2
2013
Morning Grind: Is Ike Davis Heading Toward A Statistical Cliff?
An article by Craig Lerner
Is Ike Davis heading toward a statistical cliff?
I’m really concerned about the fact that unless something drastic happens between now and Opening Day, there will be no real legitimate right-handed power bat to protect Ike Davis in the lineup.
The Mets are lacking a true number five hitter.
With Davis being the Mets’ number one power source on the team, why would any opposing pitcher throw him anything that he could wallop?
Especially when they know his propensity for chasing pitches out of the strike zone?
We know how intense a player Davis is, and we’ve seen him go through prolonged slumps before. But unless we get him some real protection in the lineup, I can see him having even more prolonged slumps than we saw in 2010 and 2012, and that could have an adverse effect on his overall production and development. The carry-over effect can even ripple down to David Wright’s production as well.
I know it’s still early, but I also know the Mets seem unwilling to overpay in dollars or in prospects to get the right-handed bat they will need to keep the 2013 lineup from becoming a significant offensive problem for the team. We already are lacking a true lead-off batter with .370+ on-base skills, but a power laden middle of the order could have made up for that.
I thought for certain that acquiring a right-handed power bat for the outfield was going to be a logical assumption for the front office. I guess I was mistaken. But is anybody else as concerned about this as I am, or is this just much ado about nothing on my part?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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It’s not the best circumstance but considering the current lineup do you really have a choice but to go
Tejada, Murphy, Davis, Wright, Duda, Buck, Kirk, RF of the day?
Ike is not your prototypical #3 nor is Wright your best fit for #4 but to get the most out of the lineup and it’s LHness there aren’t many better solutions.
You know TC will never do that. Not at first. I’m willing to bet he slides Wright into that 3rd slot and builds the rest of the line up around it.
I predict we’ll see more line up configurations in ’13 then we did last year, given the platoon OF we’re likely going with.
Honestly SRT with the current lineup I am not so sure he has a choice. Unless we see some changes.
You can’t hit Davis and Duda back to back. It was awful.
No argument from me on this idea.
This is going to be a problem that won’t be solved through free agency considering what’s left out there. You almost have to sign Hairston now so at least he can bat 5th against leftys. But it’s still not an ideal situation.
Of course it’s not nothing, it’s the Black Hole in the Mets universe and what will generate the loud sucking sound as we get pulled into the basement. This team will never be a true success without legitimate power on the corners and as we are so left handed at this needs to be filled with a right handed bat. Left field to this team what catcher was to the 84 team, if all the pitching develops as expected. If Sandy can pull a Cashen and swing a deal for a power hitting righty swinger, that’s when we will be contenders
What type of statistical analysis leads you to believe that he is headed for a cliff?!?! Is it just your gut? Or is it his monster second half? Is it him reaching his physical and mental prime? Is it the fact that the only prolonged slump he has had was coming off a serious ankle injury AND a valley fever scare? Please….lets not get crazy in criticizing the few solid things the mets have this year.
It worked alright in the 2nd half of 2012, so I don´t expect any serious problems for Ike.
I suppose Duda will bat 5th – barring Hairston re-signing or barring a lineup where Nieuwenhuis leads off, Tejada 2nd, Murphy 3rd, Wright cleanup, Davis 5th and Duda 6th.
So, if Duda hits, Ike is protected. If Duda doesn´t, Ike won´t see too many good pitches to hit.
This is a major concern that the FO office needs to address. Seriously, Alderson needs to start talks with the Marlins for Stanton. Stanton is sure to be a malcontent on that decimated Marlin team this year. Loria is not going to want a malcontent on the team. I think with the right package he can be had. Of course any package will have to start with Neise and also include Flores. If they truly have as much confidence in the young pitchers as we all hear, they should consider a major trade of this kind. Stanton is worth it.
Watchman, if the Marlins trade Stanton then Niese is of no use to them. They are both a FA at around the same time and the last two years Niese is getting paid.
It would be more like Harvey/Wheeler,Syndergaard, Flores and most likely 2 more top 20 players.
Too bad we didnt trade the golden boy for some prospects…so we can include THOSE prospects in a trade for Stanton….as i originally proposed back in November….tsk tsk tsk…
and yes, Stanton is a much better power hitter than David Wright is…
than that 138 mil can be used to extend players….and keep payroll miniscule enough to add on when needed…
Stanton is a much better power hitter than David Wright is…”
Let me add to your comment something else here, he not only is a better power hitter… He’s a better all around player..
Again – why do you continue to pretend you know David Wright would sign a long term deal with a team he is traded to? He isn’t RA Dickey looking for 2-3 years, he’s a player looking for his big 6-7 year deal.
So in order to get these magical prospects you need a team that
A) wants to win now
B) is willing to offer a 6-7 $100+m extension before a trade is submitted
C) wright wants to play there
So lets say Colorado offers the Mets the best prospect package. Are they a win now team? Would Wright want to play there for 7 years?
You have no idea. You’re punishing the Mets for not doing something that you have no clue if it could be done. It’s not as easy as pushing a button in a video game.
Can you tell me for certain that the team David Wright would get traded to would offer him such an amazing contract that he would NOT choose to test an open market next year that could include teams like the Yankees possibly, the Braves, the Phillies, the Angels, the Dodgers, the White Sox?
