17
2013
Will 2014 Be Any Different For The Mets Than The Past Five Years?
An article by 
I know that 2013 hasn’t even started and this maybe way ahead of schedule, but it is something that needs to said.
The thought coming into this year is that the Mets will use this season to play out the final year of large contracts, develop young prospects, and prime the team for playoff contention in 2014. Depressing doesn’t begin to describe how that feels, knowing that this is basically a lost season before it even begins.
For me the questions that arise from this are simple: Who exactly is there to add as a free agent and how will this team compete in 2014.
Let’s start with the free agents and which ones fit into the teams needs. Right now, the most glaring need is in the outfield where a right-handed power bat is needed and a legit center fielder who can preferably bat leadoff. This is of course assuming that Lucas Duda plays to this high standard that Terry Collins believes he can achieve, otherwise it’s safe to assume that all three spots will need to be addressed.
One option most fans will like currently pays just under ten miles away. Curtis Granderson can play center field, but is a lefty who strikes out more than I care for. Plus, his numbers at Yankee Stadium have drastically enhanced his abilities as a power hitter. Safe to say that if Bourne wast a legit option this season, the Grandy man won’t be next season. Jacoby Ellsbury? I have always liked him but he will be in his thirties, is way too injury prone, and is a Boras client meaning he will want unrealistic money/years that Alderson will not go to. Shin-Soo Choo? Again, liked but doesn’t exactly put the Mets in prime position for the playoffs. To me the only option is Hunter Pence, but the Giants will be hard pressed to keep him and his age next season will, like Ellsbury, probably prevent the front office from going over a four year deal.
Lets face it, the Mets can be put in quite a pickle next year in their search for outfield help. There is no young stud outfielder that Sandy Alderson will want to lock up long term, just good options that improve the team, but not on the level that we have been led to believe.
In the infield, Robinson Cano would make an incredible amount of sense but lets face it, the Yankees will give him whatever he wants, and if they do not, the Dodgers will be happy to shell out an eight year worth $200 million. I put a one percent chance that Cano ends up in Queens, and that might be too generous. The Mets seem content to let Murphy hold down second base until Wilmer Flores is ready, which could be soon.
On the mound, the Mets are in good shape, but should explore bringing in a pitcher like Matt Garza, or dare I say Roy Halladay, (which is not going to happen) simply to take the pressure off Harvey and Wheeler. Imagine if the “hope” for the future cracked under the New York lights and needed another year to get ready, which you can’t put passed the Mets luck. Plus odds are Johan Santana will not be brought back, (if he isn’t traded, which is the right move) so his spot needs to be replaced.
The willingness to spend and bring in free agent talent next season doesn’t ensure the Mets being competitive. My pessimism lies in the fact that if everything broke right and d’Arnaud is a stud, as well as Wheeler, the Mets are still not close to the Nationals, or even Atlanta. The Nationals are better in every aspect and aren’t going away anytime soon, seeing as everyone of their players is young or entering the prime of their careers. How about Atlanta? Atlanta is filled with young major league talent and have more ready to come, and are basically able to counter every prospect the Mets have. It is safe to say, the battle for the NL east will be between the Braves and Nationals over the next 4-5 years, with the loser getting a WC spot and the Mets battling Philly for third
But Mike, there is the second wild card spot!!! Oh yes I didn’t forget. Neither did the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, and Reds. All teams with ready to win talent on the roster now, and (with the exception of the Dodgers) more ready to come in the minors. Just two teams that have won World Series in the past three seasons and another who is loaded from top to bottom in Cincinnati Can you honestly say that the Mets are ready to contend with that?
I guess you can say having a chance for the Wild Card is “contending”, but is that really worth what we have been spoon fed since Alderson got here. Maybe make the playoffs and see what happens? Win a round if things break right? Good enough to sell tickets, but not to win a pennant or a World Series?
It is tough being pessimistic about this team. I have longed to be feel like I did in 2006 about the Mets. But to say that the Mets will contend in 2014 and beyond based on the hope of young prospects and “payroll flexibility” leaves me with a feeling as empty as Citi Field has been in October. To me, the Mets front office is selling the fans a dream, one that to me can only come true of the cities of Washington, Atlanta, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Cincinnati happen to fall into a three-year long slumber.
