12
2013
Revamped Mets Bullpen Could Surprise In 2013
An article by 
Opportunity cost is an economic term that means the highest valued alternative foregone to pursue an activity.
It’s like if you worked at a bakery baking cakes and pies. Your shift is five hours long. In one hour, you’re able to bake one cake or two pies. If you spent zero hours on cakes and five hours on pies, you would have zero cakes and 10 pies at the end of your shift. If you spent one hour baking cakes and four hours baking pies, you would have one cake and eight pies—and so on and so forth. For every hour you spend making cakes, your opportunity cost is two pies.
I applaud you for making it past this introduction. Thanks for bearing with my baking analogy. The reason I bring up opportunity cost is because there are many things it can be applied to—like the Mets’ bullpen for example.
This offseason, the Mets have focused on tweaking their ever-underachieving bullpen. Jon Rauch will take his 3-7 record and 50-percent save-rate talents to South Beach. Ramon Ramirez will jet back to the West Coast—hoping everyone in the Bay missed his subpar 2012 season. Good thing we have Frank Francisco locked up for another year at $6.5 million…
The Mets have plenty of options. As a result, the bullpen has struggled to find an identity. Here are some of the relief acquisitions the Mets have made this offseason:
I’ve looked at all the Mets’ relief pitchers to see whose numbers are best in particular innings. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll break down the best potential candidates for the back end of the bullpen. While the Mets have a plethora of young bullpen arms, I decided to look at the players who had at least 10 innings pitched in that particular inning last year1.
Five players have 10 innings pitched in the 7th inning. Here are their stats.
- Scott Atchison: ERA – 2.76 / WHIP – 0.99 / BA – .220 / OBP – .258 / K/BB – 3.33
- Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 2.92 / WHIP – 1.16 / BA – .222 / OBP – .314 / K/BB – 1.75
- LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 4.26 / WHIP – 1.39 / BA – .280 / OBP – .315 / K/BB – 2.00
- Brandon Lyon: ERA – 3.86 / WHIP – 1.43 / BA – .263 / OBP – .323 / K/BB – 3.00
- Bobby Parnell: ERA – 2.20 / WHIP – 1.43 / BA – .237 / OBP – .333 / K/BB – 1.56
One could say that Atchison’s stats are the best out of these relievers and he should pitch in the 7th. One could also say that his stats are more dominant in the 8th and that he should pitch there instead. Here are the qualifiers for the 8th inning:
- Scott Atchison: ERA – 0.00 / WHIP – 0.77 / BA – .174 / OBP – .208 / K/BB – 6.00
- Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 3.44 / WHIP – 1.56 / BA – .261 / OBP – .357 / K/BB – 2.06
- LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 1.27 / BA – .268 / OBP – .305 / K/BB – 3.00
- Brandon Lyon: ERA – 3.42 / WHIP 1.25 / BA. – .244 / OBP – .303 / K/BB – 3.43
- Bobby Parnell: ERA – 2.86 / WHIP – 1.41 / BA – .311 / OBP – .333 / K/BB – 5.00
If we apply opportunity cost, we would discover that the cost of playing Atchison in 7th is greater than if he pitched in the 8th. Opportunity cost can be measured by solving for the difference between his numbers in the 8th and the next best stat line in that inning. Then you compare it against all other innings he could potentially pitch in. For example, let’s compare the opportunity cost for Atchison pitching in either the 7th or 8th inning. Those are the only two innings he qualifies for. Arguably, the next best alternative in the 8th inning is Hawkins. Here are their 8th-inning stats side-by-side:
- LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 1.27 / BA – .268 / OBP – .305 / K/BB – 3.00
- Scott Atchison: ERA – 0.00 / WHIP – 0.77 / BA – .174 / OBP – .208 / K/BB – 6.00
Differences (all favor Atchison): ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 0.50 / BA. – .094 / OBP – .097 / K/BB – 3.00
Compare that to the differences in the 7th between Atchison and Feliciano (arguably the best alternative).
- Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 2.92 / WHIP – 1.16 / BA – .222 / OBP – .314 / K/BB – 1.75
- Scott Atchison: ERA – 2.76 / WHIP – 0.99 / BA – .220 / OBP – .258 / K/BB – 3.33
Differences (all favor Atchison): ERA – 0.16 / WHIP – 0.17 / BA – .002 / OBP – .056 / K/BB – 1.58
To figure out the final opportunity cost, take the two sets of differences for each inning and find the difference between them.
Differences between 7th and 8th inning (all favor 8th): ERA – 1.68 / WHIP – 0.33 / BA – .092 / OBP – .041 / K/BB – 1.42
We do this because we’re assuming that he’s going to pitch in either the 7th or 8th inning. So if Atchison pitched in the 7th, you would still have to factor in the differences between him and Feliciano in that inning. They just don’t disappear.
If we assume that all these variables are true, then we can determine Atchison’s potential opportunity cost. Just looking at ERA, it would cost the Mets Atchison’s 1.68 if he pitched in the 7th rather than the 8th.
By interpreting the given information within these parameters, the best potential 8th-inning pitcher would be Atchison. It’s not completely scientific. Crazy things happen in baseball, but this gives us a more educated look at the Mets’ bullpen choices from an economic perspective.
I’ll be back with more projections later.
1I’m including Feliciano’s last season, which was in 2010 with the Mets. I would take his stats with a grain of salt considering he hasn’t pitched in two years. That being said, the Mets are in no position to be picky.
