29
2013
Duda Faced Live Pitching, Will Be Ready For Spring Training
An article by 
Good news from the New York Mets on projected left fielder Lucas Duda, who underwent November 5th surgery to repair a fractured right wrist.
Duda took swings in the batting cage on Monday, and then faced live pitching for ten minutes at the team’s complex in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Mets hitting coach Dave Hudgens has been working with Duda at the Mets complex since both of them arrived two weeks ago.
Last week, Duda began hitting off a tee, so this is another significant step forward in his rehab as he continues his recovery from the wrist injury.
Duda, who turns 27 next week, suffered the injury while moving furniture. It now appears that he’ll be ready to participate in full workouts when Mets camp officially opens in just under two weeks.
Much is expected from Lucas Duda this season. He may just be the only legitimate power bat in the outfield for the Mets, and is expected to transition from right field to left in 2013. He’ll probably be batting number five in the lineup behind cleanup hitter Ike Davis.
I’m very hopeful that Duda will have a solid comeback season this year.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Good to see Duda already at camp.
Pitchers & Catchers February 11 #Can’tComeSoonEnough
I know you are very high on Kirk, I’m feeling that way about Duda. If we both end up being right maybe it won’t be so bad. LGM!
Add Tommy2cat and how he feels about Andrew Brown and we have an outfield.
Yes, Tommy was pretty ecstatic about Brown the other day. He even got me a little excited after I read his comment. lol
I am also intrigued by Brown. I think he is going to surprise a lot of people, hitting against LHP. And if the Met FO also feel this way, it would go a long ways toward explaining why they were not all that worried about getting Hairston back to be the platoon guy (and did not want to guarantee him a FT gig)
I’m taking the outside shot on Corey Vaughn getting his feet wet in 2013
Ballsy guess considering he hasnt gotten past A ball yet.
Sometimes a career can be jump started and take off. You never know. The guy is a monster physically.
NJ, I will take Cowgill. Definite break out candidate.
Now just need to see whether it is Dekker, Baxter or Spin that has a monster spring, and wins the other LH spot!
The hope is that Cowgill will be the 2013 version of the 2012 Angel Pagan if you can follow that.
not an unreasonable comparison. Maybe not the 2012, but 2010? Cow did show a good defensive profile, some SBs, and a bit of pop (and was considered very athletic) in the minors, so why can’t he become a similar player?
Cowgill’s minors stats scare me a little. It looks like 2011 was more of an outlier year than a glimpse.
A: .249 .346 .358 .705
A+: .272 .366 .434 .800
AA: .285 .360 .464 .825
AAA 1: .354 .430 .554 .984
AAA 2: .254 .312 .373 .685
So what do we see here? A natural progression of improvement from A-AA ball, then an incredible year in AAA then a disastrous 2012.
I would expect in another year in AAA you get a guy somewhere around an .850 OPS which most likely places you around replacement level or slightly above in the majors. The danger of course is that in those 2 seasons you are getting an average of .850 but two extremes to get there.
For sure intriguing and obviously low risk but I like Brown’s power better.
Duda,Brown, Kirk, Cowgill…no love for Den Dekker, huh? He’s my dark horse.
Not for nothing Jersey, but CF is his for the taking should he have a great Spring.
Defensively from all I have read I would agree Hitman that CF is MDD’s for the taking right now. Kirk it has been said in the past that he may end up moving over to a corner spot in the OF so I would not be surprised if that indeed ended up happening. While I admit a bias toward Kirk just think that overall offensively he may have more to offer so MDD will probably as you said need to outhit Kirk to break camp as the Mets CF.
For what it’s worth, Lucas Duda is on my team in MLB 12: The Show.
I am not very good with him. He’s batting .235 with 1 HR / 10 RBIs in 52 ABs.
On the flip side, Ike Davis is batting .420 with 9 HRs and 25 RBIs in about 65 ABs in that same season.
