28
2013
Will Alderson Survive The Fans Ire If Mets Stumble Early?
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Adam Rubin pops the question: “Has Alderson Been Effective?” on ESPN New York this morning.
The Mets may be headed for their fifth straight losing season in 2013, which would be their third straight under Alderson. And the current GM no longer has what he inherited from Omar Minaya to blame when Alderson quips, “What outfield?”
Rubin gives Alderson plenty of credit for his two big trades that landed Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud for former Mets stars Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey, and also says he unearthed some cost-effective free-agent signings during his tenure, such as Chris Capuano, Chris Young and Scott Hairston.
Some of the things in the not-so-good- column included:
- Failing to employ a strict commitment to rebuilding from the outset of his regime that included trading Jose Reyes – rather than letting him walk as a free agent.
- Not all his trades were winners, case in point: last winter’s deal of Angel Pagan for since-departed Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez.
- Failing to add a piece when the Mets climbed to seven games over .500 in early July last season and then when they faded, not trading Scott Hairston despite plenty of interest.
- The largest contract he has awarded to a free agent in three offseasons as a GM is Frank Francisco‘s two-year, $12 million deal which hasn’t worked out.
He concludes that while fans do sense a better future and many seem somewhat forgiving right now, the tide can quickly turn against him if the Mets stumble early, and he is unlikely to escape the ire of fans, even if better days may be ahead.
Read the full article here.
No matter how bad the Mets perform in 2013 or how angry some fans may get, I would speculate that Alderson will serve out all four years of his deal and possibly even get a new extension as well by the end of this year.
It was always widely expected that Alderson would be here for the long haul, and that any turnaround with regard to the team’s performance wouldn’t happen for at least 3-4 years.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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This will be interesting…. I am sure the excuses will be in full on effect in this article. And if you ask me, he still gets paid by the wilpons, he doesn’t care about the fans nor the team so…
IMO, no way he gets extended. The end of his regualr deal at most, and would not surprise me at all if he turned over the riegns after 2013 and walked away.
so no, he does not “care” what the fans think about him, in terms of making moves to make himself look better in their eyes (or do anything he thinks does not fit with working toward whatever LT solution they are looking at). He also most likely is not looking for an extension, or some validation of another GM job. So pretty much puts him in a perfect position to be the “heavy” (do the dirty work?) since he is effectively untouchable.
I am just curious what the two of you would have done different.
Peter,
Wake me up when you get a response.
He’s not going anywhere until either the end of his contract or unless MLB decides otherwise. (Selig going out to pasture). If they were concerned about fan opinion right now then he wouldn’t be here to start with.
Pretty much this.
“he unearthed some cost-effective free-agent signings during his tenure” Capuano, Young, & Hairston.
We use to refer to this as simply some decent moves. Nothing earth-shattering, no secret or magic stat or formula in this era of the Mets where ANY good move, if one happens, somehow is treated as some kind of miraculous, ingenious coupe worthy of the second coming of Christ.
In good years and bad these types of acquisitions are nothing new and have been going on as long as the Mets have been in existence. But now a new generation of fan thinks that if Alderson somehow makes or oversees a good personnel move it’s regarded as some kind of epiphany of epic proportions that has never happened in Mets history when in truth, b4 Stoic, Saber Sandy came here happened all the time
none of those three were better than LoDuca, Valentin and Hernandez…
Yet we never hear about them when we talk FA signings do we?
Valentin almost as much as those 3 put together. And he was the lowest paid of the three you mentioned.
El Duque made over $13 million in his 2 years with the Mets (adjusted to today’s $)
LoDuca made nearly $15 million in his 2 years (adjusted for today’s $)
So maybe one of us needs to check his definition of “cost effective”
maybe one of us needs to check the definition of “winning ball games” instead of winning the “contract contest”.
The money is relative to each situation. Making moves in order to try and WIN ball games is not
Nifty. What you are outright refusing to acknowledge is that payroll land talent acquisition and intertwined. Even the Yankees with their ginormous payroll are being forced to streamline (somewhat).
Of course, if you don’t want to discuss payroll, then maybe you should stop…discussing payroll. You are the one who started this particular chain about cost effective signings. It is just silly and reflects poorly on you to just say “well you shouldn’t talk about it since it doesn’t matter”.
The Yankees are not being forced…
They HAVE decided that the luxury tax is too Cost prohibitive under the new CBA to make it worth spending at the levels they were.
They have said they would like to get down to 189Mil
Which would still make them the highest Payroll in the league….
Phillies being #2 @ 174Mil.
“The Yankees are not being forced…
They HAVE decided that the luxury tax is too Cost prohibitive under the new CBA to make it worth spending at the levels they were.”
So, they are relenting under the pressure of the payroll tax. That is being forced.
No that is just a decsion they have made, they were not COMPELLED to get under a certain amount and could at any time change thier mind to go over again if they felt the economic of it made sense to them….
What you don’t seem to understand is that they are not selling off all thier best players to get under the Luxury tax…They are merely going with what they have and not going out to spend on new stars which could change next year when they are done with Granderson or Cano will be asking for the moon and probably get it.
Yes, their decision is based off the same reasoning I use to not rob banks. The penalty is too stiff.
“What you don’t seem to understand is that they are not selling off all thier best players to get under the Luxury tax…They are merely going with what they have and not going out to spend on new stars ”
So, they are changing the way they do things because a new rule invokes a stiff penalty.
It’s just a price…They don’t lose any freedom by going over the Tax do they?
Doal is another of the new breed of financial baseball fans, watching CNBC and thinking the object of baseball for fans is to watch the owner make a few bucks. He doesn’t even know what a baseball field looks like. merely worried about poor old Fred not getting all that ponzi money anymore. so sad.
El Duque1 Million more TOTAL than Francisco over the same time period….Win El Duque
LoDuca 7.5 Mil per year….When you count up the Ramirez, Torres and Thole you get roughly the same amount!
And truth is today’s dollars is the fudge factor your relying on not what they actually got paid….
The dollar coversion hasen’t changed all that much in 6 years…
Maybe one of us needs to check his Inflation chart because it has been less than your making it out to be.
Oh, so you are going to lump in all of Alderson’s player acquisitions against your 3 cherry picked Minaya signings? Really?
I understand you don’t want to do a fair comparison because you know how that will end.
The fact is, Minaya’s 2 best acquisitions fell right into his lap since the Yankees and Red Sox both backed out and he had a bottomless checkbook to over pay both players.
Minaya many winning seasons/. Liarson all losing seasons. We know why you love Liarson. you don’t follow baseball. Clear as day
No YOU did that when you started talkng about AMOUNTS spent while ignoring the performance each got for the money…
So take you pick either a player by player comparison or a Money by Money comparison then end results as padilla so correctly pointed out…
What Omar spent was worth spending on and played meaningful games for an entire season….
The same amount under Sandy got you a season that ended in July two years running and yet you say he is a WISER spender than Omar….
“No YOU did that when you started talkng about AMOUNTS spent while ignoring the performance each got for the money…”
Cost effectiveness is the topic. Do keep up. We are balancing the production vs the cost.
“So take you pick either a player by player comparison or a Money by Money comparison”
No difference. We’re measuring the performance of the players vs the money they were given. We were going with the three players in question vs the 3 you brought up. You were then informed how that match up did not favor you so you went and threw a bunch of cherry picked guys into it.
“then end results as padilla so correctly pointed out…”
Who?
“What Omar spent was worth spending on and played meaningful games for an entire season….”
Jason Bay? Moises Alou? Scott Schoenweiss?
“The same amount under Sandy ”
When?
“got you a season that ended in July two years running and yet you say he is a WISER spender than Omar….”
Because he didn’t sink the franchise to give us some fake “meaningful September” which is somehow the gold standard for people who accuse others of “loser talk”.
getting 3 players who suck is not more cost effective than one player that does….
Especially when you wasted two extra roster spots to get the same amount of nothing.
3 cherry picked?
Omar signed Endy Chavez for peanuts….
Omar signed Takahashi for peanuts…who gave us a great 2010
Omar signed Barajas for peanuts…who gave us a pretty good 2010
Omar signed Tatis for peanuts…he won comeback player of the year in 2008…
again…
Sandy is not really a GM anymore…
Dan Warthen screwing with Matt Harvey is an inexcusable offense…he should’ve been fired eons ago…
the fact that Sandy kept the entire coaching ( or lack thereof ) staff together speaks volumes…
I just checked the average inflation rate since 2006 has been 2.18%
Me thinks you need to recalculate to get the TRUE numbers….
Nice info but I don’t think:
“it was always widely expected that Alderson would be here for the long haul,”
is necessarily true. I for one always anticipated him here to make the tough decisions, the unpopular decisions early and then hand it off to one of the other 2 following his contract.
I always figured he’d do his 4 years and be out.
Me too. He’s here mainly to see the restructuring of the org to sustainability while the Wilpons either get their acts together of find a buyer.
This is Jeff’s treasure chest. No buyer required.
Oh and I think it’s pretty evident by now that he’s purposely trying to lose in order to get a higher draft pick. That’s why he’s been letting good players go at nice prices for the last 3 offseasons and what some of us were complaining about right away in the very first off season. Of course he can never say it but in my opinion that’s what he’s been doing. And nobody here can prove that he hasn’t been purposely tanking the last 3 off seasons.
That is something I would like to see addressed at the level of mainstream media.
Don’t think he’s been tanking the last 3 seasons just thinking he’s doing the bare minimum to compete and it hasn’t worked. You can’t judge Alderson until 2014 at minimum so everyone needs to calm down.
I can’t help but give Sandy a letter grade of a B+. Wheeler, d’Arnaud, balking on Reyes, not overpaying for an average at best player of any kind, even the Marcum signing was a good one. The one thing that would get him from a B+ to an A would be filling the outfield better in some creative fashion. With that I trust him right now to rebuild our team and make it a good one for 2015 and beyond. I say keep him.
Notice how this new breed of loser lovin financial worrying fake fans would give him an A for a better outfield, but doesn’t mention the post season or even winning. Yeah, liarson has anew kind of fan. Fake ones.
If you think I’m a fake fan you seriously have no idea about what you are talking about.
I am simply stating that the GM is trying to right some wrongs by not spending someone else’s money on overpaid average at best talent. Something I aint is fake.
doug – no worries. A fake fan really doesn’t make sense anyway so just remember to keep your head up. If you were a fake fan, i’d consider why you wouldn’t choose a more enjoyable team to fake root for than the mets? Aren’t most fake fans yankees fans?
What the fans think doesn’t matter.
It’s stories like these that start the end of a GM’s tenure…
Ummm, pretty sure these types of things have been said since day 1.
And I bet if we looked at other teams, we’ll find the same thing.
Yes it WAS said that as soon as th Press starts getting on Sandy it will be the beginning of the end….
And this year the press has started getting on Sandy….
Tick Tock…
And that is why they play the game!
Woody Johnson will fire Rex Ryan before the Wilpon’s fire Alderson.
Can the Wilpon’s even fire Alderson is the question? Uncle Bud might need to sign off on that.
Sandy will not be fire, he will finish his tenure as GM and walk off.. Middle fingering mets fans in his way to a nice vacation, same thing he did in SD.
When he left SD they were a winning team and they were for most of his tenure.
CHECK AGAIN TOM……
He was brought here to get cut the payroll by a third, rebuild with young talent and get the farm system to be productive and in line with the big league program. Mission accomplished.
Anything he does from here on is gravy.
in other words you already have excuse ready in case the team fails on the field.
Never saw anything like this in my entire life watching this team.
I thought we agreed that you would not speak to me. It was your decision so try to keep to it for at least a week.
Otherwise, I shall be forced to taunt you mercilessly.
Sir Galahad: Is there someone else up there we can talk to?
French Soldier: No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time.
French Soldier: You don’t frighten us, English pig dogs. Go and boil your bottoms, you sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called “Arthur King,” you and all your silly English K-nig-hts.
