18
2013
This Is How The Mets Can Win 85-90 Games in 2013
An article by 
Almost everyone is going to pick the Mets to finish fourth in the division. That’s a given. They are looking up and down at team rosters, and giving their projections based on the players on those rosters. A roster is simply a list of names. It can’t tell you if a player is going to have an up year or a down year, it can’t tell you if a player is going to get injured or not, nor can it tell you if the guys on that roster have the heart and determination it takes to win baseball games. So while the analysts make their predictions based on names on a roster because those names are associated with better baseball ability, there is really no telling what can happen over the course of a 162 game season.
But who will replace Dickey’s wins???
Another flawed way to try and determine whether or not a team can win a specific number of games is by looking at the starting rotation, trying to project how many wins each pitcher will have, and then adding them up. Another major mistake is asking oneself who is going to replace the twenty wins that R.A. Dickey tallied in 2012.
This way of thinking is so fundamentally flawed that I don’t even know where to start. While pitching is very important, let’s not forget that there are still eight guys on that field playing the game. Dickey did not win twenty games by shutting out twenty opponents, his other teammates actually contributed as well. In fact, trying to ask where the Mets will get those twenty wins from is a waste of time. It’s safe to say that the average wins that the ace of a team gets is 17 in a season. That would mean the Mets really are only looking at making up three games at most from losing Dickey, not twenty.
Sticking with the pitching projections, if you add up all their predicted wins from the starting rotation you can’t forget to add all the wins that the bullpen accumulate throughout a season. Any wins that the many potential call-ups and spot starters accumulate also have to be included. But this really is a waste of time when trying to determine how many wins the Mets will garner in 2013.
So how can the Mets win 85-90 games in 2013?
The same way teams have been winning games for over a century: with solid pitching, good defense, getting on base, and timely hitting. It doesn’t matter who is on the roster if the team can’t accomplish those things.
The Mets have to break the game down incrementally into it’s simplest form: innings. They have to treat each inning as if it is a mini-game. The goal is to win more innings than your opponent. Baseball games are nine innings for a reason; if your team wins five innings, and your opponent wins four, you win the game. It really is a best out of nine series. The Mets have to take the season inning by inning, and then when all those innings are added up, it should translate in the win column. Met prospect Jack Leathersich actually said as much to Joe D. just last week in his interview with him.
Halfway through 2012, the Mets found themselves ranked in the top ten of the MLB Power Rankings.
How easily we forget that in 2012, the Mets were on pace at one point in the season to win over 80 games. They were winning games with solid pitching and timely hitting. That’s the classic recipe for winning baseball games. The Mets were ranked as high as ninth in the MLB Power Rankings and Mets fans started to believe that there could be a playoff run in the future. However, after the All-Star break, the team never did get back on track. I’m sure one of Terry Collins‘ goals in 2013 will be to get off to a hot start like the Mets did in 2012, but this season, keep his team motivated and finish the season just as strong as it starts.
Everyone complains about how awful the Mets outfield looks now, but did it honestly look much better before the 2012 season? Maybe a tad, but let’s not kid ourselves. Did you ever consider the Mets outfield in 1969 and more recently in 2000?
Scott Hairston had a great year, but nobody anticipated that. Aside from Hairston the Mets outfield was equally as awful in 2012. Who is to say that the Mets won’t get another outfielder to step up in 2013? Maybe this year the Mets will have two surprises instead of one. One of the great things about having a lot of youth in the outfield is that these guys will play hard because they want to stick with the team. That means the potential of one or two of the young guys stepping up in 2013 is actually promising. And while the outfield may still be a question mark, the Mets infield has the potential to be one of the best in the entire National League.
The Mets also received virtually no offensive output from the catcher position in 2012. In 2013, this trend should change. Travis d’Arnaud should be arriving some time in May, and should easily be able to out-perform the Mets catchers from 2012. He will inject at least fifteen home runs into the lineup over the course of the season, and the healing process for the fans that were heart-broken when Dickey was traded will begin.
If the analysts projections were correct every year, then what would be the point of playing the season out? They could all save us a lot of time and hand out trophies based on rosters. However, this is not a contest for putting together the best roster on paper, this is about winning ball games. The Mets can win over 85 games in 2013 if they stick to the winning formula: solid pitching, good defense, getting on base, and timely hitting.
While one prominent Mets site has Policed the situation, concluded his investigation, and determined that there is no evidence to suggest that the Mets can replace those 20 wins from Dickey, I say this Mets team is still innocent until proven guilty.
There is a lot to look forward to in 2013 as Mets fans. There are some exciting young prospects waiting in the wings and if the Mets stay healthy, they are going to sneak up on a lot of teams this year. This is going to be an exciting season of Mets baseball.
2013 New York Mets Prediction:
88-74, 2nd Place N.L. East
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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2013 New York Mets Prediction:
88-74, 2nd Place N.L. East
What is this? Some type of a joke? Are we getting punk’d here?
Come on Alex. Just be a little optimistic and hopeful for once. If it always makes you angry, why even watch baseball?
I am optimistic, but i am also a realist. there’s no way, and i mean NO WAY in hell the mets with the current roster win 88 games…
Did anyone think Oakland would win over 90 games last year with that roster and in a division with the Rangers and the Angels? How about the Orioles?
So yes, the Mets can win 88 games this year.
I dont think anyone would BET on that happening, but yes it could happen. We’re not the Astros.
“Can win”
That is a big statement. If all the stars and planets align, the Mets CAN win 100 games. But the likelihood of that is almost nil (about as good as the odds of winning the lottery).
You need to focus on what is likely. If you believe the Mets winning 88 games is likely, then fine. But do not go with they “can win” that many.
Mitch, i like you, but i think Joe D should test some of his writers for ban substances here…
This time of year gets me excited…always has
Kate Upton gets me excited too but I don’t have delusions of having a shot with her this year! LOL
Hey, you never know…She’s single again
LOL I’m 50 dude!
So unless she has daddy issues not going to happen!
Geez, 50?
Ive gleened over a number of your insidious tit for tat spar sessions with other bloggers on here and let me tell you that I would have NEVER imagined you were a grown man.
I actually thought you were a teenager. Not trying to rile you up, it was just my honest assumption over the past month.
Yep and you thought all the folks who beieve in Fairytale seasons, Magical baseball fairies and think everything in life turns out for the better and EVERY story has a happy ending were the seasoned adults who know things always come out good if you think they will hard enough?
And the pessimistic guy who knows it takes a lot of hard work and constant improvement to succeeed was the young child…..
Don’t go into the business of profiler….You will fail miserably!
A spry 50.
Alex don’t be too hard on Mitch….
We shouldn’t have problems with someone being optimistic especially a guy like Mitch…
Cause while he can think and write of scenarios where optimism ensues you know he is also the first one (well maybe next to JoeD) who will call this duck a duck when the games start being played!
I don’t have a problem with people having hopes and optimism towards the season…
What gets me is when they take thier optimism as a FACT and argue with anyone who isn’t drinking the same koolaid as if we don’t know what we are talking about….
You want to dupe yourself, be my guest!
Mitch isn’t one easily duped…He wrote a happy peice because at this point in time he can….
and if it turns to crap he will be sure to say so cause Mitch isn’t the type to LIE just to feel better!
Unlike many others here!
Hi Metsie,
Good words about Mitch in which I share with you. Just shows how those from opposite sides of the fence can have a healthy disagreement with respect for one another.
