15
2013
Is It Time For Mets To Lock Up Ike Davis?
An article by 
Taskmaster asks:
We know Niese was signed long term in ST last season and the idea of locking up the young guys is a model that is being followed. I am not sure the Mets are 100% sold on Ike yet but they are certainly leaning that way. My question is when do we see Ike given a LT contract that locks him up for 5-7 years?
Jessep replies:
For me, I think Ike has a lot to prove in 2013. The excuses of being rusty due to the prior injury or valley fever are now gone. He has to have a strong season in 2013 for the Mets to consider him a long term solution at 1B.
With regards to Niese, he was signed to a deal that takes him through his 30th birthday without the Mets ever having to go through arbitration with him.
With Davis, he will turn 26 just prior to Opening Day this year. So technically, the Mets know he’s under team control until he turns 30 years old just like Niese. The difference here is that Niese is a young left-handed starting pitcher on the rise, and Davis is a young first baseman with something to prove.
It really all depends on the value of the deal. Neither deal would be necessary to keep the player on the Mets, it’s just a matter of where you project arbitration going with that player.
If I had to guess, 2013 will make or break this for Davis. If he has a solid year, I think he could be rewarded with guaranteed money over the next 3 seasons with an option at the end of the deal.
I wouldn’t say it’s something they need to do right now though.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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The Mets have no excitement watching them play ,or watching them trying to get a team together to play?This off season has been like watching paint dry.Do something!
From a business perspective, it might be too early to extend Ike’s contract because he does not become a free agent until 2016 or 2017. So at this point, the Mets should simply be fair in contract negotations just to avoid the unhealthy stentch that is left going through arbitration.
we should lock up Ike til around age 34
meaning after this season, if he plays the way he did in the 2nd half
a 6 year 60 mil contract with 2 option years for 15 mil a piece would be fair would be fair
thats 8 year/90 mil
I thought Ike proved a lot in the second half last season after playing the first half recovering from a busted ankle that was misdiagnosed by the Mets, a one year layoff, and Valley Fever. If he has a full season in 2013 like that second half, the Mets won’t be able to afford him. He’ll become bait for more minnows and guppies for the pond in our farm.
K Maxx: For much of the 2010 season, Davis was a .750ish OPS hitter. In fact if you look at Ike Davis you’ll notice he had a solid April 2010, September 2010, April 2011, June 2012, August 2012 and September 2012.
Other than that he’s been pretty pedestrian. He has so much potential, and I guess my point is – why extend him now when he has yet to put together 1 solid consistent season.
If he does what we all hope he will do in 2013, then the low hanging fruit of guaranteed money for the next 4 years is still an option. But why pay now when you’re still reasonably unsure how he will produce?
“Other than that he’s been pretty pedestrian.”
I don’t see how it’s fair to exclude his best months of his career and make any kind of objective judgments based off that. Couldn’t you also exclude his five worst months and say “other than that, he’s been awesome”?
And let’s put his 2010 season in proper context. This was a rookie that played only 10 games at AAA level and was suddenly thrust into the clean up spot in the majors league and performed well offensively and defensively – You can ask for more than that. Also, he had a .791 OPS in 2010.
Vinny – My point was consistency. To date, Ike Davis has not put together a consistent season where we KNOW what to expect. 2010 he was a rookie, 2011 he got hurt, 2012 he was rusty.
There’s nothing that helps us know exactly who this guy is as a player yet.
The discussion is about locking him up and saying he’s a cornerstone player. To date, he has yet to prove he can be that guy. We all HOPE and THINK he can… but we don’t know that yet.
I’ve got 674 at bats that show me he may be a .220 hitter. That’s 2012 April, May, July+2011 May, plus 2010 May, June, July and August.
You’ve got 497 AB telling you he’s a .295 hitter. That’s extremely Jekyll & Hyde. Everybody hopes he can be that .295 guy… but until he proves it over the course of an entire season, he isn’t a long term answer… not yet anyway
Couldn’t you say the same thing about Niese though? He didn’t “prove” anything either – He posted ERA’s over 4 in his only two years.