Baseball games help ease my pain when I watch the real Mets. At least there’s one place where the Mets always win… LOL.
Just between us sources tell me that the Lucas Duda in “MLB 13: The Show” will be much better.
Well, at least Duda is on a 100+ RBI pace, so he is being productive.
Of course, not as strong as Ike and his record 200+ RBI run. But at least the Mets are scoring a lot of runs!
He’s batting in a potent lineup. I acquired Justin Morneau, Franklin Gutierrez and Dustin Ackley to help the team. Ike’s playing RF. I’d be a terrible GM lol.
I agree. With the infield according to Anthony DiComo being very good if the OF of Kirk,Duda,Cowgill,Baxter & Brown can do their job, we have a great team.
We have a not God awful team. Even I’m not optimistic enough to call it “great”.
seems to be running like a Gazelle there. Good to see!
I would never use the word gazelle to describe Duda’s running. lol What about a three-toed sloth?
Yea not sure I would want Van as a partner in a game of pictionary after that.
that’s OK. Given my shocking lack of artistic talent, you would never have any clue what I was drawing anyway.
Maybe a pigeon toed gazelle…
Come on, doesn’t he look like he is flying there, with lots of extension?
OK, maybe it is just the pasty white thighs making it look like he is running fast…
Aww Come On Joe…. he is running as fast as any Gazelle you could find at the Museum of Natural History!
three legged dog
I would put my money on the dog.
I like Duda and wishing him a great 2013. Glad to see that the injury was not serious.
Why would someone who makes half a million dollars a year be moving furniture anyways???
I make $20,000 and I want no part of it.
I think Murphy will have a break out year hitting 18-20 HRs. He has been working on his stance & body position watching the big boppers on other teams videos ..I also think his legs are stonger now that he is futher aways from his injuries. Tejada will also be better this year with more doubles.
If Murph’s knees are strong, that will certainly help.
But, the danger always is what happens if they “sell out” for the HRs. Is adding 5-6 more HRs worth it if he ends up with 15 fewer doubles, lower BA, more ks, etc. but trying to yank the ball more instead of spraying doubles to all fields?
Now, ideally, he does what Duda did in AAA and 2011. Keep the use the whole field approach, but when you get a pullable FB, turn on it gets HRs that way. of course, Duda has more than enough strength to whack them out to LF too when he is using the whole field.
Yeah, if Murf gets away from spraying the ball around he loses his luster.
We dont need HIM to hit 20hrs and hit .240
.290 and 10 hrs is a better fit for him
I’d rather he keep that nice, level, line drive making,compact swing and give us 40+ extra base hits and around .300 average.
Murph will hit the Mets 10 Hrs this season. He is working on what it takes to hit with some power. He spent a lot of time reviewing video and, according to the interview, noticed what is wrong. He claims he is not changing his approach.
For Murph, I believe we will see .310 45 2B 10 HR 10 SB
ok.. I try not to comment, because I know I will get into pointless arguments with people who have no intention of actually listening to anything, anyone has to say. Some of the commenters do not understand that if you are going to “Lose a player to free agency, in a terrible season” it is better to trade them for top prospects..
I feel like I entered a twilight zone once I got down to the comments on this thread… I mean.. do I dare say I see OPTIMISM? in these comments? Finally.
Kirk could be a reasonable everyday player, give him an opportunity to re-adjust to ML pitching, the kid proved he struggles his first time at almost each level of the minors, and comes back to rock it. I have no doubt he can be a service-able every day outfielder. Has anyone actually looked at Andrew Brown and Collin Cowgill’s minor league stats, yes I understand, they are minor league stats, but if you dont see potential, you should not watch baseball.
Finally.
2013-
David Wright .304 28 hrs 117rbi
Ike Davis .281 40 hrs 112rbi
^^^^^ heard it hear first.
Andrew Brown is a typical 4A player. He is going to be 28, and his numbers are inflated by the hitter friendly PCL. Also, if you look a little deeper into his minor league stats, you’ll see he struck out 100 times in 100 games. Since he strikes out so much at the AAA level, I doubt he could make consistent at the major league level.
