5
2013
2013 Mets Projections: Ike Davis, 1B
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Ike Davis‘ 2012 season can be summed up in just one word: inconsistent. Fans had high hopes for Davis, who many thought could rise to stardom last year. Two months in, however, people started to question whether Davis should even be on the team, as his batting average struggled to even approach .200.
Later in the season, Davis picked up the production, and his batting average gradually rose above .200. And with the hits, came the home runs. In April and May, Davis combined for just five home runs. The rest of the way, he hit 27, including nine in the month of July.
Davis was inconsistent, but overall much better after June 1, as shown by his numbers.
You can clearly see a huge difference between the Ike Davis of April and May and the Davis of the last four months of the year. He looked like a minor league player, and then all of a sudden, one of the best power hitters in the National League. His ISO (which measures a player’s raw power) of .283 from June 1 on would have been third in all of baseball had he kept that up for an entire season.
Obviously, the number one question about this huge swing that Davis went through was why. The first few months, Davis was swinging at way too many pitches, becoming too predictable and striking out at an alarmingly-high rate. He couldn’t touch (or lay off) an outside breaking ball. In June, July, and onward, he became more patient, bringing his strikeout rate to a tolerable level and raising his walk rate to a well above-average level. The other contributing factor was probably the Valley Fever that Davis came down with last offseason. He said early on that he wasn’t feeling symptoms, but fatigue from Valley Fever may have been a factor in his slow start.
Before I make my projection, let’s take a look at some of the other projections that have been made for Davis so far. ZiPS (a very conservative computer projection system) has him posting a .245/.328/.453 slash line with 21 home runs and a .208 ISO. One thing to remember, however, is that ZiPS does not take into account injuries (or sickness).
The projections made by Bill James were much different than ZiPS. James predicts that Davis will have a very good season, knocking 31 homers with a slash line of .266/.354/.511 and .245 ISO. Clearly James likes what he saw during the second half of the 2012 season.
Like James, I’m very optimistic about Davis in 2013. Now that the Valley Fever situation has passed, he should have a much better season this year. Hopefully, he learned from his mistakes last year (clearly he did based on his last four months) and will not repeat them this season. The key for Davis will be his patience. If that is there, everything else will fall into place.
2013 Projection:
.260/.345/.500, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 3.7 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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I think he’ll actually do better.
.260/.360/.550. 35hr. 102rbi
I think everyone projects his average to be way too low. Aside from his disastrous start last year this guy has traditionally been a .285-.325 hitter since he’s been in college at the different levels. I think he gets back to the .280 range.
I agree Mitch….
I think he will actually FOCUS on the BA this season and get it up to .280+ at the expense of a few HRs.
I would project him at .285 27HRs this year.
If he comes out hot to start the season and gets the BA up fast the way he did in 2011 then he may not lose the 5 HRs, relax and hit over 30 again this year.
But I think his focus on BA will require more controlled swing which usually results in fewer HRs
.260-.270, .340-.350, 28 HR, 93 RBI.
I don’t think your projection is far off the mark. I would expect to see numbers like that from Ike this season. That zips projection wasn’t very realistic at all. The only thing that concerns me about Ike is that I don’t think he’ll see as many good pitches as he saw last year in the second half with Hairston gone. Not sure Duda will do as good a job protecting him or Cowgill..
Not saying it will have a major impact by by the time the second half of the season starts d’Arnaud is likely hitting behind Ike if they haven’t found or traded for some othr RHB OFer…
Hey Connor, you forgot to add his UZR and his PPA and his -WAR% (Roll Eyes)
For all naysayers, i ‘d say this, while the rest of the mets players will be struggling to hit, i think this guy will be the lone bright spot for this lineup. i think his line this year will be top 10 MVP worthy:
285 BA 41 HR 109 RBI 375 OBP 585 Slug %
Not-so-subtle shot there Alex…
275BA/37HR/103RBI/351 OBP
said this in another thread already, but I will repost it.
Ike Davis .281 34 doubles 40 hrs 112rbi
also
David Wright .304 46 doubles 28hrs 117rbi
congrats to Ike
http://www.going9baseball.com/2012/11/20/yanks-sabathia-mets-davis-to-be-honored-with-munson-awards/
.271 42 HRs, 105 RBIs
Don’t give a crap about his OBP because as long as the above numbers or close to it are met te other stuff you can add up later. I want him hitting sac flies not walking because he’ll most likely be hitting towards the end of the strong part of the lineup.
.280, 39 HR, 108 RBI
I am certainly a fan of Ike’s and I want him to do well but some of these projections are very optimistic to say the least. 40 home runs is quite the feat, I know we are still getting over the juice numbers but its been stated here in earlier posts that 40 doesn’t happen that often anymore. The Mets do it very rarely and Citifield is not conducive to it. That being said, he certainly has the talent, I just think some people are belittling that number.
This is a very telling year for Ike.
His batting average versus left hand pitching (.174 with a .560 OPS) makes him a platoon candidate.
For all the talk about how much he improved in the second half – he hit just .228 in September.
He was getting killed last year with the outside breaking ball.
He has to cut down on the K’s, he has to hit for an overall higher average and certainly must hit better than .250 against lefties.
Will he do it? Well, it will be up to Ike now that he doesn’t have a bucket full of excuses like last year.
He has to turn it around or else he will be another guy with great potential that is out of baseball.
yep, that bucket full of excuses included missing almost his entire sophomore season after getting off to a great start. Then he gets what could have been a career ending ailment – yeah what’s wrong w/that wuss and his excuses.
He’s already hit lefties better than righties in his 1st season so I guess you were on vacation?
Hey Bayonne -
“He’s already hit lefties better than righties in his 1st season so I guess you were on vacation?”
No, not vacation – Australia.
Listen – Ike hit really well his first season against lefties. As you know it takes a while for pitchers to catch up to some hitters.
After his first season he hit .163 (.493 OPS) against lefties – albeit a small sample size – but then hit .174 (.560 OPS) against lefties last year. It’s beginning to show a pattern.
I would say that lefties currently have the book on him – throw him breaking balls outside and he will chase them. Have him looking for something outside and throw a high inside strike.
Now, he is young enough to fix that – but he has to. My point is that this coming year is pivotal for Ike. I doubt you disagree with that.