25
2013
Taking 2013 Optimism To The Bronx
An article by 
I love the air of optimism that occurs this time of year. Over the last few days we’ve seen a slew of MMO writers share their optimistic predictions for 2013, all sharing the same tone “Why not us?”
In truth, the question is fair. Last year, nobody saw Oakland coming. The year prior, Arizona caught the league off guard and took the division from the 2010 World champion Giants. The last two years have had fans around the country thinking, “Is this the year the Pirates compete?”
The truth is, baseball is a funny game. The Mets were as exciting of a team to watch as there was in the sport until the All-Star break last year. They ran out of gas, and luck.
Getting to that point is half the battle though isn’t?
I don’t share the same optimism about the predicted result for the Mets in 2013, but I do believe they have enough talent to surprise people. When you’re in a situation like the Mets, the theme of your season centers around the word “if.”
If Wright and Ike can lead the offense and complement each other.
If Harvey and Niese can make a name for themselves in the National League.
If Wheeler can come up and have an impact.
If d’Arnaud can be the backstop we need.
If the outfield surprises us all.
If the bullpen avoids huge let downs.
If the team stays healthy.
In reality, none of those scenarios are impossible or even unlikely at some point. It’s just a matter of whether it all comes together at the same time.
But I’m going to take their optimism a step further. In poker, this would be considered a raise.
I’m optimistic that within 3 years, the New York Mets are the toast of Gotham City. I look at the New York Yankees, and I see a team that is running out of time. You cannot outrun father time. None of us can. When you take a look at their farm system, anybody they are even close to excited about is still years away. They admit this.
Their top prospect, Gary Sanchez just finished A+ ball. Their second best prospect, Tyler Austin got called up to AA at the very end of the season last year.
The core of their dynasty is closing in on taking their final steps on the field, and their first steps toward Monument Park.
What if this is partly by design by the Mets? In 2005 and 2006, there’s no denying that the Mets made an attempt to take back New York City when they opened their checkbooks for guys like Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. It could be argued that they were a tad premature in their attempt because the Yankees were still willing and able to spend on huge free agents such as Sabathia.
The game is changing though. Players like Sabathia, and Tex are not as likely to enter free agency during their prime. More and more, teams are building around their young core and using free agency to complement those players. The Red Sox are trying to do it now, and the Yankees will start to head that way shortly.
Before you call my optimism foolish or blind, answer me this. If (there’s that word again) the Mets core of Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Wright, Davis, d’Arnaud are as advertised, then 2-3 years from now who do the Yankees have to compete with that? They will likely extend Cano, but after him, what exactly do the Yankees have to make me think the Mets aren’t built to attempt a takeover of New York City in the near future?
A 34 year old Teixeria? An aging Sabathia? An unhealthy Pineda? Who exactly is going to put them over? The truth is, it’s more likely that the Yankees are preparing for a similar roster situation as what the Mets were dealing with over the last few years.
There’s no denying that the Yankees regained control of New York City by developing their young talent and bringing in complimentary veterans. Why can’t the Mets be primed to do the same?
For those that may think this doesn’t matter, I will remind you that some of the greatest moments in this franchise’s history came when the Mets, not the Yankees had the heart of New York.
When I think of this year for the Mets, I will take each day with a grain of salt. Should they surprise me and compete for a playoff spot, I will appreciate the moment. To me, 2013 unlike 2012 and 2011 have a great purpose.
The prior years were about treading water, and finding ways to get rid of contracts. Now, this year is the start of special potentially special. Can Wheeler and Harvey take the necessary steps to become one of the best 1-2 combinations in the NL? Can d’Arnaud being behind the dish not only provide adequate numbers but also help our young pitchers grow? Can Ike Davis and David Wright create a feared 3-4 tandem for years to come?
If those realistic scenarios occur, I believe the Mets could once again take over the hearts of New York and have Yankees fans reminiscing about the way it used to be.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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Do the Yankees play in our division? no?
Atlanta and Washington are going the same route as the Yankees? No ?
So best case scenario is we are a .500 team fighing for a 2nd playoff spot while the Yankees are a .500 team fighting for a 2nd playoff spot
YAY !!!!!
Damaja – As always, thanks for taking the time to read and comment.
You’re not wrong, the division and playoff picture do not matter. However, half the battle with attracting players to come to New York is competing with the Yankees. When both teams are going after lets say Hunter Pence just for example. The future outlook of the Mets in New York City can play a vital role in deciding whether or not Pence wishes to play here does it not?
When a team is struggling and the biggest show in town is about to hit a decline, it helps when your team is on it’s way up. That generates more money, more interest and more respectability as a franchise.
Though that doesn’t beat the Nats on paper – it certainly helps.
Players rarely come to the Mets because they love the Mets. We always have to overpay top FA to come to the Mets.
