12
2013
Mets Matters: What About “That” Guy?
An article by 
For better or worse, Michael Bourn fell off the New York Mets radar Monday when he agreed to a four-year, $48 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.
Mets/MLB beat writer Anthony DiComo suggests, if history is any indication, Sandy Alderson committed an error. DiComo wrote:
The 11th overall Draft pick has a bizarre history of busts relative to the picks around it. Of the 48 players in history taken 11th overall, only five have amassed more than 10 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference … 17 of the 48 players never made the Majors …
Couldn’t that be said about the eighth pick? How about the six pick? Or, the 12th pick? DiComo’s logic is founded on coincidence, not any legitimate connection that the 11th pick is cursed. If there is truth in this logic, there is legitimacy in black cats, walking under ladders and idea that a Billy goat holds the key that unlocks the Cubs future hopes of winning a World Series.
Nonsense.
Metsmerized Online writer Connor O’Brien takes a more common sense approach, claiming the Mets suffered from “lack of preparedness.” Alderson was “too passive,” he wrote. The Mets GM needs to be “more aggressive.”
To those three claims: Maybe. OK. I guess.
Doesn’t Alderson’s inaction reflect a consistency in his approach? Since 2010 the Mets GM has systematically dismantled and rebuilt the organizational infrastructure. In are: J.P. Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta. On the field, Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jenrry Mejia, Josh Edgin, Jordany Valdespin, Zack Wheeler (eventually), Travis d’Arnaud (soon). Out are: Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Francisco Rodriguez, Angel Pagan, R.A. Dickey, Scott Hairston, Mike Pelfrey. (these lists are not exhaustive)
Younger, talented, building success from within, or as the Mets GM said, “We’re going to strive for consistency, but above all, excellence.”
This was the promise, right?
“I’ve always had a preference for holding on to our own talent and seeing how far it can go,” Alderson told the media at Citi Field in November 2010. “If it succeeds and realizes its full potential, we benefit. If it doesn’t, I think we’ve still made the right decision in terms of our fan base.”
Instead of analyzing decisions we can’t control, how about we ask a really intriguing question: Who will the Mets select as the 11th overall pick in the June 2013 MLB Draft? Imagine being that guy!?
The good news: That guy will be fresh out of high school (or college) and he will have the distinct honor of calling himself a first round pick in the MLB June Draft. There’s a story for your grandchildren one day.
The bad news: Will that guy have to live in the shadow of Alderson’s decision to keep the draft pick instead of signing a legitimate MLB center fielder? Will he feel pressure? New York alone has wilted the careers of both young and established veteran ballplayers, but this scenario will create a new level of expectation for No. 11.
The jury is out – and will be for a couple years – on whether or not Sandy Alderson made the right call on letting Bourn slip away for the price of a first-round draft pick.
Still, I wouldn’t want to be that guy. Would you?
About the Author: John Strubel
My name is John Strubel and I have been a Mets fan since 1972. Professionally, I have been a working member of the media since 1987. In addition to media relations and broadcast work for the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays minor league affiliates, my career spans 25 years in the radio industry as a on-air personality, program director and sports-talk show host. You can reach me at john@johnstrubel.com or on Twitter @johnstrubel
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LoL, “That Guy” when drafted probably won’t trigger Mets fans to come together in chorus and sing… http://youtu.be/CcrrepikVtI
Ha! Luckily “that” guy won’t be me.
“That Guy” may be good or may be a bust, but he definitely will not cost 60M for the first 5 years of MLB service.
Well, if we can’t get “That Guy”, maybe we can get Marlo Thomas to throw out the first pitch… “That Girl!”
I was actually waiting for someone to bring up That Girl. I subscribed to this thread just to see if somebody would. lol
It may not take a couple of years to determine whether or not Sandy made the right move. If Bourn has a few poor-mediocre (for him) years right off the bat while the Mets OF turns out to be decent this summer and in 2014, well then I think it’s safe to say Sandy made the right move, whether the 11th pick works out or not.
