21
2013
Mets Unorthodox Path To The Playoffs To Be Led By Unproven Players
An article by 
This week, Terry Collins and David Wright provided their annual sound bites that they believe the Mets, yes the group that has found its way to Port St. Lucie this spring, have it in them to make a run to the playoffs. I know what your thinking. How could a team that won only on seventy-four games last season with a Cy Young Award winning knuckleballer that has since been traded, a team which features what has already been almost unanimously dubbed a comically bad outfield, and a team that finds itself entrenched in what is likely the most powerful division in baseball have any chance at pulling that off? The simple answer… They dont! However, the team that will be donning the blue and orange come mid-summer should have a much better chance as the pieces outlining “Sandy’s” team fall into place.
Finances and injuries aside, the biggest in-season problem that has crippled the Mets over the past five years has been the inevitable second have swoon. You can almost set your clocks to the post all-star break slide that sees the team lose its last grasp of postseason aspiration each summer. This season’s group has the opportunity to avoid the same fate, and here’s how that happens…
First and foremost, I don’t think this season’s outfield is all that bad, at least compared to last season’s outfield, from an offensive standpoint. Your asking a group that will likely include Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Collin Cowgill, Mike Baxter and probably Marlon Byrd to collectively give you a season that eclipses the .238 BA, .309 OBP, 55 HR, 206 RBI, and .696 OPS that last year’s crop of outfielders posted. Those numbers are not unobtainable, even for the group in camp this spring and better yet.. I’m only asking them to do it for half the season. The pursuit of legitimate outfielder was an utter failure this winter and remains the organization’s biggest issue going forward. However, if the aforementioned comically bad outfield can hold it together long enough, reinforcements could be on the way when the trade deadline looms this summer. The team’s undeniable need for at least two quality outfielders, it’s sizable crop of young minor league arms and any lingering hope for a playoff run could be enough to see Sandy Alderson pull the trigger on another blockbuster mid-season trade. However instead of bolstering the team’s farm system, this move shores up the Major League outfield and ideally fills one of those positions for seasons to come.
Such an addition, albeit theoretical, only adds to the renovation the twenty-five man roster is likely to experience this summer. Acquired as part of the trade that sent R.A. Dickey to Toronto, Travis d’Arnaud figures to arrive in Queens by mid-June. His arrival not only provides a quality backstop for the team’s biggest weapon, the starting rotation, it also figures to make a decided lefty dominated lineup, more formidable. Does he immediately blossom into the weapon the Mets envision for the next ten years? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean he won’t provide quality at bats and an added level of power this lineup so desperately needs.
Your final, and in all likelihood most anticipated arrival this summer, will be that of Zack Wheeler. Boasting a pitch selection that many deem good enough to see him quickly evolve into the team’s ace, he will cause headaches for opponents who will be seeing him for the first time late in the season. Its also important to recognize that his impending arrival leaves the Mets with an excess of major league caliber starting pitching that is always coveted at the trade deadline. That could mean the mid-summer trade of former ace and no-hitter hero, Johan Santana, who will exit Queens with the Mets paying the large majority of his salary to ensure a good return, provided he can remain healthy, further aiding the team elsewhere as the summer presses on.
You see, unlike most teams who enter the year with a roster primed for playoff glory, the Mets hopes lie in the effectiveness of players who aren’t even hear yet. When they arrive, they’ll join a roster full of other young players who, save David Wright, don’t realize they’re not good enough. With any luck it will be that naivety and maybe even some stubbornness that sees the Mets remain in the thick of things long enough for their difference makers to arrive. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Of course not. However, if they do experience such success, the added excitement of having things come together at just the right time could give the Mets the added momentum necessary to push through a division of much more established teams.
