5
2013
The End Of Mets’ Bullpen Follies?
An article by André Dobiey
The Bat Phone (Photo by MMO’s Clayton Collier)
Sandy Alderson was quoted yesterday that he doesn´t think the Mets are “far away” from contending at this point. While pretty much everyone agrees that the Mets Infield looks pretty good now & going forward and the rotation at the very least has the potential to become a true asset, the outfield & bullpen remain the most troubling areas on the roster.
It seems apparent that the outfield situation won´t get fixed from within but that the Mets - be it sooner or later – will need to add talent from the outside via free agency or trades. Unless you believe that the current ownership group still remains in severe financial distress, there should be plenty of money available to potentially invest into the outfield for 2014 & beyond.
However, the bullpen may be an area where the Mets won´t need to invest a lot of money, yet still have the upside for a quick and massive turnaround. Just to point out how mediocre (or terrible and inefficient the Mets bullpens have been for quite some time, take a look at the performances over the past 10 seasons:
2012: 458.2 IP, 237 ER, 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
2011: 474.0 IP, 228 ER, 4.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
2010: 481.0 IP, 192 ER, 3.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
2009: 501.2 IP, 217 ER, 3.89 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
2008: 493.1 IP, 234 ER, 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
2007: 511.2 IP, 229 ER, 4.03 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
2006: 542.2 IP, 198 ER, 3.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
2005: 413.0 IP, 180 ER, 3.92 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
2004: 520.1 IP, 226 ER, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
2003: 492.1 IP, 236 ER, 4.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
During that time, the Mets have featured a grand total of 3 (in words THREE) relievers who came up through the Mets farm system (or were still quite young, regardless of where they came from) who provided 50+ innings of relief during any of those seasons, namely Aaron Heilman (from 2005 through 2008), Joe Smith (in 2008) and Bobby Parnell (in 2011 and 2012).
The only other two useful “homegrown” Mets relievers over that span have been Heath Bell & Matt Lindstrom who went on to have solid careers elsewhere but were traded away prior to their success. The Mets bullpens usually were made up of very expensive veteran closers in addition to a couple of – often ineffective – and modestly expensive setup relievers and several veterans or Quadruple-A pitchers that were brought in on the cheap and rarely made a difference.
The one bright spot was the 2006 Cinderella season during which Duaner Sanchez, Chad Bradford, Pedro Feliciano and Darren Oliver – along with Heilman – formed a very strong setup corps for Billy Wagner for one season until injuries, age, free agency and other issues led to a quick demise. Other than that – through four different GMs over that span btw – the results have been somewhere between mediocre to awful. And if you want to see one common theme that has plagued most recent Mets teams, it´s been a rather shaky bullpen.
Could the utter lack of youngish / inexpensive / non-overused relievers be related to this lack of success ?
Take a look at the 2012 Oakland A´s bullpen which beyond veteran Grant Balfour featured a bunch of no-name guys, mostly youngsters who weren’t deemed capable enough as SP.
Ryan Cook, Jerry Blevins, Jordan Norberto or Evan Scribner among several others weren’t exactly household names prior to 2012, yet combined with the rest of the A´s pen produced a 2.94 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 512 IP, allowing 167 ER. And thus better numbers than any Mets pen of the past 10 years has ever posted. For less cost than any Mets bullpen between 2003 and 2012, I might add.
Likewise, the Atlanta Braves bullpen of 2012, obviously led by the “super-season” of homegrown flamethrower Craig Kimbrel posted a 2.76 ERA in 486.1 IP (149 ER) and a 1.19 WHIP. Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Cory Gearrin and Johnny Venters – all young & homegrown pieces contributed along with inexpensive veteran scrap heap pickups Eric O´Flaherty & Chad Durbin. Again, at less combined cost than any of the last 10+ Mets bullpens (thinking about it, probably less than any of the past 25+ Mets bullpens)…
Entering 2013, there finally seems to be help on the very near horizon. For now, 15 pitchers figure to compete for 7 bullpen spots out of spring training – about half of them young / inexperience / inexpensive:
- Frank Francisco
- Bobby Parnell
- Brandon Lyon (apparently)
- Josh Edgin
- Scott Atchison
- LaTroy Hawkins
- Greg Burke
- Jeurys Familia
- Pedro Feliciano
- Robert Carson
- Elvin Ramirez
- Darin Gorski
- Alex Torres
- Jeremy Hefner
- Aaron Laffey
So, at the very least and unlike most past springs, the Mets have a bunch of options to choose from for a variety of roles. By the end of the 2013 season Gonzalez Germen, Jack Leathersich, Cory Mazzoni, Jacob DeGrom, Jenry Mejia (if he doesn´t start), Armando Rodriguez or Collin McHugh (if he doesn´t start) also all could well emerge as viable candidates for bullpen roles going forward.
