11
2013
DiComo: Mets Keep Their Cursed 11th Overall Pick
An article by 72MetsFan
This comment from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, kind of put things into perspective for me, or at the very least it gives one pause to consider what just happened tonight.
So what exactly did the Mets fight to keep? The 11th overall Draft pick has a bizarre history of busts relative to the picks around it. Of the 48 players in history taken 11th overall, only five have amassed more than 10 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference (though two of them, Andrew McCutchen and Max Scherzer, are active and in their primes).
Seventeen of the 48 players never made the Majors, and 10 of those who did finished with negative career WAR.
Wow, I feel like someone just poured a bucket of ice water over my head.
As DiComo concludes, the Mets may fare a whole lot better with the 11th overall pick this year as compared to the last 48 years of the draft, but seriously, what an eye-opener.
You can read the full post here and you can also follow Mr. DiComo on Twitter at @AnthonyDiComo.
About the Author: Drew Staley
On June 1, 2012 Johan Santana officially became my favorite current Met! I'm a Queens native who grew up in the shadows of Big Shea. I was a huge Ron Darling, Dave Magadan and John Olerud fan. Honored to be a part of such a great site for Mets fans. Ya Gotta Believe!
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This might be the worst story in the history of sports blogs…I am dumber for reading it and even dumber for commenting in it!!!
If the 11th pick is so bad…do you suggest the mets trade it for the 12th pick straight up?
If you’re dumber for commenting in it, then you’ve just willingly decreased your intelligence.
That being said, lighten up man. No reason to get so worked up over this.
You’re an idiot.
We can not sign the 11th pick and automatically get the 12th pick next year. Trading the 11th pick will take a year anyways since we have to hold on to it for that period.
sounds like the 11th pick is due for an all-star
Actually, this post is extremely insightful.
Historically, the 11th pick has been ho-hum at best ….. only 5 of 48 (10.4%) of the players have been serviceable ….. so, unless this 11th pick morphs into someone equal or better to what Bourn is right now, this was a stupid move.
This team needs a centerfielder and lead-off guy — which Bourn is. ,
I completely agree with the point of the post ….. no offense Fernando, but a bit harsh I would say.
It’s not just the 11th pick though. It’s the money in the pool they have they would have lost as well.
Nailed it. Nice work.
What sucks though?? This is what we have come down to. Our owners are still billionaires unwilling to spend below average payroll for a team in the country’s biggest market. Our team keeps losing elite level talent and more and more games each year. But hey…we kept our allocation money for kids or a kid that may or may not work out in 3-5 years. Yay us.
What makes you so sure they won’t bank $1.2 million like in the last draft? Anyone express concern over that?
Three of the past nine # 11 overall June picks have become average to well above average major leaguers:
OF Andrew McCutchen (2005)
RH Max Scherzer (2006)
2b Neil Walker (2004)
Oakland A´s 2012 1st rounder , 11th overall Addison Russell is a Top 50 in Baseball prospect right now. Houston Astros OF George Springer (2011), is a consensus Top 100 prospect in Baseball right now.
And while 1b Justin Smoak (2008) looks like a “bust”, he did serve as the centerpiece to acquire Cliff Lee at the July 2010 trade deadline for the Texas Rangers.
2010 pick Deck McGuire (TOR) was considered a “safe” low ceiling pick that year – LH Chris Sale got picked at # 13 overall that year and was widely regarded as the better prospect.
LH Tyler Matzek (2009) has been up & down and looks more like a “bust”.
RH Phillippe Aumont (2007) also was included in a trade for Cliff Lee a couple of years ago by the way and looks like a future setup reliever…
And these picks, except for Russell were made isolated from a draft budget.
So the decision to hold onto this pick certainly makes a lot of sense.
And the statement about the “cursed” # 11 pick is about as useful as pointing out that Harvey & Wheeler are bound to fail in a big way with the Mets because Paul Wilson & Jason Isringhausen also didn´t end up reaching expectations….
Still, would have been nice to get Bourn, IMHO.
Sigh……. Whether is the 11th pick or the 3rd pick, let’s not forget who’s the guy picking the players. Depodesta. who’s track records of draft picks is amongst (if not) the worst in baseball..
Wow Alex, that’s a certifiable and undeniable fact. When did you start following draft records and Team Draft to MLB percentages?
Lmao, quite frankly maniac, petey pete and you have made me look into it more carefully, also, the fact that the sabergooners who love alderson try to look for little insignificant things to praise their lord, so i figure to sabotage their dreams as well.. .All hail THE CORE!
‘so i figure to sabotage their dreams as well’….LOL, really?
Aren’t all Met fans dreams the same?
SRT, by now you should know they aren’t.. Evidently some fans are content with mediocrecy and draft picks, while the rest of us want to win… now i’ve seen championships and celebrated it, others have not been so lucky yet they’re still insist that a phylosophy that hasn’t won shi* is the way to go about baseball business to win a championship just because they love crunching numbers
Bah…Can’t speak for anyone else but I’m not content with mediocrity.
