27
2013
Projected Mets Opening Day Roster (2/13)

Yesterday we got more clarity on what the Mets Opening Day roster will look like. Believe it or not there’s really not many battles going on this Spring. Terry Collins cleared up some questions yesterday and showed where he was leaning. For some of these players a complete fail or unfortunate injury will keep them from losing their jobs.
In my third update to this post since I began on January 22, this is the way I see it.
2013 Mets Opening Day Roster
C : John Buck
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: David Wright
OF: Lucas Duda
OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis
OF: Mike Baxter
Bench: Collin Cowgill
Bench: Jordany Valdespin or Andrew Brown *Spring Training Battle #1
Bench: Justin Turner or Zach Lutz *Spring Training Battle #2
Bench: Brandon Hicks
Bench: Anthony Recker
SP: Johan Santana
SP: Matt Harvey
SP: Jonathon Niese
SP: Shaun Marcum
SP: Dillon Gee
CL: Bobby Parnell
SU: Brandon Lyon
RP: Josh Edgin
RP: Scott Atchison
RP: Pedro Feliciano
RP: Greg Burke or LaTroy Hawkins *Spring Training Battle #3
Collins gave Justin Turner a HUGE vote of confidence and even has him taking reps in the outfield just to find ways to give him more at-bats this season. That said, the Mets manager actually glowed when he spoke about young right-handed slugger Zach Lutz, a 2007 draft pick whose power has turned some heads. Lutz is going to give Turner a run for his money in the battle for the last bench spot.
The only way Valdespin makes the team is if he edges out Brown as the fifth outfielder. Nobody looks at Spin as an infielder anymore. Unfortunately, he has an attitude that is wearing thin in the Mets clubhouse. Mike Puma tweeted this week that a player expressed relief that his locker was not near No. 1. That’s Valdespin’s uniform number. They may call this a battle, but Brown has two things going for him – Spin and that he’s Alderson’s boy. That last part is going to matter a lot this Spring.
Anthony Recker will edge out Landon Powell in the battle for who’s the least worst option for Mets backup catcher. Not that Recker is all that better, it’s just seems to be gravitating that way.
There’s no chance that Travis d’Arnaud makes the team out of Spring Training. None. Forget about it. And that goes for Zack Wheeler too.
I’m getting a sneaky feeling that injury or no injury, Frank Francisco is being phased out. The Force is definitely not with him. Brandon Lyon was a solid addition and will be featured late in games, but Bobby Parnell is the top dog on this team, and that became very apparent yesterday.
Pedro Feliciano just shot up to the top of the food chain yesterday. It would take a 8.9 earthquake for him not to be in the bullpen along with fellow southpaw Josh Edgin. Both are locks and that spells Vegas for Robert Carson and Aaron Laffey.
Scott Atchison is another lock, the team is extremely high on him and that means no room at the inn for Mets hopefuls Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia who will both start the season in Vegas, Mejia as a starter and Familia as a reliever.
I will post my next update in a couple of weeks.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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If recent history is any indicator I am guessing if it comes down to player with options to a player without the player with options may not be on the Opening Day roster to allow for alternate choices if needed to replace a player without.
Hi Jersey,
Usually I would agree and under normal circumstances you are absolutely right about that.
But the fact that the Mets have not signed any major leaguers and only minor league deals, options won’t play as big a part as it did in past years, like when we sent Tejada down and kept Emaus in 2011.
Let me ask this then. Do you think the Mets would let Pedro Feliciano go rather than give him a shot 1st on Opening Day over taking a reliever that has options speculating of course that he is that close to where it is a consideration?
I think if they had any real confidence that Feliciano was effective enough to make the bullpen, he would have gotten a major league deal from the onset. I feel strongly he got a minors deal to have somewhere to work and re-build his value. In the meantime if the injury bug hits the pen, they’ll know they might have him in as a backup option. Considering how woeful the state of the Mets bullpen is, the fact Perpetual Pedro didn’t get a MLB deal right off the bat means they had concerns. Also there’s the fact he was still floating out there in mid January.
I would have thought that not pitching for 2 years pretty much did that for him (IE, not guaranteeing a major league deal).