Do what the hell you want. Your a bullshit artist who’s entire ideology is based on second guessing anyway. As for the Mr. shit for brains from the desert that keeps popping up in conversations that don’t involve him…
Bayonne, that is a lost cause, TRS keeps doing the same sh** over and over, the conversations is not with him yet he feels the need to butt in, but don’t look for Joe D to say anything to him, he’s part of the crew who exchange emails behind the scenes so he just like others is untouchable here. Had it been you or i, we would’ve been banned by now…
I count right here 3 comments that have NOTHING to do with the topic. Those RDM guys must lead MMO in posting the least relevant comments to the topic and Joe D let’s them do it. And how many times does it bump an interesting comment from the Recent Comments section that’s actually related to the topic. And it’s mostly TRS he’s impulsive and can’t help commenting everything that comes to his head and half the time it’s a wise crack not even related to the original post. Yet he actually runs a blog or should i say it’s more of a hobby cuz only a handful of people are there
“In the early days of the Internet, there was hope that the unprecedented tool for global communication would lead to thoughtful sharing and discussion on its most popular sites.
A decade and a half later, the very idea is laughable, says Gawker Media founder Nick Denton.
“It didn’t happen,” said Denton, whose properties include the blogs Gawker, Jezebel, Gizmodo, io9 and Lifehacker. “It’s a promise that has so not happened that people don’t even have that ambition anymore.
“The idea of capturing the intelligence of the readership — that’s a joke.”"
You my friend are living proof that the comment section as a use for intelligent discourse between adults is a failed experiment. Did they poll you for these results?
Maybe Nick Denton isn’t the guy who should be referred to there. Gawker sites have no problem pandering to audiences. (although, I do enjoy Deadspin and love Lifehacker)
Oh I think he even said that at one point they stopped trying and decided to produce what sells. I think other blogs are guilty of that as well. Nothing produces more clicks than a village idiot running around.
I’ve given up trying to have any sort of adult conversation with the Anger Kidz.
I’ve moved on to poking them like a ferret in a cage. Not very intellectually stimulating but fun nevertheless.
And quite bannable..
But have fun dude!
Uhhh, well, mission accomplish on the payroll, shouldn’t you wait up until wheeler throws a pitch in the majors? Or nimmo hits over 250 in the minors? or patient only works for us when we’re hammering your idol for being a horrendous GM? Amazing…
If the Mets stumble early, are the Sandy bashers going to blame Sandy 100%? Or are they going to heap scorn on Omar too?
If he Omar guys do thier job but they lose because the OF doesn’t help them to win then YES Sandy gets 100% of the blame!
So, if Duda and Kirk don’t produce…
I’m going to answer for metsie …
“Well if he had only fixed the OF then Kirk and Duda wouldn’t have been in a position to fail! So Sandy still gets 100% blame” :lol”
And if the Mets succeed and Kirk and Duda do well, then you know those same bashers are then going to say “Those are Omar’s guys!”
This entire Sandy vs Omar stuff is pathetic and eventually has to stop. You can’t judge one vs the other with any real logic anyway. Only assumptions and apples to oranges type debates. It’s Alderson’s team now, everyone on the the team is under his supervision. Thus if they fail he gets the blame and if they are successful he gets the credit. It’s just how it works. I am fine with blaming him for the last 2 years as long as you consider his situation in dependently. Comparing what he did in his first two years as opposed to Omar is just absolutely asinine and pointless, which is why I think some spend so much time doing it.
I totally agree. At this point the team should be considered 100% Sandy’s and he should get all of the blame or credit for whatever goes on this year. But you just know the usual suspects will bash ONLY Sandy if the team falters but will praise ONLY Omar if the team succeeds. You will see this dual standard on these forums throughout the year depending on whether the Mets are on a winning or losing streak.
Eh… does it really matter what they think?
I considered the team Alderson’s as soon as he was hired. At that point he could hire, fire, trade, release whom ever he wanted. He might have been handicapped by the previous regime but the team was still his.
Well, it would be nice if there were some consistency in their opinions.
Good luck with that. It’s hard enough to formulate a coherent opinion.
*Sigh* yes. I was hoping for at least 1 or 2 to commit either way, instead of waffling so they can pick and choose and have it their way … whenever its convenient. I guess it’s clear I was asking for too much!
They are cosistent. They want to win. You are consistent as well. You don’t care if a team wins. You and your pals are not baseball fans. Why are you all even following thid fraud. If you ain’t paid to be his puppets then you are really messed up losers.
Fire, yes. Hire, no. Thats the part of the equation many seem to miss. Alderson did not have an open check book as previous GMs did.
Sure, he is responsible for the product on the field but it would be illogical to judge him by the standards of what a Mets’ GM had at his disposal under normal circumstances.
Then I suggest the guys who want to paint Sandy in a good light stop using Omar’s spending as a comparative to how well Sandy is doing considering the team hasn’t won as many games as the team Omar left him with yet….
Who made those guy frontline starters on the team?
Who refused to get better than them for the OF?
Who traded away the only two OFers this team has had in the past three years?
Who refused to sign the only OF he found that was worth a damn?
Omar?
at this point, might as well consider pujols and Hamilton as OF ooptions they no longer have, since the guys you are fixated on both would have reached FA already anyway, even if they had not been traded.
One would have beenFA THIS year…..
And we would have had exclusive right to re-sign him….
Beltran was Beltran minus 5 Mil in Salary when he was available….
You could have had your Wheeler AND Beltran plus 5 Mil in cash to spend towards Francisco who is the most expensive guy we have signed other than the WIlpon insisted signing of Wright!
Remember Ivan I’m not the one who thinks Spending is bad and that you can find good players cheaply….
Thats the Sandy side’s belief….
So where is it?
Why didn’t he at least go after a Victorino on that two year deal which would carry him over until Nimmo is ready?
because he had a lousy year, is getting old, and they did not want to spend all the available money on him and get stuck for a 3 year commitment?
Have you ever heard of a team trading away a player of Beltran’s caliber only to turn around and sign him the next off season?
Now, can you imagine a team with the financial issues the Mets have been dealing with doing so?
“Remember Ivan I’m not the one who thinks Spending is bad and that you can find good players cheaply….
Thats the Sandy side’s belief….”
Generalizations based on lies.
“Why didn’t he at least go after a Victorino on that two year deal which would carry him over until Nimmo is ready?”
Because Victorino isn’t going to help.
yes his name is Cliff Lee!
Nope. Lee went from the Mariners to the Rangers before returning to Philly.
And again, do you see a team with the Mets financial issues paying out that kind of money at the time?
All in a single year!
Just as a reminder this IS what you asked….
“Have you ever heard of a team trading away a player of Beltran’s caliber only to turn around and sign him the next off season?”
Well Phillies got him back the next Offseason didn’t they?
By a single year, you mean two years.
“Well Phillies got him back the next Offseason didn’t they?”
Nope
Now your Lying….
He was traded in the 2009-2010 Offseason
Was re-Signed in ther 2010-2011 Offseason
So much for that pile of crap you attempted…
It would be funny if someone went and linked to all those posts about if the Mets should offer Pagan arbitration. I wonder how many people lamenting his loss and signing his praises now were trashing him back then.
Also,
“Who made those guy frontline starters on the team?
Who refused to get better than them for the OF?”
Alderson did. So, does that mean when the prospect conversation comes up, you will tell the people that hold Duda and Kirk up as success stories that they are incorrect?
“Who refused to sign the only OF he found that was worth a damn?”
Hairston is a platoon player. If you want to say they should have traded him, sure. But again, lets not revise history.
Only the folks who were rooting for Wilpn and suckling Sandy had reservations….
But if you want to go down the road of AT THE TIME thinking apply it to Perez and Bay and Castillo as well….
OOPS don’t want to go there do you?
I was against the Pagan trade from DAY ONE!
So was JoeD…
It was you and the FIRM who thought it was a good day not us….
So if anyone was wrong about Pagan at the time it wasn’t me and JoeD!
And I dare you to find even ONE POST of mine at the time that said the pagan trade was good or had any objections to his being given his Arb number….
Knock yourself and get back to me when you find one.
Doesn’t take much to get your crazy train to jump the rails, does it.
Again, the Pagan trade looked like a good deal at the time. And don’t tell me you think he’s a $40 million player. Like I said, look at those posts and see who was calling him a “POS’ and such.
the fact is, Ramirez had one bad year and Torres was a throw in because Kirk was supposed to come up this past season.
I honestly didn’t care one way or the other. I figured this trade was for talented guys who just couldn’t make it click. a change of scenery deal.
TO YOU AND THE FIRM….
NOT TO ME!
Go back and look!
And the Bay, Perez and castillo contracts were also considered good at the time they were signed….
Best available for the price at the time according to many…SO I guess they were good deals too?
“Hairston is a platoon player.”
the ugly truth is that appearing to look competitive for the sake of looking competitive is a WILPON MOVE…its half-assed….its a “meaningful game in september move”
meaningful = chase for a .500 record
Sandy would’ve traded Hairston if he was given the chance…
Sandy can never air our the wilpons…
same way Omar had to bite his tongue when Jeff Wilpon said Omar was NEVER interested in Manny Ramirez…
The Wilpons still have their hands in the pot..
If the wilpons had the choice of spending 100 mil and easily winning the division OR
spending 60 mil and competing for a 2nd WC spot til the last day of the season
best believe they will go with option 2
if we lose the WC spot…so what…they just saved 40 mil.
“Sandy would’ve traded Hairston if he was given the chance”
I don’t think the Wilpons would have stopped that deal. Alderson didn’t trade Hairston because he chose not to.
Donal, he has a habit of taking mere speculation (his own) and presenting it as fact. He makes things up all the time, especially if it makes Omar look better. Ignore it, because if you try to correct his inaccuracies all the time, you’d be replying every second!
There is no indication any of the Wilpons told Sandy what to do regarding trades — even Dickey — and to suggest they’d have a strong opinion on Hairston either way is patently ludicrous.
For example, another fairytale from him just above: Jeff Wilpon never said Omar was never interested in Manny. Wilpon said that Omar never came to him to ask to acquire Manny. Two different things. And the idea that Omar bit his tongue when Wilpon said that is hilarious.
Yeah, I figured. Sandy bashers want to have it both ways. Double standards.
Determining how well players did their job and what they should have done is subjective!
Actually metro 12 liar son jr or whoever you are, Sandy bashers are baseball fans. You and donal and the rest are wilpon lovers, frauds, coming to a baseball site and pretending you know somethoing. Pu[pets for Mr Liarson, metro 12 fraud, liar, jr, and most of all puppet.
Unlike Perseus who has the eye of the Stygian Witches and therefore could answer this post title question in a snap. I have to resort to more barbaric methods of an online Ask 8-ball.
http://www.ask8ball.net/
LoL according to Ask 8-Ball when I asked “Will Alderson Survive The Fans Ire If Mets Stumble Early?” it’s answer was,
“My sources say no”
Sources?
Well NJ in true 8 ball fashion I rephrased the question to
“Will Sandy stay his entire contract with the Mets?”
and got
Outlook Good.
Looks like all along the reports have been using the same device.
Shoutout appreciated.
I imagine if Alderson was allowed to speak freely he’d say something like this.
“Are you guys kidding me? Why do I have to answer these questions?! I’ve been in baseball for over 30 years! I’m Harvard educated. Do you realize what this organization looked like when I got here?! It was a train wreck!!! A freaking train wreck! Not only was the major league roster a complete mess, not only was the payroll a joke, because the previous regime spent like drunken sailors! But you had no idea how to develop talent!!! I was brought in to rebuild an entire organization!!! To show these buffoon owners how to run every thing from the baseball end. And hopefully give them a blue print on how to do things long after I leave. And I have to answer questions about the 2013 outfield? Are you kidding me? I’m trying to build a freaking house here, and you’re asking me why we don’t have any furniture yet!!! Do I really have to answer these pathetic questions? How about letting the smart guy do his job! Idiots.”
