a better chance to reach their ceilings. And as a 19-year-old, their certainly is a chance that he´ll develop more pop eventually. Heck, nobody expected Troy Tulowitzki to become a Gold Glove SS with 25+ HR ability when he finished High School ( and then went to College).
At such an early stage, it´s best to take a “wait & see” approach, a) on what Cecchini exactly is and b) how good the other candidates end up performing. Giolito underwent Tommy John surgery recently and will miss all of 2013. Hawkins had himself a nice debut, albeit with significant strikeout totals. To become an average LF in the majors, he´ll have to hit a lot better though than for Cecchini to become an average SS.
If you decide to draft HS players with your 1st round pick, you better be prepared to wait. Since the Mets drafted mostly college players under the previous administration early, results usually came in a lot more quickly. With picks like Nimmo or Cecchini, it´ll take a minimum of 3+ years for them to even approach the majors normally. Very likely 4 or 5. If you look at the current Top prospects in Baseball lists, they are loaded with players who were drafted out of HS several years ago – Travis d´Arnaud (2007) and Zack Wheeler (2009) being prime examples from the Mets organization. Shelby Miller (2009), Christian Yelich (2010), James Taillon (2010) or – using another Mets example – Noah Syndergaard (2010) being others. So, before declaring Cecchini a bust, it´s probably best to give him at least a full season in pro ball or two. Maybe he´s Ryan Jaroncyk 2.0. Maybe he´s Derek Jeter 2.0. Maybe – and probably – he´s somewhere in between…
Yeah i know our own home grown player would e in the top five and you dont have him there?
Take it up with MLB.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting§ionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1362148273043&position='6'&season=2012&season_type=ANY&playerType=QUALIFIER&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=&active_sw=&game_type='R'&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&perPage=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0
Thanks Metsallday. This blog regularly goes out of its way to avoid mention of Ruben and rarely gives him his due. He can hit a 2 run homer and the comment on the game will be about a walk to Justin Turner. It now seems intentional. I’d love to hear why from the bloggers
Popster: Relax a little. Ruben Tejada did not have enough AB’s to qualify in 2012. If .288 won a batting title and we wrote about that, Tejada wouldn’t win the batting title at .289 because of his AB total. It doesn’t mean we disrespect Tejada, it just means he didn’t qualify with enough AB’s for the specific conversation being had.
The discussion doesn’t really need Tejada to be a part of it. The discussion is about what an average SS does with their batting average. Throwing Tejada’s unqualified .289 into the mix really changes nothing about this post about Cecchini ya know?
Teddy K why did you not list Ruben Tejada? He hit over .280. Can you explain your reasoning for leaving him off your list? Not to mention that he’s actually on the Mets, too.
He probably didn´t have enough PA to qualify after missing over 6 weeks mid-season, did he ? I believe you need 3.1 PA per game to qualify and Tejada barely fell short. Depending on what stats you use, he wouldn´t be included.
Tejada is a really steady and somewhat underappreciated player. He reminds me a lot of Edgardo Alfonzo, albeit with less pop, of course.
Still, Tejada himself should be an average major league SS going forward.
And Cecchini projects to be ready for the majors if all goes well right around the time Tejada figures to be eligible for free agency or gets really expensive (if he also progresses as hoped).
So, barring Wilfredo Tovar suddenly learning to hit, it could well be a case where Tejada´s successor may well be Cecchini in the longterm plans of this franchise by 2016 or 2017.
Dr. Dooby you are right, just checked with MLB and Tejada was considered a Non-Qualifier.
Bayonne, you should know better. You finally have someone who employs a scouting perspective and used home runs and batting average to assess Cecchini and this is how you greet him? You disappoint me.
Why? What’s the problem? All I did was ask him why Tejada was left off the list and that he’s on the Mets which to me seemed more strange as to why there was no mention of him.
What’s wrong with that?
Actually, Bayonne,. there is no problem with your comment to Teddy. I overreacted because I was angry at Poopster’s comment and I apologize for barking at you without just cause.
no problem, totally understandable.
Yes it should have included Tejada who would have been 5th on the BA list @ .289 just ahead of Reyes in fact.
oh, and i just noticed that he used traditional stats. Which is awesome. Finally! Because i’m a believer, as you know, that you can look at the traditional stats and get all your ops, slg, etc. just from looking at them, not the other way around.
