27
2013
Why Kirk Nieuwenhuis Should Absolutely Positively NOT Bat Leadoff
An article by 
Kirk Nieuwenhuis came up last season after CF Andres Torres went down. Billed as an athletic and toolsy outfielder with some promise, Nieuwenhuis hit the ground running raking to the tune of a .325 batting average in March and April. Then came some strike outs, and more strike outs, and then came a whole lot of weak grounders and even more strikeouts, which led to his demotion in July when he batted .105 — deer in the headlights.
This was the same player that had a .298 avg. a .908 OPS and a .403 OBP in AAA as a 23 year old, but major league pitchers figured him out. They’d pour in a couple of early strikes, some breaking pitches to mess up his line of sight, and would finish him off with a fastball up and in.
Early on Kirk was swinging at everything — including that first strike or two. With a 0 – 0 count, Kirk hit .364. He was clobbering get-me-over strikes. With an 0 – 1 count his average dropped to .250, still, not bad. Now all hitters do poorly with 2 strikes, but not quite as poorly as Kirk. With an 0 – 2 count Kirk hit .172, with a 1 – 2 count he hit .175, with a 2 – 2 count he hit .145 (!). Given a relatively neutral “start from scratch” 3 – 2 count, Kirk hit .129! Why would Kirk hit worse with a 3 – 2 or a 2 – 2 count than he would with a 0 – 2 count? Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe he was trying too hard to work walks on those counts. The take away here is that the more pitches Kirk sees the more his average drops.
The drop-off from the first part of his season (his first 6 weeks) to his 2nd half was unbelievable (he ended the season on a 9 for 73 skid), and while he did strike out a lot in the minors, he also put up some pretty decent numbers — especially in 2011 at AAA with a .408 obp. Sure the league adjusted to him, but 9 for 73?
Strangely, Kirk’s K-rates month to month don’t really tell us much – they’re fairly flat, but Kirk sure did make out more as the year progressed. He went from a 26.7% K-rate in AAA in 2011 (he was actually at 21.5% in 94 games in 2010 at AA) to a 31.2% rate in the majors which is a hefty jump, but lets chalk that up to the higher level of competition. 63 of Kirks K’s came after a first pitch strike and my sense is than an inordinate number of them were called strikes (Kirk needs to be swinging at that first pitch).
But here’s the kicker — again, forget about K-rates for a moment — Kirk hit .125 after working the count to 3 – 2 (for the season), he hit .138 on 2 – 2 counts, and on the ultimate hitter’s count, 3 – 1, he hit a measly .231. On the other hand, he hit .417 on 0 – 0 counts, .611 on 1 – 0 counts, and .522 on 1 – 1 counts. This is a kid who does not do well deep in counts.
Here’s another tidbit, of his 3 full months, his highest drop in avg (from .323 down to .263) coincided with his highest walk total (10) for a single month. Obviously after a torrid April it was impressed upon Kirk to try and walk more. This sent his avg into a tailspin from which it never recovered. In what universe would you preach patience to a player who seems to be at his best when he is most aggressive? A good development program tailors adjustments to talented players even when they aren’t perfect fits … this obviously did not happen for Kirk, in fact they defied convention and tried to make a high OBP lead-off type hitter out of him. Naturally, his performance tanked because his particular skill-set was disinclined to that particular role.
Did Kirk strike out more as he took more pitches? Not really, but he did make out more — his BABIP went from .453 in April, to .396 in May, to .283 in June, to .200 in July. Kirk, while not necessarily striking out more, had a ton of soft grounders mixed in with a healthy dose of pop ups and fly balls because he was too tentative and had completely lost his confidence.
Here’s the breakdown again:
HIGH pitch count
3 – 2 .125
2 – 2 .138
3 – 1 .231
LOW pitch count
0 – 0 .417
1 – 0 .611
1 – 1 . 522
Kirk hit .231 on 3 – 1 counts and .200 on 3 – 0 counts. These are hitters counts for crying out loud! David Wright hit .333 on 3 – 2 counts and .413 on 3 – 1 counts! Ruben Tejada hit .444 on 3 – 1 counts. Good lord even Mike Nickeas hit .333 on 3 – 1 counts! I think Kirk might simply be prone to getting his line of sight messed up when he see’s a lot of pitches and he swings at pitches out of the zone resulting in weak contact.
