27
2013
Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, And The Reality Of How Baseball Works
An article by 
It wasn’t too long ago that when the subject of top Mets pitching prospects came up, the first two names that jumped to mind were righthanders Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia. As a matter of fact, going into the 2011 season, both were still ranked as the two best pitching prospects in the Mets system.
Anthony DiComo wrote a little about that this morning on Mets.com and it reminded me of how quickly and easily some top prospects can just fizzle and lose their shine. Some of them to be heard of no more until someone years later does a “Whatever Happened To __________”, just fill in the blank.
Not only were these particular two generating all this buzz in Mets camp, but MLB scouts everywhere were equally excited about 19-year old Mejia’s “dynamic cut fastball that made scouts dream about his future at the top of a rotation.”
And as DiComo states, it was also around this time a year ago, that all the hype in camp was surrounding Matt Harvey and Familia (Mejia was coming back from TJS) and many baseball people were profiling them as front-end starting pitchers with high impact.
Well certainly Harvey stepped up the most between the three and made a spectacular ten-game debut last season, but what about the other two?
Well more and more the discussion about Familia and Mejia seems to have them both ending up in the bullpen rather than the front end starters everyone thought they would be. Even Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen himself has said as much about each of them and has been for quite a while.
So what happened? Or maybe the better question is why does this keep happening to hundreds of top pitching prospects over the years?
The answer may not be as simple as it seems, but history does a pretty good job of explaining what goes wrong.
Most minor league pitchers can dazzle in Rookie or Developmental Leagues and suddenly out themselves on the map of many a top prospect list. Many of them continue to carry that through from Low-A tall the way to High-A. But then comes the steepest hurdle that all pitching prospects must eventually face – the jump to Double-A.
I spoke about that jump with Michael Fulmer and Steven Matz just last year, and I talked extensively about that hurdle only two weeks ago in an Interview I conducted with Jack Leathersich. It’s the jump all young pitchers look forward to because it puts them in the biggest spotlight that they’ve ever experienced in their pro careers – more visibility – and only two levels away from their dream of reaching the major leagues.
However, Double-A is also the level where many of baseball’s greatest pitching prospects have gone to pasture. Less than third of them will ever make it to the majors as the frontline starters they were projected to be, or the elite closers or setup men everyone expected.
More-so for the starters than the relievers, it comes down to the development of their secondary pitches, or adding an effective changeup. But in most of the cases it always comes down to their command and control.
In the lower levels hitters have a tendency to swing wildly and are less disciplined, but that changes as they develop and advance to the higher levels. All of a sudden these same hitters are not so easy to strike out even when you missed the strikezone wide by a foot.
I bring this up mostly because I thought about how many of our top arms have yet to get past High-A. We have a lot of great arms that will make any Met fans mouth drool including this one. We write about them on MMO every week and we follow their progress ever so closely. But this particular 2013 season is going to be a huge year with a lot riding on it for about a dozen or so of these exciting young arms – you know all the names – you know who I’m talking about.
Honestly, I would have bet the mother lode that a couple of those arms were going to be swapped for an outfielder this offseason.
The Mets have a dozen of them and I don’t believe there’s such a thing as a 14-man rotation yet, so why not deal from this strength especially coming off some great seasons in 2012? Especially because the outfield is our weakest organizational position with nothing close to major league ready or even Double-A ready. Matt den Dekker’s glove sure is, but so far his bat isn’t.
Getting back to my original point, the sad reality of what will happen with most of these pitchers and their “electric stuff”, to coin an often-used phrase from our friends at MetsBlog, is that this is what always happens with top level pitching prospects in baseball – fewer than a precious third of them will ever meet those lofty expectations.
And in the cases of Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia – though sad in how it looks to be playing out – is not anything we’ve never seen before. This is the norm. This is baseball.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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It was always said that Familia needed to control his pitches and develop his secondary stuff to reach his potential….He hasn’t. He’s never developed a good change up or bettered his control.
Mejia, well, that fastball doesn’t cut like it used to.
Lets not forget that these are two young players still and the book isn’t closed here. Dominant bullpen’s are filled with arms like these. There is nothing wrong with that.
Thanks for commenting on MMO. I’m actually glad to see you here, glad to know who you are, and I always appreciate your counterpoints to mine. We may not always see eye to eye, but we do agree on one thing which is to see this team win some more championships. Stay in touch.