I understand that it could be a little different situation due to arbitration, but if your point is mostly about consistency, then by that logic the Mets should have waited for Niese to prove something before signed him.
I’m saying they saw enough in Niese to GUARANTEE him money. Niese was gonna be a Met over the next 3-4 years anyway so long as he performed… the same can be said about Ike/ It’s about whether they earn the guaranteed roster spot.
I’d say Niese did enough to guarantee himself a #3 spot in the rotation (which he’s getting paid like over the next 3 years). I’m merely stating I do not think Ike has proven to be an every day cornerstone 1B yet. I hope he does this year but if he has a year similar to 2012, then the Mets may need a new 1B plan…. that’s why you don’t guarantee him money yet
What did Niese prove in his first two years? You remember that he had a 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP? Niese proved that he was a talented player, but the results really weren’t there yet.
Couldn’t you say the same thing with Ike now?
I don’t see how Niese “did enough” to get guaranteed money but Ike didn’t. You remember that Niese had a 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2011? How is that enough, but Ike managing to smash 30+HR despite recovering from valley fever and last years devastating injury isn’t?
If you watched most of Niese’s starts in 2011 then you know that his 4.40 ERA and 1.4 WHIP was very misleading. He was a grounbdall machine at 51.5% and the team played god awful defense behind him which shows in his 3.36 FIP. He was one of the ost unluckiest pitchers in the NL in 2011. He pitched much better than that 4.40 ERA indicates.
Niese also hit the DL 3 times in the 2 inconsistent years prior to signing that contract.
I agree it was the right move….for the same reasons I think the mets should replicate that with Ike
I sound pessimistic sometimes, but I dont mind building around the guys we have.
This.
Oh I agree his stats could mislead you about his talent; I’m not saying that’s not the case. I’m just saying by the standards Jessep is using for Ike, Niese didn’t prove anything either.
And if you watched Ike in 2012, you would know that his stats were misleading also because his early season struggles were due to having valley fever in ST, and being rusty because he missed almost all of 2011 with a freak injury.
If you want to talk about luck, then consider this: How could you get any more unlucky than to miss almost an entire year from trying to catch a pop fly, and suffering from valley fever the next season in ST? Now that’s unlucky.
Jesse
I agree with you entire take on this. I like Ike very much and would love nothing more than to lock up another one of our homegrown studs long term. He just needs to prove he’s a stud.
if they are going to do it, this would be the year.
Sticks and stones may break my bones (but words will never hurt me).
something that you say which means that people cannot hurt you with bad things they say or write about you Criticism has never bothered me. Sticks and stones may break my bones, and all that.
Ike will want to be locked up to 35 at minimum 120 M.
He will accept 5 years 75 M
If he hits 40 Hrs hrs in 2013 his price will go up 25%
So Sandy will trade him next off season.
Ike is going to be a D’back sooner than later.
Therefore trade him now.
“Locking up Ike”….what on a morals charge? The Wilpons were troubled by his lifestyle earlier this winter. Its not going to happen soon.
That is interesting. Do you have a link to show that? Or are you basing it upon Adam Rubin’s report which nobody who has looked into it can find where Rubin came up with that?
Be careful of misleading reports from “Met sources”. There is enough stuff to attack the Wilpon’s on that is verified.
Just Rubin and the following media talk. Davis may be too much of an independent thinker for the FO. It will be interesting to see how the arbitration goes this year. It could get ugly.
David hasnt put up a consistent season since 08…does this mean we give ike a 8 year deal too? Or does he have to smile n kiss a few more babies?
2009: .307/.390/.447
2010: .283/.354/.503
2011: .254/.345/.427
2012: .306/.391/.492
Is a heck of a lot more consistency than Davis has shown. And you want to compare 25 year old Davis to Wright, then go compare their #s at similar ages. Or does that not fit your anti Wright agenda?
Through age 25, Wright .309/.389/.533 26HR 98RBI
Through age 25, Davis .252/.336/.461 19HR 62RBI
Which player through similar age had a better career? Remember, Wright was locked up at an early age too. Why? Because he had proven results.
