7
2013
Is Jon Niese Underrated?
An article by 
When talking about Jon Niese… well that’s the thing. Niese isn’t often spoken about, particularly as a respected pitcher in the NL East, an esteem he deserves after his 2012 campaign.
Granted yesterday’s outing in which the young southpaw gave up four runs over 2 1/3 innings in Venezuela’s 14-10 routing of the Mets is not the Jonathon Niese that should be respected. That Niese is the Niese who hurled a one-hitter against the Padres in 2010, or the Niese who put up a 3.40 ERA this past year, or the Niese that went at least six innings in each of his last 20 starts of the season. That Niese deserves to be recognized as more than just a back-end starter.
He wasn’t seen as much throughout the minors, never ranking higher than sixth on the Mets top prospect list. In the spring of 2010, Niese had to compete with Fernando Nieve for the fifth rotation spot on the major league roster. He showed flashes of realizing his potential in ’10 and ’11, but couldn’t put together a stretch of quality starts.
Then came 2012, where the 26-year old Ohio native came into his own, not only lowering his ERA south of four for the first time in his career, but also compiled a WHIP of just 1.172, won 13 games and struck out over 150 batters. It was a year for Niese in which he rose from the doldrums of mediocrity into a budding core talent for the Mets who now enters his prime years. Niese was able to get the tough out and stay mentally in the game on a more regular basis this past year along with significant command improvements and control of his secondary pitches. Another contributing factor–believe it or not–was his nose job, which has since resulted in improved breathing (that one, you can blame on Beltran).
Sandy Alderson has only handed out two contract extensions in his tenure with the Mets so far; that of David Wright‘s and Jon Niese’s. Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and plenty more talents have come and gone under Alderson, however Niese has been elected as an important enough of an asset to retain for the long term.
We learned earlier today that the Mets could have given the Blue Jays Niese instead of R.A. Dickey in the blockbuster deal that landed the Amazin’s Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndegaard, but chose to keep him instead of the reigning NL Cy Young award winner.
The current regime clearly sees him as a core part of the future for this organization. So why is it when we talk about the future of the Mets pitching staff, the conversation ends after Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler? Niese is not only a centerpiece of the present, but it has been made so he will very much be a part of the future.
I spoke with our fearless leader, Joe D. about the premise of the lefty being more than just an average pitcher. Joe told me he believes Niese would be a number two pitcher on a bottom 15 team and a number three for a top 15 team. I however would give him the number two spot for a rotation capable as high as 90 wins.
I say that like this Mets team, there is much more than meets the eye with Niese. His secondary pitches are coming into fruition, his potential is slowly being reached. I believe Jonathon Niese,–born the day the Mets last won the World Series–will continue to build on his breakout year in 2012 and establish himself as a force to reckoned with in the National League.
About the Author: Clayton Collier
Clayton, a Long Island native and die-hard Mets fan, started writing online about three years ago. He is currently a Journalism major with a minor in Broadcasting at Seton Hall University. Although very disappointed with the current state of the team, Clayton remains hopeful that the young prospects in the farm system will bring the Mets back to a respected franchise in baseball once again. Besides writing for MMO, Clayton is also a staff member at 89.5 WSOU, Seton Hall's modern active rock radio station. You can contact Clayton by following him on Twitter: @Clayton_Collier or E-mailing him at MaybeNextYearMets@yahoo.com
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Um…. Not sure what you mean clayton with this article. the thing is, the mets suck, and most of the players will be unnotice by everyone else because of it. is simple, unless you’re a superstar, it’s hard to be rated by the media. winning cures many things, if we’re winning and ike davis is hitting bombs, niese keeps winning, then the media will start paying attention. up until then, it’ll be hard for him to come of the shadows, but this year can be his really breakout year…
“So why is it when we talk about the future of the Mets pitching staff, the conversation ends after Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler?”
Speaking for myself I’ve always considered all 3 in that mix.
As have I, however I don’t think that sentiment is shared around baseball.
I know I have read a few fans suggest the reason they extended Niese was to make him more appealing in a trade but I never subscribed to that notion but as far as the media I can’t say I recall reading where they said Niese wasn’t a part of it.
Sorry, should of expanded what I meant by “it” is being the future.
Not so much that he isn’t mentioned whatsoever, but the poster children are Harvey and Wheeler, and Niese should be in the mix there
I agree as well! I think this season is a big step into discovering Neise’s character and leadership that could help the young rotation in coming seasons.
Is Niese underrated? No he is not.
He has good upside and that is all. He is a mid rotation pitcher at this point; something that he will not likely eclipse. A good young pitcher to have as a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. However, he is not a front end pitcher at this point. He might get there but then it would be a surprise based upon the scouting on him.
Contrast that with Wheeler who is projected as a #1. His upside is much higher than Niese, at least in terms of potential. He might only be a mid rotation guy also but that would be a letdown based upon the scouting reports.
I like Niese and am glad they didnt trade him. He will be a constant in the rotation for another 1/2 decade.
All the scouting reports I’ve read have Wheelers potential max-ed at #2.
I think Niese is still peaking. He’ll be a # 2 for us for ‘the future’. IF we are planning to contend in ’14, trading Niese would be nuts.
Harvey no-no’d Marlins over 4 1/3 today. MDD homered.
