4
2013
MMO Mailbag: Trading For Promising Outfielders?
An article by 
Andrew asks:
I know there is no way the Marlins would trade Stanton to us, but I see a few other solid young outfielders that could help the Mets in a big way. What about Mark Trumbo of the Angels, A.J. Pollock from the Dbacks, or Gary Brown from the Giants? Trumbo would be the most ideal, but the other two could be good pieces too. Brown could be an ideal leadoff hitter with speed which we lack. Thoughts?
Sean Kenny replies:
The Stanton debate will keep on raging until he is traded for a systems promising starter, two top prospects and possibly another position player – something I don’t see the Mets doing. However, the other options you propose are interesting at the least, and the likelihood of each varies from “could happen” to “Not tonight, boss”.
Mark Trumbo was held on to by the Angels, and despite the fact they signed Josh Hamilton to a lucrative contract Trumbo will see plenty of starts from the DH position as well as LF/RF. While the power in his bat in real – his outfield defense is pretty bad using both the eye test and advanced metrics. The soon-to-be 27 year old is hitting his peak in terms of offensive approach but defensively will always be a rough outfielder. However, the Angels seem reluctant to trade with Josh Hamilton’s injury history, an aging Albert Pujols and the fact that teams in the AL West can never have too much offense. The hypothetical return would be a young, cost controlled starter at the higher end of the spectrum and a settling package would seem to be a package of an MLB arm/MiLB arm and another prospect.
A.J. Pollock is an interesting name who I have rarely heard in trade rumors involving outfielders which is surprising despite his advanced prospect age (25) and the fact he can play all three outfield positions. Pollock has good size and moved through the Dbacks system in three years. The downside of Pollock is he profiles as a center fielder with his numbers, but may not with his range as he ages. If the Dbacks see him as a true CF, his value becomes much higher. The hypothetical return for Pollock could be a league-average MLB starter and an MiLB starter who may be at the A/AA level at the higher end of the spectrum, and the low end of the spectrum would involve an MLB reliever, but for a team like the Dbacks who aren’t competing right now it seems about restocking.
Gary Brown was the rumored player to be going to the Mets in the Beltran-Wheeler deal with the San Francisco Giants, and hindsight makes it seem like a good idea the Mets got their best pitching prospect as opposed to Gary Brown. Gary profiles as a true CF, with some pop, some solid defense and some great speed. While his CS rate has been respectable, 2012 saw him fall to around 66% success, which points towards lack of baserunning instincts, an anomaly of a season or the dreaded slowing down. Brown is still the fourth-best prospect as per John Sickels at MinorLeagueBall.com, so seeing the Giants trade their top offensive prospect would seem to require a power bat at 1B who was either MLB-ready or an MLB regular.
If I had to guess the likeliest of the three to be moved? Pollock. He offers a similar skillset to Adam Eaton and if the Dbacks aren’t competing this year or even next, an outfielder like Pollock offers more in a trade to build for the future. Least likely? Brown – top prospects who can play a true CF don’t get traded frequently.
About the Author: Sean Kenny
Sean Kenny is a student/writer currently attending school at the City College of New York. For more Mets news, notes and thoughts follow him on twitter @TheSeanKenny
58 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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I liked this post a lot. You see this is what my gripe is with this front office, not that they dont go after the Josh Hamiltons and Justin Uptons of the world, but that there is no real attempt at pursuing players like this that wont cost top prospects or dollars. Personally I would prefer them like this:
1. Pollock, 2. Brown, 3. Trumbo
One we have no idea if they are going for these type players.
Two ” that wont cost top prospects” . How in the world are you going to get these guys without trading top prospects?
‘How in the world are you going to get these guys without trading top prospects?’
Yeah, pretty much we’re not. If it were that easy, I’d be looking to fleece Loria and get Stanton for lower prospects.
Of course there’s always that one GM….look at the package we gave up for Johan. None of those guys were top prospects or former top prospects.
There’s no fleecing of Loria on this one IMO. After listening to MLBN Radio and one saying 4/5 top prospects including your #1 and a filler? No way.
How did you ever become a blogger? You have no imagination, don’t know how to speculate, and can’t have a discussion about anything hypothetical. lol
LOL, I know I am too much of a realist. That’s what everyone of my critics say… right?