Nice post Ted…
Like Cecchini, a pick which I admit I hated, Nimmo also doesn’t seem to get much credit for the year he put up in Brooklyn. How about a similar article on him? He also was playing with guys that were years ahead if him in development and he didn’t even have a high school team. Of the two, I see Nimmo actually having the tools to become an all star.
I think that’s the primary knock on Cecchini. Even if he reaches his full potential, he’ll be an above average SS, but nothing spectacular. You only get one first round pick most of the time, and it seems to me, that it should be used to pick a potential franchise player if possible. Cecchini seems to fall short in that category.
I think money was the biggest factor in this pick. They picked a kid that could be a good player that can contribute on a winning team. A borderline safe choice money wise. They left potentially better talent on the board. Not signing Teddy S, the under slot pick of Cecchini, and leaving a bunch of their alottment money on the table, all scream to me that they were strapped for cash in this draft.
If your mid 1st round pick turns into an above average major league SS, that´s one heck of a draft.
How many above average major league SS, heck, even average major league SS have the Mets drafted in their history ???
Like with Piazza at C, the Mets were somewhat spoiled at SS with Jose Reyes.
Take a look at some past Mets starting SS:
Rey Sanchez
Rey Ordonez
Mike Bordick
Jose Vizcaino
Dick Schofield
Kevin Elster
Rafael Santana
Frank Taveras
Buddy Harrelson
…I could go further…
Heck, Ruben Tejada has a pretty good chance to be better than pretty much any of them, except for Jose Reyes obviously. And Gavin Cecchini´s upside certainly isn´t less than Tejada´s. How many of these former Mets SS played solid defense and ever batted .280 and hit 10+ HR per season at the same time ? Anyone ?
So, if you believe that that´s a pretty likely outcome with Cecchini, he has the upside to be the best Mets SS other than Jose Reyes in over 50 years.
First of all, with Nimmo, I ask you if you read my mind, because that was initially my first idea, and is written down in my notebook. but I decided to go with Cecchini because it’s partially a statement, because there are so many people who have judged him so far, and I wanted to answer with positive insight. Starting with a bang is something I learned from my dad. Look for the Nimmo piece within the next few weeks.
What I want to make a point about in the draft is that the entire spending strategy has changed, making more teams spend under slot to be more creative later in the draft, which was exactly what the Astros did later in the draft. With Teddy S, I’m not sure what happened, but they might have thought he wasn’t worth the money he was requesting, or that he had a permanent regression post-draft, I don’t know. We all want our team to spend the money, but we forget that it’s still their money, and it’s a lot of money as well, so I can’t exactly blame them for not signing Teddy S.
Teddy, regarding Nimmo just watched this interview he did where he goes over his past season and you might find some of what he says useful in your future post.
http://web.sny.tv/media/video.jsp?content_id=25640301&topic_id=&tcid=vpp_copy_25640301&v=3
Thanks, I’ll be sure to use it. I have a few ideas in mind when it pertains to Brooklyn and Nimmo, due to my experience as an intern there. Thanks for the source.
“Nimmo also doesn’t seem to get much credit for the year he put up in Brooklyn. How about a similar article on him? ”
Honestly, Nimmo does get love around here. Keep in mind, he’s still a few years off, so there really isn’t a need to get in depth with him yet.
Hello, thanks Joe D. For welcoming and introducing me to the masses. I am a truly proud individual that has been given the honor of writing for Metsmerizedonline.
As to comments on my lack of commentary towards Ruben Tejada: I have the utmost respect, and think he has done a terrific job in taking the helm at premium position especially after Reyes’s departure. His eye at the plate and general hitting approach are amazing for a player who is still one of the youngest in the National League. The graphic with shortstop’s averages was among qualified players, which Tejada was not due to injury. Sorry for that inconvenience.
The projection of .265 is purely from a development standpoint. Cecchini has done well to adjust to wooden bats and pro pitching, and will still make adjustments and bat against more difficult competition should he go to either Brooklyn or Savannah.
Nice report, by the way, Teddy.
A good piece and thank you for the input.
