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	<title>Comments on: 2013 Mets Projection: Jon Niese, LHP</title>
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		<title>By: kabarety online</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-369337</link>
		<dc:creator>kabarety online</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2013 15:59:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-369337</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hello my friend! I wish to say that this article is awesome, nice written and include almost all significant infos. I would like to look more posts like this .]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello my friend! I wish to say that this article is awesome, nice written and include almost all significant infos. I would like to look more posts like this .</p>
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		<title>By: RandomGuy</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368263</link>
		<dc:creator>RandomGuy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 05:49:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368263</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Maybe you won&#039;t ignore it down here, the reason is, it&#039;s hard to judge what ones offense can do, and what happens when the pitcher is taken out of the game.

In 2011,

Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA

W-L does not ALWAYS tell the whole story, and it is difficult to predict.  Who said anyone was taking anything away from Tom Seaver?  We aren&#039;t saying racking up an incredible amounts of wins is easy or that it has nothing to do with the pitcher, we are saying it&#039;s difficult to predict, and really you would just be throwing a number out there, as no one could predict a 6-9 record to go along with Cliff Lee&#039;s stats, or that 8-13 to go with R.A.&#039;s 2011.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe you won&#8217;t ignore it down here, the reason is, it&#8217;s hard to judge what ones offense can do, and what happens when the pitcher is taken out of the game.</p>
<p>In 2011,</p>
<p>Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA<br />
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA</p>
<p>W-L does not ALWAYS tell the whole story, and it is difficult to predict.  Who said anyone was taking anything away from Tom Seaver?  We aren&#8217;t saying racking up an incredible amounts of wins is easy or that it has nothing to do with the pitcher, we are saying it&#8217;s difficult to predict, and really you would just be throwing a number out there, as no one could predict a 6-9 record to go along with Cliff Lee&#8217;s stats, or that 8-13 to go with R.A.&#8217;s 2011.</p>
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		<title>By: Bayonne Mets Fan</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368253</link>
		<dc:creator>Bayonne Mets Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 05:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368253</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[...and especially the good ones.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;and especially the good ones.</p>
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		<title>By: Bayonne Mets Fan</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368251</link>
		<dc:creator>Bayonne Mets Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 05:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368251</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What your doing is establishing one general template, or as a matter of fact, a &quot;one size fits all&quot; generalization of all pitchers.

There are pitchers who have a better ability to induce a batter to hit it where they throw the ball better than other pitchers and those are the more successful pitchers.  I don&#039;t think it&#039;s fair to Tom Seaver to discredit what he&#039;s done in his career for all the teams he&#039;s played for.
And basically what your doing is holding the way the game is played against the pitcher!  You&#039;re denying the pitcher his percentage of the responsibility of the win just because he&#039;s supposed to have fielders.  That&#039;s wrong.  This is the central figure that is doing the most work on this team in getting it to try and win the game.