The Mets are not by any stretch of the imagination poised to be a contender this summer, but that should stop fans from enjoying the ride. Enjoy the knowledge that the team’s brightest young stars are on their way and poised to contribute later this year. Know that if their predecessors can stay the course long enough, the likes of Travis d’Arnaud, Zack Wheeler and maybe even a few players to be named later will be playing for a lot more than reps before this season is said and done.
Follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83
About the Author: Rob Patterson
Ultimately, I owe nearly thirty years of Mets related torture to my mother, who is the reason I became a fan. I was too young to remember the 86 run, but hope to see one I'll be able to recall much sooner than later. I enjoy writing about the team and welcome your feedback on my posts. Oh..and I am not with 28!
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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I’m telling you, the pressure (Forget anticipation) on zack wheeler will be so big, i think (I hope not) that the kid will fail big time to exceed spectations, and the fault will be on sandy, if we have a team that’s good enough to compete, wheeler can come in and provide a spark going forward with not much pressure, but since more likely this team will be doom, media and fans will be begging for this kid to come up and ride the entire ship of a losing franchise. I hope the mets go ahead and start off hot like last year just so this kid’s mental toughness doesn’t get rattle if he doesn’t perform well for an already losing and pathetic franchise going down the drains…
I know I didn’t mention him here, but I think Matt Harvey will share the brunt of that storm, helping Wheeler out a bit. I do agree though that the Mets have pumped Wheeler up so much that he’s an ace or bust in the eyes of many fans.
How come you didn’t mention Matt Harvey in an article like this? He’s only one of the most important factors in the Mets plans this year. He’s only one of the most important stories in years to unfold this season in Flushing.
How can you possibly not mention him????
Could be, but the reason they’re hyping him up to no end is due to the lack of good players we have on the team. and while harvey did ok and all that in his few starts, the hype to wheeler is reaching insane points…
Disagree with you. It would be one thing if Sandy was “hyping him to no end” and he ranked #247 on Baseball America’s Top 500. But Wheeler (and D’Arnaud) rank in the the top 10 of all baseball by Baseball America, Mayo of MLB, John Sickels, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law of ESPN, Scott Miller of CBS Sports, to name a few.
None of them have anything to gain by hyping any Mets prospect.
Yea, I’m not seeing the Mets hyping Wheeler any more than he was hyped when he was in A ball in the Giants organization and being mentioned in the same breath as Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner.
The kid is who he is and his performance speaks for itself. What are the Mets supposed to do, say he sucks but they are going to grudgingly stick him in the rotation someday?
Joe D, ok, so losing franchises get a kid who’s supossed to be great according to keith law and BA, but usually they don’t then what? WHat if this kid who is been pegged as the savior of a losing franchise fails to meet expectations? then what? Trust me, while sandy is not hyping him up, the fan base (You know, the people who pay for tickets to go see them play) is. and if the kid becomes average, or not good, then they’d turn out and declare this guy to be a bust. it’s not the same to be an overhype prospect in SF than in NY. matt cain was average at best in his first season in SF, he was supposed to be a stud, but SF fans patiently waited for him to developed and go trough the motions of losing etc while in the bigs, same will not be said for wheeler due to higher expectations in NY
Who is proclaiming him as a savior of a losing franchise? Because we are excited about his potential? Seriously, exaggerate much?
I think you’re dismissing the intellectual level of the fan base. Sure there are a few short-sighted fans who have no patience and think all success should be immediate, but for the most part, I think the fans understand it might take a little while for Wheeler to get his feet wet and figure everything out.
Even with Harvey I expect some regression this year, but not because I don’t think he will be a good pitcher. He was just so dominant in the handful of starts he had last year, that there’s no way he can keep it up at that level at such a young age.
Yup, most fans are rational.
If Wheeler and d’Arnaud don’t become elite players, and become let’s say Pelfreyish, it will be apocalyptic for this franchise. Sandy will retire with the $12 million or so he will have earned in his stay and Fred, Jeff, and Uncle Saul will be begging for fans. Just remember, Corey Patterson, he who is currently in Mets minor league camp, was once a top 10 prospect, and may have been the top prospect
If Wheeler & d’Arnaud wind up being flash in the pans and Wright proves his contract to be a disaster the very first year I can’t begin to imagine what will unfold.