Couldn’t it also mean the market dictated Pedro needs to prove himself before getting guaranteed money?
I mean, don’t forget he was 1 appearance away from returning before he rolled his ankle.
I am intrigued by the signing – I don’t think they should use him nearly as much as they did in the past but his arm looked fine in rehab appearances.
Dis sandy The Lord of losers fax you the BS line that you, queen of the loser lovers, is intrigued about the big feliciano sign. Are you even a real person?No, a mere puppet on loser lover gms little strings. Jests up the puppet queen of loser lovers.
So your thought is Pedro won’t find himself in that scenario for it to be a consideration. Fair enough. It may turn out as you describe I know can’t say with any certainty it won’t. Something worth monitoring for future conversation I suppose.
Should read, “I know I can’t say with any certainty it won’t.”
I too would think that no team would sign somebody to a major league contract who was out for two full years and is now going on 37. Hopefully, Pedro has shown the Mets braintrust (sic) he has something left and will be given a full shot during spring training to see if that is enough to again get major league hitters out.
Why give him a major league deal if you can get him on a minor league deal. No need to bargain against yourself.
That being said, I expect them to sign a reliever and Familia will start in the minors where he truly belongs. Same goes for Carson who likely stays in AAA in favor of Laffey or Feliciano.
I also expect Scott Hairston to be resigned on a 1 year deal where he will play almost everyday in LF/RF.
Right now, Andrew Brown is the best outfielder in the New York Met organization. He will be the starting right fielder, only because of Duda’s limited mobility, which will place him in left field. In addition, this team will need his RH bat. Here’s some footage of Brown during his brief stint with the Rockies:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=518500
He has enormous power, has the ability to track fly balls with ease and has an absolute cannon for an arm. He would do very well playing beside Michael Bourn. The footage illustrates his pull power, opposite field power, his ability to deal with windy conditions and his ability to throw out runners in scoring position. He’s really, really good.
Given our present-day options, here’s what I’d do:
Left field: Modified platoon (Duda, Turner, ‘Spin, Kirk)
Centerfield: Michael Bourn OR Kirk/Cowgill
Right field: Andrew Brown (Baxter, Kirk or ‘Spin v. tough righties)
In my estimation, the odd-man out will be among Cowgill, Kirk or Valdespin. I think Baxter and Duda have a spot on the Opening Day roster, as does Brown.
And remember, Spring Training always has its share of surprises both positive and negative, as well as its share of injuries.
Put it this way, we are very, very lucky to have acquired Andrew Brown. I am predicting that he will be this year’s sleeper and will be as effective playing RF as d’Arnaud will be behind the plate.
This team will strike a very healthy balance with Wright, d’Arnaud, Brown & Tejada from the right side, and Murphy, Davis, Duda & Bourn (?) from the left side. The team will be strong defensively, I expect Duda and Murphy to perform competently at their positions, and to be supplemented by late-inning replacements in late & close situations.
Wow, Tommy, you’re really high on him huh? I might have to give him a longer second look if only because I have a great deal of respect for your opinions over the years.
Thanks, Joe. He better not disappoint us!
When you have time, look at the videos provided above and check out his stat line on the Baseball Cube: Here’s a link…
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Andrew-Brown-2
It appears that he came up in the Cardinals organization (which means he was well-trained) and was somehow acquired by the Rockies.
He mutilated AAA PCL over the past 2 years. When you look at his stats and then observe the videos, you may conclude, as I have, that Andrew Brown just needs experience at the ML level.
He does things only really good ball players do:
- Has power to all fields – hit a moon shot OUT of Coors Field.
- Hits homeruns when they matter.
- Hits homeruns off pitchers like Zigler, who hadn’t given up a home run all year and Josh Beckett at Dodger Stadium to break a 0-0 4th inning tie.
Defensively, its not just that he has a great arm, but its the angle he takes on the ball to position himself to throw properly, he keeps the ball down and never airmails it.
In the video where he throws out Parra, the announcers were also referring to another great throw he made earlier in the same game. In the video where he tracks a very tricky fly ball, he made a potential adventure look easy as only a good outfielder can.