Of course you can’t. So harping on this “we should have traded him for prospects” is a bogus claim on your part because you are ignoring everything about the market and choosing to focus on 1 tiny aspect of making a trade as though this is a video game
right…because the only way a team can command a haul is in a sign and trade…
the mere thought of a top player being traded for a haul w/o an extension being signed is ludicrous !
- The Firm
oh wait. So now you’re trying to tell me that a team would send a haul of prospects to have David Wright on their team for 1 year?
Really?
Why would they do that in the winter exactly? Because we’re mets fans and deserve their best prospects?
Get real. Stop trying to create a situation that legitimizes your fantasy of getting Wright out of New York. You want to get 1 prospect for Wright sure go ahead but what does that do?
You’re not getting a “haul” for a 30 year old free agent.
Well you do seem to thnk that they achieved that with Dickey who was only signed for a year and had to be negotiated with to get more as if he was FA….
So YES they could have gotten it for Wright too if they were as willing to lower thier return expectations as they did with Dickey.
Originally Sandy was holding out for TWO MLB ready prospects not the one he got for Dickey….
In the end either Jeffy or Sandy himself wanted Dickey gone so bad (due to BAD PR reasons alone) that they took less just to get rid of him.
They could have done the same with Wright but again PR concerns ruled the day….
In the end the Dickey trade got us not much more than an improved catcher at the cost of a Cy Young guy….
The whole point of trading him was to get an upgrade for Thole AND a OFer who could fill the most glaring need on the team.
They didn’t get that….
Might have for Wright but then we would need a 3B or be forced to rush Flores.
I am with you on this. If we are so deep in young pitching, I start by offering them Neise, Murphy, Flores, Familia and another prospect. Proven major league starter with upside, decent hitter who can play third, second or first and two or three upper level prospects. Stanton would indeed be worth it as he is still young. Sign a couple of stop gap free agent pitchers until Wheeler and the new kid from Toronto are ready. 2013 is a wreck before it starts but this would add a legit long term RIGHT HANDED bat and solid outfielder to the team. It would boost David Wright and Ike Davis’ production as well. If if the kid catcher can hit like they say eventually he slides into the six hole and helps ‘protect’ Stanton.
Tejada, Valdespin, Wright, Davis, Stanton, Duda, Capt. Kirk, Buck (until D’Arnaud is ready) isn’t terrible.
Harvey, Capuano (bull dog type), Santana, Gee and Carson, Meija or Chris Young as the rotation. Not great, but you have to sacrifice for the bigger picture. Maybe Wheeler shows up later in the year.
A deal for Stanton right now would probably have to look like this:
Zach Wheeler or Matt Harvey
+
Noah Syndergaard or Michael Fulmer or Domingo Tapia
+
Jenry Mejia or Jeurys Familia
+
Wilmer Flores
+
Brandon Nimmo or Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Pretty much a 5 for 1 with one elite prospect / young players and four more promising young pieces heading to Miami.
Considering what the Mets plan on doing, i.e. build a deep & sustainable longterm roster, I´m not sure chasing a young superstar via trade right now is the best way to go.
Instead, give the young talent already in the organization another full year to develop and see where you stand next off-season.
By then, several of the prospects currently in A-ball should have advanced significantly and thus garnered a lot more trade value than they have today, being a lot closer to the majors.
One key part about any rebuilding process is creating a lot of depth. While patience is difficult, it´s smarter letting that depth develop before prematurely shooting for a player like Stanton and destroying that depth again – as tempting as it may be. A year from now, a package of just Syndergaard, Nimmo and Mejia may be enough to get Stanton. And may make a lot of sense in case Harvey & Wheeler are established MLB starting pitchers already.
I said basically the same thing above. You trade for Stanton then you better believe in everything we currently have on the MLB roster because you won’t have anything coming in the minors for a while.
You still have Neemo !!!
he’s our untouchable prospect !
untouchable b/c no one wants to touch him
lmao
There’s a player on the mets who’s had 4 consecutive bad second halves of the season, yet we signed that player for 8 more years when it’s obvious the guy will be on decline mode but hey, let’s worry about ike davis, a guy who’s 26 and just had 30+ HR on a horrendous season for him, ohhh, and wait, let’s not point out that he was hitting over 300 in 2011 before getting hurt, and also let’s forget how his defense help the defense as well. yep, let’s focus on him, a player who’s basically has had a rookie season and last year coming off a whole year off.. Let’s forget the fact that after june 12 of last year the man hit 265 343 559 with 27 HR and 68 RBI in 380 PA. Yea, let’s pick on him while not stating the obvious guy who’s on the decline while making a ton on money… This article is a joke…
Bingo
happy new year alex
I have a question for you “There’s a player on the mets who’s had 4 consecutive bad second halves of the season”
How come in 2011 when Wright went .226/.337/.404 in the 1st half and .272/.349/.440 in the 2nd half you count that as a bad second half?
Happy new year to you too JesseP.. We all know you love DW, it’s not secret, you’re one of his biggest supporters, so i will ask you this… If we go bu his numbers, career wise, since you like to use it all the time when we talk about him and his unclutch moments, would you say that being 272 340 440 is a good half for him???
