1
2013
This Is How The Mets Bullpen Should Be Made
An article by 
It was announced yesterday that the Mets signed 40-year old LaTroy Hawkins to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training. He joins a plethora of veteran relievers to receive the same deal including Tim Byrdak, Aaron Laffey, Pedro Feliciano and most recently Scott Atchison. In recent years, the Amazin’s have tried to fill the gaping hole in the bullpen by signing big-name arms that haven’t gone as expected or making trades that have backfired.
Unlike building other factors of a team, the bullpen is not necessarily something that can be solved by going on a spending spree, because short of Mariano Rivera or Jonathon Papelbon, there aren’t many bonafide elite arms in relief. This is mostly because relievers are such a crapshoot and fluctuate so greatly from year to year in performance.
Just look at Ramon Ramirez for the Mets last season. Prior to 2012, Ramirez had at least 65 innings pitched and an ERA south of three each of the four previous seasons. His less effective years in 2006 and 2007 came at Coors Field with the Rockies, so take his career 4.45 ERA in Denver with a grain of salt. What seemed to be a solid effective reliever from 2008-2011, was anything but with the Mets in 2012. He seemed like such a steady arm for the Mets, so consistent that the front office was willing to part with Angel Pagan in return for a reliable go-to arm out of the ‘pen, and it blew up in Sandy Alderson’s face.
In addition to Ramirez, K-Rod, J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Hisanori Takahashi, Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, D.J Carrasco, and Ryota Igarashi represent some of the Mets major relief acquisitions in recent years. Short of a solid season out of Takahashi and an up-and-down year from Rauch, the Amazin’s haven’t fared all too well with the large-scale relief deals.
This is not to say that signing big-name relievers are a mistake, but in my opinion carry a higher risk; not in the sense that they are at a higher risk for failure, but require a higher commitment to acquire them. That could be in the form of a 3-year $37 million deal or by trading someone like Angel Pagan or Mike Carp. The aforementioned arms that Alderson has signed have just as much of a chance for success or failure as the more well-known relievers, only they come with little to lose if things don’t pan out.
The 2012 Oakland A’s came into the year without Andrew Bailey, Brad Ziegler or Craig Breslow. With the exception of Grant Balfour, the bullpen was entirely comprised of no-names and cast offs, primarily acquired via a minor league deal, as prospects via trade, or from the farm system. This collection of misfit toys took a bullpen that last year had a 15-25 record, and ranking 18th in baseball in ERA, to a squad that produced 30 wins compared to just 14 losses and ranking second in the AL only to the Rays with a 2.94 collective ERA.
The fact of the matter is, relievers are like a box of chocolates; and not the kind you send to Jose Reyes. You never know what you’re going to get. Who is to say Jeremy Affeldt or Sean Burnett will have better seasons than LaTroy Hawkins or Pedro Feliciano?
Last winter, Alderson tried to go the conventional route, and it produced the worst bullpen in baseball. Now trying a different, more selective and educated approach, this bullpen could be something that doesn’t draw adjectives such as “atrocious” and “appalling”. Or at the very least, in the words of Sandy:
“I’m not sure how we can end up with a not-improved bullpen.”
About the Author: Clayton Collier
Clayton, a Long Island native and die-hard Mets fan, started writing online about three years ago. He is currently a Journalism major with a minor in Broadcasting at Seton Hall University. Although very disappointed with the current state of the team, Clayton remains hopeful that the young prospects in the farm system will bring the Mets back to a respected franchise in baseball once again. Besides writing for MMO, Clayton is also a staff member at 89.5 WSOU, Seton Hall's modern active rock radio station. You can contact Clayton by following him on Twitter: @Clayton_Collier or E-mailing him at MaybeNextYearMets@yahoo.com
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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I think Alderson has gotten too much credit for the Wright signing, and what he got back in the Beltran and Dickey trades. However, he’s not getting enough credit for solid work on the bullpen for 2013. Bullpens are so fickle one never knows. But it’s to give yourself as many options as cheaply as possible. I would still like to see 1-2 more of the ilk recently signed, and at least 1-2 with higher potential though higher risk.
He still needs a real closer, so the report card on the pen is incomplete.
“The fact of the matter is, relievers are a box of chocolates; and not the kind you send to Jose Reyes. ”
Reminds me of the time I found out who actually was Forrest Gump.
http://realdirtymets.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Forrest-Wonka-Gump.png
Sure all those signings are fine and dandy, but Frank Francisco is our closer and Bobby Parnell is 2nd in command.