There’s a reason why he was picked up off the scrap heap. He’s simply not good.
I doubt he could make consistent contact at the major league level*
With your logic Travis d’Arnaud, struck out 59 times in 67 games…. pretty close to call it similar, also in the PCL.
Just saying… not everyone develops into the player they can be at an exact age.
Don’t players have to genuinely fail at the Major League level before they are considered 4A players? because 130 at-bats is not exactly a large sample size, and if we want to get real nitpicky, he hasnt had more than 360 at-bats since 2008 and had 510 this year between majors and minors. Kid deserves an oppurtunity, and I hope he gets one.
Amazing how people fret about strikeouts when it is Met players/prospects but make that same assertion about other teams and the response is how it is not significant.
It’s amazing how I keep getting held for responsible for comments that someone else might have made. What player on another team did I say their K’s weren’t significant? And what current Met’s player did I fret about their K’s?
I’m just wondering if there is any thing to back up your claim, or if it’s just a generalization with no truth behind it.
Oh and there is a huge difference between D’Arauand and Brown – D’Aruand is a terrific young talent, while Brown is a guy who has been let got by two teams two consecutive years. D’Araund is also younger and could work on his problem with K’s. I don’t think you can say that about Brown.
In 112 Major League at-bats, Andrew brown had 5 homers, 7 doubles, with only 11rbi and a .232 last season. Now let’s just say, given a full 500 at-bats, those splits come out to about 31 doubles, 24 homers, and 55rbi (you can easily give credit to probably close to 70rbi figuring law of averages, runners on, ect ect)
2 players stats below, both from their second stint in the majors. one is andrew brown.
Andrew Brown – 112 AB, 26h, 7 doubles, 5 homers, 11 rbi with a .232/.302/.429
Player – 142 AB, 33h, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, 19 rbi with a .232/.264/.408
I certainly am giving Andrew Brown an opportunity.
Check his splits from at Coors to the road.
The problem with using any of his MLB stats currently is sample size.
He had 70 PA at home and 78 on the road. He had 19 hits at home and 11 on the road. Difference in BA ..288 and .162. Any time 8 hits can lead to 120 point difference in BA, your sample size might be a little too small. Out of those 11 hits on the road, 4 were for extra bases. Out of the 19 hits at home 9 were for extra bases. There’s just not that much difference, other than the 8 hits.
If my sample size is too small, then so is his.
If you want to say that his major league stats prove nothing, then I can agree with that.
Agreed, the current MLB sample is too small to judge what kind of player he will be or is. I tend to look at his minor league stats instead. Those show great power potential.
The fact he has a small MLB sample is an indication in and of itself is it not?
Means he has barfely convinced the FO that has him that he is ready and that he is unproven!
And Unproven can just as easily go south as it could go north!
Exactly my point as well, how can you consider someone a 4A player if they haven’t been given their opportunity in the big leagues, if he fails miserably at the Major League level, okay, 4A player, but he hasnt been given that chance yet.
Those numbers show promise and potential to me, as I’m sure they did when they were for AROD 2nd call up.
A-Rod? You realize A-rod was 19 in his 2nd call up? Brown was 27 last year. A-rod was also the #1 prospect in all of baseball, while Brown has just been let go by two teams for nothing.
That’s not the greatest comparison in the world.
The reason why believe he is a 4A player is because he doesn’t have any skills that impresses me. He’s not good defensively. He actually has played more games at first base than in the OF. He’s not very fast, and doesn’t have prolific power.
Compare him to other prospects/young players we have like Den Dekker who offers outstanding defense in CF, or Valdespin who has a tremendous athletic ability. That’s why I consider him a non-prospect because he lacks any kind of impressive skill. That’s the reason why he hasn’t been given a chance yet.
