3
2013
How Many Games Will The Mets Win In 2013?
An article by 
How many games will the Mets win in 2013?
Will the Mets will advance to the playoffs before 2015?
Matt S. - Who knows, but my gut tells me 75 wins. Sit tight ladies and gentleman, these next couple seasons are going to be painful. However the dust will settle and the stars can potentially align in 2015.
Rob (Tie Dyed) – Kind of hard to guess but I see us winning about 65 games. I also think we’ll draw less than a million.
XtreemIcon – I think the Mets will win between 75 and 78 games in 2013. If some of the kids hit the ground running, they could push for .500, though it’s more likely some will require an adjustment period. As far as the playoffs, I don’t like to make predictions on playoff appearances. If the Mets win 90 games in 2014 and don’t make the playoffs (like the Rays did in 2012), is that a bad season?
Drew – I see a team that could lose 90 or more games. It was already a bad team and now they don’t have a true ace that won more than 25% of their game last season. As for when they will go to the playoffs again, it’s hard to say, but certainly not before 2015 of that I’m certain.
Jessica – I really can’t predict how many games the Mets will win in 2013, especially in the middle of December. But, Dickey won 20 games for the Mets this year. They need to come up with a way to make up those 20 wins, whether it’s through acquiring a bat in the outfield or perhaps a bullpen that can actually save games. Dickey was a lot of what made the Mets exciting in 2012 and I’m not sure I see that excitement just yet going into 2013. With the younger direction in which we are going, I don’t see the Mets making the playoffs before 2015, maybe even 2016. I can’t wait to see what happens when the young guys click and all the pieces of the puzzle are complete.
Gregg Hopps – The 2013 NY Mets will be a .500 ball club. Maybe five games over, or five under. The Mets could be contenders in short order, if their young guys continue to play the way they’ve played, and if Sandy can nail down one or two decent outfielders. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see the Mets make a post season appearance within the next two or three years.
Satish – 70. Advance to the playoffs? If the guys in charge stay the same, no. I do think that Alderson has done his job by reducing payroll so he might be out of here soon.
Joe Spector – The Mets will win about 70 to 80 games next year and I believe in 2014 they will be by far a more playoff contending team.
Craig – They will go as far as David Wright and Ike Davis can take them because after those two I don’t see any real offensive consistency. The team has no speed in a park built for it, and no booming power hitters who can give them an advantage at home. Pitching should be fine, but in the end we have a 70 win team in 2013. I don’t believe the hype that this team will be playoff caliber in 2014. Maybe 2015 but that would mean hitting jackpot on all six of their top prospects and the law of averages say that three of them will be busts.
Jim Mancari – I am definitely the most optimistic Mets fan that I know. I have seen the team struggle the past few seasons, and every Opening Day — no matter who is on the field — I say the same thing: “This is our season!” And on April 1, 2013, I’ll be saying the same thing. All I have to use as an example is the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays and the 2012 Oakland Athletics. Listen, it could happen. The young players can gel, and the guys can have career seasons. The realist in me is saying that making the playoffs in 2013 is a long-shot, but if the Mets were pre-determined to fail, then nobody would watch. That’s why they play the games. That’s why it is fun to be a Mets fan. Imagine if this team actually does make a playoff tun? We will be reliving it for years. Have some hope Mets fans! Why can’t the 2013 Mets be a Cinderella story?
Connor – The Mets will win 76 games in 2013. It will be a tough year, but I have a feeling we will see some major progression out of younger players. This team is going to once again be very young. I’m intrigued to see how Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey fare in full seasons and the second half should be interesting as well with the possible additions of Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud. As for whether they will make the playoffs before 2015: yes. The Mets will make the playoffs in 2014 and 2015.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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Kind of hard to make any predictions at this point for 2013, let alone the following years.
I don’t know right now what that BP or OF is going to look like come opening day. Heck, don’t even know who the 5th SP will be. I suspect it will take until the end of ST to identify who takes up the last several 25 man roster spots.
If you put a gun to my head though and made me give an answer for how many wins next season, I’d got with 77 right now.
I said 68 last year and 72 the year before. In a attempt to be not overly pessimistic I will say 65 (meaning I really think it’s 62).
