Comments on: Hits & Misses: Upton, Hairston, Bourn and the Dynamic Duo

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:55:37 +0000

LOL Glad to help!

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:54:01 +0000

Thos are Arbitration awarded numbers….Which are much lower than FA would bring is someone could bid on him….

FA salary is based on what other players get for similar performance…
When you look at the prices some lesser OFs went for it’s not rediculous to think Bourne is worth AS MUCH if not more than most of them.

The Pick is the one thing holding teams back from paying that.

By: Hotstreak

Hotstreak — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:48:55 +0000

Thanks Metsie

By: Don

Don — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:48:21 +0000

Here are Bourn’s salary numbers for last three years: 2010: $2,400,000
2011: $4,400,000
2012: $6,845,000
How did he suddenly become worth $15,000,000 a year for each of the next four years. What am I missing here?

By: Doctor K

Doctor K — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:42:52 +0000

I don’t see how making the playoffs in 1990 changes the fact that we stunk for 6 years following. Maybe if Strawberry stays things change but otherwise there was still nobody else coming through the system to keep the team afloat all those years. Same thing if they won it all in 99 or 2000. I don’t know how winning makes the next 4 years better. The stars were still aging and again no one in the system to sustain those 2 good years. If losing those games was the cause of the bad years that followed then why didn’t the Yanks tank after losing a big game 5 in 95? Why didn’t the Braves tank after losing back to back WS in 91 & 92? Why didn’t the Cardinals tank after losing the big games in 04 an 05? The Redsox lost the big games on the field in 2003. Answer. They continued to develope players. The Mets didn’t. Had we developed players we wouldn’t have had so many lean years.

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:36:40 +0000

Well just on a casual look (2009 and before since those are reasonable to say 4 years they should be in the MLB)

2009 – 3 All Stars – Strassburg, Crowe and Trout
2008 – 2 All Stars – Posey and Crow (who did not sign that year and got taken again in 2009)
2007 – 3 All Stars – Price, Wieters and Heyward
2006 – 3 All Stars – Longoria, Kershaw and Lincecum (Hon Mention Perez in Supplemental round)
2005 – 7 All Stars – Upton, Zimmerman, Braun, Romero,Tulowitzky, McCutchen, Bruce and Ellisbury (Hon Men: Bucholz Supplemental)
2004 – 4 All Stars – Verlander, Weaver, Butler and Hughes
2003 – 5 All Stars – Weeks, Hil, Cordero, Billingsley, and Quentin
2002 – 7 All Stars – Grienke, Fielder, Saunders, Kazmir, Swisher, Hamels, and Cain (Hon Mention Wright Supplemental)

Now lets assume some will be added to years 2006 – 2009 in the next few years…
About 5-6 on average will be All Stars (and maybe not amnnual all stars out of 30 picks every year….

And even then it’s usually one of the top 5 picks that gets there with top 10 second and all over the place after that!

By: Don

Don — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 19:12:44 +0000

I read, recently but can’t remember where, that a study of 1st round picks showed that about 35% became good major leaguers, but only about 20% proved to be excellent players. Does that jibe with the list of first rounders presented by Alex 68 above?

By: Alex68

Alex68 — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:46:05 +0000

Again, i mentioned them for a reason, pitching is what has given them the 2 WS and timely clutch hitting, they don’t blow teams out, they keep the game close and timely CLUTCH hits from their subpar players is what’s given them the 2 WS rings… Kudos to them but trust me, offensively they have NOBODY that scared you, but their pitching specially in the posteason is lock down…
Belt and sandoval combines for 20 HR and 119 RBI… Yeah, that’s really awesome… FDB

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:41:32 +0000

You problem seems to be you only count the FAs who fail and not the 20-30 picks a year that do….
Count up all the picks we have made in the last 20 years….
Tell me how many and what percentage of Picks have failed and then compare it to all of out FA acquisitions…

I think you will find that the Draft fails and busts FAR more often than FA does….
Because even if they were not worth the money they at least were STILL MLB players!
SOmething you can’t say about most of the picks.

By: Trs86

Trs86 — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:40:37 +0000

Might want to throw Bumgadner in as well…

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:38:50 +0000

You don’t have to go that far….
Leave a starter in an inning more than he should…
Don’t bunt a runner over to get into scoring position…
Don’t make a Lineup change when one might be the right move…
Tell a player to take a pitch or hit and run when he shouldn’t….

