5
2013
2013 Mets Projections: Daniel Murphy, 2B
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Daniel Murphy went into camp last year with very high expectations. After hitting .320 in 109 games in 2011, some people expected Murphy to become a perennial .300 hitter. In 2011, it appeared as though Murphy was living up to his potential, but a year later, Murphy’s future is much less certain.
Murphy started off the year at a slower pace than he did 2011, but still put up solid numbers. In April, he hit .298, and had a .301 batting average at the end of May. That’s when thing started to go downhill. June was a rough month as Murphy’s already-low walk rate plummeted even more, reaching base only twice in the entire month via walk. He broke out the power stroke for the first time all season, hitting three home runs in the month, but it was an otherwise unproductive time for the second baseman, batting .240.
As the calendar turned to July, Murphy’s bat heated up once again, bating .360 and hitting 13 extra-base hits, more than in any other month. However, we once again saw Murphy’s bat struggle, batting .225 in August before rebounding and hitting .317 for September and October. He finished the year with a .291 batting average, .332 OBP, and .403 slugging percentage.
At second base, Murphy wasn’t great, but made progress as the season went along. At first, in early April, he not only looked uncomfortable at the position (which is to be expected of someone in his situation), but was also making bad mental mistakes and messing up some of the easy ways. That’s the way he’s always been, and we are going to have to live with it. However, he made significant improvement at the position and by the end of the season, was bearable. If given another year or two, he could definitely become an average fielder.
As for this season, it’s hard to tell exactly how Murphy will play. When I projected Ike Davis yesterday, there were a few reasons for his early-season swoon, and I was able to say confidently that he would not repeat that this season. Murphy’s inconsistencies, however, I am more unsure about. Before making a projection for myself, let’s look at some of the other respected projections out there. The ZiPS projection has Murphy hitting six home runs with a .282 batting average and .325 on-base percentage. ZiPS is almost always very conservative in its projections, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. Bill James‘ projections, always much less conservative, have him batting .303 with nine home runs and a .352 on-base percentage. As I did with Davis, I’m siding more towards the Bill James side. I’ve seen too much promise from Murphy over the past few years to believe that he’s going to deteriorate. I believe he’s going to hit .300 again.
2013 Projection
.305/.345/.425, 7 HR, 67 RBI, 2.5 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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The projection for 2013 seems quite reasonable, basically between Murphy’s 2011 and 2012 seasons.
if he stays healthy all year, that is probably reasonable. maybe a little optimistic on the power side.
Hopefully he makes some forward progress playing 2B at at least close to an average level. The defense still needs all thehelp it can get, and he was one of the primary weak spots.
Bet you Murphy connects for 15 homers this year. Just wait until you witness the power of the Irish Hammer.
.298, .340, 5 HR, 60 RBI.
In Murphy’s defense, he’s never been big on walks. He doesn’t need to be.
He’s got a nice compact, level swing that lets him control most of the zone. He doesn’t go chasing pitches he can’t hit, but there are very few that fall into that category.
His swing is like the anti-Davis swing.
Agreed, he’s a prototypical #2 hitter in my mind.
Like Murph’s work ethic and drive. Solid player who I think can hold down second adequately for the time being.
How’d you come to those stats? Is there a formula you followed? Graphs, charts? Or have you looked at 6 other projections and averaged them? Simply guessed?
I’d just like to know what scientific data or processes were followed in making these projections? Seems like a reach to just look at James’ predictions and put up something close. What makes you an authority on this subject? How are you qualified?
This is bogus man…
LOL, it’s a fan site with bloggers. None of us are qualified.
SheawasWorse –
Starting with questions, you’re on solid ground. Concluding with the view the projections are bogus takes you off the high road. Whether Connor has a repeatable methodology or not, it’s his view. An authority is minimally someone who knows at least a bit more than the next guy. It just might apply here. BTW, since you imply you know what it takes to make a guesstimate into an accepted projection, why don’t you give and support your views?
Is it possible he can hit double digit dingers this year? Hope so, I am predicting, avg 309, hm 14 , rbi 68, obp 371, sb 9, . that is my optimistic prediction. I feel Murphy being more comfortable at second base will allow his bat to grow.
Nothing to do with this post but just read in the post where the Wilpons want to put a casino, hotel, shopping and all the works on a 62 acre site at Willetts Point next to Citi Field. The reason the article said was to recoup 162 million dollars lost in the Madoff scandal. My gosh now you’ll be able to go to Citi and have your own slot machine at your seat. “how was the game Sam.” “Game want game I stopped at the casino and by the fourth inning the Mets were down 10-0 so I just stayed at the casino.” “But you had your granddaughter with you, you fool.” “Heck no she hit for a grand.”
I think .300(ish) is fair…I wouldn’t be surprised to see more power…I really think Murph struggled with the whole approach strategy that the Mets were doing. not say that I’m against it, but not every plan works for every hitter and you gotta let Murph be Murph.
I like Murph in the two hole, or three hole if the actually sign Bourn…He’s too aggressive with a base stealer on base and I like Tejada on the two hole for that role. I think Murph’s not best fit as a pure run producer…but a guy that transition between the table setters and the power guys.
You’ve just done two of these so far right? Just want to make sure there weren’t any I missed thanks. I enjoy them and I’m looking forward to seeing what you think about Matt Harvey and Kirk Nieuwenhuis this season. Keep them coming.
Connor for your next projection how about just giving us your opinion without looking at any statistics. I can do it, a lot of people can do it, try it.
And give us YOUR opinion, not Bill James or Zippy’s
‘m using the other projections to put my projection in context
.308, 15 HRs, 75-80 RBI, 40 2Bs
Alderson and Collins have each stated that they want more power from Murphy. If he tries to hit more home runs, his average will decrease… Murph is a natural hitter so hopefully he can still hit .285 with 15 home runs and 75 rbis or so….