By spring of 2014, there´s a very strong chance that for the first time in decades (early / mid 1980s ?), the Mets could finally feature a young & inexpensive group of relievers instead of an aging, overpaid and mostly mediocre bullpen. While there´s obviously no guarantee it works, there are plenty of options to choose from and it´s the one area – sort of under the radar – where a team can improve substantially in a hurry by easily shaving off 50+ runs allowed per season at small cost. That alone can be worth a 5+ win swing in any given season (general rule of thumb: 10 Runs – whether they are saved or scored = 1 Win). . Compared to the awful 2012 version, that´s probably up to 8 extra wins. And it doesn´t take a lot of wishful thinking to see it happen during the upcoming one or two seasons based on the depth of young pitching on the rise beyond the “big names”.
About the Author: André Dobiey
I'm a lawyer who hails from and lives in Germany, and have been an avid Mets fan since 1984. I enjoyed rooting for Doc Gooden & David Cone back then. Spent a long time in German Baseball as a board member for the Bonn Capitals (German 1st League team) from 1994 through 2006 and can claim that I've watched Mets farm hand C Kai Gronauer and pretty much every other German born prospect (like Max Kepler or Donald Lutz) in live action far before they became prospects. I follow and watch the Mets and other MLB games via internet TV. Also a big soccer fan (like most Germans).
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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“Could the utter lack of youngish / inexpensive / non-overused relievers be related to this lack of success ?”
No.
Another long-winded article, another person screaming for young, young, young when that has nothing to do with anything that happened in 2006-2008.
Another cheapskate.
Just get the best relievers you possibly can year after year, be SMART in evaluating who you get and if you’re lucky you’ll develop some of your own, if not? Than as long as you are able to win the games you need whether the participants are young or old does NOT matter.
Playing the home-grown card again as if that had anything to do with Mets losing big games during their 90/99/00/06-08 runs.
And of course the obligatory “this is how the Braves did it” and Oakland has a good year in 2012 while the writer makes it seem that how it should be done all the time, but they were eliminated in the 1st round. But the A’s did it right while this writer looks back years later, second guesses & criticizes other successful Mets pennant runs. Mets didn’t advance those years because they didn’t have their own young relievers? Sigh
These long winded posts by these new guys are getting boring already.
Based on comments by Alderson yesterday, it seems once again that the Mets will come up a dollar short. First off, Lyons is not in the bag, but let’s just assume they bag him. Alderson will have failed to get a direct competitor to Effy F for the closer role, despite many public statements at how uneasy he is. Now again we are hearing Parnell, and maybe Lyons gets some opportunities. At this point in the offseason, the FA relief pitchers have very little leverage. There is no reason why they can’t sign Lyons and a proven closer from the group of Valverde, Wilson, and KRod. Especially Wilson, who would probably cost the least, even if he won’t be ready day1. Like Bayonne, I am not against kids, but let them earn it by pushing the vets out of the roles. That’s great if it happens and will provide more trades chips. With all the proclaimed money, and an iffy outfield even if they get Bourn, there is no excuse for not adding Lyons plus and really having an alternative to FF. I would look at this team much differently if they go that route.
Maybe it´s a more recent trend, but most successful teams of recent time have employed mostly youngish and inexpensive bullpens.
Washington, Atlanta, St.Louis, Oakland or Tampa Bay, just to name a few.
Sure, there have also been bullpens with more experienced relievers – such as Cincy or SF. However, even those bullpens rarely featured prolific free agent signings but relievers in their late 20s that haven´t yet reached free agency but were traded for or picked up as former non-tenders.
And had you read my post, you´d have realized that the solution isn´t “young young young” but rather that what the Mets have done over the past 10+ years (i.e. mostly veterans due to a lack of young arms) hasn´t exactly worked. And also that they should spend where spending makes sense – say for an outfield. Because the next Mets playoff outfield in all likelihood won´t come from within (unless we´re targeting 2017 for the next Mets playoff team).
HI Andre,
“Unless you believe that the current ownership group still remains in severe financial distress, there should be plenty of money available to potentially invest into the outfield for 2014 & beyond.”
