6
2013
2013 Mets Projections: Ruben Tejada, SS
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When the Marlins signed Jose Reyes in December of 2011, the Mets were forced to turn to a young, inexperienced shortstop in Ruben Tejada. Just 22 at the time, Tejada was given the enormous (and probably impossible) task of replacing Reyes. No one expected him to make up for the production lost, but the club certainly needed decent production out of the position.
In 2011, Tejada got a substantial amount of playing time for the second year in a row, and began to hit at the big league level for the first time. He had hit just .213 in 78 games as a 20 year-old with the Mets the year before, but improved drastically, batting .284 with a very solid .360 on-base percentage, the result of a solid 9.3% walk rate. Mets fans had high expectations for him going into camp in 2012.
I wouldn’t say Tejada completely met the high expectations some had for him, but he definitely improved and had a good season nonetheless. He batted .289 for the season, a few points better than his 2011 average. The overwhelming negative for Tejada, however, was his drop in walks. His walk rate was almost cut in half, dropping to just 5.4%. That had a negative effect on his on-base percentage, dropping from .360 to .333, and that’s with an uptick in batting average. His first half was significantly better than his second, hitting .325 before the All-Star break and just .269 after. Comparing his second half to other shortstops, that’s well above-average although it’s not quite where we’d like Tejada to be.
Despite a few negatives, I’m happy with Tejada’s overall performance last season. He played the field well, and hit well above-average for a shortstop. It’s hard to project Tejada as a future batting champ, but he will definitely hover in the .280 to .290 range for quite a few years. That may not seem extremely valuable when considering his lack of power, but in a league where the total batting average for MLB shortstops is .256, it is. Speaking of the power, I really believe it’s going to start increasing for Tejada, as he is getting older. He will never be a home run guy (he’ll probably never hit more than five in a year) but the ability to get extra-base hits will continue to develop as it did last year. When will separate Tejada from the average seven or eight hitter is his ability to hit gap-to-gap. That will allow him to become a useful player in the second spot.
Before we move to my projection, let’s look at the two others that we’ve been using throughout our series, Bill James and ZiPS. Here’s what they are projecting for Tejada:
James: .277/.338/.347, 2 HR
ZiPS: .272/.328/.341, 2 HR, 2.2 WAR
I actually disagree with both of these projections. Looking at Tejada’s batting average on balls in play, and a few other factors, Tejada actually got a little bit unlucky last year. His BABIP, or projected batting average on balls in play was a staggering .369. The stats from throughout his career and his style of hitting had him projected to have a higher BABIP. However, this year, his BABIP was 30 points lower at .339. Don’t take those numbers too seriously of course, because projecting BABIP is still (and never will be) an exact science, but when the gap is so great like that, it’s certainly something to keep in mind when making a projection.
When watching Tejada play, I see a future above-average shortstop, especially with the bat. His etra-base hit power, which began to develop last year, will improve again this year. If he’s able to take a more balanced approach at the plate, he will draw more walks and thus help the rest of his game. Last season, he was being more aggressive at the plate, swinging at outside pitches more often and driving down his walk rate. That needs to be a top priority (along with the gap-to-gap power) going into camp this year. If he takes the approach he took two years ago, which I believe Dave Hudgens will push him to do, Tejada will have an excellent season.
2013 Projection:
.286/.352/.370, 1 HR, 46 RBI, 2.1 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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If only he had some speed and could steal 20-25 bases, his value would be so much higher. I still think he has a chance to learn how to swipe 20 bases a year, even with out speed.
He might, but it could take 70 attempts to get there!
I read somewhere this week that Tejada intends to steal more bases this season as one of his goals. Everything I’ve seen of him seems like it would be a bad idea. He doesn’t have the quick burst he’d need to be successful at it.
He has the speed he just needs to be taught how to use it to steal bases….
Reyes may have helped him but the truth is they should do with Tejada what they did with Reyes and Hire Henderson to coach him on how to read and steal off the pitcher.
Thats who taught Ryes to be a good base stealing threat. He was as weak as tejada before Henderson tutored him.
Well I would say Tejada is slower than Reyes was, but I like the idea of Henderson coaching him.
So he will only steal 50 bases instead of 78 or 64….
You mostly steal from the pitcher not the catcher…
Get a good jump and speed is only a factor when you get a bad jump.
BINGO!