BLAME THE WILPONS’ excuses to the fullest…
Prospects don’t always have luxury of joining a well rounded, contending team.
If he’s going to succeed in the MLs, he’ll have to contend with the good and the bad.
Let’s give the kid a chance before we predetermine his talent won’t live up to expectations.
if a guy is not reasonably mentally tough and focused (and frankly, a bit of an egomaniac!) they likely never make it anywhere near the majors.
besides, a dude like Wheeler has been hot stuff since he was in LL most likely. always the best/star player, getting all the attention, and expected to carry the team. then in HS, the pressure ramps up with focus on the draft, and getting picked high in the 1st round is another big burden to carry.
He is not the first guy on the Mets to come up after a huge amount of hype, joining a losing team. that would be Seaver, and he turned out OK!
Doesn’t the fact that the team is supposed to stink this year lessen the pressure on Wheeler? It’s not like Sandy and company are saying, we are going to stink this year until Wheeler gets here, then we are playoff bound.
It’s not like Sandy and company are saying, we are going to stink this year until Wheeler gets here, then we are playoff bound.”
Is he showing otherwise? Bringing in PO’ss like he did then saying we have pitching coming up don’t you worry is not saying wait till wheeler is here? because, other than him, we don’t have another overhype pitcher coming up this year do we?
Where did he say, “We stink but don’t worry we have pitching coming up”?
Bringing in “PO’s” has nothing to do with Wheeler.
Ok, question for you. The team stinks, and likely this year stinks, if wheeler comes up, but the defense fails him, the offense fails him and we continue to stink, what do you think that’ll do for his phyche? wouldn’t that put more pressure on him to be perfect? to be more precise while pitching? Therefore putting more pressure on himself? do you think that only sabermetrics factors in? There’s more than numbers in baseball, and you being a coach should know this….
Didn’t Harvey come up on a weak and struggling team?
Yeah, did his performance lift the team? DId it make us better no matter how good he pitched? Wheeler is the guy who’s been overhyped to no end, and fans of NY are taking notice. If he happens to sturggle or not do good, it’ll go south very soon…
If you say so Alex. As usual we aren’t going to agree here. You are describing him basically as Pelfrey or Perez mentally. If he can’t handle the pressure he will suck regardless.
actually, he most likely says “holy crap, I am 22(?), making 1/2 mill a year, people carry my bags, and I have my pick of groupies. this is way the hell better than pitching in the minors. life is good, even if Duda takes an occasional bad route or FFF blows a save”. IOW, it is good to be the king!
“Ok, question for you. The team stinks, and likely this year stinks, if wheeler comes up, but the defense fails him, the offense fails him and we continue to stink, what do you think that’ll do for his phyche?”
Maybe the same thing it did for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and Randy Johnson and plenty of other good pitchers who played on some bad teams early in their careers.
And this idea that they are going to wilt from the big city lights is silly. they are grown men and in the top 1% of their trade in the world. You don’t get there by being shy.
Alright. Wheeler will fail. Just like Harvey did. And you will laugh at us all when Jeurys Familia is the best pitcher of the three.
There are such things as Sandy-Lovers.. but being the exact opposite is not ideal either.
Lotus, i was the first one to express my disappointment in familia, however, if he does in fact become a closer for us and have a tremendous career, wouldn’t you be happy? I am not wishing or saying wheeler will fail, read again, i am saying that the amoung of pressure being put into him alongside the pathetic roster around him will more likely than not make him fail…
Hype or no hype…true fans will be excited for whats to come. We have a young team, a fresh start and the excitement of a new season. Every year there is a team that surprises us all with a bunch of unknown talent. This year…that could be us! Ya gotta believe!