Of course circumstances change game to game, relievers blow games, errors happen but all in all that pitcher deserves every win he gets.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What your doing is establishing one general template, or as a matter of fact, a &#8220;one size fits all&#8221; generalization of all pitchers.</p>
<p>There are pitchers who have a better ability to induce a batter to hit it where they throw the ball better than other pitchers and those are the more successful pitchers.  I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s fair to Tom Seaver to discredit what he&#8217;s done in his career for all the teams he&#8217;s played for.<br />
And basically what your doing is holding the way the game is played against the pitcher!  You&#8217;re denying the pitcher his percentage of the responsibility of the win just because he&#8217;s supposed to have fielders.  That&#8217;s wrong.  This is the central figure that is doing the most work on this team in getting it to try and win the game.</p>
<p>Of course circumstances change game to game, relievers blow games, errors happen but all in all that pitcher deserves every win he gets.</p>
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		<title>By: Mr North Jersey</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368249</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr North Jersey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 05:19:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I agree. For a recent example look at Cliff Lee. His Win/Loss record was 6-9 last season. Which is not representative of how good a season he put together. He posted a 3.16/ERA he pitched 211.0/IP he made 30 starts he posted a BB/9 of 1.2 and a SO/9 of 8.8. But he had 15 No Decisions where in them he pitched to a 3.21/ERA and a BB/9 of 1.3 and a SO/9 of 8.4.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree. For a recent example look at Cliff Lee. His Win/Loss record was 6-9 last season. Which is not representative of how good a season he put together. He posted a 3.16/ERA he pitched 211.0/IP he made 30 starts he posted a BB/9 of 1.2 and a SO/9 of 8.8. But he had 15 No Decisions where in them he pitched to a 3.21/ERA and a BB/9 of 1.3 and a SO/9 of 8.4.</p>
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		<title>By: P. Singh</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368246</link>
		<dc:creator>P. Singh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 04:48:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368246</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually that does make alot of sense. :-)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually that does make alot of sense. <img src='http://smhttp.18058.nexcesscdn.net/808D60/wordpress/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Connor O'Brien</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368244</link>
		<dc:creator>Connor O'Brien</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 04:36:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368244</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi P. Singh,
Thank you for your response. I am glad you are enjoyjng the series. :)
To answer your question, I don&#039;t feel as if projecting pitcher wins is really relevant when you are just talking about the production of a pitcher. Of course, the trend is always that good pitchers will rack up wins because they are pitching better games more often. However, a win for a pitcher is half on him and half on the offense or team around him. So if I&#039;m just talking about the pitcher&#039;s production, why include it? Especially on a potentially sub-.500 team like the Mets, the number of wins and losses will likely be inconsistent with how well Niese pitches. I don&#039;t like win-loss records for pitcheds because of this.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi P. Singh,<br />
Thank you for your response. I am glad you are enjoyjng the series. <img src='http://smhttp.18058.nexcesscdn.net/808D60/wordpress/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
To answer your question, I don&#8217;t feel as if projecting pitcher wins is really relevant when you are just talking about the production of a pitcher. Of course, the trend is always that good pitchers will rack up wins because they are pitching better games more often. However, a win for a pitcher is half on him and half on the offense or team around him. So if I&#8217;m just talking about the pitcher&#8217;s production, why include it? Especially on a potentially sub-.500 team like the Mets, the number of wins and losses will likely be inconsistent with how well Niese pitches. I don&#8217;t like win-loss records for pitcheds because of this.</p>
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		<title>By: P. Singh</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-368241</link>
		<dc:creator>P. Singh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 04:28:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-368241</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Connor, I am enjoying your projections very much, but I do have a question. Why don&#039;t you include wins in your projections? I actually like what you have Niese projected for and I enjoyed your analysis. I would say he will be a 17 game winner this season and lead the team in wins.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Connor, I am enjoying your projections very much, but I do have a question. Why don&#8217;t you include wins in your projections? I actually like what you have Niese projected for and I enjoyed your analysis. I would say he will be a 17 game winner this season and lead the team in wins.</p>
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		<title>By: Metsie</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367997</link>
		<dc:creator>Metsie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 22:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367997</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The only question with Niese is durability and endurance....
He is coming to the age where Injuries usually start creeping in and lets hope that doesn&#039;t happen..
As far as the endurance he has been doing a running program starting last offseason and it did seem to help him get through the dog days.

I have high hopes for Niese and the only thing I would like to see him improve on is economizing his innings and getting guys out on fewer pitches...He isn&#039;t too bad in that department already but with a little improvement in pitch selection and setting up the batter properly he could reduce the workload on that arm and extend himself from getting injured.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only question with Niese is durability and endurance&#8230;.<br />
He is coming to the age where Injuries usually start creeping in and lets hope that doesn&#8217;t happen..<br />
As far as the endurance he has been doing a running program starting last offseason and it did seem to help him get through the dog days.</p>
<p>I have high hopes for Niese and the only thing I would like to see him improve on is economizing his innings and getting guys out on fewer pitches&#8230;He isn&#8217;t too bad in that department already but with a little improvement in pitch selection and setting up the batter properly he could reduce the workload on that arm and extend himself from getting injured.</p>
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		<title>By: RandomGuy</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367776</link>
		<dc:creator>RandomGuy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 17:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367776</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Look at Cliff Lee last year, predicting W-L for pitchers is probably harder than predicting anything else, like Alex68 said, bullpens can destroy every lead a good pitcher develops, it&#039;s not the pitchers fault.