Another thing to consider with Kirk is that while batting eye rarely improves very much, power almost always does for young players. So here we have this kid who strikes out 31% of the time (Ryan Howard struck out over 30% of the time too), maybe he improves to 26% or 27% (closer to what he was in the minors). I’ll take that any day from a solid fielding Center fielder if it comes with an 800 ops and 20 – 25 homers … sort of a Mark Reynolds / Mark Cameron hybrid, but a lead-off hitter? No.
The premise is essentially pedagogical. I think there was a conflict of program and skill set that confounded Kirk’s progress. Teachers who tailor their instruction to their students’ strengths rather than focusing exclusively on the remediation of weaknesses tend see more improvement. You don’t try and teach a 350 lb. lineman how to play Safety. Nelson Cruz had a .319. OBP last year, did the Rangers bat him in the lead-off spot? Of course not, the vast majority of Cruz’ at bats were in the #5 and #6 spots. Sure, maybe Cruz has a lot more redeeming traits than Kirk, but Kirk was a pretty good player in the minors, who is to say he might not have shown a less gradual drop-off in his production in 2012 if he hadn’t been overwhelmed by having to bat lead-off?
Would Kirk benefit from being more patient in the here and now? I’m willing to entertain that (especially as his BB rate was almost twice what it was in AAA than it was in 2012), but putting him in the lead-off spot can not possibly help him in that regard — he wasn’t ready for it. What happens when you overburden learners before they are ready? Well, not only do they almost always fail, but you destroy their confidence, which is perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a young player.
If you’re going to make a more patient hitter out of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, you don’t do it by moving him from pre-algebra to particle physics in the same quarter. You do it gradually, and in the meantime, you’d hope there is room on the Mets for players who don’t fit organizational tenets but provide value in other ways. Kirk was a success story who’d shown improvement at every level and was coming off a stint in AAA where he’d put up a +15% walk rate and a +.400 OBP. He has the tools (speed, some gap power, good defense) to become a valuable player. The Mets need to recognize his strengths and talents and build a player based on them rather than trying to reinvent a Kirk Nieuwenhuis that bears no resemblance to the one who was brought up from AAA last year.
Did Kirk try to be more patient when he was put in the lead-off spot? Who knows, maybe he didn’t, maybe he thought screw you Collins you ancient white haired little gremlin, I’m going to do what got me here, I’m going to swing at every frigging thing they throw at me. That’s possible. Or, more likely, he was a good soldier, did what he and every baseball player and coach knows a lead-off hitter is supposed to do and tried to get on base at a higher clip.
Initially he was successful walking 10 times in May, but at what price? He sacrificed the aggressiveness that was at the core of his success, he became tentative and uncertain, his attempts to make contact resulted in an extraordinary number of soft grounders to go along with his already high strike outs and dwindling walks. Things went from bad to worse as he became ever more desperate to make contact and pitchers more and more pitched him outside the zone.
Putting Nieuwinhuis in the lead-off role is asking for trouble given his history. Will he fail? Well, if Collins is determined to bat him lead-off I would still root for him hoping against the odds that the succeeds, and if he does I’ll be the fist to acknowledge that perhaps he’s a better student of the game than I’d given him credit for, but it’s asking an awful lot from a rookie whose got some valuable redeeming qualities independent of his ability to work walks.