Well you should know, I don’t live the guy. I mean, I like him – he’s a Met and will be a lifelong Met so I really see no reason to spend time being negative about a guy. I want him to succeed because I want the Mets to succeed.
I said on more than 1 occasion that he won’t be worth the value of the contract he gets but that the Mets have to sign him.
I think Wright is a very good player that is expected to be great. I don’t think there is anything wrong with being a very good player in MLB. Based on players who have played for a while, I probably would put Wright in the Top 5 for 3B right now. (Miggy, Beltre, Zimmerman, Longoria would round out my top 5)
I don’t buy into the clutch argument because I find it to be based on lack of facts and more emotion. If Wright hits a game winning HR in Game 7 of the World Series. does he suddenly go from not clutch to clutch on your mind? I doubt he does. You remember what you wish to remember about a guy.
Your biggest argument against Wright is his lack of clutch play yet you admit Reyes is an all time favorite and in comparison, Reyes is way more to blame for the Mets 07 and 08 collapses than Wright – so I struggle with why that is ignored?
So to answer your question, in 2011 I’d say a vastly improved offensive 2nd half from Wright would dictate it was not a bad 2nd half as you suggest.
A .789 2nd half OPS isn’t hall of fame material but it’s certainly not bad.
All of this doesn’t mean I love Wright or look at Wright through a different scope than others – it just means I look at the facts when judging him.
being negative about a guy. I want him to succeed because I want the Mets to succeed”
Negative? Saying he’s unclutch is negative? Saying he doesn’t deserve that contract is being negative? Most of you think that just because we point out the flaws he has we are negative or somehow personally hate the guy which is furter from the truth. He is human and he makes mistakes you know, he’s not perfect and just because he speaks well english, and has nice dimples doesn’t mean he can’t be criticized. I’ve criticized reyes, beltran, delgado, wagner, alex cora, etc the same, yet not many people said anything about it, but as soon as i said back in 2008 “Damn, david wright is just not a clutch player” All hell broke loose and all of the sudden, mets blogs everywhere pegged me and a few other who agreed as DW haters.. The man is not a guy who you would START your franchise with, simple as that.. Moving on!
When was the last time David Wright put up stats in the 2nd half worthy of a 138 million dollar contract?
2008
Not even debatable
So just to be clear Damaja. You’re saying the last time Wright had a 2nd half worth $138million was coincidentally the last time the 2nd half of the season mattered for the Mets (2008)?
But he’s not clutch right?
So having a lackluster 2nd half on terrible teams carries more weight to you than having a .988 OPS in the 2nd half during a playoff chase? Got it.
Is it really worth reasoning anymore on Wright? The biases are comical at this point and we really are completely aware of where and what it comes from.
I think you can make the same case about Alderson. I hadn’t learned until reading this blog that Alderson was responsible for everything bad that has ever happened to the Mets since the beginning of time and has never once in his life done anything positive.
Enlightening.
Boomer – Alderson also forced the Brooklyn Dodgers to leave, the San Francisco World Series earthquake v. Oakland and he didn’t invent the Internet, he invented the viruses and spyware that infect your computer via the internet. I also heard he hates dogs.
He turned me into a newt.
I got better.
Burn him!!!
LMAO
so hitting 25 points under your career average with mediocre power is good numbers ???
lmao
The Firm !
Picking on him??? Come on the article is silly…..I agree…but its about lack of “protection” for him. It was praising him as a the teams best power hitter.
You are the joke.
The article was not picking on Davis, but whatever.
I have a question too, why does every article about another player other then Wright, have to come with a slam to Wright.
Is it ever possible to talk about the merits of one player, in this case Davis, and leave it at that?
As a Mets fan isn’t it better to have more good players then arguing one better than the other?
Happy New Year……………calendar changed, but apparently very little else.
“Is it ever possible to talk about the merits of one player, in this case Davis, and leave it at that?”
Obviously not for some.
Probably because the article states that Ike has no right-handed protection, but supposedly our best hitter is right-handed…so wouldnt it make sense for David Wright to hit behind Ike? Last year it was the other way around…and while David was putting up Superman numbers from April to July…Ike was slumping…once Ike broke out of his slump…David NOW HAD some protection…and Ike…still had NO PROTECTION….and no, Scott Hairston was not batting behind Ike…and even if he was, he hit .276 with 8 HR in the 2nd half…
This article refuses to deal with the fact that Ike Davis posted up Ike Davis like numbers with NO PROTECTION IN THE LINEUP…
and it also refuses to deal with the fact that David Wright put up his usual great 1st half numbers….again…with NO PROTECTION IN THE LINEUP…
the whole PROTECTION IN THE LINEUP argument is overblown and absolutely garbage…
The elephant in the room is that Ike Davis ( who was called aloof by Matt Cerrone ) has no value to the team from a marketing standpoint, but is without a doubt, the BEST position player on the roster…
side note:
Cerrone blocked me on twitter after I pointed out how much of a chicken he was for erasing his own scathing remarks on Ike
“Trading Ike would not be my preferred move. But, he can be a bit aloof, and I understand the argument from people who see him as a platoon player ”
- Matt Cerrone
after the reaction from the folks on metsblog…matt pretty much ran with his tail between his legs and erased what he wrote…
FYI – Metsblog also tried to make sure the aloof line was erased not only from the website but from google cached results…I have NEVER seen a professional sports team so deathly afraid of criticism as the New York Mets…
so wouldnt it make sense for David Wright to hit behind Ike?