6 of the first 13 starts for Cliff Lee last season, could have easily been won the Phillies, yet he didnt have a win until his 14th start(go figure, it was against us.)

I had a debate with someone who thinks W-L is important to look at how many time your pitcher gave you a good chance to win, because &quot;ERA&quot; is just an average, what if they are dominant in 40% of starts and less than average in the other 60% your ERA will come out pretty solid, but you won&#039;t help the team win that much.  I do believe W-L is a tough stat to read a players skill level off of.  

In 2011, 

Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA

So, I have to agree with Alex that it does not tell the whole story. 

However, no reason we can&#039;t throw an optimistic W-L record in there.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Look at Cliff Lee last year, predicting W-L for pitchers is probably harder than predicting anything else, like Alex68 said, bullpens can destroy every lead a good pitcher develops, it&#8217;s not the pitchers fault.</p>
<p>6 of the first 13 starts for Cliff Lee last season, could have easily been won the Phillies, yet he didnt have a win until his 14th start(go figure, it was against us.)</p>
<p>I had a debate with someone who thinks W-L is important to look at how many time your pitcher gave you a good chance to win, because &#8220;ERA&#8221; is just an average, what if they are dominant in 40% of starts and less than average in the other 60% your ERA will come out pretty solid, but you won&#8217;t help the team win that much.  I do believe W-L is a tough stat to read a players skill level off of.  </p>
<p>In 2011, </p>
<p>Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA<br />
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA</p>
<p>So, I have to agree with Alex that it does not tell the whole story. </p>
<p>However, no reason we can&#8217;t throw an optimistic W-L record in there.</p>
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		<title>By: van</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367740</link>
		<dc:creator>van</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 17:00:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367740</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have also been a big fan of his from when he was still in the minors.

easily overlooked since it seems like he has been around forever is that he is only 25 (I think he pitches 2013 as a 26 YO), so still not even in what is normally the prime years for a SP.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have also been a big fan of his from when he was still in the minors.</p>
<p>easily overlooked since it seems like he has been around forever is that he is only 25 (I think he pitches 2013 as a 26 YO), so still not even in what is normally the prime years for a SP.</p>
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		<title>By: van</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367734</link>
		<dc:creator>van</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:56:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[bump up the K rate a smidge, and maybe shave a few 10ths off the ERA, and I think you are right there.

15-17 wins too]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bump up the K rate a smidge, and maybe shave a few 10ths off the ERA, and I think you are right there.</p>
<p>15-17 wins too</p>
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		<title>By: taskmaster4450</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367723</link>
		<dc:creator>taskmaster4450</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:51:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367723</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I believe Niese will take another step forward this season.  2012 was a terrific year for him and I see no reason why his maturation wont continue.  It is nice that he is locked up for potentially 6 more seasons.  He will be a mainstay in the Mets rotation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I believe Niese will take another step forward this season.  2012 was a terrific year for him and I see no reason why his maturation wont continue.  It is nice that he is locked up for potentially 6 more seasons.  He will be a mainstay in the Mets rotation.</p>
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		<title>By: Mr North Jersey</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367701</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr North Jersey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:33:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367701</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To have Niese be able to rebound from 2011 and finish the season and pitch well while doing so was great. Seeing Niese along with Harvey pitch this year should be really something to watch.

