25
2013
2013 Mets Projection: Jon Niese, LHP
An article by 
The Mets signed Jonathon Niese at the perfect time early last April, inking the left-hander to a five-year extension worth just over $25 million. The contract the two sides agreed to kept Niese a Met for his final pre-arbitration years (2012), all three of his arbitration years, and at least one year of free agency. The best part of the deal may be the two team options, which total $21 million and would keep Niese for two more free agent years. Niese, who has constantly been the subject of trade rumors throughout his career, finally had some security. How did he respond? With a career year.
Niese was coming off a few year in a row in which he was unable to finish a season pitching well or healthy. In 2010, he posted a 7.57 ERA over his last seven starts after pitching very well for most of the season. He was clearly showing signs of wear and tear. In 2011, he missed all of September with injury. It was very important for Niese to finally be able to pitch (and pitch well) down the stretch in 2012.
Niese’s overall numbers last season are actually a bit deceiving, and don’t quite tell the whole story. He finished the year with an above-average ERA of 3.40, 14th in the National League. However, he actually pitched much better than that mark would suggest. His ERA was inflated by two terrible starts, one in May against Toronto and another right before the All-Star break against Chicago. In those two games combined, he gave up 15 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. If you remove those starts from his statistics, his ERA is 2.84, which would have been fifth in the National League.
Since he has become a full-time starter in the big leagues, Niese has shown steady improvement, but last year was an even bigger step forward and has me excited for his future. He is mixing his pitches much better than in years past, and is also pitching remarkably better out of the stretch. With men on, opponents had a meager .272 on-base percentage with Niese striking out 3.52 batters per walk. In 2010 in those situations, hitters had a .358 on-base percentage and Niese struck out only 1.94 batters per walk. That’s a very promising trend and shows that last year was no fluke.
Overall, Niese has a very bright future ahead of him. Last year was not a fluke, but genuine improvement. He has turned himself into one of the better young lefties in the National League. With his new team-friendly contract, if he continues to pitch like he did last year, he will be immensely valuable to the Mets in the years to come.
2013 Projection:
3.50 ERA, 205 IP, 7.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.8 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
22 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Satish Ram: on Mets Offense Comes Up Empty In 4-0 Loss To Reds: Hey Neil, You'd be surprised how many players...
- Neil S.: on Mets Offense Comes Up Empty In 4-0 Loss To Reds: I hope the players and their families...
- alfred: on Mets Offense Comes Up Empty In 4-0 Loss To Reds: Though looking on the bright side Ike...
- Markcomic1: on Choo Could Be Impact Outfielder For Mets In 2014, But Would Cost A Pick: Choo is a nice player but, Citifield...
- alfred: on Mets Offense Comes Up Empty In 4-0 Loss To Reds: Following team sing 67. Most unwatchable...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5379 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
The posts I am reading this morning are the BEST I have seen this year on this subject. My opinion of course but you guys really know your stuff! Don’t agree all the time but you know your Mets-Way to go.
COnnor, i will up your little stats….
John Niese in 2013:
17-8 2.85 8+ K/9 1.10 WHIP 5.0 WAR Top 5 CY candidate…..
For once, I hope you’re right, but I see him going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA.
Amazing how the author does not list any Win/Loss record. Friggin amazin.
I guess good pitchers don’t put their teams in position to win games. He can have a 3.50 ERA and go 7-13 but i know….you guys don’t think pitcher wins are important.
RBIs not important and pitcher WINS not important. Nice. No credit to the hitters who actually cash in the chips and no credit to the one main force you put out there to keep opposing hitters at bay. Instead all the credit goes to the guys that get on base before the RBI and the the players AROUND that good pitcher who gives any team a better chance to win a game.
It’s funny how is so many different levels in the saber world that wins are not important – statistically and in real life.
Well, because according to them, if you pitch a gem but lose a game don’t tell the story. as if. you can leave a game winning 6-2 after pitching 7 good innings and allowing 2 runs, yet the team loses the game doesn’t reflect how well he pitched. so according to connnor, he’s only focusing on how the pitcher pitchers without W-L record. i actually went inside about this, how can he have a projection with no W-L record? but… at this point, it is what it is
Look at Cliff Lee last year, predicting W-L for pitchers is probably harder than predicting anything else, like Alex68 said, bullpens can destroy every lead a good pitcher develops, it’s not the pitchers fault.
6 of the first 13 starts for Cliff Lee last season, could have easily been won the Phillies, yet he didnt have a win until his 14th start(go figure, it was against us.)
I had a debate with someone who thinks W-L is important to look at how many time your pitcher gave you a good chance to win, because “ERA” is just an average, what if they are dominant in 40% of starts and less than average in the other 60% your ERA will come out pretty solid, but you won’t help the team win that much. I do believe W-L is a tough stat to read a players skill level off of.
