Jan
19
2013

MMO Mailbag: Wheeler vs. Harvey

zack wheeler

I received an email from Justin after I posted about which Mets prospects will make their debut in 2013 and what the odds were.

Justin asks…

I liked your post about the 2013 Debuts and was wondering if we could see Wheeler or anyone else hit the ground running the same way Matt Harvey did last season. What do you think Wheeler will do when he finally arrives and will he be as good or even better than Harvey?

Joe D. replies…

First of all, it’s important to note that what Matt Harvey did after he was promoted to the Mets was not exactly the kind of debut you see all the time. He tossed 5.1 shutout innings and his eleven strikeouts set a new Mets’ record for a major league debut, smashing Seaver’s previous mark of eight K’s set in 1967.

Harvey’s ten starts as whole were nothing short of remarkable. His 2.73 ERA ranked third all time for a Mets rookie season behind only Jim McAndrew (2.28, 1968) and Dwight Gooden (2.60 in 1984). Harvey’s 10.6 K/9 was the second highest mark in Mets history, trailing only Dwight Gooden who posted an 11.4 K/9 in 1984.

Now lets get back to Zack Wheeler. Not only does this promising young right-hander have enough pressure by having to prove he was worth trading Carlos Beltran for, or that he must live up to the lofty expectations Sandy Alderson placed on him as the poster boy for a future Mets utopia that begins in 2014, but on top of all that he has to follow-up a spectacular debut by Matt Harvey. I wouldn’t wish that kind of pressure on my worst enemy.

I took a look at some other MLB debuts by top prospects and found that Clayton Kershaw debuted with a 4.26 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, Justin Verlander broke in with a 7.15 ERA, Matt Latos checked in with a 4.62 ERA, and in his first full season David Price posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 starts. All four of them were just as highly regarded (if not more) as Zack Wheeler is now. Get the picture?

I’m not saying Wheeler won’t come in and dazzle – nobody can predict what the future will hold. All I’m saying is that what Harvey did last season was the exception and not the rule.

Wheeler will have his work cut out for him by trying to meet the enormous expectations he already has on his shoulders and doesn’t need or deserve anymore added pressure.

Let’s just give the kid a break and let him do his best whatever his best ends up being. He’s 22 and no matter what happens in 2013 – good or bad – I’m pretty certain that it won’t define the rest of his career. He’s a tremendous prospect with electric stuff and every scout who has seen him loves him. For now, that’s good enough for me.

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About the Author: Joe DeCaro

I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.

25 Comments + Add Comment

  • With the exception of the comment that Alderson has placed undo expectations on a guy that frankly all of MLB has placed very high expectations on, I agree. I realize that not all share my view but I am really excited about the number and quality of live young arms the Mets have stockpiled over the last couple years.

    Some of these guys will make it, some not and some others may be traded for missing pieces but while some love to dwell on what we are missing I’m pretty happy with what we have for the near future.

    • ‘With the exception of the comment that Alderson has placed undo expectations on a guy that frankly all of MLB has placed very high expectations on, I agree.’

      Agree with your agree – :-)

      I can’t say that I’ve heard the FO over hyping Wheeler to any great extent. Not exactly sure what that comment meant. Not unless it’s just by virtue of who he was traded for – and some demanding he be as good as Beltran is after 15 years, in Wheeler’s debut.

    • “Some of these guys will make it, some not and some others may be traded for missing pieces but while some love to dwell on what we are missing I’m pretty happy with what we have for the near future.”

      Well said Boomer……to many dwell on the woulda, coulda, shoulda…….without taking a good look at what’s being built to provide sustainable winning.

  • Excellent job in putting these two players and their career paths into perspective. I just don’t think that the Wheeler/Beltran trade will affect or put pressures on Wheeler at all. This was not a trade between 2 players at the same juncture in their careers where everyone will be monitoring how each plays with their new team to measure the trade. This was a prospect for a rental. And there’s no way Beltran was gonna be a Met the next year even if he wasn’t traded. So I really don’t think the trade will affect Wheeler one way or the other.