Thanks for commenting on MMO”
Why do i have the feeling that you’re not Joe D? and if you are, you’re hanging with the wrong crowd, hence the disappearing of the shoutbox…
Huh?
I agree, huh?
Since when you thanks people for “Commenting” in your articles? that sounds very sarcastic coming from you… not your style.. but hey, whatever flows your boat.
HI C (pardon the bad pun),
“Familia needed to control his pitches and develop his secondary stuff to reach his potential….He hasn’t”.
That is also being said as to why Wheeler needs more time at triple-A – not that he won’t accomplish doing so, but rather than he still has to work to do on both those points.
Good article. And if you can figure out what it is specifically makes these players flame out like this, you’d be a very rich man.
Agreed that I thought I would have seen some of these arms moved for an OF. I wished they could have packaged Familia, Valdy & Mejia to get something decent in return for the OF. Familia is the best of those 3, and you hate to lose a power arm like that, but you have to give to get. The White Sox come to mind, considering they have an unsettled 2B and very right handed lineup and I think they could use some starter depth.
Also, Mejia’s apparent inability to pitch out of the BP limits him even further. Familia, so far, seems like he can handle himself out of the pen.
Once Mejia realizes he isn’t a starter, if that is the case, then he will learn to adjust to the BP if he wants a job.
He won’t. He be released and picked up on someone’s Rule 5 or he’ll be traded. Some just can’t make that transition.
Again, even if not for the Mets if he wants a job then eventually he will have to adjust if starting doesn’t work out. Just about all relievers have to go through that.
Many fine points brought up.
A farm system is a numbers game and the Mets are playing it. The fact is that many of the “electric arms” will never see the majors because of either the inability to get past A ball (or AA) or due to injury. The later will take out almost as many as the former.
Upon reaching the upper levels, highly touted pitching prospects tend to wash out due to injury if they are effective at the upper levels. Familia, thus far, hasnt shown much success at the upper levels of the farm system so he is still questionable. Mejia got hit with the injury bug so we will see how his career goes. Harvey showed success at the upper levels and in the bigs (albeit short term) so I tend to think he will perform well, maybe not like an ace, unless he gets hurt. Same with Wheeler. They both have the pitches to be successful at the major league level, something Familia still is lacking.
As for the rest, it is a crap shoot. Since all of them basically succeeded because of their arms, they are high end throwers. Can they develop into pitchers is the question? Some will. Some wont. And some will get hurt.
The bottom line is the Mets have Harvey, Wheeler, Fulmer, Syndergaard, Tapia, Montero, and a number of others in addition to Mejia and Familia. Out of that bunch we will see some starters for the Mets, relievers for them, some traded, and a bunch wash out.
I’d like to know what the Braves recipe for success is. They seem to churn out more young arms that become serviceable in the MLs than any other club. I can’t believe it’s all the luck of the draft. It must be something with their development system.
If I remember, when Glavine and Maddux and the bunch were doing their thing, there was an emphasis on pitching everyday. Something about building up the muscles and conditioning the arm. But I’ve not heard/seen anything out of the norm of late about them.
We need a spy in their camp…..
Would have thought Glavine could have shared some thoughts… That double agent!
I have my own conspiracy theories about Glavine and his time with the Mets.
Goes back to the interview they did with him in the locker room in 2006 when the Mets won the division. Looked and sounded like he wanted to be anywhere but there.
Hi srt,
Remember what I said the other day? We don’t need a computer analyist, we need a computer hacker to get into the Braves hard drive!
I think Ryan said the same thing but I am not sure either group actually follows that.
“Electric stuff” often translates as velocity or fastball movement. What is different about the current crop of A-ball pitchers in the system, and what really intrigues me, is the control that many of them have already shown. Yes, most of them need to develop or polish a third pitch, but the fact that they’re controlling their FBs is very encouraging to me. I’ll be closely watching Montero, Syndergaard, Fulmer, and Tapia this year, as well as some of the guys who were at Bklyn last year.
Wrote my comment below on Word and posted before reading your´s. Very much agree.
And that´s mainly the generally underrated part about the Mets system and the next wave of pitching prospects. And it seperates them from your average “Top 15 in a system” pitching prospect.
Between the two of you (Dave in Spain, Dr. Dooby) I now realize I have to bring my “A” Game when I write.
