Lets Go Mets!

Looking for Ike, and Harvey, to have monster years…Duda and D’Arnaud to have huge breakout years, and Wheeler to have a dominant debut when he’s brought up after the all-star break….D Wright gonna give us his .300/25/100, and you pretty much know what we’re gonna get out of Tejada and Murphy. And lets hope Neise and Gee improve, and the newly assembled holds it down.

We will be competing for a wild card spot come Sept.

They are keeping Payroll static this year and they will draw less people unless a Miracle happens this year…And they become world beaters

If they lose money this year they will not spend a penny next year….None of this buying you are hanging your hopes on will occurr.

And to hope the 10 Measly million (that wouldn’t even get you Victorino for a year) is going to offset the losses is just overly optimistic…

I don’t fault you for that just saying it is hardly based in any reality of business sense.

However, the new National TV deal that kicks in to start 2014 will add significant revenue to the Mets – from what I´ve gathered significantly more than 10 million per year starting 2014. So, even if attendance / Mets revenue declines again this year (unlikely with ASG packages), the new TV deal will more than make up for it and actually create more income than there is in 2013. And if spring 2014 is about more hope – a young & promising core in the majors, plus a few bigger name additions in the winter of 2013/2014 thanks to plenty of payroll space – then attencance may not decrease at all compared to 2013 or 2012 standards.

So, if in 2012, sporting a 95 million $ payroll led to operating losses of 23 million, sporting an 85 million $ payroll in 2014 figures to be more or less break-even (counting additional revenue due to the National TV deal that goes directly to the Mets and no other Wilpon entety). Of course, 85 million is still well below what it should be for this franchise. And it doesn´t count huge gains the Wilpons would receive for their majority shares in SNY.

And again, counting projected 2014 salaries for the current Mets, you get to somewhere between 50 and 55 million – depending on how high the raises for Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell, Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee and Lucas Duda end up being in arbitration. So, no matter how you turn it, for the first time in 4+ years there won´t be any sort of payroll limitation excuse. And with the first wave of young talent likely to have reached the majors for good, the “we´re rebuilding” excuse (even if not publically stated) won´t apply anymore either.

A point you seem to forget dooby…You count the bills but the bills don’t dictate how much you can spend the REVENUE DOES!

Even leaving out SNY – a very profitable entety very close to the Mets that makes major gains every year and has the upside of much much higher gains if the Mets do well and thus an incentive for the Mets to do well – the Mets as an isolated entety can easily field an 85 million $ payroll in 2014 and probably break even, without needing any sort of boost from ownership ( via their tremendous SNY gains). And that’s merely assuming the Mets perform as a .500ish team without any realistic contention hopes.

So, even by this very conservative measure, there’s an easy 30+ million $ available next winter to spend on upgrading the team shortterm. If the Wilpons are willing to re- invest some of their SNY gains, that opens up another 20+ million $ to spend – though considering the recent frugal approach, I wouldn’t even expect that much.

And the financial idea behind this resetting of the payroll is that with winning more games, attendance will rise again, allowing for a higher payroll going forward with higher revenue.
So, while 85 million may be the ” break even” point in 2014, that could easil jump in 20 million $ steps on a year-to- year basis as the Mets perform better on the field.
Thus, it should be no issue sporting a 125 million $ payroll again by 2016 for example, probably even higher going forward. So, if Harvey, Wheeler and d’ Arnaud or Ike perform well, there won’t be a problem compensating them and keeping them around longterm.

That’s the entire idea in theory. Whether it works on the field remains to be seen.

Pitching & Defense, Defense, Defense, etc.

A. I would let the OF’s battle it out in Spring and see who emerges.
I would rate the players in this order 1. Defense 2. Batting Avg.
3.On base % / Baserunning. I would De – Emphasize HR’s because this results in too many SO’s and could lead to temptations to use PED’s. If you do #1-3 well the RBI’s will come.
Hopefully some OF’s will get hot in the spring and you can use that to help you get off to a good start in the win column. (Even if Duda hits he’s a terrible OF/ He will kill their defense)

B. To Terry Collins: I like the way Bobby Valentine managed the Mets during his era with a LOT of platooning to keep players fresh, involve the bench and smart baserunning and the hit & run. I think way the SF Giants play is a good style for the Mets to try to emulate.