About the Author: Matthew Balasis
I’ve been a Met fan since August 1969 when a fire resulted in the Red Cross placing my family on the 6th floor of a building in Willets Point. I could see Shea from our balcony and I knew something big was going on. I followed them through the dark years and the resurgence of the 80’s only (sadly) to miss the fall of 86 because I was in Boot Camp. I've been serving penance ever since in Minnesota where I'm an SLP. I've written a lot about the Mets in an effort to share with my kids (and anyone else who might listen), a sporting tradition that made much of my childhood worthwhile. Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/MatthewBalasis
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Matt, i understand your point, very valid. however, you fail to suggest who then should be the #1 hitter in the lineup. Which is why i said that even though the $ at the time seem like a lot (based on reports) bourn to the mets made sense because he filled 3 needs we desperately need, Leadoff, Speed and Defense. who do you think should be the leadoff hitter? at least remember this, kirk has power, and remember, he started having injury related issues before being sent down, i think he’s a good enough guy to have there, we cannot say how a player will be based on 280 at bats as of yet, i’d say based on the roster we have to let him hit there with tejada second.. this is what the lineup should be imho:
Kirk
Tejada
Murphy
Wright
Davis
Byrd
Duda
Buck
Tejada or even maybe Murphy would be better in the leadoff spot. This kid Cowgill might be a good one too. Let kirk bat 6th or 7th where he doesn’t necessarily need to work the count.
Matt, then again, tejada might be good enough, but has no speed or no power to speak of, how much of a threat you’d think he’d be once he gets on base? murphy is a good contact hitter and one of the few players you trust with men on base on the team, why would you have him batting leadoff and weakeing the rest of the lineup down the bottom? Kirk makes sense because he can be a threat with speed or a HR here and there, and please, if you’re complaining about kirk then take a look a cowgill’s career total. the kid is a PO’s, has NO power, and for a guy with “Speed” 7 stolen bases and 6 caught stealing doesn’t say much… please do not mention him again, he’s nothing but a reject from oakland who was brought here god knows why, don’t be a ST prisioner of the moment i beg of you.
Remember again, Kirk’s first season rookie and all, is better than anything that cowgill has produced combined. Kirk is the answer because the mets were too cheap or BS to go get bourn.
Kirk has to learn to run the bases better as well before we can say that his speed is an asset in the lead-off spot. He was 4/8 last year in SB and only has 47 steals and 21 CS in 1300+PA in the minors.
Well, yeah, you’re right, but then again, he’s a rookie, he’s only 25 years old, and remember that being a bit injured started his decline, but i rather have his BA, HR and even his OBP ahead of cowsh*t i mean, cowgill….
Obviously because you are bias against Cowgill though. To me they BOTH have a lot to prove. I like Kirk but he may be more of a LH Frenchy than a Bourn.
‘I like Kirk but he may be more of a LH Frenchy than a Bourn.’
That’s my concern as well regarding Kirk.
Bottom line is the Mets don’t have a leadoff hitter right now. And they’re trying to ‘retro fit’ one for that spot. Sort of like what they’re doing with Duda in the OF and did with Murphy in LF and 2nd base.
Time will tell if one of these kids can pull it off – whether it’s Kirk, or Cowgill or Spin – or someone else all together.
Kirk: .252 .315 .376 .691 4 SB, 7 HR, 98K, 25 BB in 314 PA.
Cowgill: .255 .319 .311 .631 7 SB, 5 HR, 55K, 19 BB in 216 PA.
Their production is almost equal.
Looking at minor league averages:
Kirk in 5 minor league seasons: .280 .354 .464 .817
Cowgill in 5 minor league seasons: .291 .371 .470 .841
Again, it also isn’t like they are separated much by age either. Cowgill is about one year older.
Cowgill has nothing but 2 I REPEAT TWO HR’s…. not 5 AS YOU STATED to make him look not so bad…. Ohh, and only 5 doubles and no triples… in 216 at bats.. not the same you liar!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cowgico01.shtml
My bad, you are right, it’s 2. Honest mistake Alex. Not everyone has an agenda and when I screw up I admit it. Still we are talking about 2 HR in 216 PA and 7 HR in 314 PA. Certainly nothing to brag about. I think it’s pretty clear that Kirk has more power. I think it’s also pretty clear that Cowgill is better on the bases and doesn’t strike out as much.
