18
2013
FanGraphs: Mets 2013 ZiPS Projections
An article by Craig Lerner
FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski has released his 2013 ZiPS projections for the New York Mets. You can check out all the projections which are very extensive right here.
I happen to enjoy the comments because they provide some context to how they determined their projections.
Batters
Because the author is consumed with sloth, he will not look at the 14 clubs previously considered in this series to verify it, but will instead state the following — namely, that there is a very good chance that Lucas Duda‘s projected defensive rating (-11 runs in left field) is the worst we’ve seen so far. It is also possible, if not likely, that Dan Murphy‘s own defensive projection (-7 runs at second base) is the second worst so far by that measure.
Are there bright spots among the Mets’ starting field players? Okay. David Wright remains an All Star candidate, certainly. Ruben Tejada‘s performance as a 22-year-old last season has bred encouragement for his future, as well. Furthermore, giving at-bats to players like Andrew Brown, Collin Cowgill, and Anthony Recker — that is, young-ish sorts who’ve demonstrated promise, but have little major-league experience — could produce gains. Otherwise, though, there is little cause for optimism from this squad in its present incarnation.
Pitchers
In 2012, only two pitching staffs (San Diego’s and Minnesota’s) produced a collective WAR of 6.0 or less — which is to say, posting a figure of 6.0 or less is something like an outlier so far as pitching staffs, and the WAR they produce, is concerned. That a system like ZiPS — conservative by nature, owing to the presence of regression — would project, then, a collective WAR as low as ca. 6.0 WAR for a team’s pitching staff is discouraging.
The Mets, of course, are not bound to the particular fate being presented here. It’s possible that Johan Santana will survive for more than 100 innings. It’s even more possible that Jenrry Mejia won’t be given the opportunity to make 13 or whatever entirely fruitless starts. It’s thirdly possible that the club will extract some sort of value from the bullpen. The likely outcome is poor, is the point.
Bench/Prospects
There is hope for the Metropolitans. As the attentive reader will note, three of the top seven WAR projections among Mets’ hitters belong to players (Travis D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares) who are likely to begin the season in the minors. Add in Wilfredo Tovar, and that ratio becomes four in 10. The pitching depth isn’t quite so, uh… deep, but ZiPS regards Zack Wheeler as nearly a league-average starter already. Finally — and with sympathies to his most vocal supporter — Josh Satin does not appear poised to take the world by storm in 2013.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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“The outfield is a joke”.
– Matt Cerrone, Executive Editor Metsblog.com
OK now your just spamming.
You know, I thought I read that comment before a little earlier. Are you on a mission or something?
I am just channeling my Mets anger and having some fun. That quote by Cerrone made today a great day. I never thought he would get as negative as that and the season hasn’t even started.
It’s my best spam ever. people at the HuffPo are like “who is Matt Cerrone”.
A lot of people at HuffPo are stumped for a reply when they are greeted with Hello.
Not exactly the plugged in community they profess to be.
They did have Hairston in the list, so project them even lower.
I see FanGraphs also see Lagares as a Met in 2013 and with a VERY solid WAR at that and even higher than Den Dekker. I’ve only been saying that for six months on MMO.
There’s a reader on this site that thought we were crazy to rank him 21 a few days ago.
I also saw AA released their top prospects yesterday and they had Lagares at 24.
I always said that MMO is a trend setter. We even got Matt Cerrone to say the outfield sucks.
I’ve been able to see DD in person and I was not impressed one bit. I was probably around August and he was so over matched and was defensively swinging. Seeing SA was lauding him at the beginning of last year and now doesn’t bring him up is not a good sign.
That’s funny Joe D. I’m that reader and its just my opinion. Yes, Lagaras had an amazing ’11 season, but last year I was hoping he’d build on it and I don’t think he did. I also believe there’s far too much talent in the system to have him within the top 25, that’s all.
I really don’t see him jumping up to the Mets this year at an early enough point to make an impact. Maybe in ’14, but honestly, by then I’d hope the Mets would use the 50 million coming off the books to get an actual major league caliber outfield and not have to take a chance with a prospect.
