20
2013
2013 MLB Preview: American League East
An article by XtreemIcon
AL East At A Glance
New York Yankees: A lot of writers and analysts are picking the Yankees to finish third, and in the most wide open division in baseball, it’s certainly a possibility. The injury to Curtis Granderson will keep him out till May, Mark Teixeira’s injury could possibly require season-ending surgery, and Alex Rodriguez will be out till the All Star break at best. However, the Yankee won 95 games in 2012 without Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner and a plethora of DL stints for normally dependable starters, including C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. With Kevin Youkilis an upgrade over A-Rod, the steep decline of Mark Teixeira in recent seasons and Granderson’s comparatively short absence, I don’t see the Yankees as short-handed entering 2013 as they were in 2012. The only apparent downgrade was at the catcher spot, and if Ichiro can come close to replicating his 2012 Yankee numbers over an entire season, they won’t miss Nick Swisher too much. A lot of ifs, but who can in good conscience can count the Yankees out?
Tampa Bay Rays: Admittedly an optimistic prediction, the fate of the 2013 season rests on the shoulders of super prospect Wil Myers. Replacing BJ Upton won’t be easy because of the multi-faceted game he brought to the table, and we can put the speed question to bed right away. But Myers has shown some pop, and could fill out to be an eventual 25-home run candidate, and he’s probably already a more disciplined hitter than Upton is and will definitely hit for a higher average immediately. Additionally, scouts think very highly of his defense. He may not replace Upton right away, but he’ll come close and could enjoy a big second half after his first taste of the majors. When you add in a healthy Evan Longoria, a more mature Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb and Matt Moore, with Chris Archer knocking on the door and one of 2012’s top bullpens, the Rays are going places.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays are probably the consensus pick in this division, and it certainly wouldn’t shock me if they won 95 games, but we’ve seen this movie a million times before. The Jays won the 2012 offseason after raiding the Miami Marlins and acquiring the NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, but those same Marlins who tore down their team won the 2011 offseason. The Angels made a huge splash for 2012 and missed the playoffs also. The Jays also added Melky Cabrera who was in the midst of a career year until he was busted for PEDs. Just two clean years prior, he was statistically one of the worst hitters in baseball. If Dickey can successfully move to a notorious hitter’s park and a tougher offensive division, if the turf in the Rogers Centre doesn’t wreak havoc on Jose Reyes’s already-fragile hamstrings, if Cabrera doesn’t revert back to his pre-PED days, if Josh Johnson can finally stay healthy, if Edwin Encarnacion can come close to replicating his out-of-nowhere MVP-caliber 2012 and if Jose Bautista can avoid an extended DL stint, then the sky’s the limit for the 2013 Blue Jays. Like the Yankees, there are more if’s than you should be comfortable with, but unlike the Yankees, there’s not a lot of proven track record.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox had a roller coaster offseason, inking one of the worst deals of the winter when they signed Shane Victorino to a three year, $39 million contract. They attempted to compound that by offering an identical contract to platoon DH Mike Napoli, but a physical issue halted the deal and it was renegotiated to a far more comfortable $5 million base salary. Ryan Dempster will likely also flop. However, they did add underrated catcher David Ross and overhauled their bullpen. Jacoby Ellsbury has MVP potential if he’s healthy, and at the moment he is. Clay Buchholz returned from injury rusty at the beginning of 2012, but shook it off in the second half and had a very promising series of starts to close the season. Jon Lester is too good to repeat his 2012 faux pas. The Red Sox will win around 85 games and that’s not going to be enough this season.
Baltimore Orioles: Their mirage season in 2012 will fade and reality will set in for the 2013 Orioles. They are an improved team than the group who hadn’t won more than 70 games since 2005 prior to last season, but their unsustainable record in one-run and extra-inning games could conceivably shave ten wins off their total alone. Add how notoriously fickle a bullpen can be, and the league-leading group from 2012 could come back to earth. However, Dylan Bundy is the game’s best pitching prospect and already had a small taste of the majors. Manny Machado is no longer a prospect, but one of the game’s top young players. Nick Markaikis should be healthy in 2013 and it could finally be Brian Matusz’s time. The Orioles won’t win 85 games this year, but they certainly won’t be pushovers.