The only thing he has got going for him is good AAA numbers, but they fail to impress me when put in the proper context. His age is average for the league, so he SHOULD tear the league up. And he played in a very hitter friendly stadium(Colorado Springs), and played in a extremely hitter friendly league.
IMO a great comparison to him is Josh Satin – Same age, good AAA numbers, not great defensively, and also lacks any kind of impressive skill.
You use the terms “Impressive Skill” yet you do not consider putting up good numbers impressive. Guess what? just because someone doesn’t look good doing something, does not mean they cannot beat you.
See, what you are doing is using certain parameters to judge Andrew Brown, yet you discount them when applied to others. This is the epitome of not judging talent properly, everyone develops at different stages man, discrediting someones success simply because he is a little bit older is comical. yet “once” players make it to the majors, it is irrelevant that they are 22 or 23 year olds playing against guys with way more experience and composure, we throw away so many people who dont produce instantly. How many stars have been bounced around before they were finally able to make it click.
You would of thrown Chase Headley away, thats for damn sure, he finally just had his breakout season at 28… shocking, I know.
I could see you know,
You – “Kid has one of the nicest swing in the game”
Random person -”He’s never hit higher than .170 in any league…”
You- “Do you SEE that swing, it’s impressive.”
No man, just no.
First of all, his “good numbers” are minor league numbers, and you always have to take minor league numbers with a grain of salt. Secondly, his good minor league numbers come from a extremely hitter friendly league, and he played half his games in one of the best hitter’s park in that league. Third, his age is about league average for that league, so a minor league player ripping up a league where he is the same age as the average player isn’t that impressive.
You can ask any scouts and they will tell you age is an important factor when judging talent. Baseball America always takes a player’s age relative to their league in into account:
“Another thing to pay attention to is a player’s age. A 19-year-old who’s putting up decent numbers in Triple-A is much more impressive than a 22-year-old who’s tearing up a Class A league.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/help/faq.html#ratings
Maybe you could tell BA that how they evaluate prospects is “comical” too.
“yet “once” players make it to the majors, it is irrelevant that they are 22 or 23 year olds playing against guys with way more experience and composure, we throw away so many people who dont produce instantly.”
If you have read my comments here on MMO, I always talk about how we should be patient with our young talent because they are young and inexperienced. Your talking to the wrong person here.
And for the record, I have never fretted about Kirk’s strikeouts, or MDD’s strikeouts, and I’m not fretting over Travis’ strikeouts.
So, your claim is completely false.
I look at each players specific talent and ability, and based off that, I will decided if I ‘fret’ over their K’s or not. It has nothing to do with what team they play for.
That guy is a a hater. He also likes to group people and often does. He worships the ground Sandy walks on and if someone doesn’t fell as he does, he resorts to insults and back-handed comments.
Sandy worshipper?
That is funny consider I dont worship anyone or anything. However, I do agree and see the validity of his philosophical approach to building a successful organization as opposed to following the same ineffective methodology that was followed since the signing of Vince Coleman. Alderson won a WS title as a GM, something that few on here want to acknowledge. Is Alderson a genius? I have never claimed he was. His brains were not what was needed in this situation anyway. What Alderson provided was the backbone to stand up to Fred and tell him to stop spending. Perhaps it is because he has Uncle Bud backing him up or that Fred was scared with the Madoff deal. Whatever the reason, it doesnt matter. The Mets are finally on the right path, something that should have been done 10 or 11 years ago after the 2000 team was broken up.
Instead, we get Omar and his adherence to Fred’s idea to spend and we got a few good years followed by total collapse….just like the other times in the past. It is a boom-bust cycle.
As for the backhanded slap, here is one between the eyes: the spend until you win philosophy is a proven loser for the Mets and the defense of that idea is one who is subscribing to losing. Alderson is following the blueprint that leads to winning and is proven repeatedly even in the age of FA. Texas, Yankees, Philly and SF all have won titles recently with this same idea.
“What Alderson provided was the backbone to stand up to Fred and tell him to stop spending. ”
Where was his backbone with the David Wright contract?