And the Dude plays first base, where he can spell Ike against tough lefties (which was another reason why I thought Hairston would’ve been a good signing to pick up the slack in the outfield – oh well…)
So, when you observe the videos and analyze his recent numbers, albeit enhanced by the hitter-friendly PCL, (@ 50 homeruns b/w AAA & MLB, and over 200 RBIs), at the very least, I’m not formulating my opinion without solid support. There’s a lot of data to suggest he’s ready to break out. If that happens, then we got an impact player on the cheap.
Based upon all of the available data, Andrew Brown is an opportunity away from making a strong impact at the ML level.
Thanks, Joe
I like the roster even though it is not complete. I actually think if they sign a starter be it Young, Marcum, Pavano, Saunders, or someone in that kind of group, add a right fielder be it Hairston or a trade for someone, add a closer type pitcher like k rod, Valverde, or Wilson, and with the eventual call ups of the kids and depth at pitching the Mets have an outside shot at the second wild card. I think the team will be better than last year.
On what planet
If I had to take a stab at it, and barring any acquisitions, I think you are looking at these two possibilities for your opening day lineup.
A
Tejada / Murphy / Wright / Ike / Duda / Buck / Kirk / Baxter
B
Kirk / Murphy / Wright / Ike / Duda / Tejada / Buck / Baxter.
Both are sub-optimal.
Not a fan of Ike and Duda back to back. Ideally TDA could bat 5th sometime down the line, but not something you want to drop him into right away.
Hey TX,
I bet if you asked Ike he would say he don’t like the idea of Duda behind him either,.
As for your “B”. Seeing Kirk batting leadoff is a really scary thought. I don’t know if that will happen.
Option B, for me, will all be based on how Kirk re-adjust (or if he can). I like the speed better than Tejada and Tejada to me me makes enough contact that he could drive in some runs if put in that position lower in the order.
I really wish it was option B with Bourn in there instead of Ike and Alvarez from Cuba in RF, but nothing I can do about that.
Still not ready to concede that the Mets won’t be adding an OFer before the start of the season. But barring that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kirk leading off.
Man – how bad is the OF and bench? My worry with Baxter is the same worry I have with Hairston. When very good bench bats/platoon players are expected to be every day guys, it rarely ends well.
This year though could show the Mets they need 3 OF’s and not 1. It’s make or break for Duda without a doubt
Man – how bad is the OF and bench?”
Wait, i thought you said it was an improvement over last year because we no longet have bay and torres? You change your mind too much…..
the guy doesn’t even say how much Delmon Young was signed for. And of course we know WHY he won’t say how much Delmon Young signed for. It was only 750K for 1 year and it would make his Sugar Daddy Sandy look bad
This was meant for his response as the bottom of this post
Man does that team SUCK. Holy shit.
It may be me being an optimist but I really feel we will acquire a major league/ significant upgrade in the outfielder before opening day.
From your finger tips on the keys to the Good Lord’s Eyeballs.
The Phils get Delmon Young and I’m looking now … for a team supposed to be back in contention, their OF sure is questionable at best
I mean, okay Revere is alright, I’m not gonna sit here and pretend he’s very good at the plate though
Ruf, Nix, Mayberry, Brown and Delmon Young
That’s not a very good OF in all reality.
Delmon has had great success in the playoffs – but he’s also an atrocious fielder with off the field issues which is likely why his value dropped. There isn’t a chance in the world a NY team was bringing him in after his alleged hate crime in NY. So anybody who wants to paint this as a whiff by the Mets is not thinking clear.
no but it would beat ours in left, center and right. Whats wrong with Brown – he was a highly rated prospect. Thought we liked those
Well, we added to our offense by getting a 32 year old cacher who hit .192 with Miami last year.
A bench that includes Brandon Hicks who hit .172, Andrew Brown who did hit five homes runs (two on the road) with Colorado but hit 232 average and Cowgill did hit .269 last season with 1 home run,
Rooting hard for Baxter (who was a .300 hitter both years in triple A), Kirk (who just missed .300 in half a season at triple A) and Duda to come back to his rookie form but have to be realisitic about their abilities to hold down a regular major league job. Let’s hope were surprised.