Whether you want to admit it or not, Ike has not had 1 season where he has proven himself yet. He’s still a question mark
Very well made points, again. Unfortunately you are preaching to the wrong crowd.
“why extend him now when he has yet to put together 1 solid consistent season.”
David Wright has not put up ONE SOLID CONSISTENT season since 2008
Let us look at his splits
2009 1st half – .324
2009 2nd half – .279
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2009&t=b#half
2010 1st half – .324
2010 2nd half – .279
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2010&t=b#half
2011 1st half – .314
2011 2nd half – .244
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2011&t=b#half
2012 1st half – .226
2012 2nd half – .272
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2012&t=b#half
Lets look at Ike Davis
2010 1st half – .258
2010 2nd half – .270
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisik02&year=2010&t=b#half
2011 – 1st half -.302
2011 – 2nd half – injured due to David Wright’s stellar communication skills
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisik02&year=2011&t=b#half
2012 1st half- .201
2012 2nd half- .255
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisik02&year=2012&t=b#half
please remind me again how David is solidly consistent since 2008 ?
according to you consistent is in the context of the same year.
David has been the poster child of erratic and streaky production since 2008…but in your demented warped universe. the numbers i posted above are signs of consistency !!!
Facts are fun, you should try them
Wright’s numbers still look much better than Ike’s. Many of Wright’s “bad” halves look like Ike’s good ones….not that batting average is the best metric (especially if you are trying to plead Ike’s case). “Consistency” itself isn’t really the important thing for Ike….putting together a good full season is. T That doesn’t mean he has to be great every month (hardly anyone is)…it just means over the course of a full season you want the numbers to average out to something good. If Ike puts up a 143 OPS+ or even a 130 OPS+ over the course of a full seasons worth of games he can be “inconsistent” and still worth a lot.
To this point it’s still hard to know what exactly he is. He’s still relatively young/inexperienced. His rookie year wasn’t amazing by typical standards of a 1b, but it was certainly solid for a rookie. 2011 he barely played, but got off to a good start. Then his 2012 was up and down…ended up having a decent, but not great year. So its fair to say – we might not know exactly what he is yet.
And its pretty silly to blame Wright’s “communication skills” for the Ike injury given Wright could be clearly heard calling for the ball on TV,
Ike has power that DW can only dream about in his sleep now.
And I find it very peculiar that folks only reserve the “no protection in the lineup” excuse for Wright…
but when it comes to Ike and pretty much anyone else, that line takes a vacation.
“And its pretty silly to blame Wright’s “communication skills” for the Ike injury given Wright could be clearly heard calling for the ball on TV”
I was just kidding…it was really pelfrey’s fault.
meaning they blamed reyes
The protection stuff is somewhat overrated. Though it has been brought up with Ike here before. Craig wrote a post a couple weeks ago wondering if not having much “protection” will have a negative effect on Ike this year. Yet instead of that post being referred to as a pre-made “excuse” for Ike….a poster accused Craig of “picking on” Ike.
First and foremost you need to get over your obsession with David Wright. Whether you like it or not, he’s the 3B of your favorite baseball team. You also need to get over this idea that his contract was 100% baseball related. Baseball is a business and extending David Wright was good for business and good for baseball. You need to start understanding that outside of your little bubble where everything Wright does is wrong, there are literally millions of people who appreciate him and connect him directly to the Mets. That’s how it is, the sooner you understand that – the better baseball discussion we can have.
We’re talking about locking up Ike Davis at age 26. Not at age 30. If Ike had the same exact numbers he has today at age 30, he’d be considered a bust.
Ike has not proven yet to be the player we all think he can be. He just hasn’t. There’s been several obstacles in his way which is why 2013 is a huge benchmark for him. He has to stay healthy and prove he can put together ONE consistent season. David Wright over 9 years is a .301 hitter with a .887 OPS averaging 26 HR and over 100 RBI. That’s over the course of 9 years. Ike Davis doesn’t even sniff those numbers right now.
well said.
