18
2013
Which Prospects Will Debut In 2013?
An article by 
Wheeler is the odds-on favorite to debut in 2013, but there are plenty others to keep an eye on.
So which prospects can we expect to see debut for the Mets this season? Will we see another dazzling Harvey-esque type debut to instill some hope for the future? This is a good question and one that will be more fun to tackle than all the questions about the major league squad.
2:1 Odds
Zack Wheeler, RHP – Only a disaster of epic proportions will keep Wheeler from joining the Mets before the All Star break in 2013. His numbers will most likely be adversely affected by the rarefied air of Vegas, but ready or not, here he comes.
Travis d’Arnaud, C – The newest Met prospect, and some will argue the best, will also be on the fast track as Alderson looks to cash in some chips before the natives become too restless. He’ll be trying to come back from a long layoff after a knee injury wiped out his 2012 season. But as soon as he can show he’s healthy and has his timing back, the Mets will call his number.
5:1 Odds
Matt den Dekker, CF – He hit a brick wall after a promotion to Buffalo, and the high strikeouts are very alarming, but he will get his opportunity. One look at the outfield that Sandy built and you’ll know why. Defensively, he is MLB ready, offensively is another story, but that doesn’t matter right now.
Wilmer Flores, IF – That David Wright deal sealed his fate. They already said he will NOT play in the outfield. I think if he gets off to a nice start in Vegas where his already solid numbers will look even better, he’ll get the call. Not because he has a future with the Mets, but because they see him as trade bait.
10:1 Odds
Juan Lagares, OF - Lagares is the closet outfielder the Mets have to being major league ready, and after hearing what DePo had to say about him, I’m convinced we’ll see him debut in 2013. He has a quick bat, line drive stroke, speed and gap power. I wouldn’t be shocked if he accumulates 200 at-bats with the Mets in 2013.
Darin Gorski, LHP – Nobody can do so much with so little as Darin Gorski can, and he’s built up a large batch of support in the front office. Now that he’s on the 40-man roster, the odds are very good that we’ll see him take a stab at what will be the merry-go-round to replace Dickey in the rotation all this season.
15:1 Odds
Rafael Montero, RHP – Wait, what? Calm down everybody, if he does come up it won’t be early and probably around August when the Mets will find themselves 25 games back and looking for anybody who can come up and excite the fans. He has a live arm and one scout we spoke to last year said he’ll be a permanent fixture in 2014. It sounded like a pretty good endorsement to me.
Jack Leathersich, LHP – Another kid with a live arm and this one can bring it harder and better than Josh Edgin who is already here. Throw in the fact that he’s probably the best left-handed arm in the system, and that adds up to a likely debut in 2013. I see a big-time stud closer in his future.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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>>But as soon as he can show he’s healthy and has his timing back, the Mets will call his number.
Ah, no. The only thing keeping d’Arnaud off the opening day lineup is the fact that he needs to spend another 20 or so days in the minors to give the Mets another year of control on his initial contract. He proved he was ready last year and would have been a September call up for the Jays had he not gotten injured.
DePodesta said he will start in Triple-A in his Q&A with us. He said it was because of the long layoff and also that was the plan with Toronto who was also having him start the season in AAA for the same reason; to make sure the knee is okay and ease him back in. If he doesn’t prove that, he wont be up in 20 days or 40 days. His health and development comes first and before everything, not his super two timetable.
Joe I don’t think they’d admit his super 2 status playing a role anyway. Alderson said when they traded for him that he’s completely healthy and ready to go. IMO if he’s MLB ready then he’s MLB ready. Screw the super 2 BS and let him start the season if he shows he’s ready in the spring.
Lets say it’s the last day of spring training:
John Buck batted .176 with 0 homers and 128 K’s in 55 at-bats.
Travis d’Arnaud batted .335 with 4 home runs, 6 doubles, 12 RBI in 55 at-bats.
Lets make a bargain to hammer the front office in unison if they head north with a catching tandem of Buck and Powell/Recker.
Deal?
I’ll throw into the pot and pick that they are taking Buck.
