Feb
8
2013

FanGraphs: Dickey Trade Ranks No. 5 Among Best Offseason Deals

An article by Craig Lerner

FanGraphs ranked what they believed were the ten best deals of the offseason. Taking the top spot at No. 1 was the Washington Nationals who acquired Denard Span from Minnesota for what they say was one A-Ball pitching prospect who may or may not be able to stick in the rotation long term.

Ranked at No. 5 was this deal:

The Mets acquire Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, and Wuilmer Becerra from Toronto.

As I said above, I like this deal for Toronto, and I think there was a case to be made for the Mets keeping Dickey signing him to an extension themselves. But, in D’Arnaud and Syndergaard, they were able to get a couple of pieces in return that could have much more long term value to the Mets, and D’Arnaud is close enough to the Majors that they could start seeing a return on the move this season. Because Dickey was willing to take a discount on an extension, the Mets were able to pry a premium return from Toronto, and having these two guys around is probably better for their future than having Dickey under contract through his age 40 season. This wasn’t the Mets only option, but when you see what they were able to command in exchange for the reigning Cy Young winner, it makes the decision to trade him more understandable.

I gotta tell you… I’m betting that in one year they will look back at this and find that this Dickey deal was actually the best deal made in the 2012-2013 offseason.

About the Author: Craig Lerner

I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.

16 Comments + Add Comment

TRS86 February 8, 2013 at 1:14 pm

Craig, the link for fangraphs article actually takes you to the baseball reference page for TDA.
- Craig Lerner February 8, 2013 at 1:22 pm
  
  Ha ha, I was just checking to see how sharp you guys are. Fixed it, thanks. Oh and yes, that list is pretty questionable. It’s not their best work.
TRS86 February 8, 2013 at 1:17 pm

Good god, never mind. That article is trash. It actually ranks the signing of Melky as the #2 deal of the off-season. For who?
- Cackle tat February 8, 2013 at 5:38 pm
  
  1. Did you read the blurb?
  2. Even if you disagree with that the rest of the list is good.
van February 8, 2013 at 1:25 pm

this was one of those deals were it could end up being rated the best for either team, or even both.

and man, that is all that Span went for? I thought it was a pretty hefty return for him? maybe he isn’t as good as I thought. Will have to go look back at that one.
dudley February 8, 2013 at 1:27 pm

Prospects are like daffodils, here in the spring but gone in the summer.
- Alex68 February 8, 2013 at 1:45 pm
  
  THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  
  That ls why it’s absurd to bank all your eggs on prospects. that’s suicide to do that, ask the pirates and the royals how they’ve been doing the past 20 years…
  - Donal February 8, 2013 at 1:46 pm
    
    And going all in on other teams’ players has gone swimmingly for us.
  - Alex68 February 8, 2013 at 1:56 pm
    
    Right, because for 50 years that’s what we’ve been doing right:?? How much of an idiot is proven with comments like that. 50 years of the franchise, 7 playoffs appearances, 2 WS rings. and all those 43 years we’ve missed the playoffs is because we go all in on other teams FA right? if you’ve only seen that in your existence of being a mets fans then i am sorry for you, but we’ve tried all kinds of method, FA, prospects, trades, 86% of the time hasn’t worked either way, but it is even STUPIDIER to bank on prospects to fill a team…
    - Sloatsburg Mets Fan February 8, 2013 at 2:53 pm
      
      How? Please explain how you’ve come to your conclusion. How are you determining you hierarchy of STUPIDNESS? You must have used some type of fact based theories or since you’ve stated all these crazy percentages you must have used some educated metrics? Or are you just disagree to disagree?
Joey D. February 8, 2013 at 4:22 pm

No trade can be looked at as being good or bad until a few seasons later. And even more so when it comes to a big star for prospects. All I ask is if the Mets don’t win due to Wheeler or d’Arnaud not being major forces (and that includes fading out the last few weeks of the season) I hope the rationale won’t be that Sandy took the right measures and they just didn’t work out.
- Boomer February 8, 2013 at 5:40 pm
  
  I assume you are holding the Jays FO to the same standard. What if Dickey’s performance drops off appreciably or he gets hurt? I keep hearing people talk about Dickey winning the CY but that was last season. Past performance is no guarantee of future success.
  - Bayonne Mets Fan February 8, 2013 at 5:43 pm
    
    But when you pitch very well for 3 straight years there’s no reason not to expect he will pitch well again. But you’re right, he may suffer from a drop off from his Cy Young season and only go 16-8 with a 3.88 ERA in the AL.
Sloatsburg Mets Fan February 8, 2013 at 5:32 pm

Joe

I agree that trades can’t be measured for a few years. What do you suggest the rationale be? I’m not being snarky it just sounds like you’re saying on one hand that it takes time for these players to develop but then saying that if they falter a bit now, Sandy failed.
- Joey D. February 8, 2013 at 6:43 pm
  
  Hi Sloats,
  
  I would just rather have new trades evaluated in potential no matter how enthusiastic or sour one might feel about rather than already being crowned a success. That was not what Fangraphs was guilty of, however, the way the banner was worded – with the trade being ranked as the fifth best deal made this year – implied fangraphs was already making a conclusion which wasn’t the case.
  
  Same with the Wheeler-Beltran trade. He hasn’t thrown a pitch yet in the majors while the front office threw the team under the bus but Sandy has is being lauded because we were going nowhere in 2011. I was against it not because of the players involved but because of what I felt was a principle of competitive integrity. If anyone caught last night’s replay of the Pagan game one would have been reminded of how great the team was playing – not based on the fact that the Mets had won that ballgame – but how the Mets had fought back twice that evening with Gary, Keith and Ron reminding us how typical that had been with the team playing great ball since that awful start and without their two top hitters.
  
  The replay showed how much the fan base was pumped up about the team. It would also be interesting to go back to posts to actually see how many here at MMO weren’t feeling the same way at that time.
  
  So
  
  I still remember the praises we first got for Joey Foy followed by Jim Fregosi.
RandomGuy February 8, 2013 at 5:50 pm

While I believe Travis and Noah will both help us alot down the road, Dickey will continue putting up the same numbers in Toronto that he did the last 3 seasons. Matter of fact, his mastery of the knuckleball will only get better in Toronto, remember, he did everything INJURED this last season. Dickey will probably have a Cy Young Award in both leagues at the end of his career.

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