Let me pick your mind, how might we trade for those guys without using a top prospect?
Well to begin, neither Pollock or Brown are top prospects so why would they require top prospects to get them?
Second, Giants just made an investment in Angel Pagan which makes Brown expendable and it’s no secret they have tried to trade him before.
Third, Arizona has has an outfield glut and is starved for a shortstop prospect or starter/reliever prospect. Pollock is probably their sixth ranked outfielder although he’d be number one on the Mets. I bet they’d jump at Evans and Robles or Mateo.
Trumbo shouldn’t be in the convo for the reasons Kenny cited which I agree with.
BTW see how nice it is to hypothesize? You really need to loosen up a bit because you seem to like to quell debate rather than encourage it which to me would suggest that blogging isn’t your forte. lol
You couldn’t be more wrong.
TRS is the king of trade proposals over at the TRDM.
Yeah but I try to at least make them rational instead of trade Duda, Murphy and Parnell for Upton…. Get it Dun Sandy.
Oh I love to hypothesize. I don’t take issue with the notion of trading for one of these. Just the fact that we could do it without also trading one of our top players, which pending I am fine with. If you told me we could get one of these guys for Flores? I am full of fun. It’s just saying lets go get one of these guys without trading a top prospect…
But why would you trade Wheeler or D’Arnaud for either Pollock or Brown? Who is even suggesting that? Anyone with just an iota of minor league knowledge and prospects know exactly what Brown and Pollock are worth, and you won’t need to part with a top prospect for either. I have not seen once a ridiculous trade hypothetical here unlike at Metsblog where they make front page over there. Plus I cant recall one time where you suggested a hypo here, rather you always seem to shut down anything that smells hypothetical. Especially when it’s Alex or Bayonne who usually have some good ones.
Maybe we need to define top prospect because to me I still consider Flores, Fulmer, Synder, and others as top Mets prospects. I am not saying at all that I wouldn’t trade one of them for Brown. I am saying that when I read ” players like this that wont cost top prospects” I think of at least top 5 prospects and I don’t think you are getting a top 5 for a guy not in the top 5. Especially considering Arizona’s top 10 is much higher rated than our top 10.
Yes you may consider them top prospects but you doseem to back off that whenever someone suggests trading them for a guy you all INSIST requires a top prospect to get a deal done and always run to Wheeler because you think OVERPAYING is reasonable and giving equal value in multiples is not enough….
Like I said you give a Duda in a deal that reduces the prospect price because he is already an MLB player, is as cheap and under control as any prospect is and is ready to help the team that gets him right away!
It’s just that your lack of faith in him HERE makes you think no one else likes him….
Maybe they don’t like him as a LFer, but put him at 1B and he could be a BIG PIECE if he can just start focusing on his Bat more than his glove and Quicksand feet in the OF…
If Duda had premium value he wouldn’t still be here.
You see THATS your issue right there!
It’s always about PREMIUM or it’s NOTHING!
Like there are no Average or Above average players that could solve a problem for us as well as Duda could solve a problem for them?
It’s either we make a trade for a BA Lister or it’s not a deal worth making and the player we have is WORTHLESS if he doesn’t get you a BA lister….
Either he gets you the moon or he is worthless….
This is the thinking that has stopped us from making SMART TRADES that don’t require one side or the other being raped and merely find fits where a player we have improves a need for them and in return they have a player of EQUAL value who fills a need better than all these MiL contract scrubs we will be forced to play as MLB starters this year….
Brown is still considered the Giants #4 prospect so I don’t think they are going to dump him for a non top prospect. You could be right on Pollock but even he is ranked as their #7 prospect in a very deep farm.
You cant use team rankings! Ugh! The #1 top prospect in a 30 ranked system is worth less than a #10 prospect in a number one ranked system. Are you kidding me with those team rankings? lol Maybe you should backoff on this one.
Nah, I will back off because I have to go work. LOL. However, I think our issue is different definitions of top prospects. When I read ” players like this that wont cost top prospects” I imagine the Mets top prospects. I don’t think we can trade another team’s top prospects. So I guess if the guy is implying it won’t cost us Wheeler or TDA? I agree. It won’t cost us a top 5 in our system? Disagree.