Yup it sure would make sense and if they don’t add a RH hitter he might have to.
The 3rd spot is traditionally saved for your best all around hitter. One with good BA, OBP and a little pop is nice as well. Wright has fit that mold but without another RH hitter and with the construction of the lineup he may have to hit 4th which he has done before.
….and yet when Wright and Ike were in the lineup together….Wright has almost NEVER been the right-handed protection for Ike…
and please spare with the whole #3 hitter having to be the BEST hitter in the lineup…
Wright can not provide protection for anybody
look at Manny Ramirez…who was the anchor on that 2004 lineup…Manny was the guy who needed no protection…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ramirma02&year=2004&t=b
why?
cuz he had SUPERIOR PLATE DISCIPLINE…..You could surround Manny with the bad news bears and he still puts up .320 with 37 HR
same with Pujols…who put up monster numbers in crappy lineups…
Face it…Opposing pitchers would rather face DavidDimples in a tight situation than a cold-blooded assassin like Daniel Murphy…who has ice in his veins in the clutch…
hell I remember seeing the Cubs walk Angel Pagan and Lucas Duda in 1 series to load the bases TWICE to face Wright…once with less than 2 outs
FYI – Wright struck out in each situation
That didnt happen to Manny Ramirez until David Ortiz hit 54 HR in 1 season…and Ortiz mainly drew IBB with Manny getting walked right after !
thats right…opposing pitchers would rather face Trot Nixon or whoever was batting 5th with 2 runners on and 2 outs than David / Manny
David in 2006 had 54 HR and 23 IBB and Manny had 38 HR and 16 IBB ( the only year Manny did not lead the team in IBB )
David last year was getting IBB over and over when Ike was in a slump…once Ike broke out…pitchers started challenging David once again..
once a pitcher bears down on David and needs to get him out…the chances increase exponentially he will succeed…that was not the case back then….back when David had the bat speed to catch up to a 99 mph heater…the David of 2012 is a guess hitter…
If you say so… lets move on.
am i making up stats ?
I can show you exactly when David got those IBB’s
In the first half, David was leading the NL in IBB’s
In the 2nd half, this is what he did from July 13th to August 19th
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=wrighda03&t=b&year=2012&share=1.09#1190-1223-sum:batting_gamelogs
a .242 average with 2 IBB
in the next 4 game series against the rockies…David drew 4 IBB’s…
and that came from a lefty specialist Rex Brothers, who came in to get Ike Davis out…
the other 2 came in a game when Ike wasnt playing ( Jeff Francis )
the last IBB of the season came on Aug 23rd…again against Rex Brothers who came in the late innings to face a lefty…
so yeah…in the entire 2nd half…only Rex Brothers and Jeff Francis were afraid to face the Big Bad Wolf named David Wright…take those 2 fellas out of the equation…and David has 2 IBB’s in the 2nd half…
know why?
cuz when Wright is not right ( as he has been for 4 2nd halves in a row )
… teams would rather FACE the face of the franchise than Ike !!!
Blame that on the Sabermetric approach that has been adopted by many of putting your HR hitter into the third slot so he gets an extra PA per game….
Remember a lot of this OBP and Saber stuff is about making the best 3 hitter blocks in an attempt to score once every inning….
Which is why you see Speed guys hit 8th where before it was just the worst hitter on the team batting in front of the Pitcher….
I agree Wright should probably bat cleanup but the rub there is he isn’t really a Clean Up hitter…Ike is!
If they had a real leadoff hitter they could put Tejada 2nd, Murphy 3rd, Power RH OF Bat Cleanup, Davis, Wright, Duda, d’Arnaud, last OFer like Valde or Kirk, then the pitcher.
That would put Wright back in the order where he had great success in 2007 and 2008.
Then again…after seeing that despite the fact we had no other real handed power hitters…Wright batted 3rd almost the ENTIRE YEAR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2012&t=b#lineu
and Ike…hit 4th…5th…and 6th…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisik02&year=2012&t=b#lineu
and in 2010…also hit 4th…5th…and 6th…with Jason Bay serving as his protection
so basically…since Ike and Beltran never got to link up in 2011, ike has hit with little to NO protection since he came to this squad…and he is STILL the best power threat we have…
the elephant in this room ( and the reason we HAVE to bring up David Wright ) is that David SHOULD be sandwiched between Duda and Davis…but for some odd and inexplicable reason….he remained at the 3 spot…
This team has tried to do everything humanly possible to make exceptions for David Wright that they would never do for other players….everything revolves around David….
this is why a discussion on Ike comes right back to #TeamDimples
Where did it slam Wright?
Classic misdirection utilized here. That is like overlooking a Presidents problems by saying “well Congress is worse”. While it might be true, it does not absolve the President of his decisions. Same thing here.
If you are going this track, why not say Duda was worse? Or Francisco? Or the kid manning CF in your local little league? All of them have the same bearing on Ike’s performance.
The bottom line is Ike needs to do better against lefties…period. His splits are terrible. The Mets need him to be a run producer because, quite frankly, they dont have many options left. Duda hasnt provde he can hit major league pitching and his defense is such that he need to surpass Ike in production to compensate for his defensive woes.