Not underrated, just rated. Every rotation needs a Ron Darling type
Very much agreed on Darling. That (or Andy Pettitte) is a good comparison.
A great # 3 starter and decent enough # 2 starter – on a good team. A lot of teams do not have a # 1 or # 2 type SP anyway, so a “# 3 caliber SP ” in scouting terms is often leading a rotation by default.
In a best case scenario he´ll be following Wheeler & Harvey in the middle of future Mets rotations ahead of, say Dillon Gee (and eventually maybe Rafael Montero) and whoever is the # 5 SP.
Since he already had a very good 2012 season, I don´t see why people expect or hope for a breakout from him. He already was one of the top 25 to 35 SP in Baseball in 2012. How much more of a breakout do you expect, barring the expectation that he turns into a Cliff Lee type ace ?
Underrated? I don’t think so….He has a lot of potential that he hasn’t quite hit yet….
In Fact he may be OVERRATED if he never takes that next step.
As for what he has done in spring so far….
A guy with as many pitches in his arsenal as he has is not going to be good quickly in spring…
First off he won’t use them all right away, Work on a few then work on the others once his comfortable with the first targets.
Second a guy like Niese is hardly trying to get people out he is merely trying to get his pitches working and controling/locating them.
He is not looking at scouting reports on the batter nor working a batter in any way.
In fact his pitch selection is probably the same as it would be if there was no batter at all to face!
As for the under or over….Within two years time we will know which…
Lots of people expect more from him….If they don’t get it then he is overrated…
A lot of people think he’s good not great….If he takes another step up then he is underrated.
I think we should just let him do what he is going to do, keep him healthy and hope something clicks to make him ELITE.
He has the stuff now it’s about does he learn how to use it to get to the Cy Young running.
Again, with all due respect, how much more do you expect ?
Check out Niese´s 2012 stats. He´s right there among the 30 or so best pitchers in Baseball in pretty much every relevant category.
And while he´s very good & steady – he lacks a plus plus pitch that´ll lead to dominance.
So, I´d happily settle for a repeat of his 2012 numbers in 2013 and going forward. That´s a very good pitcher.
He’s good but he is not an elite pitcher yet….
A lot of people think he will be…
If he takes another step he probably will be…
If he doesn’t he will be a good pitcher but never considered one of the great pitchers.
Metsie: Actually I was tone of the first ones on the Niece bandwagon and was also maybe the first to compare him to Andy Pettite. Now I am not sure he will go to the next level. I am a big believer in BABIP. Niese use to be the poster boy for bad luck with a BABIP I believe over .310 up until last year when his BABIP was .270 or so. Unless he get the out pitch (too many foul balls like John Maine syndrome) he is liable to regress slightly. Now I think Dillion Gee is under rated as he had a ton of quality starts (QS). Both of them are tough competitors.
He has a few pitches that could be out pitches thats the funny thing about Niese….
As I siad he has the stuff to be great even Hall Great…
But having the pitches isn’t enough…He has to learn how to use them, use one pitch to set up the other. He has showed glimmers of it and others like you said he gets into these long foul off sessions which gets to his other problem that needs improving…
He has to go later into games and not lose it so fast. He improved on that last year starting in July.Before that he rarely ever pitched 7 Innings…
Dickey won all the games he did by going to 8 regularly which also makes it easy to keep the wins because you have your whole pen to cover 2 Innings.
I think this is a key year for him….
If he doesn’t take another step then he is probably all he is going to be…Thats not a Knock he is still a pretty good pitcher but likely not going to be an Annual Cy Young Runner…
13-16 wins will be his average.
If he does take that step then he could easily be a 16-20 game winner…
And then the only question Left to ponder will be who is Better? Harvey or Niese?
Metsie: Harvey is the projected Ace just like Seaver. We have to lock him up fast with Borus as his agent. That is tougher than said. Niese’s goal should be Pettite or at at least like Koosman /Viola types who were pretty good too. However all not HOF I know it sounds ridiculous saying Harvey is the next Seaver but the signs point to it. Harvey’s mechanics are the best I ever saw a pitcher have jut like a like a pitching machine.
Doesn’t sound rediculous at all….I said after his very first game that he reminded me an awful lot of Seaver…
but Still too early to lock him up long term though…
You really wouldn’t want to start paying big bucks while he is still pre-arb.
And never before he has actually pitched a full season in the MLB….
Your right they should (if he continues what he has been doing) buy out his arb year and extend him past his FA date…
But we have some time to do that.
If Wheeler develops like everyone expects, and Harvey continues his success what a great front 3 the Mets would have. Niese has improved every year and I like the potential for a Mets version of Maddux, Glavine, & Smoltz. No pressure to be those 3 former pitchers and most likely all hall of famers, but wouldn’t it be nice.
Neise is on a steady rise in the big leagues. He’s a dependable starter, someone many baseball teams would be glad to hand the baseball every fifth day. When Neise pitched in Binghamton I tried to get to the park to see every one of his starts. He had trouble with consistency in AA but has big breaking curveball was great to watch. Last summer I saw similarities with Gorski and Neise. In AA Neise had a bit more fastball zip but their approach to pitching was much the same.
Please don’t Jinx this guy, just let him be.
To put it differently, there would be room for Niese in EVERY rotation in Baseball right now.