Does not instill much confidence I’m afraid…
You dont get the feeling that they’re trying to faze out Francisco? With all the back and forth that’s been going on with the likes of Bourn, Wilson, Upton, and even Francisco himself (it wasnt that long ago they were adamant about Francisco being their guy), it seems that they’re gonna eventually cut him in ST should he fail to perform to their standard. They got the young bucks who have closer potential who are either here now or are coming soon plus the vets they’re signing left and right, which includes the search for a closer.
The only way he gets cut is if he throws a chair at a fan or something.
Unfortunately, at this point, he is best guy for the job…
“Unfortunately, at this point, he is best guy for the job”
Is he?
How do we know Familia doesn’t have the testicular fortitude to close? Edgin? Even if one of those guys aren’t, that’s the point I’m making.
“At this point”
It sounds now that the Mets are trying their damndest to get a Wilson, Valverde, Lyon, K-Rod, or anyone to show up in Spring Training and outperform Francisco. They came right out and said that they’re not all that confident in him. Red flag. Again, with some of these young guys with power arms along with vets that are being stockpiled to fill seven spots, guess who’s looking more and more to be the lame duck? Here’s a hint: the guy with the ERA over 5 last season, injury and all.
I don’t think they are phasing him out intentionally, but he is certainly on a short leash.
Not inspiring much Clayton. What you say maybe true sometimes but I wouldn’t call it a rule. Our bullpen still sucks. And it will be more important this year with all the injury concerns in the rotation and no Dickey
OK, let’s go on the premise that these minor league signings might turn our bullpen around as was the case with Oakland.
We’ve got to take into account who the general manager is out there – BIlly Beane. As Bill James once commented, Billy hasn’t introduced anything that can be considered revolutionary in the front office – his success still comes from his great eye for talent and great judgement on whom he has working under him.
It’s a matter of do we have the same type competence in our front office. The last two seasons, the bullpen put together by Sandy and his crew has been awful so that is part of the answer right there.
Another thought however, about relievers being such a crap shoot. Why then place such emphasis on them in every ball game. It’s that pitch count stuff. Condition starters better so they don’t run out of gas so soon like decades before. If someone is pitching a gem and he feels strong, keep him in the game. That way, nobody has to place so much emphasis on a specific area of the game which is labeled a crap shoot – unless that crap shoot reputation is over-exaggerated and just a monkey that relievers cannot get off their backs.
The point about Rameriez is a perfect example. He had pitched well three of his last four seaons. Prior to that, he had been pitching in Denver, not exactly a haven for those on the mound. So overall he has had a good career. Yet, he has a bad year for the Mets. How come with hitters they can have an off-year but with relievers it’s a sign of being a crap shoot?
“Why then place such emphasis on them in every ball game. It’s that pitch count stuff. Condition starters better so they don’t run out of gas so soon like decades before.”
Pitch counts have been around for decades. Tom Seaver had a pitch count.
Also, the problem is that pitchers are over conditioning.ie they are working way harder than in the past. Listen to guys who played in the Good Old Days That Didn’t Actually Happen. They didn’t have nearly the schedule players do now.
While there were winter instructional leagues and some off season work outs, they weren’t half of what guys are doing year round now.
Spring Training used to be when guys showed up and dropped 20lbs+ of “winter weight” since a lot still had regular jobs and exercise wasn’t a multi-billion dollar industry. What happens now when a guy shows up 20lbs over weight? Derek Jeter shows a slight beer gut while rehabbing from surgery and on vacation and the local media went nuts.
Players don’t recuperate from the season anymore. They need to relax more the way Nolan Ryan and Babe Ruth did.
and what’s more problematic is the prospects on the immediate horizon (Carson, Ramirez, Mejia and Familia) haven’t impressed much in their limited MLB experience.
Im not overly concerned, but I’d feel a lot better if one of those guys could prove to be an eventual set-up man or preferably a closer by this time the end of the season.
All of those guys will be in AAA to start so hopefully they can refine their craft before they are called upon later in the season…
He done good job, but people will still cry cry cry. Theres a lot of folks that seemed to be programed at this point to just cry cry cry.
Some guys can’t fathom a good bullpen without some big name guys.
You focus too much on distractions and are becoming a distraction yourself. Stick to the topics and talk about baseball, not about fellow Met fans. Once again a comment that brings nothing to the table and only intended to bring conversations into the gutter. Already deleted a similar comment like this today. Somewhere inside you there has to be more than this. Let’s see it.
