1
2013
Johan Santana and the Mets Have Reached a Crossroad
An article by 
Terry Collins told Jorge Castillo of the Star Ledger that Johan Santana is on target to start his first spring training game on March 10 or 11.
That would give him about five starts, assuming there are no other setbacks, before Opening Day.
Frankly, I don’t care if he’s starting Opening Day. I just want him to get fully healthy as soon as possible, even if that means missing a few starts early in the season.
The Mets are faced with a tough situation regarding Santana is he regains some of his form from previous seasons.
In one scenario, Santana could get off to a great start when he returns, and the team too could play great baseball out of the gate.
Santana would provide leadership and experience for the Mets’ young pitchers, and if he has his stuff working, he will try to keep the Mets competitive for as long as possible, hopefully deep into September or even October.
But scenario two could work out just as well for the Mets.
Santana could pitch very well out of the gate, and the Mets could swing a deal similar to what they did in 2011 with Carlos Beltran.
Beltran was tearing the cover off the ball and the Giants needed an outfield bat, so Sandy Alderson pulled off a deal for San Francisco’s top pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler.
Now, even if Santana starts red hot, he likely wouldn’t command a Wheeler-type prospect in a midseason trade, merely based on his recent injury history. But there’s no reason why the Mets can’t acquire an impact player as they gear up for a strong season in 2014.
It’s going to be a difficult call. If the team is hanging tough, Santana will likely be part of that success, yet the team needs to be realistic in its chances. A contender needing a starting pitcher could certainly look to bring in a starter of Santana’s caliber.
These scenarios, however, will be rendered irrelevant if Santana continues to struggle with injuries or pitches poorly.
But from the Mets’ perspective, a healthy Santana can help this team both in the present – if he’s pitching well – and in the future – if the team can acquire another young prospect in a trade.
About the Author: Jim Mancari
Jim Mancari hails from Massapequa, N.Y. He recently earned a Master's degree in Journalism at Hofstra University. He is a devout Mets fan and takes pride in his team, despite their lack of success over the last few years. Like all Mets fans, Jim has plenty of hope. He also writes as the sports reporter for the Brooklyn Tablet newspaper and the senior editor of metroBASEBALL Magazine. Click my name to view my personal website.
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To trade him he has to be REALLY good out of the gate in order to get anytyhing…And not just good has to go deep into games so endurance isn’t in question…
I don’t really see that happening….
And there is that third possibility that no one wants to think about…
He’s awful, struggles or Injuries hamper him…
Then he’s just gone at the end of the year without getting anything…
The big issue in any trade is the Option…Even if he was traded a month ago they couldn’t get a pick for him since they can’t make a qualifying offer they either take the option or not.
So I won’t be expecting much back in any deal for him….You might get something minor for the Pen and at best some A Ball prospect who isn’t ranked very highly….
I think most of the people in the trade “Santana” camp have some Beltran-Wheeler tinted glasses on. His recent bouts with injury, his lack of production, and then also the contract…are all major hindrances. I think the best hope is that he continues to recover and is ready for the season. He gives up a good final year, and we say goodbye when the season is over.
Regardless of the season he has I think he is done at the end of the season….
Only a Very Good performance will change who he might end that season with…And we won’t get much in return.
If I had to bet, it’s even money He ends the season with us and we decline the option.
Metsie,
Good points, especially with the option. All this focus on opening day and will he or won’t he is really misguided. If he misses a start or two in the beginning of the season, it is no big deal, and the Mets may even be able to go with a 4-man for a turn or two based on the schedule and weather. This would all but insure that, in the event that he returns to the Santana of old (unlikely but possible), he won’t be on a trajectory to hit 215 innings and lock in that big time option for 2014. Any threat of that will scare away virtually all suitors at July 31. And, as you point out, he could be shot and lousy, which could lead to his release this season. This is one big uncertainty that can really have any outcome, but I like the plan of “building arm strength” and missing a couple of April starts as the “best for everyone” scenario, unless, of course, he looks like the stallion he used to be in March.
Yeah it’s pretty good bet he will end the season with us mentor Harvey and eventually Wheeler this season and then we decline the Option (it is a team option not sure it ever locks but I don’t know the terms so I take your version as correct)
The only way Santana sees another year as a Met is if they decline the option, He gets no takers in FA and he re-signs with us at a much lower rate. It’s a possibility but slimmer than a Jim.
I´ll certainly root for Santana but won´t get my expectations too high.
I don´t think he´ll have significant trade value in July even if he pitches well till then. Contenders will probably feel that he´s a huge danger to break down any moment.
He certainly won´t bring a top 50 in Baseball caliber prospect in a trade, even if the Mets “eat” his entire salary.
At this point, his value is probably higher as a “mentor” to the young pitchers on the Mets staff and hopefully someone who can get people out in spite of diminished stuff.
And the odds that he exceeds 150 innings seem low.
I wish it were not so, but I have no confidence. He may last til June, if he ever gets started. Too bad.
Trade him right after he pitches another no-hitter.
First we are paying this guy 25M to be a mentor. I wish I had these posters as my employer.
Anybody who attends spring training knows Santana does most of his workouts in the stadium
away from the back fields. To me that speaks loud. He usually communicates with players of the same ethnic background,so much for mentoring. I would expect a 25M pitcher to perform at the highest standard,which for the most part he has not done for the METS. Occasional brilliance yes,consistently NO. I for one will be happy when we are done with with the excess in payroll and he is gone. Any prospect gathe3red would be a plus!!!
We are paying him 25 Mill regardess because even if you found someone to trade for him your still going to pay most if not all the salary he is due….
The Kids DO need a Mentor…He is the only one here who CAN do that….Which mean next year when he is gone they really need to look into getting someone else who can play Mentor AND WIN a ton of games because the best way to mentor a Kid is to show them how it’s done and have the record reflect how well it gets it done!
Something Santana is going to have a hard time doing.
Time to take a page out of the Giants developmental program…and treat Johan like they did the freak. Throw him in the pen till he gets his form back and give Wheeler his shot at the big show. He can still be a mentor, and help the team where we need it most…the pen!
I said that about Johan last year….
We should have put him in the pen and let him build up his arm strength in a situation where his use could be easily controlled and then we could put him back into the rotation this year.
I was quickly shot down….
no. really?
no. really? those are the scenarios? you must be a genious!