We all know Tejada’s a really smart cat, and I think learning from Reyes (as well as Bourn should the Mets acquire him) would greatly benefit him. Speed in itself wasn’t the only reason why guys like Rickey Henderson was as great and aggressive on the basepaths as he was. Anyone recall him talking about how he read pitchers and taking big leads on Diamond Demos on MLB Network?
How many stolen bases do you see Tejada having this season, Metsie?
Well sadly Hitman I don’t expect it to rise on the basis of spending time with Reyes…
He needs the coaching to be there with Pitchers present. So they can be disected by the coach and show the tell tale tipoffs that means you can get a jump on him.
There were no Pitchers present when he was with Reyes and he won’t get much from it.
Could be done in a film room but it’s always best to do it in live games during ST to get live feedback right then and there….
If his steals do go up I don’t expect it to go up drastically and if he gets caught too often too early he will stop making the attempts entirely.
I just don’t get the obsession with his lack of speed. He’s not fast, that’s it. While you can work on his baserunning his speed is not gonna change.
He’s just not fast. Was Rey Ordonez fast? Was Rafael Santana fast?
If you don’t have speed at one position then it has to come from somewhere else. Not all positions require players w/great speed all the time. It changes from season to season, from roster to roster. In the end as long as you put together a team that you like and you feel can contend than I don’t care where the hell the speed comes from as long as you have the team you feel you can to to war with.
It’s not that he isn’t a fast runner….
People are saying he has no speed based on his SB totals and nothing more…
He is plenty fast enough to steal bases he just isn’t fast enough to steal them off a catcher and has to steal them off the Pitcher instead.
Hell even David Wright can steal a base!
He isn’t even half as fast as Tejada.
It’s not speed that is the issue they are just beliving his speed is an issue due to a stat they percieve should be higher if you have speed.
High SB is not a indication of Speed…Low SB doesn’t mean your not fast just means you didn’t steal bases….
It’s similar to those who look at OBP and say a guy with low OBP is a bad hitter….
When the truth is he could be a GOOD hitter who puts the ball in play instead of walking more.
coach’s cost money
I love Ruben and am excited to see him continue to develop. I think the next step of development has to be improving on defense and trying to steal more bags. The power might never develop, but I think he can be a .300 hitter eventually. In Ruben, we have a bright piece on the diamond.
Wish Des was still around. This would have been a great post to see Bayonne take him on head to head. LOL
I like Tejada, but I’m not sure he’s a longterm solution. Of course the same can be said about Gavin Cecchini who so far looks like a pretty interesting future utility infielder. Hopefully, Phil Evans has his breakthrough season and can get here by 2014.
As the season went along I went from describing Tejada with terms like “the kid” to then switching to “Mr Tejada” out of the respect I had for his play in 2012. One of the bright spots in 2012 for sure. Looking forward to seeing what he can do in 2013.
He was more of a bright spot in 2011 than 2012 in my opinion. He ended up losing somewhere around 25 points in OBP, striking out more and walking less. I dont usually care so much about walks from my 3-6 hitters, but as long as Tejada bats 1 or 2 it matters. Especially when John Olerud can outrun him on the bases.
Agreed. He was beyond awful at the plate last year. Completely empty stats.
“If he takes the approach he took two years ago, which I believe Dan Warthen will push him to do, Tejada will have an excellent season.”
I think Dan Warthen should worry about the pitching staff and not Tejada.
Tejada is an average SS…that’s all he’ll be, nothing wrong with that. I actually think he could be a very solid #2 hitter…the most impressive thing I see from him is his ability to hit line drives all over the field…we could do much worse..it seems like there are three or four really good Star SS (yes we let one walk away without offering chocolate) and the rest is pretty forgettable and interchangeable.
What I like about him is even though he’s not great at anyone thing, he doesn’t hurt you either (assuming he’s being used properly)
I wasn’t impressed with Tejada defensively. When he first came up there was a lot of talk about him being a great defensive player and I just didn’t see it.
I highly doubt Tejada will be the shortstop in two years. He’s not so good defensively that it’s enough to offset what he can’t do at the plate. He brings nothing to the table offensively.
I disagree. When you compare Tejada to theaverage offensive numbers for MLB shorstops, he is significantly better, and at such a young age. He’s a young, improving, and already above-average player at a premium positon who still isn’t even arbitration eligible. He’s much more valuable than you think.