Can&#039;t wait.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To have Niese be able to rebound from 2011 and finish the season and pitch well while doing so was great. Seeing Niese along with Harvey pitch this year should be really something to watch.</p>
<p>Can&#8217;t wait.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex68</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367652</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex68</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:05:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367652</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, because according to them, if you pitch a gem but lose a game don&#039;t tell the story. as if. you can leave a game winning 6-2 after pitching 7 good innings and allowing 2 runs, yet the team loses the game doesn&#039;t reflect how well he pitched. so according to connnor, he&#039;s only focusing on how the pitcher pitchers without W-L record. i actually went inside about this, how can he have a projection with no W-L record? but... at this point, it is what it is]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, because according to them, if you pitch a gem but lose a game don&#8217;t tell the story. as if. you can leave a game winning 6-2 after pitching 7 good innings and allowing 2 runs, yet the team loses the game doesn&#8217;t reflect how well he pitched. so according to connnor, he&#8217;s only focusing on how the pitcher pitchers without W-L record. i actually went inside about this, how can he have a projection with no W-L record? but&#8230; at this point, it is what it is</p>
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		<title>By: PGrizzly24</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367646</link>
		<dc:creator>PGrizzly24</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:01:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Im a big fan of Niese. He&#039;s really matured as a pitcher and after Dickey he was the pitcher i felt most confident in going into any game. 

The thing about Niese which most impressed me were how few base on balls he gives up and how consistent he was as the season wore on. I think he went something like his last 20 starts in a row giving up just 3 earned runs or less. Though i could be wrong on the number of starts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Im a big fan of Niese. He&#8217;s really matured as a pitcher and after Dickey he was the pitcher i felt most confident in going into any game. </p>
<p>The thing about Niese which most impressed me were how few base on balls he gives up and how consistent he was as the season wore on. I think he went something like his last 20 starts in a row giving up just 3 earned runs or less. Though i could be wrong on the number of starts.</p>
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		<title>By: MetsMan86</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367630</link>
		<dc:creator>MetsMan86</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 15:51:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367630</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Been a huge fan of Niese since his first big league start. Have always liked his fastball and movement his breaking pitches. Here&#039;s to hoping 2013 is his emergence to one of the best lefties in the league.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Been a huge fan of Niese since his first big league start. Have always liked his fastball and movement his breaking pitches. Here&#8217;s to hoping 2013 is his emergence to one of the best lefties in the league.</p>
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		<title>By: Bayonne Mets Fan</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367603</link>
		<dc:creator>Bayonne Mets Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 15:35:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amazing how the author does not list any Win/Loss record.  Friggin amazin.

I guess good pitchers don&#039;t put their teams in position to win games. He can have a 3.50 ERA and go 7-13 but i know....you guys don&#039;t think pitcher wins are important.

RBIs not important and pitcher WINS not important. Nice. No credit to the hitters who actually cash in the chips and no credit to the one main force you put out there to keep opposing hitters at bay.  Instead all the credit goes to the guys that get on base before the RBI and the the players AROUND that good pitcher who gives any team a better chance to win a game.

It&#039;s funny how is so many different levels in the saber world that wins are not important - statistically and in real life.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amazing how the author does not list any Win/Loss record.  Friggin amazin.</p>
<p>I guess good pitchers don&#8217;t put their teams in position to win games. He can have a 3.50 ERA and go 7-13 but i know&#8230;.you guys don&#8217;t think pitcher wins are important.</p>
<p>RBIs not important and pitcher WINS not important. Nice. No credit to the hitters who actually cash in the chips and no credit to the one main force you put out there to keep opposing hitters at bay.  Instead all the credit goes to the guys that get on base before the RBI and the the players AROUND that good pitcher who gives any team a better chance to win a game.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s funny how is so many different levels in the saber world that wins are not important &#8211; statistically and in real life.</p>
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		<title>By: Hitman</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367589</link>
		<dc:creator>Hitman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 15:28:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367589</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For once, I hope you&#039;re right, but I see him going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For once, I hope you&#8217;re right, but I see him going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA.</p>
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		<title>By: oleosmirf</title>
		<link>http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/2013-mets-projection-jon-niese-sp.html#comment-367513</link>
		<dc:creator>oleosmirf</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2013 14:28:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=109023#comment-367513</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That sounds about right to me. I expect a little lower ERA since the bullpen will be improved and I think he&#039;ll have a borderline all-star season...

I see no reason why we can&#039;t have all 5 starters with an ERA under 3.75 although Gee might be a little higher.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That sounds about right to me. I expect a little lower ERA since the bullpen will be improved and I think he&#8217;ll have a borderline all-star season&#8230;</p>
<p>I see no reason why we can&#8217;t have all 5 starters with an ERA under 3.75 although Gee might be a little higher.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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