1
2013
MMO Featured Post: The Myth Of A Bountiful Inheritance
An article by André Dobiey
While I´m quite tired of the “Omar vs. Sandy” debate, a recent post about the “strong farm system” Omar Minaya supposedly left behind in late 2010, got me thinking and looking.
To summarize, as of today, it doesn´t look as if the farm system left behind was all that good. And one big reason for the Mets´ recent and even current struggles is directly related to the lack of quality (not quantity of ) higher end homegrown talent that Minaya left behind for his successor. Don´t get me wrong, the system wasn´t barren either as some members of the media suggested back then. But if you take a closer look, it was mediocre at best – especially if you´re looking for potential short- and midterm help for the major league roster. And the effects are lasting.
Now, a few acknowledgements before I get into details:
- I very much respect Omar Minaya, one of the nicest persons you´ll find in all of Baseball.
- He did a good job, building what he was asked to do initially, i.e. a “quick fix winner” shortly after he took over. He had a “ Midas” touch for pretty much everything he did in the 2005/2006 off-season.
- Minaya inherited a great inexpensive duo of budding young stars in Wright & Reyes and a few solid MLB veterans (Floyd, Cameron, Benson, Glavine, Trachsel and what was left of Leiter) but little else and especially a terrible and dysfunctional farm system thanks to bad drafts in 2004 and 2003, giving away Scott Kazmir and an otherwise poor 2002 draft too and no International talent beyond Carlos Gomez.
- While Minaya wasn´t exactly prudent in terms of handing out longterm contracts to expensive veterans, especially backloaded deals that were bound to turn into ugly gorillas by the end, even with good luck, he couldn´t foresee Bernie Madoff being a crook and the cash pipeline drying up. Still, while it wasn´t his fault that the payroll got out of control and the Mets fielded a couple of very expensive .500ish type teams (that finished below .500 due to injuries), he does deserve some of the blame for that.
- His longterm legacy in the Mets´ history books may be a building a functional Latin American talent procurement and development pipeline that should help the Mets longterm – even if the effects were quite small in late 2010 when he departed and may not be in full work until maybe 2015 or so. And it goes beyond signing promising young talents such as Domingo Tapia, Hansel Robles, Vicente Lupo or Wilfredo Tovar that were still signed under Minaya – but also for talent technically signed during the Alderson tenure – but on the groundwork that Omar Minaya laid there.
That said, the 2005 through 2010 draft record, i.e. the 6 drafts Minaya & his staff ran – for now – is rather pedestrian. Now, if Matt Harvey turns into the NL version of Justin Verlander or Jon Niese goes on to become the NL version of Jon Lester, then this will look a lot better a few years from now. However, if you want to know a key reason why the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are favored to win in 2013 and not the New York Mets, finances aside, you can look at the production of their 2005 through 2010 drafts and compare it to the Mets.
While “wins above replacement level” (WAR) is certainly far from perfect, it provides a useful & neutral tool to assess the quality of player procurement.
I looked at the drafts by the Mets, Nats and Braves from 2005 through 2010 and added up the “WAR” totals produced by those classes through the 2012 season. At least the classes of 2005 through 2008 can fully be assessed today. It´s still a bit early for a verdict on the classes of 2009 and 2010, though first results are already quite useful.
So, there you go, combined “WAR” totals of these 6 classes as of today:
- Nationals 74.8 WAR
- Braves 55.6 WAR
- Mets 23.5 WAR
See a trend ?
The Mets had their most productive “class” in 2006 for now with a combined WAR (including some negative WAR) of 11.1, mostly thanks to underrated Daniel Murphy (6.7) and Joe Smith (5.0). The class of 2005 comes in 2nd for now at 6.9 with Pelfrey (4.5) and Niese (3.8 – but improving fast) leading the way, with negative WAR backup C Drew Butera (traded for Luis Castillo) hurting the overall total a bit. 2007 has been a disaster for now at 0.6 combined – mainly thanks to Dillon Gee at 1.9 but otherwise mostly “negative” WARs from Lucas Duda or even Eddie Kunz.
2008 has Ike Davis at 5.0, some hope for Kirk Nieuwenhuis at a neutral 0.0 but deductions for Schwinden, Satin and for now McHugh who have all provided negative value for a final total of merely 3.1 at this point.
The 2009 class is a complete bust for now, with not a single major leaguer graduated and no prospects anywhere close to the majors or likely to even get there. Matt Harvey and his 1.9 WAR for starters may end up being the best pick in the entire Minaya draft era and is the leader of the still very fresh class of 2010. Deducting slight negative value for Josh Edgin gets us to 1.8 for that year as of now – hopefully rising very soon.
Overall, as of now, not a single “difference maker” was procured in those 6 drafts. Matt Harvey hopefully will change that. Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee and Daniel Murphy should end up with at least solid lengthy major league careers when the book is closed. Still, it´s tough building a legit contender through one potential stud pitcher (who had yet to throw his first pro pitch at the time Minaya left) and a handful of solid complementary players. And there´s not too much hope for future breakouts left in these college-heavy Mets classes either. Sure, Jacob deGrom, Matt Den Dekker or Cory Vaughn could still become solid major leaguers along with Edgin from the 2010 class. Nieuwenhuis & Duda may seize their chance in 2013 and also emerge as longterm complementary pieces instead of the merely “replacement level” fillers they have been for now. But this certainly is not what you´d call a “good farm system” in retrospect – regardless of 2010 rookie status – or a “strong nucleus of young talent” to inherit along with a bloated payroll.
And while I mentioned that I like the International pipeline installed by Minaya going forward , fact is, as of today, Ruben Tejada is the lone International signee of the Minaya era that has had any sort of impact at the major league level (career WAR of 3.3). Maybe Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Jordany Valdespin and Wilmer Flores will prove Jim Callis & friends wrong and eventually make an impact. But do you see any building blocks there, realistically ?
Meanwhile, while the Nats lucked into high end # 1 overall picks, Stephen Strasburg & Bryce Harper, those two – for now – only make up 10.7 WAR of the lofty 74.8 total. Other key contributors are Ryan Zimmerman (28.7 !) , Jordan Zimmerman (8.6), Danny Espinosa (5.5), Ross Detwiler (2.1), Drew Storen (2.8), John Lannan (6.3) or a couple of youngsters that were traded for Gio Gonzalez like Tommy Milone (2.5) or Derek Norris (0.6).
The Braves – in spite of winning more games than the Mets over this period – have procured studs like Jason Heyward (14.3), Yunel Escobar (18.5 quite a player until he struggled), Craig Kimbrel (6.2), Kris Medlen (6.2), Tommy Hanson (4.7), Freddie Freeman (3.3), Andrelton Simmons (2.8) and Mike Minor (- 0.1 but very promising), most of which figure to generate a lot of future value too.
Oh, and by the way, none of the three teams has graduated any players from the classes of 2011 or 2012 to the majors yet. The Nats did use 2011 pick RH Alex Meyer to land OF Denard Span this winter.
To summarize, while the Mets currently have a 40-man roster mostly made up of players that were procured during the Omar Minaya era, most of these players – unfortunately – aren´t very good. Combine it with a shoe-string budget and you are pretty likely to end up with a pretty mediocre team.
Which doesn´t mean that Sandy Alderson hasn´t made his share of mistakes already – but may explain why this is a much broader procedure than it may seem. Regardless of who the GM is today or going forward.
About the Author: André Dobiey
I'm a lawyer who hails from and lives in Germany, and have been an avid Mets fan since 1984. I enjoyed rooting for Doc Gooden & David Cone back then. Spent a long time in German Baseball as a board member for the Bonn Capitals (German 1st League team) from 1994 through 2006 and can claim that I've watched Mets farm hand C Kai Gronauer and pretty much every other German born prospect (like Max Kepler or Donald Lutz) in live action far before they became prospects. I follow and watch the Mets and other MLB games via internet TV. Also a big soccer fan (like most Germans).
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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Interesting read. I certainly think we’ve been surprised a bit by the contributions of Murph, Gee, etc, but certainly have not had a game changer in a while, though I suspect Harvey will grab that title, smack it around a little bit and then kick it to the curb, all the while muttering “I don’t need no stinking title to know I am the MAN!”
Here’s to hoping the International signings start panning out very soon.
One of the best posts I’ve read on the matter in a very long time. If only “The Others” understood and saw it this way.
“Mets´ recent and even current struggles is directly related to the lack of quality (not quantity of ) higher end homegrown talent that Minaya left behind for his predecessor.”
How is that even possible?
Oops, successor ? Non native speaker, damnit…
Doobs,
Just busting chops! I’m shocked that the Omar lovers/Sandy haters didn’t come out and claim he actually could do that by bending the space/time continuum. Add that to the reasons he’s better than Sandy!
The previous GM came to work in Police Box.
Wow!!!
That was the best analysis of the minaya drafting record I have seen. And scouting was supposed to be his strength. Eddie Kunz? Combined with the horrible free agent contracts no wonder the mets became a joke and are slowly gaining back some respect. Omar was a nice guy? Leo Durocher said it best – nice guys finish last.
By the way I am very impressed that a German is such a knowledgeable baseball fan.
welcome to the site.
Scouting was and will always be Omars strength. The problem is when a guy like that is elevated to the GM he’s no longer scouting so his scouting expertise is no longer put to use. Plus except for about 4 different scouts the Met scouting staff was pretty much the same as the scouting staff under Steve Phillips.
The Nats numbers are not only skewed by Strasburg and harper who you only get by finishing dead last in baseball (if thats what you mean by draft skills Ray sadecki) but Ryan Zimmerman who contributes 28 plus WAR. He was the fourth pick in 2005. The Mets could never have got him because they drafted behind them. That takes the Nats down into the low 30′s. Also Escobar skews the Braves and takes them into the thirties. I wouldnt call him a good draft pick.
All in all this proves Atlanta has always been a good organization although their post season success the last 9 years has been dismal and that if you are really bad for a rally long time like the Nats you get lucky.
What is with the disclaimers and exemptions? Throw out this person and that person. The study was of teams drafts and the poster even discounted the 2 “once in a lifetime” picks by the Nats somewhat.
You point to Zimmerman and the fact the Mets couldnt of had him. Okay. What about the ones they could have had. McCutchen, Bruce, Ellsbury, and Garza were taken in the 1st round of that draft after the Mets selected Pelfrey. Sure it is easy to say in hindsight but the point of the article is the Mets did not do a great job acquiring high end talent through the draft. And the Nats also could have selected bombs with the 4th pick also (the Rays bombed on the #8 pick in that draft).
Like i said when your really bad for a long time you get good draft picks. If that is our gameplan we are on the right path. Same with the Rays. It s interesting they have now drafted later on, there are not as many David prices to go with their Delmon Young mistakes et al.
Let me ask you a question – did i read it wrong or was nimmo not in the top 100 today? thought so – So that draft by your standard is a total bust given the guy picked right behind him is in at number 7
Were the Braves bad for a really long time in the last 15 years? No yet somehow they seemed to lap the Mets when it comes to draft success.
Ah yes the Nimmo argument. Notice how the poster left out even the 2010 draft because many of them are still working their way up through the system. But everyone points to Nimmo. Well, guess what, he has one season of professional baseball. Besides, the article does not deal with prospects but compares the players over the period of time who contributed at the major league level. It is wonderful to have highly touted prospects but if they do not contribute eventually, they are worthless (unless traded). So your stellar #7, unless he miraculously opens up at AAA, is nothing more than potential, the same as all the Met prospects A ball and below.
So stop with the you have to be bad for a long time to succeed in the draft. The Mets have been crappy for many stretches throughout their history. Hell, look at their number 1 picks overall. Only one, Strawberry was any good. The others, Steven Chilcott, Tim Foli, Shawn Abner, and Paul Wilson barely made a dent in the majors (if they got there at all). The idea is to focus on the totality of the entire draft which this article did after a reasonable amount of time passed whereby everyone had ample time to make it to the majors. But you prefer to cherry pick one player over another who both are 3-4 years away from the majors.
Stellar number 7 will start in AA this year and may pitch in the majors as well. Certainly will be there in 2014. I assumr if we see Nimmo, it wont be until 2016
A very good article and terrific research. While many will argue the merits of WAR (and perhaps rightly so), I think it does exemplify the problem within the Mets organization. It would be interesting to take this same analysis and stretch it back for both the Mets and Braves back to 1991 or so. My inclination is that you would find similar results.
The bottom line is the Mets do have some nice complimentary pieces. Murphy, Tejada, and some of the others either are or can be fine ballplayers. And, we must remember the book on Omar will not be complete for a while. Ike and Harvey could well turn out to be studs which would change those numbers drastically. Edgin is another who I believe potentially could be a terrific closer for the Mets. Of course, some of the international guys are 1-3 years away and can change the picture completely.
I guess the best way to sum it up is the word mediocre. That is what the Mets farm system has been for a long time. It seems to be changing which is the first step. Now, in the next couple of years, that needs to translate into major league talent. If not, then the naysayers who predict 2020 before contention might be right.
Yes it is an excellent article. Thanks for the insight.
Good breakdown on outlining some very good reasons why we’re in the position we’ve been in the past few years – aside from the Madoff debacle.
The WAR breakdown is especially interesting. Pretty start numbers as to why the Nats and Braves are predicted to be on top this season.
“Meanwhile, while the Nats lucked into high end # 1 overall picks”
Spelling check….
they SUCKED into…..
Comparing the Mets picks with the Nats is kind of like comparing a 5 year old in a fight with Muhamad Ali!
Nats had 7 Top 10 picks, 3 Top 5 and two 1st Overall picks to get what they did…
Mets had 2 Top 10 Picks and not one a top 5
And those pick positions lasted for the entire drafts not just the first round.
Name the last time the Nats or braves started an entire TEAM of homegrowns….
Mets did just last year if I’m not mistaken….
Swept under the rug….
Metsie, stop being such a pest and pointing out how the two situations couldn’t have been more extremely different. Also lets not forget the Nats paid record bonuses and Minaya couldn’t go over slot. Alderson could and did and look at the what he dumped in the Mets impound – an Edsel and a Yugo.
“hey are the type to buy a mansion and get the cheapest home insurance….
so yeah…it looks good from the outside…but the second anything happens…it becomes a house on stilts…”
very applicable here…
to me getting neemo was about hushing critics more than anything else…
it was:
See we arent going to just get a safe college pick like we always do !!!
http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2011-mlb-draft-signings-and-bonuses/
the wilpons have always been adverse to criticism, Sandy is just a different proxy/pinata we get to beat up on…
What I really don’t get is how somene can say we are doing the right thing compared to Omar when Omar got us into a Playoffs, one curveball away from the WS, had a team who for THREE YEARS was called the TEAM TO BEAT at this point of every offseason….Featured 3 All Stars from the Mets that hasn’t happend since god know when….
and we currently have a GM who has made a team team that is closer to the cellar than the div title, can’t possibly be competitive till sometime after 2014 (not my eval the folks who LIKE the plan say that) and has sat on his hands for an Offseason…
yet people will go to such lengths to make the guy who got us those winning teams as TERRIBLE and did a BAD job while the guy who has us playing for the Cellar is doing a GREAT ONE!
He’s got the right plan….
It defies all friggin Logic!
The situation when Omar stepped in on GM is so completely and totally different to the situation when Sandy stepped in. It’s completely unfair to compare the two. The only thing you can really compare is where the team ultimately ended up under their reigns. We saw where Omar took us. We haven’t yet seen where Sandy will take us. Once we do, than we can fairly compare the two.