Projected Standings
XtreemIcon: Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles
Jessep: Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox
Joe D: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
Top Sleeper
XtreemIcon: Colby Rasmus, Toronto
Jessep: Chris Davis, Baltimore
Joe D: Will Middlebrooks, Boston
Top Rookie
XtreemIcon: Wil Myers, Tampa Bay
Jessep: Wil Myers, Tampa Bay
Joe D: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore
Top Pitcher
XtreemIcon: David Price, Tampa Bay
Jessep: Brandon Morrow, Toronto
Joe D: David Price, Tampa Bay
Top Hitter
XtreemIcon: Robinson Cano, New York
Jessep: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Joe D: Robinson Cano, New York
Up Next: American League Central
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
20 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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I’m a little bit surprised that none of you chose Dickey as Top pitcher.
I strongly considered him, but I just felt that David Price was the one I think will have the better season in 2013.
I can see that. Sort of like a 1A 1B type of thing.
I’m not expecting Dickey to have a great season in Toronto. We all know (or should know) last season was not repeatable, but I expect 200+ IP and a high 3/ low 4 ERA given the drastic change from NL East to AL East.
Hoping Toronto wins the AL East though…
xtreem: Jeter’s ankle is barking and may miss the beginning of the season. He appears to be “limping” into the season and into the twilight of his career, contrary to the belief of some here. So add that to your list of the Yankees’ wounded. Even if Jeter comes back soon, how is that ankle going to impact his fielding which is already so poor? Then there is their overall lineup which, with all those wounded players, doesn’t look so intimidating anymore. Cano will really have to prove that he’s not a choker this year as he won’t have all that protection in the lineup that he’s used to.
Bottom line is that I don’t think the Yankees are going to do well this year. Looking at those predicted standings, I agree most with both jessep and Joe D. But I’m going to go with jessep based on his prediction of Longoria as the top hitter.
the red sox/yankees game is on ESPN right now, and they just had a graphic comparing last years OD lineup to this years for the Yanks. Needless to saw, it was vastly different, and on paper way worse. And that is not even accounting for Jeter, who has barely played all spring and is still having ankle issues.
somehow a 37 YO SS feeling the effects of ankle surgery does not sound like something that will end well.
i read on this site about Jose’s fragile hamstrings from the usual characters countless times last year. Now after 160 games in the books last and evry inning of those at shortstop, i dont think he is any more of na injury as say JETER. Give me a break. Encarnacion has had good year leading up to last year. They are stacked. The Yankee lineup is AAA’ish after the 5 spot and youk is not an upgrade unless you like the .230 batting average and usual stints to the DL last year. I agree with Joe D. Jessep’s scenario could play out but Longoria is a huge injury risk and they will at some point succomb to losing key players every year. I think Baltimore will be better than people think. Scary thought – Jose reyes finally playing in a hitters haven ….25 bombs this year
Imagine Reyes playing over 120 games in hitters havens…
Boston is awesome for hitters…as is Yankee Stadium as is Rogers Center….and Camden Yards is pretty good too…
Melky…Jose…Bautista….Edwin Encarnacion…damn near half the lineup got that platano power…( notice how, unlike met fans… toronto fans have NO PROBLEM with this )
If the Jays turn a nice profit…Don’t be shocked if they sign Robinson Cano..it would be even more awesome if he went there for less money than what the Stanks offer him…
Projected Standings
Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles
Top Sleeper
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
Top Rookie
Wil Myers, Tampa Bay
Top Pitcher
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Top Hitters
Robinson Jose Cano, New York Yankees
Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays
Is Lawrie a sleeper? He’s one of the top young players in the league.
My projected AL East standings:
Baltimore (As long as Buck rights the ship, I doubt it will be a mirage, especially if the pen is as smooth as last season.)