The only thing that the Mets being better than the Yankees provides is bragging rites and perhaps more attendance that leads to more cash and hopefully a better product.
but there are other major markets in baseball…and some of them dont trash their players the way the mets do…
trashing RA Dickey on his way out certainly isnt going to help….
trashing Ike …
and from years previous…
trashing Beltran
trashing Reyes
trashing Delgado…
and u are assuming the yankees will fall into some abyss….
they do have David Adams….a good hitting 2B prospect….
they do have Dante Bichette Jr.. a good hitting 3B prospect
they do have Mason WIlliams … a good hitting CF prospect…
The Mets 2014 to 2018 outlook will be determined by two main factors:
# 1 How good will the young pitching be – not only Harvey / Wheeler but the 2013+ bullpen candidates from the upper levels plus the host of young arms currently in A-ball. If that turns into a strong & deep staff, the Mets will have a very good chance to compete with the Nats and Braves….
…if
# 2 The payroll will be managed as it should be. Obviously, it´ll be tough competing with a 75 million $ payroll going forward vs. a pretty young Braves team in the 110 million range and a pretty young Nats team in the 130+ million range. However, if the Mets – from 2014 & beyond – are willing & able to sport payrolls in the 100 to 150 million $ range (about 100 million in 2014, closer to 150 or even higher by 2018), which should easily be possible in terms of getting enough revenue to pay for it if the team is good, then the Mets have a very good chance to be right in that mix. Assuming # 1 works out as planned.
Leave poor jessep alone mates. she has not recovered from the ending of her call for the inquisition of Mr Gonzalez, Unable to apologize for her pathetic call to arms, jessup must change the subject hoping that panning the hated Yankees returns her to good stead amongst the cult, Sandy’s cult, which has an official name now, Fail and friends.
Padilla – I can always count on you to read and write. So thanks for that ratings boost.
As for Gio Gonzalez… when the report came out, Gio denied ever working with or speaking with the clinic’s owner who allegedly gave Gio his “clean” supplements which cleared Gio of any wrong doing right?
So, riddle me this. How can Gio be cleared because the supplements he received from the owner were “legal” when he came out and fully denied ever working with the guy?
If Gio wants to come out and verify the story that says he did work with Bosch but it was on the level – I’m cool with that. But, that also means he lied when he released his statement right?
well, werren’t you hell and bent defending ryan braun to no end as well last year? how that worked out for you? Is simple, if one of us like a player you’d do the unthinkable to prove how that player sucks, you’ve done that many times, then if we don’t like a player you’d go to greater lenghts to defend that player. You tell us to love all met players, including wright, yet you hated reyes when he was here, now you switch to ike davis because we like the guy… Snake and evil ways to approach a blog no?
I regret to inform you that your opinion on which baseball players I like or dislike makes absolutely no sense, and I award you no points.
I promise you Alex68 that at no time in my life do I base my opinion on a baseball player on whether or not people I’ve never ever met show their appreciation toward that player. You say I hated Jose Reyes, you’re wrong. You say I hate Ike Davis, your only evidence of such a fact is that I want him to play better for 162 games. Shame on me huh?
But hey, thanks for reading and commenting! +1 for me right?
Nice post, Michael. You inform the nay-sayers. Go Mets.
Interesting. Yet as much as the cross-town rivalry matters… it doesn’t.
It will always matter in the grand scheme of things. The media, the back page, the reputation, the appeal toward potential free agents. It all matters.
A game in June, I agree with you matters less than some choose to make of it. But when you have the biggest media market in the country and potentially 1 young and exciting successful team versus 1 old declining team, it matters.
If the Mets go 71-91 and beat the Yankees 9/10 times will that make it a good season? Again, as nice as it is to be better than the Yankees, it’s just drivel.
“The media, the back page, the reputation, the appeal toward potential free agents”
Yup i agree….
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5547824
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-owner-fred-wilpon-rips-david-wright-jose-reyes-carlos-beltran-new-yorker-piece-article-1.143228
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/sports/baseball/r-a-dickey-deserved-better-from-mets.html?_r=0
would u like more ?
I think you underrate the Yanks a bit. If Nunez played for the Mets we would be anointing him the next Reyes. He is as talented and athletic as any position player the Mets have. If he gets over the fielding issues (a big if) he is all star caliber. Brett Gardner would be our best outfielder. And it is a little premature to anoint our arms better then theirs considering all the hype around them last year before they went bust. Ours could do the same. Plus Giancarlo Stanton is a 25 – 30 million dollar a year player and that means the Yanks or the Dodgers. I am betting on the Yanks. They may fall off this year due to the Jays improvement and their own age issues but dont count them out in the future. it would be foolish given history.
While true, you are also forgetting the issue the Yanks have with money. Adding that type of money will cause them to make some tough decisions for sure.
Stanton to the Yankees? Typical Yankee fan believing everyone is going to be in pinstripes. I remember posting on a Yankee board how the Yankees were like Greece, in for austerity. The Yankee fans panned me with “no way, we are signing Greinke” (Hamilton, Upton, etc…). Now, with Stanton, what are the Yankees going to give up for him? Their minor leagues arent that great and Stanton is going to require quite a haul for the Marlins to trade him.