>First and foremost you need to get over your obsession with David Wright.
Obsession? I am critical of the double-standard and the potential domino effect it has on my favorite team. thats called addressing a concern. when you start making stuff up like redefining what is a “consistent” year, thats obsession.
You said Ike hasnt put up a single solid consistent year
(even though his 2010 was pretty even and his 2011 was shaping up to be as well…)
I said since 2008 ( age 25/26) neither has David, yet he got a 8 year deal at age 30 (bad move)
>Whether you like it or not, he’s the 3B of your favorite baseball team.
LMAO ….wow….i will have chopped liver and like it mister !
>You also need to get over this idea that his contract was 100% baseball related.
Wait…are you saying his dimples had something to do with this ….hmmmm
hey rather than try to keep him for reasons other than baseball we just lowballed then traded a Cy Young winner with his own book out now and world-wide attention for philanthropy, called one of the best feel-good stories in all of sports….
not that i disagree with trading him ( right move for a rebuilding franchise )
>Baseball is a business
Baseball is a COMPETITIVE SPORT and a business. That first part is something YOU need to understand.
>and extending David Wright was good for business and good for baseball.
Who is obsessed again?
>You need to start understanding that outside of your little bubble where everything Wright does >is wrong,
Wow…dude I dont think David Wright would be as upset over my opinion as you are…
>there are literally millions of people who appreciate him and connect him directly to the Mets.
and that will do nothing for the mets if they are languishing in 3rd place for the next 8 years.
tens of millions of fans + David Wright + 4th place mets team = bad attendance
bad attendance = less money
less money = bad business
bad business = bad business
Remind me how David Wright’s 8 year contract was supposed to be good for business again?
let me redo that formula for you
tens of millions of fans + _____ <insert random name + 1st place mets team = good attendance
good attendance = good business
good business = more money
more money = good business
good business = good business
St. Louis lost a 2 time MVP, home-grown FROM the HOME-STATE, after winning 2 rings and bringing in a TON OF CASH….and attendance went UP !!!
I am glad to see that you stated DW was kept for reasons OTHER than baseball.
because when those tens of millions of fans who appreciate DW and connect him to the mets stop showing up…and the few that do start BOOING
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/new-york-mets-fans-wrong-boo-slumping-david-wright-article-1.166015
http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/sports/pirates/mlb-notebook-mets-fans-boo-struggling-wright-339568/?print=1
maybe, just MAYBE you will see how fickle and hungry this fan base is
here in 2008, this is what some of the MET players said about the fans
Schoeneweis, however, was defiant after Sunday's game, in which he retired the only batter he faced.
"I don't really want to care about the fans anymore," he said. "If they want to boo, let them boo. I'm not going to take them out to dinner."
Billy Wagner, who sits next to Schoeneweis in the locker room, seemed just as frustrated.
"If they're booing for ridiculous reasons, you just let them look like idiots and go about your business," he said.
well its a good thing they didnt make a big deal out it, because Scott and Billy sound ALOT like Justin Upton in Arizona !!!
JESSEP – FYI – that was a masterful way of getting around the point that David Wright has not had a consistent year since 2008…
well done
the “non-baseball” reasons ( none of which you were able to explicitly point out ) obviously trump having to produce consistent seasons…because as I have explicitly shown, David Wright has not done that since age 25 and we are paying him from age 30-38 !
JESSEP – still no response. We’ll just cough it up to u conceding that you have a sliding scale for players with dimples
.260+ BA and 26+ HRs and yes you lock him up!
I’m with Vinny and K Maxx.
If he has a good season this year, which is likely, we’re screwed. We won’t be able to afford him in arbitration soon enough and he’ll be on his way out because of his “bad attitude.”
Wait – what are you talking about?
After Votto won the league MVP he signed a 3 year deal to avoid arbitration for $5.5M, $9.5M, and $17M… and he won an MVP.
Prince Fielder avoided arbitration with 6.5 followed by 10.5
Ryan Howard won $10m in arbitration two years removed from an MVP and another mvp caliber season.