Managers have lots of ways to influence games and 99% of them can’t be second guessed or even exposed especially now where signs all come from the dugout

By: Donal

Donal — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:36:37 +0000

“Take the Giants for example, other than Posey, Cain and Lincecum, what other stars have basically come trough their minor league system? ”

You mean other than a 2 time Cy Young winner, perennial Cy Young candidate and the reigning MVP and former rookie of the year?

Seriously? That is your argument?

And you forgot about Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt.

By: Donal

Donal — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:15:24 +0000

And when we keep bringing in players that fail, maybe we should look at how we are doing things.

Of course, when you have 3 playoff appearances in 20 years while maintaining a huge payroll in the biggest market in the world, you should be reevaluating how you do things anyway.

By: Hotstreak

Hotstreak — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:13:41 +0000

The manager calls the next day’s pitcher. The manager will never tell a player to tank but just as in the Pete Rose betting scandal: The next days pitcher plays a vital role in the game. Just look at the pitching match ups and Vegas odds. Why should in my scenario t given above Collins pitch Niese who has 208 innings under his belt for a new season high pitch against the Braves in that last game. Lets discount possible injury to Niese (which is granting a lot). However since Harvey, Wheeler and Santana are on pitch counts and Gee went the day before its either Niese’s normal turn or a long man or a September call up.

By: peter

peter — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:02:08 +0000

Purposely tanking can be related to any sport with a draft, football as well. You have to assume the players themselves do not tank, they are professionals and many of them play hard to the end. And the young players who come up in September do not tank, they play hard because it is their chance to prove they belong. Anyone playing for a contract is playing hard till the end to get their contract. That is not an issue in my book.

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:39:15 +0000

No development is just an excuse for picks failing…
You can’t Polish a turd!

We have only had 7 Top 10 Picks in the last 20 years
And only Pelfrey, Harvey and WIlson showed any signs of being good…
Our problem is we always go for Pitching when we are there and Pitching is the highest risk of busting in the top 10 where taking an everyday player is much more likely to at least make the MLB.

Of the 7 top 10 picks we have taken 5.5 Pitchers with Goetz being LHP/OF and Preston Wilson SS.

So it’s not that we dont develop what we get we don’t get many shots at the top of the pack and when we do we risk it all on Pitching which busts more than any other position in the draft.

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:33:23 +0000

Yes but you have to take into account where they were picked in the 1st as well….

Harvey 7th overall….(Top 10 Pick)
Pelfrey 9th Overall…(Top 10 Pick as much as we hate him you can’t really say he was a bust when compared to guys like Humber)
Humber 3rd Overall…BUST!
Milledge 12th Overall….Closer to what we have this year…

We have only had 7 Top 10 Picks since 1992 (20 years)

This is as close to a top 10 pick as you can get without getting it….

I get the desire to have Bourne or to value the pick high…

But the decision shouldn’t be made merely based on the pick placement they need to do thier homework, Mock the draft to figure out WHO they think is going to be there to take with the pick and then make a decision from that standpoint.

Thats why I get on anyone who mentions Omar giving up Picks to get Wagner, Alou and K-Rod….
Where he was picking he decided the pick was better served as a trade off to get the guy he KNEW would help the MLB team immediatly as opposed to the MAYBE that wouldn’t help for 4 years while he was on the Farm.

By: Metsie

Metsie — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:23:45 +0000

So I guess calling them K2 is right out!
LOL

By: Hotstreak

Hotstreak — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:15:40 +0000

In the “best interest of baseball” has even a greater issue than the amateur draft and protection of 1st round picks. This issue is “purposefully tanking” in September to get a protected pick. Lets assume the Dodgers and Braves are competing for the first w/c. On the last day of the season: The Mets play the Braves and the Padres play the Dodgers. The Mets based on their relationship with Selig play the Braves to be spoilers and pitch Niese against the Braves while the Padres pitch a September “callup” against the Dodgers. The Padres lose, thus Dodgers win first w/c spot because the Mets played spoilers won and knocked the Braves into a one game playoff with the Cardinals for the 2nd w/c Padres get a protected 1st round pick and Mets do not. By the way the Cardinals beat the Braves in that one game playoff for the 2nd w/c. In this case the Mets and the Braves are both losers because the Padres purposefully tanked.

By: Hitman

Hitman — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 17:12:03 +0000

*groan*