He should have a Tortorella moment.
Sorry, I did have to laugh at this and it brought back memories of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM
but he didn’t inherit a train wreck. That’s you just being bitter your Mets lost big games on the field from 2006-2008 and you’re looking to blame everybody but the actual competitive participants.
And another LIE is the roster was not a mess it’s actually the current foundation of the future right now. And the minors was pretty good. Yes there was turbulence in the administrative area but not on the ball field.
If 79 Wins is a train wreck I wonder what it’s called when you only win 77 and 74 two years running…
A Newtown?
Fact is, Alderson inherited a 130+ million $ payroll with 5 to 7 open roster spots, his ace pitcher out for the upcoming year, well over 150 million $ aready tied up to players for 2012 and 2013, an utterly mediocre farm system (disclaimer: Omar turned the farm from terrible to utterly mediocre, I’ m not blaming this on Omar who obviously wasn’t asked to rebuild but rather ” restore winning” ) and a team that was coming off 79 and 72 win seasons respectively after failing to reach the playofffs or 90 wins in the two years prior to the sub .500 seasons. Oh, and that along with an ownership group facing a 1 billion $ lawsuit after losing over 500 million $ in fake money with Uncle Bernie two years before and their other businesses being hit by economic crisis, yet a stubborn unwillingness to cash out by selling the team but instead clinging to the franchise out of apparent pride.
I have yet to hear about an alternate convincing plan for sustainable winning for those who believe Alderson has chosen the wrong track based on these circumstances.
Again, he hasn’ t been perfect. Mistakes have been made. Fortunately mostly small mistakes.
Time and ultimately success will determine how his tenure will eventually be viewed.
Here’s a plan for sustainable winning, which the Mets HAVE been in position before:
Now here it is:
Get some friggin hits or MAKE CONTACT with runners in scoring position in the biggest spots of the season, don’t make dumb base running mistakes when you see what may be a potential HR in the most crucial games of the season, and relief pitchers get some clutch outs in the most difficult games of their lives.
Do those things and you’ll have less post season losses and more post season appearances to help catapult your team into the next season instead of losing crucial heartbreakers leading to over-reactive changes.
That’s how you’ll achieve sustained success. ON THE BALL FIELD.
And that’s the ONLY way you can achieve sustained success, on the ball field – as long as you TRY to get the best talent you can as smart as you can.
But second guessing Bullshit artists like Boomer will walk around muttering to themselves contract amounts & owner finances while all this is going on.
I agree. Alderson has made some mistakes as listed above, particularly to me, sitting on his hands over the Reyes sitch, when i think he knew we were not serious bidders for the guy. And Hairston + some trades that went awry–but trades are subject to the whims of the Gods, and the Beltran & RA trades promise to be very fruitful for us (i hope).
I fully support the new organizational philosophy of developing home grown talent and i’m confident that once we’re on the cusp of contention, Alderson will be pro-active in developing the talent, using some for trade chips, and signing F/A’s that fill a distinct need.
Historically, as noted here many times, we’ve been almost negligent in tuning spending to actual production. It was imperative to change. 2014 / 15 here we come…
Keep in mind the Wilpons have a heavy and silent influence on this…
But the proper way to rebuild is all the way…
1 — trading pagan for a middle-reliever and an aging CF on the decline = negative move…
EVEN if Ramirez was good in 2012…he is a free-agent soon…
I can understand Pagan only having a year left…not getting along with Terry…Sandy was better off trading Pagan for B prospect minor leaguers
instead…they went on another smear campagne, rumors of Angel not getting along with his coach or being a clubhouse cancer emerged ( surprise surprise )…
well from what i hear, Beltran talked up Pagan to Bruce Bochy in 2011…enough so that Bruce took Beltran up on his recommendation and traded for Pagan.
so much so that he traded one of his favorite players ( torres ) for a guy who supposedly had no value….
2 – Half-Assing the Jose Reyes thing…getting back Kevin Pawlecki….for one of the best SS in baseball…is a horrifically bad move….by not trading him in the 2010 off-season or mid-season 2011…they committed themselves to making sure Reyes was a met for 2012-2017…which also means 2B is Tejada’s…..which also means the mets have a better defense up the middle…which means Murphy is a guy who can play 1B/3B and allows the Mets to decide who out of Wright/Ike/Murphy has the most long term value…either in the return they bring…or the value on the club…
The bashing they have taken for this in my opinion led to them resigning David Wright before December even hit….David said they had til April to talk, they bargained against themselves and signed him 4 months before that…
the wilpons have always been averse to criticism…
Right now, no one on earth would trade for David Wright and his contract…
Jose on the other hand had Boston and Toronto ready to take on that contract…
Can you move Jose to 2B when he gets a lil older and loses range ? YUP !
Can you move Wright to SS? nope…2B? nope…1B? and hit 15 HR? lol NOPE…how about CF? Nope…does he have enough power to justify moving him to RF/LF? Nope !
The mets silenced all that talk of moving Wright to the OF in 2011 when Murphy and Turner were doing just fine at 3B and we had nobody in LF…
so if Wright cant make the move at age 28…its doubtful they move him at age 34…
like Chipper Jones, Wright started out as a SS…
Unlike Chipper Jones, Wright never budges from 3B
I can go on and on…but i have work to do…
good luck defending Sandy !
JDD,
that’s certainly a valid argument.
We agree that Reyes’ value wasn’t maximized. He should have been extended or traded but not let go with merely draft pick compensation. Realistically instead of Plawecki & Reynolds, the Mets should now have OF Gary Brown and C Tommy Joseph from their usual trade partners, the SF Giants for Reyes. Considering that Reyes wasn’t 100 % healthy, that’s about the maximum return.
As for Pagan, his value was rather low last winter. Let’s send him to the SF Giants again for finesse LH Eric Surkamp who would join the loaded Las Vegas rotation for 2013.
And finally, let’s trade Hairston at the 2012 deadline for OF Roger Kieschnick ( about the # 25 prospect forbtge SF Giants, a potential 4th outfielder).
So, basically, the Mets of 2013 aren’t any different but have a couple of extra prospects at the upper levels. Which is guess is worth something.
I very much disagree on David Wright. If your goal is to win from 2014 through 2017, you better keep him with very shallow free agent classes in terms of impact bats coming up for the next couple of years. Only if you want to do a total rebuild and shoot for a 2017 to 2020 window from the get-go, keeping Wright now, makes no sense.
Wright is the best bet in the entire Mets organization to post an .850+ OPS in 2015 or 2016 as well for now. There’s no reason not to expect him to age well into his mid 30s, just like fellow top 3bmen from Chipper to Rolen to Beltre, Ar. Ramirez, heck Michael Young.
So, will he get fired if the Mets don’t finish May at .600?
Really? Do you think his job rests on the ever changing fancies of the idiot masses?
Are we so self involved to think we really have influence like that? Does anyone here really believe that actual decision makers (on any team) listen to the knuckle draggers calling WFAN at 2 in the afternoon with 1 iota of concern for what they say?
“Really? Do you think his job rests on the ever changing fancies of the idiot masses?”
I often think about that myself. Like Sandy is sitting in his office saying,
Sandy: “You know, Joe from Long Island is pretty pissed. We better get cracking or my job is on the line….”
Twoheaded assistant: “Sandy, it’s worse than that, there was 100 negative comments on MB and another 1,222 on MMO about your job so far today.”
Sandy: “Well hell, someone grab that lamp over there and I will take the rug, it’s time to get the hell out of here before they storm the brigade.”
You seem to forget the Wilpon History….
They always sacrifice and underling when the Masses demand a head and they want to get out from the bad PR of the team.
I agree that there has been a lot of that and I think it was one of the reasons I was encouraged when Alderson was hired. I didn’t think he would bend to the whims and insecurities of the Wilpons. I am not sure if that is always the case or not.
Well I was hoping the same thing when he got here….
Yet 99.9% of Sandy’s supporters say/blame the Wilpons for messing with him and tossing him around like one of Jeffy’s Teddy Bears as an excuse for what he has done so far…
I mean everything from Signing Wright(which is so UNSANDYLIKE), Not trading Reyes to purging us of a Cy Young pitcher and not spending has all been laid at the feet of his doing the WIlpons bidding….
Yet then they end the sentence with he’s doing a great job….
Is it him? Is it Wilpon? is it even a good job or just treading water until something breaks to change the situation?
By the end of this year if they do not finish ahead of the Marlins and Weelr or d’Arnaud do not do enough to make people forget about Dickey, and if they lose more money this year to offset the savings they think they are going to ge…The press will get on the team, say change is needed and since the Wilpons are not inclined to fire themselves they will fire Sandy and call it macaroni…
But that was the point of Selig sending Alderson. To prevent the Wilpons from doing that sort of thing.
My opinion as well.
Yet 99.9% of people who like Sandy blame the Wilpons for stopping him from doing things and messing with his works….
Go figure…
I tend to agree. Of course I will be fair that it does seem like the re-signing of Wright to some could go against that. I for one think that Alderson was fine with that move and it wasn’t just the Wilpons. I still believe that he looked at it as a move that will pay for itself financially. Many rebuilding teams keep a face of the franchise around if they believe that player will still be productive once the rebuild is complete.
Ya, the Wright extension was not an “on the field move”. He’s still got some All Star years left in him, but that was more for marketing and other reasons. In the big picture, it may help, but he won’t be a $18 million or whatever type player for 7 years.
I agree, he mostly likely will never have the baseball stats to live up to his entire contract. Of course we know that is not why those types of deals are signed. I also go back to the Mets saying that part of his contract will come from their marketing budget and as I asked then to get no answer, because I assume no one knows, how much is coming from that budget and is that a normal move that all teams do? Did they decide to go with less TV commercials and billboards to be able to afford Wright? LOL.
I wonder how often that is the case? Votto, Tulo, Kemp, Braun, Ethier etc etc all signed deals within 2 years of their respective teams signing new, long term TV contracts. In Kemp’s case, he signed right before his team was sold. It makes me think that baseball operations aren’t the only ones picking up the tabs.
Depends on what you mean by an $18 million player. Will he be worth that to the club in toto? More than likely. He’s going to be a Met for life, no small feat for any player these days, a bridge between what was and what’s to come, a mentor to the youngsters and whether some like it or not he is the face of this franchise.
As much as this is a game it is first and foremost a business. Wright will definitely payback his contract, on the field and off.
I mean in relation to pure between the lines stuff.
Quite possibly. Inflation being what it is these days with the debasement of our currency, his contract might look like a bargain in 3 or 4 years.
yes Mr Limited Liability….
With a crushing 1.7% inflation rate (LOL) what you said makes sense….
If you believe the government inflation rate, published by the same geniuses at the BLS who think the real unemployment rate is under 10%, then you should put your next tooth under your pillow and wait for the tooth fairy.
See when the government goes on a multi-year cash printing spree and holds interest rates artificially low … eh, forget it. I cant seem to get you to understand he basics of baseball financing. Macro economics is a bridge too far.
So much for that attempt at discrediting a source….
I didn’t get it from the government…
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
>>So much for that attempt at discrediting a source….
>>I didn’t get it from the government…
Uh, yea, you did. Who exactly do you think the BLS is?
>Rates of inflation are calculated using the Current Consumer Price Index published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For 2012, the most recent monthly data (12-month based) is used in the chart and graph.
You’re just mailing it in at this point.
Oh rely? Prove this came from the government….Read at the bottom of the page…
US Inflation Calculator · Copyright © 2008-2013 CoinNews Media Group LLC (Coin News) · All Rights Reserved
So the government is the coinnews media group…Interesting…
Give up your way out of your league there Boomer…Get someone else from the firm who is much better at this than you…
I just did prove it to you. I took the quote from the page you linked. According to the piece, they got their numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the federal government.
