20
2013
Prospect Pulse: Stock Is Rising For RHP Rafael Montero
An article by 
RAFAEL MONTERO, RHP
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6′
Weight: 170 lb.
Position: Pitcher
Age: 22
ETA: 2015
2013 MMO Top Prospect Ranking: #9
Background:
Here is a brief player profile from the recent 2013 MMO Top 25 Prospect series:
If you go by the numbers, Sterling Award winner Rafael Montero is a guy that you should be taking note of. He entered the Mets system in 2011, and has already seen work at six different levels, culminating in his work in St.Lucie last year. Montero was stopped short last year because he hit his innings limit, but impressed basically everybody with a 2.36 ERA in 122.0 innings over two levels, while posting a 0.943 WHIP.
He has continued to keep his walks down, as he’s done during every stop of his MiLB career so far, posting a 1.6 BB/9 rate compared to a 8.1 K/9. To put it plainly, he walked only 19 while striking out 110, and it’s mainly because of the strength of his secondary offerings. In addition, he only allowed six home runs all season, so there are more than just a few reasons to be excited about him.
Montero has an interesting skill set which is accompanied by a frame that most scouts agree needs to be bulked up a little before guaranteeing any success. His fastball is not dominant by any means, but it is possible to work with it at the MLB level. Although it sits in the 90-92 MPH range, it has great late movement and Montero commands it impressively. I have seen him work a curve and a change into his pitching arsenal at times, but I have to say he also throws a good hard slider that’s not far from being a plus-offering. Montero has three solid pitches to work with – the fastball, slider, and change up. He varies the speed on his change well and the bottom drops out more often than not.
Montero pitched well enough in 2012 to get an invite to spring training, and thus far in camp, he has been nothing short of spectacular. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported in a recent tweet that Montero is ”thrilling Mets people” in camp, and “unreal’ is the word being used in camp when describing this exciting prospect.
Michael Baron of Metsblog was also recently blown away by Montero and noted that the young right-hander had “electrifying stuff.” Here is more of what he had to say about Montero, after watching a recent bullpen session down in Florida:
He worked counts and the pitch situations that come with that, such as coming back with fastballs down 2-0, and using his breaking pitch on the corners when ahead in the count. He didn’t seem to fall behind too much…Montero’s stuff looks electrifying, but he’s still quite raw, which is to be expected at this stage of his development. He throws very hard, and his breaking pitch has very heavy movement down through the strike zone. He is very lanky, kind of like Pedro Martinez when he was younger.
Baron’s report is just as promising as Heyman’s, however I found it to be a tad contradicting. Baron states that Montero worked counts, didn’t fall behind much, and used his breaking pitch on the corners when ahead in the count which hardly sounds like Montero is ”raw.”
I think what Baron was trying to convey was that Montero is inexperienced, since he has only pitched in the lower levels of the system. Someone who is raw generally oozes talent, but hasn’t figured out how to apply that talent in game situations — it seems that from Baron’s description that Montero is still figuring out how to pitch. Being a raw talent and an inexperienced player are two different things.
Analysis:
Based on the video, Montero does have a couple of minor mechanical issues he has to work on, but he does have electric stuff and tons of potential. His fastball tops out at 93mph, and he has a nice, biting slider to go along with his fastball.
He also throws a slower slurve, which is a bendy combination of slider and curveball, but he uses it very rarely. Montero has a lot of promise, but I would like to see him focusing on developing his changeup, and get rid of that slurve he throws. Most early scouting reports had Montero labeled as a bullpen arm, but with continued progress, he could be a very formidable middle of the rotation starter.
Montero still relies on his fastball, so the Mets will start working with Montero to incorporate his secondary pitches more and more as he progresses. In the lower levels of the system, it is easy for pitchers to get by with fastball, fastball, but as he rises through the system, he will need a variety of well developed pitches to get the more advanced hitters out.
Montero should start the season with Double-A Binghamton, and you should definitely keep an eye on him in 2013. Montero is a name that Met fans should get used to hearing.
To read previous editions of this feature, go to our MMO Prospect Pulse Archives.
Follow MMO Minor League Analyst Mitch Petanick on Twitter at @FirstPitchMitch for even more Mets Minor League and prospect coverage.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
40 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Hey Mitch, these Prospect Pulse pieces from you have been incredible, but I’m a little bit concerned. The other ones you did got reactions from the players themselves, plus their parents, plus their college or high school coaches, or even just friends. It also never hurts getting these posts re-tweeeted by the Cyclones GM and the St. Lucie Mets. But I’m a little concerned about this one. I might need someone to translate for me if Rafael or his parents write the site. hey Alex68, can I count on you to translate?
Thanks, Joe. I’m really enjoying doing them and glad everyone likes them.
Joe D, not sure what you want me to translate… Also, don’t forget our buddy MNJ can do the same, and probably a few others here.
Nice job Mitch, but without sounding too critical, you could have done without the quote from Metsblog. What you see there is the same quote give or take a few words that they use for every pitching prospect going back to Eddie Kunz and Brad Holt. I’d rather you just stick to your own analysis unless you are citing an expert, and Mike Baron is not an expert.
Agree on Metsblog. Baron specifically and Metsblog in general love the ¨on the other hand¨ articles, where they´re trying to live on both sides of the fence. I wish they´d just have faith in their own opinions instead of qualifying everything.
This – To both Dave and JM13!
Mitch, sooner or later you’e going to find out that nothing said on Metsblog by Cerrone and his posse is worth repeating here, especially minor league stuff. Trust me on this. Actually, it’s almost time for another MB post about Wilmer Flores. LOL
“Mitch, sooner or later you’e going to find out that nothing said on Metsblog by Cerrone and his posse is worth repeating here, especially minor league stuff.”