This idea that the Mets won’t be able to afford Ike with a good year this year is silly. He’s not a superstar. He doesn’t have a leg to stand on when it comes to a high salary right now. If he has a good year this year, all it does is make it easier to buy out his arbitration because he’ll want guaranteed money and not gamble that he can replicate his season year after year.
He’s a Met until he’s 30 unless they trade him or cut him. So whether he likes it or not, he has no leverage… the same way Giancarlo has no leverage.
That’s sort of it.
He doesn’t have any leverage for a high salary right now, so it would make sense for the team to lock him up now. It’s only a minor risk in my eyes.
Okay rather than spin in a circle let’s do this
Ike Davis says to you today, Perseus the Immortal.
“Hi sir. I’d like to avoid arbitration, can we work out a deal?”
What is the most fair offer for both sides in your view?
On March 2, 2007, the Phillies renewed Howard’s contract in a one-year deal for $900,000, the highest salary ever offered to a player not eligible for salary arbitration.[12]
Because Howard was a Super 2 – ( Ike is not ), Howard qualified for arb early
On February 21, 2008, Howard won an arbitration case against the Phillies, and was awarded $10 million, the most ever for a victorious player and tied for the most ever awarded. The Phillies had offered $7 million to Howard in salary.
The next year, On February 8, the Phillies and Howard agreed on a 3-year, $54 million contract that bought out his remaining three years of salary arbitration eligibility.
thats 4 years, 64 mil for his 4 years of arbitration.
thats an avg over 15 mil for his arb years.
as far as his free-agent years, the next 5 were bought out
2012 32 Philadelphia Phillies $20,000,000 contracts
2013 33 Philadelphia Phillies $20,000,000
2014 34 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000
2015 35 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000
2016 36 Philadelphia Phillies $25,000,000
2017 37 Philadelphia Phillies *$23,000,000 $23M Team Option, $10M Buyout
In total, the Phillies will spend around 200 million dollars for 12 years of Ryan Howard ( unless he is traded )
I’m not sure what your point is?
When Ryan Howard got 900k in his 2nd year he was coming off an MVP season.
When he got $10mil he was coming off a top 5 MVP season that followed an MVP season.
And then the Phils paid him handsomely for the next 3 years. I’ll tell you this. If Ike Davis has a 2013 similar to Howard’s 2006, anybody would sign up for those contract offers
Hey Jessep,
Stop harassing people. Instead of pontificating and regurgitating the same biased comments again and again, riddle me this.
You were very vocal after Alderson’s interview on WFAN and you made some statements that you now seem to be doing an about face on. (As usual)
Jessep said:
If in April, I look at this team and see an outfield of Bay-Kirk-Duda plus Thole behind the plate, plus the bullpen being relatively the same – then I’m going to start the path toward angry Mets fan. I won’t jump to conclusions today, but I listened to that interview very carefully, and if it proves to be malarkey then I’m going to be pretty ticked off.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2012/11/when-sandy-promised-wholesale-changes-did-it-resonate-with-you.html
Jessep October 4, 2012:
So now he’s gonna make or break with some people, me included. If I see an outfield consisting of Duda/Kirk and Spin/Bay then I’m gonna have a problem with that.
Jessep October 4, 2012:
You can’t say Kirk is the CF and claim that to be a significant change.
Jessep October 4, 2012:
You cannot say you expect significant changes or substantial changes and bring back combinations of Thole, Kirk, Duda, Torres, Spin for example and say “this is our team.”
We’re all anxiously waiting for you to show us how ticked off you are.
Or is this just another case of pop goes the weasel?
Oh how I was waiting for Met Maniac’s Opus…. that self described “comprise a long healthy comment on what a fraud he is.”
And this is what I get?
“If in April, I look at this team and see an outfield of Bay-Kirk-Duda plus Thole behind the plate, plus the bullpen being relatively the same – then I’m going to start the path toward angry Mets fan. I won’t jump to conclusions today, but I listened to that interview very carefully, and if it proves to be malarkey then I’m going to be pretty ticked off.”