I’m not a writer and my style is never anything comprehensive, but mostly just some quick thoughts I like to post throughout the day. You both bring up excellent points that I do not disagree with, and especially where you both mention the excellent control a few of our pitchers have shown thus far and at such early stages of their developments. I’m glad you brought that into the discussion. And Dave, I’ve been seeing you comment on other sites for many years and I just want to say I’m glad to see you around here, and that I hope our greater attention to the minor leagues and overall quality will have you sticking around.
I’m happy to say that a scout who surveys the landscape in the DR and here in the states, has joined out staff yesterday. And while I can’t disclose which team he works for due to his confidentiality agreement with that team, he will bring an added professional point of view we don’t get to see very often on any blogs, Mets or otherwise.
In the cases of Mejia & Familia, this is basically the normal “attrition” rate you witness with pitching prospects.
Mejia was injured and now has lesser stuff than prior to the injury. His dominance came from a cutter that moved in a similar way to Mariano Rivera´s. That movement – for now – seems to be gone. His other pitches were never all that special to begin with. And his command never was all that good. At this point, I´d be surprised if Mejia has a long major league career – unless he re-discovers the movement on his cutter / fastball and improves his command & secondary pitches. Without the movement, Mejia may not be a better prospect than someone like Elvin Ramirez who also throws hard with shaky command. Sometimes these sort of pitchers still become quality relievers. More often, they end up as Manny Acosta or Brian Stokes types. Pitchers with a straight mid 90s fastball and little else.
Familia has never had the command you´d want from a SP and in spite of over 550+ innings in the minors has failed to develop an even adequate off-speed pitch which in combination makes it seem impossible for him to get through a major league lineup multiple times on a manageable pitch count. He´s clearly destined for the bullpen. How well he´ll do there depends on his makeup and whether he is able to be at least somewhat consistent with his fastball and breaking pitch while scratching everything else and letting loose. The upside for a dominant reliever certainly is there. And for now, the odds to reach it are higher than with Mejia.
What seperates Harvey & Wheeler from Mejia & Familia besides more success at the upper levels is a more diverse repertoire and better command – even if that is still below the level you´d like it to be for them to realize the elite SP ceiling both have. Plus – knock on wood – no injury issues thus far.
The most exciting part of the plethora of A-ball pitching prospects currently in the pipeline – besides the sheer number of them – is the combination of generally above average fastballs and above average command of it and at least one secondary pitch relative to age, level of play and experience. While natural attrition will take some of them out of the running, they probably have a better chance of making it than some peers with lesser control. And if you have over a dozen tickets in the lottery, your odds to win increase vs. just having a handful like most teams or the Mets of past years.
Location, location, location = command, command, command = success, success, success. That and a pair of brass ones and you’ve got a keeper.
OffTopic:
@MartinoNYDN
Hearing that Zack Wheeler will be scratched from his start today because of an oblique injury that happened while hitting in cage….
https://twitter.com/MartinoNYDN/statuses/306804422976081920
I just saw that too, which begs the question… We are using the DH in spring games, why was he in the cage? Yes I know all teams let their pitchers swing away in the spring. But with your number one prospect I would suspect handling him a little differently would be in order.
Joe D come on we all know this is just the Mets trying to protect Wheeler from having to face the guy he was traded for and have to live with the possibility that if Beltran torches him the media will have a field day with it. Much better to just have him fake a mild oblique strain and excuse himself.
In all seriousness though I guess they eventually have to take BP so I don’t see why not to do so in camp. The good thing is that it sounds like it’s a mild strain at least the intitial reports suggest that but more importantly that it’s not his arm.
Hi Joe,
Am sure you know that because he is not pitching in the junior circuit that he has to practice on hitting and bunting just so he doesn’t become another Dean Chance – who hit a lifetime .066 in over 406 games including an .026 in 41 games in 1966. A right handed batter, Chance was so bad that one time against the Yankees he came up to the plate batting left-handed!
Joe D.,
Solid article and at this time of year, with all the “irrational exuberance” around spring training, this can’t be repeated enough. This essentially justifies the “bird in the hand” approach when pursuing elite MLB talent.
Last Year at this time Gorski was one of the top prospects until he went to AA. That why I wont get to excited about the tapias and fullmers just yet.