Thanks Joey & Metsie,
I really do feel like this team has enough talent to surprise everyone and we are maybe one player away from a serious run this year, that’s why I was disappointed that they didn’t get the Bourn deal done. The lineup would have been very, very formidable with Bourn, but I also think it will be a lot better than most think even without Bourn. I look at the NL East like this – I think everyone agrees Washington should win the division – I’m not sure the Braves starting pitching will be as strong as the Mets and the lineups are pretty close, even with the additions of the Uptons – I’m not convinced the Phillies will be able to stay healthy, and they’re getting older – The Marlins are definitely going to finish last – so the Mets can definitely sneak into the 2nd spot in the NL East. I honestly feel better about this Mets team than I did about the 2012 team. And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong – but I’m not counting this team out before they play their first spring game.
Wll Mitch if anyone has been reading between the lines on my posts it’s pretty obvious I have thought this team is one maybe two players away from competing and I have thought that for close to two years now!
Which is why I have bitched and moaned about the lack of effort to GET THEM or even KEEP THEM until Harvey and Wheeler got here to get that extra bit they needed….
I have said for two years straight what we need is a Power Hitting RH Bat..Preferable one to play the OF. That COULD have been a re-signed Beltran or someone else I didn’t really care.
My only bitch about the “REBUILD” is it’s the wrong time and the wrong way to go about it…
When you completely suck and get a bunch of top picks you rebuild.
You don’t go about MAKING your team a top round picker by trading away your best player every year and kick the can 4 years down the line…
IF This team is as you (and I) believe one or two players away any TWO of the 4 we dumped might have been those guys and while I don’t care if they were passed over in the name of someone else at least there would BE that SOMEONE ELSE!
Never happened…..
Can they surprise everyone this year? SURE they can…They Surprised the hell out of a lot of people last year didn’t they just before the GM pulled the rug out from under them and kicked them in the teeth…
Thats my biggest concern in all of this…
Even when they play thier Met Lovin hearts out it doesn’t seem to matter….If you play well your more valuable in 3 years from now kids than riding out the success and seeing what happens it seems.
As I have said MANY times…the CORE is HERE, has BEEN HERE…TIme to build around it and stop all this talk about Wilpon Money. How much a player gets, Phobias about any contract longer than 3 or 4 years and paying Market rate.
#### or get off the Pot there Sandy….
My pessimism is not as much about the players as it is about the guys who seem to do everything to ensure they don’t win anything until 3 years from now.
The core is here, has been here? Really? How come it couldn’t get past 79 wins? Rather that’s why the core got sent packing. They spent more time in the tub then they did on the field and when they did stay on the feld they didn’t get it done. Choke! That’s not a core! That’s a sore!
Pitching!
Any Questions…
Oh and the team that won 79 games didn’t include a full Beltran did it?
So having Beltran would not be the SAME TEAM that only won 79 games…
Unless he got hurt again since he didn’t….
NEXT!
No that team was 11 games over 500 on a pace to win 90 games without Beltran and wound up winning 79 games with him. The following year with him they were a 500 team. And pitching was not the problem in 2010. They pitched ell enough. They sucked offensively because of a lousy on base %.
You mean the team WITH BAY and not a struggling Beltran trying to get his swing back were above .500….
And the other thing is a flat out lie….
They were above .500 before K-Rod and Beltran were traded….
They were a .514 Win Pct on July 28th of 2011 when Beltran got traded…
So all Sandy did was make them as good as losing Beltran a half season did in 2010….
So Sorry you got caught lying again….
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2010-schedule-scores.shtml
On Sunday June 27th the Mets reached their high water mark of 11 games over 500 with Beltran on the DL having not yet played a single game that season. You caught nothing! Lying is your specialty. Own it.
After 32 games they were 14-18. After 42 games they were 20-22. After 52 games they were 24-28. After 62 games 30-32. After 82 games 1 over the halfway mark they were 41-41. After 92 games they were 46-46. After 102 games they were 51-51, 2 days later Beltran was traded at 53-51,2 days later theu were 55-51 high water mark. after 112 games they were 56-56. After 122 games they were 59-63. after 132 they were 64-68. After 142 they were 70-72. After 152 games they were 72-80 and went 5-5 last 10. Yeah like I said they hovered around 500 all year long even with Beltran and K-Rod. I rest my case.
Fonzie said “The following year with him they were a 500 team
BULLSHIT!
You LIED!
Um no I didn’t. They were pretty much a 500 team all year long. Just look at the records I just posted. A game or two over then back to a game or two or three or four under. 500 team which is mediocre.
Um Yes you DID!
Fonzie13 February 18, 2013 at 11:21 pm
Thank you for playing Fonzie lies through his teeth!
Sorry you didn’t win and we have no consolation prizes for you….
No I proved they were a 500 team. Lying is what you do and then accuse everybody else like for an example saying K-Rod never ever throws change ups and curve balls. I proved you wrong yet again on that one too. Among dozens of others like Jeff Kent didn’t play 3rd base for the Mets and Jeff kent was the only Met 2nd baseman to have a 20 HR season when Alfonzo did it twice. ETC…. Many more to add to that.
No you proved 2010 they might have been a .500 team but the year FOLLOWING (2011) they were a .514 team cominf off a .519 may, .593 June and a .519 July!
What was thier Win Pct after beltran was traded in Aug and Sept!
You LIED and got CAUGHT!
And I don’t know what the hell your babbling about regarding Jeff kent I never had any conversation with you regarding him….
Just more LIES from the MMO Liar!
Maybe if the season was only 4 months they would’ve been a 500 team but unfortunately for you it’s 6 months long and they were 5-13 with Beltran to start the season which made all those over 500 months moot because you can’t discard the 5-13. They played 12 games under 500 with him the year before after playing 8 games over without him. So much for being worse without him.
Hi Mitch,
While I think this team is now more than one or two players away, I was so impressed and proud of then during that first half of 2012 season with the way the they played despite the moves that Sandy made which did not help them and a non-productive Davis and injured Bay. They were winning because of the starting pitching and position players that had already been there plus the heart that could not be measured by any statistical computation. But we needed help for half a team cannot carry the full load for a full year.
That’s also why in 2011 we could have used more of “ya gotta believe” than “we don’t think this is your year” as I noted on another topic. Instead of dumping our closer and top hitter, Sandy could have left the team alone or chose to add a player to help instead of dismantling it.
Of course, I bet it would be tough even for your team if those around you kept on saying you were not good enough to win even when you were – no matter what the rationale was.
Again, that’s why I don’t have high hopes for this season. I can even see d’Arnaud and Wheeler making mid season contributions and it still won’t be enough for us to then become “buyers” like we were told last season.
Hi Metsie,
Sorry that I’m basically repeating what you just wrote, however, I began writing before six, stopped for supper, hung some pictures on the wall and got back to it before seeing your own follow up to Mitch.
Of course, we both see things the same way and I think had we been in the Met clubhouse in late August, 1973 (you being a ten year old needing to be accompanied by an adult like me at the ripe old age of 21
) we too would have told the team “ya gotta believe” instead of that other message they’ve been getting that past two years.
What was the message sent in 2010? That team was 11 games over 500 in June, much better than either of the 2011 and 2012 teams.
Hi Dr. K,
The message we all got in 2010 was one of confusion and concern that the Wilpons were not leveling with us about the true state of the Mets financial affairs.
It started out that winter when instead of going after his plan “A” – which was to get a top flight starter – Omar instead signed left fielder Jason Bay. It then became more confusing as Omar suddenly started acquiring inexpensive players like Jacobs to resolve our problem at first, Matthews to make up for the absence of Beltran and Baharass to resolve the problem behind the plate. As the season progressed and we were fighting with Atlanta for the division we continued wondered why no moves were being made to strengthen the team – though Davis was doing wonders at first base, we still had no catching and Frenchy was a failure in right and Bay an utter disappointment in left.
It was then that many of us concluded that something was indeed fiscally wrong in the house of Wilpon. The subsequent hiring of Sandy Alderson and the moves made ever since confirmed we were right for 2010 was so anti-Omar as far as his behavior patterns were concerned.
