12
2013
The Mets Outfield: Why It Might Actually Work
An article by 
With Spring Training only a month away (Huzzah!), and little movement on the part of the Mets front office, it is looking more and more like the Mets will mix and match their outfield with a bunch of ragtag journeymen and hope for the best.
Before I go any further, let me make it perfectly clear that this is clearly not an ideal situation and I am grasping at straws with this post. But I do think this may be able work. Call me an optimist, call me an idiot, call me crazy – you’re probably right on all accounts. However, it is what it is, and when you dig into the numbers you’ll find that maybe all hope is not lost after all.
2012 MLB Outfields and the Mets
Before we get into the current situation, let’s take a look back and see how Major League outfields performed as a whole. In 2012, the Major League averages for all three outfield positions were as follows:
Left Fielders: 619 AB – .260 Average, .756 OPS
Center Fielders: 631 AB – .265 Average, .748 OPS
Right Fielders: 623 AB – .262 Average, .761 OPS
Now let’s look and see how the 2012 Mets outfielders fared:
Left Fielders: 607 AB – .222 Average, .661 OPS
Center Fielders: 596 AB – .247 Average, .711 OPS
Right Fielders: 601 AB – .245 Average, .715 OPS
Oof — that’s rough, though not surprising to anybody who followed the Mets on a regular basis like all of us. On the bright side though, it can’t get much worse! And maybe…just maaaybe…it might even get better. Let’s now look ahead to 2013 and see what we have to work with.
Left Field
All indications are that Lucas Duda will be the starting left fielder for the Metsies in 2013. After some high (and probably unfair) expectations last year, Duda disappointed, hitting only .239 with a .718 OPS. He did, however, manage to hit 15 home runs, and while his batting average and OPS were well below the league average for left fielders last year, they were an upgrade over 2012 Mets left fielders. The problem – and you’ll see this is a problem for all three positions I’m going to cover – is Duda only had 401 at-bats last season, almost 200 less than the league average. It’s hard to say if his numbers would have gotten better or worse with an extra 200 at-bats, though to due his experience and the fact that he seemed to perform a little better after getting recalled from the Minor Leagues late in the year, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume his numbers would at least stay relatively similar.
The X-factor in all of this is Scott Hairston. If Hairston were to re-sign with the Mets, they could use him in a platoon with Duda in left field. Let’s say they do just that. Here is a look at Duda vs. right-handed pitching last year and Hairston vs. left-handed pitching last year, to which I then combined for an average among the two:
2012 Lucas Duda vs. RHP: 267 AB – .240 Average, .745 OPS
2012 Scott Hairston vs. LHP: 189 AB – .286 Average, .867 OPS
Total: 456 AB – .263 Average, .806 OPS
While the batting average is just about on par with the league average, the OPS is a very nice upgrade. While it might dip a little bit with an additional 150 at-bats or so, I don’t think it would be significant enough to drop below the league average. Together, Duda and Hairston combined could make for a pretty nice left-fielder. Defensively they will probably be atrocious, but at least they have the ability to do some damage with the bat to make up for it.
Center Field
This is where I really start to get ridiculous. According to MLB Depth Charts, which has become my new obsession, the Mets will most likely go with a platoon in center field of Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Collin Cowgill. Nieuwenhuis showed some potential when he was first called-up last year, but eventually it all caught up to him and he was nothing more than a replacement-level player for the rest of his time on the Mets. Cowgill didn’t get much of a chance with the Oakland A’s in 2012, and was probably going to get even less of a chance this year, due to their crowded outfield. So, as we did with Duda and Hairston, here’s what the combination of Kirk and Collin might have looked like last year:
2012 Kirk Nieuwenhuis vs. RHP: 221 AB – .271 Average, .740 OPS
2012 Collin Cowgill vs. LHP: 44 AB – .318 Average, .844 OPS
Total: 265 AB – .295 Average, .792 OPS
Again, a very solid combo and well above league average. But also only 265 at-bats. That’s not much of a sample size at all, especially when you’re comparing it to an average of 600+ at-bats. That being said, even if Cowenhuis (or Nieuwengill? Or maybe neither…) regress to the mean, that mean is still a .265 batting average and .748 OPS. I don’t think that’d be too much of a shock if that happened, looking at this tiny sample size.
