2
2013
Prospect Pulse: Analyzing Mets Shortstop Prospect Philip Evans
An article by 
Player Name: Philip Evans
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5’10″ Weight: 185 lb.
Position: Shortstop
Age: 20 (turns 21 in September)
MMO Top Prospect Ranking: 14
ETA: 2015
Background:
Here’s what MMO had to say about Evans in the recent top 25 prospect feature:
The 2011 15th round pick who received a significant over-slot $660K bonus has been good, but not what has been expected overall. Evans has exclusively played shortstop though he profiles more as a second baseman due to his stocky build. The 2012 season saw Evans get his first full-season of short-season at-bats. The biggest downside in his numbers were the lack of more power, hitting .252 but only slugging .337. While the bat didn’t regress, the progression that should have occurred hasn’t. Evans is still young so the jury isn’t out on him yet.
Evans projects as a 10-15 HR player with a solid batting average and a decent glove as well. Hopefully the 2013 season will see Evans get his first real taste of full-season ball in Savannah and that he will continue to progress with his bat, while hopefully getting some reps at second now that the system is well stocked at short. Evans still has the potential to grow as a hitter, but needs to stop pulling the ball so much and start spraying the ball to all fields. He must also become more consistent defensively where he has a knack to make some flashy plays, but sometimes flubs a routine grounder. The Mets have a lot invested in him so he’ll get every chance to succeed.
Analysis:
I really like Evans’ approach at the plate. No, wait. Let me rephrase that. I love Evans’ approach at the plate.
His swing is mechanically sound—he keeps his hands and weight back, and has a very pretty, short and compact swing. By looking at his swing I would say he has excellent gap to gap power, and agree that he would have the ability to hit 10-15 home runs once he gets to the higher levels in the system.
With that short, quick swing like Evans has, it will be very difficult for any pitcher to sneak a fastball by him. I was also impressed with his patience at the plate. I have read some scouting reports on Evans which say that he can get caught out on his front foot on some off speed pitches, and that he has to work on his pitch recognition. By looking at his swing, and the way he keeps his weight back, it’s hard for me to see this being a problem in the future. The pitch recognition will become easier as he works his way through the system. You have to remember that when players are drafted out of high school, the majority of them haven’t gone up against quality off-speed pitches until they get to this level. There will be an adjustment period. Evans getting caught on his front foot could also be a case where he got caught guessing wrong at the plate (yes, hitters sometimes guess). Either way, he should be able to work it out.
Another thing that impressed me from the video above was what he did with an outside pitch (about 40 seconds in). He takes an outside pitch and laces a line-drive into right field. This is very promising and shows that he uses the entire field when hitting.
Evans had what many would consider a down year with Brooklyn last year. He hit .252 and added five home runs and 28 RBI. When looking at his splits, he did considerably better against left-handed pitching. This shouldn’t be too alarming at this level of his development. As I stated earlier, he was drafted out of high school, so he probably didn’t go up against pitchers on a day in and day out basis that had quality off-speed stuff. His first real taste came in 2012 in the NY-Penn League, where he was facing guys that were primarily drafted out of college. These guys all have arsenals of developed off-speed pitches. It’s easier to recognize off-speed pitches for right-handed batters coming from left-handed pitchers. That could explain the discrepancy in his righty/leftie splits.
SNY recently took a look at Evans last June on their Mets Minor League Report. Here is what Mets coaches and Toby Hyde said about him:
From what I have seen defensively from Evans, he looks like he could stick at shortstop. I hate when analysts start putting labels on players regarding not having the range or arm to play a particular position. Let the kid develop and play ball, and let the Mets determine where he ends up on the field. If the Mets were that concerned with his ability to play shortstop, they would have started transitioning him already. Evans will be a shortstop until he shows them that he can no longer play that position at higher levels. Until that happens, he’s a shortstop—a pretty good one for that matter.
2013 should be a season where we see Evans take a leap forward offensively. The tools are there, and he has a season of seeing off-speed pitches under his belt now. There is no reason why we shouldn’t see this kid turn the corner this season. Not only will he turn the corner, but he will be listed as one of the Mets’ top ten prospects headed into the 2014 season.
Phil Evans strikes a pose for MMO last season.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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‘Not only will he turn the corner, but he will be listed as one of the Mets’ top ten prospects headed into the 2014 season.’
Wow, encouraging analysis, to say the least. It would be good to see if he can stick at SS – since so many start out there but eventually wind up being moved to another position.
Good stuff.
This
Damn, this was a great analysis. I am very high on Evans too, but I question how the Mets are forcing him into a philosophy that took away the aggressiveness he had in school when scouts drooled over him. I hope he can still be the power infielder he was projected to be before the Mets “one size fits all” philosophy took hold of him.
Nice post. I see him as the second baseman of the future and he reminds me of a cross between Dan Uggla and Chase Utley offensively in their primes. That’s not a bad thing at all.
