6
2013
Hits & Misses: Trading Santana, More On Bourn, A Little On Collins
An article by 
The top story for the Mets continues to be Michael Bourn – will he sign or won’t he? Will MLB protect the pick or won’t they. There are good arguments to be made on both sides, but the bottom line is that ultimately Bourn will go wherever he wants to play, be it the Mets, the Indians or any other team that may be in the mix. Sometimes players want to play in a particular region of the country and it isn’t always about the money.
One thing that has become clear to me is that if Bourn does sign with the Mets the front office will be overpaying him to sign on the dotted line. It’s a risk the team is willing to take given the sad state of affairs in the current outfield and the fact that the minors holds little promise to remedy the situation in the next two years. It may have been prudent to have taken a more aggressive approach to the outfield dilemma as soon as the offseason began rather than waiting so long to make a move or show any interest in fixing the situation. But that’s all water under the bridge now and the fact remains the the current outfield hasn’t even one player with a full season of experience under his belt. I can’t say I ever recall a similar situation in the history of the franchise.
* * * * * * * *
Terry Collins is not worried about his contract status, and he doesn’t believe it will be an issue this season, he told Kevin Kernan of the New York Post.
“I don’t want anything to take away from what we’re trying to do,” Collins said.
Collins is a good and decent person and I know he won’t make this an issue, but I don’t know anybody who isn’t always concerned about their job – especially when there’s an October 30th expiration date stamped on it.
It may not be a big concern for Terry now with spring training approaching, but I’m sure the psychological toll will present itself if the team doesn’t get off to a great start. Once you start hearing the cries that “the players have given up on Terry,” watch and see how quickly this issue will come to the forefront. That’s just the way it works in baseball. The general manager is charged with what you see on the field, but no matter how poorly the team is constructed, when they start to play bad the blame always goes to the manager first. All the best this season, Terry.
* * * * * * * *
I keep getting one or two emails every week asking me whether the Mets will trade Johan Santana. It’s not as easy as you may think. For one, he’s owed $31 million in total by the Mets. Even if the Mets were to eat half of that, which they will be very reluctant to to do, the other team still takes on huge amounts of cash and risk.
With the new CBA the new team won’t get any draft pick compensation whether they make Santana a qualifying offer or not. Additionally, there’s the matter of Santana’s no-trade clause. Oh sure, Johan could accept a trade, but he could very well insist that the 2014 option for $25 million be guaranteed like some other players have done under similar circumstances. So that’s another potential stumbling block to a potential trade.
Then of course there is the matter of the return. What if you were to find a team that would take on half of that contract and the possibly of that gigantic option year as well?
The most you would probably get is a K-Rod-like return or in other words two fringe or marginal prospects.
And all of this is assuming that Johan Santana is 100% healthy and pitching effectively by the deadline. I emailed the Mets about his health on Monday and I’ve yet to receive a response.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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I am of the opinion that one of the reasons the Mets are even considering Bourn is because his price may have come down. It remains to be seen but I’ll be surprised if the Mets give him something like a 5yr $75M contract.
I don’t think the Mets have even considered trading Santana before the season. His contract coupled with his injuries have hurt his value in the short run. He needs to come out and prove he is healthy and still able to be a top of the rotation, dominate pitcher over the first half of the year.
The amount owed him will be considerably less than $31 million by mid-season.
Supposedly Jon Daniels said they have no plans for any major acquisitions. Bourne would easily sign with Texas who lost out on Grenkie, Upton and their own Josh Hamilton. Not to mention Dickey, TAD or even JP to replace Napoli. I believe at trading deadline Stanton goes to Texas. Besides Bourn lives in Texas, I believe Houston not Dallas.
So it comes down to Mets, Indians and Mariners. As Ursala says in life you have tough choices. I try to be unbiased but I believe Bourn can help the Mets more than the Indians or Mariners. Sandy had a responsibility for 2013 team and not just 2014 and beyond. Four years no options @15M per year is about the FMV. Tough choice for Bourn but easy choice for Sandy. Do it, get it done.
I think that is way more than FMV (4/60). pagan got 4/40, and Vickey 3/36, and those are proably the closest comps right now.
I would say 3/36 to 3/39 is more like what they would be offering.
You could be right but if I was on the “Price is Right” that would be my bid.
I really think that Pagan is the best comp right now. Their numbers aren´t far apart, nor are their ages. The demand of 5/75 for Bourn in light of Pagan´s 4/40, along with draft pick loss, is why he´s still available. Also, most big market teams are set at CF. I think once pitchers and catchers report next week Bourn will start to get antsy and will lower his demands or just accept the Mets´ offer. Then a delay for MLB to rule on the draft pick…. I´m also guessing that he´s wondering what happens if MLB rules against the Mets and the Mets withdraw the offer. Where does he go then?
This argument becomes meaningless if Johan comes back from the WBC with his arm in a sling.
No way can you pay Bourn 5 years 75mil. I know our OF sucks, but that is just a slap in the face of everything that Alderson and his Super Friends are supposed to be all about!
No power and has only sniffed .300 once in his career? He’s a decent glove with speed and can draw a walk, but is that really worth 51mil for five years?
Omar made some bad moves, they were more risky than anything…but if injury didn’t happen it would have been a good deal. If Bourn follows a normal progression of decline, he’ll still never be worth that deal.
I like him, but not at that price and not in contradiction of all the values this FO has stood by as they dismantled this team and failed to add to it when it needed it the most.
he really does not have upside over what he did in 2012. more like that is his ceiling now (odds are), so you better be comfortable paying for a bit less than that as the expected output.