About the Author: Michael Barrett
A lifelong Met fan literally since birth, most of the greatest moments of my life in sports have come from the Mets. I currently work for MLB.com these days, which has only furthered my passion for the guys in orange and blue.
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In 2014 the Mets will not spend based on low 2013 attendance and blame it on the fans!
Yup..
and what this writer is saying…I have been screaming for over a year..
the free-agent pool is getting thinner and thinner….
so whatever excuses u had for last year…which sound identical to the ones this year…u can cut and paste them for as long as u want…
1 – if they are no doubt great players….they are too pricey
2 – if they are NOT no doubt great players….focus on their warts…too risky…
3 – if they are NOT no doubt great players…and NO ONE else wants them. Go for it, they will be cheap. But the second ANYONE comes in and outbids…even by a dollar….revert back to option 2…focus on their warts…say they are too risky
The Mets will not spend because as a choice for FA’s, Queens ranks second to last only ahead of Miami.
exactly…
a free-agent comes here only if he is either A – WELL OVERPAID…which Sandy is not going to do…
OR B – has no other option other than the mexican league
I doubt that the players are that down on the Mets as many of the fans are. There is still an attraction to playing in NY. Not every player wants to be on the west coast or in podunkville.
pretty much a moot point, because 99% of the time players take the largest money.
Remember, just last week, it was widely reported that Bourn’s first choice was the mets. He only went to Cleveland for the option year.
I don’t need expensive free agents- the Mets won an average of 95 games a year from 1984 to 1990 without the benefit of signing one free agent. How’d they do that? Investing money in scouting and development and strengthening the team through trades…
No team has done it on free agents alone, except possibly the 1997 Marlins…
Here’s a novel idea that hasn’t been tried in this organization in a generation- draft and more importantly, DEVELOP your farm system to a point where it yields you players who can help you and those who are desirable to other teams.
Sound too difficult? It shouldn’t, because it has been the blueprint for winning in baseball for 80 years.
Which takes me back to an ownership group who wants attendance but doesn’t care about sustained winning without seeing that the two are not mutually exclusive.
Connie Mack once said that he would prefer a team to finish 4th (in a league of 8 teams) so that the fans are excited, but the players didn’t win enough to earn higher salaries… sounds like the concept of having meaningful games in September except more honest…
how many top free-agents were signed by ANY team from 1984-1990
the game has changed. not a fair comparison.
But in the era of the building of that team- from 1978-1984, lots of free agents were switching teams- Don Sutton, Reggie Jackson, Pete Rose, Don Baylor, Carlton Fisk, Dave Winfield, Steve Garvey, Rod Carew, etc., were the cream of that second era of free agency in the early 1980s.
Free agency was huge when Frank Cashen dug in to start rebuilding the Mets. He made early throwaway trades for credibility- bringing in George Foster, bringing back Dave Kingman, and bringing back Tom Seaver for 1983. The first tangible trade was for Keith Hernandez and the Mets need to get lucky in that sense again- like they did with Keith and like they did with John Olerud 13 years later.
Then collusion came around 1985 when the owners decided to take their ball and go home- this lasted until 1988. Even then- Tim Raines and Andre Dawson became available…
so in 1984-1988…aka the years where the mets were building a winner and eventually lost it…free-agency across the board was pretty dry…
u cant compare that era with this one…
Ok first you left out Chris young and the guy they are most likely to sign in Carlos Gomez. Then you have to figure aside from Texas, and St. Louis The mets are all in on trading for Stanton and with another good draft and some deadline deals they should hAve the players in the farm to have a great shot at getting him or at least trading for another outfielder to play right. Maybe get Hart or Pence on a one year deal. There are multiple players available to fill the one rotation spot that needs to be filled, and depending on Parnells success this year at closer they might need to attempt to sign Hanrahan or trade for a closer. Lester, Jj, Garza to name a few are available next off season.
They will not be able to fill all the spots with long term peices nor should they force it, but they will fill some and stop gap the others. So they can essentially sign 2 to 4 free agents make a trade or 2 and be a playoff contender. Plus be starting the year with D’arnaud and wheeler on the club and who knows who else steps up this year for us. That is why they play the games.