His defense, while I will agree isn’t fantastic, it’s average, but no worse, inj my opinion.
His UZR rating is 1.2, just a blip above average. His weighted on base percentage was .314 in 11 and .304 last year. He has no slugging ability whatsoever and no speed.
He didn’t improve at all last year. In fact his walk rate decreased and his strikeout rate increased. Granted, he’s very young.
I see stopgap, not longterm solution. There’s no bat at all and his defense is just good.
What were those same stats for Bud Harrelson in 1969 & 1973 and what were those stats for Rafael Santana in 1986 & 1985 and what were those stupid, asinine statistics for Rey Ordonez in 1999 & 2000.
And why those years? I’ll tell you why, use this stat – put 2 & 2 together.
Nice comeback.
I don’t think UZR gives you an accurate picture of Tejada’s defense.
UZR isn’t accurate at all measuring single seasons, so I’m not going to trust it in this context. Tejada also missed some time last season (He played 114 games), so his UZR is somewhat misleading because it is a counting stat. If he played in more games, he probably would have had a higher UZR.
His rise in K rate and drop in BB rate can be explained by the fact he was batting lead off a lot in 2012, while in 2011 he was hitting in front of the pitcher. Pitchers were pitching to him differently than they were in 2011, that’s why his stats in that area were worse.
Tejada doesn’t have a lot of power or speed, but he doesn’t need it to be an effective player. He’s got a nice swing, and a good eye at the plate. He can hit for a good average, get on base, and play solid defense – He’s not a superstar, but he could be a nice role player on this team for now and in the future.
Vinny remember Mark Belanger? I’m sure you do, great lil SS played for Earl Weaver’s Orioles from 1965-1981.
One time in his career he hit .287
One time in his career he hit 270
One time in his career he hit .260 (give or take a point)
What’s the next highest BA he hit in all that time, with all those good Orioles teams? .226
What a bum right?
Man things sure have changed. Who would have thought the average baseball fan now would be so misguided?
Oh i’m made a booboo, he hit .228 in half a season’s worth of ABs once!
Terrible example. Didin’t Belanger win something like 8 gold gloves? And he won 5 or 6 in a row? I love Tejada and want him to play every day, but comparing him to one of the best defensive shortstops just to make a point about batting average is completely dishonest and disingenuous.
Oh it’s not “dishonest” or “disingenuous” so knock it off you clown
Nothing dishonest about it at all. It’s just your opportunity to say that to me because I’ve caught you lying in the past and you’re just DYING to get back at me. Just stay the F* away you jerkoff.
If anything you KNEW the point i was trying to make so you’re the one being your usual dishonest, lying self.
Using Mark Belanger as an example of how STUPID his statistical analysis of Tejada is NOT DISHONEST in the least. It’s about explaining how the sum of a team’s parts is always more important than the individual “statistics” and I must’ve said it a thousand times by now that everybody knows i always say that so crawl back into your basement and eat yourself to death while you oogle “weighted OBP” and UZR you creep
what are you talking about
No one ever knows…
Joe please get rid of these buttwipes it’s obvious they are here posting under fake nicks to get Bayonne riled up so when he gets on the others who back them up (like Xtreeme in this case) they can FEIGN thier Innocence in the Attack fiasco and claim Bayonne started it when it’s obvious it’s one of thier friends who is hiding under some made up nickname….
Thank you so much Bayonne for your thoroughly-detailed rebuttal of the points I made in this article and for your restraint when replying to other commenters. Fantastic.
You’re quite welcome
I do henceforth beseech thy love my good sir. I am merry for thee and shalt permit thine self to conclude that thy conciousness has but the eloquence of a rat on cocaine.
I know, he has to step up to the plate and hit like the Mets shortstops of 69, 73, 86, 99, 00 did. Otherwise what good is he in this age of team building according to individual statistics where every player must be statistically satisfying.
He hit 289 & 284 last year, i know right? He’s got nothing.
Some people will always complain unless they have the league MVP at every position you know…
as long as someone has a player that is better than yours at some position your guy is a slouch and needs replacing…LOL
every position except 3B…
then the standard drops…
And its the most empty “BATTING AVERAGE” you’ll ever see. Ruben Tejada sucks.
I take that back. Clearly he doesn’t “suck”. But I don’t believe he’s the answer longterm at short.
A .352 OBP?! I take it you’re projecting him to bat 8th in the lineup then? I might buy that. No way he does that batting leadoff. As a leadoff hitter I’d give him a .333 OBP.