- So I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not but right now Jason Bay is gone, Kirk is not a lock to be the starting CF, Josh Thole is gone and the bullpen is not the same as it was in 2012.
You do realize that right?
“You cannot say you expect significant changes or substantial changes and bring back combinations of Thole, Kirk, Duda, Torres, Spin for example and say “this is our team.””
Thole is gone, Torres is gone and Spin right now has no real spot on this roster
This is the best you have? Wondering why I haven’t complained about the Mets bringing back Jason Bay, Andres Torres, Josh Thole, the same 2012 bullpen when in reality…. they didn’t?
I mean, if you want to sit in the shoutbox and talk about me day after day I would hope, nay wish, you and your friends could do a better job than this.
So Pop goes the Weasel it is.
As I said when you made those comments, you were full of crap.
You can resume your agenda.
so 3 out of the 5 you had problems with are still on the team, 2 likely starters, hell if we dont sign a RF, 3 of the 5 you pointed out could be starters…
I’ll be patient and wait for you to join us in April
Careful Damaja. Last time we let a snake into our garden the whole damn thing went to hell.
I always welcome sinners who repent.
despite what was said in the movie, JESSEP is welcome to leave the FIRM at any time
I’ve said pretty much from jump street that I am willing to be patient with the off-season.
Right now Jason Bay and Andres Torres are not starting for the Mets. Right now, Josh Thole is not starting for the Mets. Right now Kirk is not a guarantee to start for the Mets. Right now the bullpen has only TWO players guaranteed with roster spots from 2012 Francisco and Parnell.
So you can choose to ignore those facts and act like I owe you an apology but the truth is, he said the 2013 Roster would look different than the 2012 and as of now Acosta, Ramirez, Rauch, Young, Thole, Shoppach, Hairston, Torres and Bay are not on the Mets in 2013.
So nice try, nice swing and a miss.
swing and miss ?
u mean like re-arranging your definition of a consistent season when talking about david wright.
LOL
right now on january 15th, Kirk, Duda, Spin, Baxter are at the top of the org chart in terms of outfielders.
If that does not change by Opening Day, are you willing to join us?
You can choose the ball or you can choose the sword
I know you do not understand what I am telling you, but you must choose
LOL Is it really a case of repenting Sinner?
Or is it more like an apostle denying his savior?
JESSEP’s “off-season” really means 2012-2013-2014-2015-2016′s offseason’s….
Other than Thole…Which of those players you claimed are gone were actualy improved on?
Who replaces Bay? Who is replacing Spin? Two guys who were only signed to Minor League contracts? AAAA players?
Is that really any better than the guys you would have jumped ship for if they were still here?
I know (as others do) that you turned your grief into glory MERELY on the basis of the Dickey Trade….
Which essentially is a swap of Cy Young Pitcher for a catcher with back and knee issues.
Just about everything else you said would make you jump the good ship alderson has either been met or if change was made it was change towards AAAA talent not any reasonable attempt at improving upon what was there when you were ready to jump.
And if d’Arnaud doesn’t do well you pretty much got a worse team now than you the one you said you would jump ship for.
Mate – jury is still out on Ike – and it was out last winter before he hit .226.
Since hitting lefties well in 2010, the ML lefty pitchers have the book on him – throw him outside curves and sliders and watch him flail.
This year is the most important time in Ike’s career. Can he figure out a way of hitting lefties against or will he become a platoon hitter. .174 and a combined OPS of .560 ain’t going to do it.
I know I’ve posted this countless number of times but Ike hit .228 in September. So for those who think he had a stellar second half of the year – think again.
And about those 32 dingers. He hit most of them in the second half of the year when the Mets were way out of it. For those who follow baseball it’s not that unusual for batters to get better pitches when their team is losing. When the opposing team is ahead, pitchers tend to throw more strikes so as not to put base runners on.
“For those who follow baseball it’s not that unusual for batters to get better pitches when their team is losing”
Yes that explains why Lucas Duda was able to knock the Braves out of the playoffs in 2011.