BTW – if anybody is interested, though the trading deadline back in 1973 was in June, players could still be sold and purchased after that so if Sandy wanted to he could have sold some players for cash.
So in 2010 when the front office didn’t bring in any help for a team that was 11 games over 500 being carried by David Wright in the first half with a monster June which propelled the Mets to that 11 games over 500 got kicked in the teeth as well. Just wondering why you would only say that for 2011 and 2012 when much the same happened in 2010. No help was brought in either.
Hi Dr.K,
OK, now I understand what you’re getting at. Not the message from the fans but the players not saying the same thing in 2010. Valid question.
Of course, any answer one gives is only hypothetical so here goes mine. I am sure they were aware of the belt-tightening and not ambivalent to the team’s apparent financial trouble. However, Omar was still one of them – a professional player. Even though he only spent a short time in the Oakland farm system he was an athlete who shared with them an innate competitive instinct and drive to win – unlike the corporate guy who deals in ledger books and looks at them with all the compassion of a statistic.
So even though both general managers faced the same economic situation, there was a world of difference between the two. Omar knew what it meant to be in athletic competition while Sandy sees athletic competition only as a business.
That’s my take. In 2010, they felt the front office at least gave a damn about winning. In 2011, they knew better.
What’s your theory?
My take on 2010 is that Omar realized the teams shortcomings and decided not to give up any prospects for an unrealistic shot at a playoff spot. Pretty much the same as 2011 and 2012. I only wished Omar was a seller that year and brought back a few pieces that, who knows might be contibuting now. Although unless he was trading Reyes and Wright there really wasn’t a whole lot else of trade value that anybody wanted. Probably Pagan.
Does your take make more sense than
Omar and Manuel were under pressure to be fired and when Omar went to Wilpon to get the help was told sorry but we don’t want you to commit the next GM to any more players he may not want….
As I stated before that FO and manager were underfire with calls for thier heads long before the 2010 season started…
All they were going to be allowed to do was sink or swim with the players they had…
Did that hurt the 2010 season that could have been better?
Damn straight it did!
And while you can blame Omar for that if you want he got fired for it and Sandy has done it twice now yet still has a job.
The mesage in 2010?
NO BELTRAN!
And when they did have him he wasn’t ready to be BELTRAN….
After a year of not seeing MLB pitching he struggled to find his timing and swing just Like Ike did in 2012…
And Fans were calling for Omar and Manuel’s head before the season even started which is why Mejia was allowed to stay with the team because what difference did it make if they ruined him as they knew they were going to be fired before the season started unless they won a WS….
I wonder where the high standards of those fans went in the last two years where we have YET to win as many games as that 2010 team who got thier GM and Manager fired for not being good enough?
One player is not going to make all that much of a difference. They were playing 11 games over 500 without Beltran so I can’t use Blltran being injured as an excuse for the entire offense disappearing in the 2nd half. He’s a tremendous player but not in the same light as a Pujols. In the same year 2010 the Redsox lost a lot more players to the DL, top players and they managed to win 89 games. Take a look at their starting lineup and the amount of games missed as well as their starting pitchers and you’ll be amazed how uch worse they were bitten by the injury bug and still played 16 games over 500. Last year Joey Votto missed a ton of time and the Reds didn’t skip a beat. I think 2009 was a good excuse for injuries but I don’t buy 2010 since they were rolling along without Beltran and without Reyes being at his best. Wright was a beast for 6 weeks.
You mean that ’73 team that got “kicked in the teeth” when the FO didn’t trade half of them away for better players?
If the first place team in the NL East was only 1 game over 500 in 2011 like the 1973 team in first place was then those trades don’t happen so of course that’s an assinine analogy.
They were 10 1/2 games out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline in 1973.
wasn’t the trade deadline a month earlier in those days?
11 games out June 30th. Not much better.
Luckily for Met fans Sandy was smart enough to recognize the team wasn’t good enought nor in a position to make a run at the wildcard and traded a player with 2 months left in the uniform and came away with one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Luckily fans don’t make those decisions.
Hi Mitch,
I felt as if you were a college coach giving a team it’s first pep-rally. Now I can see why, being associated with the Hudson Valley National Adult Baseball Association. Yes, that pep rally is sure appreciated over somebody conveying the message to his players that “this isn’t our year.”
But that, I am afraid, is what differentiates the Mets from Baltimore or Oakland of last year. There would have been no feeling conveyed to the clubhouse of the front office not having any faith in them and not doing anything to try and help them thus making them feel as if they were kicked in the teeth. If only you were in the general manager’s position the past two July’s, the second halves might have been a lot more fun for both the players and the fans (with Ike Davis calling it a “job”). What you recognize with your years in baseball is that ballplayers are human beings and should not be treated like figures on a spreadsheet.
BTW – so glad when giving your cheerful analysis you stuck with what baseball is all about – talent, desire, fundamentals, rising to the top. Refreshing not to read predictions based on
the specialized analysis of baseball through objective, empirical evidence. Those like you on the field know better.
Love the optimism, Mitch. As you say, this is why the play the games on dirt and grass and not on paper. Can’t wait for the season to begin.
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA has the Mets finishing 80-82 – tied with the Phillies in the NL east. That’s the highest projection I’ve seen yet.
What are yours SRT? and please, be honest…
No problem being honest. I’ve already went on record here with my predictions – even though I don’t like making them this early. I went 77 Wins.
Your projection of 77 is interesting. On and Over or Under Las Vegas will probably have them at 70-72. But if they were smart foe the house to cover themselves they should make it 77. Smart money would bet on that because to quote someone the bull pen can’t be as bad.
I wish SA didn’t make that comment. I don’t think that BP can be as awful as last year but don’t ever say ‘never’…..
Fair enough… i can see 77 wins.. I see them around 65-75 to be honest, as you said, it’s too early to predict, but even if some of our veterans are doing good, i don’t think it’ll be good enough for sandy to keep them around if they’re not part of the future, so if guys like marcum, santana and a few bullpen guys do good, look for them to be traded.
Not a doubt in my mind that if this FO deems this team not likely to reach post season at the trade deadline, they’ll be looking to parlay a couple of veterans into more needed pieces for the holes – and future.
Let’s come back to the real world. The Mets this year will finish last, not even 4th!
Like they were supposed to the last 2 years, right? Ain’t happening.
80 wins for the Phils? Not for nothing, but I can’t see Philly winning 80. If they don’t start out on the right foot again, they’ll probably go into rebuild mode. They have just as many questions coming in to the season as the Mets.
5 teams last year improved or decreased their win total by over 15 games. The way pundits talk about the baseball season you would think that no teams dramatically improve on a year to year basis.
Just about every year the following occurs:
5-10 Veteran players flying under the radar will have comeback years
5-10 players expected to have breakout years will regress
5-10 players not expected to have breakout years will have breakout years
5-10 pitchers no one is considering will be in the discussion for cy young award sometime during the year
10 impact rookies will make their debut
10 unsung rookies will make their debut
75% of all mutli year FA contracts given this offseason will be considered bad contract by the end of the year
40-50 players will have significant injuries
10 all star caliber veterans will fall off the table
This I feel that I can confidently say will occur this year.
Absolutely. Look at some of the big moves, both up and down, in the last two years.
AZ 2011 +29
BAL 2012 +24
BOS 2012 -21
CIN 2012 +18
DET 2011 +14
Hou 2011 -20
Mil 2011 +19
MN 2011 -31
Oak 2012 +20
Phil 2012 -21
SD 2011 -19
WA 2012 +18
Dont forget that 99% of players in their last year of their contracts will play harder than they ever have before, sad, but true.(or cycle PEDs for the 1st time in their careers).
Soooo, it would stand to reason that there should be a stat which measures how many teams with a high percentage of players in their last years there are, & how well they do.