  • Terry Collins said on SNY’s Mets Hot Stove Report that one thing he could do is put Harvey’s and Wheeler’s lockers next to each other in Spring Training so Zack can pick Matt’s brain about Major League camp and preparation. I would love to be a fly on the wall listening to that conversation!

    • I was watching MLB network the other night. They were doing a segment on who to keep an eye on in 2013. I think #4 on the list was Matt Harvey. One of them (Mitch Williams? can’t remember) actually compared him to Clemens when he came up. Same body type, same bull dog demeanor, same confidence, same pattern of attacking hitters. High praise indeed. If Harvey’s career mirrors Clemens (sans steroids) that will be some kind of fun to watch.

      • I live in Boston and had the pleasure of watching a young Roger Clemens, when he was still just a human. When he was on it was a thing of beauty.

        I was even at this game.

        http://nesn.com/2011/08/relive-the-moment-roger-clemens-strikes-out-twenty/

        Some moment you never forget.

        • Thing is, I’m sure Clemens would have had a HOF career w/o any ‘help’.

          • Yep.

            Have a great day all.

          • Clemens at ages 30 thru 33 was washed up and down right mediocre. His career was revitalized by PED’s. I think his career would have fizzled out like Scott Kazmir’s if he did not take PED’s.

      • Harvey is more mature at his age than Clemens was at 40.

        I am glad we got Harvey and never signed Clemens.

        Actually we should not start a rivalry between Harvey and Wheeler but
        by extension its Omar vs. Sandy.

  • My question would be, how much time did those pitchers you’ve mentioned spend developing In the minors?

    I haven’t a clue, but I know Clayton was up at 20 right? I think Price came up pretty quick too. Perhaps they had to do a lot of their development in the majors and that might account for the mediocre beginnings.

    Wheeler has spent 3 seasons steadily rising up the levels. Guys like Trevor Bauer had only a few starts at each level and their ML debuts suffered for it. Harvey spent half seasons from A+ to AAA, and that time most likely helped him big time.

    • Harvey was a very polished college pitcher and a great one. Wheeler was a high school kid. Apples and oranges. You want them on the same path? It don’t work that way.

  • It’s great to have both around.
    Not many other major league teams – if any – currently have a talented duo of high upside young arms like these two. Maybe one of them will finally give the Mets a true longterm frontline power RHSP – over 20 years since trading David Cone and with all due respect to RA Dickey who was a special pitcher in his own right – but not the prototype longterm frontline SP.

    Pressure is immense for either one. Both are regarded as potential franchise saviors. However, guess what – pitching in the majors is quite a bit of pressure as it is.

  • On Friday with Francesa, I couldn’t believe he comes out of nowhere and said if he doesn’t sign a fifth starter that Wheeler will get a shot to make the rotation out of spring training. I dont see the benefit in making comments like that when he knows there’s no chance for that happening. It’s unfair to Wheeler who now goes into camp with false expectations, more pressure and having to confront reporters who will assuredly confront him about that statement. He needs to think before he speaks.

    • Wheeler’s not stupid.

      haha he knows the game. He knows the game better than ALL of us because he PLAYS it. He knows he has no shot of making the Team unless injuries like hell occured.

      Please stop making these prospects out to be oblivious fools.. they know more about their team’s plans going forward than anyone

  • I probably wont attend any games until the second half and only to get a glimpse of Wheeler and Darnaud. Those two are about the only things worth watching this season along with the further development of Harvey. I never thought we could be as bad as the Marlins on the field, but I do believe we are. 2013 is all about the kids as far as I’m concerned. I agree with your take on Wheeler and Harvey. I saw Seaver, Matlack, Gooden, Cone all debut and Harvey ranked right op there with all of them.

  • Which one has a better career harvey or wheeler?