Well one established MLB talent is worth at least two Prospects….
Brooks was the piece that got you Carter not the other guys….
The problem here is we have not gotten full value when we traded those types of Players…
Reyes we didn’t trade at all
K-Rod got nothing not even ONE prospect…
Maybe you can argue that we got enough back for Beltran but another kid even just an OF body to replace Beltran should have been added. Most deals include a body to replace the position of the MLB player your trading….
Want an example look no further than the Dickey deal where we had to give up Thole and Nickeas because they traded away two Catchers and needed at least a Backup option out of the deal. Nickeas is hardly what you call a prospect.
I know many here feel differently but the truth is Prospects are not worth MORE than an established and proven MLB player. I don’t care how high on BA’s list they are rated either.
Cause one Injury, One bad season and that kid is deemed AAAA and worthless.
Even the thing you value (his ranking) goes away if either of those things happen and they happen quite a lot! (See Havens and F-Mart as prime examples)
Unfortunatly our FO over values kids and money more than play on an MLB field…
And as a result is not getting the windfall everyone thinks they should get by trading solid PROVEN MLB players….
Maybe you don’t believe a GM will trade your kids for his…Or believe our Kids alone are not enough to get it done….Yet you still believe it’s good for us to get back the same kind of value when we are the ones sending out MLB talent….
Stop undervaluing our kids and MLB players and you will find there are a LOT of guys (OFers especially) we can trade for who are young and can improve this team provided your list of kids isn’t limited to names high on BA’s list and look for guys who do well on your own scouting department’s list!
Instead of just contacting teams who have a plethora of BA listed kids go find one who is desperate for a Young 3B (Flores) and will trade a similar OF prospect to get him.
Then maybe we won’t be forced to trade Wheelers and Harveys (players we need) to fill the holes we have.
OK Metsie, how might the Mets trade for one of those 3 players without using a top prospect which is what the poster said. That means no trading of Flores either.
” but that there is no real attempt at pursuing players like this that wont cost top prospects or dollars.”
How exactly would we get any of those 3 without trading a top prospect?
By trading away MLB talent I thought I was quite clear on that….
A guy like Murphy who spent time on the Batting Title leaderboard last season…
By trading a Duda who many teams have said they fear him MORE than Davis!
Just because you guys don’t think much of those players does not mean the rest of the league agrees with you….
And again if Snydergaard was good enough to be the SECOND PROSPECT in a trade for a Cy Young Pitcher he himself should be one of the PROSPECTS you can give away without killing your farm.
Sandy even said he has lots of trade chips in A and AA ball to trade with…
So let him show us who he meant when he said that!
MLB player like Duda or Murphy (who I will admit I would rather keep) equals any BA lister in AA or AAA!
Because they are KNOWN MLB ready and get paid as much as any Kid will when he comes up!
OK so Duda or Murphy will bring back as much in a trade as a top prospect? Got it.
By themselves maybe not but it sure s enough to make our lesser prospects enough to get what you seemigly can’t get past them getting by themselves in a deal….
You seem to rate each deal as a one on one swap when Sandy is about the only idiot who makes such short sighted deals…
Because he doesn’t value his players and kids as much as he values everyone elses….
And many people here suffer from the same affliction…
They put on a Met Uni and thier value decreases to a third of what they are worth to you guys.
There’s an awful lot of outfielders besides Trumbo, Pollock and Brown, major leaguers and MLB ready prospects, that Alderson should be actively pursuing right now, to see who he can get with the best deal. Consider:
Emilio Bonifacio or Rajai Davis from Toronto.
Coco Crisp from the A’s (OK, maybe his $7 million for 2013 is more than they want to spend)
Alejandro De Aza from the ChiSox
Eric Young Jr. from the Rockies
Khris Davis from the Brewers
Leonys Martin from Texas
Kole Calhoun from the Angels
Francisco Peguero from the Giants (great speed but SBs were down in 2012 – leg problem?)
Jerry Sands from the Pirates
Tony Campana frm the Cubbies
With a list like that if Alderson can’t get a good starting outfielder, he should hang ‘em up.
And I still feel that he should make a run at Giancarlo Stanton with a package like Syndergaard, Murphy or Flores, Mejia or Familia, Tapia or Montero, and Vaughn or Nimmo.