I know they probably are. But I don’t want to make such a bold assumption for fear of being grouped with the core or the firm or whatever the heck they call it these days.
I concur. With my recent anti-SA comments I’ve been terrified that a salute may be coming my way.
Salty, with your recent jumping of the bandwagon to see the light and realize how awful this FO is, the CORE salute you….. Joe D is part of the Firm with a hint of CORE
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Take it back, please God NOOOO what have I done!
come home salty. come home.
Too Late…Once your in the Core your rotten to it!
If that’s the case then I’ll absolutely hammer them. I didn’t hear the entire interview with Fatcesa yesterday but didn’t he say that d’Arnaud can make the team out of spring training if he had a big spring?
He definitely did say something like that. I think Amazin Avenue has the complete interview fully transcribed. They are always good with things like that.
We keep tqalking about super two status but Sandy said already he wanted to get d’Arnaud work after coming off the injury to get back into game shape and learn some of the younger pitchers….
Sure his super two status may be added to that as an excuse but lets not forget we did trade for a guy who has been hurt and unable to finish a season two years running and maybe thats a bigger concern regarding starting off the season than what year he might be eligible for Arbitration….
Cause he still has to bo GOOD and stay healthy to get the type of money to worry about such things.
What about Centeno ?
There you go again taking FO speak for truth.
Just kidding but I don’t believe for a second that d’Arnaud’s timetable isn’t being controlled by his super two status. It would be FO malpractice to give that away for a handful of games in what is not expected to be a championship year.
They already have Ike Davis as a Super Two, and Matt Harvey will be Super Two after 2014 as well. I get what you are saying, but some teams do make decisions based on the needs of the team or winning regardless of the S2 Effect.
harvey can be a super 2 even though he did not come up until the very end of July? I thought that was a mid-may or so cut off?
Very true. And some teams are in rebuilding mode for years that follow after 2013 even if Mets fans don’t want to hear it and get infuriated when the FO won’t say what is obvious because they also have a responsibility to try and fill the stadium this season.
We’ll see.
You would think Met fans would rather have player with us for an extra year if possible and not go to free agency a year earlier if he is good. So what if he sharpens in minor and extra 20 days. As a GM, I would do it also. As I remember, Ike Davis was sent to minors and came up later. How many of this years MLBs rookie crop will do the same?
And you would think guys who think having control of good players is important would put as much emphasis on putting together the BEST TEAM POSSIBLE for the players whose clock has already started and could win if we concerned ourselves more with WINNING than we do with CLOCKS!
Everyone in never satisfied.
Whats to satisfy…
If Control Clock is important why is it important to some but not others?
Is having d”Arnaud under control an extra year really important if Ike is gone because we lost control on him and they didn’t play together long enough to win something together that neither could do by themselves?
I just can’t understand how something can be important one minute than irrelevant the next by the same person only second apart.
We demand consistency from our baseball players but apparently never of ourselves.
I guess the Control Clock is like this blog site. Everyone has their own ideas and agenda. I am fine with being patient to put the best team out there. I undertsand why teams (not just the Mets) use the “clock” on players, just like players have arbitration and free agency to use.
Thanks Metsie for your insight. Have a good weekend.
Ike was brought up in a different situation, by a different FO. Not sure what consistency you are looking for, but the overwhelming number of teams do this with even top prospects. Actually, especially top prospects, because those are the ones that tend to get expensive quick. the scrubs, no one really cares about the clock.
I’ll respond to both but first MT Not accusing you of doing anything wrong nor saying patience isn’t wrth having…
But if the GOAL is to build a young team that can win in a sustained manner….
The guys whose clock have already started are as important to building that CORE as the guys whose clock isn’t started but are expected to complete the core your trying to build.
If we are building around guys like Davis and Tejada by adding Wheeler and d’Arnaud then the fact your losing a year on the CLOCK on one player makes having another year on another irrelevant.
But further to my point still….
Why is ANYONE’s clock important at all?
Is it because when the clock runs out they have to leave?
Do they have to be replaced when the timer hits ZERO?
Does thier PAST THIER PRIME clock start when the MLB Service clock does?
Does delaying starting the clock delay the day they hit the age of 33?