I’ve never been a big fan of Tejada’s – however, I was impressed with how many pitches he sees in an at bat. He works the count probably better than anyone on the team – which helps out the team on the whole.
The trouble with Tejada is that he was far better off at second – with Reyes at shortstop. The Mets were well covered up the middle and would have been for the next five years. But of course, Sandy is gearing the team for incredible success in 2014 (and always has the option of pushing back that date). It makes letting Reyes go as a bit disingenuous when it comes to trying to sell the fan base of creating a team that will compete every year.
I’m afraid that I’m taking out my anger over the Reyes situation on Tejada.
Having said that, as the primary shortstop – defensively he’s not all that good. He will make the occasional spectacular play but doesn’t’ cover enough ground – which would be fine if he was at second.
His on base and slugging is incredibly weak.
I only hope he is a stopgap at shortstop and is either moved eventually to second or goes to the bench.
“The Mets were well covered up the middle and would have been for the next five years. But of course, Sandy is gearing the team for incredible success in 2014 (and always has the option of pushing back that date). It makes letting Reyes go as a bit disingenuous when it comes to trying to sell the fan base of creating a team that will compete every year.
I’m afraid that I’m taking out my anger over the Reyes situation on Tejada.”
^^^^^^^^^^^ THIS
I felt the same exact way…..
That was the way to go. Reyes as SS & Tejada at 2B. The most basic template for wanting success in baseball that anybody with half a brain would know is to be strong up the middle. The Mets had it and they let it go and it’s really sad to be honest. Beltran was already moved and they had Zach Wheeler waiting in the wings and now Harvey is here and what better to back a young pitching staff with strength up the middle. 2 guys that knew each other, worked in the off season together, would have worked fantastic together in taking charge of ball movement (cutoffs, relays, direction) when there were hits with runners in scoring position
But it was destroyed by by a “philosophy”
I find it hard to believe that when you’re dealing what that kind of money (hundreds of millions) that they could not foresee what their potential financial situation could have been like in 2 years at the time they were weighing whether or not to sign Reyes.
as the Firm said.
David Wright was signed for more than just his production. It was the marketing, face of the franchise factor.
Forget wins….since when do New Yorkers care about putting the best team out there…
its about having guys u can relate to !
Having Ruben play 2nd and Jose at SS was my preference – but that ship long since sailed.
Just going by the eye test on Tejada…..
I liked his defense better at 2nd, but it was a small sample size.
Comparing his range at SS vs. Reyes’ he might seem lacking. I think that’s mainly b/c Reyes is quicker than Tejada. However, Ruben’s instincts appear to be better. One of the few knocks about Reyes was he wasn’t always focused out there on the field but it didn’t hurt him often b/c he could react quick. Rubin makes up for that lack of speed somewhat b/c of his better instincts.
Also, I don’t think Ruben’s arm is a downgrade from Reyes’ either. It’s strong enough to get that ball across the diamond to 1st fast and accurate. Certainly stronger than Wright’s – IMO.
At the plate, he’s young enough for improvement. He’s never going to be a power guy hitting HRs, but I agree with your assessment of his extra base hit power.
Overall, I think Tejada at SS should be the least of our problems for the next few years.
He’s already giving the team average to above average production. The gap-to-gap power will help even more if and when it comes.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for “gap to gap power” from Ruben Tejada.
ruben’s instincts and range make him an ideal 2B.
the chemistry he had with reyes in 2011 was real nice too
Man wish I could drink the Tejeda kool aid along with everyone else but I just don’t see it. To me this guy is an eventual utility player. His defense is good so maybe that keeps him as a starter in the majors. But the bat just isn’t there. He’s an empty .275 hitter. Meaning singles and nothing else offensively. But he’s young so who knows.
Ozzie Smith couldnt hit for squat either but he did learn and get better…
Tejada had at least one I can remember 15 pitch AB…
anyone who can protect the plate that well and fight off pitches can be a great hitter.
He’s not going to be a power hitting HR threat EVER…
But he could be a High Average hitter with some Gap power if he works the weights a bit and fills in his frame more.
He should get stronger as he gets older.
His Glove is pretty damn good only his range is not all it could be and it could be as he has made some rangy plays just not as often as Reyes.
He is no guarantee to do any of that but he does have some potential if he works at realizing it.