How is cowgill on the bases? doesn’t he need to get there first (319 OBP) and secondly, 7 SB in 2 years is better than 4 SB in one year? do the math….
You do the math. 216 PA compared to 314. You can also do this math. 80/98 tries compared to 47/68.
Also, keep in mind that their OBP are very similar with a big advantage to Cowgill in the minors.
Also assuming averages, over 700 PA (which is what Bourn got last year) Cowgill would have 7 HR and Bourn had 9. Kirk would have 16. Again, pretty obvious that Kirk has more power, but he also would have 221 K’s over that time.
Well, in a 162 per, it gives me different stats on both with 500 at bats:
Kirk: 252 BA 315 OBP 376 SLUG% 15 HR 50 RBI 7 SB 25 DOUBLES 174 SO (and remember this, towards the last month or so he played, his numbers dipped big time due to injury)
Cowgill: 255 BA 319 OBP 311 SLUG % 4 HR 39 RBI 15 SB 11 DOUBLES 120 SO
Who you rather have???????
The 162 game average doesn’t give both players 500 AB’s on BR. It gives Kirk 559 PA and Cowgill 473 PA.
If you want 500 PA then you will get:
Kirk 11 HR, 6 SB, 156K’s.
Cowgill 5 HR, 16 SB, 127K’s.
Cowgill has 80 steals in 98 attempts in the minors (81%). I’m not sure the idea that he can’t steal is really valid. He clearly has enough speed to do it. That’s half the battle.
i am bias right? and yet look at your comment about kirk, yet stop at him, thoughts on cowgill as well to prove you’re not bias…. go ahead. i’ll wait
“To me they BOTH have a lot to prove.”
What is bias bout that. Actually are you saying that comparing Kirk currently to Frenchy is a bad comparison? Is that worse than you calling Cowgill a POS?
Hell, based on money, wouldn’t you want a frenchy like production from francour? great defense, power. hell, as bad as francour has been, he’s avg per 162 games in his career :
266 19 85 740 OPS i’d take that any day thank you…. SMH… Cowgill is a PO’s only sandy lovers are going goo goo gaga over him because sandy brought him in. don’t be a ST prisioner of the moment. this is brad eamus situation 2.0 relax buddy. he’s nothing but a bench filler on a bad to mediocre team.
Again, their stats are SO similar in the minors and majors that if you are calling one a POS they both have to be.
Wel,, fine, but i rather have our PO’s than someone else’s. i mean, you got a kid coming from oakland, where there’s a bunch of guys trying to prove themselves and yet, they let this guy go because they didn’t need him. shouldn’t that tell you how highly they think of the guy? again, funny how quickly you guys are dismisive of kirk and valdespin, yet so quick to praise guys like cowgill, brown etc based on nothing but because sandy brought him here… you guys are something else…the double standard continues. Kirk and valdespin are not good and don’t deserve to be up, but guys with less productive numbers should be given the chance to prove themselves, ummm, what??????
Alex, how many times do I have to say that I like Kirk. Go back and read all my comments on him. I have high expectations for him. In fact I challenged you when you said that Sandy had surrounded the team with crap and said I didn’t believe that Kirk was crap.
In fact I still like Kirk more than Cowgill but to me they BOTH have a lot to prove and are BOTH right on the border of either being MLB players or 5th OF/Minor league guys and if they don’t take advantage of this opportunity that is what will happen.
TRS, EVERY Met OF have a lot to prove. hell, i don’t care who is the ones manning the OF if they’re producing, don’t criticize nor say kirk doesn’t belong in CF or as a leadoff when the other options you mentioning are worse than he is… It’s my point.
Did I mention Cowgill at leadoff either? I do think his minors numbers show he would be more suited for lead off than Kirk and that because of Kirk’s power but K’s he might be better off in the 7 spot but I am willing to let Kirk have a try there. To me I think IF they were using the best guy right now to lead off it would have to be Tejada by default.
Tsk tsk tsk. When will you ever learn to be impartial?