As for the article, the writer points out the problem….Davis needs to lay off the breaking balls out of the zone. It might be true that he doesnt have a great deal of protection but so what…his job is to hit. Stanton was not exactly surrounded by Hall Of Fame players batting behind him this year. Nor was Posey. Ike needs to lock in and produce….it is that simple.
Teams are going to throw a healthy dose of lefthanders against the Mets against whom Davis has a .643 OPS career. If they don’t add a righthanded bat to balance that lineup, it’s curtains no matter how you set up the batting order.
Agreed, considering Duda and Davis’ splits you almost have to bat Wright in between them until they either add a RH bat or Flores is able to take over 2B
I do agree the Mets need another bat…and preferably a right handed one..but I think its much more of a team need than an Ike Davis need. I don’t see it having a drastic impact on Ike directly. I don’t think it’s going to be a situation where he never ever gets anything to hit…he hasn’t shown himself to be THAT good yet…and really nobody (except maybe Bonds during the steroid years) gets pitched around that much. Sure there’d be certain situations he might be pitched around in….but teams pick their spots at times anyway. Even if a solid righty is behind him…there’ll still be times where pitchers would pitch around the lefty and go after the righty. And they are still going to bring in the lefty to face him in tough spots.
I disagree only because of his splits. Late in the game he’s gonna have a hard time unless he learns to adapt to LHP. I guess that’s regardless but even more so if Duda is behind him.
I agree about lefties being a problem, but I don’t think having a RHH behind Ike is going to stop teams from bringing in lefties to face him. Many lefties are LOOGYs – one out guys…so its not out of the ordinary to bring in the LHP to face one batter. And if they want them to face more the one batter…they can always walk the righty. If Ike is the main lefty they are worried about (and if he’s the one with the big splits) he’s the one they are going to make sure the lefty faces.
I agree that having all the lefties in a row makes it easier for the opposing manager to manage. And it is good for a team to have a balanced offensive team. I just don’t think the effect is so drastic that having a RHH behind Ike is going to significantly reduce the number of LHP he faces….especially if his splits remain so drastic.
True about them being a LOOGY but if you have a guy behind him that’s a RH power hitter then the other manager has to make a decision. Do I bring in the LOOGY for Davis, then switch him out for a RH to face…. then what do I do about Duda? Regardless it makes things tougher on the other manager when your lineup has balance and due to that either Ike or the RH are most likely going to see a benefit.
Well forget the one time per game they might bring in a lefty to face Ike….
It’s pretty dumb to worry about what will happen ONCE in a game and ignore what will happen the other three PAs of that game.
They certainly aren’t bringing in a loogy to face Ike in the 1st-6th innings and send thier starter to the showers.
So to base a lineup on that scenario is a fools errand.
What the concern is what lineup works best vs the STARTER.
And just because they throw an LHP at you is no reason to not put out a balanced lineup as far as RHB/LHB is concerned….
This is a mistake Terry made a lot last year, he stacked the lineup with RHBs vs LHP Starters and Pretty much burned out all his RHBs from being available to pinch hit late in games when they DID bring in a loogy to face Ike or Duda.
Statistically speaking RHBs may put up better numbers vs LHPs but I bet if they looked they would find that RHBs on a BALANCED lineup hit LHP better than those who batted in a RHB stacked lineup did….
For the same reasons I stated in another reply to you earlier. The pitcher can get into a RHB groove and never have to leave it.
Davis is being setup for failure. Alderson doesn’t like his style or his hitting philosophy.
Maniac, do you know who the leading 1B was in PPA?
This bullcrap about Sandy not liking Davis approach? Nothing to it at all. Have you ever thought he was talking about someone else and there’s a reason why Ike didn’t go down?
Any other particular reason Sandy refused to deny the Ike Davis midnight movie going rumors ?
Or why Matt Cerrone said Ike was aloof and really more suited to just being a platoon player?
Because he considered it a non-story? I don’t really care what a GM says in public anyway and I am usually not listening.
O.K….you’re quoting Cerrone as a source?
He’s the most bipolar of Met fans I’ve ever run across. The night they fired Willie he came out in full blast against the Mets. By mid-day, he did a complete turn around.
In Sep of 2007, he went from this team will get to post season to their doomed, back and forth – all month.
Who knows where he got that aloof comment from but I can’t put much stock in his opinions.
Cerrone has always catered to his base. Whatever most of the readers are feeling is what he types. Something that unfortunately many blogs seem to do.
Well I will say that Sandy (as bad as my opinion of him is) is not dumb enough to say what was said….
His Minions who seem to leak an awful lot under the guise of “TEAM SOURCE” do not seem bright enough to keep their opinions to themselves.
I’m sure someone like DePo doesn’t like a guy like Ike as he doesnt look good in a spreadsheet and I’m almost POSITIVE it was him and/or other head of the hydra that was pushing to send Ike down because Terry, (noted in quotes from Sandy at the time) and Hudgens are all on record as saying they felt Ike should work out his issues on the MLB squad, Sandy went with them which makes HIM undecided in the discussion which leaves DePo and Ricciardi as the only voices left that could be on the opposite side….
Thankfully Sandy went with his Manager and Hitting coach’s opinion instead of the rest of the Hydra because the Manager and Hitting coach were right!