You would think that some teams let more of their players go to free agency than others thereby getting career years from those players even though those players wont be w/the team the following year.
It stands to reason that a team that has 10 players in the last year of their contracts will have more players with “career years” than a team with only 1 player in his last year.
“Dont forget that 99% of players in their last year of their contracts will play harder than they ever have before, sad, but true.”
Actually, no. The “contract year” thing seems to be a myth that people just assumed was true.
I see the Mets as a .500 team perhaps a tad better. So 81-82 wins is where I place them.
I place the Mets third behind Wash and Phil. I think the Braves are going to have a tough time with their SP and timely hitting, as mentioned in the article, will be iffy because of all the strikeout machines on that team. The Phils will surprise with one more run in them presuming Halladay is healthy. Lee will not go winless the first half of the season and their big 3 SP will win a bunch of games for them.
As for the Mets, the OF will have 2 surprises. Duda is going to have a good year and someone else will step up. I think Kirk, Cowgill, or Den Dekker will prove solid. RF is where I have a concern. C is improved with Buck who will surpass what the Mets got last year plus provide improved defense. The BP will be better for the simple fact it cant be worse. Again, out of the bunch that is in ST, some of those Vets will prove to have innings left in them. Closer is a problem at the moment with me not being comfortable with Parnell handed the job if FF is out. But then again, maybe he is ready to handle it.
Once again depth is a problem. If Tejada goes down, no major league ready SS is available from the farm so the recycled guys will be the choice. Same with 1B. The OF, while I see 2 players stepping up, if one is hurt along the way, I do not foresee a 3rd being able to surprise. Same with the BP.
So I am not of the doom and gloom nor will I state the Mets are playoff contenders. A middle of the road team at this point which is a big move compared the to last few seasons.
¨Baseball games are nine innings for a reason; if your team wins five innings, and your opponent wins four, you win the game.¨
Not true. If you score a total of 5 runs in the 5 innings you win, but the other team scores 6 in their 4 innings, you lose. That happened a lot in 2012 due to the bad bullpen.
Just want to apologize for the title before…my 20 month old daughter was messing with my iPad and figured out how to bring up Safari and my post was in edit mode. She activated the voice-to-text and it recorded what I said but I didn’t notice it changed the title…thank goodness I wasn’t cursing lol
I didn´t even know my Ipad has voice-to-text and your 20-month old already knows how to activate it! Jeez…
I didn’t either…I found out the hard way!
LOL be careful Mitch….Kids these days can pick up a computer and hack a bank before they can even walk and talk!
In fact many kids can’t talk at all…they will simply txt whatever they want to say while standing right next to the person they are trying to communicate with! LOL
Could win 80 games…Hell COULD win 90 games…
But then again they COULD lose 100…
All are just as likely as the other!
Thats the problem with “COULD”
Spring makes baseball fans go nuts. It’s like we’re all cooped up all winter, and then we just lose our minds. Projecting the Mets for 88 wins is a bit too pie in the sky for me. Even if everything breaks right and this team is better than last year’s team, I don’t see them being 14 games better. Solid pitching we have, but with everyone not named Niese a giant question mark. Some will be answered positively, some will not. Bullpen…well our best argument is that it can’t be worse and look we have guys with better recent track records. Great. But like I said, not sure it makes us that much better. Timely hitting, our INF and potentially C will have to carry us. careful though, because their heavy lifting might be canceled out by our inept OF…thus resulting in a mediocre hitting team.
My hope is that the Mets have at least a winning record come September, this is competing in today’s MLB. This would mean meaningful games and a chance at the playoffs. Most likely, this is a team that can be a .500 ball club at best. Most likely though, they continue the pattern of more and more losses. I’ve got us at 72 wins. The Nats are good, the Braves were solid and got better, the Phils have one last run in them. The Marlins well hey…we’ve got them in 2013.
a few teams are so overloaded with talent that short of a team-wide plague, they will win 90 by accident. And a few (Astros) are just so bereft of talent, that breaking 60 is cause to break out the bubbly.
but, the majority of teams are walking that fine line in the middle where just a little nudge one way or the other can make a huge difference in how the year plays out. Michael up above points out the types of nudges you can expect or hope for.
I try to look at teams and predict a midpoint target, assuming they stay pretty healthy, and guys do what I would expect them to based on history, where they are in their career, etc. IOW, a “normal” year, no surprises. Than figure that the nudge factor as +/- 5.
so for the Mets, right now, I put the target as 81 wins. Which means they should end up in the 76-86 range, so 88 is just a bit more of a WTH did that come from year, but doable.
get off to a good start, and have a couple of the feel-good scenarios happen, add a coupole of pieces along the way, get on a confidence role, and see what happens.’
Of course, it would be handy if the Braves and/or Washington go in the tank like Philly did last year!
I think I have said it’s almost impossible to predict wins and losses this early with so many question marks especially. 10 game swings are common so I said 70-80 wins and will settle with 75.
Its not even about the questions you can ask now….
It almost always comes down to how you answer the questions that come up over the course of a season.
All these optimistic predictions are predicated on players having seasons that surpass any season they have had.
People saying Ike will have a monster year, but he hit 32 HRs last year is it really reasonable to think he will hit more HRs? the only room for improvement on Ike would be to get the BA up, yes it will improve his RBI totals a bit, He might break 100 and even go as high as 110. Or he could slump because there is no RHPB behind him to protect him….
Duda having a Monster year? How about just having a year…
Harvey looked good last year and I have no reason to doubt he will be worse…Though if the league adjusts and he can’t compensate he will be worse….
We expect Niese to take another step and it’s reasonable that he will but how much better is anyones guess.
Counting d’Arnaud is wishfull thinking at this point first he has to make the team and even when he does don’t expect to get whatever it is he was giving in the MiLs and those 15 HRs people keep saying he will get….
And even if they get all that all it takes is one injury to a Davis, a Wright, a Niese or Gee, Hell even a re-breakdown of Santana or Murphy and it’s game over….
The lofty projections are based on an assumption that we have ALL our players, All season long, All improved, and playing the best baseball we have ever seen from them with ZERO SETBACKS throughout the year…
When was the last time something like that actually happened?
Best hope is Stanton goes on the trading block and we manage to find a way to get him without giving up half the players everyone is counting on to win these 80 some odd games we are hearing about.
I’m more optimisitic about getting HIM than I am of this team as constructed staying healthy, playing beyond thier previous high water marks, and winning 80+ games….
66-96 this year. What the Mets record or pace was in May, June or July is irrelevant. As Parcells liked to say,”you are what your record says you are.” The 2012 Mets were a 74 win team. You trade that team’s ace, its 3d leading home run hitter, lose its closer (such as he was) and do nothing to improve the bullpen and we expect that team to somehow improve? D’Arnaud is not expected to be called up until at least July by which time it will likely be way too late.
I am not that pessimistic about the overall direction, but the front office punted this season and there is no reason to pretend otherwise.
I would say they did a lot to improve the pen with the guys they brought in. Looks much better than at this point last year! Besides, FFF got so much grief from most people, you would think losing him was an improvement!
and having bay and Torres off the team is certainly addition by subtraction.
Well granted Bay sucked but really looks like we subtracted and replaced with just more negative numbers…
Bay may have batted for crap but at least he could field his position….
Not a good enough reason to keep him mind you but it’s not a solution or an addition considering we will be playing IFs like Valde, Lutz and Turner in the OF instead is it?
66 wins is very low. The players on the roster are going to improve. You’ll se d’Arnaud in early May and Wheeler in June. All that together with the improved bullpen and a healthy Santana… you never know.
Improved Duda, CF a bit better, loss of Hairston power, Byrd a surprise = a crappy OF that’s still better than last year’s 74-win team.