How about signing Dariel Alvarez.. and trading Duda/Lutz, Ad-Rod for Brown?
Brown could be our leadoff hitter within a year.
Brown
Tejada
Wright
Davis
Alvarez
d’Arnaud
Murphy
Left Field
Pitcher
Sorry Lotus but why in the world would the Giants trade a top OF for Duda, Lutz and ARod? What position do those guys even play?
Well they do need to replace some of the power they lost from Cabrera…Just not sure Duda has showed enough to get them to think he could be it.
As for Lutz have you seen Sandoval lately? He is an inujury just waiting to happen. And he is FA after 2014…
And they just LOVE pitching as an organization.
Throw in Flores and you might get close enough to talk and find what they would need in a Package…
As long as you tell them Wheeler is untouchable your good because they won’t trade for d’Arnaud when they already have Posey….
They might take Snydergaard to get the deal done and I would do that in a heartbeat!
Then the Dickey deal loks a lot better because it gets us the OFer we should have gotten in the first place and one thats a damn site better than Gose…
Flores and Synder for Brown… interesting but I think I would pass.
Flores AND Synder? Are you kidding? THAT is overpay to the bone. I wouldnt even trade Flores for Brown straight up. Brown has lost that luster he once had.. but he was never an AMAZING prospect like Synder and Flores have the potential to be.
Duda and Lutz for Brown is a great deal. At worst they get a 20 homer 260 average adequate defense at 1b and a injury-prone potential good bat at 3b in Lutz. At worst we get a complete bust prospect.
That’s why I said pass. Metsie came up with that one.
Yep it is but then again Im not the one who claims Flores is useless or that Brown being a #4 requires out TOP prospect here….
I Quote….
“Brown is still considered the Giants #4 prospect so I don’t think they are going to dump him for a non top prospect”
Flores isn’t our top 4 Prospect is he?
My proposal was in reaction to TRS’ original assumption that we didn’t have anything to get Brown with….
I threw a LOT of names out there and now you say we have too much to get him?
Jeez make up your minds here already we CAN get him or we Can’t?
Gose > Brown. Gose Double-A Season > Brown Double-A Season.
70 steals? Gold Glove Defense? Gose is better. Don’t judge him on his brief cup of coffee in the majors. Even Willie Mays struggled at first.
I have no prob with the acquisition side of your post but I don’t particularly like the Lineup…
Mostly the Tejada Wright back to back RHHs…
Perhaps put Murphy infront of Wright works, I don’t know enough about Alvarez to comment on the section after Davis but I would probably put d’Arnaud after Davis based on his 20-25 HR projections.
ideally the trade that makes the most sense is Flores for an equivalent level OF, simply due to positions he projects to play. Maybe find a team that has the reverse problem (too many OF and no 3B prospect close to ready)
On a more serious note, could you get Pollock for Familia/Mejia and two lower level guys? I honestly have no idea there. Brown I still think would cost too much right now.
At this point in time, I would make both Mejia and Familia available. Sadly, I sense the rest of baseball isnt high on either of them either.
I wanted both of them, and spin, being shopped for OF help.
I don’t agree with that. I think most people would look past Familia’s struggles last season because he has an electric arm, and he was pitching in a league where he was five years younger than the average player. He also didn’t start pitching until he was older, so most of his struggles could be due to inexperience and not due to ability.
He was also rated in the MLB’s top 100 prospects, so it’s not like everyone is down on him.
That’s too much to give up for Pollock. He’s better than anything we’ve got (which isn’t saying much!) but he’s not a material improvement. Eaton is the guy to try to get from AZ. Maybe, they won’t trade him, but why not dangle a package of Parnell + Mejia + Flores for Eaton? Maybe they bite.
I take it back. i don’t Pollock is better than Kirk or even MDD. Eaton, on the other hand, would be an upgrade over our current OF crop.
Pollock is actually similar to Kirk. They are both the same age, and they both don’t have any great tools, but almost all of their tools is about average or above average. They are both are examples of the sum being larger than the parts.
The difference between them is that Pollock has less power than Kirk, but Pollock is a more disciplined hitter and strikes out a lot less. Pollock is right handed, so they could make a nice platoon, but I wouldn’t give up that much to get him because he isn’t really that better than what we already have.