Honestly, I have no idea what Gavin will turn into anymore than anyone else. I love how people on here pan the picks made by Alderson’s crew when they are 1 or 2 years into professional ball. It shows their immediate hatred. Why? Because they didnt select Hawkins who is obviously better in their eyes. Well, if I am not mistaken, two other teams passed on Michael Jordan.
If Gavin is only a back up middle infielder in the major leagues, that will be a success. How many middle infielders have the Mets produced in the last 10 years who didnt anything more than a cup of coffee at the major league level? 3 maybe 4 (Reyes, Tejada, and Anderson Hernandez from my memory. The reason why guys like Cedeno get signed is because the Mets cannot even produce someone to fill that role.
Either way, there is a lot of distance between Brooklyn and Queens. A positive article but conjecture nonetheless. We will know in about 3 years.
Everyone understand that this post had nothing to do with Ruben Tejada and there was nothing disparaging said about him.
A chart was used that was generated by MLB.com and for some odd reason they didn’t have Tejada listed. It doesn’t change the point of this article. Now, knowing that, if you still have a problem let me know and I’ll escort you off my site myself. Any takers?
Those of you who would even think we’d disparage any Mets player, or intentionally try to make a Mets player look bad on MMO ought to be ashamed of yourselves. To even think that makes me cringe that you are even a part of this community.
I’m deleting the charts which were only added for perspective anyway, and had nothing to do with the point of this post.
The fact is that some of you only comment here to put us down, and if that’s the case then GET LOST! I mean it, get out of here. I don’t need your ignorant presence here. The New York Mets players see us as one their favorite sites and quite frankly they don’t even look at the comments.
This is a site for intellectual baseball commentary. If you can’t act respectful then leave. If you catch a typo you can easily email me to correct it rather than being an ass. Have some decency and respect for crying out loud.
“Everyone understand that this post had nothing to do with Ruben Tejada and there was nothing disparaging said about him.”
I agree Joe. That is like saying that someone who pitches at Brooklyn is an attack on Harvey. One has nothing to do with the other.
Tejada is the Mets SS this year and for the foreseeable future. There is nothing close in the pipeline that I can see which will unseat him if he produces at a decent level. However, having a guy like Gavin in the system is a good thing. Let him work through the lower levels and arrive at AA or AAA, then a comparative discussion can start. Until then, it is only based upon speculation of how he might perform at the major leagues level IF he continues to progress at an anticipated rate.
This……….whatever that means!
Teddy… Nice Job. I thought the post was insightful, well laid out and brought a nice perspective that is refreshing.
And I think it’s tough to have patience with Baseball prospects when you see the NHL, NBA and NFL all having players drafted the previous year starting the next for their teams. The odds of a Winfield happening where they make the jump right to the show is probably on par with winning the lottery twice while getting stuck by lightening both times. Looking forward to watching the kids progressions and here’s to hoping for steady growth.
I think the problem isn’t Cecchini as much as it was that we didn’t take Courtney Hawkins. Hawkins kept dropping in the draft due to fears of a huge signing bonus demand that might have led to unsignability.
Hawkins never should have gone past the top 5 selections in my opinion.
When he finally fell to the Mets, and New York being a large market team, everyone on MLB Network thought he just became a Met and even they were surprised that we didn’t select him. They made a comment that they just gave the Chicago White Sox a gift.
It’s not fair to Cecchini, but I think that is the main problem and for that I place all the blame on Mr. Wilpon.
And what is Hawkins but conjecture also. That is what almost the entire draft is. Outside a few cant miss guys (who can miss), most draft choices are a coin toss. Teams do the best they can but who knows what will evolve.
Hawkins has issues too. I read some scouts seriously question whether he can hit at the upper levels of the minors (I would think this would apply to all prospects but anyway). At the same time, there seems to be some scouts who put the floor for Gavin at a mid level major league hitter. That is a contrast in scouting perspectives. Based upon the draft choice, we know which scouts the Mets listened to. Time will tell who was correct.
You may have misunderstood my point, I always prefer the offensive shortstop to an outfielder in the draft and I happen to be one of the rare ones who liked the pick from the onset.