Or is it that you have to PAY THEM a year earlier?
Is it all about MONEY?
If it is then this whole discussion of CLOCK is just another way of GMing a team based on Money and not success.
Get the success a year earlier then there is no reason to NOT pay them the money a year earlier….
Lets stop looking at how we build our team based on Money….
I am a fan of the Mets not a fan of the Wilpons…..
And I see no reason to hold back a kid that is READY, WASTE his youth on games that do not help the MLB team on some AAA team, all in the name of saving the wilpons a few million for one year.
You may not agree with that but this has nothing to do with PATENCE it’s all about WASTE…
If you are good enough to play in the MLB then PLAY HIM in the MLB not the AAA team where all he can really get out of being there is a year older….
I believe wheeler, D’arnaud, decker, lagares and keep an eye out for Corey Vaughn. He’s my sleeper pick…
Joe D, i have a problem with this about wheeler: “His numbers will most likely be adversely affected by the rarefied air of Vegas, but ready or not, here he comes”
It sounds like an excuse to me.. If he does bad there is because it’s vegas, but if he doesn’t then i am sure people will say he’s tom seaver.. And also, what does this say about d’arnaud? If a i am correct didn’t he play in the PL where he put up his best numbers? Don’t use numbers as an excuse, Either he’ll do good or not, either way he’ll be up since the mets fans won’t show up until there’s something to look forward to, so SA will try to sell mets fans d’arnau and wheeler as the foundation for 2014
On that note, Alderson made d’Arnaud a mythical legend after that story he told. I wonder if he realizes the enormous pressure and expectations he places on Wheeler and d’Arnaud by making them larger than life?
As to your Vegas concerns, the numbers will benefit all Mets hitters not just Plawecki. We are going to have some Ruthian seasons in Vegas in 2013. In fact Alderson will be there on Opening Day rather than Citi Field so he could catch all the real on-field excitement. You can go to if you want Alex, You should fly up there and meet him.
HA! Fair enough… How sad this season will be when the GM prefers to be watching the minor leaguers rather then the team he built in the majors… SMH
He also put up even better numbers in Double-A where the league was not so hitter friendly. Don’t write off d’Arnaud just yet theres a reason hes a top ten prospect in the game.
I am going to add one name to the above list that I think has a shot of making his mlb debut this year as well. Juan Centeno.
I actually had Centeno on my original post. But I had to take him off as soon as I heard the Mets signed Landon Powell.
Doubtful.
I believe you missed a few low odd options there…
Mejia and Familia are both as likely to start the season as either Wheeler or d’Arnaud if for no other reason than the control issues on those two….
I guess you could consdider the two MiL contract OFers as well but I can understand why you would not count them as they are not really prospects just signings.
Those players already had their MLB debuts, Metsie.
AHHH I see the distinction now….Nevermind….
Flores 2:1 – he will be up before All-Star break!
Playing where? 2B? backing Wright?? OF? I am not sure they’ll bring him up and if they do he’ll be lost as he needs to learn yet another new position. and people talk about how this FO is great at developing players in the minors
I’m under the assumption that at some point one of those guys are gonna miss time with some sort of injury…muscle strains and crap like that. I’m not saying he will displace anyone, just think he will be up and have a role sooner rather than later.
To play where? Unless you are factoring a Wright or Murph injury, he’ll not be on the team unless he can shag a fly ball in the OF.
I could see that happening under some circumstances…Tejada missing time like lastyear they could put Flores at SS just to see him at his natural position….
I also would not count out them throwing him at 2B if Murphy struggles vs Lefties in some sort of Platoon….
But unless Wright has another Back issue no way he plays 3B
I’d say den Dekker is the outfielder closest to major league ready. Lagaras hasn’t even played in AAA yet.
Juan Centeno 1:1 odds of making the mets mlb roster by opening day !
Between me and you and the four walls in this virtual room we call MMO, if we had a top 35 Centeno would be on it. We are doing a Top 10 honorable mentions list that will appear after our top 25 is completed. I’m almost certain Centeno will be on it. He’s definitely on mine, but we do a consensus to keep things fair and I don’t who the others have selected yet.
no worries…i wont tell anyone !