I fixed your typo because I know you are not one to resort to name-calling intentionally, right? You’re better than that, right?
baseball isn’t played on a spreadsheet. And if it was, it certainly would not be the guys presented here.
I’m still trying to figure out what he is using as the sort on his hitting charts (maybe it has no sorting at all just the random order he worked in)
How he got to 21 HRs for Ike is confusing….Maybe the spreadsheet is expecting Ike to miss time or maybe it figures last year was total fluke…
But then again it is a spreadsheet just spitting out numbers which would explain why they don’t really seem to make sense from what the eyes tell me about certain players….
I do Agree Ike’s HR number will go down to get the BA up….But I don’t think it will drop THAT much.
Anyway…Overall he seems to say the team is not looking good….
And I agree with him to an extent on that so he got the answer I expect even if I don’t know or often agree with how he got there…
The projections are based off the last 3 years, generally putting a bit more weight onto the most recent season. But it doesn’t take into account a lot of the things that can influence performance – e.g., Ike having the long layoff, getting off too the horrible start. It does take into account missed time, but doesn’t distinguish b/w different reasons the player might miss time and/or how that might change future projections (e.g., whether the player had a chronic injury, a fluke injury, whether he was send down)
It does have him missing some time (having 481 PA which is 100 less PA than last year…likely based on his missed time in 2011). So thats part of the HR drop (and factoring in his 2010- where his HR rate wasn’t as high). Career wise he has 58 HR in 1334 PA, using that rate would = about 21 HR in 481 PA…so thats probably where they get that number from.
Believe it or not but the Mets are in on Bourn right now, they are debating whether or not he is worth the draft pick, and of course what kind is deal in terms of money and years, maybe one year two year deal. Personally I like the platoon that’s set up, we need a right fielder that hits righty with pop that can hit fifth for this year. I can see Bourne in center with the platoon of cowgill and captain kirk moving to right field. Probably a long shot and dumb move, I still see that the Oakland A’s are still loaded in the outfield, why not try and make a deal for Mike Taylor? Or my original suggestion of Dariel Alvarez, he works out on the 24 or 25 of this month for teams, I actually am expecting that the Mets end up with him. That was my thinking for 2 months so sticking with it since he is still available. It is a perfect match.
I really hope they don’t sign Bourne. I don’t think he’s worth the money he’ll most likely get and then add the loss of a first rounder and that seals it for me.
However, considering last years draft, the loss of whoever they end up picking might not be a big deal. They do have two second rounders.
Also, where has it been reported they are in on Bourne? I’m highly skeptical and really doubt it. A trade seems more likely to me.
I agree about Bourn. Screams of a guy that has a rep out of proportion with what he actually delivers, and is a real risk to tail off soon. That, and there are often “no names” that when you dig deep, actually are as productive, if not more so, than the “name brand” guy.
Jon Heyman reported it on MLB Tonight and Hotstove. Frankly I don’t think Bourne is worth losing a number 11 pick and the slot money with it. I wouldn’t mind losing the pick for a Beltran type circa 2005 but not for an overrated Micheal Bourne. The Mets pick should be protected being that the only reason why they don’t have the 10th pick is because Pittsburgh failed to sign their first rounder. MLB has to fix that ridiculous rule.
Can somebody tell me what the heck ZIPS is, how it’s calculated and what it stands for?
Zoning Improvement Plan. It is something the post office implemented to make it easier to get the mail delivered.
Gee, I though everyone new that!
Wise guy! I thought you were being serious and was so glad to see someone responded as I had subscribed to the replies.
Serious is overrated.
Dan Szymborski’s performance projections (sZymborskI Projection System……seriously), which use three or four years of weighted data, depending on age. The projections are determined by tendencies of similar-type players.
That’s about as layman as can be. It’s all over google if you want more info.
that would have been my next guess. But I guess after you got elected chairman of the board or whatever it was, you want to show off.
anyway, even if if the methodology and data are sound, odds are that every one will still be off from reality. But, if really well done, as a team it should come fairly close as players average (cancel) out.
one thing that bothers me about some of these projections is that they assume a guy (even if putting up lousy numbers) will stay in for the season. As opposed to getting demoted and replaced.
