28
2013
Mets Have The Most Promising Crop Of Right-Handed Pitching Prospects In Baseball
An article by 
Michael Fulmer will debut in St. Lucie this season after dominating in Savannah last year.
I was flipping through Baseball America’s most recent issue listing their 100 Top Prospects, and I came across something interesting in their organization reports about the New York Mets. In summary, they state that the Mets now believe they have “one of the most promising stables of right-handed power arms in the game.” This is some very optimistic, yet very bold thinking from the Mets. I like the message they are trying to put out to the fan base. It gives a reason for fans to be excited. But after digging a little deeper, it can also lead to some skepticism at the same time.
We already know about the more prominent young power arms in the Mets system: Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard. However the rest of the names included by Baseball America which the Mets are boasting about are Rafael Montero, Michael Fulmer, Luis Mateo, Domingo Tapia and Corey Mazzoni. This is where we can poke some holes in the Mets’ claims.
Don’t get me wrong. These guys have dynamite stuff, and supporting what the Mets are boasting, the recent MMO Top 25 Prospect list included all of the pitchers named above (aside from Harvey who is no longer a prospect). In fact, every pitcher listed above was in the top ten on the MMO list aside from Mazzoni, who checked in at No. 23. All of these guys touch the mid to upper 90s with their fastballs, with Tapia touching 100 MPH. After reading that last statement, it’s easy to see why these guys are considered power arms.
However, with the exception of a couple of the guys listed above, not many of them have pitched above A-Ball yet. That is obviously where the skepticism comes into play. At single-A, these guys can rely on throwing complete gas and dominate the less experienced hitters at the lower levels. It really won’t be until we see these guys at double-A where we can start making bold claims that the Mets truly have the best crop of right-handed power arms in their system. On paper, these guys look great. Heck, at single-A these guys look great. But let’s wait and see what happens against more polished hitters in the upper levels.
Even Syndegaard is labeled as a guy that has to start developing his secondary pitches, and there is a very good chance he will be considered the top prospect in the Mets organization once Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud are promoted this season.
These pitchers’ have a ton of potential, but as Joe D alluded to in one of his recent posts, there is only so much we can look into guys that have yet to pitch beyond A-ball. The reality of the situation is the fact that probably half of those guys won’t ever pitch at the major league level. It’s just part of the game, and we have to accept it.
Only time will tell how this crop of young fire-ballers’ careers pan out. But I’m not upset that the Mets are boasting one of the best crops of young right-handers in the game. They have a right to make the claim; it will just be better supported once these guys start showing success above the Double-A level.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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They seem pretty durable too, not a lot of DL minutes on those A-ball arms.
“On paper, these guys look great. Heck, at single-A these guys look great. But let’s wait and see what happens against more polished hitters in the upper levels.”
Agreed.
Needing these guys to graduate (and perform) at AA IMO is a big reason why there was not a big trade made this off season. The arms that will be attractive will bring back a lot more if they can perform the same at the next year. basically, pull a Wheeler.
Say that Montero, Fulmer and Synderblock all dominate PSL and get bumped up to AA, and keep on rolling. Suddenly at the end of the year, you could end up with more than 1 guy attracting the attention Wheeler got (or close to it), making it a whole lot easier to cut some from the herd for a good player back.
“Needing these guys to graduate (and perform) at AA IMO is a big reason why there was not a big trade made this off season. The arms that will be attractive will bring back a lot more if they can perform the same at the next year. basically, pull a Wheeler”
Exactly Van! Good luck trying to get that point across around here.
I think it ties into Sandy’s comments (of course, you always have to read behind the lines there!)
If AZ said wheeler for Upton, no trade.
But if they had said Fulmer for Upton, it would have gotten done.
THat IMO is what he meant about having trade chips but the value not meshing in potential deals.
Right again. But people here think you just take 3 or 4 minor leaguers and bring back a good major league outfielder like there’s nothing to it. When he got here there was nothing but Harvey with any real value. Only now is the farm starting to develope some valuable trade chips and that’s still not a foregone conclusion just yet. If the arms on the farm perform like last year then we have more chips to play with along with more flexibility.
I think some people are still a bit scared to trade top pitching prospects because they are having Victor Zambrano flashbacks!!
VAN, WHAT CERTAINLY DIFFERENTIATES THIS PITCHING CROP FROM THE ONCE AWESOME EXPECTATIONS SURROUNDING “GEN-K” IS THE SHEER DEPTH, THUS I’D CAUTION TOO MUCH, OR TOO FRIVOLOUS HERD REDUCTION AS CONFUCOUS, AMONG OTHERS MUST HAVE CAUTIONED, “THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TOO MUCH PITCHING!”
MOST LIKELY IT WAS CHARLIE CHAN NOT CONFUCOUS;BUT THE POINT IS SURELY VALID JUST SEE HOW FEW PITCHING PROMISES ARE DEALT BY ATL OR STL OVER THE PAST YEARS IS THERE ANY OTHER RATIONALE FOR THEUIR SURVIVING THE RASH OF KEY PITCHING LOSSES SO APTLY?