I was just trying to covey why I thought so many people (including Met fans) knocked Cecchini. The kid did nothing wrong. I felt that most people who watched the draft heard and saw what was going on during the MLB Network coverage. They were building up the drama that Hawkins was going to be a Met and then it didn’t happen, their reaction tainted many Met fans who were watching. They were all acting shocked and like they thought he’d be a Met and either Mayo or Hart then said something like “Wow, the Mets just handed the WHite Sox a gift”. (paraphrasing)
When Hawkins did go next, he and his family who had been shaking their heads and looking somber after the Mets passed on him, jumped for joy. To make matters worse the guy did a backflip and the entire place erupted with cheers and applause.
That created what I thought was an unfair negativity campaign against Cecchini and it was nice to see a thoughtful piece like this one to show that Cecchini was still a solid pick.
Ok I understand William.
It will be interesting to see who turns out better. For either of them, nothing will be known for 3 years minimum. The debate might be entertaining but the proof is on the field. Whoever has the better major league career will show which scouting reports were better. And if neither make it, both teams squandered 1st round picks (which half the teams do statistically in each draft).
“Hawkins kept dropping in the draft due to fears of a huge signing bonus demand that might have led to unsignability.”
You don’t drop possibly 10 spots for signability if you have as much talent as people say Hawkins has. He signed for $2.5 million when Cecchini signed for $2.3 million. Every else above them either signed for more or went unsigned.
Every time I see you post anything about the draft, it’s inaccurate and unfounded.
How do you account for Appel? The projected #1 who fell all the way to the Pirates because of money demands, and oh by the way, he didn’t sign!!!
That’s why the Mets dropped to the #11 unprotected pick for the 2013 draft.
Why don’t you just stick to commenting on Alderson, DePo, JP, Beane, Moneyball, saves and wins mean nothing, and saber? You’d become a rock star around here if you did just that. Just a little friendly advice from one fiend, to another.
“Every time I see you post anything about the draft, it’s inaccurate and unfounded.”
Really? Says the guy who equated Zack Wheeler to Oliver Perez.
It is really funny that whenever you make such a loud declaration of how little I know, you say something verifiably wrong.
For instance, Appel was drafted at 8, not 10. also,Appel turned down a $3.8 million offer. the Astros signed Correa to a $4.8 million deal, so it wasn’t the money. In fact, 4 of the top 6 signed for more. 4 players that Appel is supposedly better than all got larger offers.
“Why don’t you just stick to commenting on Alderson, DePo, JP, Beane, Moneyball, saves and wins mean nothing, and saber? ”
Terrific comment that will do so much to further the conversation.
Yeah it’s all about the 6th tool … character.
He’s a character guy and the thing about drafting character guys (Nimmo is another) is you’re working on the blank slate premise … basically that you can take a raw, physically gifted kid and turn him into a star. In order for this to work, however, you need a top notch development program … otherwise you end up with a bunch of guys who can run and jump real well but can’t hit a frigging breaking pitch.
I remember a story (can’t find it) about how Cecchini was like this fitness addict in High School, he’d get up after his parents were in bed, sneak out of his house and pull train ties across a field near his house, uphill (both ways) through quicksand and over snow drifts and barbed wire. it got so bad that there was a problem with the lactic acid buildup in his muscles and his Dr. ordered no physical exercise for like a 2 month period. The train tie thing reminds me of Sylvester Stalone hopping around with a log on his back in Rocky IV …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bu00RiPjaa4
DRAGOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
To play devils’ advocate, were there character issues with Hawkins?
I honestly have no idea about the answer to that one way or another. But Hawkins might fit into the character mold also.
Maybe Hawkins didn’t pull train ties across fields at odd hours of the night …
I follow most of the prospect sites and I’ve never seen anybody project him as a backup. It’s pure bullshit.
That should be in reply to donal at the bottom of page…
I figured it was for me.
But ya, everything from all the usual scouting sites says he projects to be a starting middle infielder. There is some debate as to which side of the bag and how he’ll compare to others at his position, but no one pegs him as destined to be a back up.
Welcome to MMO Teddy. I’m guessing he will play in Savannah this year if so let’s hope that Cecchini starts to meet expectations.
Thanks. I am very humbled by this opportunity.
The only question I raise about that speculation is that we still have Phil Evans blocking him, and likely headed to Savannah, and Muno heading up St. Lucie. They simply can’t split the time between these two shortstop prospects in Savannah, they both need development, and the Mets won’t move Evans off shortstop so early.