With so much Pitching talent and depth, it’s hard to imagine that they would not be able to bring in some nice piece to add to the team. Not saying someone on the Stanton level, but maybe you could pry Reddick from OAK away, if they are floundering. The White Sox are always a possibility. Minny, Seatlle, Pittsburgh… All possibilities. Heck, even Boston could be an option, as I doubt they are making a long run this season. Time will tell. And hope Springs eternal.
I agree that this is the year where a mid-season trade that brings back an under control guy is likely to happen. Someone that has gotten their feet wet at the ML level but has not really settled in as a FT guy yet, as opposed to trading a SP for a 20 YO A Ball guy.
on nit to pick. I can’t see any way Byrd is going to make the team over Brown. they need his RH power bat way more than the corpse that used to be a very mediocre player in Byrd.
I think it’s a good debate for sure. If Brown has any options left he might be stashed in AAA. However, I think the fact that he can play 1B can’t be missed either. The Mets will need a guy to back up Davis now and then and I hate the idea of that being Turner or moving Duda or Murphy over there for a game. At least with Brown he’s RH.
Keep your eye on Brandon Hicks. Supposedly the reason he is so highly thought of is he can play all the infield positions.
Not exactly a first baseman though. He’s played 4 games between minors and majors there.
Lucas Duda wasn’t exactly a right fielder or a left fielder for that matter before he was and that was mostly at the major league level.
LOL, yeah I know. Just saying they might want to consider carrying someone to backup Ike and considering that Brown is RH and can play LF and RF as well it makes him more attractive.
Hicks is highly thought of because he plays so many positions? That something new on the Mets?
OR
Are you hoping this is some kind of magical find that through the process of Deliberate Practice, secret formulas by Google Boy, & just ‘cuz Sandy found him this is different than the same type of players the Mets have had plenty of in years past on both good and bad teams.
yawn.
Highly thought of?? By WHO???????????????????????????????
You guys make me sick….. Now that you mentioned him, i will keep an eye on him and attach your name to him everytime he (Highly Likely) sucks in the field…. SMH
I am guessing he means Mets officials and coaches. Haven’t read much on him myself.
You are one angry little man. Have you thought about finding a hobby that doesn’t cause you so much stress? Knitting or collecting bottle caps or something along those lines.
Here’s a tip, when you are put on the 40 roster for spring training, the team values you. Tough concept to master but give it a whirl.
No,
He has a right to be angry and he’s probably been a Mets fan for more years than you, and Alex was also an athlete at a high level too so his perceptions are MUCH better than yours. The only thing you may have over him is being able to express your love of Alderson in a matter-of-fact way as if why doesn’t everybody worship him. You fail to understand that from our point of view you people put this ‘premium’ on moves that have been done by this organization many times before only this time they are done in droves because we have an arrogant front office that purposely did not make the team as good as they could have because of “draft picks”, which is fine by YOU, and you also support all these filler-type players being signed because your God is doing it. You rationalize anything this front office does as good in the false context of it being normal business.
“…and Alex was also an athlete at a high level too so his perceptions are MUCH better than yours.”
Well I was a college athlete so, by you inane logic, my perception is MUCH better than his.
Come on man…get with the program.
maybe your perception is better than Boomer’s? Maybe you SUCKED in college and rode the bench?
C’mon T AGEE. I know it’s you.
Hey chuckles, guess what? I was a college athlete as well. I’m willing to bet there are quite a few people here who played sports in college. Big deal.
You should stick with the Sandy goner or Saber lover nonsense. That’s where you excel.
Okay DrBoomer your wish is granted. The next time you bow down to suck on Sandy’s toes i’ll be there.
Atta boy. As Clint said, a mans got to know his limitations. We are all painfully aware of yours.
Damn, you should have seen how i proposed a solution to correct the flaw Mitch pointed out in Dan Dekker’s batting stance. And how Mitch commented that solution that i proposed is exactly how he corrected the same problem he has.