Well Maniac if they want to follow the Nats plan they sure have the right FO to get what they need….
Cause if we trade our best players away AGAIN next year (the way we have the last two) it won’t be long till WE SUCKED our way to a bunch of top 10 Picks the next decade as well….
As for the Braves say what you want about thier draft abilities but if it is so damn important for winning championships then why the hell haven’t they won a Division in the last 8 years? They made two playoffs in that time sure….
People point to thier spending and success despite not doing it….
I guess it’s success in the same way Oakland has been a successful franchise I suppose….At least Atlanta DID win a WS….Way back in 1995!
Maybe if they spent a little money (as they seem to have this year) they wouldn’t always have to get in via the Wildcard and maybe would have won another WS or two…
The Braves have STAGNATED thier Spending and as a result STAGNATED thier team…While the rest of the NL East teams jump up and down around the statue to take the Division.
But they are great at Drafting….Guess it takes a lot MORE than just kids doesn’t it?
Just get to the playoffs. Anything can happen in a short series. I don’t begrudge the Braves anything. I’d swap the last 20 years with them in a NY minute.
I’m certainly not begrdging the Braves from anything Frankie….
No one is denying they are a well built team….
But the ENTIRE premise that is being used to follow them is said to have a long term competitive and winning ballclub….
When you look at the Braves model they aspire to well sure they win games….But nothing that is any better than any team we have had since 1987 and on….
Get to the playoffs and anything can happen thats very true….
In the Braves case it RARELY HAPPENED!
Is that the model we should be following?
Or Maybe we should look for a better ROLE MODEL that has not only made as many playoffs as the Braves had and then WON some WS’ as well?
How many teams can possibly meet your criteria for being a great model? Just rack up winning seasons and get to the post season. After that there are no role models it’s all a crap shoot. Especially now with a one game playoff. You could say the Giants, but what if we were having this conversation in 2010?
One I know of for sure…You know how they were able to do that?
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION….
Oddly enough we play in the same location as they do….
Metsie,
How dare you use sound logic and Facts to prove a point when you can use ridiculously Flawed and useless stats like “WAR” to confuse matters?
As Edwin Starr would say…..
“WAR, [HUH!, good god yall] what is it good for? Absolutely nothin’!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpWmlRNfLck
A 5 year old what? What if it’s a 5 year old rampaging silverback gorilla?
so let me get this straight…
with an ownership that has been historically known to not place a value on minor league systems…and has traditionally since 1988 been in the bottom 3rd in terms of investing in their system..
Sandy inherited these players in their PRE-ARB years..
1 – Ike – 23
2 – Duda – 24
3 – Murphy – 25
4 – Tejada – 19
along with Matt Harvey and a very talented Mejia…
Omar had to build a quick-fix winner…( which rarely ever works ) + build for the future at the same time…
u can do one or the other but rarely both…
but if u are going to do the first one…you go ALL OUT….you dont start penny pinching when it comes to getting Manny Ramirez ( as the wilpons did in 06 ) or get scared to trade milledge for zito at the 06 off-season…
the problem with the wilpons is that they have ALWAYS been known to half-ass everything…
they are the type to buy a mansion and get the cheapest home insurance….
so yeah…it looks good from the outside…but the second anything happens…it becomes a house on stilts…
Yup, Sandy Alderson inherited a handful of solid young complementary players in Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell and Ruben Tejada. With the first two having the potential to become borderline core pieces eventually if all goes well. Plus a young Matt Harvey prior to his first professional pitch. And the two young arms of Mejia and Familia that are about to reach the majors in 2013 and a group of promising prospects from Latin America who will spend most of 2013 at the A-ball level and could help by 2015 or 2016.
Plus a bunch of – for now – fringe major leaguers such as Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordany Valdespin, Josh Thole or Chris Schwinden who did help field a few “all homegrown” starting lineups last season and may yet go on and have a decent major league careers but for now have pretty much performed at or below replacement level (i.e. generic Quadruple A).
I´m not sure that such a “wealth” of talent is sufficient to field a legit structural contender – considering that payroll obligations inherited for 2011 were already at over 130 million $ in guaranteed contracts and another 150+ million in guaranteed contracts for 2012 and 2013.
Again, I know WAR isn´t the ultimate number for success. But still, it´s a way to – objectively – assess the success a team has had in terms of player development over an extended period of time. And the Mets of 2005 through 2010 weren´t very successful – even if there´s hope that Harvey, Ike and Niese will still salvage those drafts eventually.
By the way, the WAR totals of the 2005 through 2010 drafts of the other 2012 NL playoff teams all exceed the Mets total by quite a bit as well:
SF Giants: 46 WAR in the 2005 through 2010 drafts
CIN Reds: 38 WAR in those six drafts
STL Cards: 30 WAR in those six drafts
And if you want to know how the Phillies dominated the NL East from 2007 through 2011, take a look at their draft record a few years earlier from 1999 through 2004 which produced a whopping 176.7 WAR, led by Hamels, Bourn, Utley, Howard, Floyd, Myers and others that helped build those Philly teams. From 2005 through 2010, their combined WAR is 0.2. That dynasty is about to end.
Heck, even the Yankees had a brief stretch in the early 2000s where they added several valuable pieces such as Gardner, Jackson, Hughes or Kennedy. From 2003 through 2006, they produced a 76.6 WAR in the draft. Since 2007, they´ve produced a combined 0.8 total….
You compare the Met’s drafts to the Braves and Phillies, but you don’t compare them to other teams like the Phillies, Tigers or Indians for example. To get a fair review of the Mets draft, you have to compare them to all 30 teams instead of only two.
Also BIG problem with using WAR here is that an average player like Yunel Escobar can have a significantly higher WAR, than, let’s say Matt Harvey, simply because he has played more games. Would anyone here right now rather have Escobar over Harvey? I don’t think so.
I also would like to expand on the point about the Nats having top picks. It isn’t just Strasbug and Harper, it’s also because of top ten picks like Zimmerman, Storen and Detwiler. They are loaded with top ten talent. Where they have been picking has had a huge impact on their drafts.
Correction:
“You compare the Met’s drafts to the Braves and Nationals, but you don’t compare them to other teams like the Phillies, Tigers or Indians for example.” *
It’s actually even worsthan just that Vinny….
They are comparing the FARM RANKING that is built on the cost of 4 or 5 All Stars to teams who merely drafted thiers at little to no cost at all…..
The Braves and the Nats didn’t have to trade all stars to get the top rnaked players in thier farm….
ALL of our top guys save Flores came at the cost of a MLB player one Cy Young and one guy who if he keeps having seasons like he did last year will probably go to the Hall!
That is provided he doesn’t have pimples on his back.
Vinny – Comparing drafts is really a tough job and a tough sell because honestly, every team has a different philosophy. This isn’t the NFL where you take a star QB early and he either makes it right away or he doesn’t. The same with the NBA, most of the kids drafted either make an impact soon or they fade away.
For example, Matt Harvey was a good pick by the Mets. Nobody can or should deny that. But if his arm pulls a Dave Dravecky (knock on wood it doesn’t) tomorrow then we’ll look back 10 years from now and say that pick was a bust.
If you were going to compare draft classes, I’d only compare them to the teams that surround them. I’d wanna know who did the Mets just miss out on and who did the teams following them snatch up right after they picked.
Comparing the Mets 2006 to the Rays 2006 when they picked Longoria 3rd, doesn’t really make a ton of sense right?
So if you wanted to focus on Minaya’s tenure as GM only (though he isn’t the one making picks but lets just forget that)
And you need to decide which players you want to put on the list. For example in 2005 the Mets drafted catcher Luis Martinez, I don’t really think he adds or takes away from anything so I ignore him. You have to also consider players who do not sign. For example, do you give the Rays credit in 2005 for drafting Ike Davis in the 8th round when he went in the 1st round 3 years later?
Then you need to decide do you value quantity of quality?
2005:
Mets: Thole, Parnell, Pelfrey, Niese, Beato, Hefner
Rox: Tulo
Rays: Ike, Tommy Hunter, Hellickson, Wade Miley
Tigers: Maybin, Joyce, Avila, Casper Wells, Badenhop
Pirates: McCutch, Lillibridge
Opinion: This is where quality/quantity comes in. Would you rather have a superstar like McCutch/Tulo or the Mets picks? I don’t think it’s an easy answer.
2006
Mets: Murphy, Joe Smith
Brewers: None
Padres: Freese, Latos, LeBlanc
Marlins: Coghlan
Twins:Valencia
2007:
Mets: Duda, Gee
A’s: Schlereth, Cowgill?
Tigers: Porcello
Twins: Revere
Yanks: Storen, Thames
2008
Mets: Ike, Kirk
Mariners: None
Tigers: Avila, Dirks
Padres: Kipnis, Forsythe
Phillies: Worley
2009:
Mets: None
Twins: None
White Sox: None
Yanks: None
Brewers: None
- Ugly draft or young draft? We may need to wait maybe a little while longer but bleh
2010:
Mets: Harvey, maybe Edgin?
Indians: Maybe Drew Pomeranz?
DBacks: Nay
Astros: None (Delino DeSheilds Jr could be fun haha)
Padres: None
I wouldn’t really look at other teams outside of these. I think you do need to consider draft strategy, minor league development, budget of draft picks versus focus on IFA etc.
A lot of things go into the evaluation of a draft class. It cannot be black & white
I think IFA’s should be included as well. Why only draftpicks. Prospect trades too.
Fonz – It depends on what you’re trying to do. I’m responding to Vinny saying above that you need to compare the Mets draft to 30 teams. I don’t think that’s true and frankly it’s a waste of time because it’s not apples to apples. The truth is, there is no real way to do an apples to apples for each draft because there are so many factors – but if you wanted to, I’d only compare the Mets to the 2 teams above and behind them in each draft.
Who did they just miss out on, who did the other team snag right after them?
Me and Satish have already discussed some of the issues you talked about. We agreed on a method that we both think is the fairest way evaluate all the teams. We still have some adjustments to make, but I think it’s going pretty well so far. Of course it won’t be 100% perfect, but the goal is to give everyone a clearer picture of how the Mets actually drafted during this period.
I don’t think it is a waste of time, I think it will be very informative.
Cool, I look forward to reading it.
I don’t mean a waste of time in terms of don’t quit your day job.
I just mean there are so many elements that go into the success and failure of a draft class. That if you’re trying to determine the face value of draft picks versus other teams’ picks – my opinion is the best way to do that is to look at the teams who picked around the Mets.
Comparing a draft class in 07, 08, 09 of the Mets to say the draft class of the Pirates isn’t fair really to either party. Take the 2012 class, the Pirates look bad if Appel turns into a stud because they didn’t sign him. But in reality they HAD to take him there. He’s a projected #1 pick for Houston again this year, and they had to take the gamble that they could sign him.
Injuries, coaches coming/going, when/if the player signed… there’s just so much that goes into it. That’s all I’m sayin
I have gone over every teams draft but it was over a decade not what seems to be the time period discussed here which I’m guessing it’s Omar’s tenure from 05-10 but I think it should also include IFA’s to get a clearer picture of each teams farm system. I mean if you take away Reyes and Alfonzo the Mets look even worse as far as developing their own impact players. There are teams that did worse during the period 05-10 and there are teams that did better. We were average at best. There is still a chance we’re above average if Ike, Harvey and Niese reach an elite level.
I hope you two have come up with a method that takes into account Draft Position since your ability to take a better player than another is very much dependent on who you have a choice from….
A Team who picks in the top 10 SHOULD have an easier time picking good players than someone who picks 5 positions later….
Look forward to it though.
Obviously, a team like the Washington Nationals that was terrible on the field over that span should end up with a better record than a team with a constantly good record like the New York Yankees. However, teams like the Mets or Braves are pretty comparable, having had some very good, some solid and some bad seasons in that specific time frame. And of course, even if you have a consistently good major league team, the goal should also be to do better than expected in the draft – even if you have a disadvantage entering the draft a bit later.
The Yankees actually had a little stretch in the 2001 to 2005 range, I believe in which they did very well, in spite of a low draft slot, drafting players such as Austin Jackson, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or to a lesser degree Joba Chamberlain, plus signed Robinson Cano as an IFA. That – besides their 200 million $ payroll, of course – helped them quite a bit over recent time. And one significant recent problem for the Yankees has been their atrocious drafting record between 2006 and 2010 which – at least so far – has produced neither any useful major leaguers nor higher-end prospects that can be turned into legit major leaguers. The Phillies are currently battling a similar problem. The few good prospects of their past 5 to 7 drafts have all been traded away. No impact major league help is anywhere in the system or at least upper minors to be found.
It´s the price you pay for success, of course. But teams like the Texas Rangers or St. Louis Cardinals have managed to do very well procuring young talent over the past 4 years or so, in spite being quite successful at the major league level. The Braves – historically – have been able to that as well. Even if their system currently has thinned out quite a bit after trades and graduations.
One task where the Mets – regardless of who was the GM – have underperformed over the past 10 years IMHO is “player development”. They have procured a significant number of talented players but have often seemingly failed to maximize their abilities. That may have something to do with the (lack of ?) quality of coaching, the way players are promoted (too agressively under Bernazard) or maybe a lack of detail regarding “soft skills” such as coachability or mental toughness. Now, I believe the organizational approach has started to change for the better since the departure of Tony Bernazard. At least on the pitching side, one can already see much better results, better health and a better development track for several prospects. The progress on the offensive side hasn´t been as pronounced yet. Though in the 2009 through 2011 drafts, the Mets didn´t pick many advanced hitters early on anyway, so it would figure that this part would be lagging behind a bit.
I do believe player development started to improve when Terry Collins was hired to run the minor league instructional department.
Player development has been a wash here since the 90′s…
Vinny B — I just noticed this additional discussion in the thread and am glad you are going to tackle the job of finding an optional way to rate farm systems over a specific period of time. I would like to make a few suggestions:
1) I think any methodology needs to have a counting stat like WAR. That’s the only way you can assess the value of something over time. A rate state like OPS or ERA simply won’t cut it.
2) It needs to include defense. Anything that doesn’t is a failure IMO, since defense is a critical part of the game for many players. And whatever the defensive metric used, it needs to be one of the more advanced ones based on zone ratings. There is no perfect stat for defense, but the ones based on zone ratings are the best there is.
3) It needs to include ALL players drafted by a team, even if they were eventually traded away. But it should not include players traded for. So, for example, a player like Wheeler would be counted for the Giants, but not for the Mets. That’s also why I liked Andre’s method — because he included ALL players drafted by a team.
4) In regard to draft position, that’s a tough nut to crack. But since we are looking at a farm system over time, the differences in position will even out to some extent. For example, during some years that Omar was GM, the Mets had a better draft position than the Braves, but in other years, they had a worse one. Unless you can come up with a very fair and sensible way to factor in draft position, then I would just ignore it.
5) The final value needs to represent the total farm system over the period of time vs. simply value per player. Why? Because part of the criticism of Omar is that he squandered so many early round picks by signing free agents. If you used a value-per-player methodology, that would tend to cover up that weakness.
5) Regarding IFAs, sure they are important, but is it even feasible to add them in? AFAIK, the data for drafted prospects is immensely easier to find online than that for IFAs. It would be better to look at IFAs in a separate study than to risk distorting a study by adding in lesser quality data to a more solid and comprehensive data set. And to some extent, the lack of IFAs will impact all teams equally. For example, if we don’t count Ruben Tejada for the Mets, then we are also not counting Chapman for the Reds. It may be enough to simply add a separate notation to your study mentioning any IFAs signed during that time period who have already made significant contributions on the major league level. There won’t be many, due to the longer development time generally required for IFAs.