Don’t forget Jacob DeGrom, yet another awesome power righty.
Wow, well done Mitch!!!
Yes only time will tell but when I read these articles all I get is the Mets are counting on all these pitchers, fact is not all of them will make it which is why you need depth which the Mets clearly have right now, and it figures to get deeper. The generation K comparisons are a little ridiculous be aide we where talking about 3 prospects and one of them actually ended up with 300 career saves, so 2 did not pan out. The main thing here is that the point of building up the farm and having depth is to be able to trade and or control these guys. Enough depth can help you trade for a young power hitter that you can lock up through their primes and not their 30s, or gives you financial flexibility and player control with the rotation. They are not just hopeful prospects, they are like ciggarettes in jail, even if Syndergaurd does not throw a pitch for the Mets, if he gets us Stanton his value will be felt. You guys should start adding that in your articles instead of making it sound like we depend on all of these young kids to make it to the show.
It’s reasonable to me, that in one year, half of these guys might be in AA. One might be in AAA, and some still at the high A level. There’s no escaping the fact that next off season the Mets might have 5 or 6 pitchers in mlb’s top 100 and that doesn’t include the 2013 draft.
One more year of development will give Sandy a lot of options next off season.
I agree with the assessments of most who posted. It is a numbers game, not all will make it, and it is purely conjecture at this point what the Mets have. However, a farm system full of good young arms is much better than one without. It will be a telling year since many of the names mentioned will see AA and that most likely will thin out the herd a bit. At the same time, those who do perform will have more value.
Now to get some everyday players who are thought of equally as highly.
What encourages me is that in past years we had few or no pitchers who had the combination of stuff and control that we have this year. I don´t give much credit to Kingsport or Brooklyn, but I start paying attention at Savannah and up. Most of these prospects were age-appropriate or young for their levels, and many had very good K/BB ratios. In previous years I´ve complained about the K rate or K/BB rates, but not this year. This gives me hope.
Our near future is finally looking bright! Can’t wait for the milb season to get started! The best part is that tge Yankees are on their way down and fast! They are old, hurt, Have an enormous payroll and a weak minor league system! Life is good!
It’s good to have a lot of Pitching…But the timing of when it arrives is almost as important as the having if you want it to translate into success….
Gooden, Darling, Aguilera and Fernandez all arrived within a year of each other.
Thats 4/5th of your rotation….And with all those hard throwers it made it easy to fill that 5th spot (3rd in the rotation) with a Finesse pitcher like Ojeda who are never that high in demand to complement all those power arms.
If we take the overly optimistic assumption that all these guys being touted will spend a year at each level then get promoted the earliest you will see them is 3 Years from now.
2017 where Niese will be making 9 Mil in his walk year if they don’t take the 10 or 11 Mil options. Gee will be FA, Harvey will be in his first year of Arb, Wheeler in 2018. Things get pretty pricey once Arb starts. Davis, Tejada, Baxter will also be FA that year. Lot of money increases!
In the meantime 2014 will see Santana and Marcum go.
2016 Parnell and Murphy are FA
By the time these pitchers get here Most of the CORE we say we have been building around will be FA, not all that cheap due to Arb, or Outright Gone!
And that hasn’t even touched on what it might take to get an OF, and Stabilize the Pen (francisco is gone at the end of the year).
Yes it is good we have a lot of Power RH arms in the farm…(I would prefer to have a few Leftes as well) But when I look at the complextion of the possible roster in the year they are ready it will be just a bit too late to have a payoff.
Save Rushing them or trading them I don’t see how they can play a role in any MET success and if they do it won’t last long because the timing isn’t correct for a long term sustenance of our CORE.
Best hope is to get them to AA, Pray like hell they succeed and impress so we can use them to get the Stantons and Uptons everyone seems to love to trade a farm for and make the 2015-2017 years the years the rebuild pays off. Then you might get a Niese and Davis to resign for a discount to continue playing with thier fellow Ring Bearers….For slightly less than extortionate prices.
The Opening Day 2013 St.Lucie rotation should be:
Syndergaard
Fulmer
Tapia
Mateo
Robles
Pantaleodis
with Montero, DeGrom, Verrett and Pill all heading to Binghamton.
All of these pitchers have above average control. Most of them also have pretty good to very good stuff. None will be a factor in 2013 at the major league level. But each should be able to advance quickly if the stuff plays. Because “command” issues don´t figure to hold them back for long. Each of them should open 2014 in Double A ball or even higher if not injured.
Once you prove you can handle that jump, you´re not that far away from the majors.
So realistically, beginning in the 2nd half of 2014 these pitchers should start reaching the majors. Some faster, some slower, some not at all.
Realistically, each of them is a candidate for the 2015 opening day roster if they progress as planned.
However, odds are, some of them will be used as trade bait before. Still, the trade value for some of them will be significantly higher than it is today a year from now, being much closer. The value for others will be lower due to likely attrition.
Obviously, not everyone of them will make it. Some will blow out arms, some will end up in the bullpen (which the Mets can always use), but I like the odds that some become legit major league SP or legit trade bait.