All it really means is that one cannot look to curves to help project the success rate of any one player. It depends upon the individual. Unfortunately, there were so many times when one was predicted to have a decent career based on comparision to similar players during the minor league which I think is a poor way of evaluating talent. Lastings Milledge was on a curve upward but it did not take into account his attitude problem.

Also, one mistake a lot of prospect rankers often make – BA at the forefront – is overrating fresh talents out of the draft, that have dominated the amateur ranks based on some special tool (or upside for a special tool) but then fail to develop it. Sure, upside counts a lot. But actually showing it on a pro baseball field counts a lot more. A high-upside pitcher who has done well in Double A is a lot more likely to be successful than a pitcher with a similar arsenal but right out of High School.

This somewhat similar to the Wilmer Flores phenomenon.
Flores was highly touted as a 17-year-old in Rookie Ball and received plenty of hype.
After several years of middling performance, he finally breaks out in 2012 – barely age 21 – and hits well in Double A. Yet, he now suffers from the reverse “overexposure” effects and the defensive questions – that were valid 4-5 years ago as well – are now the dominating factor in his assessment.

But what is interesting is that most of the top ten who are pitchers have a high failure rate when coming to the majors. Position players do much better and more than half, according to the author’s own findings, have made it with a good portion actually becoming top stars in the majors as well. Not a comment on our guys, including Wheeler, but rather just an interesting read if one goes past the advanced explanation of the methodology.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

Mets seem to have not given up on him, since for now, he is still on the 40 man, and will probably be manning 2B at Vegas. He probably has 1 more shot at a future with the Mets, but he better crush it in ST (and not get hurt!). Otherwise, if you see him at all, it will be as one of those late bloomer types on another team.

I do like Verret but with the other young arms already in place, there’s really only room for one Dillon Gee type pitcher.