Finally, if you can, I would love to see all 30 teams done for 2005-2010. People can then argue afterwards what teams are more relevant to look at and why. But it would be nice to see how all 30 teams net out.
I thought this was an overall fair analysis. Omar Minaya had six drafts, which is a big enough sample size and the results were mixed. While I don’t think anyone ever accused him of leaving a bountiful system it wasn’t the barren wasteland that Adam Rubin and others wrote about at the time. I think comparing Mets to Nats to that time is a bit of an apples to oranges, but comparing Mets to the Braves is certainly not. Also, look at the drafts of the Braves and Nats from 2005 to 2010 shows how much of a crap shoot the draft is and how players picked after #20 rarely make it.
The Braves’ first picks were 2005 — Beau Jones ( picked at #41 and never passed AA); 2006 Cory Rasmus (picked at #38 and career minor leaguer); 2007 — Jason Heyward picked at #14; 2008 — Brett DeVall (picked at #40 and still in A ball); 2009 — Mike Minor picked at #7 and 2010 — Matt Lipka (Picked at #35 and still in A Ball). That’s two impact players out of six, from one of the best scouting departments in baseball and one was a #7 and the other #14 coming off two losing seasons.
The Nats’ first picks were — 2005 — Ryan Zimmerman picked at #4; 2006 Colton Willems (picked at #22 and still in A ball); 2007 Ross Detwiler (picked at #6 and hardly an impact player despite a decent WAR); 2008 Aaron Crow ( picked at #9 and out of baseball without making the majors); 2009 Strasburg #1 and 2010 Harper #1. So the Nats had 3 impact players out of 6, but all 3 of them were top five picks, which makes that quite a bit easier. 5 of the 6 years they picked in the top 10 and still whiffed on Aaron Crow.
The Mets’ first picks were 2005– Pelfrey picked at #9; 2006 — Mulvey (2d round); 2007 — Eddie Kunz (picked at #42); 2008 — Ike Davis (picked at #18); 2009 Matz (with 72nd pick) and 2010 Matt Harvey (picked at #7). That’s two potential impact players picked from drafts where their best position was #7 and in 3 of the 6 years they were no higher than #42.
So in fairness to Minaya, if you are pursuing a strategy of acquiring free agents, the draft is going to suffer. It is no coincidence that two of his best drafts came in 2005 (after 90 plus loss season in 2004) and 2010 (after 90 plus loss season in 2009).
Finally, while a neutral stat I am not a huge fan of WAR where Jason Heyward is a “stud” and Ike Davis is a complementary player. They both started in 2010 and here are their respective offensive stats since then, bearing in mind that Heyward has played in 89 more games and has had 332 more at bats:
Ike Davis — 58 HRs; 186 RBIs; .252 BA; .797 OPS
Jason Heyward — 59 HRs; 196 RBIs; .261 BA; .799 OPS
Great point about Heyward and Ike.
Yea but you have to deduct 5 Points from Ike’s WAR because he wears a Met Uniform you know….LOL
lol, right, I forgot you have to deduct 5 points off any player that was drafted by Minaya.
Well,
This is the new age of “rationalization” Saber goons/geeks, their thing is numbers and numbers only. And as most people know you can fudge, interpret, and read anything you want into a lot of these newer statistics. The danger is it’s spilling into real life.
That’s why you have these guys like Lerner that rationalize everything Sandy does, because of numbers. It’s the only way you can arrive at such silly, silly comparisons such as comparing Wilmer Flores to a new kid named Nimmo like he did in that infamous post about those 2.
Numbers. They twist, turn, and use them any which way and now it’s spilling over into their arguments about other facets of the game/life. WAR is GREAT for that and why they love it so much.
Old School:
“Finally, while a neutral stat I am not a huge fan of WAR where Jason Heyward is a “stud” and Ike Davis is a complementary player. They both started in 2010 and here are their respective offensive stats since then, bearing in mind that Heyward has played in 89 more games and has had 332 more at bats:”
I believe a large majority of why Heyward is considered a stud is that he accomplished those numbers from age 20-22. Hey turns 23 in August of this year while Ike turns 26 before Opening Day.
So I don’t think it’s so much as their “war” but more their performance based on their age.
Yet the younger guy has DECLINED while the Older guy who you say is supposed to decline quicker had improved….
So much for Age being any indicator of who is better than who and who will decline when….
?
Ike had a career worst .770 OPS in 2012.
Heyward had an .814 OPS in 2012 after a .707 OPS in 2011.
One is a 1bman ( deep offensive position), the other a RF ( modest offensive position).
Ike ranked 17th among 24 qualifying 1bmen in 2012 in OPS.
Heyward ranked 11th out of 27 qualifying RF in 2012.
I really like Ike and believe he can turn into a Justin Morneau / Carlos Pena type 1bman going forward, But let’s not pretend that he has been more than a fringe average 1bman so far who has alternated very good stretches with very poor stretches throughout his career.
Actually he has been more than a fringe average 1bman so far who has alternated very good stretches with very poor stretches throughout his career. No pretending is necessary when the description is accurate..
- Defensively he is much better than avg.
- Throughout his career? What career? A rookie season in which he hit lefties better than righties?
- Then 2 months experience in his 2nd season before getting hurt. And during a season that he got off to a tremendous start?
- Then before his 3rd season starts he has to overcome a major injury to his ankle and overcome a possibly career threatening ailment.
Let’s address the “human” side of this. This is a guy who we’ve yet to see have a full healthy season other than his rookie year. And during his 1st 2 seasons he showed some special ability to deliver big hits when you need them the most.
Can he get his career started first?
Again, I really like Ike GOING FORWARD and hope & believe he will become above average.
However – whatever the explanation, being rushed essentially skipping AAA, inexperience, valley fewer, injuries, bad luck – he hasn’ BEEN so far.
nah, it’s not bad luck. It’s injuries.
Ike was rushed? First time I heard of this. Wanting to blame Omar for something right?
Got it. He’s one of the better new first baseman in all of baseball so the problem here is who found him isn’t it?
I think it is.
LOA fw posts ago Ike was too old….
Now he was rushed?
Any port in a storm….What they need is a bucket to bail out their GOOD DAY SHIP Sandy!
Ike skipped AAA (except for a handful of games), so yes, he may not have been 100 % prepared.
It´s basically the same argument regarding Wheeler and D´Arnaud today:
Would they hold their own in the majors right now ? Quite likely.
Will they be better prepared and more likely to succeed 3 months from now ? Quite likely.
Was Ike Davis better than Mike Jacobs in April 2010 ?
Certainly.
Would he have been more prepared and better in July 2010 ?
Quite likely.
Again, stop the Omar vs. Sandy BS.
How often do I need to point out that Omar did a solid job overall and gets undue blame for some things that happened ??? Was Omar a great GM ? Certainly not. But he also wasn´t a failure. He did not leave an easy situation for sure. But that´s what happens near the end of a contention cycle (one that Omar built), especially when your owners slide into a major cash flow problem.
Likewise, has Sandy Alderson been a great GM ? No. He did very well in the Dickey & Beltran trades, cut cost, thus (unfortunately successfully) saving the Wilpons the franchise (it was his job, though, so can´t blame him for that) and creating a more sound development approach than before. He let Reyes go for very little, up until this off-season showed a surprising lack of creativity regarding cheap fill-ins for the major league roster, gave away Pagan for nothing, acknowledged a mistake by cutting the GCL team and wasted the little money he had on mediocre relievers even if he should have known better. The business plan SA has is very sound and makes absolute sense. Whether the plan works on the field and leads to an era of sustained success remains to be seen.
See, that´s the main problem, when you rebuild and reboot, it takes a while to find out whether you have been successful. If you go for the quick fix, you know the results pretty quickly. There´s no way you can assess the Alderson tenure at any time before 2015 at the very earliest. Probably a lot later as the key component is the supposed longevity of a winner. So, if a winner is in place by 2014 or 2015, it´s only the first half of the promise. The 2nd half is the sustainability – which we won´t know before the end of the David Wright contract, probably.
stupid me forgot to mention the other variable you would never EVER bring up. The fact that the “one-size fits all hitting philosophy” quite possibly could have contributed heavily to the setbacks of Ike, Duda, & Murphy.
That has been discussed many times and everybody here knows how much Bobby O would bring it up as being more detrimental than anything else.
But you would NEVER mention that. And you have no proof of the philosophy not being the reason. You may have an opinion that it is not but you have no proof that that it is not either. If anything it already has been discussed on SNY that it could be hurting, not helping.
I haven´t seen any substantial change in approach for Ike, Duda or Murphy between what they did prior to 2011 and since. And it´s not as if these three have regressed since 2010.
All three have just been very inconsistent. All three hit well with Hudgens as their hitting coach in 2011 (Ike only for 6 weeks before being lost for the season) and then didn´t hit as well in 2012 – with Ike maybe showing some rust because of missing most of the previous year, plus potential effects of valley fever (or at least the talk about it getting into his head, maybe) and Murphy & Duda both trying to learn to play defense at positions where they weren´t very comfortable.
I don´t know. It´s good that the Mets finally do seem to have an organizational approach in place. In the past, there was none both in terms of hitting & pitching and it messed up players with coaches constantly tinkering and changing things around as they moved up. That does date back to the 1980s.
The pitching side seems to have cleared up quite a bit. Pitchers are being handled in a pretty similar way – and so far so good – the results seem to be very positive.
The organizational approach on hitting hasn´t delivered any real fruits yet. Though it didn´t really work before either, so it´s rather a case of something that has been broke not being fixed yet.
Over the past 15+ years, the Mets neither did a good job developing hitters nor pitchers. Wright & Reyes were rare finds. Other than that, player development was an utter failure.
On the pitching side, it took over 12+ years after the debut of Bobby J.Jones for the Mets to bring up another promising young SP in Mike Pelfrey (whose value certainly wasn´t maximized as he was sort of rushed through the system). And the Mets´ record for coming up with strong & inexpensive homegrown relievers was just as atrocious. Since Octavio Dotel got traded to Houston prior to 2000, how many good relievers did this franchise develop ? Maybe a handful over 10+ years. Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Heath Bell & Matt Lindstrom (who only became good elsewhere) and most recently Bobby Parnell. The Braves usually need 3-4 years for such a modest total at any given time. And looking around the leagues, most better teams have usually featured several young & inexpensive arms in their bullpens in recent years. That´s a problem that should be put to rest very quickly though due to the enormous amount of young pitching in the system currently within the next two years.
DrDooby – I do not really agree that Ike was “rushed.” To me a rush is when a player has not done enough to prove they deserve a job in the bigs. Remember, the Mets had Mike Jacobs as their starting 1B that year so right there you can fault Omar for not having a better plan.
But
A lot of players don’t really spend an entire year at AAA… in fact AA is considered a place where future big leaguers play and AAA at times is notable for the place where former big leaguers play.
Ike hit .480 in 12 spring games in 2010, with 3 HR and 10 RBI.
When he got called up, he had a pretty good rookie year. We don’t know how 2011 would have gone due to the injury but I don’t think you can decide he was rushed simply because last year was a disaster for half a season.
I think Ike needs to prove he’s a consistent threat and a cornerstone 1B this year. But was he rushed? No. I don’t think spending 2010 in AAA would have done him any good… in fact if that is the only part of history you want to re-write, then he still gets hurt in 2011 and has shattered confidence in 2012 because he doesn’t know MLB pitching yet.
I also disagree with you Dr Dooby. I don’t think Ike was rushed. There was talk about him starting the season with the big club instead of starting the season with Jacobs after Murphy went down in a grapefruit league game. I thought Ike should’ve started on opening day. And all Ike did after having a great spring was rip the cover off the ball in AAA. Ike was ready.
I´d say that´s a pretty small sample size.
There´s a difference between being able to “survive” in the majors and being well prepared.
Mike Pelfrey was also able to “hold his own” but certainly was rushed in a rather extreme way – without ever getting the chance to work on his secondary stuff in a low pressure environment.
Ike would certainly have benefitted from a couple of months of AAA in 2010 but was basically forced into action with Murphy being out for the season and Jacobs / Catalanotto showing total ineptness.
It´s also why Wheeler – Mejia – McHugh who all have made only 10 or so starts in AAA each so far would all be better off with a couple of extra months there to work on things. Or why d´Arnaud, Flores or Den Dekker should get a bit more time at AAA before they´re being considered for a major league spot.
WAR doesn’t take age into account.
One reason why Heyward ‘s WAR is higher is because he’s played in more games.
Okay I’ll try to respond to both you and Metsie in 1 shot
I understand war doesn’t take into account age…but logic does.
Heyward being in “decline” after turning 22 is pretty much the silliest thing you’ve ever said Metsie.
His power #s improved, and he won a gold glove this year and he just turned 23 near the end of the season.
Besides Trout & Harper can you name a player Heyward’s age or young who is better? Heck I’ll even spot you a year. Name a hitter besides Trout & Harper that is was 24 years old or younger who is better than Heyward
You can’t.
Stop trying to act like Heyward at his age isn’t impressive.
Plus lets not forget to mention Heyward has speed, and is one of the best corner outfielders defensively in the game today.
And using what logic does it make the player better?
Do you get more performance in any given year because he is younger?
NOPE the numbers are the SAME!
Do you get to keep the Younger guy longer and cheaper in this case?
NOPE! Heyward is paid MORE than Ike and BOTH will be Free Agents at the exact same time!
So all this benefit from AGE is not a benefit in any given year, NOT EVEN in the year they both turn FA!
Having the YOUNGER GUY gets them ZERO ADVANTAGE AT ALL!
No extra control, No extra performance numbers it would appear and in the end Ike will probably be cheaper to sign due to his age than Heyward will!
LOGIC says you got NOTHING for your AGE in this comparison of players!
Stanton
With apologies to Jason Heyward but he is 3 months older than Stanton and while Hayward is a nice player he is not a game changer like Stanton. Stanton over Heyward any day.
Russell & Jon: Nice job on Stanton. For some reason he slipped my mind. So Stanton, Trout, Harper then Heyward. Still top 5 offensive player in his age bracket. That’s not something to ignore.
When you add speed and defense, he becomes top three in his age bracket. He’s probably already a top 5 OF in the NL and aside from Trout, I’m not sure who’s better in the AL. And he’s still getting better.
This was such a bold statement I was like ‘that can’t be right”. But if you look at the comparable NL outfielders (at least under 30) with better offensive stats, you get Stanton, Braun, Bruce, McCutchen, Upton and Gonzalez. That’s about it and Heyward is definitely in the mix.
I’d still take Trout 1st out of that group. He’s the best all around player of the 4.
Trout’s arguably the best all around talent in baseball right now. He puts together another year, it won’t even be arguable.
Younger is better, but I can’t help notice the similarities including Heyward’s awful 2011 where the Braves almost sent him to the minors (maybe he had Valley Fever).
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/blog/_/name/bell_stephania/id/6642150/does-jason-heyward-deserve-criticism-handling-shoulder-injury
Younger is better provided all things being equal….
Hardly the case here….
One is trending up the other trending down….
And in the end why is it better to have younger?
For the notion that you will HAVE THEM longer!
Have more control…
But they both will hit FA at the same time….And when that time comes it will take more money to sign Heyward than Ike.
That is if they stay equal till then and the trending evens out.
If Ike had not struggled last year with the BA the numbers wouldn’t even be close!
If Ike had not missed all that time in 2011 they would be even further apart!