All indications by their actions, inactivity and financial information available shows that yes, they are still in severe financial distress. We have to also remember that it is most likely they will suffer from another drop in revenue this year and that they did not use revenue from SNY to help reduce their fiancial troubles in the past – even during the two times they were unable to meet their monthly expenses and needed to get bailed out MLB either in a direct loan or MLB taking the financial responsiblity for the bridge loan that followed.
Joey, I strongly disagree that the word “severe” can be used to characterize the Mets’ current financial situation.
If 10 represents a franchise in perfect financial health and flush with cash, and 1 is “severe” and represents the Mets in 2011 and the first half of 2012, then the Mets are currently about a 5.
The sale of the minority shares, the generally favorable outcome of the Madoff lawsuit, the stemming of the losses in the team operations, and the refinancing have all added up to much more financially secure team than was the case during 2011.
they did not use revenue from SNY to help reduce their fiancial troubles in the past – even during the two times they were unable to meet their monthly expenses and needed to get bailed out MLB either in a direct loan or MLB taking the financial responsiblity for the bridge loan that followed.
This is not true. Revenues from SNY are regularly used to prop up the team. This is what the Red Sox and Yankees also do with NESN and YES. RSN revenues can’t fully cover their debts, but they help out.
This article references how SNY profits are used for the team:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/red_ink_shrinkin_oSduO3mleUFk4leJwx8MAO
Hi Metro,
Didn’t say they didn’t make money off SNY, but that even with the revenue from SNY it still didn’t prevent them from having to look to MLB for that loan and then to back up the bridge loan a bit later on.
The financial issue today we agree to disagree on. I’ve listed so many things to cast a legitimate doubt on that as well, but remember what you once said to me – nobody actually knows how much money a team really has for they don’t open their books to the public – so that principles has to be abided by you as well.
What I have based my conclusions beyond just the speculative financial information but from statements made by Sandy (if he was being honest, of course) and all the actions we’ve seen since the scandle became public knowledge, not just with the Mets but with MLB and financial instutitions themselves.
We probably both will have a better idea this time next year
Joey, you said “they did not use revenue from SNY to help reduce their fiancial troubles in the past” and that is wrong. They do and have done that. No one has ever said SNY revenues fully cover the team’s debt. Just that they help lessen them.
As for the current financial condition of the team, we will agree to disagree. Yes, I said that no one really knows what goes in their books — and that is the absolute truth (with the exception of maybe someone like Howard or maybe Selig). And running a team like the Mets is a shell game that we can’t begin to decipher. But there are NO signs that the current Mets are in the same financial bind they were in during 2011 and entering 2012.
What signs would one look for? Leaked reports about the Mets scampering for extra loans, leaked reports of perhaps vendors not being paid, and leaked reports of more shares of the Mets being put up for sale. Even MOST of the media (though not all) are admitting the Mets have turned the corner in a significant way.
So in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, one has to conclude that the Mets are in much better financial shape than they were in 2011 and the early part of 2012.
From mid 2010 through mid 2012, I agree that this ownership group was in severe financial distress and barely able to hold onto the franchise. They needed bridge loans, needed to hand out the minority shares and cut costs drastically to hang on.
However, with the Picard case settled in a very modest way, the payroll downsized to a point where operating losses by the Mets pretty much equal SNY gains (for the Wilpon share in it) in both 2012 and probably 2013 as well, plus “fresh” money of well over 150 million $ being paid out to the Wilpons in their re-financing, things are looking up quite a bit.
The 2014 payroll – for now – stands at below 60 million $ – with deferred payments to Jason Bay the Mets probably are in the low 60 millions in terms of actual payout commitments. Every MLB team receives about an additional 11 million $ from 2014 on as part of the new National TV deal. So, where the break-even point for the – isolated – Mets break-even may have been around 75 million $ recently, it´ll jump up to about 85 million. If you are willing and able to invest the SNY gains – which are at least 20+ million for the Wilpons´ shares from what has been written, that would allow for a 105 million $ payroll or so in 2014 – without having to even touch the 150+ million $ in new liquid funds the Wilpons have received in their recent restructuring of loans.
It also doesn´t account for the potential of rising revenue if the team is performing better in 2014 or going forward. Which would allow for a higher Mets payroll and also increase the profits for SNY shares.
So, I don´t see any reason why the Mets shouldn´t have significant payroll flexibility again from next season on. Unless the Wilpons feel it´s better to milk profits by continueing to lower costs and have a mediocre team instead of the potential of higher profits with a strong team. But again, it will totally be up to Alderson to spend in 2014 and field a 100 to 110 million payroll that season – if he elects to do so.