I like Murphy in the 1 spot, but people are too hung up on stolen bases. Never mind the fact that a guy like Murphy can hit 50 doubles and wind up on second base without risking a caught stealing.
Or maybe he doesn’t excel in pitch recognition.
Wasadeyo, fair enough, but then again, he’s got good enough speed, got power and remember, from one year to the next, players change. maybe, just maybe he is what he is, but if he gived us 275-290 BA 10-15 HR 50-70 RBI 340-365 OBP 20-25 SB while playing above average defense wouldn’t you be happy? specially because he’s cheap right?
Sorry but I can’t imagine Kirk batting 70 runs in =/
Matt,
Pedagogical – WTF? Have you been hanging out with Alderson? Just kidding. Excellent article but I agree with Alex’s point 100%. The Mets continue to act like a salvation army organization and cram players into roles they aren’t suited for because they are simply too cheap to pay for the required skill set. Not to go down the Bourn road again, we all know he had his flaws,. but getting him or a guy like him that is a professional in 3 needed roles for $48 mil over 4 years is what teams that want to win do. This would also help other players on the team as you say “play to their strengths”.
I also agree with the other theme in your post that the Mets are overly trying to cram their “high OBP” philosophy. I can’t count how many times last year I saw opposing pitchers just groove one down the middle for strike 1, or strike 2, having no fear. Some of this has to do with the limited talent at the plate, but some has to do with scouting and expecting an overly passive approach. We all know high OBP is desired, but giving away pitches is almost certainly a way to net lower OBP. I sure hope they have some more guys going up hacking on some days, not senselessly, but they really need to mix it up to be less predictable and force the opposing pitchers to be a little more defensive.
TJ, which is exactly what we were saying in some articles written yesterday, the passive approach works if you got studs in your lineup who will make you pay for being behind on the count, but they became too pasive and again, once the league caught up with what the mets were doing, they were coming at them throwing strikes right down the pike. bourn would’ve been the answer for the obvious reason, but that #1 round pick was too valuable for them, now we are left scratching our heads posting articles like this, because at the end of the day, there’s no right answer on who should be the leadoff.
Thanks TJ, wasn’t sure what word to use besides “pedagogical” lol. In fairness I don’t think what Hudgens is preaching = being passive, but it may become that for players ill equipped to becoming more “selective.” The approach is probably a good one overall, most hitters should benefit from improving pitch recognition and being more selective, but there are always notable exceptions — sometimes very talented exceptions — who don’t fit the profile. The problem (as I stated on another thread yesterday) is that this front office works almost exclusively in the aggregate — the cumulative approach to stats, they try to institute a program that hopefully when employed by every member of a lineup will produce the desired result, but by doing this you may be complicating the development of players who aren’t naturally predisposed to the approach. Vladdy was certainly one example of a guy who would swing at everything. Would this organization pass on a player like that? I should hope not.
Yes, your article yesterday was very interesting and well done. I don’t quite agree with the conclusion that Bourn, or let’s say a Bourn type, won’t have a big impact. If the Mets somehow plunk a leadoff hitter on this team that can get on base 35% to dare I say 38% of the time, steal some bases, but more importantly, score runs via the use of speed, it will benefit multiple players – DW, Ike, Tejada, and the pitching staff. Add in plus D in CF, more benefit to the pitching staff, and in total there is impact. To me, that leadoff spot and D in CF is more important that a RH power bat not named Giancarlo.
To me Kirk might be more of a #7 hitter than a lead off hitter. However, I am willing to give him a chance to not be a hack and miss type guy in his 2nd time round.
That’s where I believe he should be in the batting order too. I also don’t like a few things management does in regards to adjusting a plan to an individual players skill set. They tend to force things that doesn’t allow for success on both the pitching and positional players. To me that’s why Collins should return to be the Minor League Field Coordinator where these kind of Organizational philosophies should be implemented not here in the Majors. I hope these actions don’t blow up before being addressed.