But the kid is the stud and the stud is the old foggie…
I can’t wait till the kids who think that hit 40 and get passed over for unqualified kids themselves….
Metsie – what in the world are you looking at?
Why are you pretending that Heyward had a bad year?
“One is trending up the other trending down….”
Heyward won a gold glove, stole more bases and hit for more power this year than he ever has.
How can you say Heyward is trending down but Ike is trending up?
In more games than Ike’s 2010, Ike had fewer hits, fewer doubles, fewer walks, more K, lower BA, lower OBP, lower OPS, lower OPS+. So because he hit more HR that means he is trending up?
But Heyward hit more HR this year than his best year, so why isn’t he trending up?
You’re making stuff up. How you consider Ike as “trending up” after 2012 is beyond me. He hit .227… is he trending up because the only place to go is up or down to AAA?
You know where Heyward trended down? Walks.
Now please explain to me how walks aren’t important since apparently it did so much damage to Heyward at 22.
If Heyward walked even close to his 2010 rate he’d have a career year last year.
And what are you pretending that Ike didn’t have one bad year after missing a year of seeing MLB pitching?
Heyward had one good year followed by a HORRIBLE year followed by a mediocre year….
Ike had a horrible 1st half and then salvaged it (save the BA) in the second half…
Jason Heyward had an AVERAGE 1st half and then declined in the second half….
So at best your STUD has been playing POGO while the other guy has been consisten two year and then had a bad year after a long layoff…..
And his 2nd half was trending UP while the studs 2nd half trended down….
Please you just like the age which gets you SQUAT of what you think it gets…
No more performance….Number are equal
No more control, Both will be FA at the same time
And No cheaper because currently Heyward costs more than Ike does!
So what is logically BETTER abut the younger?
Metsie, I just remembered something. Aren’t you the one who argued Duda could be or is better than Heyward?
If so, I don’t think I’m chatting with a level minded person so we’ll just agree to disagree and move on.
And THIS is why the INSULTS and CHILDISH BEHAVIOR STARTS AROUND HERE!
Thank you for showing the world just what a pompous arrogant insulting and childish A$$H0LE you are and WHY WE HAVE THESE BANNINGS no matter who is left after the LAST GUY you did this to got banned!
Yes I said Duda COULD be a better player than Heyward!
And YOU were the one who said Sandy had a GREAT DAY the day he traded Pagan for Two Stiffs!
So lets see who HAS been proven WRONG and who MIGHT if Duda does do what I project he can if he works at it?
I am reporting this just to get the satisfaction of seeing JoeD delete one of your posts…
And YOUR the idiot who thought you could be a fair moderator!
Your full of it Jessup!
Your the worst because you THINK your so frigging smart and INNOCENT yet your the one who has been wrong MORE than me over the past two years and YOUR the one who starts all the crap that results in bannings arond here posting tripe like you just posted above!
We should all just IGNORE YOU and you with your TRACK RECORD on being WRONG ALL THE TIME especially where Acquisitions are concerned, coupled with your propensity to start fights in the way you just did that forces JoeD to sit all day and the Ban controls. should be removed as a contributor of this site until such time you learn how to ACT like a responsible being!
And Metsie,
Duda, Ike AND Murphy all fell off last year and nobody can disprove that the hitting philosophy contributed to that. Heck, Bobby O practically directly blamed the hitting philosophy many times last year and especially connected it to Duda’s decline.
For all of my criticisms of Daniel Murphy he was a machine in 2011 showing perfect balance at the plate with lightning quick, powerful follow throughs in his swing. He showed nothing less than perfect balance and bat control last year and was simply very confident. Than out of nowhere suddenly he’s waving the bat, taking pitches, and looking feeble?
All those clowns here you think they’d bring that up in any of their arguments about production? No! Of course not. Why? Because the thing to do now is just to run “numbers” by us without any regard of the versatility of the human element in producing these numbers.
It’s a disgrace.
Sandy took a dump this morning….Bay
It was the finest dump any GM in Baseball has ever taken!
And what came out was Jessup…..
The man who takes someone as INSANE for saying someone MIGHT improve to be a better player but who is SOOOOO SMART he thought is was a Good day when Sandy got two more DUMPS for Pagan….
Yeah we are the ones with no credibility….What an A$$!
thanks for your comments Metsie, have a wonderful evening
No…THANK YOU for giving me the post I needed to show Joe who starts the problems he has been having….
They had the same “hitting philosophy” in 2011 as they did in 2012. And Ike’s problems at the start of the season were partially related to him not being able to implement the “philosophy”. He was swinging at a lot of crap pitches and was an easy out. Once he stopped doing that…he improved.
What numbers are you looking at? Hewyard in 2010 wasn’t just good, he was great, in 2011 he did take a step back to merely average. In 2012 he had a great first half followed by a good second half.
I like Ike Davis and think he’s a damn fine first baseman and is going to have a breakout season, but Heyward is better and there’s not a gm in the world who if given the chance would swap him for Ike.
What numbers are the rest of you looking at to say he is a stud?
The eyes tell you he’s a stud.
The eyes tell you the woman disappeared or was sawed in half at a Magic show too!
Interesting article, I think the WAR numbers ultimately show (because the difference is significant) that clearly the Mets farm hasn’t produced as well as the Nats’ or the Braves’ systems, however, unlike “counting stats” my problem with WAR is that I don’t understand it … there, I said it. If I had a few hours and a chalkboard maybe I could hammer it into by brain with a rubber mallet, but for now I just take their word for it, for instance, that a +8 WAR means a pretty good player. Here’s the “simple” explanation from fangraphs:
“Take wRAA, UBR, and UZR (which express offensive, base running, and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished!”
OK so now you need to know about wRAA? fine:
“Calculating wRAA is simple if you have a player’s wOBA value: subtract the league average wOBA from your player’s wOBA, divide by the wOBA scale coefficient (1.26 for 2011), and multiply that result by how many plate appearances the player received.
wRAA = ((wOBA – league wOBA) / wOBA scale) × PA”
Got it? Oh, right, of course now you need to understand wOBA, ok then:
“The wOBA formula for the 2011 season was:
wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA”
wOBA is tricky because the weights change on a yearly basis … so anyways, as you can see, even though they keep insisting it’s “simple,” it’s not easy trying to really understand what goes into value metrics (and whether or not they possess a practical utility). My guess is that they do, to a degree, however, a healthy percentage of these calculations is derived from subjective “difficulty level” type ratings … so I continue to be skeptical, especially when I read stuff like this:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/862410-mlb-2011-roy-halladay-cc-sabathia-and-the-uselessness-of-war
In general, I actually like value metrics like UZR for defense more than offensive metrics because, oddly enough there are few if any objective “counting stats” that can give you a quantified account of a player’s defense — so in the absence of anything else I’ll take an amalgam of subjective impressions on whether or not a line drive was difficult or really really difficult … the reason I’m somewhat more skeptical of broad “all encompassing” metrics like WAR, is that if there have been any errors along the way (for example calculating wRAA, wOBA or UZR for WAR), they errors are compounded in the final metric.
I think in the end the point of the article holds true however, because even if you were to assemble counting stats, (wins, K’s, era, hits, home runs, rbi, etc) I’m all but certain you’d come to a similar conclusion — namely that the Mets farm has not done well over the course of the drafts in question relative to the Braves & Nats — so in that light, maybe WAR is valuable after all … who knows, I sure don’t.
Why is everybody trashing Ike Davis for? Really?
Hodges I’m not trying to trash him, I’m trying to be realistic. He had a rookie year, then got hurt then was “rusty” for half a season.
No more excuses. I’ll be happy if he turns into a Top 10 1B but right now people act like he’s Top 5 and he’s not. We need to see more. That’s all really… I’d like to see more before I annoint him a core player
And what was Heywards excuse?
you are talking about 2012? The guy finished 28th in the MVP voting, and won a gold glove. Not really seeing that he needs to make excuses for anything.
No van was talking about 2011!
Much worse year than any Ike has had….
is it that hard to believe that a fatigued Ike Davis’ had to believe he needed to get back out on the field, and ‘tough’ it out. I genuinely believe we’ll see the Ike Davis that started 2011 before the injury.
Me too.
I don’t even think it was the fatigue, he missed most of spring training and ended up a month rustier than everyone else and then the slump became self replicating.
I remember Keith talking about Delgado during that one horrendous slump of his and how when a player get’s into that type of situation they forget to trust their talent, their hands start moving, they open up way to soon and all contact becomes weak contact. That was Ike in the first half, he was flailing and swinging with just his arms, he couldn’t drive the ball. When he started trusting his hands again his swing returned and he had a very good second half.
Excellent article Andre but in fairness to Omar he was under the same Met philosophy regarding the draft as the GM’s that came before him. For one he had pretty much the same scouting staff that Steve Phillips had with the excepetion of 4 scouts and the International scouting staff.
Marlin McPhail who scouted and signed Matt Harvey, Josh Edgin, Reese and Bobby Parnell also signed Ty Wigginton and DJ Wabick. He was hired by Steve Phillips. He also signed Cory Mazzoni who was drafted in 2011 and is still scouting the Carolinas spanning 4 different GM’s.
Steve Leavitt who signed Lucas Duda was hired by Steve Phillips.
Erwin Bryant who signed Jonathon Niese was hired by Steve Phillips.
Mike Brown who signed Ike Davis was hired by Steve Phillips.
Omar brought Fred Mazuca to Montreal with him and brought him back to the Mets even though Phillips hired him he did leave with Omar and came back and he’s responsible for Nieuwenhuis.
Another Omar hired Scout Ray Corbett was responsible for Dillon Gee, Josh Thole and Daniel Murphy although Murph was spotted by Bernazard when he went to go watch his son play and happen to notice Murph spraying line drives all over the place.
In other words the Mets were drafting under the same guidelines with Omar as they were in the past meaning drafting safe college players for the most part because of their signability, adhering to slot guidlines instead of drafting on upside potential and using their resources to their advantage to go overslot. That in a nuutshell is why the Mets always had a mediocre to poor farm system. It really didn’t matter much if it was Omar, Duqutte, Phillips or anybody else if you’re going to refuse to use your advantage as a big market team then that’s what you end up with.
That would be what is known as an organizational philosophy.
Fonzie, interesting information about the scouts, and to a large extent what you said makes sense. However, keep in mind that the Braves never regularly spent over slot. So why are they so successful and the Mets not?
One of the things that shouldn’t be overlooked is how Omar neglected to protect draft picks. So the Mets under Omar had a smaller number of picks in the first 3 rounds than the Nats and Braves. I talk about that in my post below.
Drafting low ceiling college players along with doing a lousy job developing are a couple of examples why we sucked at producing players and I agree, I applaud the fact that Alderson is trying to change both flawed startegies. I also agree that I wouldn’t give up the pick for Bourn. I wouldn’t have a proble if another 27 year old Beltran came along but I wouldn’t give it up for Bourn.
Yeah, I want to preserve that pick. However, I think Sandy may make Bourn an offer and then take the chance that MLB will protect the pick afterwards. Maybe he’ll do some whispering in Selig’s ear to get some secret assurances beforehand.
So do I. It’s an even weaker draft than last years draft and I’d hate to give the pick up. If they do sign Bourn which I just don’t see I hope it’s no more than a 3 year deal. He doesn’t get on base enough for a leadoff hitter and strikes out way too much. He’s also useless against LOOGY’s which is a killer when you’re down a run late and you need hi to get something going.
doesnt get on base enough for a leadoff hitter?
what is the avg OBP for a leadoff hitter?
Fonzie:He doesn’t get on base enough for a leadoff hitter
still has not answered the question on what is the avg OBP for a leadoff hitter…
Bourn from innings 7-9 is hitting .261…
and if u have a guy behind him that hits lefties well ( tejada )
…a team on avg only has 1-2 loogies at most…
bourn hit .250 against LHP last year…
but according to u…he is useless !
lmao
ur analysis is useless, but thats another discussion for the fonz !
last year Bourn innings 7-9 229/320/335 655 OPS.
Vs Relief pitchers 219/314/311 625 OPS. That’s both LHP and RHP. Guess which is worse.
Career vs LHP 249/306/336 642 OPS 251/327/330 657 OPS vs relief pitchers 1st time around. 6 for 18 2nd time around. He doesn’t sniff LOOGY’s
You want to give this guy 12-15 mil a year? And lose a 1st rounder? I wouldn’t hand in a resume for a GM position. No wonder why you idolize Omar.
Wright hit 250 in the 2nd half last year and that according to you was a collapse but Bourn hitting 225 in the 2nd half is fine. 250 vs LHP according to you is fine as long as it’s not Wright.
Okay!
BINGO “That in a nuutshell is why the Mets always had a mediocre to poor farm system. It really didn’t matter much if it was Omar, Duqutte, Phillips or anybody else if you’re going to refuse to use your advantage as a big market team then that’s what you end up with.”
Andre, excellent article. I especially like how you used cumulative WAR for the yardstick in this context. I think WAR is the best single stat for indicating overall player value. And while I don’t like to use it for comparing pitchers or catchers, in this case any inequities are likely to be evened out given the number of draft picks being used in the sample.
So the question arises, why is there this disparity between the Mets and some of their NL East rivals? Is it the scouting? The development? A specific draft philosophy including adhering to slot?
I think it’s a little of each, except the Braves haven’t had a history of going over slot. So I’m not sure that’s the issue some make it out to be.
I also think it has to do with protecting draft picks or lack thereof. One thing I didn’t like about Omar was how he signed so many free agents, thereby losing so many draft picks. Other teams like the Red Sox and Yankees did this too, BUT they were able to get draft picks by offering departing players arbitration and collecting compensation picks. Because Omar had a tendency to sign so many injury prone and/or over-the-hill players, they were usually worthless by the time their contracts with the Mets were up, and so Omar could rarely afford to offer them arbitration.
If you look at the number of early round picks (rounds 1-3) the three teams had from 2005 through 2010, this problem becomes very apparent:
Braves — 27 picks
Nats — 22 picks
Mets — 18 picks
Since the draft to some extent is a crapshoot, the more early round picks you have, the more likely the success of that draft class. Obviously, there are other issues that contributed to the disparity in the quality of the drafts between the Mets and their rivals, but the failure to protect picks in the past shouldn’t be overlooked. This is why Sandy’s desire to protect this year’s 11th overall pick is totally understandable and justified.
Omar neglected the draft, figuring he would just “buy” what he needed every winter or get talent through international free agents. That strategy didn’t work in the long run, so I support Sandy’s attempts to place a higher value on the farm system, even though that route may take longer. It is the route that also makes the most sense given the team’s financial issues of the last few years.
WAR wasn’t a great yardstick in this context at all. The reason why is because a average or even a bad player can have a higher WAR than a superstar player just because they played in more games. For example, do you think Yunel Escobar is a more valuable player than Strasburg or Harper? Using WAR in this context would make Escobar seem like the better player, even though he obviously isn’t.
Combine that and the fact that only two teams were used as comparisons, I think the article is severely flawed.
I disagree. Because what you want to look for is the cumulative value of a farm system over a period of time and how much it had the potential to help the major league club. You want the total value. So you want a “counting stat.” And WAR is the best counting stat there is that includes both defense and offense.
We are not looking for who the best player is. That’s not the goal, as I see it. Which is why I said I had no problem using WAR, even though I don’t like to use it to compare pitchers and catchers. Again, you want to look at TOTAL VALUE within a certain period of time.
As for using only two teams, that makes the study have a certain limitation, but not a relevant one. Right now the Nats and Braves are seen as the two strongest teams in the division, so it’s natural and relevant to compare those teams with the Mets.