If someone had a perfect projection system, they’d be very rich indeed. There’s a lot of things wrong with all kinds of projection. Some get it right more times than others.
Hi Craig,
It would be easier for a lot of us if Dan Zymbroski just spoke in traditional terms – like Duda’s glove and lack of range are going to cost the Mets a lot of runs than most other outfielders would due to his lack of speed and range, let alone his ability to hold onto the caught ball. I think most all of us recognize that.
So why the math when we knew this with our own eyes? Was it necessary to break it down to such infinite detail when we all get the idea anyway?
It all depends upon how much his bat is needed to offset his costly glove in coordination with the team’s overall offense and defense Currently, we have two other holes in the outfield so his bat is needed because that is also reflected in the batting order. Our bullpen is going to give up a lot of runs on it’s own as well so it’s a double-whammy.
Had we more depth in the pen and two other outfielders who could give us a combination of capable enough hitting and fielding Duda’s defensive shortcomings would be less of a liability. Lucas is going to have to pick it up a few notches with his bat for him to remain a regular platoon player. Even at this point, if he was part of a better club (be it the Mets or somebody else) he wouldn’t even be part of a platoon simply because of that glove. It’s clubs like the Mets that give players like him more of an opportunity to play.
So again, why the need to refer to a defensive rating formula?
How much better does Duda have to hit to offset his glove? Does he have to hit .250? How about .280? Maybe 20 home runs? Or 30? Tell us exactly what Duda has to do with the bat to offset his glove.
.260 20 HRs keeps him in the MLB….
.280 25+ Hrs keeps him as an option in LF…
Anything above that .(290 25+) probably makes him an All Star someday!
Not what I asked. What will he have to produce offensively to make him a “break even” player considering his defense?
First my answer DID answer your question which did not say WHICH defense you referred to….
But since you seem to want it all laid out like the answers to a test….
.260 20 HRs keeps him in the MLB….Probably as a 1B Maybe as a bench 4th OF
.280 25+ Hrs keeps him as an option in LF…There is you break even….
and the .290 25+ would make every forget about his fielding altogether…
Ok, so if he hits under .280 with fewer than 25 home runs, then he merely breaks even. Great. Now tell me how you arrived at that answer.
Maybe instead of playing Quizmaster you should answer your own question instead of hoping someone gives an answer you can mock instead….
What would it take for YOU to say the glove isn’t important?
We are supposed to be here to express OUR OWN opinions not ask someone else for thiers…
“What would it take for YOU to say the glove isn’t important?”
That’s your problem right there. The glove is NEVER not important. It’s thinking like that which led to all the players playing out of position on this team, with no regard to defense at all. Guys like Duda and Murphy and Thole being depended on.
I see your still refusing to tell anyone what it would take for YOU to think he’s breakeven…
I wonder if thats because he can NEVER be good enough for you no matter what he does or where he plays?
And if you set YOUR bar for him and he meets it, you don’t want any record of what you said to come back and haunt you?
You asked a question and I answered it…
Thats what he would have to do to
1) not have his career end and apply for work at the paint store
2) Have his bat be valuable enough to offset his bad glove
and
3) what he would have to do to be considered by anyone (except you apparently) to be a solid player and potential All Star.
If those answers aren’t good enough for you then I suggest you ANSWER your own question and we will debate from there…
Hi XtreemIcon,
By that I meant he would have to be more reflective of 2011 than 2012. How much so to remain in the lineup – with his limited glove work becoming too costly to justify – is something that TC will have to decide. But he will know it as he sees it and would not have to refer to numbers If Lucas returns to to his rookie form and 2012 was simply a sophomore jinx, I see no problem. However, if Lucas’ bat is somewhere in the middle, his defense is going to create a problem.
As I also mentioned, part of that decision will be team dependent. How the rest performs both offensively and defensively will affect Duda’s status. The better the team plays the less important the defensive hole in left becomes.
I’m rooting for Duda so only raised these questions since the point was made about the defensive runs he accounts for. As said, it might not be so important if the rest of the team plays well.