But ultimately in order to be a better hitter he has to try and be more selective. Doesn’t matter if that isn’t HIS game. HIS game right now will most likely make him at best Frenchy and even more likely a 5th OF. I do think he has time to improve and that’s why I am fine with giving him a chance at lead-off to see if he can improve on that issue.
Yeah, 6th or 7th, that’s where I’d bat him.
This is why some people call others slu****, sandy lover’s and sabergooner.
Criticize a rookie for striking out too much, fail to point out any good intangible he may have, just focus on the strikeout, saying he’s no leadoff hitter, YET, they want a guy with this stat line as the leadoff hitter:
216 PA 50 HITS 5 DOUBLES 0 TRIPLES 2 TWO HR 255 BA 315 OBP 310 SLUG % 310 SLUG % 310 SLUG % 7 SB
You guys never fail to amaze me with the sucking up to everything the guy does… he can bring in the biggest garbage on earth to the team (Maybe he did, Chin lu hu or eamus, pick one) and still most of you will find some good in that player just because your lord brought him aboard…
Yet, you guys want us to love that player because he’s a met, but it’s ok to sh** on the player’s who have the same amount of playing time or less than them (Valdespin, Kirk) just because they’re not sandy’s kids… SMH… You guys are something else
Huh? It looks as though they both have some issues to overcome. However, it also is surprising how much their production actually matches each other.
The Mets really lack a player with leadoff skills. When he plays, I think they should use Baxter at the top of the order. He often draws walks, is poised and patient and lacks the power of a three through six kind of hitter. Drop Kirk in the lineup to sixth where he might have more extra basehit opportuniites. Some consider the sixth slot a second leadoff role, but he could certainly be more of a free swinger in that slot.
By the way, I loved the piece, felt it was wekk researched and very interesting to read.
Baxter is surprisingly quick too … that’s not a bad idea. There’s also Valdespin. I have to say, based on speed and a general disruptive approach, he may be one of the better options on the roster to bat leadoff.
I don’t believe all the nonsense about Valdespin not making the team. I think they’re playing head games with the kid, trying to make him “earn it” and whatnot. He can play the OF (CF no less) and back up the IF, yeah I would say he’s got a pretty good shot.
AAAA player. Call him when you need him.
Valdespin is the closest thing to a potential Leadoff hitter we have on the roster and the problem is he is just a bit too free swinging to be very good at it!
He has the speed to be the guy he just doesn’t have the discipline to be the guy….
But then again Mookie did pretty well as a leadoff hitter and he was as much a free swinger (maybe more) than Valdespin is….
The problem is where are you going to play him everyday?
Unless you trade Murphy there really is no place to put him.
And I do not support trading Murphy unless it’s part of a Stanton deal where I can then move Valde to 2B.
Valdespin is pretty good with the glove too at 2B if I recall.
In fact, what would be so bad about the following lineup?
Valdespin RF
Tejada SS
Wright 3B
Ike 1B
Duda LF
Murphy 2B
Kirk CF
D’Arnaud C
A little too lefthanded if you ask me….
And I’m not sure valde is a decent guy in the OF yet…
I would prefer (if he plays OF)
Valdespin
Tejada
Murphy
Wright
Davis
D’Arnaud
Duda
Platoon CF (Kirk and maybe Cowgill)
I know convention says to bat Wright 3rd but call me unconventional…I think Murphy with his high Contact/BA and Gap power is the better choice to bat 3rd and he also breaks up the R/L splits better.
I know everyone thinks your best power hitter should bat #3 but Keith wasn’t our best power hitter and he did pretty good batting 3rd and I always prefer a Lefty who when he pulls the ball can advance the first two runners further than a RHB who pulls the ball to LF can.
Wright aside from Davis is our best HR threat and more of a HR hitter than Hernandez ever was…In fact Murphy’s power is much more like Hernandez’ (When projected over a full year with last year excepted) and with his high average a much better #3 than Wright.
Batting order doesn’t matter much. Just give the highest obp guy the lead off and order it from there to maximize abs for best guys. It isn’t very important.