Also, the Marlins are such a weird and unconventional franchise that I’m not sure comparing them to anyone else in the division makes sense. So at least this study looks at the Mets vs. 2 out of the 3 relevant teams.
If you think the study can be improved upon, why don’t you add the other teams and do the number crunching yourself? And suggest a better stat or methodology to use?
That’s a great idea. I probably will try to do that.
Vinny, I’d be interested in reading that. You know I don’t give much creedence to WAR, but you can’t overlook the fact that the reason the Mets are suffering because of “playing time” as you put it (in and of itself not wrong) is because Omar A) gave away too many picks B) drafted terribly with the ones he had and few even have major league experience to speak of.
Good points, Metro
I find it ironic that the Omar defenders use his win now approach for his poor drafting are always complaining about SA not signing free agents.
no, not being able to spend overslot in the later portions of the draft ( that has nothing to do with the 1st pick ) handcuffed Omar…
fortunately, Omar was able to get a starting SS ( Tejada ) a starting LF ( Duda ) a starting 2B ( Murphy ) a #2 starter ( Niese ) with 1 hand tied behind his back
Maybe he should have used both hands. Tejada is irrelevant because he wasn’t drafted, Duda is a starter on the Mets and only the Mets, and Murphy wouldn’t be at 2B, where his bat makes him one of the better ones, on most of the teams in baseball. If Murphy was at 3B or a corner OF spot or even a DH, he’d be ok at best.
Tejada doesnt count b/c he wasnt drafted ?!?! bwahahahaha yea ok….
Duda was sought after by the Rays….I think its safe to say they recognize talented players too
Duda would be a DH/1B on many AL teams. I dont think a 7th round draft pick is normally expected to produce as much as he has….
The only reason Murphy isnt playing 3B is because Wright is here to stay. When Murphy did play 3B in 2011, he was much better than he was at 2B for a variety of reasons. again, look where Murphy was drafted….we have gotten MUCH better production out of him than normally expected.
You also forgot to mention Niese…
lets not even forget Ike…and Harvey…and Gee…
again…if Omar inherited those players and was able to supplement them with stars, we might have the sustainable success folks are talking about.
You can’t talk about how not being able to go overslot in the draft hurt Omar (which is true), then follow that up with “he still got us Tejada.” One has nothing to do with the other. It’s a false argument.
The Rays wanted Duda how long ago? Let’s wait to see if Duda can go through a full season without getting demoted to the minors before we decide that he’s a creadit to Omar’s drafts.
I didn’t mention Niese because you were right about him. Great pick. As ar as the others, they weren’t part of the discussion till you added them after the fact.
You said fortunately the Mets were able to get Tejada (irrelevant), Duda (still hasn’t played a full season), Murphy (good bat plays well at 2B, not well in a corner spot) and Niese. Why would I have mentioned Ike or Gee or Harvey? You’re creating false strawman arguments. Stick to the topic.
Neither was Wheeler d’Arnaud or Snydergaard so for the last two years the only thing you can give Sandy credit for using your parameters is Losing Reyes, Beltran, K-Rod, Pagan and Dickey…
Is that what you intended when you tried to slice Tejada off the list with your flippant parameters regarding drafting?
That’s a key point. Omar lacked draft resources which isn’t the end of the world, but those he did have he didn’t use wisely. I got the sense that he tended to be very conservative and look for players that might move quickly through the system hoping to supplement their low ceilings with toolsy Latin signings. Unfortunately the players he did draft had too many redundant skill sets ie no hit catchers, relief guys, etc. A lot of his flaws would have been made up for with 3 or 4 overslot picks each year.
with toolsy Latin signings
so explain the lack of high profile latin signings from 06-10…
again, the whole Omar/Latin thing is severely overblown
if Omar were to invest as much in latino prospects as people thought he did, we would have had Aroldis Chapman as our closer….not Frank Francisco
“Because Omar had a tendency to sign so many injury prone and/or over-the-hill players, they were usually worthless by the time their contracts with the Mets were up, and so Omar could rarely afford to offer them arbitration.”
explain why they rarely went overslot in rounds 2-20 ?
Non-sequitur much? LOL, what does your question have to do with my point that Omar didn’t understand or didn’t appreciate the tactic that Cashman and Epstein employed so often to get draft picks back that were lost by signing free agents? Was Omar’s love of older, end-to-the-line players just so strong that he let that trump ALL?
Again, that’s a total non-sequitur!
because that has absolutely NO EFFECT on rounds 2 to the end of the draft….
now back to the question….
explain why the mets rarely went above slot from rounds 2 to the end of the draft…
I’ll wait
You’re 1000% wrong. It has a ton of effect in regards to round 2 and sometimes even round 3 — in the context of the original study by Andre.
If you can’t see it, I don’t what to say other than I really pity you. You have my sympathies for your personal disabilities.
explain how signing a top free-agent prevents you from going overslot in the 3rd round of a draft…
Those are 2 different things, LMFAO. I was talking about Omar’s inability to regain draft picks because he always acquired so many over the hill players whom he couldn’t offer arbitration to and thereby recoup picks. You reply by talking about going over slot in the 2nd round. Going over slot has nothing to do with my point. My point would stand whether or not Omar went over slot. Duh!
ok….feel free to explain we rarely went overslot in the later portions of the draft…
Neither did the Angels, Braves, Padres, and many other teams. And the Braves have had a far superior farm system than the Mets.
Also, lol, the Padres from 2005-2010, when Sandy and Depo were there, had a more productive farm system than the Mets (using Andre’s method)!
Chew on that!
Stop using endless crutches to try to prop up Omar. Won’t work.
OK I’m beginning to feel really bad for you. Because of your disabilities. So here’s a hint: The Mets had ZERO draft picks in round 2 for years 2005 and 2010. That fact has everything to do with the point I was making and to which you quoted and replied to.
“I was talking about Omar’s inability to regain draft picks because he always acquired so many over the hill players whom he couldn’t offer arbitration to and thereby recoup picks.”
but when he did…like with wagner…he had to trade him off so freddie can buy you a new car…
we could’ve had another draft pick in 2010′s draft, but your personal connection got in the way
thanks !
well lets count how many picks they had from 2005-2010
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2005
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2006
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2007
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2008
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2009
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=nym&year=2010
and now see how many times in the later rounds did they go overslot…
o wait…silly me…it doesnt matter…
you have the inside scoop on how money is allocated…
and according to you….the mets couldnt go overslot in the 10th round of a draft b/c Omar used up all of his budget on the MLB side !!!
so no matter what facts i can come up with to show the mets have historically not invested in the draft….u can blame it on the gm spending on the team !!
YES !!!
Metro12 wins !!!
thank god we have you here to provide us with the inside scoop !!!
Wagner is just one player. He wouldn’t make up for all the other picks Omar threw away and never got back because he preferred useless and/or wheelchair players like Franco, Alou, Castilo, and El Duque.
Here’s the facts:
1) The Mets generally didn’t go over slot but did sometimes with players like Pelfrey, Harvey and Matz.
2) The Mets were not alone in their unwillingness to go way over slot. Neither did the Braves and teams like the Angels.
3) Omar had the ability to spend more on IFAs if he wanted to by not spending so much on the major league roster. The fact that he didn’t was his own fault. The fact that he made lackluster picks with the money he did spend is also his fault.
Those are he facts. But hey, don’t let the facts get in the way of your frequent useless rant & spam sessions or your butt kissing of Omar!
Franco???
he made around 1 mil per year ..we lost 0 draft picks for signing him….lmaoooo thats DJ Carrasco’s salary with double the output!!!
none of what u stated prevented us from spending overslot in the later rounds of a draft…
not one of those players made more than 7.5 mil per year…
keep swinging…
Here’s the facts:
1) The Mets generally didn’t go over slot but did sometimes with players like Pelfrey, Harvey and Matz.
what about those LATER ROUNDS….? you know…that place where prospects FALL because of signability issues…
2) The Mets were not alone in their unwillingness to go way over slot. Neither did the Braves and teams like the Angels
…and this has what to do with the wilpons being historically not willing to spend overslot in the later rounds? did the mets move to a smaller market and not tell me about it ?
3) Omar had the ability to spend more on IFAs if he wanted to by not spending so much on the major league roster. The fact that he didn’t was his own fault. The fact that he made lackluster picks with the money he did spend is also his fault.
Ahhh Yes !!! because YOU and YOU alone have the inside scoop on what Omar was able to do …and HIS INSIDE PERSONAL CONNECTIONS !
u think i have my head up his buttt…i think u have ur head in his lap !
>Those are he facts.
as supposed to she facts?
Maybe u meant to say THE FAX!
as in the the fax that you received from the wilpons thanking you for your support ?
Huh, you still don’t get it! It’s not necessarily about losing draft picks when you sign free agents. It’s about not being able to offer players (not necessarily FAs) arbitration when they leave — for a variety of reasons — and getting draft picks back. Geez. Go back to school, damaja!
Again over slot is a totalyl separate issue.
Here are the facts …
1) It matters little going over slot when you’ve lost a good bulk of your early round picks and haven’t received any back … LOL, the Mets had no second round pick in 2005 and 2010!
2) Many teams never went over slot and did far better than the Mets. Such as the Braves and the Padres under Sandy and Depo, LOL! What’s Omar’s excuse? Or are you admitting he can only do things when he overpays for everything?
If some GMs can succeed by not going over slot, why can’t Omar? He knew from the get go that the Wilpons generally wanted to stick to slot. That is not new. So he should have been smart like the Braves or the Padres or allocate more money to IFAs.
Your excuses for Omar are as pitiful as your illiteracy!
It matters little going over slot when you’ve lost a good bulk of your early round picks and haven’t received any back … LOL, the Mets had no second round pick in 2005 and 2010!
A good bulk?
the mets had around 120 draft picks from 2005-2010….
they lost like 2 in 2006, 1 in 2007 and 1 in 2009….and had the ability to go overslot on 116…and for the most part did not…
4 out of 120 = a good bulk ? i guess math wasnt your best subject huh…
and u are saying that not being able to allocate money on an early round draft pick prevents them from spending later???
2) Many teams never went over slot and did far better than the Mets. Such as the Braves and the Padres under Sandy and Depo,
so yes, we are admitting that mets historically even before Omar, do not go overslot in the later rounds
whether that produced better results is a seperate discussion…
i just need to make sure we have this point clear…
LOL! What’s Omar’s excuse? Or are you admitting he can only do things when he overpays for everything?
you mean like ike davis? ruben tejada? or daniel murphy? or matt harvey….very signable college players or cheap IFA’s?
yeah that makes sense !
Yikes, damaja. You are impossibly illiterate. what about :“early round” don’t you understand? In the context of lost draft picks due to FA signings and gained picks due to compensation, it normally means rounds 1-3.
they lost like 2 in 2006, 1 in 2007 and 1 in 2009….
Can’t count either? LOL. Nice try glossing over the losses! No, they lose just 4 those years. Omar lost 7 picks! 7 out of the first 3 rounds. Including 3 first round picks! That’s horrendous.
and u are saying that not being able to allocate money on an early round draft pick prevents them from spending later???
No.
so yes, we are admitting that mets historically even before Omar, do not go overslot in the later rounds
Can you find a single comment on this page saying otherwise?
The point is many teams draft well without going over slot. Why not Omar?
you mean like ike davis? ruben tejada? or daniel murphy? or matt harvey….very signable college players or cheap IFA’s?
No, I mean the farm system in general. It’s generally inferior to a lot of other teams and yet you cry like a little baby and make these lame excuses for Omar left and right.
Again, teams like the Padres and Braves produced better systems without going over slot. Why not Omar?
I knew when I saw 142 Sub messages in my inbox from Metsmerized that Metro was on a nightime propaganda raid…..
“Omar threw away and never got back because he preferred useless ”
Omar most certainly did get one of those 1st rounders back when Atlanta signed Glavine away from us.
If Yunel Escobars WAR is 18.5, mine is 80.8.
There must be a typo there, because Yunel’s numbers have all sorts of flaws & issues.
No typo. It’s bWar, not fWar which I think is slightly more accurate. Escobar has been a very productive player during his short career. The Braves would likely have kept him if not for what they perceived as attitude issues.
oh okay,
U figure out bWar and fWar and all kinds of WAR so u can run away to look at a calculation to rest your laurels on. The rest of us will talk about baseball based on our knowledge of the game.
Escobar is a good example of how valuable even a solid above average SS (or C or 2b for that matter) can be. And a reason why Gavin Cecchini would be a great draft pick if he can end up being a .750 OPS SS with average to slightly above average defense while a LF / RF like Courtney Hawkins has to become an .850+ OPS type bat to have a similar value.
If Lucas Duda were an average fielding SS, he would be a 2.5+ WAR player per season. Since he´s a poor fielding LF / 1bman, he really needs to hit to even be a neutral player. In spite of an OPS that was well over .100 points higher in 2012, Duda was worse than Jason Bay according to WAR.
Of course, I´m not very fond of WAR itself. The main reason being a flaw in the defensive part of the number as there´s no really reliable defensive stat available to the public for now.
According to defensive metrics, David Wright was the best defensive 3bman in Baseball in 2012 after being the worst in 2011 and 2010. While he was a bit better in 2012, he was neither the best nor worst in any of those seasons. So, individually, take these numbers with a lot of salt. However, the broader the data base, the less of a factor are individual problems.
And it is interesting that there appears to be some relation between draft success and teams winning games a few years later.
Obviously, besides the draft, a lot of success can also be acquired via trades or free agency – both major league and international. So, if you don´t do well in the draft, you need to do better in the other areas. Of course, if you are not able (or unwilling) to compete in one area, you need to do even better in the others.
That’s my problem with WAR as well. Also considering that I don’t think any defensive metric can measure 1B and Catcher accurately.
That being said I believe that the UZR creators caution using it on a year to year basis and say you should take 3 year averages.
‘That being said I believe that the UZR creators caution using it on a year to year basis and say you should take 3 year averages.’
My understanding as well.
It’s hard to grade a Met GM on drafts. This is an absolute fact they have not been able to spend much money on the draft. It’s disgusting to think a team in one of the biggest markets is always on the bottom half of the league in draft spending. They can certainly be graded for there bicks from the 3rd round on as well as intl signings. The problem with the intl signings is that they are not given a big budget so even there we bargin bin shopping. It sucks that our first round pick has to be a value pick as apposed to best player available. or even best player available & need. Either way last year we would have had Courtney Hawkins.
How come the Braves generally stayed under slot but had better drafts? And it’s just not true that Omar couldn’t go over slot. I believe Pelfrey, Harvey and Matz were all over-slot signings.
Not saying the Mets were big spenders during that time, but they weren’t cheapskates either.
there was an interview with Pedro Beato in 2006 where he said Omar wanted to give him 50K more, but the Wilpons turned him down.
and this is in the beginning when Omar supposedly had full autonomy….when the mets were flooded with cash…when they were still banking that Madoff money…
The last time the mets had a decent 2nd round pick was Todd Hundley and Dave madigan
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
Go year by year , round by round
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=NYM&draft_round=3&draft_type=junreg&
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=6&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=7&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=8&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=NYM&draft_round=9&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
I’m working on a tool that will export all that data into one big spreadsheet….which will have basically every player the mets have ever drafted, what round, if they were signed or not and their WAR
Post a link to prove that it was the Wilpons who told Omar not to add the extra money for Beato. You don’t even have the right year for him — he was drafted by the Mets in 2005, not 2006.