“I don’t want anything to take away from what we’re trying to do,” Collins said.”
Which is what?? Get that #1 pick in the 2014 draft??
Hi Alex,
After two years under Sandy, it seems Terry now gets the idea.
Bourn does not have a decent glove,, he has a gold glove. 3 years and no giving up the draft pick, maybe some options, otherwise take a hike.
Regarding Collins,
I really dont expect him to be back next year. I am pretty sure that Alderson promised Wally the job in 2014 to keep him in the fold one more year. I wont cry for Terry if he loses his job as I am sure he wont be applying for unemployment benefits.
My guess is that he will be re-assigned into the system, much along the lines of what he was doing before hand. If memory serves, he mentioned about not wanting to manage forever anyway.
I agree. I remember when they were looking to replace Jerry, and there were quotes from him that he had no desire to manage again anyway, and seemed real happy in his org development role. So going back to that, if not retirement, is highly likely.
the NTC doesn’t matter at this point anyway since he is a 5/10 guy by now. So he would have the block power regardless.
Trading him, depends entirely on how well he is doing and how desperate some team is for a SP.
the money is easy enough to work out, and they could easily do what they did with beltran. Eat the money they are on the hook for anyway, and get real talent back. If they go the KRod route and get a team to take on a lot more of the money, than no, they won’t get much back other than the salary relief.
“With the new CBA the new team won’t get any draft pick compensation unless they make Santana a qualifying offer of about $15 million for the 2014 season. I don’t think there’s a team out there that would take that chance.”
Wouldn’t this be true only if Johan is dealt before the season started? If a player is dealt in-season, the new team doesn’t get draft picks even if they make a qualifying offer (which they wouldn’t bother to do in these cases.)
You are correct, sir. Also, the part about Santana negotiating for a no-trade clause in his contract is a waste of words since Santana now has 10/5 rights. He’ll be a tough trade, no doubt, but if the Mets can do it and save money while giving a younger arm some big league innings, then I don’t see any downside regardless of the players brought back. Any player they get in a trade would just be gravy.
It will be difficult to trade Santana but not impossible….
It will have to be to a team that is contending and needs a pitcher.
We won’t get much back for him but it will uncomplicate the situation next offseason.
I’m not sure we would even get a comp pick if we let him leave with the option in place.
Not sure you can deny the option and then make a qualifying offer after the fact.
So getting anything for him is probably better than going into the offseason with him.
As for Terry he will be the next casualty in the BUYING TIME agenda that tripped up and cost us Dickey.
A new manager will give them another two years to say “Give him Time to instill his managerial philosophy” while Sandy GMs the team to the top of the draft picks to do what he )and others) CLAIM he has been doing for the last two years.
That’s an interesting question on whether you can decline an option and still make a qualifying offer. A quick google search says you can still do it, and teams could have done it under previous rules. Now a better question would be can you trade a player that accepts a qualifying offer if he had a not trade clause in his previous contract.
Hi Joe D.,
“…..the fact remains the the current outfield hasn’t even one player with a full season of experience under his belt. I can’t say I ever recall a similar situation in the history of the franchise.”
Technically you are right, for even though Lucas Duda has almost 900 plate appearances in the majors, he did have those two small stints in the minors each of the past two seasons.
At this point I would love to go into the season just with our original outfield alignment that first game in Sportsman Park back in 1962 – Thomas, Ashburn and Bell – even at the stages their careers were at the time.
Thomas had more homers that year than the entire Mets outfield in 2012. Plus I dont think anyone will bat .300 like Ashburn did.
Hi Joe D.,
Frank had 32 that season and since we no longer have Hairston, I think you are right again. Of course, Frank loved hitting in the Polo Grounds with those short distances down the line.
Though he hit .306, Ashburn did not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting leaders yet the Mets always had him listed as their all-time batting champ till Cleon hit his .340 in 1969.
By July 31, Santana will have just under $9M left on his $25M base contract to pay off. Plus the $5.5M buyout of the option — which no club in their right mind would excercise. Any club receiving Santana would want to — at the very least — get sufficient cash to cover the cost of the buyout. Let’s say the $9M is too much for a club in the hunt to eat. If Santana’s having a strong year and the Mets eat $3-$4M of the rest of the salary along w/the buyout money, I could see him being moved.
While Santana might love some guarantee of his option being picked up, there’s just no way — even if he had a killer year — that option gets exercised.
The other trading deadline option that would be appealing to another club at midseason if the Mets are out of it is Marcum.
Your opening paragraph is ridiculous, Why? It is the middle of February and Bourne hasn’t signed, you think that’s because he hasn’t decided where HE wants to play. No one wants to pay him and give up draft compensation, Bourne is not going where he wants he’s going to who ever offers the most
Perhaps, but who’s to say he wouldn’t take a slight discount to not play in Seattle? Or maybe he’d take a little less to avoid playing in “The Mistake by the Lake”. Regardless, just because it’s February doesn’t mean there aren’t cities in which he’d rather not play. It also doesn’t mean that he won’t use teams to jack up his price even if he has no intentions of playing for some of those teams.
Joe D, great edit to the Santana part. It’s much more concise and accurate now. There’s another blog in existence about the Mets that could really take a cue from you. Anyway, you have a great site that’s one of, if not the best blog about the Mets out there, and I appreciate the efforts of you and all the other contributors.