As for the 11th pick being a bust historically, that’s just coincidence. The 14th pick has actually had quite a lot of success historically — Jason Heyward, Billy Butler Jeff Weaver, Jason Varitek, Derek Lee, Cliff Floyd, Tino Martinez — so maybe when it comes time to pick the Mets should close their eyes and pretend they are picking #14!
LOL And if Bourn goes on to have three more All Star seasons LOL you’ll come up with some reasons LOL LOL why your man love LOL LOL still made the right move. LOL LOL Get it? LOL See what I’m saying? LOL LOL LOL LOL Can you at least try to tone down your constant ass licks? LOL LOL LOL
No, I don’t know what you’re saying. Your juvenile post is littered with so many excessive and lame LOLs that it’s hard to discern any intelligent thought there and makes you simply laughable. This type of inanity is so typical of you.
Hi Metro,
You actually made a good point about looking back at this decision based on how that “other” guy (i.e., Bourn) works out. Of course, it also depends upon what one considers to be a good or poor performance over the years.
But in turn, you know your point raises another question – what about the other free agents the Mets could have pursued earlier other than Bourn that also could have cost them that draft selection? Therefore it could simply be looked in terms of what the Mets decided to stay with – that “what outfield?” – just to protect that draft pick.
So many what if’s we can make our own version of “The Butterfly Effect” and, of course, a film more related to us, “Frequency”.
But then, anybody who would develop some sort of time warp and use it to go back and forth to change Sandy’s decisions really would really need to get a life!
BTW – I think that picture of Christopher Reeve is from Superman III
Hi Joey — whew! it’s nice to get back to an intelligent adult here.
There are all ways to judge this decision in the near future based on how Bourn does relative to the Mets CFers (whoever they may be) and how the 11th prospect turns out …
Good Bourn + good Mets CF + good 11th pick = Mets win
Good Bourn + good Mets CF + poor 11th pick = Mets win
Good Bourn + poor Mets CF + poor 11th pick = Mets lose
Good Bourn + poor Mets CF + good 11th pick = Neutral
Poor Bourn + poor Mets CF + good 11th pick = Mets win
… etc. etc. That’s how I see it.
As for the other free agents the Mets could have pursued instead of Bourn who would have cost the Mets a pick, there’s really only Hamilton and Swisher for the OF. Hamilton would have cost the Mets too much, and I can’t see him as a fit in NY. And I despise Swisher. Moreover, with Swisher you’d be overpaying for someone on the downside of his career whose stats were pumped up by a hitters ballpark and hitting in the middle of stacked lineups. Put him in a pitchers park in a sparser lineup and he’s not going to hit as well. So I really couldn’t see the Mets pursuing either of them under any circumstances.
Hey, I liked both Butterfly Effect and Frequency! If I could go back in time and change things, I’d find a way to prevent the Mets from ever signing Ollie, Castillo and Bay!
Do you really believe that is likely considering Bourne has been to only two all star games his entire career?
Much ado about nothing. A first round pick always has pressure on him.
Not signing Bourn was the right call.
What shadow? It’s not like Bourn is Willie Mays in his prime that we passed on for the 11th Pick.
“Will he have to live in the shadow of Alderson’s decision to keep the draft pick instead of signing a legitimate MLB center fielder? Will he feel pressure?”
this, is one heck of a stretch IMO. You are talking about some kid that will be happy as a clam to be picked that high, and collect a couple million$ for it. Then will toil way in the minors for some years, likely having no clue that the mets almost forfeited that pick in 2013.
And really, pressure from being the guy they took instead of Michael Bourn? if that is too much for the guy to handle, he has no shot at being successful in MLB!
I remember Kirk Presley and Al Shirley being happy as clams.
The common fan who couldn’t give a crap about the draft suddenly has a reason to pay attention now.
Typically, the baseball draft isn’t as important as the NBA or NFL, because the players drafted rarely ever contribute within that first year. Usually it takes awhile.
Now, by turning their 11th pick into an extremely important building block for this franchise; one more important then the sure thing ML’er who they passed on for it, the Mets have a large portion of their fan base paying attention to who gets picked.
Suddenly, getting away with picking a high school player who didn’t even have a high school team like Nimmo, might not fly as easily as it did in 2011. Or passing on a player like Courtney Hawkings for the light hitting Cecchini.