You’re going to drown in “Alderson isn’t finished with his offseason yet” replies to this. Because he’s going to get Kyle Lohse as a starter, trade for Justin Upton, and sign Michael Bourn, and that will change everything.
I have no idea !
I look at is as addition by subtraction. I hate where they are right now but Bay is gone and Cowgill is here as well as Brown. Both better than Bay at this point. Outfield sucks….but it won’t be as bad as last year. All young guys, Duda, Nieuwenheis, Valdespin have a bit more feel for the pressure in NY now. And, we now have a catching corps that is far better than what we had last year. And Davis has finally found his stroke. Based on what we have on the field in offense and defense compared to last year, add 5 wins. And for pitching? The groundwork has been laid for the best staff in baseball. Maybe not this year but after this year batters will not want to face the Mets pitching! I think we make up Dickey’s 20 wins now. 5 picked up through subtraction (Bay, defense and offense) maybe 10 wins for Harvey, 15 for Gee and Niese? It’s close. Like someone said above who the heck really knows, but if the young guys really “click” (I hate that term) 80 wins is within reach.
Ron are you a cousin or a nephew of Fred Wilpon?
I honestly don’t think that the addition by subtraction theory works with Bay. Lets be honest, Bay didn’t get to play that much last year (only 194 AB’s)…he was either hurt or on the bench. When he did play early in the season, the Mets won despite of him and when he had that couple of weeks to save his job, the team was already on the path of losing badly because of horrible bullpen performances.
Ture, Bay was a huge hole in the lineup and a wasted roster spot…but whoever ends up playing right field (assuming Duda is in left) is going to hit maybe 70 points higher than Bay? Hit maybe four more HR’s 20 more RBI? That’s not really going to help win a lot of games…now figure in that last year Bay was a pretty good fielder in left and Torres (while was disapointing) played a decent CF…now we have neither…we don’t even know who will be in the OF…Duda is slow, Spin is inexperianced and a problem in the clubhouse, Baxter is OK, but not an everyday player…I like Nieuwenheis, but not sure if he can hit yet and the rest of the pool are serviceable at best fielders with not history to show that they are better than average AAAA type players.
It’s not like our LF was good no matter who was playing…look at the numbers; Bay started in 65 games. LF hit about 15 HRs (8 from Bay) batted .234 and got about 48 RBI (20 from Bay). The worst thing is, the majority of production from LF came from Scott Hairston who probably gone too…
As for the pitching perdictions, everyone of our pitchers now have to more up in depth chart and have no one in the pen that can hold leads. Plus you add in the fact that non of these guys have hit 200 innings recently if ever, the pen is going to get burned out by May.
Neise is a number #1, he’ll probably be good for 10-15 wins…Santana won’t get more than 10, mostly because he’ll get traded if he shows he’s healthy and can perform. Harvey and Gee will probably get 20-25 together and our unknown 5th starter might get us close to 10 wins. That’s about 50 wins from the starting rotation…not a good number especially seeing how weak the pen is…I say 70 wins is probably the under/over mark for 2013.
What happens to Santana’s spot if he gets traded? Zero wins? The expectation is that Wheeler comes up to take his spot, you don’t think our number one prospect is good for any wins assuming he takes the bulk of Santana’s starts?
Seems unlikely.
Well lets look at it this way then…Lets say that Santana performs next year close to what he did last year…that should get him about five wins by the all star break and maybe six wins by the trade deadline. so let’s even give him the benefit of a doubt and say he gets eight wins and gets traded…that leaves about 1/3 of a season for Wheeler (assuming he’s the guy and he’s ready).
Now if we use Harvey as the bench mark, Harvey put up three wins in ten starts…so the reality we’re looking at is between Wheeler and Santana is between 10-15 wins between the two of them. That’s assuming that Santana is traded and Wheeler takes his place and IF Santana is traded, it means that he’s pitching well. We also have to figure the possibility that Santana is done and/or injured and can’t pitch a full season. We also have to assume that Wheeler is ready to pitch in MLB. The Mets will probably want to wait as long as possible before promoting Wheeler (like they did with Harvey). That means that we will also have 4-5 starts from a complete bust from guy who might win one or two starts?