Dickey gone, but Harvey,Gee, and Santana pitch more, with Marcum doing OK and Wheeler coming up later = more wins from the rotation.
A much improved bullpen. (It couldn’t be worse!)
Infield performance a bit better, with a healthy Ike.
Prediction: 85 wins.
And, of course, the catching will be better, with Buck, followed by D’Arnaud!
I still have a sneaking suspicion that Patterson will outplay Byrd in ST for an OF spot.
I like the optimism Mitch. I generally like reading your posts. I used to wear rose colored glasses every spring. That being said, while the Mets may surprise, I would say your projection is over the top optimistic.
Wouldn’t you think a modest improvement of five or six wins would be more in line with the current roster and future development of our frontline prospects? If you increase your projection in a division with the Nats, Braves and Philly, who will all be upwards of 80 wins, then where do the Mets make up those 14? The Marlins can still be counted on for 62 wins and that would be saying they won’t lose at historic levels with a guy like Stanton in their lineup. No, the Mets, with that division, in the NL with SF, LA, CINCY, STL, PITT, (who will be better again without the collapse, plus their own division will be hard pressed to reach 75-80 wins. I peg them for 79 if it all breaks right, more realistically 73-75.
It is incredible optimism, and while I would have liked to see the Mets address the outfield with at least one established major leaguer, I have to say there isn’t much difference between this Mets team and the Orioles and Athletics who both won 90 games last year.
Will they win 90 games? I don’t know…but if the question is can the Mets win 90 games then the answer is yes.
Just read an article that referred to the Orioles bullpen being 27th in the league in 2011 and moving up to 5th last year, added to that the growth of some of their young players and some young prospects who came up during the year aided into a playoff birth.
Not to toot my own horn here but I am a pretty good baseball guy and I am pretty accurate when evaluating players, I did not do much much research on the Orioles before last year and pegged them for an easy bet of last place in the A.L east. Boy what a surprise, hey did anyone else have them battling for a playoff birth in that division?? Were the players and their writers on banned substances? Did you know Strop and Jim Johnson where gonna be excellent in the 8th and 9th?
These kinds of surprises can happen with young teams, the just finally click out of no where. The Mets where I believe 28th or 29th in bullpen last year and with the maturity of some of the young cats, the veteran presence added of Lyon Atchinson, Hawkins, and Feliciano they might have cut that in half. To me one of the big things is having all those lefties in camp especially in this division, they did not have that last year, they have depth and should be much improved. The 9 th inning is a question mark but we honestly do not know if Parnell can do it or not, they still have some guys that can pitch there if he falters.
The big thing in the outfield is can Duda produce. Well are we really dealing this guys faith after one season? Did Chase Headley breakout after one season or the 5th? When did Jose Batista start going nuts in his career? When did Pedro Alvarez finally start showing power? I can go on and on, if Duda can go 270 with 25 dingers it goes far to solidifying the club.
I am fine with Kirk and Cowgill in center. Do we think that Kirk can get better or he is what he is? If he is strictly platooned his numbers should look much better, same for Cowgill, both play hard, both play good defense, both can run with Cowgill being a possible 20 to 30 SB guy. If they produce just what there numbers are on the splits combined the production out of center field will be much better than expected.
Right field is wild card but we do not know if Den Dekker comes up mid season and is Peter Bourjos like in right. Right field is the biggest mystery on the team. The Mets have also upgraded much more than most people think at catcher. Buck is great with pitchers and offers much more pop than Thole. His BABIP was horrible last year so I can see an improvement. The thing is D’arnaud will be coming as well and both of them will be extremely better than Thole and Nickeas. Not even close. Ike Davis in my opinion gets closer to 40 homers, yes it is possible, and hits more like 270.
The point is the Mets are very similar to the Orioles of last year, and to the Oakland A’s as well. If the bullpen can cut its ranking in half, Duda gets better, Ike gets better,along with some of the other younger players the Mets can surprise this season for sure. Now if anyone disagrees that is fine, but whoever does can you tell me you had Oakland and Baltimore in the playoffs last year????? I doubt it…. Hence, that’s why we play the games and that’s what makes baseball so great and enjoyable.
the only way we win that many is if every team in our division suffer horrible plane crashes or something.that’s the only way.
How much of the Orioles success has to do with the suck of Boston and Toronto though?
Really the only team they surpassed was Tampa and they lost longoria for most of the season…
Well, if you go by this logic, then the only reason the Mets were so dominant in 2006 was b/c the rest of the NL east sucked that year. Mets had the division sewed up by mid season, then played .500 the rest of the way.
Very true. 2006 was a great year though. When you look back at how many of those guys had either career years or career resurgence years there was bound to be some back sliding the next year.
Especially when the reason they went just .500 in the second half was not addressed for the following year.
Not addressed Very good….
How could we address it? By not spending or spending more?
Thats the point some people who lament the spending seem to sidestep!
We think Omar spent us to where we are but the truth is they spent but not enough and not on the right players to get the job done.
How much more did you expect them to spend? I agree they were always a player short but I think that was more to do with the fact of falling in love with the big name and never having enough left for guys like Sucarto.
As much as it took….Which in this case is not anymore than 171Mil which would be what the payroll would have been if you added a Pitcher who got 20Mil a few years before Lee got 25 Mil!
So your talking Cy Young type pitcher….
The REAL question should be WHO WAS AVAILABLE….
Because that question directly relates to the signing of Perez, Castillo and Bay!
Which is really the only spending anyone ever cites as the problem with spending….
They never say BOO about Santana, Beltran, Delgado, Wagner, Wright and Reyes
We spent more than enough. But not on what we needed apparently.
If you look at 2006, I believe we used 12 starters to get through that season. That should have been a red flag for the off season, for starters. The BP sure had a hand in going .500 down the stretch and losing to the Cardinals. Should have been another area addressed.
Our offense was awesome in ’06 – the big reason we ran away with that division. They picked the pitching up.
Sure COULD be the case SRT….
Which would also explain 2007 and 2008 now wouldn’t it?
Those teams got stronger and overtook us when all was said and done!
They were bad in 2006 and we took advantage, grabbed a big lead that could not be overcome despite our late season decline. The next two years the gap was not as much to overcome and our late season decline was enough for them to catch and surpass us!
Which is why I always said more Pitching was the answer….The problem was we never really seemed to ADD pitching while maintaining the pitching we had….So any addition merely offset the losses from what we got previously and they remained virtually in place while the world got better around them.
If you look at all those seasons (2006-2008) it was a collapse of the Pitching and losses to the rotation that killed us. The Pen issue were also directly related to overuse because we didn’t get the innings we needed to keep them fresh.
That said if Harvey and Wheeler are enough to make a Reyesless, Beltranless and Dickeyless team a 80-90 game winner how good could it be if we just managed to find a way to keep those guys?
Something to think about when we talk about the importance of rebuilding isn’t it?
Well, only point I was trying to make is you can’t really look at predicting the team’s W/L record in a vacuum. It does depend somewhat on what the rest of the NL east teams do as well.
Well look at who is there and who you think is going to tank for us to win a lot…
Phillies were bad last year for the same reason we were bad in 2009, Injuries and losing thier big bats for most of the season….Unless Howard gets hurt again, they lose another pitcher like they did last year and Utley misses significant time not likely they will be as bad as they were cause they managed to OVERTAKE US in the short time those bats came back didn’t they?
Atlanta can hardly be considered weaker after getting the Upton Brothers….
So your pinning your hopes on the Nationals going back to what they were and beating up on them and the Marlins….
And even if you do you still have to get by the Phillies and Braves to win something.
from 2006-2009 we wewre the team to beat but that was based on a flimsy team on PAPER…
We don’t even look good on PAPER this year….Sure anything can happen…A few Million Powerball ticket sales are predicated on that assumption….