The Mets went over slot in 2005 for Pelfrey, the same year that Beato was drafted. It would be odd to go over slot with Pelfrey but not spend an extra 50 thousand, UNLESS there were concerns with Beato’s health OR Omar felt he otherwise wasn’t worth the extra money.
And what give you the idea that full autonomy means a GM can spend all they want, LOL? Under your definition, there isn’t a GM in baseball with full autonomy.
http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/boroughs/beato-iron-mets-pass-pedro-presses-article-1.617629
the interview was conducted in 2006….
“Beato, a 21-year-old righthander from Ridgewood, Queens, originally was selected by the Mets in the 17th round of the 2005 amateur draft after his senior year at Xaverian. Instead of signing Beato directly out of the draft, the Mets treated him as a “wait-and-see” prospect, meaning they held the rights to Beato until a week before the 2006 amateur draft and could therefore make an offer based on his PERFORMANCE this past season at St. Petersburg Community College.
He had an exceptional senior season, going 7-0 while allowing just 22 hits and seven earned runs in 48 innings with 56 strikeouts and nine walks. He followed that with a dominant year at St. Petersburg. Flashing a renewed velocity and sharp four-pitch repertoire, Beato went 6-3 with a 2.
75 ERA, 80 strikeouts and 23 walks in 78 2/3 innings.
The Mets seemingly saw all the goods they needed from their “wait-and-see” draftee, but when it came time to go to the bargaining table, they didn’t offer Beato the $1 million signing bonus he was looking for. The Mets wouldn’t budge from their offer of $750,000 and Beato, who refused to give the team a hometown discount, said the lowball tactics were a low blow; he’d heard from scouts who observed him in Florida that he was doing well and would be signed. “I heard if it was up to them, Omar Minaya and the scouts, they would have given me the money. … (Fred) Wilpon didn’t want to let it out,” Beato said, referring to the Mets general manager and owner, respectively. “But I did what I had to do.
my bad, it wasnt 50k…it was 250k…
the point remains.
The fantasy that Omar had a boatload of cash to spend is exactly that…a fantasy…Omar had to produce talent on the MLB level AND rebuild the minors on a shoe-string budget.
If you look at all the high profile latin america signings…the only high profile big signings were in his first 6 months ( fernando martinez + pena ). From 2006-2010, he was going through garbage bins looking for gold coins.
and still he was able to get MLB level talent in Tejada, and ( possibly ) Familia + Mejia + Valdespin + Vicente Lupo.
Omar should have a statue outside of Citfield for the job he did with this team
UTTER absolute nonsense! … this idea that Omar didn’t have a boatload to spend in his early years as Mets GM. He had a Fort Knox treasury to spend compared to the peanuts Sandy was given to spend when he first got to the Mets. Just wanted to get that out of the way because that is a glaring FALSE impression you just tried to make.
As for Beato in particular, are you nuts? The Mets were offering $750,000 for a 17th round pick which is WAY over slot. Maybe they didn’t want to give him an extra quarter million because the Mets scouts and Omar knew he was coming off TJ surgery and felt he just wasn’t worth it. The blame put on Wilpon here is from Beato only. And yes, the Mets generally adhered to slot BUT NOT ALWAYS. And Beato is an example where they actually went over slot but he was just too greedy. And guess what? Given how poor his career has turned out so far, someone in the Mets organization made the right choice.
the only high profile big signings were in his first 6 months ( fernando martinez + pena ).
Thanks for proving once again your dismal grasp of the facts. Pena was signed in June of 2006, LOL. And then there was Urbina who was signed for over a million in 2009. Make up another good one!
Yes, Omar should have a statue of himself outside of Citi Field and it should be a BUST! Because that’s essentially what he was as GM of the Mets.
You really are delusional.
The mets from 2004-2010 ranked almost dead last in IFA spending.
when u can pick the names on 1 hand…how on earth can you say Omar had alot of money to spend in that department ???
and yes, Beato was the one who said it…did you expect Omar to say that the owners were not willing to give him cash?
again…a team that is raking in the dough, with MADOFF MONEY…and still historically did not go over-slot in the later rounds….this is irrelevant on who the GM was ….
but yes, lets pretend that the mets were at the top of the list in terms of IFA and draft spending..
than when i prove you are wrong…you will ask for the secret tape showing the wilpons telling omar not to spend…
because the mets have always been known to spend heavy on the draft and IFA….if they didnt do it…it HAD to be Omar’s fault…no way is there a commonality there !!!
YES !!!!
Metro12 is at it again !!!!
Maybe Omar was going to use his magical personal connection powers when these players became free-agents later !!!
you know…the same personal connection that had Beltran running to the Yankees for less money!
o wait…
Learn to read damaja. No one said Omar had a ton of money to spend on IFA. I said that he just had a ton of money to spend. And he did. In your post when you said Omar didn’t have a lot of money to spend, you didn’t specify where. So the assumption is that you were talking in general terms.
And here’s how it usually works — the GM is given an overall budget to spend on the roster plus drafting and IFAs. He decides where to allocate the money. FACT IS, Omar had roughly 50-60 million to spend on additional payroll acquisitions PLUS drafting and IFAs each of his first few years as GM. Sandy has had less than half of that.
As for Beato, no I don’t expect Omar to say it was the owners, but it would not be uncommon for someone else to say it was the owners. For example, an anonymous scout or person in the front office.
As for Beltran, he ran to the Yankees because he idolized them and Williams.
So, learn to read, damaja. And get your facts straight for once.
>Learn to read damaja. No one said Omar had a ton of money to spend on IFA.
But the discussion was IFA spending…learn to stay on topic !
I said that he just had a ton of money to spend. And he did. In your post when you said Omar didn’t have a lot of money to spend, you didn’t specify where. So the assumption is that you were talking in general terms.
we were talking about IFA spending….not how much he could spend on bat boys, paper towels, gas money and a closer. the new assumption is that your reading comprehension skills need more work than Josh Thole’s catching
>And here’s how it usually works — the GM is given an overall budget to spend on the roster plus drafting and IFAs.
Really…I know it might work like that at a pizzeria….but do you have any proof that this is the way the Wilpons work ???
o wait..you said USUALLY…meaning…you have no proof and this is just some BS you are pulling out of your nose…
awesome…
>He decides where to allocate the money.
except for that one time in band camp when the wilpons forced him to trade wagner to save a million bucks instead of offering him arb ( wagner HIMSELF said he had a handshake deal with freddie coupons in 2009 )
the red sox offered wagner arbitration….and basically traded cris carter for wagner + a draft pick!
but i guess its omar’s fault he couldnt recoup those draft picks
>FACT IS, Omar had roughly 50-60 million to spend on additional payroll acquisitions
really? 50-60 ? is that cumulative over the course of 5 years? cuz i clearly remember Jeff Wilpon saying that they had to trade Cliff Floyd or Mike Cameron before they can sign Delgado in January of 2005…if Omar had 50-60 mil to spend….why couldnt he increase payroll by a mere 13 mil in 2005?
esp with piazza’s salary coming off the books the next year….
that makes sense !!!
PLUS drafting and IFAs each of his first few years as GM. Sandy has had less than half of that.
ahhhh…so according to you…its one big whole budget and the GM gets to slice it up anyway he wants !!!
your spidey senses told you that right ?
As for Beato, no I don’t expect Omar to say it was the owners, but it would not be uncommon for someone else to say it was the owners. For example, an anonymous scout or person in the front office.
except…it wasnt an anonymous source…it was the PLAYER !!!!
do you need anymore proof ?
a secret wire tap confession?
>As for Beltran, he ran to the Yankees because he idolized them and Williams.
wait…so Omar’s “personal connection” was trumped by Beltran idolizing the team most likely to spend the most money?
Beltran also idolized the Pirates and Clemente…but Beltran wasnt asking to go to Pitt for less money now was he !
>So, learn to read, damaja. And get your facts straight for once.
Facts…like Omar’s “personal connection” to a player that appeared on a scouting list !!!!
if those are facts, im afraid to ask what is fantasy to u
This is what you said:
“The fantasy that Omar had a boatload of cash to spend is exactly that…a fantasy…Omar had to produce talent on the MLB level AND rebuild the minors on a shoe-string budget.”
You are talking about BOTH the major league team and the amateur level market.
Talking about reading comprehension skills? No one mentioned bat boys or any other expenses like paper towels. DUH! You are impossibly illiterate!
And yes, Omar is given an overall budget. He can shift money around if he wishes and he’s talked about that. Sandy has talked about it too. Do you have any evidence that ALL teams don’t operate that way? Of course they do. The owner doesn’t care where you spend the money as long as you stay within budget.
Trading Wagner to save money is not allocating dollars but recouping money already spent. Again, learn to read. Your illiteracy is appalling.
The 50-60 million is for EACH of Omar’s first few years and includes the major league roster, plus the draft and IFAs.
ahhhh…so according to you…its one big whole budget and the GM gets to slice it up anyway he wants !!!
More or less, except that with the new CBA, starting with 2012, teams could no longer spend what they wanted on the draft and IFAs. So, yes, that’;s the way it was up until 2012.
except…it wasnt an anonymous source…it was the PLAYER !!!!
LOL, yeah, EXACTLY! Only an idiot would think an unsigned prospect would be privy to exactly what the owners say!
wait…so Omar’s “personal connection” was trumped by Beltran idolizing the team most likely to spend the most money?
Yay! Got something right once! But you left out his adulation of Williams.
Beltran also idolized the Pirates and Clemente…but Beltran wasnt asking to go to Pitt for less money now was he !
LOL. Got that 1000% wrong! Yeah, he idolized the Pirates so much he totally dissed them and pissed them off when he said it was a disgrace the Mets lost to them.
FACTS == Like not saying Bourn played in only 53 games in 2011 LOL … and not saying the attendance rankings on a page are payroll rankings!!! And not saying Sandy never switched out one coach!
Get your facts straight, damaja. It’s really pitiful how you maul them.
totally dissed them?
he ripped into his team for getting swept by the team with the worst record in baseball.
but ok, yes Beltran disrespected a team he idolizes for having the patron saint of PR ( clemente ) by saying his team should not be getting swept by them
just ignore 20 year bottom basement status
now back to that list….
IOW, your original non-specific statement that Omar didn’t have a lot of money to spend is still UTTER NONSENSE and the biggest boatload of cow sh*t to come out of your mouth.
ahhh yes…because not spending in the draft or IFA is clearly a sign Omar was spending his money on taking Beltran out to lunch
and of course…you are the only human being outside of the mets organization that knows exactly how their GM is allowed to allocate money !
wow metsie…maybe you really are one of the wilpons !!!
even matt cerrone has been scratching his head on that topic for years ….
but no…Mr.Metsie has all the inside scoop…
No, it’s common sense and common knowledge, and you have little of either.
Again, up to 2012 and before the new CBA, teams could spend what they wanted on IFAs. Teams could also spend what they wanted on the draft, though the Wilpons did generally try to adhere to slot (but not always). And they weren’t alone. Starting in 2012, it’s a new game and now all teams are limited int he draft and with IFAs. But when Omar was here, he had more freedom and MORE money to spend than Sandy has ever had up to now.
And ugh, don’t call me metsie ever again. That’s quite a disgusting insult!
the wilpons havent drafted overslot since the late 80′s…
and that was with high payrolls, low payrolls, in between payrolls…
of course when Omar is here…all of a sudden, he has all the autonomy in the world to spend as he wishes…
because metro12′s common sense aka speculation tells him so
YES !
that makes sense !!!
Wrong again. Omar drafted over slot on numerous occasions when he was GM — Harvey, Pelf, and Matz. And he offered Beato over slot money.
Try to get your facts straight.
And, lol, no GM in baseball has ever had full autonomy to spend as he wished. That includes Omar.
They are given a budget. They can choose to use it how they wish. Too bad Omar skimped on the farm system and draft!
…Heyward’s better than Ike because he’s a much better defender and base runner. Don’t see how that’s so hard to figure out…
So far in their short careers, Heyward has definitely outperformed Ike. However Ike’s career was seriously derailed by that freakish ankle injury in 2011. I’m not too sure he doesn’t have he potential to outperform Heyward in some years in the near future.
As for Ike’s defense, it regressed in 2012. But, again, it could be because of the lost time and some after-effects of the ankle injury. Because generally, he was a stellar defender at first base prior to the injury. Or it could also have been due to his struggles at the plate early in the season. I think for some players, they let their hitting struggles impact their fielding.
First baseman are a dime a open. Outfielders and athletes like Heyward are not. It is not even close given Heywards performance thus far and his much higher ceiling
I wasn’t talking ceiling. Pelfrey supposedly had a high ceiling. How did that work out?
I was just talking about performance. And while Heyward has an edge, they’re not that far apart if you account for the fact that Heyward has 559 more plate appearances than Ike. Prorate Ike’s WAR to account for the difference in plate appearances, and you have 13.7 WAR for Heyward vs. 9.6 WAR for Ike over 3 seasons. Fairly close.
Again, not saying Heyward hasn’t been better. Just saying given Ike’s injuries and fewer games played, they aren’t that far apart. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Ike didn’t put up a higher WAR than Heyward during at least a few of the next half dozen or so seasons. I would be willing to bet on it.
Are 5-6 WAR first basemen really all that plentiful? How many first basemen do you think had a 5+ fWAR in 2012?
Ike was on pace for a 5-6 WAR in 2011 before the ankle injury.
Just like lord Liarson metro loves his stats and fails the baseball test. Well what else could he do; he gets his knowledge from the PR faxes from the liarson offices.
LOL, could there be a more USELESS poster here on MMO? Doubt it. I laugh at you every time I see one of your totally lame posts.
most folks are laughing at your feeble attempts to defend your lord and savior Sandy Alderson
Most here are ROTFLOL at how blindly you defend Omar and how far up his ass your head is stuck.
ahhh yes….however it was you who knew about beltran’s secret personal connection with omar…
you know stuff about omar that even his wife doesnt…
That’s speculation on my part. That’s different than you continually stating false things as though they were fact … and you prostrating yourself at Omar’s feet day in and day out!
yes and you claiming to know the inner workings of how Omar was allowed to spend on the draft is a FACT !!!
Proven by absolutely NO ONE ONE EARTH BUT YOU !!!!
lmao
Nope!
1) It came out of Omar’s mouth. He said once that he wasn’t concerned about all the lost picks due to signing free agents because he would just allocate more resources to IFAs. His own words.
2) It’s common sense. No owner is going to tell a GM not to reallocate funds to an IFA. What you are saying doesn’t even make sense.
Oh, but nonsense is just par for the course for damaja!
I thought you said you didnt take anything a GM said in public seriously?
or is that just reserved for when Sandy talks ?
Well, that’s what he said. If you don’t want to believe it, that’s your choice. In this case, because that’s how all teams operate, there is no reason to think he wasn’t telling the truth.
but according to you, no GM really tells the truth…so…
how do you know thats how they operate?
o and as for that list…
I see Chase Headley…Mat Latos…and nothing else…
how about u ?
Damaja, I would ignore this guy. Yesterday we were talking about the draft and the CURRENT philosophy, and when he couldn’t win the argument he just brang up Minaya just to disdain him. That was the second time he did that this month with me. I think he hates him and not just because he was a bad GM. More to it than that. I’d stay away because he’s nothing but trouble.
When one wants to talk about how good a player is or isn’t, or what his potential could be, or how he has contributed or hurt his club overall, it is not necessary to be like Mr. Spock who would provide an answer down to the most insignificant, infinite detail. That is my take (as many know) on WAR.