About the Author: Daniel Nelson
Dan Nelson is a junior at San Francisco State University majoring in Journalism and minoring in Economics. He was born in Fair Lawn, New Jersey where he grew up watching the Mets. Dan was also the recipient of the 2013/2014 Otto J. Bos Memorial Scholarship, the largest scholarship the SF State journalism department has to offer. You can follow him on Twitter @pacific_theme
12 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- JerseyGuy276: on Gee Roughed Up As Braves Shutout The Mets 6-0: So, I was actually at this game...
- Hank: on Gee Roughed Up As Braves Shutout The Mets 6-0: This Sandy Alderson delusion needs to stop....
- Hitman: on Gee Roughed Up As Braves Shutout The Mets 6-0: They should start around the first base...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Gee Roughed Up As Braves Shutout The Mets 6-0: As the Mets LOSE and LOSE they...
- Franklin: on Gee Roughed Up As Braves Shutout The Mets 6-0: If you sign free agents then you...
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5397 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Great piece. i like our options in the ‘pen this year. A good mix between young Mets prospects (Edgin, Familia, Hefner, Ramirez, long shots like McHugh, Gorski) in with older vets: Hawkins, Feliciano, Burke, Lyon, Laffey, Atchinson…along with Parnell and (gulp) Francisco. Should be an interesting ST. And then we’ve got guys coming up fact from the farm, like Leathersich, Mazzoni, Kolarek, Whitenton…
Nice analysis.
I was wondering what you were using for Pedro – until I got to the end of your article.
If this BP isn’t an improvement, it’s not for lack of attention. Plenty of young arms with veterans competing.
Atchinson looks like he might be a sleeper.
Anything we get out of Pedro is a plus. Thanks Yankees for rehabbing his injury for us!
I really like what I saw from Edgin in his SSS last season.
I thought Parnell’s numbers were better than what you’re showing here but numbers don’t lie.
I think the biggest question mark is going to be FF as closer. Have to wonder how long a leash he’s going to get.
The Mets pen last year ranked 11th in WHIP, 15th in the NL in ERA and 15th in Ks. They needed lots of improvement, and I think they’ve done well. It’ll be interesting to see how it works out, but I’m optimistic.
The other area of pitching that needs improvement is the number of SPs that we use. The Reds and Giants each had 5 SPs with at least 30 starts. The Reds used only one other starter, SF only 2 more SPs for a total of 2 IPs. Mets used 13 SPs, including 6 with less than 10 IP each. There were 11 starts by Miguel Batista, McHugh, and Schwinden. That has to change.
I could see either Santana or Marcum getting traded mid-season, depending how they pitch and how Wheeler, Mejia, Familia develop. If the team can get 30 starts out of Niese and Harvey, 25-27 out of Santana, Marcum, and Gee, and 10 out of Wheeler, that would leave 15 starts for guys like Hefner, Familia, and Mejia. That would be OK for a transition year, and in 2014 you could reasonably expect 30 GS each from Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, and maybe even Gee.
Dave, I hope the weather in Spain is better than the weather in New York today. As to your point, why is it the assumption that we did a great job revamping the bullpen? We heard these same accolades being poured out all over blogs last year. Ramon Ramirez was an apparent steal in the Pagan deal, and the glowing stories about Rauch and Francisco were a bit too premature and irrational. Lets call this what it is. A tiny spending spree on the bottom of the barrel relievers that were still available in late January.Chances are that the bullpen could be just as worse as it could be better.
Wex, I didn’t say great job, I said good job. But outside of the closer (sometimes) bullpens are a crapshoot. There is now a mix of guys at little or no financial committment, that the team can evaluate for the final 3-4 spots. I think that’s the best approach at this point, as there are no guarantees.
And yes, the weather is a lot better here than in the northeast US! A little chilly and windy north of Barcelona, but sunny and delightful. I don’t miss shoveling at all!
P.s.- the mix includes both younger and older, experienced pitchers. This mix could take some pressure off he young guys, as well as provide some mentoring.
By default “hopefully” they have done a good job because it could not get any worse than last year wasting all that money on a failed bullpen. And wasting millions when they didn’t have much to spare made it worse.
It could be worse or it could be better is correct, but it is definitely deeper. That and the presence of the lefties in this pen for a full year and the youth on the farm that is ready to contribute, mainly Mejia and Famillia, leads me to believe it will be much more improved.
Dave – appreciate the effort, but that was painful. What @ Greg Burke, who was unhittable after he dropped his arm angle? He’ll provide a different look and likely will give right-handed batters fits.
Its Groundhog Day. same exact line last year. Can’t wait for the same article next year. Did Mr Liarson see his shadow?
Yeap. while the bullpen can be of surprised, you’ve got to have the lead in order to see how effective the bullpen is no? The way i look at it, with basically a not good enough offense, and a so so SP, it’s hard to tell how a bullpen can play into effect. they can also bomb’ out as last year. remember the whole “Had a good day” article about the bullpen sandy revamped? yeah, how that worked out? i still think this team (Now that we lost bourn) will lose from 90-100 games. now it’s as clear as water imo
Well it really doesn’t matter much how good the pen will be this year does it? I mean many say we aren’t competing for anything for one….
and two even if they are good it’s good this year and then we are back to looking for bullpen because all the guys we are pinning our BP hopes on (listed above anyway) are one year deals that expire come October/November.
Back to square one!
All we did is buy some bandages for the bleeding pen and while it may help the BP heal for a year it’s not going to last past the year when the bandages needs to be changed.
The best you can hope for is the TEMPS, will eat up enough innings to not have to overwork the few kids we will be throwing in that pen who are under control for a few more years and will eventually be the key GO TO guys in that pen making the remaining spots a little less important.
But there is no reason to be optimistic about what this year’s pen is going to be like because it won’t be here next year due to our phobia about signing cheap reclamation guys to two year deals instead of the one year “Restore your career on our dime then leave for your fortune” deals we been making.