Look, they have a website and everything. The .gov thing should be a dead giveaway.
http://www.bls.gov
I’l tell you what….
You post a link to the inflation rate from a source you DO respect…
How about that!
Until then My data is more valid than your lack of such…
Have fun!
I’lll give you credit, even when you are proven wrong about your own link you don’t even acknowledge and just try and change the subject.
Well done.
First off my link wasn’t from bls look at the address…
Second you have yet to show a single number that disproves what I said was the rate…
yet you think you hasve proved something about inflation rates…
Keep Trying there Slappy
Well I can. I just thought I would whack you around on that point and it is clear to everyone you were wrong.
You see the BLS changed the way they measure inflation in 1980 and the result has been a much lower, less volatile number. If in fact the BLS used their old methodology the inflation rate would be over 3 times as high. For example, in 2011 the BLS reported an inflation rate of 3.1%, just as your chart showed (again, not surprising since they are using BLS numbers as I stated). If they used their old model the number would have been 11%.
Why did they change? Because the feds use this number to calculate the interest on securities and cost of living adjustments to things like social security. In other words, they are cooking the books. Have been for years.
Here’s an article that lays it all out for you.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/4952/is-america-hiding-its-true-inflation-rate-and-could-the-u-s-be-as-insolvent-as-greece
A much better source for inflation data is the non-partisan American Institute for Economic Research. They haven’t posted 2012 numbers yet but they reported an inflation rate of 8% for 2011 last year.
https://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change
Let me know if I can be of any other service.
And all you found was someone deciding to calculate it differently than everyone else and wanted to make things sound worse than they are….
Proved nothing at all there….
Because like it or not none of those places are in control of the federal Reserve that makes it’s decision based on how THEY calculate inflation not some policy wonks looking to be employed by the government to fix problems they seem to think exist using FUZZY MATH but the government do not….
But you Enjoy what you percieve to be a victory…..
Still waiting for your proof that the Mets are not a Limited Liability corporation….
So get you homework from yesterday done!
By the way we are all going to havethe BIGGESTLAUGH at the firm’s expense when Sandy gets fired without ever even getting into a playoff….
Tick Tock….The Firm will declare bankruptcy!
LOL
Keep waiting. I don’t have to prove anything. You claimed that once a company is an LLC they are always an LLC. This is not true as I stated yesterday. Companies can and do change their legal structure for a variety of reasons including mine that was an LLC and now isn’t.
Keep on Running…. none of what your talking about proves the mets are not an LLC….
Donal, even if he is not an 18mill player 7 years from now (and with salary inflation, that may not be all that much by then!) on the field, he also won’t be one on the payroll.
remember, the contracts is middle-loaded. Counting 2013 as year 1, in year 7 he only makes 15mill, and year 8 12 ill. So in theory, he contract will mirror his relative production.
and IMO you can consider those last 2 years to be the “marketing budget” component.
The signig of Wright…
The NOT TRADING of Reyes
The NOT TRADING of Hairston
the NOT SPENDING at the deadline last year or this offseason….
About the only thing the Wilpons have not gotten blamed for is the Pagan trade that everyone thought was a good day until it wasn’t anymore and we saw them play.
I don’t know of anyone blaming the Wilpons for not trading Reyes or Hairston.
I blame Reyes spending most of July on the DL for him not being traded. Or maybe the Mets really thought they could bring him back.
agreed about Reyes. Maybe they were hoping to cash in on him at the deadline, but if so, the hammy wiped that idea away.
IMO, the only move that I see as coming from above is not trolling Wright before signing him. the rest, belong to the FO for whatever reason they did them.
When it was brought upafteyes left many f you said the reason he wasnt traded was because the WIlpons didn’t want to lose the attraction of the Batting Champ the rest of the way….
When it was Hairston it was in the name of getting to .500 to boost ticket sales…
I know you don’t remember them becauase it was merely stuff made up off the top of the heads of people desperate to make an excuse for not trading Reyes when he should have if he had no intentions of re-signing him….
very possible they had every hope of signing him. If he had been willing to sign a deal within the parameters presented to his agent, he would still be here. The mets just were not goingt blank check on him.
and once he bacame damaged goods in july, odds are the trade offers became less appealing than the 2 draft picks, so at that point, relaly no reason to trade him. Better to play out the year, see if they could get him back, and if not take the picks.
And he thought not even making an offer was the way to accomplish that?
everyone involved knows and acknowledged that they made an “offer”. Whether you agree or not, I will go with the principles on this one.
What was the offer?
You believe it because you WANT to….Not because it’s true…
And the primary PRINCIPLE involved Reyes himself is on record as saying he was HURT they made NO OFFER!
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7328244/jose-reyes-sounded-hurt-new-york-mets-never-made-offer
How about Sandy he is a principle no?
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/12/05/alderson-mets-never-made-formal-offer-to-jose-reyes/
So I guess by priniciples you mean Metro and the rest of the Firm….
No one actually involved in the dealings with Reyes…
“When it was brought upafteyes left many f you said the reason he wasnt traded was because the WIlpons didn’t want to lose the attraction of the Batting Champ the rest of the way”
No, I didn’t
“When it was Hairston it was in the name of getting to .500 to boost ticket sales…”
No, I didn’t.
Its funny when you have to go beyond generalizing to outright lying to support your weak position.
Well then bring up to the rest of our fellow members of the firm because THEY DID SAY THAT!
LMAO
Slurpy Alderson sure has alot of suckers on this board
Sandy is doing more than just lowering payroll…
there is a whole legal and business side to running a club that we never get to see…
Sandy is really acting more like the COO we never had…
In a perfect world would be Sandy as COO and Omar as GM…they would compliment each other very well…
Reality =
Jeff Wilpon = COO with Omar as GM…eventually turning into GM by committee
then Sandy as COO and quickly turning to GM by committee
That is an excellent point.
Off Topic:
@Mets
YOU chose Saturday, May 11 prior to our 1:10 PM game. We appreciate your input and thank you for participating. #BannerDay
https://twitter.com/Mets/status/295977493087780864
“No matter how bad the Mets perform in 2013 or how angry some fans may get, I would speculate that Alderson will serve out all four years of his deal and possibly even get a new extension as well by the end of this year.”
Totally agree. The Wilpons know their own financial issues along with the mess of a roster that Sandy inherited are the 2 big reasons for any lack of swifter success.
We are even under the assumption that the Wilpons even have the ability to fire him.
I really do believe they have that ability. Though they may consult with Selig first, if only because Selig had urged the Wilpons to hire him.
Once again metro the non fan proving that he knows nothing but fred’s wallet. That is true love. Worrying about a frauds money. Sick but true.
Sure, eventually the fans & public will increase pressure.
That said, Alderson won’t be held accountable until after 2014, i.e. the first season that counts.
His tenure has been far from perfect:
Letting Reyes walk with only two remote draft picks to show for.
A lack of creativity when it came to patching the roster on a shoestring budget.
Wastin the few available dollars on a mediocre bullpen last year.
Scrapping a Gulf Coast League to save the money you’d spend on 4 months of DJ Carrasco – just to return it again a year later.
That said, the positives outweigh the negatives by quite a margin:
Excellent returns in trades of Carlos Beltran and RA Dickey – staying cool & calm among the impatience of fans & media asking for a much quicker solution – thus maximizing the trade value of these two veterans. Basically the excess value in these trades makes up for selling low on Reyes. Wheeler, D’ Arnaud, Syndergaard, Plawecki, Reynolds and Becerra for one & a half seasons from Dickey, Beltran and Reyes is a fine overall return – besides saving between 35 to 49 million $ overall. Though it could have been even more.
Creating an organizational development philosophy – at least for the young pitching with tremendous depth and an unusually low injury attrion rate
Resisting any temptation – in spite of public pressure – to spend on anything beyond shortterm stopgaps to ultimately regain full control of a payroll gone astray in the wake of the Bernie Madoff scam & some questionable contracts handed out by his predecessor.
Giving Dickey & Niese very team favorable extensions and extending must-keeper David Wright at modest cost for a player of his stature.
All in all, Alderson gets a final season in 2013 to keep building below the surface. By 2014, results will have to start showing up. And by 2018 we”ll have a much better idea whether this is a typical Mets flash in the pan or – finally – an extended stretch of sustained winning.
Of course, it’s quite stunning to me how impatient and irrational and non- understanding of the rebuilding process a lot of – generally informed – fans seemingly still are. That with a ridiculous total of 3 (!) playoff appearances in the 22 years prior to Alderson’s arrval in spite of being among the top 5 biggest spending teams during that time. 20+ years of spending more $ per win than pretty much every team in Baseball, constantly going for the ” quick-fix”.Well, that approach didn’t exactly work.
Will the new one ? There are no guarantees, of course. It’s full or risk for sure. But it costs a fraction of the cost of the one that hasn’t worked for over 20 years except for brief stretches.At worst, you can always revert to the old ” ways” and rehire Steve Phillips or maybe Jim Bowden to make splashy moves…
considering that Sandy wont be around to reap the benefits…we can always blame the NEXT GM in 2019 if Sandy’s prospects fail…
whats crazy is that Travis is 24…and Brian McCann is 28…
Most catchers in the NL that have extensive careers START their careers around 21…
why do i have a feeling travis is going to be our 1B with Juan Centeno being our starting catcher…
Well, if the team is still crappy / mediocre in 2015, let alone 2019, then Sandy Alderson and his team will have failed and rightfully will be replaced by someone else who´ll hopefully do better. However, if you´re trying to rebuild an average team with a high payroll, a fringe average farm system and have to cut cost massively, I guess you should be given a little time. Usually, a “rebuilding” takes 4 or 5 years under normal circumstances. Since the circumstances aren´t exactly normal, it´s kind of difficult to judge this after 26 months, is it ?
I don´t get the D´Arnaud / McCann part of your post.
D´Arnaud is a month older than Matt Harvey and turns 24 in February and McCann – who reached the majors at a rather young age – turns 29 in February.
Being age 24 at the time of his likely major league debut seems quite fine. Basically the same age as several other good catchers when they debuted – Carlos Santana (CLE) or Miguel Montero (ARI) come to mind. Where is the problem ?
Of course, it´s comforting to know that Juan Centeno and maybe Kevin Plawecki a little down the road are available as insurance policies if D´Arnaud has to switch positions for some reason.
It’s not quite accurate that the stench from pre-Alderson years has cleared. Sandy is still inhibitied by the outrageous contracts of the former regime. Just because Jason Bay is gone doesn’t mean we’re not paying for him. Alderson has stabilized a franchise that was worse than drifting with almost no resources at his disposal when he did. Sure some of his free agent calls were busts. That happens to every franchise. Yet, Alderson has brought an adult, professional atmosphere to the Met operation something we sorely lacked before his arrival. A good comparison – the Jets! Before Sandy arrived the Met organization was the NYC circus act now replaced by the Jets. I understand things will be tough for one more year. When millions of salary goes off the books at the end of this year, we can more fairly judge the job Sandy is doing.
“It’s not quite accurate that the stench from pre-Alderson years has cleared. Sandy is still inhibitied by the outrageous contracts of the former regime. ”
Sandy now has a payroll below 70 million.
That stench is the BS the FIRM gives us everyday
Teflon Sandy is a professional BS artist.
Didn’t he promised to fix the outfield? BP? get a real closer? Instead he makes fun at his own inept players.
I think we are confusing fan ire with pressure from management. Alderson is not going anywhere even if this team loses the 90 plus that it probably does this year. We have been sold a bill of goods that the only way to build a “sustainable” winner is to stock the farm system and have payroll flexibility. Now apparently having a 110 million payroll isn’t nearly flexible enough, we need to get it down into the bottom 1/3 of the league. That is the “adult” and professional thing to do. Having a GM that makes fun of his own players and cannot conduct a 30 second interview on WFAN without incident is also quite adult and professional.