No way baxter is an everyday player. basically, if this is the OD OF (and I still hold out hope another guy is brought it, and not looking for it to be hairston), they are running 3 platoons using 5 guys (meaning, all 3 positions will essentially be platoons, just not always the same guys all the time, with 1 LHB starting vs. a lefty that vaires who it is depending on the day)
I think Burke makes it, since he is on the 40 man. Not sure they will go with 3 lefties either, so it could be Pedro over Carson.
also possible that a dark horse young guy grabs a back end pen spot out of ST.
I also don’t think Spin over brown, since that would be 4 lefties. maybe over Baxter?
Turner, can’t they find a better option, or at least make him earn the job? Just don’t see the attraction.
but pretty much, from the guys on hand now, this looks about like it.
and overall the units are OK to good, with the glaring need for at least 1 legit, above average (in some way) OF. Be it CF or RF, a solid starter there and they can roll with platoons in the other 2 OF positions. And expect a bit of churn in the OF roster for sure.
what is ok about the bullpen or the outfield. frank francisco sucks. we dont have a major league outfileder on the roster. what am i missing.
even the starting rotation has two huge injury question marks and an unproven 5th starter.
the infiled has durablility issues and what bench??? if you are telling me Wright, Niese, Harvey and Davis look ok to good then i get it. Not getting the rest. thank god for the Marlins
I said other than the OF.
missed that but we need more than one to be considered even Ok. Disagree about the bullpen. It still sucks – need a closer to keep a bullpen together. Very few of the other guys are proven over a whole season or proven at all in the majors. Plus Tejada has never played more then 114 games. we have no bench.
Joe,
Good summary although premature. Alderson most certainly will add 2-3 to this list which will bump some guys to AAA. If Feliciano is healthy, I see him bumping Caron to AAA. They definitely need 2 lefities in the pen, and I think Edgin has a leg up on Carson at this point, although that can flip flop since they both have options. I think Burke will make the pen unless he flops in ST, as it is nice to have a submariner option to change the look. I still think Mejia and probably Familia are better suited starting in Vegas at the beginning of the year, but Alderson will need to acquire a backend arm (Wilson) for that to happen. As you point out, the top of the lineup is missing a leadoff hitter with speed. Coco Crisp anybody?
The lineup, by any standard, is terrible. Really too bad we didn’t have enough money to resign Reyes and pay BJ Upton. Those 2 contracts are reasonable for those players offensive production, and look even better when you take into account above average defense at premium positions.
But this is the reality for now I guess.
Upton had 45 errors in the past 5 seasons.
Not sure where you got your stats from but that’s incorrect.
2012 : 3 Errors
2011: 3 Errors
2010: 5 Errors
2009: 4 Errors
2008 : 7 Errors
In 2007 he committed 12 Errors playing 2nd base and had 13 playing 3rd base in 2006.
Vs righties barring a signing or a trade for a right fielder this is what I think the batting order and defensive positions should be in my view.
Cowgill Cf
Murphy 2b
Wright 3b
Davis 1b
Buck/D’arnaud Catcher
Duda lf
Tejeda SS
Captain Kirk Rf
Vs lefties barring a sign or a trade this is what the batting order and defensive poditions should be in my view
Cowgill Cf
Murphy 2b
Wright 3b
Davis 1b
Andre Brown RF
Buck/ D’arnaud Catcher
Duda Lf
Tejeda SS
If they do not sign Hairston or bring in a another outfielder Captain Kirk should not platoon in Center in my opinion but in right field with Brown. It is a big defensive upgrade in right and Cowgolill plays very good Defense according to scouts. This gives the best defensive outfield and most likely best upside to the line up.
Barring a signing or a trade this is what the rotation should look like in my view.
Santana
Harvey
Neise
Gee
Hefner
Harvey to me has to get slotted right into the two spot to break up the lefties. He has the stuff to do it, he has the mentality to succeed and hopefully they slot him there. Hefner is more ready to be the fifth guy than Mchugh In my opinion. I liked what I saw at times last year and he might be able to eat some innings. Mejia should go straight to the triple A rotation. He looked a mess to me going back and forth from bullpen to rotation. They got to leave him there to build up trade value or to get it together to be the fifth starter later in year or in 2014.