That means that we’ll probably see Collin McHugh/Jeremy Hefner/Chris Schwinden do some filler games to…
I still say that leaves the team around 70 wins total.
Addition by Subtraction?
Lets try that…..
2-2=More than Two?
In what universe?
Too early. I would say based on current roster 70-80 wins. Any team is capable of a 10 game difference based on circumstances during the season.
Point blank: 80.
If I had to make a guesstimate, I’d agree with you.
not any less then 73 wins for the 2013 mets
I say 78 wins in 2013.
Start with 75 wins ( Pythagoran W-L in 2012)
Minus 5 Dickey is gone
Plus 2 more starts for Gee and Santana ( and Wheeler as the backup)
Plus 2 full season from Harvey instead of Young / Pelfrey / Batista / Schwinden
Plus 2 better bullpen ( healthier FF, promising kids, plus probably another veteran or two)
Plus 1 upgrade at C shortterm ( a lot more longterm)
Plus 1 Ike better season
Minus 1 Wright lesser season
Minus 3 no Hairston / Torres
Plus 2 Cowgill / Brown replace Bay
Plus 1 Nieuwenhuis improvesl
Plus 1 Duda improves
Minus 2 an unforeseen injury
Plus 2 an unforeseen breakout
= total: 78
I don’t know how you figured that our, but however you did, it’s impressive.
Oh and I should have added: give or take five based on luck, so it should be between 73 and 83…
But you forgot to add a +10 for an Act of God (Sandy Alderson) which should then make it 83 and 93.
Or a -10 for all his evilness after sabotaging our 2011 and 2012 World Series runs ?
LoL, This
I might add something like +2 for SOS, only 4 games against the Yankees the year and KC and CWS vs O’s and Rays, but overall a good list.
KC and CWS vs O’s and Rays, but overall a good list.”
All those teams are happy to see the mets in their schedule, not the other way around…
What if that injury is to Ike or Niese? I would think the effect is a lot more than a -2 since we know there is nobody close to the major league level who can play 1B or a LH starter. Lose either of those two guys and you lose a bunch more games.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/59613/how-the-2013-mets-make-the-playoffs
You will enjoy this article.
It’s hard to tell when it’s only January but I don’t see them winning more than 70 games. They lost Dickey, their outfield is a mess, and the bullpen hasn’t been improved but if we acquire a pitcher like Marcum or another decent free agent, then they could potentially win 75 games, if everything goes right.
100!
Why stop at 100! 162 wins!!!
They probably will get Strasburg a few times so be safe and go 159-3.
Are we really gonna go with the whole pythagorean record now too???? As if it wasn’t enough sabermetric crap that we’ve been put to deal with from the gooners now we’re gonna use that to determine whether this team sucks or sucks more???? Amazing….
It sure seems like a better starting point than a pure guess out of the blue.
How do you know that all your little point will be like that? You know how many games the mets won based on pure luck? do you know how many more games we will win based on ike or wright? that is stupid… you go by the roster and how each player we have… We suck in offense, defense, bullpen, average SP, horrible bench, mediocre coaches to say the least and most important, a FO that doesn’t believe in the team winning, that equals 65 wins…
Dont worry Alex I have a better way of calculating Wins and Losses….I ate a lot of corn last night and took a dump the next day needless to say. The Crap I took resembles the team the Mets will put on the field next year. So what I did was count each corn kernel…….And Poof! Walaah!
I got the Answer, which is………..Who Cares! All we need to know is that we will suck badly and wont contend for a playoff spot
this team will win 65 games….
I feel better about the Mets chances already.
Well, i predicted them to win 69 games last year and they won 74… so…. Winning 5 more games is feeling good??? Good luck with that!
No, just the fact that all of your predictions tend to be wayyy off (I.E. Marlins, Yanks, Tigers) and in general, this is no 65-win team. Out of all the complaints you made about the team, the main one that stands out and has the most merit is the bullpen. I can deal with a questionable OF. Seen it before (2000), but having a good foundation of arms in the rotation (which they have) and the bullpen is what will be the difference maker.
this team is worst than the team that won 74 games if that’s possible…
You forgot to say on paper.