On a personal level, Sandy Alderson is an embarrassment. The fact that he is the face of the franchise, tells you all you need to know about the competence of ownership and the front office.
That being said, (and despite Alderson’s numerous representations to the contrary) this is a rebuilding process and you don’t pull the plug three year’s in. You wait until the end of 2015 and see where you are. But giving a guy a B+, for slashing payroll and getting three prospects is ridiculous. I don’t remember people carrying on that Jim Duquette got Royce Ring (the 18th pick in the draft) for Roberto Alomar.
Hi Rob,
I will make this short.
We have the infield and starting rotation plus a Parnell and a few possible arms coming up for the bullpen but we have no further pen of any depth or quantity, nor do we have enough good prospects other than perhaps the potential of Duda with the bat to even make a potentially half way decent upcoming outfield (Baxter, Kirk, Valdy as starters?). Nimmo is a few years away.
Sandy is not rebuilding. If one rebuilds by developing a core and THEN going after those free agents thought best to supplement them well,again, we have our young rotation, our young infield, a young catcher. When is the right time if not now?
Isn’t that core ready in 2013? Wheeler, Harvey, d”Arnaudd, Familia, Mejia along with those already on the club? Look at the list of free players available.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents
Many good selections but how come still no going after even one? Some say they need one more year to develop. Ok, lets agree on that point – 2013 might be too soon to fill out the rest of the roster.
Many even contend 2014′s list of projected free agents is going to be even deeper and more viable as well. However a few astute observers on MMO have correctly pointed out they are also mostly all older and not those to build around a team geared for youth.
Sandy knows this too – or should.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html
So would not this year be better than next – when we would have to commit to those with a year or two left but who but would still command contracts beyond that time frame that would tie-us up both financially and roster-wise?
I just picked out from this year’s group some who are all in their prime, some in their late twenties but none older than 32. Even just three or four of them – on paper – resolves our outfield and bullpen issues and helps the kids not just in 2013 but for a few years down the line (and we replenish the older ones with younger ones as required in future years). As of day one, those options were:
Outfield: Keet Hariston to platoon with Duda – then pursues one or two like Bourn, Upton, Gomes (to platoon with Duda if Hairston not kept), Pagan and Swischer
Infield: Set as is
Catcher: Napoli, Navarro instead of Buck or just wait for d”Arnaud to be called up.
Starting Rotation: Set as is.
Bullpen: Re-sign Rauch and acquire two from a list that includes Adams, Affeldt, Broxton, Gorzelanny, Madson, Soria, Uehara
Just three or four of the above – any combination of outfielders and relievers – would not compliment the youth at this time? Would it be better than waiting a year for more older players with their best years mostly behind them? Would not 2013 also be good for the team to become more familiar with each other as the kids (Wheeler, d’Arnaud, Harvey, Mejia, Familia, etc. get a full year of experience under their belt?
Notice – I include Wheeler and d’Arnaud and don’t scoff of not having retained Dickey, Beltran or Reyes?
Why isn’t Sandy doing anything? If he thinks we are still one year from being ready, next year’s list isn’t going to be of help for us for the reasons already stated. We have only so much left in the minors to count on. So again, why isn’t Sandy taking the next steps now that he won’t be able to next year?
It is because he was brought in to cut costs to the bare minimum so the Wilpons could remain owners. Besides TWICE being on the verge of default by having no working capital to pay off their bills, Fred Wilpon also had to put $38 million of HIS OWN PERSONAL MONEY into the team during 2011. What does that have to say about the financial state of flux of the organization when in the big market in New York?
No moves to begin the completion of the re-building process, We have that young starting rotation and young infield. We have a young catcher with potential.
What does that show – that the Mets are seriously rebuilding or that their plan is to simply field the least expensive team they could and acquire as many prospects as possible in the hope (which is not a plan) that there will be enough to fill out the team and possibly compete (unlike Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego and up to this season – Oakland) while the Wilpons try to keep the organization from default.
Again, Sandy is a lawyer and business person working for a corporation that is in the business of making money, not losing it. His own statements and understanding about the game shows he does not have the professional knowledge to make player moves and evaluate talent, way too many to repeat now.
His plan is to allow the Wilpons to economically survive. A plan that only builds up on prospects and inexpensive players without taking the necessary further steps, that is not a rebuilding plan – it’s a financial plan. And if one says he doesn’t have the money to take those other necessary steps, that only proves my point further.
And if he actually has a thought out plan and is on track with it, when is he going to take the next step forward? 2013 is his time. 2014 does not provide young free agents. We stripped ourselves of all good players who command higher salaries (other than keeping the face of the franchise). So if I am wrong about money being a factor and it is more the factor about spending it wisely and not throwing it away then again, why haven’t they begun doing so. The nucleus is here.
Is it because there is a bigger motive than just winning games and building a team?
Guess I was wrong, this wasn’t so short after all. LOL
Bravo
Joey D.,
Glad you kept it short
I agree with most everything you say, and will further it by saying that the money nonsense is now a BS excuse. It was legit last year with the billion$ lawsuit hanging over their heads, but they have now refinanced the SNY debt, have access to $250 mil more working capital, have a team and a TV station together worth billions, and need to invest in upgrading players immediately. The clock is ticking on Alderson. The fans will speak with their feet.
Joey D.,
the answer why the Mets haven´t been more aggressive in adding talent this winter is pretty obvious.
Leaving any possible financial restraints aside, I´m pretty sure that Alderson & Co. don´t think that the Mets – even with a few significant additions are a playoff team.
Say, you add Bourn & Valverde tomorrow, plus trade for a RHH corner OF, say, Michael Cuddyer of the Rockies (in exchange for, say Jacob DeGrom and Cesar Puello for example). Is that team going to challenge the Braves & Nationals in 2013 ? Quite unlikely.
One bonus of not “going for it” in 2013 is to be able to focus more on developing young pieces like Wheeler, D´Arnaud or even Familia, Mejia and others. Or keep Harvey on frequent extra rest, take him out earlier in games than you normally would.
That leaves them better prepared in 2014 as more refined young pieces under longterm control and thus more likely to challenge.
And instead of burning money on medium or longterm deals now – essentially wasting one year worth of salary – you have a clean slate for 2014.
Which doesn´t mean that if Bourn falls into your lap, you wouldn´t want him. But any substantial addition you make now beyond a Marcum type 1-year deal also has to be of use going forward in 2014 or 2015. Especially if it involves parting with young talent or draft picks.
“Is that team going to challenge the Braves & Nationals in 2013 ? Quite unlikely.”
ok…here is the DOMINO effect….
dont challenge the braves and nationals….hell we wont challenge the PHILLIES either….
so 2013 is a battle for 4th place….
they can predict very low attendance….
so signing David Wright served exactly what purpose ?
2014…pretty much a wash too…
now we have 5 straight years with declining attendance….
this is why the David Wright signing ( meant to protect a steep decline in attendance ) was absolutely retarded…
we could’ve at least attempted to see what a return would look like…
but the backlash from reyes leaving for nothing def influenced resigning him before spring training ended….
Why does 2014 automatically become a rebuilding season as well just because you don´t go in in 2013 ?
2013 is about graduating Harvey (for good), Wheeler, D´Arnaud and to a lesser degree maybe some of Familia, Mejia, Edgin, McHugh, Gorski, etc. to the majors and find out – for good – what exactly you have in Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. Maybe also find out whether Familia, Edgin, Mejia and others are longterm bullpen pieces or trade bait.
At the same time, you build up depth in the upper minors which is currently still lacking. Right now, the Mets have very little to offer in a trade. The few high-end pieces in AAA or the majors, you need yourself. Trading Harvey or Wheeler or D´Arnaud or even Niese or Ike makes next to no sense unless someone else grossly overpays.
Beyond that, the trade value at the upper minor league levels is very low.
There is nice prospect depth and upside at the lower levels – but that´s still too far away to serve as any sort of centerpiece in a trade package.
A year from now, prospects like Tapia, Montero, DeGrom or others may well have mastered the Double A level and will be worth significantly more in a trade than they would be today. Because it makes a lot more sense to trade for someone you can imagine on your major league team shortly than some kind of lottery ticket several years away.
And instead of a 100 million $ payroll (which means about 80 million $ in actual payouts as of today), you have a 50 to 55 million $ payroll in 2014 (which means about 60 million in actual payouts as of today).
cause your 2014 starting point is pretty much the same place 2013 started at only without the Cy Young Pitcher to trade to get kids and the fact that everyone signed to the roster this year NOT named Wright will have to be replaced again on top of the OF we didn’t fix this year while there were plenty of OFs to be had in a year where even FEWER OFers will be available!
We kicked the can and will be right back where we started this offseason without the distraction of resigning Wright and trading Dickey.
Perhaps we will be discussing getting two prospects for 4 years from now for Davis and Niese instead….
And the Spinning Wheel Turns…..
Yet isn’t that kinda assuming that the talent that you currently have and the talent brought in never develop into prime-time players?
Is it any more likely than them declining?
Harvey did great….Will he do that for an entire season?
Flip a coin!
What your not thinking about is IF THEY DO….You just wasted a year of what they can do!
Thats one less year you have to win something that with thier improvement and a little help might have made for a good season and you would have TWO good years instead of just the possibility of one!
Thats what happens when you WAIT for something to happen before you MAKE something happen…
Of course it could go either way. It could go either way if you sign FA too. That’s not the point. What I am saying is that you are assuming that the current players do not reach their potential and not need replacements to start with.
You keep forgng hat phrase you love to use so often….
SAMPLE SIZE!
An FA has a decent one to judge what you will get….
The Kids your hoiping to improve to offset a missing OF and loss of a Cy Young Pitcher do not….
SO the SAFER bet is the FA!
Unless of course your GM is Sandy Alderson and he signs from the $#!^pile!
Hi TRS,
What it means is that one then waits until he or she is convinced the core we have been counting on is coming through as expected. If they don’t “graduate” as expected, that means we replace it with another core and wait a few more years?
Well sure if your core doesn’t perform you have to start over again. Haven’t we already been there even when we were spending money?
And how many teams do you notice starting over again if the core of kids don’t work out that aren’t in places like Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego and – up to this season – Oakland? How many others do you see trying a different approach, a combination of things?
Try This….
Name your CORE….
Tell me years you have left of it to build the team that helps it be a winner…..
Before thier Arb Numbers and FA makes them expensive and no longer cheap and affordable….
Niese, Davis, Murphy, Gee, Harvey and Tejada?
With Wheeler and d’Arnaud soon added?
If thats not enough core to go shopping what IS enough?
And if they do all you think they might, how WASTED will it be because you waited till they had succeeded before you put that success towards a playoff run and got the players it needed to pay off?
Hi Metsie,
Thought you would be interested in the explanation to that CORE question by my friend who doesn’t see things in the same light you, I and others do. His rationale:
“You don’t rebuild in a flurry. YES, they are putting together what they
think will be a nucleus. NO, that nucleus is not developed enough for them to
reasonably expect to compete. There are links in the chain. Harvey and Wheeler
and Niese can turn into Isringhausen (the Met version), Pulsipher, and Wilson.
They can also turn into Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner. Or any point in between.
They don’t know what they have yet, and therefore, they don’t know what they
will need. Teams that are REALLY ready to compete KNOW what they need to
compete.”
It is all about the future…. and the future…. and the future….
That’s why I have said 2014 all along. They will have the money and the kids should be ready.
Dude name the kid that will be ready to play in 2014 that won’t play in 2013….
Wheeler and d’Arnaud are both coming up once the clock start is safe and ammenable….
So who is coming in 2014 that won’t be here this year?
And which one plays the Outfield?
Well aside from a sledgehammer to get through a thick skull you don’t really need a time machine to know we need OF!
Hi DrD,
My point – there is no complete plan. Just get the prospects and hope.