Bullpen barring a trade or signing is obvious I guess
Francisco Closer
Parnell set up
Edgin lefty set up
Carson lefty specialist
Burke
Famillia
I hope they sign one of Valverde, K rod, or Wilson to compete for closer. Feliciano might get in the bullpen as well throughout the year somewhere. Famillia has closer stuff and they should just use him there. They have enough starting pitching. He has closer stuff and might turn out to be a jewel there. Definitely more lefty relief and possibly dominant as well as apposed to last year. Thank god cause that really upset me last year. Especially in this division you need lefties. Parnell was very good past two years and I expect the same or more from him. Francisco had the worst season in his career and it could be because of injuries, most likely. His numbers are very consistent throughout the years and I expect them to be that after the surgery. Just hope he is ready by opening day, if he is not hopefully they would have one of Wilson, Valverde, or Krod there. And I very much dislike Krod and Valverde. But I think with one of them the bullpen has the ability to be very very good.
The bench is
Brown
Baxter
Turner
Hicks/quintnillia/valdespin
Buck/Recker
Valdespin might be the every day right fielder, I like his bat but I just do not like him or his attitude, he should play in triple A and get better for the Mets or for trade bait. Everyone else is just a file player, Baxter excels at pinch hitting and that should be what he does. Turner is a utility guy. Buck will be a nice right handed bat off the bench with pop as well when D’arnaud comes up. It is certainly not a strentgh to start out. But we might see Decker, Flores, and a guy who might sneak in mid year and take over center in Lagares if Cowgill struggles.
When has Fransisco ever been good or healthy. He is a bottom rung closer and at best an average middle reliever. And we have no one behind him….
As much as Alderson talks about how disheartening late losses are to a team, he does nothing about it.
Thoughts on Mets’ Projected 2013 Roster: This is how a 70 win team is constructed. The starting rotation could be okay-decent, but I’m not expecting good-great in 2013. The infield is solid, but could be real good. The outfield is abysmal. The best hope for the bullpen is that bullpens are impossible to predict, so maybe we’ll get lucky five times over and actually be decent there as well.
All in all if you look at Francisco’s numbers over the years they are good and fairly consistent. He was decent closer in Texas for a year and in 2011 he closed from end of June on with an ERA in the 1s without blowing a save. He only blew three saves last year and was bad. If he has a season like he usually does, era around 3.5 that would be a big improvement over last years 5.5. I’m not saying he is Mo, but he has been a good pitcher.
Hi Peter,
But as many have pointed out, Francisco’s better performances came not as a closer but a middle or set-up man.
He’s not the bad pitcher we saw last year but for him to be a dependable one, he needs to be moved out of that closer spot.
Pretty sure that the Mets will add one more veteran SP prior to the start of spring training.
I´ll stick with my bet and guess Chris Young.
If Feliciano is healthy & able to pitch, I figure he wins the spot vs. Carson who´ll be AAA insurance for the time being.
I also cannot see Baxter in a starting role. If the Mets don´t re-sign Hairston or even sign Bourn or trade for an established outfielder, I wouldn´t be surprised at all to see Andrew Brown winning that spot. He hit 29 HR between AAA and the majors last year. And while it came in the thin air of Colorado, it´s not as if the Mets couldn´t use an outfielder with the potential to hit at least 20 HR. Plus, you´d want to have at least one lefty bat on the bench anyway where Baxter seems like a nice fit.
Valdespin probably is better off at AAA initially, working at both 2b and the corner OF spots.
I agree Joe, most of Francisco’s success came in middle relief, but he did have success in Texas as a closer and was good in Toronto before he signed. If his ERA drops two runs to his usual numbers, it will be a big improvement to the pen whether he pitches in the 8th or 9th.
I also stated I think they should bring in Krod, Valverde, or Wilson in a few posts to compete for closer to deepen the bullpen because of what you are saying. Plus he is coming off surgery as well so there is know guarantee he will be ready to start the season. But there is reason for optimism for this bullpen for that reason alone. Plus Edgin, Carson, Laffey, Gorski, and Feliciano provide depth that we did not have last year from the left side which is going to be huge. The right handed pitchers will not be put in as many situations to fail with bad match ups vs leftie hitters with runners on base because of this. There is potential here and as a fan you only have so much power. I know the negatives but I lean on being optimistic and positive since I have no power on roster decisions.