None of that slop is worth repeating anywhere, let alone here.
The most unsual aspect about Montero and several other of the promising A-ball arms is their above average control – in spite of having pretty good raw stuff already.
Most of the time, only the finesse guys will have above average control while the power guys may have the higher ceiling but often need to harness their control or command within & around the zone. Matt Harvey & Jeurys Familia being examples for the power guys and Collin McHugh or Dillon Gee being examples for the finesse guys.
Rarely do you find pitchers at such an early stage of their development that already exhibit that sort of control and yet don´t come up short in terms of stuff.
It´s a reason why several of these arms may move up a lot more quickly than you´d generally expect them to.
What I am curious about is as he progresses will the strike out numbers take a nose dive? With his strikeouts coming from movement, pitch selection and possibly deception his K rates might bottom out as he moves up. Hope not.
Just as an example and I hate using Pelfrey but it fits the discussion. Pelf’s K rates in A and AA were either close to or above 10 but then in AAA went down to 6.5 and then 5 in the bigs.
Montero has better command and probably better secondary stuff than Pelfrey already (though not as wicked a fastball as Pelfrey used to have, obviously).
Pelfrey is so hard to judge because they rushed him so quickly. In A+ he was dominant for his 5 starts. His walk rate ballooned up in AA and AAA.
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6′
Weight: 170 lb.
Position: Second Base???????????
Oops lol…thanks for pointing that out
Nah, I don’t think he converted
I usually copy and paste that section from previous posts and type over the new info. That second base error was from the last PP on TJ Rivera…can’t believe that snuck past me and Joe D lol
Hey don’t go blaming me. As an analyst I thought you simply knew something about Montero that I didn’t Who was I to argue.
Well you could analyze Luis Cessa. He’s a converted 2nd baseman now pitcher.
You know I really miss the minor league chats me, you and a lot of other people had about the minors in the shoutbox. This draft is going to really suck without that shoutbox. Anyway, yes, good catch on Cessa.
Yeah so do I Maniac. I heard there was still a shoutbox but when I googled it all that came up was a thread with a chat live with Sandy session back on Feb 6th. Hopefully Joe D will put it back up for the season. I’m looking forward to watching kids like Flores and d’Arnaud hit in that Vegas banbox. If Flores can play a passable 2nd and Td’A is the real deal we’ll have a sick offensive infield.
Mitch, don’t even sweat it. I won’t start worrying until you start pulling a Cerrone by not proofreading your stuff over & over and completely botching player names (I.E. Matt Wheeler)
On a side note, anyone else thought it was a joke Montero didn’t crack Baseball America’s top 100 list?
Sometimes a one word analysis says it all.
>>AdamRubinESPN Adam Rubin
Ike Davis as Zack Wheeler delivers pitch to John Buck: “Whoooo!”
Saw a comment from DWright in a Jon Heyman article yesterday to watching Montero pitch that was similar. Heyman said he’s ‘wowing’ in ST camp so far.
Everyone should be drooling at the notion that Wheeler will be joining the Mets very soon…the movement on his fastball is so ridiculous that it looks like a screwball and his curve is equally ridiculous. He gets himself into trouble walking guys but if he can get that under control he will be lights out and a lot of fun to watch.
Nice to see these reports. It is no secret the Mets have a lot of arms in their system which bodes well for the future. The next phase is to watch and see which ones make the jump to higher levels. Success in A ball and AAA are two different things. But I like the chances when you are talking about 6 or 7 good arms all moving through the system. Eventually the crowd will thin out and they will be left with some quality pitchers.
Harvey
Wheeler
Familia
Mejia
Mazzoni
Leathersich
Montero
Fulmer
Syndergaard
Tapia
Mateo
Not a bad collection for the future.
And Niese and Gee aren’t old me either.
Don’t sell yourself short real. You ain’t no spring chicken anymore.
Lol, yeah my playin days are over. Unless RA can teach me a trick or twelve.
N matz has sick stuff. Hopefully this time round his shoulder holds up. Theres not many people on that list that hav as electric stuff as he does when healthy. He was hitting 98 on the gun regularly with stupid movement. If he has a healthy year he will breeze thru A n AA. I have alot of faith in him bouncing back n the soreness he was feeling last year was normal.
not a shoulder issue. He had a bad elbow (TJ) and just took a while to get fully rehabbed.
I agree though with his stuff, he could move up the ladder pretty quickly.
Also like on younger side
Hansel Robles
Logan Verritt
N Chris Flexen of the 3 like flex the best he’s only 18 but in terms of size stuff n development reminds me of syndergaard.
N reliever Mathew koch on the rise
Is this the scouting report for Meija? May be we should make him our 7th inning pitcher or this year?
Montero strikes me as a guy who will always have amazing control.
BTW, the idea of needing to bulk up might be generally true but isn´t universal. Montero is basically the same height and weight as Pedro Martinez, and he did OK as a SP in the majors.
I agree Dave. The guy’s legs are built and that’s really what you want to see from pitchers. Not all pitchers respond well to bulking up in the upper body….if his lower half is built up then he will be fine.
The stock that is rising is these Prospect Pulse series that Mitch has been doing.
Thanks, MNJ. Really means a lot to me that you said that.
This is why you don’t write off a season before it starts. Stuff happens.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gd6n3YdfyY&feature=youtu.be
Another inch or two in a different spot and Stanton’s year, maybe more, is over.
What Michael Baron is trying to say, from what I can gather, is that he’s an idiot.