It´s still not the LA Dodgers or LA Angels in terms of spending of course, heck not even the Phillies or Nationals. And I´d rather see the Wilpons sell the team today than tomorrow. However, as unfortunate as that may be , they seem to be over the hump…
Yes! This is exactly what I was talking about when I said earlier today that Sandy appears to have learned his lesson and is approaching the bullpen in a smarter way.
Whether it works or not is the big question. But, at least when you start out on this path, it’s smart to supplement those arms with some veterans — and Lyon and Byrdak could provide that veteran guidance.
Even at times the Braves supplemented their pen with veterans like Wagner.
The Mets should have 30+ million to spend next winter in the FA market. Hopefully they bring in another good veteran presence into the bullpen with some of that money, because Frankie, Lyon and Byrdak may no longer be there. .
HI Metro,
He is still signing to minor league contracts either reclamation projects or veterans rejected by other teams. Only the names are different – they are no longer Carasco, Boyer, Bulhotz,
There were many young and talented arms out there for him to pursue but he didn’t. Same with some older and still talented arms as well.
“There were many young and talented arms out there for him to pursue but he didn’t. ”
Really?
Who?
HI TR,
Had attached lists of 2012 free agents many times which included the likes of Broxton (28), Soria (28), Gorzelanny (an old guy at 30) plus still un-signed relievers like Capps (29), Matt Lindstrom (also an old guy at 32) and, of course, KRod (31).
In 2011, those also included Broxton and Capps along with Mijares (28) and the since injured Madson (also an old guy at 32).
That’s eight right there – none older than 32 – and any two of them (other than Madson) would have made a great difference. The older relievers would have helped more but I was talking specifically in terms of young players.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/position/rp
Wait Joey – are you classifying “under 32″ and “young”?
Lyon has almost been reeled in. And all teams sign reclamation projects to minor league deals. Even the Yankees.
Bhucholz was actually pretty good, and they lost him to a medical condition.
No Carrasco or Rauch: type signing in sight this year.
Unless the guys we have are going to get the team BP Whip under 1.3 they have accomplished nothing.
No playoff team had a BP WHIP above 1.26 last year.
Should bring back Rauch. His WHIP was below 1.0 last year.
Most of that is due to how he was used in the second half….
He was used much less the 2nd half.
In the first half he pitched 37 games, 31.1 IP (.84IP per Game) and gave up 30H and 19 runs (14 ER) Thats nearly a hit per game/Inning and one run every two games/innings
Second half Pitched 36 games, 26.1 IP (.725 IPPG) and gave up 15H and 9R (all ER).
1 less game and 5 fewer innings is much less? It certainly doesn’t account for his HR total and runs allowed being cut in half.
Sure it does…They made sure to pick thier spots with him and didn’t let him face situations and players who he had showed no ability to retire…
They also had him on a short hook. They did not let him finish innings or go that extra batter like they did in the first half.
“They made sure to pick thier spots with him and didn’t let him face situations and players who he had showed no ability to retire”
Can you elaborate on that? What is the difference in his use from the first half from the second.
I mean specifically. Not, “everybody knows they did stuff”. Tell me what situations they avoided or what players he wasn’t allowed to face.
stats are above….
You want more then I suggest you do yor own research…It’s pretty clear he got almost a batter more in the first half than he got in the 2nd….
I addressed the stats above. They do not confirm your claim. You then claimed he was used differently and I asked you to clarify that.
I’m not here to do your work. If it happened, there is a record of it. Back up your claim.
Sure they do and since you refuse to make a point or prove what it is you THINK happened your lack of evidence (due to your usual lazy bastard self) means you have no point….
Since I do and backed it up with numbers you either accept what I said or you prove it to be wrong.
He pitched less per game in the second half!
And due to that his numbers went down!
No, they don’t. All you did was demonstrate that Rauch pitched 5 fewer innings but gave up half as many HR and RS. The production is not proportionate to the appearances.
“Since I do and backed it up with numbers you either accept what I said or you prove it to be wrong.”
You never backed up your claim that they changed the situations in which they used him. If Rauch faced fewer batters, that could easily be due to him being more effective after the knee healing. pitching .04 fewer innings per appearance doesn’t account for the drastic change in his results.
Show us how he was used differently. If it is so obvious and you saw the proof, it shouldn’t be a burden to share it.
Less innings per game….
Picked which batters he would face….