Isn’t it possible that Sandy wanted to re-sign Wright and worked out something with the Wilpons to use marketing money to off-set the contract?
Sure it’s also possible for Pigs to fly as Pink Floyd proved!
OK so possibilities and realities only work when they are in your favor? It was mentioned in October that the Mets were considering using marketing money to off-set Wright’s cost. Until I know otherwise, I will assume that Sandy also wanted Wright to be on the team because if he fails and the contract is awful it will be Sandy who is blamed for the contract.
Realities? The Reality is they wanted to trade one big chip for prospects and the media and fanbase wouldn’t stand for BOTH!
Add to that that he TRIED to trade Wright but couldn’t get a good return and the fact that trading both would have caused them to lose even more attendance revenue than just one….
The Wright signing is plain a simply a neccesary evil as far as Sandy is concerned….
He couldn’t trade both and Wilpon told him pay Wright when you know full well knowing Sandy’s past and history that if he was free to choose he would have signed the cheap Cy Young pitcher over the 20Mil per year All Star….
Keeping Dickey and trading Wright certainly makes a lot more sense if he is rebuilding the way some here suggest.
Dickey for three years at 10 Mil per…Wright getting the prospects instead…No player making over 10 Million going into 2014 and all that savings to spend on whatever it is you guys think we are going to spend it on next year to make 2014 worth watching.
Your thoughts on him trying to trade Wright are very unpopular among your contemporaries. I for one think they did float his name out there and most likely did not get the return to warrant trading him over keeping him. Obviously every team that rebuilds has to still consider finances and may throw them a bone. When you say “The Wright signing is plain a simply a neccesary evil as far as Sandy is concerned….” I agree and think that is why you can’t say that he didn’t want to re-sign Wright.
And who are my contemporaries TRS?
Find a post where I supported trading him?
Or said not to re-sign him….Feel free….
Point is more towards YOUR contemporaries who say we are not ready and need to rebuild and save money until such time as we are rebuilt and can spend money….
Do we have a long term replacement for Dickey? Nope not really we had to sign someone…
We had a long term replacement for Wright in Flores (down on the farm your contemporaries seem to think is the only thing worth building) didn’t we?
For the price of Wright for TWO years you could have gotten Dickey for three (Money is so important with your contemporaries you know)
And you could have gotten the kids you got out of the Dickey deal PLUS get more money to spend in 3 years when Dickey’s contract expired….
So really YOUR contemporaries are the ones who should have been screaming for Wright to be traded and Dickey retained….
It fits YOUR idea of what is a GOOD idea for a plan….
Not mine and certainly not any of my contemporaries!
And I’m assuming you think my contemporaries are all the guys who don’t like Wright forgetting totally that the REASON they don’t like Wright is because they LOVED REYES and BELTRAN and lost them despite both having better season than any Wright has had in the last 4 years….
But if we still had Reyes and or Beltran I GUARANTEE you that you wouldn’t hear a peep about Wright being here!
Task you have to stop drifting between alternate realities if you want to make your case….
Either the Wilpons WANT to spend and Sandy is stopping them or Sandy is being saddled by the Wilpon’s lack of money which is why we are forced to rebuild from within….
Both realities can’t be true!
And they seem to be flip flopped by Sandy’s supporters whenever it seems convenient.
It’s one or the other but it can’t be both….
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Good One – hotstuff
Hi there, toots!