Tampa
Toronto
Yankees (Shocking, right?)
Boston
Sleepers:
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
Moises Sierra, Toronto Blue Jays (should he get significant playing time)
Top rookie: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Top pitcher: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Top hitter: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
(My own topics)
Breakout pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
Breakout position player: Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays
You wouldn’t agree that a second place MVP finish removes all subsequent “sleeper” tags? Maybe comeback player?
I mention him as a “sleeper” because many still don’t know what they’ll get from him despite the 2nd place MVP finish in 2011. They see him as “injury prone” when it’s really freak accidents that keep him from playing a full season. Seeing that this is his contract year, he’ll probably have a big 1st half and used as trade bait with all the hype behind Jackie Bradley Jr. Either way, he needs an honorable mention.
Collins says Spin’s whole demeanor has been a big surprise this camp. Also if I heard him right he said he expects Spin when he plays to bat leadoff.
Love Manny Machado
How is youklis an upgrade over Arod? Are you serious? In the games Arod played he was 5 tool and played good defense. If he did not get hurt he would be around 20 homers and 20 steals. That’s a joke correct? To guys how Dan I get a gig on this blog writing?
How does Tampa bays season depend on Will Myers. It depends on their pitching and defense as always, come on man, Price has to be price, hello kaon needs to take a step toward as does Moore, and Cobb looks real good so far in ST so he has to pitch good, and Neimann is always solid kid rotation type guy in 5 hole, he always hurt but they have depth in the minors. Lol
I stopped after those 2 teams . This article is strictly a matter of opinion
Youkilis is an upgrade over A-Rod for exactly the reason you said. “When A-Rod is healthy…” Well, he’s not. He may in fact miss the entire season. Youkilis over the last two seasons has 36 home runs, a .346 OBP and .434 SLG% and plays good defense as well. A-Rod’s OBP was .357 with a .444 SLG% and hit 34 home runs. And those stolen bases are negligabile. A-Rod stole 14 more than Youk in two years, so I’m not concerned about an aggregate seven per year. So when two guys’ stats are largely a wash, and one is healthy and one isn’t, then who’s the upgrade over whom?
The Rays season depends on Myers because they’re returning mostly the same exact squad that won 90 games in 2012, except that Myers is replacing Upton. Hence the focus on Myers. Of course if the pitching stinks the team is doomed, which is why I made mention of exactly the same thing you did. But the team pitched well last year and hte same guys are coming back. What makes you think the Rays should worry about their pitching? I would worry more about Myers filling Upton’s shoes.
This article is 100% opinion, and I’m sorry we wasted your time. I feel I should warn you that there will be five more articles like this released, two of which are largely from me. The other three merely include my opinions. Maybe you’d prefer to skip those articles when they’re published in the future.
Confused about the ire over ‘opinions’. What aren’t ‘opinions’? Even comments based on ‘facts’ are opinions. And it would be very boring to simple cite a ‘fact’…and then end the sentence. The silent screaming Q would be…’Huh?’
Youk is not an upgrade over Arod. It is a wash stat wise,so then it would not be an upgrade or a downgrade, it would be a fill in, a upgrade would be a player filling in that has better stats or projected to post better stats, and that is just on paper, there is more to it than just paper. Your basically hoping Youklis can just match Arods stats, then add in the stats for players who subbed for Arod as well and tack that on to what Youks numbers need to be. Also Youk is always hurt, you are saying a guy who is constantly injured is an upgrade strictly because he is healthy now, if that is the case they can start anyone over there.
If Myers is the key to an intact Tampa team then I feel bad for them. I would think a team that lost James Shields and Wade Davis would like Cobb, Hellickson, and Matt Moore to improve and reach their potential to a team that relies on pitching and defense. Myers will be a nice mid season addition but the season depends on the rotation. The real guy if there is someone to pinpoint would be Moore since they think he can be an ace and step right in for Shields this year. Come on now.
Oh and projected standings are Tampa, Orioles, Toronto, Yankees, Boston,,,,,