Being RH and able to lead-off are big advantages though.
Isn’t being LH and able to leadoff a bigger advantage?
Your two to three steps closer to first then?
I also think MDD is the better prospect than Pollock. I think MDD has a higher upside than him because of his outstanding defense in CF, and he possesses more power potential. MDD has a lower floor, but a much higher upside IMO.
You could be right. MDD might be an option relatively soon. He does have some power. Strikes out too much, but whatever. He seems to struggle 1st year at a higher level, then adjusts and has a strong rebound year.
Good point. He struggled after he was first called up to AA, but tore the league up last year. I expect him to putt up big numbers in Las Vegas this year, and he might make it up here sooner than we think.
Yes i hope so. The kid has put up some great SLG% & ISO #s @ AA.
Wheeler does not get traded for anyone at this point but I got a good trade for you guys. Drnaud,Syndergaurd,Flores,Mejia, and Havens for Mike Stanton. They clean out a lot of the system but Stanton is on the team for 5 years i think, or 6. They probably lock him up to.
so basically in a roundabout way you traded Dickey for Stanton, with a few misc. parts shuffled around along the way?
I think you would have to give up both Wheeler and D’Araund in a trade for Stanton……And I would have no problem doing that.
I get the Marlin games and their very biased announcers, promote Stanton to the hilt. However they have fan tweets/emails which they read. Stanton is very streaky just like Wright and they talk about it a lot such as “what will get Stanton going again?”. Stanton K’s a lot something like thirty percent and for a full year which I project to 180 K’s. Stanton on a bad team did not walk enough as he “K” ratio is at least 2 to 1. Stanton is NOT the next coming of Joe DiMaggio. Stanton may be a HOF at the end of his career but he may just be a low average Hr. guy. In 2011 he played 150 games and had 34 hrs. and only 87 RBI’s (sounds like Ike Davis to me). In 2012 he played 123 games and had 37 hrs. and only 86 RBI’s (sounds like Ike Davis to me. I project him at BEST a career .280, 40 hr. 100 RBI guy for maybe 13 years. Yes he will hit over 500 hrs. in a non steroid era. 180 K’s per year is alot in the middle of the order.
Great post. i’d prefer hanging onto Wheeler, d’Anaud, Syndergaard and with Ike, Niese, Harvey, Gee, and Wright for 2 – 3 years, have a solid core to be a playoff team for a few years. And pray 1 of Kirk, MDD, Nimmo, Puello can do it at the MLB Level. Otherwise, we’ll be OF poor for a long time!
The thing that raises a red flag about Gary Brown is how his OBP dipped from his jump to double A – 60 points is a significant drop off. He has to get on base so or a team won’t be able to take advantage of that speed.
To me it is not that big a flag considering the Pitching focus of AA over A Ball…
In A Ball Pitchers work on Pitches and when they get to A Ball they focus on throwing strikes.
A lot of that drop off in OBP could be merely due to the fact that those A Ball walks were not presented to him as often as before and his BA was the dominant factor in his OBP.
We all assume a .300 OBP is low but it’s not if your BA is around .270 to .290. You are showing the Plate discipline expected of a Batter but he probably needs some mechanical adjustment to his swing which is why he is in the Minors in the first place….
I never put much stock in OBP if the BA is there in the MLB, and I put even LESS stock when looking at A Ball and AA ball players…It’s not until AAA that it has any semblence of meaning as far as what to expect on the MLB level AFAIC
I really do believe the Mets have no interest in improving the team this year. and I don’t blame them if the plan to get better is really for 2014
1 they are not going to sign any free agent this year that will cost them thier draft pick.
2. if they finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball next year they can sign any top tier free agent with out giving up next years pick. so why sign anyone that will make them better?
3. if 2014 really is the year we go for it, then next year will be our last low first round pick we we have for a while. so might as well finish in the bottom 10 and get a great prospect.
I hope that this really is the plan..if it is I can make sense of all the non moves the Mets have made this year for our outfield/penn.
Texas Rangers are looking for a 1B/DH. Send Duda to Texas, Texas sends Craig Gentry to the Diamondbacks & the DB send Kubel to the Mets.
Better do it fast before Texas gets Berkman.
Wow you guys are prickly. Like it.