17
2013
2013 Mets Projection: Shaun Marcum
An article by 
The Mets made arguably their biggest addition of the offseason in late January, when they finally filled in the slot once filled by R.A. Dickey. The man chosen to fill the spot was 31 year-old right-hander Shaun Marcum. Marcum is a seven-year MLB veteran with the Blue Jays and Brewers, and has spent the last two season in Milwaukee after being traded in December 2010 for Brett Lawrie.
Marcum has put up above average numbers throughout his career. He has a 3.76 career ERA, including his 3.60 mark since coming over to the National League. He doesn’t walk too many batters, with a 2.8 BB/9 rate over his career and a 2.4 rate since 2010. He has had success, even without great stuff. His fastball is quite slow fo a conventional pitcher, sitting in the mid-80s. He has had to utilize his secondary pitches his entire career to get hitters out, and has done so with much sucess, his primary weapons being his changeup and slider.
There are injury concerns with Marcum, which is why likely the sole reason why he wasn’t offered a multi-year contract this offseason. He has battled injuries throughout his career. In 2007 and 2008 as a full-time starter with Toronto, he missed some time, throwing 159 innings in 2007 and 151 in 2008. Marcum went down with a late-season elbow injury in 2008 that finished his season, and forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He was able to make a few minor league starts in 2009, but didn’t make it back to the majors until 2010.
2010 and 2011 saw better health for the right-hander. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Marcum pitched 195.1 innings in 2010 and rose over the 200-inning plateau for the first time in his career in 2011. LAst year, however, he missed significant time due to elbow and shoulder problems, and was only able to toss 124 innings. He was out from mid-May to late-August with issues, and wasn’t quite himself when he got back. After coming back from the DL, Marcum posted a 4.32 ERA the rest of the season, with slightly worse strikeout and walk rates. This made the signing of Marcum risky for the Mets. Luckily, they only guaranteed him $4 million, with $4 million in incentives. If healthy, he could be much more valuable than that.
Spring training has been promising for Marcum up to this point. He’s been throwing strikes and in his last two starts, has been impressive. He took some time away from game action to strengthen his shoulder, with the team claiming he wasn’t injured. Based on what we saw this weekend, it can be safe to assume that they were telling the truth, and that the hiatus was more of a preventative measure than anything else. He is staying healthy so far with no news of pain in his arm of elbow. That has me relatively optimistic for Marcum’s performance this season. If healthy, he is an above-average third starter who will be valuable piece in the Mets rotation.
2013 Projection:
3.80 ERA, 175 IP, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.1 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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Crossing my fingers that arm stays healthy. I like what I’ve seen so far in his SSS.
We’re going to need him because who knows when Johan returns and what he’ll give us once he does.
Hi Connor,
Yes, it’s a matter of staying healthy. What concerns me is not the elbow or what his record was coming back from shoulder injury but the shoulder itself being the latest indication of one subject to being injured . Reminds me a lot of Jim Lomborg who had a long career after coming back from that skiing accident but was never the same due to a nagging series of ailments that plagued him throughout the rest of his MLB life.
That no team was willing to sign him to any better offer has to make us think in terms of Chrises Young and Capuano. Young succumbed to those injuries and Capuano did make it back but not in terms of a quality third starter but more as a below average fifth one. Guess only teams in our position are willing to take on such risks.
Let’s hope that Marcum makes it one out of three of our reclamation projects to come through for us as planned. If so, we got a bargain.
I agree on the possibility that Marcum could be an annual injury risk but I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that he signed with the Mets. In reality there are always a host of teams looking for someone like Marcum on a low risk deal like the Mets got. Just because he ended up signing here doesn’t mean he didn’t have other options. The Mets are a good place for him to be, nice large stadium, guranteed starting role etc.
I do though, have to take exception to you view of Capuano. I think you’re underselling his performance the past two years. He’s not a flashy pitcher or anything but he’s been a mid rotation starter for the Mets and Dodgers. He’s the type of guy that people outside of a fanbase doesn’t necessarily know and that even inside a fanbase some don’t appreciate but he’ll go out there every 5th day throw a solid start, even mixing in a very good one, and give you a chance to win.
Hi Vigouge,
I know, I have a lot of disagrements with people when it comes to Capuano. Chris, of course, was a feel good story in that he pitched the complete season and he cost us very little financially.
However, one must look at his overall performance – pitching half his games in a pitcher’s ballpark his ERA nevertheless was three quarters of a run higher than the average (4.55 opposed to 3.81) and he was among the league leaders in home runs allowed with 27, he would hardly ever make it out of the sixth inning causing overusage of the bullpen and the only reason his record was 11-12 was because he got the seventh highest run support in the league.
Also, the scouts and players all noted that Chris’ velocity had been consistent throughout his starts and season – it was after the first go round in the lineup that batters caught up to him – hence the problems when it came to the middle innings.
And this is where I mention that seasonal stats could be misleading – take away that two hit gem of a shutout against the Braves and his ERA would be 5.03. To be fair, take away his worst performance – seven earned runs in five innings early in the year against Colorado – and his ERA would still be at 4.57.