Let´s assume that a year from now:
- Matt Harvey is a legit frontline SP, at least on a level of Mat Latos or Matt Garza (“Mat-connection)
- Zack Wheeler has flashed his tantalizing potential in the majors
- Travis D´Arnaud has shown that he´ll be at least an average, if not well above average MLB catcher
- Ruben Tejada & Daniel Murphy have shown more consistency
- Ike Davis has finally posted a healthy 2013 season without the inconsistencies that have plagued him so far
- one of the group of Duda – Nieuwenhuis – Valdespin – Baxter has emerged as an average major league caliber outfielder
- one of the group of Edgin, Familia and Mejia has emerged as a strong late inning reliever to join Bobby Parnell
- Jon Niese & David Wright have remained very good
- the Mets sport a 55 million $ payroll entering the 2013/2014 off-season and are happy to receive an extra 11 million $ in TV money from the National TV deal that kicks in for the 2014 season…thus easily can spend 30 to 40 million $ in the 2013/2014 off-season in spite of merely sporting a record-low 90 million $ payroll in 2014
1. Mets sign OF Corey Hart to a 3-year, 27 million $ contract.
2. Mets sign OF Carlos Gomez to a 4-year, 44 million $ contract.
3. Mets sign RHP Joel Hanrahan to a 2-year, 18 million $ contract.
4. Mets sign two relievers similar to Brandon Lyon, Scott Atchison, Pedro Feliciano and Latroy Hawkins for a combined 3 million $
5. Mets sign a veteran starting pitcher to compete with Rafael Montero and Collin McHugh for the 5th spot in the rotation, say, Chris Capuano for 5 million $
Your 2014 New York Mets:
SP: Niese – Harvey – Wheeler – Gee – Montero (or McHugh or Capuano)
RP: Parnell – Edgin (or Familia or Mejia) – two veterans (or Burke and Mazzoni) – Gorski ( or Carson or Leathersich ) – Hefner (or a scrap heap veteran spot starter / reliever, maybe McHugh or Capuano if they don´t crack the rotation)
Lineup:
1) Tejada, ss
2) Murphy, 2b
3) Wright, 3b
4) Davis, 1b
5) Hart, rf
6) Gomez, cf
7) Nieuwenhuis (or Duda), lf
8) D´Arnaud, c
Bench:
Recker (or Centeno), c
Lutz (or Flores), if
Turner (or Quintanilla or Hicks), if
Cowgill (or Lagares), of
Den Dekker (or Baxter or Valdespin), of
Total Payroll: 90 million $
And it does have a bunch of options for several questionable spots.
If Harvey – Niese – Wheeler come close to Strasburg – Gonzalez – Zimmerman or to Minor – Medlen – Beachy, that team can challenge the Nats & Braves.
And I hope our front office is a bit more creative than I am here, also coming up with a trade or two, dipping into the farm system that will be deeper with several more pitchers having advanced another year towards the upper levels and thus gained more trade value than today.
I’d prefer Beltran over Hart, but I like the overall picture you paint. I’d like to think Marcum or even Santana could be moved with a prospect for an OF player who could also fill that roll.
Maybe Marcum could be extended if he is pitching well, thus shoring up the SP for next year.
Yes. i was wondering y Marcum wasn’t mentioned by anyone. If healthy, in my view, he’s a legit option for the 5th spot in 2014. And trades are a legit way to deal for OF needs next offseason. And our system should have 4 – 5 hurlers (Familia, Mejia, Montero, Mateo, Fulmer, Mazzoni, Verrett, Pill, Robles,Ynoa, Lara) and even 1 2 position players (Murphy or Flores, Kirk or Zimmo or Duda or ‘Spin or Puello,Tovar) who might appeal to other teams in return for a legit OF or top OF prospect.
If all goes well, or just ‘some of it’ goes well, we should be true contenders in 2014 through a mix of trades, F/As, and player development.
First off Curtis Granderson is not a CF and the only reason he plays there is b/c Girardi is an idiot. He and Gardner should have switched years ago.