  • By the time a young pitcher gets to the major leagues his “stuff” is often good enough to merit staying. Then there is his command/control. Very often a young pitcher can get by in the minor leagues with just “his stuff” but major league hitters eat up pitchers whose put the ball down the middle. The real good young pitchers extend and elevate the strike zone but the most important elements a young pitching stud can have is his confidence/composure. No matter how good the guy is…he is gonna get lit up every so often and it is how he responds that makes the difference. Matt Harvey is the latest Met pitcher to show this confidence/composure from day one.

    I was at the home opener at Shea in 1968 and saw Jerry Koosman, a rookie open a game against the Giants by loading the bases with no outs and then proceed to calmly strike out Mays, McCovey and retire Jim Ray Hart on a pop out to third base if I remember correctly. The Shea crowd was stunned and I knew from that day that we had an outstanding 1-2 punch
    on the mound.

    As good as Matt Harvey has shown…..the experts have stated that Zack Wheeler has an even higher ceiling as a prospect. These two guys are the future for the Mets, Personally, I can’t wait to see Wheeler in spring training and then a bit later on this season!

  • Santana’s stuff 8 years ago made him the best pitcher in baseball. His mentality multiplied his stuff as well and that fire he brought to the mound is still there today. It enables him to go out there with stuff no where near the equivilant to the mussels he threw back in his twins days. He’s a fierce competitor. Not many have that fire.

    Clemens had it. Pedro had it. Schilling had it too. Guys who despite loosing their best stuff had a fire and will to compete and win.

    I believe Harvey has shown that mentality. We all knew he had the stuff, but when he made he bigs, he brought it to another level. That’s why people have been so excited about his since his debut.

    Wheeler has the stuff, but we haven’t seen his mentality yet. There’s just a certain way some guys separate themselves from the rest. Does he have that killer instinct Harvey possesses and guys like Pelfrey just don’t. Pelfrey had the stuff, but always lacked that killer instinct.

  • Most young prospects as highly regarded as Wheeler have pressure to succeed. Wheeler does have more than some as this article points out, I hope he is not rushed, meaning if he is not having that good a season in triple A and needs to figure things out more that they can wait until September to bring him up. Of course I want to see him dominate triple A and force his way to the team late June early July.

    • They are handling him pretty good. I would have liked to see him spend more time in AA but I dont have a problem with the Buffalo promotion. The only thing that worries me is that fans will start forcing the issue and he’s promoted to the majors to appease them for the PR value. I dont think they are that shallow, but it is a concern with Wilpon as owner.

  • It also needs to be pointed out….

    AS GOOD as Harvey’s debut was last season it would have been even BETTER if they had not made the dumb move of asking him to throw more Changeups and just let him pitch his game!

    He had a great first outing and then the PHILOSOPHERS that run this team tried to make him go against what he did and throw a changeup most likely do to something that came out of an Excel document and he had two bad starts that HURT his numbers because of that….

    When they stopped messing with him he pitched great again.

    Lets hope they learned thier lesson when it’s Wheeler that comes up.
    Though I tend to doubt they learned a thing as they seem to think they are the smartest people on the planet…(goes for many of thier boosters too!)

  • You’re right, they should have let him go with his bread and butter. Spring Training or side sessions are for working on or learning new pitches. Young pitching is the name of the game. It’s the future of baseball. Kids are being steered to the mound at a young age.

    In ten years, the game won’t have as much big boppers. It’ll be dominated by young power pitchers. No hitters will continue to climb. The Mets are already headed there with at least 10 young power arms with legit upside throughout the minors.

    Pretty soon, they’ll be in great shape. Hopefully, they’ll learn these lessons from Harvey about trying to shove pitch selection down his throat. Develop them in the minors, but once they hit that ML mound, the development needs to be done during the spring so they don’t have added pressure during the season. Why complicate an already complicated and pressure packed situation?

  • Some players,young and old,thrive off of that pressure. Looking forward to seeing Zack in Flushing this year with d’Arnaud!

NL East Standings

TeamWLPct.GB
Braves4128.594 -
Nationals3434.5006.5
Phillies3337.4718.5
Mets2539.39113.5
Marlins2147.30919.5

Last updated: 06/16/2013

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