Among other things.
You see, once a jerkoff like YOU. A person who loves to pontificate after-the-fact such as yourself and tries to pass it off as inate knowledge suddenly says I know nothing about baseball I immediately dismiss you as a defeated, dejected wannabe.
Go play with your stupid numbers you clown.
Here’s a tip, when you are put on the 40 roster for spring training, the team values you. Tough concept to master but give it a whirl”
I figure you’d come up with some idiotic statement…. Didn’t chin lu hu get put in the 40 man roster? Eamus? Thayer and boyer? you’re so stupid i don’t even know why i waste my time replying to the stupid post and comments you make…. Moving on…………..
The NY Post “hyped” Wheeler today, but that’s only because he looked so Big League to the Mets players against whom he pitched.
Can’t wait to see this kid develop for us. How great would it be to see the return of a Golden Age of Mets pitching!!!
Right now the pressure is on, but not on Wheeler, they said they’ll get him when he’s ready. As great as he is/will be, he won’t affect the team as greatly, especially this time around, even if he puts on Dickey-esque numbers, he wouldn’t save the team on his own. The pressure is on Johan to bounce back, as well as the outfield with Duda, Cowgill, and Niewenhuis, and the bullpen that will need to hold leads for the starters.
No pressure Mr. Wheeler, do what you do, run your race with side blinders on and you will do fine.
We don’t expect him to come up and be Strasburg anyway.
Exactly, we don’t even expect him to be as good as Harvey was last year. At least I don’t. I just, like many others, believe that if the reports are true he could be a #1 and would be a great addition.
The performance of a team like the Mets – loaded with young players without a very reliable track record – is a lot more difficult to project than for a team that mostly features established veteran majors leaguers, say, the SF Giants or Atlanta Braves.
It starts with the outfield which probably could perform anywhere between atrocious to borderline average, extends to a young SP like Matt Harvey who could struggle or could burst out and be a frontline SP like in his brief 2012 sample and goes deep into the bullpen with several young or inexperienced options such as Edgin, Familia or Burke likely to see extended action. Let alone Zack Wheeler and Travis d´Arnaud as rookies to enter the scene at some point during the summer. That´s why – while a 75 win season seems most realistic – one can come up with a sound argument for both an 85 win season or – on the pessimistic end – 65 wins.
Let alone 3/5 of the rotation in Santana – Gee – Marcum, i.e. three pitchers coming off injury riddled 2012 seasons in which the three combined for less than 450 innings together. That also could change for better or worse.
The good part about such an unpredictable roster is that in this case, spring optimism actually isn´t totally unfounded. Sure, a lot will have to break right for the Mets to contend and it appears to be rather unlikely. However, much like the 2012 A´s which also won with a young, unpredictable and inexperienced team, it´s not as far fetched as it would be with a roster like the 2011 Mets for example, a mostly veteran team back then with no significant rookie or young player without a track record.
“That´s why – while a 75 win season seems most realistic – one can come up with a sound argument for both an 85 win season or – on the pessimistic end – 65 wins.”
Agreed, That’s why I went with 75. I could see easily 70-80 wins, it’s just so early and hard to tell because of so many unknowns.
It´s just totally unpredictable. Which should make watching – at least in the early goings of the season – a lot more interesting & worthwhile than in most previous years when the Mets sported a more veteran roster.
So, while 75 wins seems like realistic and probably slightly conservative estimate, it´d be less surprising to see a deviation of that for the better or the worse than with a more proven team.
Heck, for now, the grand total of players age 30 or older on the 40-man roster is 6 (Santana – Marcum – Lyon – FF – Wright – Buck). Even if a couple of the NRI make it eventually and cost Havens or Puello their 40-man roster spot, a total of 8 players who are older than 30 is still very low. And Wright happens to be the only player from that group that has a guaranteed contract for 2014 at this point…So it appears, the Mets will be a generally young team going forward. Which doesn´t mean that they´ll win more games but at least improves the likelihood of internal progress.