Good point and by the way don’t worry about omitting Tejada. It’s obvious your screen capture was of shorstops that met the qualified plate appearances.
Excellent post on the scouting analysis for Cecchini.
Hope to see more of these here at MMO.
Welcome Teddy.
I can’t fault your optimism regarding Cheech….
But I will ask the same question every time…
Is he really better than Tejada? Overall?
Seems he may have a bit more pop but usually a bit more pop comes with a lot more Ks as well!
His High Cieling BA projections seem to suggest he will have around the same average as Tejada if Rueben doesn’t improve on it the way he has the last two years.
And I don’t see anyone saying he is a better defender than Tejada anywhere.
Will he make it to the MLB? Well most 1st rounders do even if they don’t deserve it because there is such a high pick at stake if they do not trade him eventually they will promote just to say he wasn’t a complete bust.
I hope the kid does well and wish him such but I find it hard to get very excited over a player who does not seem all that much better than the guy we have there now esecially knowing there was an OFer available that is expected to do MUCH MORE at a position our GM said Outfield? What Outfield?
That means he not only has to be better than Tejada he has to outdo that OFer or this pick will go down in history as a big mistake!
There are many comparisons and contrasts between Cecchini and Tejada. Tejada’s main edges are being proven, and his eye at the plate, but I get the sense that he is a serviceable infielder, just average really, and his bat only plays up at shortstop. He has average speed, not used for stealing.
Baseball America gives the sense that besides his arm, Cecchini is a plus infielder, with a higher speed rating than that of Tejada. Matt Eddy said in his scouting report that Cecchini could be a top of the order catalyst or #2 hitter. Tejada’s contact makes him only a 2 hitter. Cecchini also features some untapped power, leading to a possible double digits in home runs, which Tejada wouldn’t be able to achieve with his frame.
I agree with the outfield situation, and want the mets to draft some young high ceiling outfielders and more Catchers this time around.
Well Teddy BA may have that to say abut Cheech but I have seen others talk about him as this servicable IF that will only get by because of his Bat…
As for Tejada I see an awful lot of Edgardo Alfonso in him.
Fights off pitches with 2Ks on him. Not great at any one thing but VERY GOOD at all of them.
When Alphonso came up (at 21) he didn’t show any power for two years either hitting 4 HRs in around the same number of PAs as Tejada.
If Tejada fills out his frame just a bit more he will gain more power….With a little coaching (As I suggested get Henderson to work with him like they did with Reyes) the SBs would come as well.
And how much better does a MAYBE like Cheech have to do in order to unseat a very competent guy doing as well as Tejada is?
Pretty far if you ask me.
I predict Cheech will be traded before he ever makes this team.
And thats fine if they get value for him but I can’t get excited over something like that.
Very valuable points, but my ending point was that we don’t know what’s going to happen really.
The point of this piece was to provide a counter argument to the people continuously down on Cecchini, and show what he could be in a positive context. At the moment he has no chance to unseat Tejada, and is years away from possibly unseating him, and maybe by then, Tejada will be traded himself or will walk as a free agent.
With fielding, as stated in the section with his ratings, it wasn’t just Baseball America, Jon Mayo rated him as a future 6 which translates to above average. Any other scouting reports suggest he could be moved to second base, but that’s because of his arm rating as average. Many scouting reports suggest moves from shortstop often, most high school shortstops are subject to this, but many scouting reports have rated his actions at the position as “true shortstop”
As for Tejada’s power? No scouting report has said he would hit for power, and his frame doesn’t suggest it either. His frame cannot support that type of game. Tejada is what he is, and it’s pretty great, but if Cecchini on the off chance succeeds at meeting these projections, (and that’s a big if, just like any other high school player), you will have a better shortstop than Tejada.
Teddy you mistaking down on Cheech as a player….No one is judgin his ability…
Just the taking of him when you had Tejada and and didn’t have an OF and took a SS you didn’t need but no OF you did!
No one has ever said Cheech can’t or wont play in the MLB…We are not DOWN on him we just don’t respond well to people who get up on him merely because Sandy took him and thinks he is midas…
You didn’t do that which is why your not getting trashed on this piece.
I am sure he will be a fine player the only problem I see is it won’t be for us. And we passed up a guy we could really use to get him. Mostly for the same reason we have traded 4 all stars and a Cy Young winner…MONEY!