I sincerely hope the plan is to build a long sustaining type contending team.
I love baseball and love my Mets but dang….would much prefer watching the season unfold as if we have a realistic chance of playing Oct. baseball.
Ok, so tell me the true. what are your thoughts and expectations of the team, and please provide your prediction..
Prediction for this year? Think I’ve already posted that (maybe it wasn’t here?) but I’m thinking right around same for last season – maybe a couple of Ws more. I’m going with 77 wins.
Although anyone who knows me knows I hate making predictions this early.
I’m excited to see Harvey’s first full season, Ike’s first full healthy season (fingers crossed), and the debuts of Wheeler and TAD. When was the last time we had 2 top prospects debuting in the same season?
The OF…yup, it’s looking pretty bad right now. Can’t get much worse, so here’s hoping a player or two steps up. Maybe Duda will come out of the gate raking so living with his defense will be doable. Although, I more suspect that will be a failed experiment and we’ll have a different LF come mid season.
It’s just so hard to predict wins within anything more than a 5 game +- so many things can happen during the year.
I say 71-81 wins so if that is cheating I will stay 76 I guess.
Alex68 — So now you’re claiming that you know that some fans want mediocrity. You have an inexhaustible supply of hubris. There is little evidence your hubris is justified. Other than spewing derogatory insults, why don’t you prove your case?
LMAO, greatest ID name ever… The CORE salute you….to answer your question, anyone who until this point keeps defending sandy obviously want mediocrity, there’s your answer
Look the #10 pick and the #15 pick and the #7 pick it’s not some magical formula that the #11 pick is bound to stink or be good any more than the #15 pick. It’s just a number. Unless you are picking in the say top 3 then there is obviously more risk.
Methinks you don’t understand how curses work. The slots you mentioned doesn’t take away from the curse of the #11 pick. Assuming you believe in that sort of stuff.
TRS has a problem with things like this. When the movie Friday the 13th came out, he actually wrote the producers and said people get killed by machete wielding killers on Sundays and Wednesdays too. LOL
Sorry, I completely understand and that’s why I said there is no magic formula.
I feel sorry for whomever the Mets select with that #11 pick. This might be the most anticipated Mets draft selection of all time. Don’t flub it, DePo. June 6th, be there or be square.
It really doesn’t matter what or where the pick was….
It really comes down to…
Are you less than 4 years away from competing or not?
Some seem to think the team is NOT READY to warrant signing a guy and losing that pick.
Maybe they are right about that THIS year….But what about the next 3 after this year?
Will we continue to be NOT READY to build around the core for the next 3-4 years?
If so then whatever core you have now is not going to last long enough to get you the competitve team your hoping for in 4 years time. Most of those kids will be Arb eligible where the price goes WAY up every year and the rest will be FA where the money makes you want to trade them away.
If you DO however believe that we MAYBE ready to start spending and building around the core NEXT YEAR or the year after then that pick is NOT as important as you might think until it becomes a top 5 pick where you have a pretty good choice of the cream of the crop to choose from. Those picks are the kind you hold onto for dear life But barring that the pick will do nothing for you the next 4 years at all. And in the end a Top 10 Pick would be protected anyway so it’s not an issue at all is it?
In regards to the 11th pick being cursed well I don’t buy into supernatural explanations…The pick will only ever be as good as the person picking them was at doing thier homework. What is clear is that the gap in talent between the top5 and the rest is a lot bigger than anyone would believe.
Some of the issues could even be due to the fact that some teams will do EVERYTHING possible, Make any excuse neccesary and go OUT OF THEIR WAY to make a top 10 pick get to the big leagues so they don’t look dumb for making the pick.
being the 11th pick probably does not get that kind of backing and push to succeed.
The bottomline here is no matter how good that pick might be it’s not good for another 4 years.
And it’s find to hold on dearly to that pick if you think the next 4 years are not going to amount to anything.
But if you do then that pick cost you someone who could HELP to make those next 4 years better and meaningful. SO your punting on the next three years to keep a pick that is nothing more than a MAYBE in 4 years.
Not smart! Especially considering they had until June to try and get that pick back after signing Bourn.
People have to stop talking about these prospects like they have to stay Mets their whole career. These prospects are, probably more importantly for the Mets at this stage, also currency. Such as the way the Blue Jays just traded two prospects for a Cy Young award winner, and the Giants traded a prospect for arguably the best position player the Mets ever had. The Phillies used their prospects to get arguably the best and second pitchers in the game at the time. What if this 11th pick is a key piece in a possible trade for Stanton next year? If you look at it this way, Bourn going to Cleveland doesn’t hurt nearly as much. I know no one is used to the Mets trading prospects for good players, because they never have any, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t actually happen. It happens all the time and its a key way to building a winner, which is why a farm system is so important.