C. Hopefully the Starters will grow and develop Niese, Harvey, etc and the bullpen is improved. I would try to give establish defined roles for the relievers, once you can sort out who is more reliable.

D. Lastly If I was Alderson I would try to pry an outfielder away from the Tigers e.g. Dirks, Brantley, Boesch OR Indians Brantley for a B- prospect package if possible. (Mookie/Dykstra lite type)
Coco Crisp, Grady Sizemore and some others might work as a plan B.

That’s what I would do …….. Ya Gotta Believe

After all the times the Mets said they would they have the money to spend and never did, and for all the times it was found that their financial situation was much worse than lead on, I would hold off judgement about when the Mets will start having the money to spend again until we actually see serious movements – and with that, I don’t mean something that might be for show as per the points I raised above regarding Bourn.

And even if we do have the money to spend, remember Sandy said that doesn’t mean that he will spend it. Oh, how I would have loved to have seen Boras accept Sandy’s offer just to see if he was bluffing.

Brantley: .278/.335/.394/.729
Mystery OF: .277/.332/.401/.733

Eerily similar, isn’t it?

What if I told you that mystery OF was Angel Pagan? He’s not bad or terrible as you proclaim him to be defensively. Again, Cleveland is not making him run. Stop acting like they’ve been a competent ballclub because they’re anything but. Would you run a man who was 46/51 (90% success rate) in SB attempts in AAA more often or less? Just like I thought. Only thing that’s pitiful is having him run 12-21 times a season when he can fly.

“He made a four-year, $48 million offer to Michael Bourn that didn’t get done when Alderson wouldn’t relent on a vesting fifth-year option.”

This is what upsets me not with Bowden personally but when a story is so simplified that it creates a perception which when vetting deeper raises questions that need to be answered and thus the story still remains open rather than be concluded.

I’m referring to motives. Sandy was making an offer knowing he would not relent on the fifth year option and would not guarantee contingent upon retaining that protected draft choice in which a decision would not be known for two to three weeks later. He also knew he was bidding against other teams.

Why does one still pursue negotiations knowing either one or both of those terms would be unacceptable by the other party? What is the motivation? Why also did he pass up on others that he could have signed for less money? There were also trades made that didn’t strip an organization of it’s top prospects as well. Why weren’t these avenues looked at more seriously.

As a lawyer, Sandy is fully aware of what planting an idea in one’s head (this case, the heads of the fan base) can do. Was it again for show? Don’t forget this coincides with Fred Wilpon’s acknowledging the family is on better financial footing now – which does not mean the Mets are.

There are also so many elements leading to the eventual Bourn signing with Cleveland that Sandy was aware of as far as restrictions or non-restrictions faced by other teams he was bidding against – not just for Bourn but possibly others before him.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cleveland-indians-michael-bourn-takes-longer-than-expected-to-land-with-new-team-scott-boras-021513

I’m sorry, but with all the stories planted before by the Mets and way too long to repeat once again I cannot believe this talk with Boras was anymore than for show. This is based not only on Rosenthal’s report above but on the actions taken or not take and philosophy espoused by this general manager. That is why I do not take the report by ESPN Insider too seriously. The Mets could have taken actions beforehand and didn’t. We know Sandy has been misleading with his statements in the past.

George Steinbrenner, the Barnum and Bailey of baseball, would have been proud.

And people will continue to search for Bigfoot and Loch Nessy as well….

He had a shot to get a pretty good holdover for the next 3 years that would also take care of his leadoff, CF and add some power….

The price was 13 Mil per year for 3 years….
He would be an FA and tradeable right around the time Nimmo was poised to get promoted if he doesn’t have any further setbacks.

My feeling is Duda will have a good year at the plate; good enough to overshadow his pathetic defense.

Also, I think the Mets have an answer in CF….someone between Kirk, Den Dekker, and Cowgill will emerge as a decent player.

RF needs helps. Baxter, in my view, is a bench player. I am not real high on Brown etal so finding a decent player out of that bunch is going to be difficult.

I would feel better if 2 out of the CF bunch produced but I dont believe that either. But I tend to agree with playing the numbers game at this point. I do not think the Mets will go 0 for 8 or 9 out there (however many guys are competing for jobs).