I think the Mets will be in a prime position to acquire Stanton or another stud young OF as Syndergaard could very well be a top 10 prospect going into 2014 and the presence of Wheeler and Harvey would make losing him an easier pill to swallow.
Stanton is probably a pipe dream although if the Mets can acquire a good young CF to leadoff the Mets could bring back Beltran for RF or sign Choo or Pence although this lineup could be very scary:
OF, Flores, Wright, Davis, Stanton, Duda, D’Arnaud, Tejada.
More realistically, replace Stanton with Beltran and have a young speedy CF and that is still a very good lineup.
Good post.
“the Mets could bring back Beltran for RF ”
excuse #1 – then the mets may have to give up a draft pick
excuse #2 – Beltran is old
excuse #3 – Beltran is injury-prone
excuse #4 – Beltran wants too much money and is risky
excuse #5 – Beltran would stunt ____ <(insert fringe prospect) development in the OF
Yeah, Beltran in ’14 on a 2 – 3 yr deal is OLD. A bunch of ‘you guys’ rag on the deal we gave DW, so y would a multi-year deal for Beltran ‘at that age’ also be a mistake? i have no doubt, it would. See: ‘A-Rod’, Ch 1 / Book 4.
Hi Chicago,
Oh indeed, Beltran should not be looked at for the future. For myself, I felt Carlos would be a vital part from 2011 through the end of this season. I think his performance the past two seasons shows he would have been a great asset AND would not throw a monkey wrench into any future plans to keep the team young because this would have been his last season as a Met.
Of course, with an outfield of Duda/Hairston, Pagan and Betran, 2012 would have been much different and certainly, our hopes would be higher for 2013.
BTW – I do have a question for all those excited about the kids projected to be our future. Would one’s enthusiasm be curbed if Wheeler wasn’t one of the many young arms in our system to look forward to? If the answer is yes, that doesn’t say much of the rest of the core for one rookie does not a team make. If the answer is no, that means that our future would still be bright even if no one ever heard of the name Zach Wheeler.
I know, many will answer that our future looks even brighter with Wheeler than without him. That is true, but then, would not have our last two seasons been brighter with Beltran – along with Pagan and a real closer? To me, that would have been the best of both worlds.
i agree with you on everything ‘cept Beltran. Carlos will be 37 yrs old in 2014–if we’re all p*ssing on DW’s contract that ends when he’s what ~38 yrs old, y i the hell would we sign Beltran to a 2 – 3 yr deal at that point, which you know, Boras would demand?
Hard to answer this question now. Have to see how some – who I assume are part of the Mets future – fare this year. Guys like Harvey and Wheeler and Niese and Ike and Ruben and Edgin – to name some.
No matter how these guys do in 2013, the OF must be addressed.
of the prospective FA OFs, Carlos Gomez makes the most sense. But, most likely, the other remaining holes will get filled via trades.
Agreed Dooby, nice example, could be players similar to that, does not have to be exact, point is they will be in position to move forward!
Stanton is far from a pipe dream, It will be tough because it is kind of obvious that Texas, Seattle, and St Louis can make an offer better than the Mets if they decide to. Plus they are in need, otherwise as long as the Mets can start a package with Synderguard, Flores, and one of Montero, Fullmer, Mateo, Tapia, or Robles they have a shot, then add in Cecchini or Plawecki and that is a nice offer, maybe even throw in Mejia who is destined to play somewhere else.Of course I am assuming these prospects enhance their value this season. With mid season trades this year it will just deepen the system, plus they have the 11th pick in the draft to deepen system as well for the trade, which is why it is not a pipe dream.
Mets can lock up Ike and Tejeda to deals, possibly Harvey as well. Then sign Gomez and a starter like Lester and add to relief and still have a similar pay roll. Of course they will try to add next year. they will be ready.
“Stanton is far from a pipe dream”
It would not have been a pipe dream had we took December and January to explore trading David Wright for prospects..which could’ve been sent to Florida for Stanton…
then pay Stanton a fraction of the money we were going to pay David Wright for the next 8 years..