The team is not ready to start putting the pieces of the puzzle together now? Won’t have the selection next year to chose from. And if Sandy is honest about keeping the payroll down, he only has 2014 and 2015 from which there is extra money – in 2016 with the players we have under contract it is projected to go back up to within $4 million of what we have now. Free agents in 2015 that are availabe and a good mix – are they going to sign a one year deal that would put us right back in the same position? Depending upon the farm system to produce all the talent we need?
It’s very risky to take that approach with more than 90 percent of all prospects never even making it to the big show.
It’s economics first, competitive integrity second – unless the financial picture changes to which we can proceed to increase spending again.
Ok, here´s the plan in short words:
Phase 1:
Regain full control of the payroll and get it re-set so you can start adding once you´re there + add high-end young talent / top prospects via trades or the draft + (large market specialty: try to remain competitive at the same time, smearing some lipstick on a pig instead of holding a fire sale)
Phase 2:
Try to establish a mostly young nucleus that you can control for several years at modest cost. Graduate more young talent towards the upper levels of your farm system so they can serve as trade bait or further replenishments.
Phase 3:
Start adding shorter term pieces that may take you to the next level via trades of prospects and or free agent signings.
Phase 4:
Keep your core and gradually increase payroll (in line with rising revenue, so you don´t feel a negative effect) as your team, gravitates towards its peak.
Right now, the Mets are almost finished with phase 1 and are about to enter phase 2 in 2013.
Hopefully phase 3 will start in 2014 and then reach phase 4 by 2015 or 2016.
If you do it well, this can lead to longterm and sustained winning in a large market.
At some point in time though you have to start trading away prospects or even young major leaguers. However, that happens once you see the makings of a longterm nucleus on your roster, more or less established in the majors.
Look at the Nationals. They didn´t trade any prospects until the time was right.
After finishing .500 in 2011 and knowing that they were getting Strasburg back for 2012, they packaged Milone, Norris, Peacock and Cole to get Gio Gonzalez who helped turn their rotation into a major asset and bumped up their win total by 17. This winter they traded Alex Meyer for Denard Span. And with the exception of Cole (who was promptly re-acquired by the Nats) each of those prospects was pretty close to the majors.
The Mets – right now – don´t have any upper level prospects that they can both afford to trade AND that have significant trade value to get you more than complementary pieces that you already have. Trades like Jefrey Marte for Collin Cowgill – fine.
But you can´t get a Justin Upton – unless you sabotage your plan and trade Harvey or Wheeler. The Nats didn´t have to trade Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman or Harper to get Gio Gonzalez. The Braves didn´t have to trade Heyward, Freeman, Medlen or even Teheran to trade for Justin Upton.
Again, waiting sucks and losing while waiting sucks even more. But the only way this is going to work is by showing patience, I´m afraid.
Of course, if you feel that the Mets should wait on Brandon Nimmo, Vincente Lupo and Gilbert Gomez to fix the outfield, I understand that such a plan doesn´t sound convincing as – even in a best case scenario – we´re looking at 2016 at the very earliest.
Dooby… have to ask….
Knowing we lost 23 MIl last year and will have less Attendance this year and last due to the loss of Dickey’s draw…
How much do you think we will have to spend next year where you seem to think the Finances will be in order and stable and Payroll Flexability returns?
Because as I calculate the losses from last year, The money coming off the books from Bay and Santana, The increases in pay to Wright and Niese plus Arb players….
Even if they get the same exact attendance as last year, they MIGHT have 9 Million to spend to fix this team and make it better….
9 Mil to BUY and OF, a replacement for Santana, Bullpen etc….
Hi Just and TJ,
Decided to go into lengthy detail so to save you guys the trouble:)
Well,
Found one guy who seems to have changed his opinion over the years.
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/null/2010/10/694009/sandy-alderson-overachieving-baseball-architect-underachieving-baseball-
Next year there will be no Santana, no Bay, no Francisco, no Buck. That’s $60 million off the books. Only David Wright will make more than $7 million next year and only he and Niese have multi-year contracts. Money is not an object next year so any excuses about ownership or the prior regime come to a stop. Until then we will have to wait and see.
Yes it is…You did the addition but neglected the subtraction…
Wright gets a 9 Mil raise
Niese gets a 2 Mil raise
If they draw as many people as they did last year, since the payroll is virtually the same they will lose 23 Mil again. More if Attendance declines due to the loss of Dickey and maybe more if they start off poorly and are already out of the competition before the ASG.
Thats 34 Mil of your 60 Mil right there….
And truth is your 60 Mil number is all wrong…
Santana saves you 19.5 MIl (his 25 Mil is offset by his 5.5 Mil Buyout)
Bay Deferred 8 Mil to next year which means a 10 Mil Savings at best.
Buck is 6 Mil
Francisco is 6 Mil
So they actually just on player contracts alone clear about 41 Mil of Payroll when all is said and done….
Not 60 Mil….
40Mil in savings minus 34 Mil leaves you how much to buy an OF a BP and whatever else you think your going to get next year?
Sorry but the only hope is that something increases Attendance to the point that they lose less than 23 Mil this year which is highly unlikely given the lack of movement in the offseason and the loss of Dickey as an Attraction to go see….
Are we talking about ” payroll” and official losses on the books or ” cash flow” and remaining ” liquid” to meet payments that are due ?
As of today, the projected 2014 payroll is somewhere in the 50 to 55 million $ range – assuming every player under contract is kept and arb. is offered.
The 2012 payroll was about 95 million $, the 2013 payroll – for now is roughly 100 million $, maybe a tad higher if Marcum reaches his incentives.
So, there certainly is plenty of payroll space to work with – even if you only plan to spend 90 million in 2014, i.e. less than in over 10 years, you can add 35 million in commitments on the 2013 books. That should be enough to add an impact outfielder, a solid outfielder, a veteran reliever and a veteran SP – be it via free agency or trade(s).
If the concern is “cash flow”, that – for now – drops from the 80 million or so range in 2013 to the 60 million or so range in 2014. The ownership group just added over 150 milllion or so in their re- financing. So, ” meeting payroll” should not be a problem – regardless of whether the Mets are profitable or not. Let alone other enteties like SNY which almost certainly are.
Doobie we are talking about how much PROFIT they will have to spend on Improvements…
You 55Mil number is wrong it doesn’t count options which inflate the Est Payroll to 80.9 Mil
So AT BEST with no losses in attendance or money you have 15 Mil to spend…
Include those and they are in no better position to spend without taking a risk than they are right now!
Only 9-12 Mil of financial improvement from today to go Buy the OF the Pen and whatever else it is you think is going to make 2014 any better than 2013 is going to be….
And if they lose MORE attendance from last year even LESS than that 9-12 Mil….
I did the math for you above as to whose Salary and how much is actually freed up….
I didn’t even attempt to estimate what the raises would be for the Arb players…
So all this money you think is coming off the books to spend isn’t really coming off the books unless the book your talking about is how much the Wilpons need to borrow to pay the Book with the bills in it.
Sandy Alderson has explicitly stated that the options count against the 2013 payroll.
While he does always leave a little backdoor open, that clip was pretty obvious.
Again, including Wright, Niese and every of the arb. guys, I count a sum of 50 to 55 million in 2014 with Santana – Bay – Marcum – FF – Buck all gone from the payroll (not necessarily from the cash flow). But will write the projected roster with estimated salaries down later and see what happens again. And even if it´s 60 due to higher arb. than expected, not sure how you get to 80+ million (or has Michael Bourn already signed ?)….
He can count them in the year 4000 it really doesn’t matter he has to pay them out of revenues he will make this year….
So no matter what you want to claim is his projected payroll for 2014 it really won’t matter when he is done paying the Bills he will have less than 12M to spend and maybe as little as 6M once the Rb Raises are factored in and add to that any decline in Sttendance this year and there will be NO MONEY to buy anything…
All the could do is take the risk of signing someone they may not be able to pay for which about 2 Hours ago you said was not THE PLAN….
That Payroll would only be raised as REVENUE and PERFORMANCE warrants it….
You can take debts owed in 2014 and count them in 2013 if you want but the money still has to be there in the revenue they have made from 2013….
And as I showed you that amounts to roughly 6-12 Mil to spend and I’m being generous there!
SO who are you buying to fill the OF BP and anything else you think your going to buy?
Gonna take a loan and hope revenue pays the bills?
If they lose 23 Mil this year do they spend anyway? Or do they wait till 2015 and kick the can down the road one year at a time every year until the end of time?
SP:
Niese 5
Harvey 0.5
Wheeler 0.5
Gee 1.5
McHugh / Mejia / TB 0.5 *
RP:
Parnell 3
Familia 0.5
Edgin 0.5
Burke 0.5
Carson / Gorski 0.5
Germen / El.Ramirez 0.5
Hefner 0.5
C: D´Arnaud 0.5
1b: Davis 5
2b: Murphy 5
SS: Tejada 2
3b: Wright 20
RF: Baxter / Brown / TBA 0.5*
CF: Nieuwenhuis / Den Dekker / TBA 0.5
LF: Duda / TBA 1.5*
Bench:
Centeno / Recker 0.5
Valdespin / Lutz / Flores 0.5
Turner 1
Cowgill / Lagares 0.5
Total salary: 51.5, add a few callups or higher than expected arb. results and maybe you get to 55 million. And in this case, payroll equals cash payout for now. You may add the 7.5 million deferred by Jason Bay towards the cash flow, so we get to 62.5. Maybe add a little more owed to Bonilla or Beltran and you get to about 65 million.
That should leave about 30+ million to spend on upgrading the two outfield spots, maybe add a more experienced SP and maybe add a more proven reliever. And considering that ownership just received a 150+ million cash infusion, National TV money is on the rise and SNY is making profits as well, I don´t see why a 95 million payout (85 million payroll) is supposed to be any sort of an issue in 2014…
Please explain how that only leaves 6 to 10 million $ ?
Looking at the names you listed one thing from this is the only 2 players with guaranteed contracts in 2014 are David Wright and Jon Niese. Wright is due $20M ($17.5M if you subtract the deferred) and Niese is due $5M. Johan Santana’s buyout will be included in this years payroll and his deferred payments are not due to begin till 2015. Jason Bay is reported to have $15M deferred over this year and next so if you split that he should be due $7.5M in 2014. Among those three players that is $32.5M or $30M if you don’t include Wright’s deferred monies due in 2014.
Actually that should read “Jason Bay is reported to have $15M deferred over next year and the year after”
Here is the expected savings I can find…
Santana saves you 19.5 MIl (his 25 Mil is offset by his 5.5 Mil Buyout)
Bay Deferred 8 Mil to next year which means a 10 Mil Savings at best.
Buck is 6 Mil
Francisco is 6 Mil
Those are the ONLY savings in the Payroll that I can find…
(And I even OVER estimated the savings on Bay…)
If they don’t lose money at the gate (which would be like just another Payroll added when you come right down to it if they do)
Minus the raises the remaining team is due to get from the savings, Tally in any losses in revenue whatever is left is all we have to spend in FA next year unless the Wilpons say go get someone to play Revenue be damned!
And if thats the case they should have just done that this year.
So based on your guess NJ, as I know you have researched this extensively, how much available cash do you expect the Mets to be able use assuming 100M payroll for 2014?
TRS, that is dependent on a lot of variables but if you were to try and speculate and say that the players most likely expected to be a part of the 2014 Mets along with Wright and Niese who I already mentioned are the following,
Matt Harvey
Zack Wheeler
Dillon Gee
Bobby Parnell
Josh Edgin
Ike Davis
Daniel Murphy
Ruben Tejada
Travis d’Arnaud
Lucas Duda
Then try to project what those players may be due to make in 2014 and add that to what i said earlier the either $32.5M or $30M if you don’t include Wright’s deferred monies due in 2014 and you will get a better estimate of at least a starting point of what they can be expected to have committed with the understanding that this is but 12 players of a 25 man roster.
SO you think attendance is going up and they will make a profit and not lose 23 Mil?