O wait…
I think the statement is self-explanatory.
What does Duda have to do with Ike Davis? I reckon the better comparison is Dave Kingman who’s teams always lost and yet he would hit 40 homers because his one run didn’t make a difference.
More than half of Davis’ home runs were solo. 17 homers = 17 RBI. So pitchers would challenge a one dimensional power hitter like Davis with their teams ahead.
Is your argument that batters don’t get better pitches to hit when their team is behind so as not to walk them and potentially start a rally.?
“He hit most of them in the second half of the year when the Mets were way out of it. ”
this is a great way of devaluing Ike’s production.
I think Ike did a good job of devaluating his own production.
.227 for the year. .
228 in September.
Against lefty pitching a .225 on base percentage.
Mentioning that most of his homers were hit when the Mets as a team were crash and burning is a great way of devaluating production?
Ok
Ike led the NL in HR hit for the 2nd half !
and that was with NO PROTECTION ( the new default excuse we give DW when he doesnt hit like its 2008 …the old default excuse was the park dimensions )
I don’t really think the “getting better pitches when the team is losing” has any real bearing. Maybe that happens when a team is losing big and the opposing pitcher just wants to throw strikes…but the Mets weren’t losing that big that often. In close games pitchers aren’t going to be throwing meatballs. And only 10 of Ike’s HRs the whole year were when the Mets were losing (he hit 12 when they were ahead, 10 when they were tied)….and its likely only a small number of those were ones where they were losing by a substantial amount.
If we’re going to “criticize” the second half….it could be said that sometimes Sept numbers of players can be inflated if they face a lot of minor league callups (but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Ike). Or maybe in the case of the Mets (especially if it was another player and not Ike) people might get on the player for doing much of his best work after the team fell out of it. But ignoring that end of it…month to month splits aren’t really all that important – it’s a fairly small sample..,,if you include the 3 October games in Ike’s Sept numbers his average jumps to a more respectable .242.
RJ-
Good research. My point on better pitches is more a general attitude that teams have against teams who are struggling. A losing team doesn’t really scare anyone. Teams would look at the Mets line up and think that there is no one on it that could beat you – no one that you have to pitch around – and that includes Ike. If you don’t have to pitch around hitters naturally they will see more strikes.
But – “Ike led the NL in HR hit for the 2nd half !” You really have to look at the team record (baseball is a team sport) to see the relevance of him leading the NL in homers for the 2nd half.
The question is – should we lock up Ike in a long term right now?
IMHO – I think the jury is out.
Can he become a great hitter? I don’t know – he certainly has shown glimpses. Overall he is too inconsistent to lockup if we don’t have to. Let’s see what he does this year – I would love to see .280 – .290 with 25 homers .350 OBA and 90 – 100 RBI. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts, improve his on base and hit lefties better. I’m sure we’ll have this discussion again at some point.
‘IMHO – I think the jury is out”
and the more certain you are, the more it is going to cost you.
it is good business to take a calculated risk now than wait til Ike hits 50 HR in his free-agent year.
also in the event that we happen to find another Ike in our system, Ike’s controlled status would only enhance his trade value
one name to keep an eye on is vicente lupo
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2012/07/mmo-prospect-spotlight-vicente-lupo-has-power-to-spare.html
.
Mate -
I don’t entirely disagree with you. But, when making a long term deal, the Mets will point to the low batting average, low on base average and the current inability to hit lefties. Ike’s people will point to 32 dingers, 90 ribbies and a great glove.
I honestly can’t predict which way Ike will head this season. That’s what I mean by the jury is still out.
The Mets made a smart move in locking up both Wright and Reyes when they were young but both those guys had established themselves – Ike hasn’t. He’s too inconsistent.
However, if you can lock him up with a team friendly contract then they should do it. And, as you say, he is more valuable locked up to trade if he doesn’t work out and if he does work out – get that batting average up, get the on base up and hits lefties with a .260+ average then we’re laughing.