Right Field
Rounding out the outfield, MLB Depth Carts says the Mets will go with a platoon of Mike Baxter – the little gentleman that he is – and someone called Andrew Brown. I believe he gave me a free oil change one time. In all seriousness, apparently Brown had a cup of coffee with the Rockies last year, so we do have a few at-bats to look at. They look like this:
2012 Mike Baxter vs. RHP: 160 AB – .288 Average, .836 OPS
2012 Andrew Brown vs. LHP: 40 AB – .275 Average, .775 OPS
Total: 200 AB – .282 Average, .806 OPS
Once again we see a very nice combination, but we run into the same lack of sample size as we did in center field. I highly doubt an .800 OPS out of these two guys over the course of a full season. I also highly doubt a .761 OPS out of them, which was the 2012 league average. But even a .745 OPS would be a 30 point upgrade from last year’s Mets right fielders, and I would absolutely sign on for that.
Simply put, in order for this plan to work, these players need to prove that the stats I just spewed are actual expected platoon stats, and not just the result of a miniscule sample size. I think bringing back Scott Hairston is a bigger deal than people may think, as it gets them a legitimate power threat against left-handed pitching, which they currently do not have outside of David Wright. However, when you look at the league averages of outfielders from the past year, combined with what the Mets outfielders did, I don’t think it’s as hopeless as it looks. There’s a chance this outfield might have a chance to put up some decent numbers offensively. At least, we have no choice but to hope so.
About the Author: Adam Rossi
I graduated from Siena College in 2008 with a BA in English and a minor in Writing. I was brainwashed at birth by my grandfather to become a Mets fan, and have been following the team since my youth. While they've driven me mad over the years, I still do my best to try to keep things in perspective. Follow me on Twitter: @aj16ross
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 22 | 18 | .550 | - |
| Nationals | 22 | 19 | .537 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 19 | 22 | .463 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 15 | 23 | .395 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 30 | .268 | 11.5 |
Last updated: 05/17/2013
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This outfield only works in the movies! This by far is the crappiest outfield ever assembled in the known universe!
,
Maybe we could revive John Lowenstien, and Gary Roenicke for a platoon in Citifiled.
“Before I go any further, let me make it perfectly clear that this is clearly not an ideal situation and I am grasping at straws with this post. But I do think this may be able work. Call me an optimist, call me an idiot, call me crazy – you’re probably right on all accounts. However, it is what it is, and when you dig into the numbers you’ll find that maybe all hope is not lost after all.”
Stand your ground – if you think the outfield is going to work, say it. Tell us why you think it will work and move on and if people think you are an idiot, trust me, they will tell you (especially on MMO).
The only problem I have is putting Duda in LF – traditionally the LF position should be manned by the better defensive player. I would have Duda in RF.
The 2000 Mets went to the World Series, running a combination of Benny Agbayany, Timo Perez, Darryl Hamilton, Jay Payton and Bubba Trammell out there on a daily basis – a group of fringe major leaguers not really any better ( and older) than the group of no-names that are penciled in for the time being.
At least there’s a chance that Kirk Nieuewenhuis, Lucas Duda, Collin Cowgill, Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown improve a bit considering their medium age in the mid 20s and lack of MLB track record. Is it likely ? No, at least not for the majority of them. Still, weirder things have happened. All have in common that they have nothing left to prove at AAA, a level they have mostly dominated in recent years. So might as well find out for good whether they are Quad A players or something better in 2013.