And buying 10 doesn’t mean you have a better chance than that guy in Ohio who bought one and walked away with the Jackpot!
No, I never said the Mets were going to win ‘a lot’ this season. Look above – my prediction is 77 wins.
Oh, and for the record….Phillies suck!
Nothing I’d like more than to see the Phillies slide to the bottom for the next decade or so.
Nothin more you OR I would like to see than the Phillies hold the cellar and the Mets win the WS…
NEITHER ARE HAPPENING THIS YEAR!
So much for what we like…..
You think the Phillies suck but everyone expects them to finish above us so what does that tell you about our team?
If they suck then we REALLY suck….
Oh, and agree about pitching. You can never have enough.
IMO, part of the reason for the 2007 collapse was the BP was not fully addressed coming out of 2006. Part of the reason we went .500 was b/c the pitching duo of Duaner and Heilman was lost on the last day of July.
Other reason was some aging vets fading down the stretch with some injuries. A couple of which was SPs.
That I agree with, you have to play the games. 2009 Mets picked by SI to make the World Series. I just don’t see any of the problems with the offense or bullpen really solved. But we just have to see.
that inning by inning thing is one of the first things Collins said when he got here. It seems the mets can only do it for about two fifths of a season, though, and then start to fade. Because yo;u have to have talent.
“If the analysts projections were correct every year, then what would be the point of playing the season out? They could all save us a lot of time and hand out trophies based on rosters.”
This.
Soon the realities of what this team will be will become more clear but right now it’s Spring Training. Hope springs eternal.
No, winning innings is not like winnings games. Because you could easily, win 5 innings, 2 draw innings, and 2 big loss innings, and you lose the game. I like the way of breaking it down, but it doesn’t work that well.
There are occasions where it doesn’t work out but over the course of the season it leads to wins.
Delusion and Denial. That’s the only way to explain any Mets fan believing their team will be competitive this year, or even next year. That’s what Wilpon & co are hoping for, so they can get you to buy seats. Queens and Long Island deserve a major league team. If the major attraction is “watching an exciting bunch of new prospects”, then go to Binghampton or Pawtucket. That’s the definition of a minor league team.
I got here late. Just had to say about this:
>> Baseball games are nine innings for a reason; if your team wins five innings, and your opponent wins four, you win the game. It really is a best out of nine series. <<
I'm sorry, but that's crazy. It's not remotely true.
Actually nobody knows why games are actually set to nine innings so for you to proclaim that my idea is crazy is crazy itself. There are occasions where a team may score 6 or 7 runs in a inning which will ultimately throw a monkey wrench in that theory, but the beauty of baseball is if you lose two or three innings in a row, you can still make up the lost runs and win the game. But the point was, that over the course of the season, a team should take each game inning by inning and focus on winning each inning, then at the end of the season it should show itself in the win column.
If the Mets win 70 games consider it a spectacular season. I’ve been cheering (crying) since ’62. Yes, sat in the PG and saw a 40 win season. This year a 60 win season is a real possibility. Once the injuries set in, who knows, why not 40? No, that’s not fair, lets stick with 65 wins.
Carlos
Hi Carlos,
We must have missed seeing each other at the Polo Grounds during that ’62 season.
In Order for the Mets to have a decent season, they would need one more solid bat. We all know the Mets had solid starters last season and it was the pen that blew what 20 to 25 games. I thinks Collins is trying to address that. If we can get a contact hitter and place him 6 or 7 in the line up we could have a decent season. LET’S GO METS
This is an example of how statistics can be looked at two ways:
After 32 games they were 14-18.
After 42 games they were 20-22.
After 52 games they were 24-28.
After 62 games 30-32.
After 82 games 1 over the halfway mark they were 41-41.
After 92 games they were 46-46.
After 102 games they were 51-51,
2 days later Beltran was traded at 53-51,
2 days later theu were 55-51 high water mark.
And also say:
Through game 18 they were 5-13
Games 19-32 they were 9-5
Games 33-42 they were 6-4
Games 43-52 they were 4-6
Games 53-62 they were 6-4
Games 63-82 they were 11-9
Games 83-92 they were 5-5
Games 93-102 the were 5-5
Games 103-106 they were 4-0
After their low mark of 5-13 they went on to play 50-38 (.568) mostly with Beltran and KRod to reach their high water mark of 55-51 with them then no longer on the team. With those players still on the team and the return of Wright (baring the injuries to Murphy and Neise which were unforeseen) continuing at that pace they could have been 32-24 the rest of the way and finished up at 87-75.
St. Louis finished at 90-72. Statistically, the Mets could have wound up three games behind them for the wild card. Statistics are no barometer of what a team is made of – there is so much more that makes a team what it is.
Of course, the tragedy is that we will never know. Maybe the Mets would have finished at 87-75 or would have nevertheless still wound up at 77-85. With momentum, they might have made up those three games or would have faded away in September. We just don’t know
Statistics are superficial, can be seen to justify several different opinions and thus should never be looked at with such certainty.
Even more tragic than the fact that we will never know is the fact that they weren’t even given the chance. Instead of “ya gotta believe” the front office told them they didn’t believe in them.
Or, as I suspect, it had nothing to do with believing in them or not. The fire sale had to continue and putting down the team was the best way to justify it.
Next on our program, Pat Robertson explains evolution.
Hi Donal,
Or Hal Lindsey “using” scripture to show the world was coming to an end – for maybe the hundredth time?
No, you discussing statistics and computers is pretty much like Pat Robertson explaining evolution. You could take a bunch of high school students and play a nice rousing game of “spot the fallacy”.
Hi Donal,
Wasn’t using stats to prove anything one way or the other – just gave an example to show how they can be looked at differently and are thus so superficial. Even said they could have wound up with 87 wins or no differently than the 77 that they did.
We will never know what could have been even though some speak about it with such certainty. That is due to the lack of competitive integrity and giving one a chance to win or lose on their own instead of taking the opportunity away from them. I doubt that had the decision been made to keep both players and say we’re going for it – without making subsequent moves that would be questionable (i.e, Kazmir) would have upset anybody and would have done a lot to keep that competitive spirit alive in both players and fans alike.
Certainly, it would not have achieved such a polarizing effect with so much of the fan base as it has today as seen in the drop in box office revenue – where it hurts the most.
“Wasn’t using stats to prove anything one way or the other – just gave an example to show how they can be looked at differently and are thus so superficial. ”
And you did it using a wide array of fallacies.
” That is due to the lack of competitive integrity and giving one a chance to win or lose on their own instead of taking the opportunity away from them.”
If they lost their hearts, they deserved to lose. Man up and do your job. Maybe the thing Alderson needed to bring in the most was a team mom to soothe their hurt feelings.
” I doubt that had the decision been made to keep both players and say we’re going for it – without making subsequent moves that would be questionable (i.e, Kazmir) would have upset anybody and would have done a lot to keep that competitive spirit alive in both players and fans alike. ”
And hurts the team long term. You bought false hope with our future.
“Certainly, it would not have achieved such a polarizing effect with so much of the fan base as it has today as seen in the drop in box office revenue – where it hurts the most.”
Nonsense. Attendance dropped with Beltran putting up MVP numbers and no one really cares about a closer.
The fairy tale of maybe possibly coming close to a playoff series we’d get waxed in is meaningless. Rodriguez was an anchor and Beltran could better serve the team bringing i na player who can help the Mets be legit contenders for several years, not just a pipe dream for 1.
Again, stop discussing statistics. You are incapable of doing so without intentionally misrepresenting the points of people who use them.
Hi Donal,
“And you did it using a wide array of fallacies.”
- Is saying they could “have nevertheless still wound up at 77-85.” a fallacy?
If they lost their hearts, they deserved to lose?