NOT INPRESSED WITH ANY OF THE METS SO CALLED OUT FIELDERS. HEY METS FANS THE METS BRASS ARE JERKING US AROUND AND WE SIMPLY ALLOW THEM TO GET AWAY WITH IT. ALL THEY WANT IS OUR MONEY AND WE SIMPLY BUY INTO WHAT EVER THEY GIVE US.ALDERSON SAYS HE HAS A PLAN MOVING FORWARD.YEA RIGHT! THE ONLY PLAN HE HAS IS TO CUT CORNERS WHERE EVER POSSIBLE. (HIS JOKES COME AT NO EXTRA CHARGE) SO THAT THE WILPONS CAN MAKE MONEY OUT OF AN INFERIOR PRODUCT,DONT YOU GET IT? THEY DONT CARE ABOUT THE TEAM AS LONG AS THEY ARE TURNING A PROFIT AT OUR EXPENSE.THIS SAD TO SAY IS THE WILPONS AND SANDY ALDERSON PLAN MOVING FORWARD.
Might want to get that caps lock key checked. That seems to be stuck and your space bar isn’t working.
Donal _ We’ve seen this with Mets62 as well and please remember that it is very possible the caps lock is used by people with certain disabilities. I do not know if that is the case here – but it’s best to be tolerant of that possibility than ignorant of it
jessep, I know what you are saying, but I was familiar with that type of situation before I started posting here. That’s why I never got on 62′s case because I have seen it before.
This right here. Not a case of that.
I guess my point is… maybe, maybe not. This is still the internet and you wouldn’t know “Edwin” if he was standing next to you on line for a coffee…. and it’s better to not assume the worst, because it doesn’t cost you a thing to just brush off the caps lock – but it may cost Edwin something (or anybody) if he was using caps for a reason and gets called out for it ya know?
So I just saw that there are two OF still available that were big names in the past, can someone elaborate on their issues and whether or not they could fit on the Mets?
I dont know enough about them, or whether they are hurt etc…
Chone Figgins
Scott Posednik
I also saw the Yanks signed Juan Rivera, for some reason I thought he wasnt available until next year.
And what about Matt Capps for the BP?
Joe – Figgins got paid a boatload of $ and made Jason Bay look good. I don’t see anybody giving him more than a minors deal with invite to spring
Podsednik is honestly at least to me, the equivalent of what we have already. I mean if the Mets felt they needed to give somebody else a 4th OF chance, sure but I don’t know if signing him at his age with his injury history really does much for them?
Just food for thought our OF in 2000, Agbayani, Timo Perez, and Derek Bell. Not exactly Mantle and joltin joe.
Wasn’t Ricky Henderson the starting LF? Not that it defeats your point. Just sayin’.
I believe he was in the playoffs but he only played 31 games for the Mets in the regular season.
yeah that was 1999 when Rickey was the LF. The Mets released Rickey in May of 2000
You guys are comical…. We had arguably the best IF EVER and also MIKE PIAZZA…. These mets have ike davis, davis wright. can you stop this???? That team reached the WS with great defense, great bullpen, 2 almost aces starting pitchers and a good coach. this 2013 version got nothing to look forward to.
I believe you are using “good coach” loosely. Not like our current manager is a ball of fire. Yes we had a great IF that year. But besides 2B our IF is still probably at least one of the best in the NL both defensively and offensively.
That being said my opinion 2 weeks ago I did not think this Mets team would win more than 58 games now I am slightly more optimistic thinking somewhere in the 72-74 range. And who knows maybe we get lucky and Familia, Meija and Gee all show up and have great springs and maybe we can trade for a true Major league OF’er.
Its good to see you turning around.
By the way, do you realize how bad a team has to be to lose 104 games. There is no way this team loses that many. This is a .500 team all the way. Look at every position and compare to last year.
C..Buck is an upgrade over Thole
1B…Ike can improve on last year
2B…Murphy will have a better year
SS…Tejada, if healthy full year, will improve
3B…Wright…consistent overall numbers
LF….Duda…will improve on last year
CF/RF…The eventual winners should be able to top Torres etal from last year
BP…better if only because it can be worse…all inexpensive arms makes it easy to replace non-performers…the big variable is Francisco since he isnt going anywhere.
SP…losing Dickey hurt but the production, overall, can easily be surpassed. Gee and Johan won a total of 12 or 13 games last year. They can hit that by Mid June. Harvey is expected to take the next step. Niese looks like he turned the corner. The 5th spot is a question mark based upon health but he is capable of winning 13-15 games.