Nobody thought players such as Jon Jay, Allen Craig, David Freese, Skip Shoemaker, Danny Descalso would lead the St.Louis Cardinals to the playoffs multiple times. None of them ever was a highly touted, top 100 in Baseball caliber prospect and most of them were 26 or 27 when they became fulltime major leaguers.
Considering that 2013 will be a building year anyway, might as well try to find out what you can squeeze out of a group like that.
people like to harp on the 2000 OF going to the WS, while ignoring the fact that the IF (and catcher) were far and away the best in MLB as a unit, more than making up for it.
does not really matter where the big bats were playing, just how many they had!
Well Mitch I think it’s the opposite….
You put your best ARM in RF not LF and if you have a power guy who is slow footed it is MUCH better to put him in LF where getting to the ball late doesn’t give up the extra base due to the much shorter throw involved.
The issue with Duda is anything down the line, He catches just fine when he gets to it and his arm is ok nothing to write home about.
By putting him in LF on hits down the line they will stay doubles instead of the triples they become when he is there in RF.
All because the 3rd base coach is going to hold up the runner at 2nd on a hit to LF where he will wave the runner over on a similar hit to right.
So LF is actuallly the best place for Duda right now.
You had me until the last line? Traditionally LF is for better defenders? Huh? LF has traditionally been where you stash IF and guys with bad arms. RF with exceptions has been the more all-around player.
A true platoon like this could work, but the problem is you are blowing 3 bench spots for OF. That leaves C and 3B/SS/2B back up which this team really doesn’t have (I left out 1B as Duda could technically play there).
You saved me the trouble of mentioning that #s point.
Only way this works is if one of these guys is also a legit 3B/1B back up. 3B being less of an issue most likely.
so playing along, Duda plays 1B. Hairston, he probably could in a pinch.
3B would have to be Murphy, or whoever was the MI BU guy (and at this point, I am totally befuddled as to who that is)
the scary idea is they seem to think Turner could play OF too, meaning he could be part of this rotation.
If turner could actually play OF, it would be great, though I think he stinks.
If you figure Duda, Kirk, Hairston are the “starters, with Cowgill and Baxter as bench guys. You then have Recker as the C, Turner as the 2B/3B guy and then you have either Cedeno if re-signed, Bixler, Q, or (shudders) Valdy as SS/2B backups.
Honestly, unless Valdy claims an everyday OF spot or proves to be better than Baxter, I’m not sure he makes the big club.
It looks like you are taking the average of the OPS from the long half and short half of the platoon. If you have a RHd hitter who has an OPS of 800 (I like to leave off the decimal point) and a LHd hitter whose OPS is 700 then the net is not 750 since the lefty is out there about 2/3 of the time.
I do expect Duda to hit better this season but he gives much of his offense back by being a god-awful fielder. Hairston is a poor fielder too.
I expect the outfield to be extremely poor both offensively and defensively unless Alderson magically produces one or two major league OFers very soon. I think Lucas Duda can be a productive major league hitter but any team that uses him in the outfield is making a big mistake. He has to be a 1Bman or DH (in the AL) IMHO.
Duda is (historically) markedly better defensively in Left for some odd reason.
less room to cover.
plus runners wont be able to go 1st to 3rd as often on a groundball to RF as a normal RF wouldnt have to play so deep.
Duda was damn near the warning track against Reyes ( to prevent a triple )
Reyes hits a single and a runner basically moonwalked from 1B to 3B as BigFoot took too long to get to it
these are the little things the sabermetric wizard doesnt consider…
this is why i was shocked Bay wasnt in RF as he has decent range and speed…which means he is 10x faster than Duda
I get what you’re saying and I’m an optimist (especially in spring training) but to some this almost sounds like a defense of Sandy. HIT THE DECK!