As for the idea that only the Dodgers can be in the running, it seems to me that the Red Sox have signed some big contracts in the past. As did the Angels. Rangers. Phillies. And there are a couple of those teams who can afford the price tag while having a much stronger farm system than the Yankees.
I agree with the premise of your article. The Yankees are on a downward spiral for the exact reasons you mentioned. I am glad to see someone else who noticed the trend in baseball away from FA. Yankee fans are clueless to this fact I am sure. Teams are locking up players and, in the past few seasons, we saw a lot of big names extended, thus avoiding the FA market. The trend will continue.
The battle for the back page is important in NYC. It has been so long since the Mets won it that a generation of fans have no clue what it was like when the Mets ruled NYC. THe Yankees, contrary to popular belief, are not an unmovable force. Those old enough to remember the 1960s and CBS ownership or the 1980s and George trying to buy championships will remember how low the Yankees sunk.
I will take the position the Mets are in as opposed to the Yankees any day. I feel the Mets are on the upward path while the Yanks have nothing but trouble ahead. Look at their holes:
C-?
1B-Tex…downward trend
2B-Cano…stud
SS-Jeter…age catching up
3B-Major ??? going forward
LF-???
CF-Gardner…will say okay there
RF-Ichiro….not a long term answer
Closer-Rivera….almost done
SP-Sabathia…still a stud
SP-Hughes…fine ML pitcher
SP-Nova….is he 2011 or 2012
SP-Petitte…not much left
SP-Kuroda…same as Petitte
So the Yankees need a C, SS, RF, LF, Closer, and at least 2 SP with no money. Not a good position to be in.
The Phillies are soon to be another team in that same position.
I believe their payroll sits at about 5-7 MIL under the luxury cap right now.
They’ve got an aging team and their best prospects are in the lower minors as well.
task, it is a big difference between checkbook GMing and having to pony up a monster prospect package to get a guy like Stanton. All the money in the world is not going to help if you don’t have the chips to trade!
SRT, 1 more year for the Phils. They are vastly healthier and stronger than last year (in the 1st half). So barring more major injuries, they will be right there in the mix dicing for the division.
the real interesting call is after this year, do they extend the big expiring contracts (Utley and Halladay, the real heart of the team). But no, they don’t have a lot in the minors. A few decent guys, but not much close or high end.
I still think the Steinbrenner sons have thoughts of selling that team in the near future.
yup !
and i doubt any new owners are going to be in austerity mode from day one
I’ve read speculation that is why they sold a big chunk of YES to CBS. they see pro sports profitability ready to dive and want to get while the getting is good.
The Yankees in my opinion regained New York by winning all those W.S. Titles while the Mets couldn’t win a title since 1986. The Mets want to regain New York? Win a W.S. Ring. That will do it.
Good piece, jessep. I definitely see the Yankees on the way down and the Mets on the way up right now. But how much of a divergence we will see from recent years remains to be seen. There are too many variables in play here.
People ask why this is important? You mentioned attracting free agents, and I agree with you that this is important. But it is also important for the Mets to stop the erosion in their fan base, which has implications for future attendance and revenues. The only way they can start to grow it again is by winning. And if the Yankees lose at the same time, then more of the younger fans, casual fans and fence sitters will be going over to the Mets. It will make the Mets job easier.
The Yankees are on the way down because they stopped doing what it was that sustained all that winning since 1995,,,,
They stopped paying and buying the top free Agents available every year!
Not because they stopped developing kids because they could not get at the kids needed to rebuild a core…
The last time the Yankees picked in the first half of the 1st round was back in 2005, Before that It was 1993 and 1992 Where they picked 13th (Drews) and 6th (Where they got Jeter!)
The only other pick NOT in the 20′s was Carl Henry (17th overall)…Hard to keep the Farm train rolling when you pick after that year after year for 15-20 years, The only two homegrown contributors have been Cano (whose clock has run out) and Chamberlin.
The Yankees used to handily beat all comers until they stopped playing spend whatever and get the best guy available…
They stopped that sometime around the year they lost Cliff Lee to the Phillies…
If this was 10 years ago or George was still running things guys like Texiera would have been traded by now and replaced with a guy like Pujols or Fielder!
It was the Yankee SUCCESS that stopped them from adding new and younger Core memebers to thier team and allowing what core they have to age and get expensive to the point they no longer FIT what people think is so important to have a core in the first place….Yet it didn’t seem all that important since they were having the success that some think a young core is important and REQUIRED to have….The problem is getting the core requires having some bad seasons to get the pick needed to create it and barring that it takes spending (even if you have a core) to get the consistent winning….
Yankees took the last losing seasons and built a core…and Spent to make it a winner…That winner stopped them from adding to the core yet they still won…
Now they may not and why? Because they haven’t added new core? NOPE! Because they stopped spending to kee the team the best by going after the best players available that has carried them for 15-20 years after that core arrived and most of which has gone already!
And since they have stopped adding the best player in the game at least once a year they are now starting to show signs of decline.