Jack Leathersich hasn’t even made Bingo yet. I sincerely doubt we’ll see him this year. Don’t get me wrong, I like the kid, but I think your time table is a little short.
there is going to be a big need for live arms out of the pen.
would not surprise me at all to see guys that are kicking butt in Bingo brought in, though that will cause all kind of havoc on the 40 man. So it better be somethat that really looks ready, or at least has to be protected this off season.
so yeah, the rocket might be a stretch this year, but there is some chance.
It would not surprise me to see a lot of Pitching jump from Bingo to the MLB just to avoid Las Vegas and the stats that can hurt the value there….
I think your 2/1 odds are way too good of a bet for Wheeler/d’Arnaud. I’d say at least 9/5
even te 15:1 guys are a pretty good shot at some point. Quite likely to see some dipping down lower for pen arms along the way.
This was an interesting way to project who will come up. I never saw it done like this before, nice job.
On a team that has about 5 legit major league players I would say that we should see the debut of about 20 or so prospects. You better lengthen that list a little bit.
Obviously injuries could change everything. Even crazier is that even though one cannot predict injuries, one must still account and depending on them happening. In true Bill Cosby for, I say all that to say this, injuries could affect my timetable but whatever….
Wheeler and ‘dArnaud will debut together as the Mets try for their first sellout of the year on April 26th against the Phillies. Wilmer will be up by mid-July when Murphy is traded. den Dekker will be up around the same time when Hairston is traded this go-round.
What did Depo say about Lagares?
There will be several debuts barring season ending injuries for several players.
The odds for Wheeler & D´Arnaud to debut probably are 90 % unless they´re out for the season, they´ll play in NY this year.
Flores and Lagares also figure to make their debuts unless they have a terrible year. Both will play in Vegas at some point in 2013 and are already on the 40-man roster.
For the same reason, Darin Gorski is likely to appear in the majors.
RH Gonzalez Germen has a good shot at a callup as a reliever since he´s on the 40-man as well for the time being.
In case Ruben Tejada has to go on the DL, the Mets may well call up Wilfredo Tovar.
So, these 5 all seem to have at least a 50-50 shot.
The forgotten man on the 40-man roster is 2b Reese Havens who turns 27 this year. While he´s brittle and underperformed in 2012, there´s a chance he gets the call too – if he keeps his roster spot. If the Mets add a SP, a RP and an OF between now & April, Havens may lose the 40-man roster spot, possibly be claimed and debut with another organization.
Puello & Robles are on the 40-man too but seem doubtful to make it, barring a true breakout year in 2013. Odds probably are below 25 %, given both figure to open 2013 in High A ball.
Other natural candidates are those players who will need to be protected on the 40-man after the 2013 season anyway:
OF Matt Den Dekker certainly seems likely.
OF Corey Vaughn & OF Darrel Ceciliani face sort of “make or break” seasons. If they master AA, there´s a good chance for a September cup of coffee for them as a reward.
Same is true for RHP Jake DeGrom who could be fast tracked based on his advanced age (24) and plus stuff.
RH Domingo Tapia and LH Steve Matz also are prime candidates for Rule V protection after 2013 but probably are too far away to realistically appear.
Obviously a bunch of lesser ceilinged upper level prospects such as C Juan Centeno, RH Ryan Fraser, RH Armando Rodriguez, RH Eric Goeddell, RH Adrian Rosario, RH Greg Peavey, LH Hamilton Bennett or LH Adam Kolarek could force their way onto the roster with a strong season – sort of like Elvin Ramirez did in 2012. I´d guess at least 2 out of these 8 appear in games for the Mets in 2013.
Since the 40-man roster could be rather clogged, it´ll be very hard for anyone to crack it without needing protection.
RH Cory Mazzoni
RH Raffael Montero
LH Jack Leathersich
IF Danny Muno
RH Logan Verrett
RH Tyler Pill
all have an outside chance with a really good season.
But considering how many other players are eligible for the Rule V a year from now, it´d be difficult using up spots on players who wouldn´t need to be protected on the 40-man until after 2013.