And tell you what, odds that a top 100 overall pitching prospect becomes a front of the rotation SP is significantly less than 50 %. Pretty much for EVERY front office. Which is why you want to assemble as many as you can to have as good a shot as possible.

The Giants have done a GREAT job with their young pitchers. However, Jesse Foppert, Merkin Valdez, Jonathan Sanchez or Kurt Ainsworth – all formerly highly touted pitching prospects for SF – all never amounted to much.
Still, Cain – Bumgarner – Lincecum is about as successful it can get.

It´s the combination of control (and command within the zone) and quality of pitches that make a pitcher. The more you have of the first, the less you can get by with the latter. Dillon Gee has merely an average fastball and a fringe average breaking pitch. But he has a fine changeup and well above average command. That´s a more likely SP arsenal to succeed than Jeurys Familia with a plus fastball, a plus slider but a well below average changeup and below average command.

Again, sure, one can give Familia 30+ starts at the major league level and see what happens. Maybe he grows with the assignment. However, what I see is a pitcher who´ll rarely make it into the 6th inning because he´ll be at 110 pitches after 5 innings with spotty command and too many foulballs, especially by lefty hitters who can fight off his plus fastball and plus slider more frequently. Since the Mets do have several other options both short- and longterm, mostly pitchers with much better control than Familia has already in spite of far less pro experience, keeping Familia in the rotation at all cost doesn´t seem necessary.

While there´s really no useful available stat to measure the importance of quality relievers available to the public, they certainly are quite important in building a strong team. Especially one that wants to have a chance in October too eventually.

Speaking of 3rd pitches, the reason why Domingo Tapia gets mentioned as a potential bullpen candidate is the lack of a quality breaking pitch at this point. He throws a plus plus fastball and a good changeup. And actually – unlike Familia – has pretty good control. However, his breaking stuff is lagging and he´ll need it to pitch through a major league lineup multiple times with success.

However, Tapia probably has a better chance to start than Familia. Because of better control and consistency of his pitches.

Famila – based on his current stuff – can potentially dominate a major lineup. However, due to spotty command and – currently – no adequate off-speed pitch, it´ll probably take him 20 to 25 pitches per inning to do so, which means, he´ll be at 100 to 110 pitches after 5 innings. If you average 20 pitches per inning as a reliever, it´s no problem. If you do the same as a SP, it is.
It´s basically all about pitch efficiency and getting your team through 6+ innings as a SP.
For that to happen you need to be able to control your stuff and have diverse stuff to avoid major league hitters “sitting” on a certain pitch and at least being able to foul it off when it comes.

And if you look at the scouting reports of Matt Harvey, the reason why most have projected him to be more of a # 2/3 starter than an ace is his only average command and fringe average changeup – which he made significant strides with in 2012, btw. In fact, his changeup – while still inconsistent – has emerged as a true out-pitch when it´s on. If Harvey gets to be more consistent with it – and his other pitches as well – the upside for him to become a # 1 SP is there.

That´s why development (generally in the minors) is so important. And while it´s only a rule of thumb, a pitcher should basically be “developed” after about 500 innings in the minors (maybe 250 to 300 are enough for a pitcher out of an advanced college program). Since Familia is well over that number, at least the odds of him adding something to his game seem quite low – lower than for Tapia, lower than for Mejia, lower than for Wheeler, Fulmer, Montero, Syndergaard and others for that matter. Though I´ll admit that pitchers have found something at much later ages occasionally too.

Still, I really like Familia. And he could become a dominating late inning bullpen force – which you also need to build a championship caliber team.

Yah I hear you…..Virtually every scout said Pedro Martinez was a reliever longterm as well….
Couple years later he is considered one of the best pitchers to play the game.

I could care less what people say I want to see this kid PROVE he cant be a starter. I dont want to be told by talking heads. Im sure if you ask all those virtual scouts how many times theyve been wrong on a player it is a lot more than not.

“Btw, Matt Harvey’s changeup is a lot further along than Familia’s – besides better control and repeatability.”

Lol…I remember when we 1st acquired Wheeler everyone automatically put him ahead of Harvey and said he was the better pitcher and Harvey looks like a solid #3 but when given the chance to pitch in the Majors so far Harvey is all ACES. I also remember when these same scouts were saying that Familia has better stuff than Harvey as well and only if he could master that 3rd pitch. My question to you is

WHY GIVE UP ON FAMILIA NOW??? Didnt you just say above that the Mets rushed Pelfrey? So why rush and give up on Familia he will only be 23yrs old when he pitches next year. He’ll be 1 1/2 years older than a kid coming out of college next year…

What Mets fans like you are doing is rushing prospects to fill holes on the major league club because Alderson wont add talent to it….You guys are screaming Sandy is doing a great job not wasting money on players in 2013 because 2014 is the year…So why rush Familia in 2013 he has until 2014. right? When the big plan manifests itself..lol

For one you are wrong on Wade Davis the Rays brought him up as a starter and he pitched as a starter for his 1st 3 seasons in the Majors. So they gave him EVERY chance to remain a Starting Pitcher but due to his low strikeout rate and being beaten out by 2 other TOP PROSPECTS(Hellickson and Alex Cobb) he lost his spot.

Mcgee was moved to the bullpen after Tommy John surgery cost him 2 years in the minors. Before being called up he transitioned to the pen and spent a year and a half as a relief pitcher in the Rays farm…and also because there was NO ROOM FOR HIM to advance on the 5man rotation…not to mention Matt Moore(whom is also a LHP) the best pitching prospect in all of baseball at the time bumped him as next in line and they were higher on guys like Moore, Hellickson, Cobb…Where would they put him in the rotation then? Over Price, Shields.

The Rays had a good problem of having too much major league ready pitching prospects at the same time…The mets DONT have that luxury.Unless youre counting bums like Hefner or non prospects like Colin Mchugh, Gorski with little to no upside….

Making having them much less important if all your going to do is waste them.

Your problem would seem to be you think being on BA’s list makes you good….

F-Mart proves otherwise…

On a team that everyone seems conviced we have a lack of talent which is why we need to trade away Cy Young Pitchers to get it, We can not afford to WASTE talent by throwing it inot the pen when he has done reasonably well as a starter if not for control issues that could get you 6-7 innings instead of one!

Only if the guy can serve as your long term fireman do you entertain putting a pitcher like that in the pen because they are almost as important as starters are to the team as far as winning games go.

You have a fastball and curve you don’t really need the changeup provided you can throw 2 seam, 4 seam to get different movement.

And Sandy went with him as our Ace….

A third Pitch yes…a Changeup NO!

Every Starter in the MLB throws a changeup or he must go into the pen?

Third Pitch FINE but if he can’t throw a Changeup as that third pitch teach him to throw something else!
Why is the focus for every kid seem to be throw changeups?
Is it organizational? Sabermetrical? or just another stubborn philosophy this FO seems to want to force kids to do despite what they are naturally gifted and able to achieve?

Kidding aside, how many SP in the majors with fringe average or below average command have emerged as frontline SP without an adequat changeup ?
You can also use a cutter or splitter for that matter instead – though those pitches have often come at the expense of more frequent arm injuries.

Or the best case is a starting pitcher like John Maine ( who actually had a decent changeup and better command but is at 100 pitches in the 5th inning). And even that may be too much to ask.

Would you rather have a 15 % chance at a quality SP or a 50 % chance at a quality reliever ?