So Metsie, what is your opinion of the fact that Ike lead NL 1B in PPA? Do you think that they were pissed off at him for his approach still? Seems like Ike is exactly what Sandy likes, not dislikes.
I think at the time the story came out they had not plugged in his numbers and were still pissed off over the fact a Manager and Coach won the day over thier spreadsheert!
As far as WHY he got those numbers well you forget just because you saw a lot of pitches doesn’t always mean he took the right ones….
Early in the season when he wasn’t swinging wildly he was taking pitches he shouldn’t have…
Second half he took many more pitches and walked 35 times in 289PA where in the first half he walked 26 times in 295PA.
As for him leading the rest of the MLB 1Bs he may be what Sandy likes…but as I already suggested, Sandy wasn’t the source of that story and it did not matter WHAT his PPA was by the end of the year…Sandy may like high PPPA but he was not going to like it more or think less of the 32 HRs that came with it.
Like I said the knocks on Ike were not from Sandy, Sandy just didn’t handle it better as he should have.
It’s the Math Professors that didn’t like Ike an opinion they formed early in the season and never got off of….
Thank god they didn’t get thier way.
Metsie that would be fine if he didn’t lead the NL in PPA in the first half too. Again, I think the entire story was bogus to start with and most likely the Mets PR which has a history of botching things just botched another one. There was no advantage to any Mets official leaking a story about Davis so most likely it either wasn’t true or was just someone running off at the mouth.
Did he leadthe league in OBP which is the holy grail of spreadsheet GMing?
They dismissed his PPPA because it didn’t jive with what they expect to get from it so it must not be relevant to thier equation.
He took a lot of pitches but didn’t walk….
Tells you everything about thier PHILOSOPHY on PPPA doesn’t it?
Doesn’t tell me anything because I am not in on their discussions. All any of us are doing is assuming what metrics they hold dear.
Also:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/1b/league/nl/sort/walksPerPlateAppearance/type/sabermetric/order/true
Doesn’t look like they would dislike him too much because he doesn’t walk either. Round and round we go.
Again, it appears to me that Ike Davis is exactly the type of player they do like.
Not if your OBP obsessed he isn’t thier type of player….
And these are the guys who INVENTED OBP obsession remember….
Their whole reason for liking PPPA is because they think it gets you that High OBP!
MORE WALKS!
So they shifted thier thinking from previous since everyone caught onto OBP they tried to find an undervalued metric that no one else knows about to find the guys they think will get those walks as opposed to just identifying who walked more as they did before looking at OBP.
Ugh, again he lead 1B in Walks per PA. The reason for his low OBP was his poor BA.
AndAIN they don’t look at counting stats they look at OBP and assume the Walks are high!
Since it wasn’t it really doesn’t matter that he walked more because the OBP wasn’t in thier parameters for GOOD!
and I bet NO HR hitter ever is in thier books….
At least not DePos…who was the last Oakland player to lead the league in HRs or even be on the leaderboard?
I bet it was before DePo got there…
We had better hope d’Arnaud gets here quickly, can fill the #3 hitting hole so we can put Wright between Ike and Duda….
As I said since May of last year….
This team needs a REAL Power hitting OFer that bats righty (Switch hitting is fine too) that can balance out the lineup.
It’s not a matter of Ike hitting Lefties it’s a matter of the guy behind him being able to score him if he TAKES the low outside crap they throw him by laying off those pitches.
Even if Ike walks more by taking the crap it amounts to nothing but good stats if the guy behind him can’t drive him in…And since Duda is most likely to hit behind him and he bats lefty too all that will result is good numbers for Ike and still no runs on the board to stop them from pitching around him and givng him nothing to hit.
and TRS I don’t see how your lineup solves anything…
“Tejada, Murphy, Davis, Wright, Duda, Buck, Kirk, RF of the day?”
You still have two lefties back to back in Murphy and Davis…
Just another reason why I would have liked to have gotten Victorino…
Put him leadoff, Bat Tejada second, Murphy third, Wright,Davis, Catcher, Duda and whatever your RH Platoon RFer is vs Lefties.
Because Murphy doesn’t seem to have the dramatic splits of a LH. I wasn’t splitting Ike and Davis up just because they write and bat with their LH. It’s because they both have dramatic splits.
But your forgetting the number 1 reason WHY alternating between L & R is so important…It certainly isn’t as many fans think that it’s just done for something that MIGHT happen in the late innings of a game where a LHP is brought into face a LHB.
EVERY pitcher (RH or LH) has a certain way they must work vs RHB that differs from how they pitch to LHB. Thats partly due to how each side sees his pitches and how and where those pitches have to be thrown to get that particular side of the plate batter out.
And it usually doesn’t matter who the batter is, the Pitcher has the same ZONES and Strategy for all LHBs or RHBs he faces.
By putting two LHBs together you are essentially giving the Pitcher the chance to get into his LHB batter mode groove and get a feel for what he needs to do vs them.
So by the time he gets to the second LHB he is already in the groove and has a feel for the pitches he needs to make vs LHBs.
By splitting LHB and RHB you are forcing the Pitcher to constantly change his approach and locations to pitch to the batters meaning more likely to lose the feel vs one side or the other and give up the hits.