It does point to a valid difference of opinion. That is, needing to have a “big name” (name brand?) closer, instead of rolling with a collection of good arms, and letting the pecking order sort itself out based on performance.
the marianos of the world are in short supply. So is it better for a team on a modest budget to spend 10-15% of it’s payroll budget on a closer? or better to spend that money on more than one guy, or someone that plays more often, and going with an “unknown” to close?
some teams always seem to have to have the big name guy (and Mets seem to be one of them). Others (Braves for sure) seem to constantly churn out young, cheap options for the job.
not to say either way is right or wrong, but the name brand way certainly is more expensive! And harder to recover from if the guy bombs out (a rookie gets demoted, a guy on a big $ LT deal keeps the job).
To me, if you are going big name, getting them off a rough patch (like Wilson now) seems to be a better option, rather than paying when they are coming off their peak years.
This just in, Fernando Rodney had 40 something saves last year and was pretty much dominant, Tampa had the, best pen in AL, in the AL East no less. Everyone knew that was gonna happen!!!!Enough said.
They did? do you realize how bad Rodney was in 2011? There is a reason he was a scrap heap signing for very little money, and every team but Tampa passed on him.
At some point last year, I did a chart of the stats for the “scrap heap” experienced relievers (Francisco, Rodney, Capps maybe, and a few others), and was shocked to find out that overall, FF had easily the best #s over the previous couple of years, and certainly in 2011. Rodney i think was last, as in he made the 2012 FF look stellar.
I am sure some people thought of him as a live arm, good guy to give a MiL invite flyer on, but I doubt there were too many people last off seaosn pointing to Rodney as a top choice for the Roliads award!
The thing about Ramon Ramirez was that he was traded by Colorado in 3/08, KC in 11/08, Boston in 7/10 (when the Red Sox basically gave him away at the deadline) and SFG in 12/11. He was traded four times in less than four years. That should have been a warning sign that maybe he was not all he was cracked up to be. The Mets were in the process of signing Rauch and Francisco, and had Parnell, so Ramirez was going to be, at best, a middle innings reliever. You knew Bay and Duda were going to be question marks offensively going into 2012.
So you trade Pagan, knowing his replacement was coming off a .221 season and had one decent season his entire career? Pagan’s “off year” was .262, 40 points higher. You also knew that this was Pagan’s walk year so you knew he’d be motivated to play well despite the “morale” problems of 2011. So the worst that would happen is you let him walk and get a draft pick.
From a pure baseball perspective this was an inexplicable decision and I said so at the time. I know we’ve been over this, and at the end of the day it did no lasting damage, but boy what a bad trade.
it was still all 1 and done guys, so pretty much no LT impact. Would have been worse if they traded a stud prospect OF that actually “clicked”, and who could have been a LT part of the team.
and none of us know how much the internal (clubhouse) stuff came into play, in terms of them just wanting pagan gone. Some guys do need that change of scenery.
no, the trade did not work out as a plus to the Mets, but in the big scheme, it was pretty small stuff (and frankly, IMO mostly gets harped on as part of the “GM wars that some people seem to be obsessed with keeping going).
Yes, we don’t need a real closer. we’ll just sign every schlep on the scrapheap and give one of the the job. LOL Nevermind that none of them have ever had any crossover success. Can’t wait to see Pedro pitch to a righty with the winning run on third. I wonder what will happen. LOL
Not sure I get the gist of Clayton’s article , unless it’s “don’t spend alot on bullpen”
Unfortunately, it’s actually not the correct way to look at how to build a bullpen these days. Instead, we know we now have the sabermetric insight to better define which RPs to target, whether it be on a shoestring or banquet budget
.
Ramon Ramirez was never a wise target. For the three-year period ’09-’11, Ramirez was lucky, with Hit rates that were below the league average. His command was also suspect, only striking out 1.5x more hitters than BBs given up. (A pitcher starts to become attractive when ratio of Ks/BBs is 2 or better). As a result, his expected ERA was a full run higher than his actual ERA
But because his ERAs looked good, he was counted on for success. Unfortunately, midnight struck
The As always put together a successful bullpen because they’re better at defining the attributes that make up a good pitcher.
Hi Pat,
I would hold back a bit about crediting sabermetrics giving more insight as to which relief pitchers to acquire or how to build up a bullpen. Baseball people do not get any ground breaking revelation through statistical analysis that they don’t already know already by being professionals themselves.
And we have three of the top saber supporters in the Mets front office and look at what their reliance on sabermetrics has produced the past two seasons just as far as the bullpen is concerned.
Sabermetrics is more useful for fans to better understand in mathematical terms what those in the game have to know instinctively in order to be successful beyond just their talent.
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