Bingo.
I think it will be a .500 team.
I like the staff of Niese, Santana, Gee, and Harvey better than Niese, Dickey, Harvey, and Young which is what the Mets had the last few months of the season. The key will be health.
Like was mentioned, catching was improved even if Buck is the one. Thole/Nickeas/Johnson/Shoppach were such a mess that anything is better.
The BP falls into the same category. As it looks now, I like the load up with arms in ST and hold an old fashioned shootout. Let the guys pitch their way onto the team. Those who dont make the grade, ship them out. Plus, as with catching, 2012 BP finished last…so it can only improve.
As for the OF, again we have a low bar. Last year was pathetic. Again, I like the bring in numbers and let them at it. Can Kirk and Duda be as bad as they were last year? If they are, they are shipped out. Den Dekker, if he can control his Ks in AAA, is waiting in the wings. Hairston’s production, presuming he isnt back, will need to come from somewhere. The advantage the Mets have is that nobody lost was putting up Pujols type numbers.
I expect Ike to have a good year with him and Murphy improving defensively (I feel Ike had a down year defensively…maybe his woes at the plate got to him). Tejada will do better by being there a full year. And Wright is a solid .300/20/90 guy.
Overall, this team is better than last years if it can remain healthy. The simple truth is the organization still have little depth so one or two injuries derail any chance at a decent season.
And Wright is a solid .300/20/90 guy”
Funny you say that, there was an article that was written in may about the possibility of him hitting 400 LMAO.. Then we all know how the second half played out for him and the mets…
.400? Maybe for the month of April.
I believe too many overvalue Wrights production. In Citi Field, and at this point in his career, he is not a 30 HR guy. His career average of slightly over .300 should remain as long as he is willing to go the other way. He is a very good hitter but not the slugger people try to picture him as.
His year end totals are very consistent…just how he arrives at them is not.
again, there was an article that was made in the end of may asking whether he could hit 400 or not.. also, we’ve seen this guy throughout his career, he’s a streaky hitter, when he’s hot he’s hot, when he’s cold (Second half) then he can’t buy a hit… Up and down player. no more no less.. we have a guy who will hit around 280-300 15-20 and 75-90 making $20 million per year… awesome!
The hope with Wright’s contract is that he can maintain this level of production for 4 years before he really starts to slide. After that, with the way salaries are going, $18M a year might not be such an outlandish salary…hell that might be what a 4th OF is making come 2017 or so. Either way, 7 or 8 year contracts never work out for guys when given at Wright’s age. To think this one will miraculously pan out is crazy. Off field, from an organizational perspective, it might be worth it. But no way anyone can substantiate it from a baseball perspective.
the last coupole of years on the deal are actually quite a bit lower. 13 maybe? Pretty sure no higher than 15.
and the way salaries are already trending, by then that will be “chump change”. Hell, Vicky is already getting a 13mill/year salary, and he sucks.
Right, because is wright you’re already looking ahead on his contract to make an excuse in case he under performs so you can say he’s right on par with the league avg.. yet with other players is the same he didn’t deserve that contract right? You guys keep amazing me every day. the man is not worth that contract, and if anything he’s the biggest culprit the mets are losers… But hey, he speaks well english and his dimples are adorable..
The its an average of $17.25 mil per year not 20, Your hero gets an average of 17.67 for inferior production.
Maybe this will help in remembering Wright’s average annual salary.
http://realdirtymets.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Wilpon-Candy-Bars-4-Wright.png
You have an obsession
I think the Met’s have a chance to win 80 to 85 games this year. Lots of upside.
Lots of upside”
Lots of upside? Ok, help me out here, Ike, Harvey….. What else??
Dont forget Laffey Taffy and Cowgirl, Alex.
Maniac, ohhh, and brown… you are right. lots of upside!
68 wins….. losing Dicky’s 20 wins figures to be a minus 10 if Neise, Santana and Harvey can pick up the difference. The pen is a total unknown but last year it stunk so I expect more of the same or a bit worse. Fifth starter???/Outfield is a friggin’ joke. Thinking about it 68 is a bit high. They could lose 100.
you forgot to add in some wins for the guy that replaces him in the rotation.
say that he wins 1/2 as many. That means the rest of the rotation needs to make up 10 to “break even”. I actually think Santana, assuming he does not get trampled again (Mets must lead the league every year in self-inflicted infield ankle tramples) should win a few more games. Gee also should have quite a few more.
and Neise likely could add a couple, depending on how things break.