In all due respect Andre, there are three total questions to be asked in order to make the first question you raise more relevant and that first question in itself about inheritance needs to be revised in order for it to be seen beyond what is really just a superficial mathematical discussion. It cannot be looked at in black and white.
That first question at hand should really be reworded to ask how much any new general manager SHOULD EXPECT from his inheritance? Did Sandy get less, about the same or more than others who were also fired (that is important because when one resigns or retires he is not being shown the door and thus the owners were happy with his work)?
What he got so far from the minor league system he inherited is a young first baseman, second baseman and shortstop along and three-fifths of our young starting rotation to date plus potentials in Mejia, Familia, McHugh and others along with the gold glove candidate Duda (just wanted to see if you were paying attention, gang LOL – no, potential power hitting outfielder in Duda). Even if none of them turn out to be super star quality but good quality as we’ve seen is that about what any new GM taking over for a dismissed one should expect?
The second question is of time. What I don’t understand is why some would say the “nucleus” is not yet ready and thus it is not time for Sandy to go supplement them through free agency and trades yet at the same time they are ready enough to be compared to in terms of WAR?
Why compare them as a whole instead of individually? Some develop immediately like Harper, Strausberg Heyward, Posey, etc. yet others take a few years to turn into players like Cain (three). How many many average, dependable players took a few years to begin showing results like Ludwick (seven) and Bourn (three) and how many start out well and begin to go downward after a few seasons thus no longer being the players they were in their earlier years like Uggla or McCann? And how many have a great season or two maybe two or three years into their career and then fizzle out like Janish?
Notice I only referred to players on 2012 national league playoff teams. The point is that it is impossible to make such blanket statements about an inherited minor league system simply because one has to look at the long-term success to see how good, bad or average it really was. As for a period of years the GM had to select draft picks, those who make it take longer to develop than others, some start off well and then fall off while others have one or two career years and nothing more. And then there are those who need more years in the minor leagues before going to the big show than others before they are called up and go on to have good careers.
Then, the third question – which ties in directly to the first – is the importance of the minor league system itself in lieu of the other picture. How much of a good minor league system did a general manager need to inherit in lieu of the players he inherited on the major league level to build a contender?
How many general managers can say they inherited an all-star shortstop, a very good third baseman, a dependable center fielder, a good hitting second baseman (who had to learn a new position, granted), a rejuvinated right fielder coming off injury, a Cy Young award winner, one of the better closers in baseball along with those young players inherited from the farm system? Often, one depends less on the farm system due to the players already on hand.
And as pointed out, teams like the Giants and Nationals who were perennial losers didn’t sit around waiting for the young kids to develop – they went out and signed free agents and traded away prospects as well – the three combined elements required to put together a successful team.
So when looking at the minor league system that Sandy was left with cannot be looked at in simple terms of WAR or even at the development level at this point. Draft selections from the last two years of Omar’s term are only coming up now. Earlier picks like Davis and Duda have shown the potential to be good, dependable players yet might take an extra season or so compared to Heyward, Harper, etc. Neise and Gee are showing they are getting there.
Five or six years from now – that is when one can look back. The Mets have to be given a chance for those in Omar’s latter years to close the door on the decision. And that final answer depends upon a mixture of things which includes the amount of spots one needed to fix on the major league level. All I can say is that Sandy did create those opportunities for so many – but the argument is whether or not he really had to.
How bad was Omar’s drafting/farm strategies? Consider the Padres from 2005 though 2010, a period that encompassed both Sandy’s and Depos’ time there. Using André Dobiey’s methodology — which, again, I think is nearly ideal for this exercise — the Mets fall far short of the Padres too.
Cumulative bWAR 2005-2010:
Mets — 30.6
Padres — 53.9
The only thing I did differently from Andre is that I left out negative WAR for both teams. To some extent, negative WAR can be controlled by simply not using the player so much. To the extent that some teams do use inferior players, it may be because of some favoritism on the part of the manager — or the player may have just been filling in for an injured starter, in which case it’s unfair to consider him in the equation since he was an emergency use. I just wanted to see how the two systems produced in terms of positive value and wins.
Put another way, all teams will use their better players as much as they can. But some teams are forced to use inferior players from their farm system more than others because of either bad luck or lack of resources.
So Omar’s strategy has fallen short of the Nats, Braves, and the Padres, under Sandy and Depo. I hope Vinny is doing the work on the rest of the teams so we can get a clearer picture of how Omar compared to everyone else.
lets name some of the players that make up that 53.9 WAR and their individual bwars please
Go ahead. No one’s stopping you!
Hopefully you know how to read a BR page by now!
Im not as familiar with Sandy’s picks as you are…you are the one who already did the “math”
show us your illustrious formula
dont worry…
I’ll wait ( Katt Williams voice )
Um, Andre gave his formula in his original post. Do I need to spell it out for you?
I used Andre’s formula except that I left out negative WAR.
ok, i dont need the formula..
i just need the list of draft picks YOU used to come up with THAT number…
Here’s 2005. Just keep going through the years to get ALL the names:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=SDP&year_ID=2005&draft_type=junreg&
FYI – By February of 2010, Sandy had announced he wasnt coming back to SD for the 2010 season and started working for the league…how does he get credit for the 2010 draft in June?
….your math is already off…like most of your “facts”
list out Sandy’s draft picks from 2005-2006-2007-2008-2009
Yikes! Another reading brain fart by damaja. What about “both Sandy’s and Depos’ time there” don’t you understand???
Really, this is getting ridiculous. If you don’t even take the time to read the post, no wonder you can’t coherently reply to it!
Try again … using your brain this time!
ahh they combine forces to be as one
kinda like matt wheeler or zach harvey
awesome…
so cool, lets include Depo’s 2010 draft in the mix lol
still waiting on how we got to 53.9 on that war scale…
JDD don’t even waste your time with this WAR Hog, bWAR hog, -WAR Hog.
He’s just a guy who’s trying to rationalize his hate for Minaya to support his fraudulent love for an old man with white hair who is a baseball executive. Different strokes for different folks i guess.
Reality the nucleus of the rebuilding plan is provided by Omar Minaya. Period.
The stars used to get Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Syndagaard were provided by Omar Minaya. Period.
That’s it. The foundation of this current team is built on fruits of Minaya’s tenure here, including the acquisition of the new prospects. Nobody can take that away.
lets not give him an opp to sway the discussion
he put up a number.
53.9
he has a formula from Andre…
now lets see how he came up with that number…
we are waiting
are you counting David Freese too ?
Did you not read Andre’s original post? Tsk-tsk. See, damaja, you always inject yourself into these threads without doing proper reading, and never understand fully what you are replying too. You waste everyone’s time with your baby antics.
Andre counted ALL players drafted by a team, whether or not they were eventually traded. I used Andre’s method.
Yes I saw he added Drew Butera as a negative against the mets…even though he never played a game as a met…
the formula is not an accurate way of measuring a productive farm system. If the Mets had traded off David Wright in 2002 when he was in A ball, the gm gets crucified
in your warped world, Sandy gets credit for David Freese even when David Freese doesnt contribute for Sandy !
LMAO
Since we’re also counting Joe Smith’s or Mike Carp’s career totals who were both traded by the Mets or Tom Milone’s numbers with the A’s as part of the Gio Gonzalez trade for the Nats, yes, everybody who SIGNED with his original team out of the draft counts. Players who didn’t sign don’t belong, thus no Beato for the 2006 Mets and no Roger Clemens for the 1981 Mets.
Again, WAR is far from a perfect number. Yet, the broader the sample size, the better as an indicator it gets. And pretty much it’s a useful tool to evaluate organizations objectively without having to go into circumstancial evidence. The number wasn’t created to make anyone look good or bad. Just try to get an objective assessment of things. And pretty much it shows that the young talent left behind wasn’t all that good. Not as terrible as Adam Rubin and others liked to claim. But certainly slightly below average.
Combined with a high payroll for a .500 team and an ownership group in financial distress ( which also hurt Omar Minaya of course during his final two years as GM), it just shows why we’re entering Year 3 of a rebuilding here in 2013…
Do you realize Andre’s original article was comparing Omar’s full years to other team’s regardless if they had FO changes or not?
That’s the whole point. The fact that Sandy and Depo just happened to be in SD at that exact same time is just irony — and quite interesting!
You can’t whine about i now and pick and choose your data sets like you always want to do. LOL, all you like to do is look at Wright’s second half stats. LMFAO!
yup in sure its irony
thats awesome
now how about that list of awesome players sandy + depo drafted…
Just following Andre’s lead. You can’t pick and choose data sets like you always try to do to fit your agenda.. You want to see all 150+ players drafted by Sandy and Depo in SD? LOL
following andre’s lead?
what does that even mean???
“The only thing I did DIFFERENTLY from Andre is that I LEFT OUT negative WAR for both teams. To some extent, negative WAR can be controlled by simply not using the player so much. To the extent that some teams do use inferior players, it may be because of some favoritism on the part of the manager — or the player may have just been filling in for an injured starter, in which case it’s unfair to consider him in the equation since he was an emergency use. I just wanted to see how the two systems produced in terms of positive value and wins.”
lmaooooo
for you to do that…you had to already had have a list of players he drafted..
cmon champ…i know you can do it…
be brave…
show us that list !!!
so supposedly, you did all those calculations, left out certain numbers that didnt fit your narrative…and just dumped the data…
i want you to list out the players you used…
I listed EVERY player from the 2005-2010 SD drafts who had a positive WAR. You can look it up yourself.
Just because you are too lazy, that’;s not my problem.
And, again, the negative WAR wouldn’t impact the results much, but just because you are such a baby, I will add the negative WAR in later and put down the results.
I will add the negative WAR in later and put down the results.
while ur at it…why dont u just show us the names u use….
copy
+
paste
its not that hard…
( something you are probably used to hearing already)
Negative WAR now done and included (see post below). Omar comes out worse! Be careful what you wish for!
Why dont you just list Sandy’s draft picks for us in San Diego? Why do you keep ignoring his question? List them right here.
What do you mean list “all Sandy’s picks?” You mean all 150+ picks over those 5 years? LOL. How is that relevant. And if you want to see them, go to BR and look up all 150 picks yourself. Need a link?
How is a list of players used to come up with a stat relevant ???
do you ever go grocery shopping?
when you get your receipt…it has a list of items that are used to come up with a total price
In your case 53.9
lets see the items on your receipt ( i am calling BS in case you havent noticed )
please prove me wrong
I beg you
Why didn’t you say that? You and Marx just asked for a list of Sandy’s picks, LOL. Anyway, because you are so inept, here is the list for 2005. When you are done with 2005, use the pull down menu to see 2006, and so forth. You do know now to use a pull-down menu, don’t you?
Can you do ANYTHING?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=SDP&year_ID=2005&draft_type=junreg&
I see Chase Headley
I see Mat Latos…
I dont see anyone else worth mentioning…
do you ???
I see everyone Andre’s methodology was designed to see!
I see 2 players, 1 isnt even there anymore…( latos )
2 never played there
on another note… i had no idea Sandy traded Freese for Jim Edmonds !!!
wow…
even more of a wow if you counted Freese’s numbers for him !
If you only see 2 players, then you need glasses bad. There are more than 2 players from the 2005 draft counted.
nope…i see alot of garbage…only 2 players even worth mentioning…
please list the guys YOU feel are worth mentioning…
and i just proved that andre’s stats are not even worth mentioning as they can include players who were never even signed by the club…
we have would have Rafael Palmiero and Roger Clemens counting towards our WAR
you are better off just naming the guys you feel are worthy of showing up on this thread…
you have put more effort into dodging this very easy list of players to name than into just simply naming them
2005- Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Chase Headley, Cesar Ramos. 2006- Matt Latos, David Freese(WS MVP 2011), Wade LeBlanc. 2007-Cory Luebke. 2008-Logan Forsythe, Nick Vincent , Brad Brach, Jaff Decker 2010 #82 Prospect, Jason Kipnis (did not sign) 2009- Miles Mikolas. 2010- Josh Spence, Jedd Gyorko 2012 #98 Prospect.
Mets
2005-Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell, Thole. 2006-Joe Smith, Daniel Murphy. 2007-Eddie Kunz, Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee, Robert Carson. 2008-Ike Davis, Kirk Nieuwenhuis. 2009- No MLB players yet. 2010- Matt Harvey, Josh Edgin.
If Sandy left SD a Mess than Omar left the Mets a mess. I don’t see how the Mets outshined the Padres during that span.
wait…you cant count freese’s WAR towards that 53.9….
Cesar Ramos barely played for SDP and when he did he was terrible…he’s a RAY…
sorry…but no one counts zach wheeler’s stats towards the giants…or Howard Johnson’s towards the Tigers….or Kazmir’s towards the mets…
lol logan forsythe ???
Again, go back and read Andre’s original article. Shame on you for failing to do so.
Fonzie is simply adhering to Andre’s original methodology.
Andre refers to a COMPLETELY subjective notion of a “difference-maker”
Ike Davis hitting 30+ HR is not a difference maker…?
counting players’s stats who never once wore your uniform…
OK !!!!
I guess the Mets really had 13 no-hitters all those years…
thanks Nolan
special shout out to David Cone, Doc Gooden, Tom Seaver and all the other met pitchers who gave us no-hitters after they left !!!!
money well invested !
When Andre did his calculations, he used ALL players drafted by the team during that period. I used Andre’s exact same methodology, with the exception of the negative WAR.
and Andre’s numbers included people who were traded before they produced a single stat…
Jim Edmonds had a sub 0 WAR in 2007 + 2008….
so if Omar traded Ike Davis for Alfonso Soriano…and Ike Davis goes on to hit 800 HR..and Soriano puts up -0.1 WAR in his 2 seasons….
you still count Ike’s stats towards Omar’s !!
YES !!!!!!!
right so being able to count a player who never played for your team, who you traded for a player who contributed NEGATIVE WAR is an accurate reflection of a productive minor league system?
then you liked Andre’s formula so much, you had to take out all the negative information in it…
Do you realize how PATHETIC you look right now?
According to his formula, ROGER CLEMENS would count towards our draft…
how about u just name some names
But you didn’t USE dooby’s method….You removed names from the list!
Which means if the Padres had MORE negatice WAR players than the Mets you left our HALF thier picks…..
You keep asking everyone to look at Andre’s post but you didn’t USE his formula!
Which is why everyone wants you to list the names you COUNTED in your tweak.
As for using WAR at all your just using a Metric that is 1) Awful and 2) gives advantage to SD because they made thier picks earlier and due to the fact they were a worse team probably started a lot of them earlier than we started ours!
I didn’t use WAR Metro12 did. I listed the names of players drafted while SA was with SD. It doesn’t matter if any of those players were traded or not. If Ike Davis gets traded tommorow I gaurantee you’ll be counting him as an Omar pick even if he goes on to win MVP’s elsewhere. I look at those names and nobody can convince me the Mets did better during the years 05-10.
well u stepped into the middle of a discussion, you should know what we are talking about before u start assuming..
and if Ike is traded AFTER he hits 800 HR as a Met, thats different than getting traded before he ever steps foot in a met uniform…
sorry…we would look silly counting kazmir’s 2006 WAR towards our team…
Did you or did you not ask for the picks made during Sandy’s tenure in SD? It doesn’t matter if they were traded away or not. It shows that they drafted well while he was there. Just like Oakland drafted well while he was there. The man knows how to put together a farm system.
Did you or did you not follow the context of our discussion?
and no, by no means can you count a player you traded off…
thats like detroit getting credit for HOJO’s 1989 season…
specifically, before they donned your uniform…
worse yet, they were traded for a person who put up a NEGATIVE WAR !!!!