It’s a big part of the lefty righty matchup than many who subscribe to that often overlook.
For Batters there is no difference in thier approach. They don’t hit the ball any differently when it is a RHP than they do if it is a LHP. Their swing doesn’t change. Only how they see the ball changes and the ultimate outcome is more based on the Pitcher’s ability to throw his pitches to the locations where the eyes can fool the batter which is why many of them are vulnerable to the low outside pitch vs LHP because it looks like a strike right up till it goes through the zone and dies outside.
Sorry, I don’t think there is that much of a disadvantage having two RH or two LH back to back if one of those has even splits.
Maybe not t the first guy in line but most definitly the second….
All that time where we had Ike and Duda back to back is what put Duda in the dumps and doubting his abaility which seems to be Duda’s biggest issue.
He struggled, made adjustments he shouldn’t have made and it spiraled out of control.
He does not necessarily need a RH bat to protect him. Most starters are righty, and they could pitch around Ike to face a righty bat behind him. Since more than 2/3 if the starters they face would be righty a solid lefty bat would actually provide more protection. A real good all-around bat would be the best protection.
as a mets fan since april 1962 listening on a transistor radio all this david wright stuff bothers me i am so glad he is a met for another 7-8 years. he is a gamer who gives it everything he has all the time. i would have had a hard staying with the mets after 50 years if they did not sign him
i would have had a hard staying with the mets after 50 years if they did not sign him”
Really??? so after watching better players like seaver, kooz, gooden, cone, straw, piazza, reyes, beltran all better players than him leave and you would’ve had a hard time being a met fan if he had left?? Amazing… Everyday you read stuff that just make you wonder..
Reyes… LOL. Bias much?
LMAO
Put those guys in a list and Wright ranks at the VERY BOTTOM…sorry pal…although it would’ve pained me to see DavidDimples go….it was 10x more painful seeing Straw and Doc and Cone and Elster ( my 2nd favorite met ss of all time ) in Yankee uniforms in the 90′s…
Hmm, you do intrigue me. I would put Reyes at the bottom but where would I put Wright?
Seaver, Gooden, Straw, Piazza, Koozman, Wright, Cone (I admit that one was tough, I loved Cone), Beltran, Reyes. Also, I think Kooz most likely should be higher on the list but it was so far before my time that I got my personals in Gooden, Straw and our future HOF Piazza ahead of him. As for the modern day guys, I think that I would go Wright, Beltran, Reyes but could understand an argument for Beltran being ahead of Wright, certainly not Reyes.
Sorry but Beltran has to go before Wright on that list.
This much is obvious when you compare the two….
I can understand that argument. I just don’t agree.
Well what are you basing it on? Seems to be longevity and if thats the case where is Kranpool?
Does Payson’s Pet go before Cleon Jones too?
Beltran has a pretty good shot at the Hall if he doesn’t just flat out fail the rest of his career…
Wright still has some work to do to get as close as Beltran is…..
And by that distinction I put Beltran ahead of Wright on any list of Met Greatest….
Beltran is one of the best CF’s in this era….did it clean too!
Yeah, longevity has some pull for sure.
Beltran’s career with the Mets: .280 .369 .500 .869
Wright’s career with the Mets: .301 .381 .506 .887
Obviously defense plays a large role in Beltran’s favor. I will say that Beltran is the best CF in Mets history (Of course considering that Mays wasn’t Mays while with the Mets). But I give Wright a statistical advantage over Beltran while with the Mets.
As far as other counting stats:
Wright 204 HR, 166 SB, 818 RBI, 322 2B in 5453 PA
Beltran 149 HR, 100 SB, 559 RBI, 208 2B in 3640 PA
As I said, you can make a case either way.
Well if you wanted to take the longevity out of the equation (and I know you don’t feel the need to I Understand that)
Just divide those numbers on a per season played basis or even PA to see why Beltran gets the edge in my book….
Wright has similar numbers there but with 5453 PA as a Met
Beltran has just 3640 PA as a Met
How do those counting stats look now that you know that?
I could agree that they are 1 and 2 together with Beltran slightly ahead and a chance for Wright to jump ahead of him in the next 8 years….
But he needs to be more like 2007 and 2008 than he has been lately.
Well without digging into it too much:
Per Plate Appearance
Wright on the Left, Beltran on right:
HR: .0374 .0409
SB: .0304 .0274
RBI: .1500 .1536
2B: .0591 .0570
Looks pretty even to me.
Again, longevity aside you can make a case either way. For me adding in the longevity pushes Wright over the top.
Yeah looks even if you like doubles more than HRs…LOL
that 2% lead on doubles Wright has is well offset by the 3% of Beltran hits being hit out of the park.
What do the Walk number look like which is where Beltran should have the greatest edge….(You don’t have to post it this is not a research request just asking you to look if your actually interested….)
Like I said they are close but Beltran gets the edge with me based on his Per PA efficiency.
Metsie, that would be 19 more HR total over those extra AB’s for Beltran.
204 to 223 again there’s just not enough there to make up for the longevity in my mind. Also, keep in mind the difference in BA.
But that 19 Hrs more is another guys entire seasons worth….
And Wright would only have 11 More Doubles meaning 11 of those 19 HRs were what would be Doubles for Wright.