That’s the thing I think many are missing. The fact that they are young can go two ways. Looking at the roster now and saying it will continue to stink doesn’t allow for improvement from the younger players. Obviously that isn’t guaranteed but…
Um no,
Watching a bunch of unproven journeyman play in a season where the team is not expected to perform is not more interesting than previous years. Sorry.
What IS interesting to see is what Matt Harvey will do, what Ike Davis will do, how Wheeler & d’Arnaud perform. Those are interesting things to do.
Watching a bunch of journey who at most might turn out to produce a couple of decent seasons by 4th & 5th outfielders is not more interesting than the other things. It’s BECAUSE of the other potential stories to unfold that I just pointed out is the reason the outfield should be BETTER and more established. So any bonus the outfield can give (outside of Lucas Duda who i think should have been given the job to lose as long as the Mets signed another OFer) could actually be bittersweet if the players i mentioned before actually DO play well.
For now, it´s hard to qualify players such as Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill, Valdespin, Familia, Edgin or Burke among others as “journeymen”. They may well windup as just that. But there´s a pretty decent chance that some end up being useful spare parts at the very least. Heck, even low ceiling players like Hefner or Baxter aren´t exactly proven.
Sure, Omar Quintanilla,Marlon Byrd, Latroy Hawkins or Aaron Laffey among otherscertainly have “journeyman” status. But it doesn´t appear as if they´ll have prominent roles on the 2013 Mets.
So, while the team certainly doesn´t look too exciting, it´s still rather difficult to project.
Familia & Edgin are journeyman outfielders?
I separated Duda from the journeyman and said he should be given the job to win or lose
I didn’t have Valdespin & Kirk in mind when I said journeyman. I was specifically referring to the scrubs your buddy Sandy got this off season
The BP Will Be Better.
The OF Will Be Better.
The SP Will Be Better.
The C Will Be Better.
Overall, Mets Will Be Better.
And you can take that to the bank.
That’s not exactly a bold prediction given the TANKING for the purpose of draft picks the front office did the last 2 years.
The BP Will Be Better.” WRONG
The OF Will Be Better.” WRONG
The SP Will Be Better.” WRONG
The C Will Be Better.” MAYBE
Overall, Mets Will Be Better.” WRONG, Well, if they win 75 they will be.
And you can take that to the bank.” NO THANKS. Check my bounce so hard it’ll break our faces
Interesting from MLBTR:
“David Wright knew that he would have been a highly coveted free agent if he didn’t sign with the Mets long-term, Weiner said (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). “David understood that if he went out to market he’d probably make more money, and perhaps substantially more money,” Weiner said. Wright signed an eight-year, $138MM extension with the Mets in December.”
Yeah, there was an article on this yesterday – forget where. Had more comments on Wright on why he signed that extension.
Might have been on MLB…..
This is a dumb debate and any Met fan who believes Wheeler will be a savior is a fool.
He is a starting pitcher. Thus he only is in, at most, 20% of the games. Then couple in the fact that a SP, especially a rookie, will only go maybe 6 or 7 innings, that total is lessened. Plus, run support, defense, and the BP on that given day is in the discussion.
This isnt basketball where one guy can carry his team. Look at King Felix…one of the best pitchers in baseball and how was the Mariners record?
But solid SP gives you hope. Without it you don’t exist. So Wheeler or not i can’t blame any fans of any team to be hopeful when they have a potential stud like Wheeler is supposed to be in the farm.
Stop being so t agee-like.
A fulltime SP who makes 30 starts and goes 180+ IP is generally involved in more plate appearances over the course of a 162-game season than any regular position player.
So, while he´ll only have an impact on the 30 or so games he´ll appear in, it´s far more significant than the impact that any regular hitter will generally have over any game.