This time, reaching back and picking a prep player that is projected to go late in the first round just to secure an under slot signing probably is a bad idea. They’ll have a lot more fans and a lot more media watching who gets picked.
Concensus best player available…it’s their only choice.
As far as Draft picks facing undue pressure you could pretty much say that about ANY top overall pick that comes to NY regardless of what the GM did in the offseason that might be associated.
In NY you have a much bigger and critical pond you have to play in.
The Yankees have had 6 top 10 Picks since 1965. Jeter and Munson were the only two to thrive in NY and stay long term (until Munson passed away early).
The Mets on the other hand have had 20 Top 10 Picks since 65.
Only ones that are worth mentioning are
Matlack, Brooks, Strawberry, Gooden, Pelfrey and Harvey (who just got here)
Of those names (6 out of 20)
Matlack only 7 Years with the team
Brooks Only 5 years
Strawberry 8 years
Gooden 11 years
Pelfrey 7 Years.
And it could really be said that the City ate up Strawberry, Gooden and Pelfrey alive, Two resorted to drug and alcohol addiction and the pther simply folded whenever put under the slightest pressure.
It’s hard enough to live up to what is expected from being a top 10 pick, being automatically placed at the top of BA’s prospect list and then having to perform in the MLB fairly quickly or be labeled a bust….
Even harder in a place as Big as NY and maybe THAT is why no NY team has ever done well when they pick high in the draft or in the draft at all….
They don’t get the same laid back situation someone in Atlanta or StLouis does and they get crushed.
Hi Metro,
LOL – if you could go back in time to stop those things – and since I believe you are not a man of violence – instead of harming Omar you would instead shows him a series of self-produced DVDs of the Mets today and let him see the errors of his way and then telling him what moves should be taken instead (satisfying the anti-Omar group). At the same time, you’ll show the Wilpons why they should pull all their money out of Madoff immediately and even give them the information to expose Bernie and become national heroes. Thus this would create a series of events in which we would not require Sandy (satisfying the anti-Sandy crowd) and for all we know, we’d suddenly have six world series flags flying over Flushing.
But then, even though you’d be a Met hero, all Met history would have changed in the process so only you would know what changes had transpired. Swhen you try telling us how you fixed everything and when we are asking “Sandy Who?” while well
METRO – SKIP MY FIRST REPLY – DID NOT KNOW I HIT THE SEND BUTTON WHILE COMPLETING MY MANUSCRIPT!
Hi Metro,
LOL – if you could go back in time to stop those things – and since I believe you are not a man of violence – instead of harming Omar you would instead shows him a series of self-produced DVDs of the Mets today and let him see the errors of his way and then telling him what moves should be taken instead (satisfying the anti-Omar group). At the same time, you’ll show the Wilpons why they should pull all their money out of Madoff immediately and even give them the information to expose Bernie and become national heroes. Thus this would create a series of events in which we would not require Sandy (satisfying the anti-Sandy crowd) and for all we know, we’d suddenly have six world series flags flying over Flushing.
But then, even though you’d be a Met hero, all Met history would have changed in the process so only you would know what changes had transpired. So when you try telling us how you fixed everything as we are looking forward to our seventh straight WS flag, we will be praising the work of traditional baseball strategy, erecting a statue of Omar as we enter “Minya Field” while the two blood-brothers – Metsie and Jessep – have you taken away in a straight jacket while asking “Sandy who?”.
As you can probably guess, I’m already prepared the first draft of the screenplay. We can literally call the film “Next Year Is Now”!
Guess you’ll be taking back the comment about having an intelligent conversation, right? “)
I would’ve just ordered Duaner Sanchez some take-out.
I have been thinking long and hard about the Mets which believe me is not that easy. Here is what I came up with: The New York METS-We are not the Florida Marlins! That should get the fans flocking to Cit Field. So you can do better?
Not only dont I want to be “that guy.”
I’m not even sure if I want to “that fan.”
Great article, John
I get this, as it feels like that today.