In 8 years, Stanton will be 29…
u could sign him to a 8 year 80 mil deal…and sign Ike to a 5 year 35 mil deal….and sign Murph to a 4 year 20 mil deal…and it would’ve avg out to the same money we gave Dr. Dimples….
Instead, we probably only have Dr. Dimples…with a bunch of retreads and fringe prospects surrounding him
Suckas
This is the whiniest piece I have ever read on here.
Whaahh! Oh it’s so hard being a Mets fan – we are tortured!! Whaahh!!!
Go outside and get some sunshine.
^^^^ this guy
I just love how the Sandy lovers here all attack the author as whiny…
Yet they whined and moaned about spending and how BAD and HURTFUL it was to the team and instead wanted to see Sandy sell off NOW performers for future maybes who in the end they don’t believe is enough to make us winners and say we need to go on a spending spree in 2014 to make this PLAN work….
I even love Dooby’s insistence on only counting the Bills in calculating how much they will have to spend and completly ignoring the REVENUE picture that is very likely going to go DOWN not UP…
They lost 23 Million with a 91 Million payroll last year. Traded away thier biggest draw for a Catcher and something 3 years from now….
Their projected payroll is going to be somewhere near the 95Mil mark again meaning if Attendance remains THE SAME they will lose roughly 26Mil…If it goes down 160K they will be back to losing 50 Mil EASILY.
Loans will be taken out, No Free Agents will be signed unless they borrow the money to do it, and 2014 will be much like 2013…Lots of people putting all thier eggs in the HOPE IN A FEW YEARS basket because there is nothing credible to actully GIVE you some real hope for the inmmediate future….
LOL
You have longed to feel like you did in 2006. I have longed to feel like I did in 1986.
This.
1986 was a Met season for the ages. This is coming from someone who enjoyed the 1969 Miracle season as a pre-teen. 1986 was just so much fun from beginning to end. Those type of seasons – with the dramatic post season against the Astros and Red Sox, don’t come around all that often.
Oh wow, 1986 you just knew. All season long- but I remember the panic that set in when the Mets started 2-3 that year…
Just things happened- Ray Knight’s home run in a driving rain in April, Hojo in St. Louis, rallying on a dropped popup against the Giants, a crazy game ending double play in San Diego, the Eric Davis-Ray Knight brawl game where Dave Parker dropped a game ending fly ball in the 9th.. it was awesome well before the playoffs.
I only wish that being 40 now, and that taking place when I was 13 was not the highlight of my Mets fandom…
I think the Mets in 2014 will line up pretty well against the rest of the National league, with the exception of their outfield.
I also think that with another year of development, the Mets enormous amount of minor league pitching will give them enough arms to easily deal for a great outfielder.
Fulmer, Sybdergaard, Montero, Tapia, Mazzoni, Gnoa, Robles, Mateo, Lara, DeGrom, and Leathersich are a ton of legit pitching prospects and when your rotation is already 80% filled, it leaves you with a great strength to deal from.
That doesn’t even count Familia or Mejia, who right now, are in their top ten in prospects. That, coupled with 50 million coming off the books and another 25 million in MLB TV revenue, tells me that they are in a wonderful position come 2014.
Also, there’s another draft coming up and you can’t discount having another 4 or 5 good prospects in the system; further increasing the chances of a trade being a legit option in making the team better. You can’t trade recently drafted players, you must wait a year, but they help in softening the blow in losing a few top arms.
I’m just not worried about 2014.
In lieu of signing any marquee free-agents or making any major trades…
Wally Ball and the hope it brings will be used to sell tickets in 2014…
Always believed that one primary component of a team’s strength is “up the middle”, catcher, SS, 2b & CF. If you’re strong defensively up the middle, and those players can hit & run, chances are you’re in pretty good shape.
In that sense, Sandy & Collins really dropped the ball when it came to assessing proper value to the contributions of Reyes and Pagan to the NY Met engine, both offensively & defensively. Losing Reyes without sensible compensation is utterly tragic. Trading Pagan betrayed Collins distaste for him, which was downright prejudicial, but not in a racial sense. Terry just didn’t like him. What’s done is done, however… which makes the failure to acquire Bourn that much more quizzical.