- Was that the opinion of their manager?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/sports/baseball/eighth-inning-rally-sends-marlins-past-mets.html?_r=0
“And hurts the team long term. You bought false hope with our future?”
- Showing faith in the team hurts in the long-term? Did not I not also say ” without making subsequent moves that would be questionable (i.e, Kazmir)?”
- If you are referring to not getting Wheeler, does that mean our future relies on just one prospect? If that is the case, then there is indeed false hope for that implies a limited depth of players in our farm system and young core that is already developing – including other pitching arms that could take the spot for Wheeler.
“Attendance dropped with Beltran putting up MVP numbers and no one really cares about a closer.”
- Metsie already showed the immediate drop in attendance just in August alone.
“Again, stop discussing statistics. You are incapable of doing so…..”
- Only pointed out the Mets went 50-38 (.568) after that horrible start which is not the sign of a .500 team.
….. “without intentionally misrepresenting the points of people who use them.”
- I think you are doing a very good job of that all on your own.
“- Is saying they could “have nevertheless still wound up at 77-85.” a fallacy?”
You want to see the list?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
The fallacy isn’t so much the statement you gave, but the conclusions you drew from it.
“If they lost their hearts, they deserved to lose?”
Yes, they are grown men and professionals. Show some pride.
“- Showing faith in the team hurts in the long-term? Did not I not also say ” without making subsequent moves that would be questionable (i.e, Kazmir)?””
How many moves? How much faith are you showing in them when you are trading a bunch of them away? They needed a catcher, another outfielder, a second baseman, 2 relievers (the only good one was mediocre at best) and another starter. With no depth in the minors to spare, who do you trade with?
“- If you are referring to not getting Wheeler, does that mean our future relies on just one prospect?”
False dichotomy, another fallacy. Wheeler doesn’t ahve to be the be all end all of the farm system, but a deal like that builds a sustainable winner better than clinging to the hope of an early playoff exit.
“- Metsie already showed the immediate drop in attendance just in August alone.”
Nifty that attendance dropped because they were losing again. The attendance drops because of the losing, not because of who is or isn’t on the team while they lose. He’s proved that as well, despite his best efforts.
” Only pointed out the Mets went 50-38 (.568) after that horrible start which is not the sign of a .500 team.”
the fact that you don’t get the problem with that is why you should stay out of these discussions.
“- I think you are doing a very good job of that all on your own.”
Well, I do have to quote you to show you your errors.
Donal,
It really doesn’t bother me if one has a different opinion than my own. I think we’ve both made out points.
…. both made *our* points.
What I don’t understand is not why one can be so enthusiastic about this team now but why one did not share that enthusiasm back in 2011 before those trades were made? They were playing great ball with the confidence of not giving up by often coming back from early deficits, not beating themselves, executing the fundamentals, getting the timely hit, etc. Davis was called up and having a fine rookie year, Murphy was hitting in the clutch (.364 with runners in scoring position) and hitting against all type of pitching, Reyes was leading the league in batting, Beltran was having a come back season, Lucas Duda was having a fine rookie season filling in for Davis at first and Thole was holding his own with the bat. We had a decent bench with Turner, Hairston, Paulino and Tejada. Run scoring was not our problem and we still wound up finishing 6th in the league at the end of the year despite the departed Beltran still winding up as our home run and RBI leader.
In the bullpen KRod already had 23 saves and Parnell and Beato were having fine first halves. Dickey was having a fine season and Gee and Neise were showing signs of improvement.
On the other hand, there were also things to hope for in the second half – David Wright had yet to get his season together before being injured and Angel Pagan was still struggling.
Yes, we had problems. We needed better starting pitching and needed to step it up on our poor defense.
So there was room for enthusiasm had the team been left in place. And if there wasn’t then, why should we have it let us say going toward 2014 for though we have indeed resolved the starting rotation problem we have in turn created problems with both the outfield and the bullpen and have done nothing to address it – and doing nothing is the reason why so many of us are less enthusiastic than we would like.
“What I don’t understand is not why one can be so enthusiastic about this team now but why one did not share that enthusiasm back in 2011 before those trades were made? ”
Because when you took a deeper look into what they were actually doing, it was more likely that the winning was not sustainable. they were getting a ton of lucky breaks and it wouldn’t take much for that to even out.
I wasn’t trumpeting it in 2011 because I wanted people to enjoy the ride, but when asked directly, I said it wasn’t sustainable.
“They were playing great ball with the confidence of not giving up by often coming back from early deficits, ”
that is actually one of the signs. Falling behind too often and relying on late inning comebacks. It generally indicates you are getting lucky breaks.
” not beating themselves, executing the fundamentals, ”
Their fundamentals were quite poor. Go back to those game summaries and see how many mentions of lousy fielding and base running errors are made.
“Davis was called up and having a fine rookie year, Murphy was hitting in the clutch (.364 with runners in scoring position) and hitting against all type of pitching, Reyes was leading the league in batting, Beltran was having a come back season, Lucas Duda was having a fine rookie season filling in for Davis at first and Thole was holding his own with the bat. We had a decent bench with Turner, Hairston, Paulino and Tejada”
Davis missed almost the entire season, Murphy was playing first and third, Tejada was at 2B and Duda was in left because Bay was injured and Murphy covered first once Wright came back.
and Reyes’ second half was pretty damn soft hitting and numerous DL stints.
“In the bullpen KRod already had 23 saves ”
The result did not match the process. Rodriguez was living on the edge and it came back to bite him eventually.
You don’t measure a pitcher’s effectiveness in wins or saves.
” And if there wasn’t then, why should we have it let us say going toward 2014 for though we have indeed resolved the starting rotation problem we have in turn created problems with both the outfield and the bullpen and have done nothing to address it ”
They’ve tried fixing the bullpen, but it is generally a crap shoot. And the outfield issue is complicated.
The fact is, we are now in better position if they do get off to a hot start. We have pieces to trade and room to take on salary.
Hi Donal,
OK, that is fair – you felt that way then but acknowledged there were others who were feeling like me at the time and you weren’t going to not let them enjoy the ride.
As said, I would have wanted it left to the players to prove either of us right simply because that is what sports is all about – competitive intigrety. But recognizing that one has to also not sacrifice a future for an outside chance is why I added no additions if it meant giving up a Kazmir.
BTW – have a cold so meant to write Duda was called up and having a fine rookie season, not Davis whom he was replacing at first.
It’s hard to imagine how one who follows the team on a daily basis can say they were not beating themselves and playing sound fundamental baseball in 2011 when they were constantly running themselves out of innings with utter incompetence on the basepaths and costing themselves games with mental mistakes on defense and a large number of physical errors defensively in crucial moments late in games. And comebacks mean nothing when they fall a run short. Turning a 6-1 loss into a 6-5 loss leaving the tying run on base is nothing more than a moral victory which mean nothing in professional sports. This is why I laugh at those who think statistics are meaningless. Ones eyes cannot be trusted to make a fair and competent analysis of their own team they they watch daily. Ones eyes only see and remember events that they want to see and remember.
Joey, players (and 1 season) don’t exist in a vacuum. And GM has to take a longer term horizon view than a typical fan (game to game, 1 season at most).
so, and plyers you give up “going for it” you don’t have in the future. Same with money spent, especially when that is tight.
so yes, while miracles do on occasion occur, the GM has to play the odds and decide what to do at the time. So if you realistically look at the standings and your team, and need what would amount to a 2007 finish (not the mets, the other team!) or what the Rockies did once, to make the PS (but without the talent staring you in the face) it is practically a fiduciary duty to look at the future health of the team.
Hi Van,
But remember, I specifically stated we should not give up our future for one year (i.e., Kazmir). All it would have meant is not obtaining Wheeler and as mentioned to Donal, is it that our system and the core we have on the team right now is so limited that we don’t have another potential arm to take the spot of the potential arm of Wheeler?