But it was Michael Bourn, and I do not expect him to now go off on a Hall of Fame tear. In a year or two nobody will remember the connection between the two guys, Bourn won’t do enough to keep it alive.
That sounds an awful lot like the 12-5 games in the NCAA tournament.
I wldnt have minded either way but i’d rather keep the pick. DenDecker may end up being as good as bourne. I say giv it a year n seeif any of these guys stick .
I cant wait to c vincent lupo, william buccerra & Brandon Nimmo. They are at least 2 or 3 years away but Are gona be awesome. Lupo=manny ramirez 2.0
Basically, the reason why Bourn ultimately wasn´t signed (without the draft pick situation clarified and Bourn essentially dropping into the Mets lap) is the same reason why the Mets traded RA Dickey for mainly prospects, didn´t make any additions last July while being at the fringes of contention or haven´t packaged, say, Wilmer Flores, Michael Fulmer and Domingo Tapia to land an established veteran outfielder via trade this winter.
They are still very much rebuilding. Even if the PR is “we´re getting closer”, “we´re not punting”, etc., blah blah.
Fact is, over three winters, 2nd tier closer Frank Francisco is the “biggest” free agent signing – to a 2-year, 12 million $ contract. Which wouldn´t have even been worth mentioning in past winters. So far, over three years (actually four, counting Omar Minaya´s final year as GM), the Mets have traded exactly two prospects: LHP Mike Antonini & 3b Jefrey Marte
- neither of which was a top 30 in the system prospect at the time of the trade and in both cases for potential bench pieces in their mid 20s. Also, the Mets haven´t lost a draft pick yet for the third straight June draft, instead having the third straight draft with an extra pick (this time, for the failure to sign their # 75 overall regular 2nd rounder last year).
Now, you may question whether this front office is good at rebuilding, i.e. trading for the right prospects, drafting the right prospects, putting the right coaches in place to develop those prospects properly, etc, or not. Certainly eliminating the GCL affiliate for one year and basically ignoring the 2nd half of their 2012 draft seems questionable in that situation. And you can certainly argue that by failing to trade Jose Reyes before he left as a free agent the front office failed to maximize his value.
However, the approach – overall – has been quite consistent. Whether it works or not remains to be seen. And whether the front office is willing and able (i.e. with a higher budget) to turn around the switch from “rebuild” into “attack” mode over the next 12+ months remains to be seen too.
Michael Bourn would certainly have been a nice addition. And the contract seems moderate for a player of his caliber in today´s market. Yet, it wasn´t as if he was the missing piece in a large puzzle but instead could have been one of several missing pieces in a puzzle that´s still in its rudimentary stages.
Hi Dr. D.,
What you basically say is all true, however, you probably could figure that I have to disagree about the contention that we are seriously trying to rebuild.
Rebuilding takes more steps than just strengthening the minor leagues and without those steps it really is quite an incomplete plan – if a real plan at all. If Sandy’s baseball people are intelligent, they probably are confidentially being quite honest within themselves knowing that they have not taken the full measures required to put together a good, young team by attempting to acquire the missing pieces that cannot be resolved by the youngsters.
We already have a core of young talent that has been slowly but steadily progressing in their development. A Bourn would not have helped the Mets much but then a Borne along with signing of some other younger, quality players that addressed our needs could have made 2013 a stepping stone to better years ahead. Wheeler and d’Arnaud along with those we already have won’t be enough and to thus stop at that is indication more an indication of one who will not make serious investments in the present that could yield significantly good results in the future.
Why, so we won’t get burned financially? In the world of major league baseball, that is a liability all teams have to share if they want to have the vision to try and get ahead. That does not mean a return to the Mo Vaughan days, either.
Again, Bourn would have been a nice fit as it´s pretty obvious that the Mets will need to acquire two legit major league outfielders rather sooner than later if they want to emerge as contenders again. And those two fulltime outfielders almost certainly will not come from within the Mets organization over at least the next couple of years.