Odds are Dickey was not winning 20 again anyway. Just the way it works, usually the different SPs go up and down each year due to the variances from the offense scoring and pen taking care of them. So who knows, maybe it is Neise’s turn for 20!
Do you know how bad a team has to be to lose 100 games? I don’t think you do.
Also, the thing about Dickey is he got the most run support during his starts on the team. And the bullpen only blew 1 game for him. Granted, the bullpen thing is influenced by the fact that he lead the majors in complete games, but as bad as everyone made the pen, they only cost Dickey 1 game.
Not to take anything away from Dickey. He was still the strike out king and his knuckleball made the defense’s job a lot easier. My point is, even if they are huge shoes to fill, it is not hard imagining an aggregate of his 20 wins coming around.
Not only that but the chances of Dickey repeating those 20 wins this year for the Mets were 100-1 IMO.
74 – 20 + 6 additonal wins from Santana + 6 added wins from Gee + 3 from Niese +7 from Harvey + no change (11 wins from 5th Starter/ Spot) + similar performance from Pen = 76 wins…which surprises me. i had been thinking no better than 65.
C’mon if your going to bother to guess have some fun with it.
Santana & Niese will win 15 games.
Harvey will win 12 games.
Mejia will win 8 games.
F. Francisco will win the Rolaids Relief Man Award.
Ike Davis & David Wright will win both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award.
d’Arnaud will win Rookie of the Year.
Mr Tejada will go to the ASG.
Capt Kirk will lead all MLB Centerfielders in Strikouts and RBI’s.
Mets will make the wildcard.
They will win the wildcard round on a controversial call that awards them a game winning hit.
Mets will then get to the World Series where they will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays where they will play the greatest 7 game series in World Series history with the Mets winning it all on a Josh Thole passed ball in extra innings allowing the winning run to score.
The Mets then at the end of the ticker tape parade while receiving the key to the city will announce they are selling the team to Mark Cuban and Cuban immediately announces he will increase payroll by signing the 1st $300M player.
Ha! If only….
Kirk very well could lead all ML CFs in Ks. And a Thole passed ball is not unheard of.
.500 target, +/- 5 games.
This team will be lucky to win 58 games.
Assuming they don’t go to the post-season which is a pretty safe assumption, the number of wins matters much less than how Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, d’Arnaud and Nieuwenhuis perform on the major league level as well as the progress made by Flores, Nimmo, and Syndergaard in the minors. If they all have good years and one or two have exceptionally good years, then I’ll feel the Mets are building a foundation for a playoff run in a year or two. Establishing Edgin or Parnell as a legitimate closer would also be nice. That’s really all I want out of this season. On the other hand, if the Mets were to win 85 games (but still miss the playoffs) because John Buck, Frank Francisco, and Johan Santana have big seasons, but Harvey, Wheeler, and d’Arnaud falter, I’d consider the season a failure.
Well, it could be argued that the win total will be a (less than scientific) indicator of how Niese, Harvey etc etc are coming around.
And I think if guys like Santana and Buck have big years, they won’t finish the season here.
Just putting the words Parnell and closer in the same sentence send chills up my spine.
I think Edgin has the make up to be a closer…Parnell has twice proven he cant hack it.
After a lot of soul searching, countless calculations, my very own process of predicting wins based on various charts, formulas, test tubes, and a quick look at the periodic table…I comfortable in my hypothesis that the Amazin’s will win 7 games.
The Mets will win 72 games, continuing our rebuilding by winning fewer and fewer games while selling harder and harder how bright the future will be…if it ever gets here.
Here is the help on the upside,,,, Harvey, Neise, Gee, Wheeler by mid season, Drnaud by mid season if not May which is more likely, Duda, Kirk and Cowgill combo in center, Famillia in pen, Edgin, Carson,,,,, and more than like a more consistent year from Santana… I mean unless you think these guys peaked already.