I would hold back a bit about crediting sabermetrics giving more insight as to which relief pitchers to acquire or how to build up a bullpen. Baseball people do not get any ground breaking revelation through statistical analysis that they don’t already know already by being professionals themselves.

And we have three of the top saber supporters in the Mets front office and look at what their reliance on sabermetrics has produced the past two seasons just as far as the bullpen is concerned.

Sabermetrics is more useful for fans to better understand in mathematical terms what those in the game have to know instinctively in order to be successful beyond just their talent.

Unfortunately, it’s actually not the correct way to look at how to build a bullpen these days. Instead, we know we now have the sabermetric insight to better define which RPs to target, whether it be on a shoestring or banquet budget
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Ramon Ramirez was never a wise target. For the three-year period ’09-’11, Ramirez was lucky, with Hit rates that were below the league average. His command was also suspect, only striking out 1.5x more hitters than BBs given up. (A pitcher starts to become attractive when ratio of Ks/BBs is 2 or better). As a result, his expected ERA was a full run higher than his actual ERA

But because his ERAs looked good, he was counted on for success. Unfortunately, midnight struck

The As always put together a successful bullpen because they’re better at defining the attributes that make up a good pitcher.

and none of us know how much the internal (clubhouse) stuff came into play, in terms of them just wanting pagan gone. Some guys do need that change of scenery.

no, the trade did not work out as a plus to the Mets, but in the big scheme, it was pretty small stuff (and frankly, IMO mostly gets harped on as part of the “GM wars that some people seem to be obsessed with keeping going).

So you trade Pagan, knowing his replacement was coming off a .221 season and had one decent season his entire career? Pagan’s “off year” was .262, 40 points higher. You also knew that this was Pagan’s walk year so you knew he’d be motivated to play well despite the “morale” problems of 2011. So the worst that would happen is you let him walk and get a draft pick.

From a pure baseball perspective this was an inexplicable decision and I said so at the time. I know we’ve been over this, and at the end of the day it did no lasting damage, but boy what a bad trade.

At some point last year, I did a chart of the stats for the “scrap heap” experienced relievers (Francisco, Rodney, Capps maybe, and a few others), and was shocked to find out that overall, FF had easily the best #s over the previous couple of years, and certainly in 2011. Rodney i think was last, as in he made the 2012 FF look stellar.

I am sure some people thought of him as a live arm, good guy to give a MiL invite flyer on, but I doubt there were too many people last off seaosn pointing to Rodney as a top choice for the Roliads award!

the marianos of the world are in short supply. So is it better for a team on a modest budget to spend 10-15% of it’s payroll budget on a closer? or better to spend that money on more than one guy, or someone that plays more often, and going with an “unknown” to close?

some teams always seem to have to have the big name guy (and Mets seem to be one of them). Others (Braves for sure) seem to constantly churn out young, cheap options for the job.

not to say either way is right or wrong, but the name brand way certainly is more expensive! And harder to recover from if the guy bombs out (a rookie gets demoted, a guy on a big $ LT deal keeps the job).

To me, if you are going big name, getting them off a rough patch (like Wilson now) seems to be a better option, rather than paying when they are coming off their peak years.

Is he?

How do we know Familia doesn’t have the testicular fortitude to close? Edgin? Even if one of those guys aren’t, that’s the point I’m making.

“At this point”

It sounds now that the Mets are trying their damndest to get a Wilson, Valverde, Lyon, K-Rod, or anyone to show up in Spring Training and outperform Francisco. They came right out and said that they’re not all that confident in him. Red flag. Again, with some of these young guys with power arms along with vets that are being stockpiled to fill seven spots, guess who’s looking more and more to be the lame duck? Here’s a hint: the guy with the ERA over 5 last season, injury and all.

Unfortunately, at this point, he is best guy for the job…

Pitch counts have been around for decades. Tom Seaver had a pitch count.

Also, the problem is that pitchers are over conditioning.ie they are working way harder than in the past. Listen to guys who played in the Good Old Days That Didn’t Actually Happen. They didn’t have nearly the schedule players do now.

While there were winter instructional leagues and some off season work outs, they weren’t half of what guys are doing year round now.

Spring Training used to be when guys showed up and dropped 20lbs+ of “winter weight” since a lot still had regular jobs and exercise wasn’t a multi-billion dollar industry. What happens now when a guy shows up 20lbs over weight? Derek Jeter shows a slight beer gut while rehabbing from surgery and on vacation and the local media went nuts.

Players don’t recuperate from the season anymore. They need to relax more the way Nolan Ryan and Babe Ruth did.

Some guys can’t fathom a good bullpen without some big name guys.

Im not overly concerned, but I’d feel a lot better if one of those guys could prove to be an eventual set-up man or preferably a closer by this time the end of the season.

All of those guys will be in AAA to start so hopefully they can refine their craft before they are called upon later in the season…

We’ve got to take into account who the general manager is out there – BIlly Beane. As Bill James once commented, Billy hasn’t introduced anything that can be considered revolutionary in the front office – his success still comes from his great eye for talent and great judgement on whom he has working under him.

It’s a matter of do we have the same type competence in our front office. The last two seasons, the bullpen put together by Sandy and his crew has been awful so that is part of the answer right there.

Another thought however, about relievers being such a crap shoot. Why then place such emphasis on them in every ball game. It’s that pitch count stuff. Condition starters better so they don’t run out of gas so soon like decades before. If someone is pitching a gem and he feels strong, keep him in the game. That way, nobody has to place so much emphasis on a specific area of the game which is labeled a crap shoot – unless that crap shoot reputation is over-exaggerated and just a monkey that relievers cannot get off their backs.

The point about Rameriez is a perfect example. He had pitched well three of his last four seaons. Prior to that, he had been pitching in Denver, not exactly a haven for those on the mound. So overall he has had a good career. Yet, he has a bad year for the Mets. How come with hitters they can have an off-year but with relievers it’s a sign of being a crap shoot?

Does not instill much confidence I’m afraid…