Stolen bases are somewhat overrated.
But I nominate the 2000 Mets for slowest team I remember. Ventura – Piazza – Zeile were all incredibly slow, and guys like Fonzie, Bordick/Ordonez were pretty slow as well. The team leader in stolen bases had 8. The probably the only guy (other than Rickey who got sent packing early) on that team who was at all speedy was Payton…but he got caught stealing 11 times in 16 attempts. Though back in those years the ball (and players) were juiced and everyone was hitting a ton of HRs, so speed was even less important.
But anyway, hopefully some of the young or relatively young players will have some nice years. I think Duda is a big key. If he can do what he did in 2011, that will help the lineup quite a bit.
I don’t think its a big deal either way where d’Arnaud hits when he comes up. If he’s ready…he’s ready – it shouldn’t negatively effect him if he’s hitting 5th-6th instead of 7th-8th. You don’t go out there and tell the kid he needs to save the team, but you can put him where you think he can help and succeed. And sometimes it can be more difficult and take some extra adjustment if you put guys like that in the 8th spot…hitting in front of the pitcher, when they aren’t used to it. (Though I suppose that can also help them learn some plate patience)
For the first time in years the Mets will actually have non-journeyman depth in AAA. Carson and Familia will likely be in AAA too as Sandy is clearly taking his time waiting to get players at the cheapest possible price. Laffey will make the team over Carson for sure and if Feliciano is healthy then obviously he gets the nod.
I expect at least one OF and RP brought in as there are still some guys that could easily make this roster on the free agent list like Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Capps, Chad Durbin, Juan Cruz, Kameron Loe, Mark Lowe. Heck even Rauch, Ramirez, Isringhausen and Contreras would be upgrades although Rauch probably couldn’t wait to leave here…
If I’m Sandy I hold out as long as I can and try and get Lyon or Capps on a 1 year deal and get Mark Lowe as well and if that’s not possible throw a minor league deal to Izzy or Contreras and see if they have anything left in the tank…
I also think Laffey is a lock over Carson.. Laffey and Edgin as the lefties, Parnell and Francisco late inning guys, Hefner long relif and probably Burke at this point to round out the bullpen. i think we’ll see Familia before long in the pen..
I also think Brown is a lock for a righty OF unless his just a horrible spring. As solid as Baxter is and somewhat logical to platoon i think Spin gets the be the starter vs righties, he has some infield versaltility too and had some awesome ph appreances and i think the odd man out just to start the season will be Kirk, giving full cf duties to Cowgill, he has speed and def hopefully he can hit. Duda in LF with Baxter spelling them for occasional starts, late inning def and ph..
As bad as OF looks on paper i think Duda 2013 will be better then 2012 version, cf was horrible last year maybe Cowgill will be a uptick, replacing Hairston productivity will be tougher task but maybe the Spin/Brown combo can match it so, maybe they sign Bourne for 3 years and things change and bullpen best case id like to see them sign a Rauch-type to upgrade over Burke..and then, hey, you never know !!
I think Valdespin should get a chance to start… He has the most potential out of the current outfield crop. I would disregard all the talk about his attitude. Being nice doesn’t win games, let him start.
I agree. For what it’s worth Spin ended winterball with I believe a 21 game hitting streak. Hopefully he found something in his swing and it carries over into the regular season. I don’t know at this stage if the Mets will add a right-handed outfielder with some power and major league experience from outside the organization and if not that is a poor job on the Mets GM’s part. Right now it looks like we may be left asking what can Brown do for you?
True, but to me the Mets dont seem to high on Valdespin. I guess they value character over talent. I still feel they should make him a starting outfielder and see what he can do. He has the most speed, and has some pop in his bat. Plus i don’t think hes a bad teammate.
Looking at the current Mets outfield configuration, if Valdespin doesn’t win one of those jobs over those three, he would have etched his incompetency in stone.