In 2011,
Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA
So, I have to agree with Alex that it does not tell the whole story.
However, no reason we can’t throw an optimistic W-L record in there.
That sounds about right to me. I expect a little lower ERA since the bullpen will be improved and I think he’ll have a borderline all-star season…
I see no reason why we can’t have all 5 starters with an ERA under 3.75 although Gee might be a little higher.
Been a huge fan of Niese since his first big league start. Have always liked his fastball and movement his breaking pitches. Here’s to hoping 2013 is his emergence to one of the best lefties in the league.
Im a big fan of Niese. He’s really matured as a pitcher and after Dickey he was the pitcher i felt most confident in going into any game.
The thing about Niese which most impressed me were how few base on balls he gives up and how consistent he was as the season wore on. I think he went something like his last 20 starts in a row giving up just 3 earned runs or less. Though i could be wrong on the number of starts.
To have Niese be able to rebound from 2011 and finish the season and pitch well while doing so was great. Seeing Niese along with Harvey pitch this year should be really something to watch.
Can’t wait.
I believe Niese will take another step forward this season. 2012 was a terrific year for him and I see no reason why his maturation wont continue. It is nice that he is locked up for potentially 6 more seasons. He will be a mainstay in the Mets rotation.
bump up the K rate a smidge, and maybe shave a few 10ths off the ERA, and I think you are right there.
15-17 wins too
I have also been a big fan of his from when he was still in the minors.
easily overlooked since it seems like he has been around forever is that he is only 25 (I think he pitches 2013 as a 26 YO), so still not even in what is normally the prime years for a SP.
The only question with Niese is durability and endurance….
He is coming to the age where Injuries usually start creeping in and lets hope that doesn’t happen..
As far as the endurance he has been doing a running program starting last offseason and it did seem to help him get through the dog days.
I have high hopes for Niese and the only thing I would like to see him improve on is economizing his innings and getting guys out on fewer pitches…He isn’t too bad in that department already but with a little improvement in pitch selection and setting up the batter properly he could reduce the workload on that arm and extend himself from getting injured.
Hi Connor, I am enjoying your projections very much, but I do have a question. Why don’t you include wins in your projections? I actually like what you have Niese projected for and I enjoyed your analysis. I would say he will be a 17 game winner this season and lead the team in wins.
Hi P. Singh,
Thank you for your response. I am glad you are enjoyjng the series.
To answer your question, I don’t feel as if projecting pitcher wins is really relevant when you are just talking about the production of a pitcher. Of course, the trend is always that good pitchers will rack up wins because they are pitching better games more often. However, a win for a pitcher is half on him and half on the offense or team around him. So if I’m just talking about the pitcher’s production, why include it? Especially on a potentially sub-.500 team like the Mets, the number of wins and losses will likely be inconsistent with how well Niese pitches. I don’t like win-loss records for pitcheds because of this.
Actually that does make alot of sense.
I agree. For a recent example look at Cliff Lee. His Win/Loss record was 6-9 last season. Which is not representative of how good a season he put together. He posted a 3.16/ERA he pitched 211.0/IP he made 30 starts he posted a BB/9 of 1.2 and a SO/9 of 8.8. But he had 15 No Decisions where in them he pitched to a 3.21/ERA and a BB/9 of 1.3 and a SO/9 of 8.4.
What your doing is establishing one general template, or as a matter of fact, a “one size fits all” generalization of all pitchers.
There are pitchers who have a better ability to induce a batter to hit it where they throw the ball better than other pitchers and those are the more successful pitchers. I don’t think it’s fair to Tom Seaver to discredit what he’s done in his career for all the teams he’s played for.
And basically what your doing is holding the way the game is played against the pitcher! You’re denying the pitcher his percentage of the responsibility of the win just because he’s supposed to have fielders. That’s wrong. This is the central figure that is doing the most work on this team in getting it to try and win the game.
Of course circumstances change game to game, relievers blow games, errors happen but all in all that pitcher deserves every win he gets.
…and especially the good ones.
Maybe you won’t ignore it down here, the reason is, it’s hard to judge what ones offense can do, and what happens when the pitcher is taken out of the game.
In 2011,
Dillon Gee: 13-6 4.43ERA
R.A. Dickey: 8-13 3.28ERA
W-L does not ALWAYS tell the whole story, and it is difficult to predict. Who said anyone was taking anything away from Tom Seaver? We aren’t saying racking up an incredible amounts of wins is easy or that it has nothing to do with the pitcher, we are saying it’s difficult to predict, and really you would just be throwing a number out there, as no one could predict a 6-9 record to go along with Cliff Lee’s stats, or that 8-13 to go with R.A.’s 2011.
Hello my friend! I wish to say that this article is awesome, nice written and include almost all significant infos. I would like to look more posts like this .