Have a point to make prvide your data….
If not your just playing the contradiction game with no evidence to back it up….
Which is all you EVER do (we all know) because your incapable of making a point on your own unless Jessup has made it for you and you can play parrot!
pitched .04 fewer innings per appearance. Whoah, that is a huge shift.
You have done nothing to show they changed how they used him, only that he pitched 5 fewer innings after the All Star Game. He remained the late inning set up guy. Every available piece of info says he maintained the same role. Did he pitch in other situations? Sure, when thye were in need of an arm or he needed work.
But, they kept him in the same place most of the time.
And fewer appearances…They add up!
Fewer appearance. Singular. 1 less appearance. You haven’t shown anything that can’t be explained by something like September call ups getting some work in.
In fact, in August, he had more appearances than any other month.
Sure I did I showed they used him less….
1 less appearance, Less in EACH appearance….
ALl you have proved so far is that your a time wasting bumbling contrarian who can’t make a point, prove anyone wrong…just waste their time…
Since my proof says what I said it did…Used him less and differently than the first half and you got nothing to deny what I said I guess I win!
Now until you come up with some facts you would like me to comment on…Move along Doggie!
1 less appearance in each appearance? Talking be hard.
Your “proof” says he had 1 less appearance in the second half and 5 fewer innings. It does not say his role had been changed.
I see you still got nothin and came up blank….
When you get something maybe someone will be nice enough to respond to it…..
Until then keep us abreast of yor progress in finding a point…
Two points, Rauch’s innings and appearences would have been virtually identical if not for having a few issues with his knees at the All-Star break which ended in him having them drained. Second there’s no evidence his role changed in the second half. He was actually brought into the game before the 8th twice as many times in the first half (probably because of his struggles), and he was a better pitcher in high leverage situations.
Please no.
Off topic- interesting- Ramon Ramirez back with the Giants along with of course Andres Torres.
I take it that they’re out of the running now for Lyon. I wont be shocked if he reverted to how he was before coming here.
Sabean’s measure of revenge for Beltran not working out
Fast Forward, September 2013 – Ramon Ramirez has a sub 2.60 ERA and people come here and bash Sandy for not bringing him back.
Yeah and at the same time we will have won 68 games and yet we will STILL see posts from a few cultists who claim WE ARE CLOSER and BETTER than we were when Omar was in charge…
Thought that would go without saying.
Also off topic and interesting- acc. to Martino- the Mets clubhouse culture will be entirely new this year- The Dickster, Hairston, Bay,Thole and Young all were strong. positive personalities.
they still have Murphy.
The nice thing about our shot in the dark and throw the spaghetti against the wall and hope it sticks approach to building an MLB roster is that with bullpens you never know. They are almost impossible to predict. Therefore, having 14 or 15 legit options for 7 spots going into Spring Training is a good thing. Now just keep on hoping for the best…it’s all we can do.
ideally, there is enough left in the pot to form a strong pen in AAA too, so they have reinforcements as needed.
that chart is a reminder of how, for as many games as they won in 2006, the SP really was not all that good, and certainly did not pitch a lot innings. That pen was used a ton.
Well here is someone this site could do without….and it’s apparent JoeD has tried considering the attempt to hide the identity with a made up Nick meant to incite trouble….
Metsie I’ll bet money that it’s a RDM person, they like to do things like this here and on Twitter. The other clown that stalks me is Kramer67 and this doesn’t appear to be his MO but u never know. The follow me all over the place so I guess that’s my “fan club” by default. And a lousy fake moniker too.
I’ll guess it’s Kingman/ChestRockwell.
Oh well
It’s not an RDM person and they have more integrity than you give them credit for.
Well Joe, I don’t know. Than who is it if you know. And with all due respect you weren’t exactly forthright in your explanation on who “cleanup” was and made up a few stories of your own so that day changed a lot. Remember “Miguel”? And don’t make me explain it.
So that’s why i don’t believe you if you say it’s not an RDM person. Tell us who it is and I will take it back.
What does RDM mean?
Real Dirty Mets
Whoever it was it was obviously someone who can’t post under a Nick we all know or recognize because they know if they did JoeD would ban them and then they would have no way to post here….
Who, isn’t important the fact they are identified as an idiot is what is key here….
….or we could’ve just kept Dickey, and never lost the 14-20 possible wins, not to mention the 200+ innings negating the need for deep bullpens when he pitched. I know, I know…we got younger and deeper for the future, but who among us is guaranteed anything!?!?!