And you keep adding up salaries of the guys who will be here but none of the money they will have to PAY to the players from 2013 with 2013 money!
Where is this money coming from if attendance doesn’t increase?
If ownership loses 23 million with the Mets in 2012 with a 95 million $ payroll and gains 20 million or so from SNY – a very Mets related entety, the actual ” loss ” is only 3 milllion.
In 2013, the likely decrease in attendance should be made up by the effects of hosting the All Star Game. So with an official payroll of 100 million $ or so ( including the Santana buyout that’s due in Nov 2013 and thus on the 2013 books according to Alderson) and an actual payout of barely 80 million with deferred payments, the estimated ” loss” for the Mets 2013 operations figures to be below 10 million in cash flow. With SNY gains included that should give ownership 10 million $ in positive cash flow overall.
Add 150+ million from their restructured SNY financing and the Wilpons should finally be fully liquid again.
Then for 2014, with a projected payroll in the 50 to 60 million $ range on players for now, the new National TV deal kicks in and brings over 10 million $ in extra revenue for each franchise. So, if 75 million used to be the ” break even ” point for the Mets with low attendance, it’ll bump to 85+ with that deal. If you include SNY gains, that gives you a 105 million break-even overall ( or payroll ceiling).
With a mediocre team, i.e.
If the team gets better again, attendance and revenue will rise again. For SNY too, btw. So where 105 may be the Mets break even + SNY gain payroll limit for 2014 (allowing investing 40+ million next winter), it will rise exponentially again with a better product on the field. So, by 2016, a 130+ million payroll shouldn’t be a problem if the team is any good.
That’s a pretty sound plan imho financially. Basically, it appears the Meta are over the financial hill and can start focusing purely on talent again from 2014 on….
Oh so the are getting 20 Mil from SNY this year they didn’t get LAST year when they lost 23 Million?
Why would that be Dooby?
Your just looking for ANY number you can add and ignoring any BILL that is due to try and find the numbers you WANT there to be to spend but really don’t exist….
You want to fool yourself to feel better go right ahead but your numbers are WRONG, BIASED, and as much FANTASY as your 2014 Playoff run!
That USED to be 2013 at one point when you thought all that money you saved on Beltran and K-Rod was going to be spent….
And you keep ignoring the fact that the 23 Mil is the LOW LOSS number that assumes attendance is EXACTLY THE SAME as last year when we all know it won’t be with our OF and loss of our Biggest draw last year RA DICKEY!
It’s a nice dream you have there DOoby but please wake up and smell the coffee!
Hi DrD.,
But that also still does not take into account the annual amount of the re-financing they will have to pay, along with the money owed in the Civil Suit and Poland Spring for the water coolers.
Sorry Metsie, but you can’t just view the Mets in an isolated way. SNY is a ” sister” entety – so if you pay below market TV money to the Mets entety, you make a higher profit with SNY. Which is why the net loss for the Mets in 2011 wasn’t 70 million but ” merely” 50 million if you add SNY gains to the overall cash flow in the ownership group.Still bad when you’re the defendant in a 1 billion $ lawsuit, your businesses are highly leveraged and your bread and butter business, real estate, is in an economy crisis. Let alone losing 500+ million from your bank accont with Uncle Bernie a couple of years ago.
While there are valid questions regarding some Baseball decisions of this current front office, the business side of the plan is quite sound and logical. If they are right about Wheeler & D ‘ Arnaud, this has a lot of upside, though.
Fact check:
Projected 2014 Mets payroll as of today: 55 million $
Additional National TV money from 2014 on: 10+ million $ extra
Ownership just received 150+ million $ in fresh money without higher monthly rates
SNY is a profitable entety
=> money will not be an issue from 2014 on
HI DrD.,
But legally, SNY is considered a separate holding under Sterling Equitites, isn’t it?
Oh, I agree with you that doesn’t mean a thing. The Wilpons could easily afford to let the Mets lose money each year because in the overall scheme of things there is no SNY without the Mets and it is the METS that account for SNY’s revenue (though maybe not as much as “beer money” as several allude to). SNY is where the big money comes in. Both are dependent upon the other. .
But then, why did they allow the Mets situation to come down to what it is today by not using some the revenue brought in from SNY so they did not need to get those two loans just to meet the end of the month operating expenses? Their share of the profits is their own to use any way they see fit.
I can only guess that there is something tied in with SNY (and don’t ask me what) which they feel is more important to their own financial interests than using it to help relieve the Mets situation, which we can see is losing it’s market value as well as yearly losses. The Mets franchise has turned off so many fans as reflected in the empty seats each season. They know that for as many fans as there are who believe that the team needed re-building and so Sandy has taken the right steps to do so, there are more who see it in the negative light others and I have expressed. Certainley, they do not want to have an image that they hired a small-market general manager who thinks in terms of the ledger book as so many do.
So why, with SNY, have they let it come to this. Wouldn’t it be in their best interests not to?
Both of you seem to think that 20 Million is coming from SNY this year that did NOT in 2012?
Show us WHY SNY would pay 20 Mil more this year to offset the 23 Mil Loss number than it did last year when they lost 23 Mil…
Knock yourselves out…
Your just skampering to find money to convince yourself they will have money to spend….
Not including bonus and Options, Add some from SNY, Hell why not add they will win the lottery too?
They are not getting any MORE money this year from SNY than they got LAST YEAR….And last year they lost 23 Mil….
SNY didn’t make any money in 2012, you’re saying,Metsie? Or didn’t use their gains to cover some of the Mets losses ?
Fact is, those two enteties are very dependant on each other. The better the Mets are, the more money SNY receives. Still, due to the structuring of the TV deal, SNY gets the Mets for a bargain price. Less than half of what other teams get.
It doesn’t mean it’s enough when the Mets field a 140 + million $ payroll and a sub .500 team. But certainly enough with a 90 million $ payroll and a sub .500 team.
And certainly enough with an outlook at 2014 with a 60 million payroll – for now – and an additional 10 million in NATIONAL TV DEAL money. Plus SNY gains, let alone an ownership group that just received 150+ million in extra cash with their recent restructuring of loans at lower interest.
While a more potent ownership group would be nice, this one has plenty of funds available by now & going forward.
YepSNY made money..None of it went to the Mets except for the shares of the team SNY bought…With Time Warner and Comcast’s permission.
That and the rights fee…
You are AVOIDING the point!
SNY is not going to give them 20 MIl more than they gave them last year!
First off ity’s Illegal
Second TIme Warner won’t allow the Wilpons to take Time Warner Profit for thier team without Time Warner and Comcats’ permission
and Lastly PROVE THEY CAN< WILL OR EVER DID!
Show me some proof SNY just gave the Mets 20 Million for NOTHING!
Or intend to give 20 Mil MORE than they gave them last year…
This time next year you will be looking for new excuses as to why they won't be spending…
How are the LA Dodgers surviving with a 200+ million $ payroll ? They certainly don’t have enough revenue for that. They have an ownership group that mostly cares about fielding a strong team and improving the value of their franchise. So they use some of their private cash and put it into the team.
The Mets problem from 2010 through 2012 was an ownership group that didn’t have the money / liquid assets to support a franchise that was losing money. Lots of money, that is.
Now, besides downsizing the payroll to a level where operating losses figure to be avoided, the ownership group now has a bunch of money to use for supporting the franchise. And SNY gains are one part of that money. Besides 150+ million of new loans they ‘ re receiving – with the ” montly rate” so to speak remaining the same as before thanks to lower interest rates.
So, the excuse ” there’s no money” which was valid over the past couple of years is gone now.
‘ So they use some of their private cash and put it into the team.’
‘The Mets problem from 2010 through 2012 was an ownership group that didn’t have the money / liquid assets to support a franchise that was losing money.’
This.
I’ve been saying all along the Wilpons are either unable or unwilling to invest in their team these past few years. IMO, it was unable and it was quite evident with all that went on with Madoff, the billion dollar lawsuit, the down revenues, etc.
At point I believed the more they lowered the debt on the team, the more profit they would make if they had to sell. I’m still not convinced this isn’t still an option on the table. Might be exactly what Jeff is thinking when/if the team is passed to him. Although I’m not sure how that all works with their minority investors.
You know the Dodgers are going to survive before they have had to pay even a single guy his share of the 200 Mil your projecting?
Are they paying ALL of it or just the part Boston isn’t?
And are they borrowing money from some other business of thiers or merely using the money they got from selling BROADCAST rights to pay the bill short term until they can weed out some of the more expensive players they don’t intend to keep?
“been saying all along the Wilpons are either unable or unwilling to invest in their team ”
Yet today we heard Alderson say they are NOT the reason we didn’t spend….
So WHY didn’t we spend this year?
There are two reasons they didn´t spend this winter:
# 1 2013 is the final year with pretty significant obligations from the past on the books. Combine an official payroll of slightly above 100 million $ (actual payouts: probably closer to 80 million) with a team that projects to finish below .500 and odds are, you are bound to lose money. Would adding another 15 to 20 million $, say into Michael Bourn and Jose Valverde for example change the Mets playoffs odds significantly ? I doubt it, though each would be a nice addition regardless, for sure.
# 2 It doesn´t make sense to invest in high-end furniture when the house your´re building isn´t even finished yet. The house being a hopefully strong enough core group of players such as Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Travis D´Arnaud to complement David Wright, Jon Niese and hopefully Ike Davis (with a consistent full year). A year from now, that should be in place, so you can start adding pieces.
This winter, you´d only want to target bargains and not chase the overheated market on talent that figures to regress beyond 2013.
“#1-Would adding another 15 to 20 million $, say into Michael Bourn and Jose Valverde for example change the Mets playoffs odds significantly ?”
Well considering that as it stands, they are spending at a maximum, 69 million dollars….another 15 million would give them an outrageous 84 million dollar payroll….
I think a Bourn and a Valverde ( or really another veteran closer, im not a valverde fan ) would help the CORE actually perform better. these elements dont exist in isolated vacuums, there is an eco-system that produces results. adding a good defensive CF, who is also a leadoff hitter, has a good spiral effect on the team offensively and defensively as well as the pitching staff. this will help your chances in 2014
# 2 It doesn´t make sense to invest in high-end furniture when the house your´re building isn´t even finished yet.
And yet they did just that with signing David Wright to a 138 mil contract.
I say there is no sense in investing in David Wright to that much money if you are going to not have an eco-system that cultivates talent. We can argue all day over whether he is worth it or not. I think its a pretty clear argument that if you invest in him, u dont stop there or you further risk devaluing the investment…even worse, the CORE is negatively affected as well.
IMO – this is where having a supreme coaching staff ( which we dont have ) is important.
How Sandy keeps both Ray Ramirez ( after lord knows how many goof-ups ) and Dan Warthen ( after lord knows how many goof-ups ) is beyond me….
“#1-Would adding another 15 to 20 million $, say into Michael Bourn and Jose Valverde for example change the Mets playoffs odds significantly ?”
Yes instead of 20-1 they might move to 10-1 but thats not what you should be looking at….
Adding that much would have a much GREATER impact on the Attendance that if it starts to go up will pay for even BETTER signings in those years you think the Playoffs ARE wrth going for and within reach.
The way your thinking is saying that if your not going to get into the playoffs don’t sign anyone…
And all that does is ensure all the players you THINK can get you there that are already here get a year older and more expensive and you just pushed whatever year you think you WILL get there back another year!
You have to CONSTANTLY improve your team….Even in years you think it will not result in a playoff!
Do that and you won’t have the TOO FAR AWAY excuse to say don’t spend forever….
But the way your thinking you NEVERget to the point that spending is worth doing which means your just the Pirates and Oakland…
A few teases of season that looks like a success and then no glory back to cutting and rebuilding hoping it works in the next cycle.
Hi Old School,
I hope I don’t have to again go looking for that projection from baseball reference which estimates that the team with the players they will still have under contract and replacing those with minimum wage players that the payroll will again shoot up to $81 million – just $4 million less than now.