Worst OF in the league? Worst OF in baseball? If they don’t sign Hairston worst outfield of the 21st century?
you’re an optimist, you’re crazy, you’re an idiot. No, but I do think what you describe is where the Mets are headed. If a legit OF can be traded for they will do so. Otherwise I can see them adding Hairston and possibly Delmon Young if he can be had cheaply. Let the younger guys prove they are worth keeping next year or not and see if a legit OF with 2 or more years on their contract can be acquired at the deadine. LGM!
It is possible that a platoon can be affective while also keeping players relatively fresh throughout the season. In the end this season is about finding out more about our young pitchers in Harvey, Wheeler, Famillia, Mejia, and what Drnaud is about as he will be up in May, can Duda be the answer in Left. The Mets will trade or add free agent outfielders next season with a starter and closer. There is also still an outside chance Mets get Upton as well.
One of the most ignored reasons for the success Oakland had last year was their willingness to platoon players in the OF. Obviously, all teams would love guys you can trot out everyday. But when you’re not able to, platooning is a serviceable option. This is not a new reality, but it could be an increasingly viable norm for teams not able to field three non-flawed OFers. It also goes very much into our motif for 2013 and beyond, patch it together and hope for the best.
Thanks, Adam. I agree that they are going to take another look at the youngsters to see if any of them can be part of the future. Starting in LF we know Duda is going to be there. He is an upgrade over Bay already. Maybe they should give him a chance to see what he can do as a full time player before relegating him to a platoon role so early in his career. The same goes for Kirk. He started out the year like gangbusters until the league adjusted to him and found a weakness. This is the way it usually works and its up to kirk to adjust to it or be cast off. The only thing I disagree with is Baxter in RF. If anything, I would like to see valdy get the job there to see what he can do in a full time role. Baxter and cowgill will be the backups unless they re-sign Hairston.
Now, for all of those who say this will be the worst outfield ever, I disagree. I think getting rid of 2 veterans who stunk it up is addition by subraction right there.
Valdy, Kirk and Duda have all shown potential to be effective major league players who have upside and need to be given a shot at everyday jobs to show what they can do.
No, not crazy. Obviously taking the best case scenario, but the concept is sound.
My opinion is that if you don’t have a “real” everyday player (or a prospect with major upside), then hell yeah platoon. Best way to hide flaws and maximize output.
now, like Tex said above, you have 6 guys. I don’t think there will be 3 full platoons, more like a 5 man rotation, so 1 of the lefties (most likely Duda) will be in all the time.
so take out one of the RH batters (brown or Hairston, being considered for the same job) and the winner + cowgirl will be starting somewhere vs. LHP.
in any case, the bench is going to get a lot of ABs this year, with pretty much everyone except the MI BU being a semi-regular instead.
they all cant hit, they all cant field, and they all bat lefty , along with murpy and davis. please!!! How about a trade , some young pitchers( familia,mejia) some lefty bats murphy duda , and we bring some real outfield prospect maybe righthanded power, good defense hey maybe a guy that played the position as a kid
kirk is a good fielder so supposedly is cowgill. Valdy can run so at least there is hope there.
I dont know what to say and I applaud your work and optimism but reading everything makes me ill. What a mess to have 3 OF positions platooned and thats the best case scenario because Hairston isnt on the team. I still have some optimism Sandy will fill one spot with a legit bat otherwise rallies will be crushed and it will be frustrating. Im in the small majority to bat Kirk leadoff. Hes not the prototypical leadoff hitter but it may make him more patient. Who knows….
How about Frank Thomas in LF, Jim Hickman in CF and Gus Bell in RF?
The Mets outfield is a total mess and unless we sign a free agent we will surely discover where we are at with the players we have.My concern is Duda after watching him in right field moving him to left probably will not be any improvement he just not that good,the Mets fell in love with his bat and a need for a power hitter and thats the only reason why he is still here. Duda is a trade away from being a bench player and unless something changes for the good thats what his role will be with this team.If everything stays as it is currently Duda,Kirk and others will have a an opportunity to prove they belong only time will tell.