Again, consider that he accumulated these lofty pitching performances in Citi Field where he made 16 of his 31 starts.
Now, for saber fans, his WAA was -.9 that season as well.
So I feel good that Chris was able to comeback from his injury plagued past, but as a starter, I believe he would have been sent to the bullpen on any decent team or pitching staff with more depth.
Connor, i luv your profiles. Why don’t you show your W/L or H/IP estimates? Curious.
I like Marcum a lot and see no reason why he cann’t backstop the rotation in ’14 also, while we wait for Wheeler to blossom and Fulmer / Montero/ de Grom / Mateo / Lara / Syndergaard to emerge.
Just like every GM.
Still waiting on that reasoning, BTW.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/01/mmo-commenting-policy.html
“Keep your language clean. I don’t swear here, and I’d appreciate if you didn’t either. I’d like for parents to feel comfortable having their kids read this site. I’m no angel, so if I can express myself without profanity, you can, too.
Please be respectful. We have fun here disagreeing with each other, but we do it with respect. Hate speech against and individuals or groups will never be tolerated.”
Connor, I was waiting to comment until the thread was “cleaned up.”
I think the wins debate is quite frankly a silly one anyway. I don’t think anybody would really suggest wins are not important – they are just less controllable. There is a difference right?
I mean heck, who in their right mind would have thought that in 30 starts, Cliff Lee would have finished with 6 wins last year.
I mean think about that for a second. On the surface if I say to some of your critics, Cliff Lee will win less than 7 games and toss more than 200 innings the immediate reply would be that he’d pitch terrible.
211IP
207H
207K
28BB
1.11 WHIP
This was how Cliff Lee performed. In reality, that’s all you can ask for from a starting pitcher.
217IP
205H
170K
49BB
1.17WHIP
This is what Johnny Cueto did and he finished 4th in the NL Cy Young.
Now you can find stats like ERA to make a better case for Cueto of course. But if you look at what they actually did on the mound, they aren’t that far off. Yet Cueto won 19 games, Lee won 6.
Predicting wins is nice, but the starting pitcher cannot control it as much as we’d like to think and Cliff Lee is the evidence of that.
I have always said that wins are half on the pitcher and half on the offense. If you included fielding, it’s even less on the pitcher.
The Cliff Lee example is a fantastic one.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a
His xFIP was the BEST in baseball, yet he had 6 wins. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season.
Another example to remember of course is Felix Hernandez. 40-35 over the past three seasons. Does that mean he doesn’t deserve the biggest contract for a pitcher in MLB history? Of course not.
Right, I mean tell me right now that based on performance only you wouldn’t have traded Lee for Niese. Yet Niese had 7 more wins. He didn’t pitch better than Lee did despite having way more wins.
I used Cliff Lee in the last prediction thread for a pitcher as an example as why predicting W/L is basically impossible in any given single season, people just don’t like to hear it, ya know?
Good article.
that gets asked on every thread. Bottom line, W-L is not included because it is way too dependent on outside influences (as in the rest of the team). the pen, how many runs they score for a guy, etc. are all largely out of their hands.
Fair enough. H/IP?
Thanks for the kind words Chicago Days.
I don’t like hits as a measure very much because it can vary a lot (more than you think) on defense, but I’ll throw out a number anyway.
8.4 H/9 (same as last year for Marcum)
Thanks Connor. H/IP is an important metric to me but i may over-value it. IS GO/AO useful to gauge a pitcher’s ‘stuff’? Sinker ballers induce more grounders but maybe comped against H/IP it’d be a useful metric?
I usually just look at WHIP as the quick and dirty #. basically, if they are keeping that low, meaning not putting men on base, everything else should be fine.
Enough is enough. It’s okay to constantly hate on Sandy Alderson or David Wright or Dave Hudgens. I don’t suppress free speech or your personal opinions. I hated George Foster, Mike Marshall and Juan Samuel. There I said it.
All I ask is to stop hurling insults, instigating or using profanity against any writer or reader.
For two of you, today was the last straw. For three more of you, you’re walking on thin ice.
“It’s okay to constantly hate on Sandy Alderson or David Wright or Dave Hudgens.”
Uhm, you forgot to add the Wilpons and one baby zebra. Can’t forget them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcMFsgA9iPo
Oh Juan Samuel!
One of my first memories of listening to WFAN was June of 89 when the Mets acquired Samuel for Lenny and McDowell. It was after a game in Philly when Von Hayes hit a GW HR off of Randy Myers. I am pretty sure I read that the Mets made the deal in the 4th inning of that game.
You know the Phillies made out like bandits in that deal. They also got Charlie Hayes, Mulholland and Dennis Cook in that deal by throwing Bedrosian to San Fran
Marcum will be a one year Met. If he gets off to a good start…trade him for a prospect.
Which Mike Marshall?
Nice projection and a agree with everything except for this
175 IP, 2.1 WAR
I think it’s going to be one or another, if he ends the season with ~2.1 war, it’ll be in fewer innings or if he pitches ~175 innings, he’ll have more war. I have no clue which one it’ll be though.