We had a nice 2011 going for us and if brought into focus with all that had transpired before that and since, the moves made at that time are representative continued cost cutting efforts and decreased spending than of improving the team. If one wants to improve the team why would the general manager himself at least be honest with us on that he signed “inexpensive” players knowing we could not win with them (the Francesa interview last September)?
except in this case, you absolutely are giving up a high end prospect. Effectively you would have “traded” Wheeler for a 2 month rental of Beltran. Is that really much different than trading Kazmir away?
Hi Van,
In the rhetorical sense yes, but not in reality. We were not giving up any of our prospects and Beltran was a member of the team and not a rental. In addition, Beltran often expressed a desire to stay with the club up to the time he was traded (though many don’t believe the sincerity of his words which is only of opinion).
And, as I pointed out, we would have very little to look forward to in the years ahead if most all we had to look forward to was Wheeler. It appears we have a formidable amount of young throwing arms that could take his place along with the core that has already developed on the major league level. If one had never heard of Zach, would one be any less optimistic for the future based on that potential?
And yet, we might have also had a good run in 2011, not necessarily resulting in any wildcard but indeed resulting in a building block for team maturity, confidence and the feeling of “ya gotta believe” along with knowing the front office will try and do it’s best to help you – instead of what we saw happening the past two seasons.
On another post, Kurt wrote: “No matter how good or bad your team looks on paper, you still have to play the games. I’ve definitely learned that over the years”.
That is something I believe is being lost in all this conversation by so many.
Traded Wheeler for two months of beltran?
Or a Playoffs and possible World Series….
I think that is the point he is making….
You say it’s a trade for two months of Beltran but it is ony JUST THAT if they don’t win something….
And if they never win something with Wheeler you could just as easily say they traded away a Playoff season and Annual All Star for a guy who wins you nothing….
Yes. Beltran got hurt and the giants did not make the playoffs. And became a free agent and left them.
Mets now have many years of one of the top pitching propsects in baseball.
Good deal mets.
van, in the giants’ defense, it wasn’t as bad or ill advised as the Kazmir deal. they had a lot of good young pitching, were right in the middle of a playoff run but were desperate for offense. You can fault Sabean for the team being in that predicament to begin with, but that was the right move at the time.
Never mind, I misinterpreted your comment in the midst of the rest of the word soup.
Your stats still don’t change the fact that they were still a 500 team. 104 games into the season which is exactly 2/3rds into the season they were only 2 games over 500. So no matter how you try and cherry pick it they were still mired in mediocrity. 2010 pretty much the same story only the pitching was much better, Ike played most of the year and Wright was healthy and they still collapsed in the 2nd half so there was no reason to believe they would continue to play over their head and luckily we have a smart baseball person runnning the show and he came away with a top pitching prospect for a guy with only 2 months left.
Remember it’s only a small faction of Met fans that had a problem with this trade. The large majority ( Smarter fan) was totally on board with that trade. The writing had been on the wall the previous 3 years.
Nobody could have proved what would or would not have happened except for the players and that opportunity was taken away from them. We can discuss it all day and it that is still the bottom line – the towel was thrown in not by the players but by the front office.
Wise move in the long term or not to obtain a highly rated pitching prospect? Debatable only in theory and answer not yet known. Professional move as far as competitive integrity is concerned? Not open for question.
And here are some interesting tidbits on the subject of just being a .500 team. Doesn’t prove anything one way or the other except that the point is being applied to one team instead of two that were very similar in records.
After 18 games
St. Louis 9-9
Mets 5-13 4 GB
Games 19 through 106
Mets: 50-38 .575
St. Louis: 47-41 .553 3 GB
After 106 games
St. Louis: 56-50 .528
Mets: 55-51 .518 1GB
A .528 pace projected through a 162 game schedule St. Louis have been a record of 85-77. At a .518 pace, the Mets would have been 84-78.
Again, doesn’t prove anything except that St. Louis, with five regulars 31 or older and playing the same pace as the Mets, didn’t feel the need to get rid of any of them for younger players, even with Puljos threatening to walk at the end of the year. They didn’t see themselves as an old team falling from a 91-71 record to that of an 85 game winner with a downward future. The 2011 team had an average age of 29.3. On the other hand, the Mets were a younger team at 27.8.
What they did do prior to 2011 was to sign a 35 year old free agent Lance Berkman to a two-year deal. What they did in 2012 was to also sign a 35 year old free agent Carlos Beltran to a two-year deal as well.
Again, two teams, similar records, two different approaches. Forget the stats, just look at the methodology and attitude.
Now you’re comparing the Cardinals and the Mets in terms of offseason moves. This is why I constantly question your baseball acumen. How on earth does anyone compare the Cardinals roster and farm system to that of the Mets in the offseason prior to 2011 and even last year. The Cardinals make moves like that (Berkman and Beltran) because they are a perennial contender and have to a chance to compete for a title year in and year out where the Mets are not give or take one or two seasons every ten or so years. Their farms system continues to produce quality players which allows them to trade for other quality players. The Mets are not in the same league as the Cardinals (yet) but you’re comparing the two based on similar records in late July 2011. And you have the nerve to question Sandy Aldersons professional baseball knowledge. That’s hilarious.
What was the word I used? Wasn’t it “methodology”?
With an older team, St. Louis still went ahead and signed older and quite productive aging players to lucrative two year contracts in order to stay competitive. On the other hand we had no desire in attempting to keep both Beltran and Pagan – two all-star outfielders – and now boast of what many are calling the worst outfield in baseball. At the same time, we didn’t try to sign other veteran free agent outfielders with some productive years left to two or three year contracts either. We also traded away a Cy Young Award winner over the concern of his “hard” knuckleball and an all-star shortstop due to concern about him being injury prone.
But we instead sign even older and less productive veterans because they do not cost us that much money. All this for a team many insisted were or are just two or three players away from getting back into contention.
That was the point – methodology.
And Fonzie, I don’t equate your personal vendetta with anything meaningful enough to get upset about but I am rather curious – is a personal vendetta against one disagreeing with you over a subject so inconsequential as baseball that necessary to feel like a man?
Regarding 2011, it is obvious many of us have our extreme differences of opinion of what could have occured the rest of the year if we retained Beltran and KRod. As I have listed mine, Donal last night gave his own reasons why he felt the opposite which included:
– “it was more likely that the winning was not sustainable. they were getting a ton of lucky breaks and it wouldn’t take much for that to even out.”
- “Falling behind too often and relying on late inning comebacks. It generally indicates you are getting lucky breaks.”
- ” Rodriguez was living on the edge and it came back to bite him eventually.”
That is a completely fair and valid arguemen. In fact, many of us (me included) were waiting for Baltimore to slip back to mediocrity in the second half (like they always did with previous good early season starts) for some of the same reasons. The difference is that many of us felt it was up to the players to prove whether or not they could sustain that success through 162 games and because of competitive integrity such opportunities should never be taken away from them by the front office. That was not the case with the Orioles nor had it been for other teams in such positions in mid-July, either.
But that is not the point I am getting at. Rather, it is something that Donal himself raised:
“I wasn’t trumpeting it in 2011 because I wanted people to enjoy the ride, but when asked directly, I said it wasn’t sustainable.”
Notice, Donal was not downplaying how well the Mets played the first two-thirds of the season. In fact, he actually used the reasons I cited for their good play to counterpoint why he felt it was not reasonable to believe they could continue to sustain such play over the remaining third of the year and that is where we then both go off in different directions
Which Fonzie, is quite different than your analysis of the club up to that point:
“104 games into the season which is exactly 2/3rds into the season they were only 2 games over 500. So no matter how you try and cherry pick it they were still mired in mediocrity.”
Donal gave them credit where credit was due.
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