They have that windfall for two years – they are not going to get players who can stick around with productive seasons to build around the core – for just two seasons. And if they do get older ones who have maybe two seasons left, unless they have kids in the minors good enough to fill in for them, we still have holes in the outfield and the bullpen all over again.
That’s the math of it. Don’t see the financial picture getting brighter in 2016 that they have the flexibility to go to a payroll of $25 million more ($105 million) which is what it would need in order to retan the players they sign in 2014 with the money then available.
The idea is to let the payroll rise with performance and revenue. And also to create options.
An 80 to 90 million payroll in 2014 doesn’t mean your cap is still 100 million in 2016.
If the 2015 team wins, you can easily justify a bump to 125 million or more by 2016.
Of course a question is whether you want to pay Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and Bobby Parnell a combined 30+ million in 2016 – or you just let them go and replace them with more cost efficient players.
That’s where farm depth becomes so important. Both as trade bait and internal replenishments.
This very much remains a ” large market” team, capable of large market payroll, structurally. It’s just that this money should mostly be paid in the present for present performance than in the present or future for past performance…
Well how can performance get better if you keep signing AAAA players that hurt your prospects whose clock is running?
Hi DrD.,
I don’t see being able to separate the expenditures. They all go to the bottom line of total expenses versus available income. If one feels that the business model Sandy created helps allow the Mets to spend more on the roster, I can understand that thinking, though it depends on what amount Sandy put down for the Wilpons to consider. But has the team turned the corner due to downsizing that has to be adhered to in which they can then start to put more back into the product?
Does the sum of the whole – the roster, the non-baseball operations, paying off the re-financed loans, making up for the losses encumbered the past two seasons, having to begin paying the $162 million civil suit settlement (even if they eventually get most of it back in the future allow for that additional savings in payroll to be reinvested – just like we were told it would be with Jose? LOL Also, as mentioned before, one has to look beyond 2014 to 2016 when the projected payroll – with raises the players under contract now accounted for – that payroll goes back up to around $81 million. Right now Sandy has it at about $86 million.
Sandy does not have to pay back those loans this year – that was the reason for the entire re-financing. That has to be put into the budget next year. An added expense.
Getting back to the civil suit, Piccard’s settlement might have due to him thinking the jury would be against him, yes. But we also know all know that while lawyers can spin things to a jury or to the public it is different when putting their name down on a legal affidavit regarding the reason for the settlement. Piccard said it was because after a review of the books, he concluded that there was no more money to get out of the Wilpons. How much leeway does he have in spinning the truth a bit under a sworn document filed in civil court if that reason was mostly BS?
Joey — here’s the problem with your interpretation of why Picard settled …
1) Picard said in his affidavit that he didn’t examine the Mets’ documents until AFTER the settlement — “Based upon financial information provided by Defendants since the [agreement], and on the advice of my counsel, we have become satisfied that Defendants’ cash flow and lender covenants would not have enabled me to recover more for the BLMIS customer fund in the forseeable future by litigating to the point of judgment.”
So, apparently the finances of the Wilpons were not a driving force for the settlement itself since he didn’t have the numbers until afterwards. (The link is for the affidavit, not for Megdal’s spin.)
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2012/08/6460446/how-will-mets-owners-fare-without-help-league
2) Picard feared upcoming legislation that would strip his powers, said Cuomo — **Asked why Picard would settle with the Mets owners, Cuomo said bills have been introduced in Congress, partly inspired by the Mets case, that might “strip” the trustee of some of his current powers.**
3) Picard had a weak case and feared he would lose — **“Picard had to be concerned about whether he could secure a favorable verdict from a jury,” said Michael Clark, a former federal prosecutor at Duane Morris LLP in Houston who has tried about 100 cases. A “bad result” might have emboldened defendants in other clawback cases to resist settling, he said.**
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/mets-owners-to-settle-madoff-trustee-case-for-162-million-1-.html
4) Remember, even Rakoff used the word “skeptical” to describe how he viewed Picard’s case.
5) Finally, I think Picard feared the impact Sandy Koufax, testifying for the Wilpons, would have on a NY jury.
For all these reasons, I think Picard settled because the deck was stacked against him. It had little to do with the Wilpons’ finances. If Picard had gotten a judgment, he could have forced the Wilpons to sell assets — such as SNY — in order to collect. Cash flow is of little concern to plaintiffs in a civil suit.
Hi Metro,
It wasn’t an interpretation on my part – it was a question so not to contend Picard’s words were actually valid but to consider it in lieu of it exposing something about the Met’s financial plight. That’s why I asked if one could spin things like he did – at least with the public and how it was reported by the media.
Question – and only a question – but since he does state that he reviewed the books after the settlement and before the affidavit itself, could the agreed upon amount been reached pending upon the “formal” review of the books agreed to by both parties to verify the information? Why would a lawyer then swear the books showed that fact to be true if that was not what he concluded?
Joey — I’m having problems understanding your comment. What do you mean by: “it was a question so not to contend Picard’s words were actually valid but to consider it in lieu of it exposing something about the Met’s financial plight”
I also don’t understand this question: “Why would a lawyer then swear the books showed that fact to be true if that was not what he concluded?”
But let me tell you what I think happened based on the affidavit — He looked at the Mets financial numbers after the settlement and thought he could not have recovered more in terms of CASH in the “foreseeable future.” This is spin, Joey. A plaintiff in a civil suit has no concern whatsoever of the cash flow situation of the defendant. All he cares about are assets which can be sold to cover any judgment. If the Wilpons lost, they could have sold the team and SNY and easily made that $1 billion.
The spin in the affidavit by Picard was to save face. Are they really going to say in the document that they settled because they had a weak case and thought they would lose? LOL. Never. They can’t say that because it would undermine the reason for the whole case and paint them as frivolous litigators.
Hi Metro
Because I was talking about how bad the financial situation was, I raised the issue of why Piccard settled on that figure as another example of how severe it really could be – but at the same time I wanted to cover my tracks and not make it seem as if I was taking Piccard at his word and thus spoke about it as a possibility and not as fact so to let others know this particular point on my part was speculation and I was not using it as the basis to come to my conclusion.
Joey — So are you saying you were just trying to make a point that the Mets had severe cash flow issues in early 2012? Is anyone really disputing that? If they are, I am sorry I jumped into the discussion in the middle and missed that part.
But as for the cash flow issues being the reason Picard settled for such a low amount (relative to his initial demands) that doesn’t make sense, because he still hasn’t gotten a cent out of the Wilpons yet. Right? The reason he stated in his affidavit would only make sense if he had not agreed to a seriously delayed payment schedule. Because why would it matter if the Mets pay Picard 170 million OR 400 million 5 years from the date of the settlement? It is irrelevant to the cash flow situation at the beginning of 2012. Right?
Hi Metro,
Yup, that was all.
Not having faith in Piccard (after all, he is no Jon Luc) is why I mentioned it as another possible indication but didn’t want it to appear I was using it to further back-up my point about how bad the fiscal situation was (thus my own personal disclaimer LOL).
As far as the cash flow and the settled amount, I added that as a future expense that the Wilpons have to contend with, along with paying off their re-financed loans. Was not talking in terms of current cash flow.
See what you miss when coming in at the middle?
Joey — Before I first replied, I actually looked for a previous post where you referenced the settlement with another poster, but I didn’t see one! Can you point it out?
At any rate, just to get back to the cash flow issue, that is what Picard gave as his reason in the affidavit. But since the payments were deferred for 4-5 years, it made no sense since payment amounts 4-5 years down the road have no relevancy to cash flow at the time of the settlement in March of 2012. But it sounded good to him and gave him cover.
Hi Metro,
For your reading pleasure.
The last paragraph is where to I allude to Piccard’s reasoning as adding fuel to the fire about the bad financial state of affairs for the Mets. Notice, I was also asking how much leeway as a laywer he would have at spin if his ascertion was mostly BS. Though not alluded to in this particular post, I was following up on earlier points about not the 2013 but down the road as far as the loans, the civil suit and the water bill will then affect it.
.
“Joey D. January 29, 2013 at 9:56 pm .
Hi DrD.,
I don’t see being able to separate the expenditures. They all go to the bottom line of total expenses versus available income. If one feels that the business model Sandy created helps allow the Mets to spend more on the roster, I can understand that thinking, though it depends on what amount Sandy put down for the Wilpons to consider. But has the team turned the corner due to downsizing that has to be adhered to in which they can then start to put more back into the product?
Does the sum of the whole – the roster, the non-baseball operations, paying off the re-financed loans, making up for the losses encumbered the past two seasons, having to begin paying the $162 million civil suit settlement (even if they eventually get most of it back in the future allow for that additional savings in payroll to be reinvested – just like we were told it would be with Jose? LOL Also, as mentioned before, one has to look beyond 2014 to 2016 when the projected payroll – with raises the players under contract now accounted for – that payroll goes back up to around $81 million. Right now Sandy has it at about $86 million.
Sandy does not have to pay back those loans this year – that was the reason for the entire re-financing. That has to be put into the budget next year. An added expense.
Getting back to the civil suit, Piccard’s settlement might have due to him thinking the jury would be against him, yes. But we also know all know that while lawyers can spin things to a jury or to the public it is different when putting their name down on a legal affidavit regarding the reason for the settlement. Piccard said it was because after a review of the books, he concluded that there was no more money to get out of the Wilpons. How much leeway does he have in spinning the truth a bit under a sworn document filed in civil court if that reason was mostly BS?”
Joey, yes I saw that post. But it said:
“Getting back to the civil suit, Piccard’s settlement …”
“Getting back” implies an earlier discussion about the settlement which is what I was looking for!
So I guess I didn’t come on in the middle. I just didn’t understand what you were saying!
“
Hi Metro,
LOL,
Yup, “getting back” meant I was picking up again on a subject written about in paragraphs earlier, getting off the subject of the paragraph that just ended. Don’t worry, I’m the guy who also mistook the row next to the attendance figure to mean payroll or vice versa.
IOW, Joey, Picard made a determination AFTER the settlement was made based upon the financial information provided by the Wilpons. No one is saying that Picard was lying. It’s just that the determination he made doesn’t seem all that relevant to the settlement because:
1) He talks about cash. But cash is of little consequence in a civil suit. It’s assets that matter.
2) He uses the term “foreseeable future” and that isn’t even relevant either. The Wilpons could have sold the team and SNY within 1 year to satisfy the judgment.
So his affidavit was kind of hollow … I think spin to save face.
you are talking about a GM that didnt change one member of the coaching staff and still has not replaced Ray Ramirez as head trainer…despite the myriad of injuries since 2008 to our team…
Sandy has a message to the NY mets
“I’m just not that into you”
Huh? Hudgens, Mookie, Goodwin, Teufel, Bones, Oberkfell and Geren have all been hired as ML coaches by Sandy since he became Mets GM.
Oberkfell was promoted to bench coach…and dismissed after one year…
I was specifically talking about the pitching coach
why are we keeping him ?
In what language does “a GM that didnt change one member of the coaching staff” translate to “specifically talking about the pitching coach”?
The same language where “payroll rank” = “attendance rank” ?
Dr doobyy is wrong on every account and shows the simple and naive and rudinebtary failings of a baseball non fan in his earleir posts. To say the house is not yet complete demonstrates clearly your total lack of sports knowledge as every sport fan in every sport knows the house is never finished. And as for the spending when the old money is gone is also wrong. the Wilpons have obviously decided, since their free money from ponzii schemes doesn’t come any more, to fiollow the Pittsburgh example of not spending, not winning and making just enough money of of the various revenue streams to make a small profit each year. But non baseball fans like Dooby give us the same old lines that every real fan knows comes from the manure pile.
Hey Padildo! Why don’t you show us just how much baseball knowledge you have instead of stalking people without ever making a single baseball point.