So, at some point over the next 12 months or so, the Mets will need to sign or trade for these two missing pieces. That´s besides assuming / hoping that the young talent being assembled at the major league level (and at AAA) right now is good enough to serve as a strong & lasting foundation while at the same time, the lower levels of the farm system are replenished and built-up in a way that this foundation can be fed constantly with fresh young talent to either use as trade bait or as inexpensive fill-ins at the major league level going forward. And for that very reason, making sure that the # 11 overall pick (plus the draft budget that comes with him nowadays) wasn´t going to be lost. Especially since Bourn wouldn´t have been the 28-year-old Carlos Beltran type young superstar you´d gladly give up any sort of draft pick for but rather a helpful complementary piece.
And yes, at some point over the next 12+ months the Mets will have to turn around the switch and start spending aggressively. And whatever financial limitations there used to be between 2010 all the way through 2013 won´t be a valid excuse anymore for not spending.
As of today, the projected 2014 payroll – even while offering arbitration to everyone and including salary spikes for Wright & Niese – is in the low 50s million $ range. Even by adding deferred payments to Jason Bay & others, the actual “payout” figures to be in the low 60 million $ range or among the bottom quarter of the major leagues. Plus, besides much reduced financial obligations compared to any time in recent Mets history, the Mets – like all other major league teams – will receive 10+ million $ in extra National TV funds for 2014. So, if the “break even” point may have been 75 million $ before, it´ll now be 85+ million $. Add to that an ownership group that – now – is flush again with plenty of cash – be it from SNY gains or the general restructuring of their loans, there should be ample of money left to spend.
So, the question is: How will Alderson & Co. spend it ?
Hi DrD: Ain’t that the $64,000 question? The Mets have not had a good history of getting back value for their $$$$$’s when they weree willing to spend. Maybe, it’ll be different under Alderson. But also, getting back value for $$$$$’s spent also requires good players on the market to be signed. So, if the F/A market is as thin as many say for ’14 and ’15 (except maybe for Carlos Gomez who’s a ‘nice’ piece), i think we may have to engage in the trade market more than the F/A market to take that next step.
So, our ripening farm system may be put to good use at that point.
nope…cuz by then tejada, murphy, duda and ike will be entering their 3rd year of arb…and on their way out of here..
Well, one immediate use of ‘turning the switch’ will be to re-sign our ‘keepers’ at that point, whether its all 4 of those guys or its just Ike & Duda.
With many of our A – AA level top prospects (Leathersich, Montero, Mateo, Fulmer,Syndergaard, Robles, de Grom; Ynoa, Tovar, Evans, Havens (??!)),1 – 2 levels closer to MLB, we’ll be able to swith / replace and/or trade (Gee, Edgin, Familia, Mejia, Murphy, Tejada)..
For now – except for maybe Ike if he finally has a healthy & fully productive season – we´re talking about solid complementary players such as Murphy, Gee, Parnell, Tejada and hopefully Duda who´ll become expensive in a couple of years. However, what a good farm system can bring you is solid replacements in-house.
Wilmer Flores / Phil Evans could replace Murphy by 2016 (if not earlier).
One of the plethora of current A-ball pitchers, say, Rafael Montero or Michael Fulmer, could replace Gee.
A hard-thrower such as Jake DeGrom, Cory Mazzoni or Domingo Tapia could replace Parnell by 2016.
A good defensive SS like Wilfredo Tovar or Gavin Cecchini could replace Tejada.
And since Duda is a 1bman who is placed in LF out of need, maybe a few years down the road, Brandon Nimmo or even Vincente Lup can serve as an in-house replacement by 2016.
Unlike in the past, the Mets system now has several options to choose from going forward. There will be attrition, of course. But with the increased depth, that should be made up.
The Mets have a lot of potential to improve just by getting their bullpen and outfield from atrocious to average. That´s a 10-win swing right there – without either spot having to become a true “asset”.
So, yes, the 2014 free agent class lacks true star caliber players. But right now, the Mets are running out a “Quadruple A” caliber outfield. Just by adding, say, Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart as free agents for example – which won´t cost more than 25 million $ annually for sure – you´d be adding 5+ wins structurally without getting star level talent back. Of course, trading also could be a way of improving. Then, you spend less money but need to sacrifice prospects. For the first time in several years, the Mets should have both options to choose from.