Lock up Ike???
Load up the pipe with another rock.
This is ludicrous, I like Ike, but he is far from a sure bet you need to secure because you think you may end up paying too much for in a couple of years.
Lets stop out thinking ourselves.
If he blows up & we cant afford him next year, then so be it.
If we lock him up & commit 80M for 10 years & he turns out to be more of the way he started off 2012, we’re screwed.
It depends entirely how much money is being talked about. Neise’s contract was for relatively little money, so locking him up made sense even if he hadn’t yet shown the type of consistency or durability one would look for in a young pitcher.
For Ike, if it’s a very team-friendly deal, then locking him up in ST is fine also. Anything more and they should wait. He just hasn’t shown the type of consistency that David Wright has achieved throughout his career. Obviously the freak injury he suffered when Pelfrey failed to direct infield traffic put a crimp in Ike’s playing time and career development. So 2013 will be important for him to demonstrate who he really is.
“For Ike, if it’s a very team-friendly deal, then locking him up in ST is fine also. Anything more and they should wait”
Completely agree. If he wants to be a Met and takes a team friendly deal? Sure, why not? Otherwise you aren’t really losing anything by waiting for now.
“Obviously the freak injury he suffered when Pelfrey failed to direct infield traffic…”
Actually that call is the catcher so it is Paulino who was at fault.
Perhaps both Pelfrey and Paulino are to blame then.
If you watch the video, Pelfey has the ball in sight all the way and just watches it, doing nothing, as it goes up and comes down.
Paulino is in a crouch when the ball is hit, has to stand upright and remove his mask. He has less time to find the ball and track it.
I agree with the sentiment in the OP. Whether it makes sense really depends on how much
money we are talking. I’m not sure what $$ would make sense. I don’t think he’s shown enough that you’d throw a ton of money at him (but generally the pre-arb/pre-FA deals don’t require that much). He seems to be pretty solid at least (and has plenty of time to improve). and generally even “pretty solid” can generate pretty big money in arbitration after a few years so it does often make sense financially for the team to buy out the arbi years (and then maybe a couple years of FA).
interesting how the mets go on a smear campaign on Ike Davis in September…and now have to enter arbitration. The arb process is designed for settlement. A team doesn’t want to bash a player’s performance right in front of said player. A player doesn’t want to sit there and listen to his team criticize him in order to save a few bucks. So usually the two sides meet halfway.
Bashing a guy right unnecessarily right before you have to bash him necessarily doesn’t sound like good business
what’s ironic, is that Ike davis NOT being sent down in the early part of the year, brought about his Super-Two status in 2013…
the mets easily could’ve sent Ike down when he was hitting under .200…
I guess it takes more than 3 Ivy League GM’s to screw a lightbulb ?
Damaja -
I agree that the Mets way of negotiating is to start with a smear campaign. They have done it before and they will continue to do it.
They (probably Jeff – but I don’t know for sure) whisper into a few friendly writer’s ears and get unsubstantiated accusations published.
Shame on the Mets for doing this – and shame on the so-called sports journalists for allowing themselves to be used.
LOL
its their way of lowering the price !!!
kinda sorta like arbitration minus the judge
Yeah – but it also lowers the perception of the front office. As if they need help doing that!
It’s really kind of a moot issue if you ask me since Ike really should not be interested in locking himself up long term to whatever his current price is.
He hit 32 HRs but his BA was in the dumps and I’m sure both Ike and his Agent realize that they will get plenty of money in Arbitration alone and would rather wait until Ike has a full and more consistent season.
Then when his arb number goes up even higher next year thats when both sides have it in thier interests to buy and sell out his remaining arb years and maybe even extend past it to get another year or two of control.
At Ike’s age (26 currently) he has 3 years of arb left (not including this year) and will be 29 when heis due to hit FA so if they wait a year they could easily get to a 5 year deal which is right in line with the opinion some here love so much regarding player prime. He would go FA at 32 and then you decide if he is worth a big payday that with another 5 or 6 year contract could make him close to being a Met for Life…
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