Moving forward, time will tell how the Mets rectify these oversights. Can we acquire SF prospect Gary Brown, or Marlins prospect Jake Marisnick, both CFers? Do we wait & sign Carlos Gomez or Jacoby Ellsbury? What do we have, if anything, in Kirk, Duda, Brown & Baxter? Will den Dekker ever amount to anything? Durability should be factored into the analysis.
Pitching, on the other hand, appears to be solid. By 2015, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero & Fulmer/Syndergaard will emerge as one of baseball’s most formidable, young rotations. The bullpen will not be short on options, either, with names such as Parnell, Familia, Mejia, Tapia, Edgin, Carson & Leathersich at the front of a long line of young, strong arms.
Going into this spring, the everyday players on my radar screen are Wilmer Flores, Reese Havens, Andrew Brown, Lucas Duda, Kirk Niewenhuis, Juan Lagares, Zach Lutz & den Dekker. We pretty much know what all other everyday players bring to the plate. If two (2) of the aforementioned step forward, we’ll be in unexpectedly good shape.
Your right it is important to be defensively strong up the middle….
Which is why I can’t say all the pitching we seemingly have is going to shine without defense up the middle and hell not even defense anywhere in the OF grass.
I dont remember much of 1986 lol, was only 3 months old when they won. As for Stanton, I would literally trade anyone not named Wright, Wheeler or D’arnaud. The guy is a flat out beast and easily would be the most popular guy on the team if he came here/the teams best player. He is one of the few guys in baseball that literally can not be contained by any ballpark. Yet this again is a hope and dream scenario, though I do believe a guy like Snydergaard was important to Sandy in the Dickey deal because he doesn’t plan on him ever cracking the big league roster but to be used as a centerpiece for a trade this or next season. If you go into 2014 with a Stanton or elite level OF combined with our current infield, projected rotation, and an improved bullpen, now you are getting somewhere. Until then, it is hard to believe 2014 will be different than the past 5 years.
Hopefully Beltran never comes back, I was all for trading wright just for that reason, although there is no real third base free agents available soon to entertain, not much on the trade market, and it is a tough spot to fill. It is not a pipe dream if Syndergaurd and Flores improve even more. They are already top prospects at their positions as is, now if they flop then there is no chance of getting Stanton. Alderson will make a deadline deal or two and have a good draft to further enhance our chances, if they do not end up with Stanton maybe there will be someone else out there on the trade market to grab. Alderson knows fans will come just to see Stanton, and that he makes the Mets a legit contender next year with a peice or two extra, no way he does not go after him hard!
The way things are going now for the team – Santana will win the Cy Young this year and not be re-signed.
If Santana wins the Cy Young he wont have to be resigned…his option for next year will vest and he will remain a Met
very hard to imagine Johan hitting 215 IP, even if he was pitching at a cy young level.
The mets are nt getting Stanton. He becomes arbitration eligible next year and a free agent two years after that. This is his last cheap year. He is not signing a long term deal at a discount to buy out free agent years. Trout nd Harper might given they are two years behind him. Stanton will cost 150 – 200 million long term and Sandy Alderson does not know that number. He isn’t even wan to sign Wright. That was all Wilpon. Plus even if the Mets could pay him he old cost Wheeler, Syndgard, and Ike Davis plus more
Hi Mike,
Could not have said it better. It is obvious you can differentiate baseball the game from baseball the business and can clearly see that at least with the Mets there is a conflict between the two preventing the organization from actively trying to put together all the pieces required for building a possible competitor for long-term success. The methodology being professed is not a methodology at all or, at best, a very incomplete one.
If you think it is tough on you to be so pessimistic you can only imagine what it must be like for us who saw the Amazins’ in the Polo Grounds in the days of Marvelous Marv and Casey and when Ed Kranepool was still a senior at James Monroe High School.
Hope you continue to contribute to MMO – really enjoyed the way you put this piece together.
I think the Mets will be pretty good in 2014, but pretty good is different from contender. I think 82-86 wins would be realistic (if the Wilpons spend the Santana/Bay/Buck/Francisco money). Maybe that gets them a 2d WC. It’s hard enough to predict how a team will do before a season starts. It’s almost impossible to predict two seasons out. Too much can happen.