This was a cool post and very informative. I am really enjoying the posts here lately. Give us more!
Welcome to MMO, Teddy!
I liked this piece. I’m usually pretty down on Gavin C, so it’s nice to see a counter-post.
Great post and welcome to MMO Teddy! I’m a big fan of your dad’s writing and it appears the apple didn’t fall far from the tree.
Can any of the people who keep saying scouts project Cecchini to be nothing more than a back up infielder possibly link to where they read that?
Because anytime I do a search for those terms, all I get is links back this site. If any professional scouts are saying his ceiling is back up infielder, they aren’t saying it too loudly.
I won’t hold my breath.
By the way, good stuff Teddy. Is it OK if in my head, I read your stuff in a mangled Russian accent?
Do it in any accent you want. As long as you enjoyed the piece. I appreciate all the support, since this was my first published piece about the Mets ever.
Is that a Rounders reference?
Nyet! Nyet! No More! No! Not tonight! This son of b!%@h, all night he, “Check. Check. Check.” He trap me!
Want a cookie?
Mr. Son of a b!%@h, let’s play some cards!
Now I am going to have to watch that movie again.
Agreed. This quotefest can go on forever.
And of course the movie is not on Netflix so I have to go to backup plan.
It’s not? I added it to my queue like a month ago.
I mean streaming.
Ya, I know. I’ve watched it streaming recently. They must have taken it down because I don’t see it now.
Have you ever seen Poolhall Junkies? Kind of the same idea and it has Chazz Palminteri as the gangster and Christopher Walken giving the inspirational speech.
Ha! I just saw trailer will add to queue thanks.
I own it. I love it. You’ll enjoy it.
I’m glad someone got it. I was starting to worry. And I really can’t use too many quotes from that movie around here.
At least not without filtering it or else, Poof! You’ll be banished to the cornfields and I hear there is no type of signal reception out there.
I personally think Ruben is one of the better young SS in the game. Sure, he’ll never hit 20 homers a season, but a .300+ average and a .380+ OBP sure isn’t out of the cards for him. He’s no bum in the field and could definitely be a starting SS on a championship caliber team.
It is great to have him there and even better that the Mets have players like Trovar, Cecchini, Evans, and Rosario all developing in the minor leagues. Ruben’s presence enables the Mets time to allow these prospects to grow and hopefully flourish at their own pace, culminating hopefully in a great surplus in one of the game’s most treasured positions.
too many good players at a position is a nice thing, not a problem.
and having a guy at the position that is OK is less of an issue for looking at low A ball teenagers!
but say Ruben continues to develop, and Cecc zooms up the ladder, and in a few years he is banging on the door. If he is better than Tejada, Ruben can move to 2B. or be traded. Or Cecc can be traded, and young hot-shot SS is a real valuable commodity (just ask Texas).
I say we give him time to develop, sheesh he was 18 when drafted, Harper/Trout type players come around rarely so let him develop his swing, work on his defense, getting rid of ball quicker if this is a problem.
Let him a have a whole season at Brooklyn, where ever then we can see what kind of SS he projects to be or possible 2B.
I say scouts, FO, fans, etc can comment all they want but until these young, especially 18 year olds, figure out living away from home, starting a routine different with different players for the 1st time.
He is probably a few years away from making team so just let him play, have fun, improve game to game then we can argue over whether a draft pick from 2012 is a possible backup or bust.
Rooting for you Cecchini.
Great article and understandable stats with comments.
not sure if you are old enough to remember the dark ages (before the internet) but back then, you might here of a top draft pick at the time, and then not again for years until they were coming up. And mid round picks were anonymous.
so yeah, let the kid play another 3 years, and see if he is maybe at AA when he is 21 or so, then you might have an idea about what he is going to be.
if he breaks out and moves faster, great. if it takes him until 23, the world will not end.
I understand what you are trying to here and I appreciate all the effort, but if the goal is to make solid baseball decisions, then the pick was a failure, check that, an epic failure.
I understand the whole idea that we own him now and of course we all want to see him succeed, I get that.
But the Cecchini pick, at the time, at the place, under the circumstances of having no outfield depth, having given Evans triple slot the year before, under all those things, that pick was an epic failure of execution and a bade decision that made no sense.