HoJo was drafted by Detroit, of course Detroit gets credit for drafting him. It was their scouts that acknowledged his talents. The Mets picked one slot in front of HoJo and took John Violette so they could’ve drafted him if they wanted to.
LMAO
so trading off a player you just draft is proof that you have a productive farm system !!
OK !!!
Yes it is. If you draft well and us those players to make trades it doesn’t take away the fact that the team drafted well. Fact of the matter is the Pods drafted well. Unfortunately for Met fans not too many teams were knocking down our door to trade for players from our farm system.
Let me just quickly show how misleading that is.
Nick Hundley’s WAR: 6.0
Matt Harvey’s WAR: 1.1
Do you think Hundley(who hit in the .150′s last year), is MORE valuable than one of the most promising starters in the NL? I don’t.
Again, Vinny — and I said this before to you — this type of study is NOT designed to compare player A vs. player B. It is to compare the overall value of a farm system vs. another team’s during a specific period of time.
overall value?
that would start and begin with the players right?
unless you are talking about the cheerleaders, hot dog vendors, and mascots …
that list…
are you that scared to come up with it ?
You are the genius who came up with the number based on an altered formula ( leaving OUT negative information you didnt want included )
I see Chase Headley…who after breaking into the league at 23…JUST turned the corner….he is turning 29…
I see Mat Latos….good pitcher…traded off before he could add up big WAR for the Padres…
I see David Fr…
wait…
is that the same David Freese from STL ?
hopefully you are not counting his MLB WAR towards the Padres…
he was traded as a minor leaguer for Jim Edmonds, an aging OF on the decline who hit a scorching .178 for them after the trade…
Jim put up a -1 WAR for the Padres in 2008…
not sure what -1 WAR comes up to in bWar …
but i know you cant count David Freese’s stats with STL towards SDP
ok…thats all i see…
Chase…Mat……
anything more?
I used the same methodology as Andre. Leaving out negative WAR is a minor tweak; the basic method remains the same.
Moreover, if I counted negative WAR, the outcome would be almost the same. It certainly wouldn’t make the Mets system over that period of time look better than SD’s.
Don’t cry just because Omar comes out looking bad.
So did you use Freese’s numbers towards the Padres ?
Is he listed on the page I linked to?
Are you totally blind too? If he’s on the page, he’s included. That’s my point.
awesome…now our most productive draft pick in the past 40 years was Roger Clemens
( 133 WAR )
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=NYM&year_ID=1981&draft_type=junreg&
No, you don’t count players who never sign.
ummm yes you can….if u were to compare cashen to alderson from 80-84…
rafael palmeiro and clemens and their WAR come up as mets
No, you don’t. Andre only counted players who signed. So that’s what I counted.
I updated the numbers to include negative WAR. Guess what? Omar comes out even worse, lol.
Updated post is right above (for some reason that’s where new posts are going).
It also includes a link to the names counted in the calculation, in case you need the link again.
Again, I followed the methodology Andre used EXACTLY. If you don’t like it, I suggest you do a study of your own and present it to the MMO community. If you dare.
I don’t think it’s fair that a bad player can be ranked higher than a potentially great player just because he’s played in more games.
I think that’s completely unfair, and it’s the wrong way to look at it.
We’re not ranking player A vs. player B. If you want to do that, that’s your choice, Vinny. But the only way to evaluate 2 systems over a period of time is to look at total output (production). WAR gives you that way to measure production.
As I said, if you don’t like it, come up with a better way to do it!
I see Chase Headley
I see Mat Latos…
I dont see anyone else worth mentioning…
do you ???
yup you are scared to name names…
the hilarious part is seeing you squirm to list players you already referred to in other discussions..
are you THAT desperate to cover for Sandy ????
I already know these names…i just want to see YOU list them here…
Hint: Every name with a positive WAR was counted. It’s in black and white. Why do I need to type every name. Only a moron couldn’t read that page. I know you had difficulty reading a BR page before, but this is too easy!
Are you that much of a baby?
BTW, Fonzie already took the time to list them. You should be thankful that he took the time to compensate for you molasses mind.
I’ve read the page….and im pretty familiar with their drafts…
im still not sure why you cant just rattle off more than 3 names…
cmon…just once
Here…I’ll just name some mets drafted in that time…
Niese
Murphy
Ike
Harvey
Duda
Edgin
Pelfrey
Your turn
Right so name the names of the players with NEGATIVE war for both the mets and SD so we can see who had MORE negative WAR players that would have showed they were equal in picking or maybe even that the Mets were better from a WAR perspective than SD….
There is a REASON you didn’t count negative war Metro…
Because then the numbers are not as lopsided as your pretending they are!
Not just that…but if u take away David Freese’s numbers…and replace them with the guy he was traded for ( jim edmonds),
David Freese has a 8.5 WAR….take that away….and replace it with Jim Edmonds’s -0.1 WAR !!
Incredibly, Sandy traded a kid hitting .302 with 17 HR for an older more expensive declining CF hitting .252 with 12 HR
Now thats a productive way to use your farm system !!!!
While DePodesta certainly had an input in the SD drafts ( though Towers as GM and Fuson as the scouting director had the final say), I still don’t understand why any player transactions that were either beneficial or hurt the Padres in that time frame are related to Alderson.
HE NEVER WAS THE PADRES GM !
It’s like blaming whoever was running business administration for the 2002 Montreal Expos for the Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips trade.
And considering circumstances, one can’t even really blame Omar Minaya for that trade either as he was facing contraction by the end of that season.
Neither did that trade disqualify Omar from becoming Mets GM under total different circumstances nor does how Alderson ran the SD business administration disqualify him from being Mets GM ( and chief restricturing officer)…
Everyone who fits Andre’s methodology was included.
Except anyone with Negative WAR…..
Who had more players DELETED from the list the mets or Padres?
Omar actually came out worse when I included negative WAR. Be careful what you wish for!
Obviously players drafted and developed in the first 3 years of such a study should generally have more value than younger players procured in the more recent years. John Lannan has a higher WAR than Bryce Harper. And Mike Pelfrey has a higher WAR than Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey combined. For now. Probably not two years from now anymore.
Heck, HS draftees of 2009 and 2010 don’t figure to have even reached the majors yet. Of course the Mets rarely drafted HS players during that era, so Steve Matz and Darrell Ceciliani probably have the best shot from that time to still make it out of HS.
I just have to assume that using stats evolved with WAR, etc. is just another language in explaining what many of us would do in terms of observation and judgement.
Do think the question of the farm system under Omar needs a few more years before the issue can be closed. For the Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, Craig Kimbrels and Justin Heywards there are also the Chris Coghlans, Geovany Sotos, Andrew Baileys, Dontrelle Willises, Bobby Crosbys and Angel Berroas.
And one does not have to have a great crop over the years but a good crop. After all, the prospects might not have had the highest ranking in whatever statistical analysis one wants to conjure up but a few more dependable kids blending in as one could be more a force to be tangled with than a team with a few highly productive ones.
So again, both the traditional and advanced statistical analysis are quite superficial.
Geez folks, what are you doing with this thread ?
The Padres GM from 2005 through 2010 was Kevin Towers, their scouting director was Grady Fuson. What does anything that these two or Alderson ( in a business side position ) & DePodesta ( as a member of their FO but certainly not the person ultimately in charge) did with San Diego over that time have to do with what Omar Minaya’s front office did with the draft during that phase and what the effect is now ?
Fact is, a big reason why the Nats & Braves are in a better position in the NL East right now is that they brought in more talent via the draft during those six years than the Mets. It usually takes 3 to 6 years for the full effects of a draft to show. Or the cumulative effects of several draft classes.
Again, Omar did fine creating a quick fix winner – what he was asked to do, surrounding two young stars with veteran impact help and nice small scale fillers. He also built a nice Latin American pipeline of talent procurement so to speak that should help going forward and gives the Mets a structural advantage.
However, after 2010 he left behind an expensive mostly veteran .500 team and a fringe average farm system, made worse by an ownership group running out of cash. That’s why the ” bountiful inheritance” for his successors is a myth. The path chosen by hus successors was the only possible, given the circumstances. From 2014 and 2015 on, we’ll find out whether it is successful overall and whether some mistakes along the way ( Reyes most of all) will be made up by the maximum hauls received for Dickey & Beltran…..
DrDooby — regarding your statement:
The Padres GM from 2005 through 2010 was Kevin Towers, their scouting director was Grady Fuson. What does anything that these two or Alderson ( in a business side position ) & DePodesta ( as a member of their FO but certainly not the person ultimately in charge) did with San Diego over that time have to do with what Omar Minaya’s front office did with the draft during that phase and what the effect is now ?
1) I know that. You know that. But that doesn’t stop critics of Sandy or Depo from bashing them over the Padres farm system during the time they were there. Thus, the comparison of SD’s farm system to that of the Mets for the time they were there!
2) Some mentioned that Andre should have done all 30 teams instead of just the Nats and Braves. Adding SD to the results at least goes a little way toward achieving that.
UPDATE: In a classic case of “be careful what you wish for” … the numbers look worse for Omar when the negative WAR is added in, as requested by damaja.
Negative WAR 2005-2010
SD (-5.2)
Mets (-7.3)
So that leaves …
SD … 53.9 – 5.2 = 48.7 Net bWAR
Mets … 30.6-7.3 = 23.3 Net bWAR
I still think negative WAR should be left out, but if you insist, well then ………..
As for the players used, ANY player from the 2005-2010 drafts who had accumulated a WAR was counted in. Below is the link to the players used for SD for 2005. If you want to see names for subsequent years, just choose the year from the drop-down menu.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=SDP&year_ID=2005&draft_type=junreg&
So, this replicates Andre Dobiey’s method exactly. My adjustment actually made Omar look better. But since some insisted on using the negative WAR, so be it.
Conclusion: During Omar’s years as Mets GM, the Padres had better success with their drafts as did the Nats and Braves.
ahhhh….now it went from the farm system to “the draft”
not exactly the same thing when you trade away David Freese when he is in A+ ball for Jim Edmonds…
a topic you avoid over and over again….
In this context, farm system = draft. No difference.
And there is no topic to avoid. I am using Andre’s exact method now, which I think is the best method to judge a farm system. If you don’t like it, then come up with a system of your own and share it with the MMO community. But I don’t see anything better talked about. Do you?
but according to you, no GM really tells the truth
Nope. Never said this. I said I never take what a GM says seriously unless it’s an assertion of fact. Omar essentially said he had the option to use assets for IFAs the way he wanted to, so I believe it.
Just because I may not take other things a GM says seriously doesn’t mean I think he’s not telling the truth. It’s just that I won’t put a lot of stock into it.
right…an assertion of fact: u mean like Sandy Alderson saying that the decision to not spend money is strictly his…
the wilpons are not the reason he isnt spending money…
” Omar essentially said he had the option to use assets for IFAs the way he wanted to, so I believe it.”
Because Omar, like Sandy is really going to throw his bosses under the boss…
its BS when Sandy says it…
but when Omar says it, it cant be anything less than the truth !!!
Did he use the word “strictly?” I don’t think so. He just said that the decision is his, but obviously there is SOME restriction coming from the Wilpons as there is from every owner. Or the budget would be unlimited. And I have no reason to believe he’s not telling the truth.
Just like I have no reason to disbelieve Omar when he said he had the option to spend more on IFA rather than the draft.
Neither was lying. Or spouting BS. I’m not why you think they were.
and i just proved that andre’s stats are not even worth mentioning as they can include players who were never even signed by the club…
No, Andre would not have included players not signed by the club.
but ok, yes Beltran disrespected a team he idolizes for having the patron saint of PR ( clemente ) by saying his team should not be getting swept by them
He idolized the player. But NOT the team. He dissed the Pirates while he was with the Mets, and no way in a 100 years would he have agreed to play for them.
Omar most certainly did get one of those 1st rounders back when Atlanta signed Glavine away from us.
Right. And he actually did get other comp picks besides just the one for Glavine. But here’s the full quote of what I said:
“Wagner is just one player. He wouldn’t make up for all the other picks Omar threw away and never got back because he preferred useless and/or wheelchair players like Franco, Alou, Castilo, and El Duque.”
Which doesn’t mean he never got ANY picks back. It means getting a pick for Wagner wouldn’t make up for all those others he lost and NEVER got a pick back for. Like the picks he lost for Beltran and Pedro in 2005.
Like the picks he lost for Beltran and Pedro in 2005.
u mean the 2nd and 3rd round draft picks???
pass up on the best CF to hit the open market in a decade….and the best SP on the market while you have an aging and bad staff….
so u can protect a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick !
yes that makes sense !!!
pass up on the best CF to hit the open market in a decade….and the best SP on the market while you have an aging and bad staff….
No. But eventually get those picks back by obtaining the type of players you can offer arb to when they leave. This is what Cashman and Theo did all the time so effectively. They signed tons of free agents. Lost picks. But since they signed or acquired OTHER players who weren’t in wheelchairs, they were able to offer them arb before they left and thus GOT extra picks back. Omar rarely did that. Because he had a penchant for players like Franco, Alou, Delgado, Castillo, El Duque — even Pedro — who basically retired or were close to it by the time they left the Mets.
Even Beltran is a case in point. By agreeing in the contract that the Mets couldn’t offer arb, Omar effectively cut off the Mets chance to get back a draft pick when he left the team. He should never have agreed to that. That’s why Sandy felt the need to trade Beltran, which Omar likely wouldn’t have done for various reasons.
But eventually get those picks back by obtaining the type of players you can offer arb to when they leave.
And this is the point I’ve been trying to make to you. But for some reason, it seems to escape you.
It’s 2 parts. (1) Sign free agents and lose the picks. (2) Obtain the type of players, either those free agents you sign or others (ie, trades, etc), who you can get back draft picks for by offering arb to before they leave. Some like the Braves, Red Sox. and Yankees did that very well. For the Braves, at least the the second part.
Dooby — Do you know I didn’t know you and Andre were the same until your latest comments in this thread, LOL! I don’t always read all the comments in a thread (just the ones in direct reply to me or ones I am replying to, obviously) so I had missed earlier comments of yours where it was a little clearer you were the one who had done this study. So, nice job, Dooby, on this study, even though I already mentioned this to Andre.
Here are the consolidated results so far using your methodology:
Braves – 75 WAR
Nats – 56 WAR
Padres – 49 WAR
Giants – 46 WAR
Reds – 38 WAR
Cards – 30 WAR
Mets – 24 WAR
Phillies – 0 WAR
It’s very interesting, and many of those teams with more productive farm systems did not regularly go over slot.
Here’s a question for you: Why do you think it’s necessary to use negative WAR? I had originally left it out because I felt the use of inferior players likely to put up negative WAR was done out of necessity often due to circumstances beyond the scouting department’s and GM’s control — ie, injuries or limited budgets imposed by ownership. For example, if Oakland or TB were to have a lot of negative WAR, it’s only because their budgets are so limited they are forced to repeatedly try out prospects whom other teams like the Red Sox or Yankees would never give a shot to. IOW, the presence of negative WAR is often not by choice.
If your formula didn’t include negative WAR, then the Phillies wouldn’t look so bad. They’d still look bad, but at least they’d have some positive WAR (Worley).
I would think what you’d really only want to measure just the positive value WAR.
At any rate, that’s just my thoughts. I think it’s funny that some whined about my modification and when I then included negative WAR, as they said needed to be done, Omar came out looking even worse. Too funny!