Moving to RBI
Beltran 838 Wright 818
Again those HRs would seem to be the key difference…Beltran drove himself in where Wright left it to others.
They are close merely because of the longevity making wright on the quick look have higher counts…
But when you break them down to a Per PA perspective and project equal PA Beltran pulls ahead in my opinion….
And it’s no coincidence that Wright declined while Beltran was not there….
Ike has alleviated SOME of that which resulted in last years great turnaround.
Does he rank at the bottom of This list? Because this is the only list we should be concerning ourselves in a conversation of who should stay and who should go since this is whatwe have available to play in baseball games…..
http://mets.mlb.com/team/roster_active.jsp?c_id=nym
I get your problem with Wright and I believe it has more to do with Reyes than Wright…
But I have to stay true to my feelings I didn’t want reyes to go for the same reason I didn’t want Wright to go…
I want to KEEP the best players and purge the crap….
If and when Wright becomes the worst player on this team, I will then join you in asking for his head….
But he is FAR from that at this point and while it was dumb to let Reyes go it’s even dumber to make te same dumb mistake twice!
How is that BIAS? If we go based only on record for the mets, in less games than wright who holds more records for the franchise? Thank you…. Reason i use that is because of the big deal you guys made for the HITS record REyes would’ve broken by july last year had your beloved GM sign him. again, it’s my opinion that reyes was better and contributed more than wright has ever had, all those mention were far better players and left, i am still a met, and this man who’s allegedly a 50 year mets fan was gonna have a hard time being a met if MR Choke wasn’t sign? You’ve got to be kidding me….
I am not going to break my New Years resolution but Alex I am sorry if you criticize someone for liking Wright and then say Reyes was better then you are what you preach against. Have fun, and back to baseball.
How was i criticizing the guy???? Look, i’ve had favorites players leave all the time, yet i am still a met fan as we all should, this stuff about wright is just disturbing.. We’ve seen HOF’s and better players leave, and this fan for 50 years was gonna probably be upset if he went? At no point i criticize him, just question his loyalness to the team…
Well Alex it is a bit of Bias merely for the fact you seem to be judging Wright’s performance based on parameters you didn’t agree with when it was Reyes they were used for…
How can you say those parameters were wrong when used for Reyes but are now correct to use in Wrights case?
Those parameters used were WRONG when it was Reyes we were talking about and they are STILL wrong when used to judge Wright….
as they say TWO wrongs don’t make one WRIGHT!
If you want to judge Wright based on the same parameters as Reyes then truth is you want BOTH gone. Is that really what you wanted?
I don’t believe tha’s what your saying at all your just being a bit vindictive and trying to use an idiots argument for dumping Reyes against him with a player he happens to like thats all….
So yes there is a bit of Bias there….
Truth is it was wrong to let Reyes go for the reasons they did and it’s STILL dumb to use the same dumb reasoning when it’s Wright thats at issue….
Both were/are the best players on this team and we need to stop looking for REASONS to get rid of our best players regardless of thier ethnicity and start looking to get rid of the guys who aren’t even half as good as either of them but are still lurking around on our roster and starting baseball games because thats all we have.
please do not question my loyalty.people in my town know me as mr. met. i have atatoo of the mets insignia with the world championship years and room for more years. i like david wright because he plays baseball with hustle and determination. as of now i rank tom seaver as the best met.strawberry , gooden were very good but did not use their god-given talent to the fullest. beltran played his best baseball for other teams. you saw what reyes did for the marlins; not much. couple other players i liked were mookie wilson, wally backman,cleon jones,jerry koosman and old timers al jackson,choo-choo coleman,ed kranepool
“beltran played his best baseball for other teams. ”
were u completely brain-dead during the 06-09 years?
Beltran was putting up HOF numbers til he got hurt in 09…which lingered into 2010…then he came back and was putting up great numbers again in 2011
you saw what reyes did for the marlins….
so basically, reyes played his best ball for the mets….but that argument doesnt count when its not in your favor…
sorry home-boy…but wright is at the bottom of that list…to me, Wright and Reyes are neck and neck and Beltran is above both of them.
Wright in no universe is messing with Beltran defensively, and Beltran has all the tools Wright has at the plate and is a better baserunner…not to mention his leadership…when Beltran and Wright were both in the same clubhouse, everyone on the team pointed to Beltran being the leader…when he goes to SF, he instantly becomes the leader….he goes to St. Louis, and again is a leader…
Wright is a great side-piece, please never put him in the same sentence, page, chapter, book or library as Carlos Beltran. His mole is more intimidating at the plate than David’s Dimples
You didnt need to say anything except this. Alderson promised a righthanded power bat in the outfield. Where is it?
Your inability to openly criticize Alderson directly made you create a strawman argument.
Why am I not surprised?
he promised it? really? when? did he pinky swear?
He double dog swore it.
You haven’t responded to my thoughts on Davis, Maniac. About how it’s likely that Alderson does in fact love him some Davis and he is the prototypical guy that Alderson is looking for. The very stat that Alderson mentioned is one that Ike lead all 1B in, yet you think he doesn’t like him because of his stats?
Lets not forget,the offseason isn’t over… Could something big happen? We don’t know. Ike,I hope will be a mainstay in this line-up for a long time. He deserves some protection in the lineup to get the best out of him!