And I think you know that!
I say that because you sound like a very intelligent man and like someone who knows the real deal.
So Teddy K, here is your Litmus Test.
Was it a fail under all those circumstances I mentioned? Yes or no?
Your question is fallacious. You don’t draft for immediate need and who cares what Evans was given? How is depth at a premium position a bad thing?
Unless a team chose to not draft Strasburg or Bryce Harper #1 since they were CLEARLY going to the big leagues very soon after the draft, it’s borderline silly for anybody (pro or against alderson) to try and grade the draft as a pass or fail.
Nobody and I mean Nobody knows what the future holds for Hawkins or Cecchini or Nimmo. All we can do as Mets fans is hope it goes our way. Who knows why they didn’t draft Hawkins? Maybe they didn’t like him? Maybe their scouts (because you know they have them right?) liked Cecchini more? Maybe they thought the back flipping amateur didn’t fit their mold? Maybe they thought he his power is valid but that he won’t be able to translate it to the big leagues?
Who knows? Why do we have to circle other draft picks and act like we’re doomed because we didn’t get them?
Unless the 2012 draft turns out to be the worst draft class ever, there’s going to be a player that was picked after Cecchini that we will wish we had. It’s inevitable.
Maybe because the organization is filled with no-speed, no-defense sluggers and this regime thought it would be nice to go with better up the middle defense? In both cases, actually?
Well I don’t think or know if that is necessarily true. Reports I read say he is a pretty capable defender if put in a corner and has decent basepath speed.
Still, he’s not here. I don’t care about him. 11 other teams passed on him also right? It
not like he’s a slam dunk prospect. He CAN be a bust. He’s 18 years old and struck out 56 times in 59 minor league games. He’s got work to do.
Let’s try to focus on what we have rather than pretend to know anything about what we do not have?
Well, I don’t think he’d be another Duda, but reports say he could be capable, but reports on Cecchini and even Nimmo already say they are plus potential.
I should add that “capable” in a corner and “plus” up the middle aren’t really that close.
And then it hit them….
Outfield? What Outfield?
Absolutely great points. Have agreed with you all day.
The other thing is, you don’t declare a whole draft or a farm system a pass or fail based off one player. If Cecchini does burn out and Hawkins is an All Star, would that matter if Nimmo, Fulmer, Mateo etc etc all have become good major leaguers?
focusing on one player or another and nitpicking who was chosen where is missing the forest for the trees.
Yet you guys don’t seem to have a problem doing that for TWO GUYS whenever you would like to say Sandy improved the Farm System don’t you?
Lets face it the picks he has made may or may not be good…
So lets stop giving out accomplisments and award for things that when challenged on the nuts and bolts winds up always back to square one you can’t JUDGE them yet….
We agree…WHY DID YOU THEN?
Your post makes no sense at all. What are you even talking about?
To tell the truth, I am disappointed that we didn’t draft many outfielders, but I do get why we drafted many infielders and catchers. Catchers and Shortstops are premium positions, and outfielders with great offensive output are less rare. In the context of our later future need? Yes it can be counted as a fail due to our lack of depth in such a common position, but the beauty of the draft is that you can restock with talent every year and I hope we do this coming draft.
To clarify, Cecchini isn’t a fail to me. Too early to tell. The fact that there weren’t many outfield picks wasn’t ideal to me. Thank you for the compliments.
My question is whether your question would be the same had we drafted Correa, Appel or Giolito? Would you expect it to be a fail because there wasn’t an outfielder?
Right. Is Hawkins suddenly the only player worth picking or is he who we focus on because he happened to be picked right after the Mets pick?
For all we know right now, Lewis Brinson is going to be a very good OF also and maybe Hawkins and Cecchini bust and we’ll hear “we should have drafted Brinson!!!” from the same people upset today that Courtney Hawkins didn’t play for Brooklyn.
Hi Teddy! Excellent article. It’s great to have someone with a scouting background on the MMO staff. Welcome aboard!
Thank you for your support. It is truly an honor to be able to write here.
Cecchini will be very helpful in the leadoff spot major trade involving santana and a top pitching prospect would give mets plenty of long overdue hr power to at least make the playoffs and who knows maybe top PRIZE.