From the videos, physical stature and written player evaluations and profile he seems to resemble Craig biggio. Wouldn’t that be nice……. we’ll see
Wasadeyo
From your mouth to God’s ears!!! I was very curious as to why a 15th rounder got such a bonus. Hope he pans out.
The crazy part about all this…is that Ruben Tejada is only a year or 2 older than Evans
the bonus paid to Evans could’ve gotten 6 SS from the international market
this is why IMO the 1st round draft pick money being lost is a wash. You can just reallocate those funds to Latin America. You can find a Neemo or a Cecchini for alot cheaper !
Wish they would have edited that first video down to just when he swung. It would only be about 25 seconds long.
Uh oh! Here comes the flood of “Another reason Sandy sucks is he forces the entire team to take to many pitches” diatribes.
He got the bonus because he was looked at as a late first round/ second round talent that said he was going to college. Teams didn’t want to draft him and not have him sign. So the Mets rightfully picked him late, hoping he’d sign and they have him the cash that he would have had if drafted where his ability suggested.
I hope your right. My thinking was with him not progressing last year it’s considered a regression. When we drafted him I was super high on him & didnt know why he went so late. I def thought he’d be gone by the end of the second round for sure. Last year some of that shine came off for me. It’s encouraging reading a positive perspective on him. Last year I thought him & muno were right outside out the top 10. Now I see so many guys on the move and have them n like 6 other guys around 20. In my mind Tovar slightly moved ahead of them. We have nice middle field depth thats y i ddnt understand Cacchini. If he was the best player okay but it was not close in my mind. We should have selected Courtney Hawkins. With them taking Cacchini was another sign to me there not sold on these guy’s. However, it should just tell me they are cheam. Good article & I hope ur cluser to his value then I am.
I heard Danny Muno is supposed to be the goods
Well coming off a 50 game suspension for PEDs, he will have to prove himself this season.
Great stuff Mitch! Like Met Maniac I’m extremely high on Phil Evans. I never thought he’d still be on the board after the 8th-9th round when the Mets where many mock drafts had him going and they had him going to the Mets which tells me they were all over this kid in High School. He was considered a supplemental round to 2nd round pick which is why he got such a big signing bonus as a 15th rounder. I see him eventually as a good two way 2nd baseman if he developes properly. I’m not the least bit concerned with his down year last year.
Thanks for the in-depth writeup. Very good job.
Evans´ numbers – similar to those of Brandon Nimmo – look rather ordinary at first glance.
Once you consider their rather young age for the NYPL, a league that generally features many college picks in their early 20s, and how that league generally surpresses offense in general, they look a lot better. And since Savannah also happens to be a rather hitter-unfriendly environment they´re not too likely to improve significantly in 2013.
In case the Las Vegas AAA affiliate remains around longer than expected, Mets´ fans will need to take a bunch of minor league numbers being aware of circumstances:
Brooklyn & Savannah surpress offense, most of all power while helping pitching. The lofty numbers put up by the Brooklyn staff in 2012 were great, especially because of those pitchers mostly had the raw stuff to back them up for a change. However, Brad Holt also had lofty numbers at that level and looked like a future frontline SP there while Ike Davis looked like a wasted pick in the same season after 0 HR in 200+ AB. While this has been common knowledge for a long time, it´s still difficult to forget about the numbers. Which one mostly should, especially at the lower levels.
Las Vegas (and the entire PCL) will elevate offense and hurt pitching. Just because someone puts up a .950+ OPS at that level won´t mean that he´ll even reach a .750+ OPS in the majors. Likewise a 5.00+ ERA in Vegas doesn´t mean the pitcher will be equipped to win. It may be an indication, but these totals are quite misleading.
As for Ruben Tejada, yes, he´s quite young and already established in the majors. However, he should have spent most / if not all of 2010 at AAA or AA instead of being force-fed to the majors at age 20 that season. Of course, players that show such an advanced approach at such a young age are quite rare. So, I´m not sure you can just give six SS from Latin America the money it costs you to sign one Phil Evans or even one Gavin Cecchini and expect to get at least a couple of Tejadas out of that.
Of course, both Evans & Cecchini both have considerable more upside than Tejada, especially in terms of potential power. Unlike Tejada they probably won´t make their major league debut at age 20 but instead figure to get at least another two more full seasons in the minors and probably target mid/late 2015 or even early 2016 for their major league arrival if all goes well. Which may well co-incide with the time when Tejada becomes rather expensive via arbitration.
Also have high hopes for Wilfredo Tovar who seems like the best defensive infielder in the entire organization for now and probably will make his MLB debut at some point in 2013. The question is, can he hit enough to be a starting SS at least in the Brandon Crawford mold ?
Evans is going to tear it up this year,he is leaner,stronger and much faster after a strong off season work out routine and he is already in St Lucie working out.