This is a better team over last year. There is not one position where the team is worse and last year there was nobody with a career year who can fall or drastically.
OK lets hit right in the middle. I am guessing a range of 70-80 wins. It’s too hard to narrow it down to an exact amount. I don’t see them .500 but I don’t see them below 70 either.
The reason I say .500 is AZ was a .500 team last year and I believe this is a better team. SP should be a lot better than AZ staff. The BP will lag which is a problem but the Mets lineup will produce in proportion to AZ. Sure their numbers look better but the ballparks needs to be accounted for. HRs will be less yet the Mets have a bunch of guys who can rack up some doubles: Ike, Wright, Duda, Murphy, and, even Tejada.
Overall, this is a realistic outcome in my opinion. The BP needs to find a couple more shut down arms and then we all hope and pray Fransisco is healthy, slimmed down, and pitches well.
Excuse me. The Mets were 74 – 88 last year. Dickey was 20 – 6. Meaning without his decisions they were 54 – 82. .500 team. Ar you kidding. Every statement you make has at huge if in it. Ok to be a fan but let’s be realistic. The rotation is not better without RA Dickey. John Buck sucks. The outfield I equally bad if not worse than last year. We have David Wright who no one will confuse with Mike Schmidt and Ike Davis who hit .227 last year.
The rest range from huge question marks to just outright stinking. Look forward to 2015 and beyond
Of course it has a huge if in it. If things were certain, the Mets would be slated to win the division and in contention of the WS. But then again, every team has a ton of ifs in it. Look at the Yankees. If a 38 year old SS can come back healthy. If a 40 year old pitcher can stay healthy. If CC doesnt have more arm trouble. If Tex stopped his downward slide. If Mariano comes back from ACL. So dont give me that teams have no ifs. Everyone does.
As for the Mets starting staff, yes Dickey loss hurts. But, to start, you arent going to have to replace 20 wins because the odds are Dickey wasnt going to win 20 again. How many 20 game winners actually repeat. Typically there is some type of letdown. Dickey might have been slated to win 15-17. How can the Mets replace that? My assertion is that Gee and Johan can make that up themselves. Niese can certainly duplicate 2012 if not exceed it. Harvey is going to be better than the Hefner, Young, Swinden, etal conglomerate that was run out there last year especially in the 2nd half. #5 is a question but then it usually is. Marcum has the potential to provide some strong starts and win regularly, if healthy.
And the reason a lot of this stands to play out is because nowhere am I suggesting anyone have a career year or provide MVP/CY numbers.
Dont forget, if Swisher would have caught that simple fly ball, Jeter never would have gotten injured and the Spankees might have advanced.
If things were certain they would be in the Playoffs?
Does that mean if things were Certain Houston would be too?
You mean if things were the way Many WANT them to be not what they actually are I thnk….
Here’s the thing, as great as Dickey was last year, he got the best run support on the team. Also, the bullpen only blew one of his starts.
So, a pitcher wouldn’t need to put in a performance like Dickey did last year to get 17 wins on this club. Plus, you figure Harvey, Gee and Niese are all going to improve somewhat.
We won’t get 20 wins from any 1 guy (not that it matters) but the aggregate of the other 4 spots improving should make up the difference. And that is before you figure in Davis hopefully getting off to a better start and Buck being marginally better than Thole until d’Arnaud comes along.
“the bullpen only blew one of his starts”
Thats because Dickey went deep enough to keep the majority of them sitting in the Pen!
“you figure Harvey, Gee and Niese are all going to improve somewhat….but the aggregate of the other 4 spots improving should make up the difference”
Thats a GIVEN is it?
You best hope at improvement is Santana….Harvey would have a hard time topping what he did since his only two BAD games were the ones where the FO and Terry decided and forced him to throw more Changeups because of something a spreadsheet told them.
I see Harvey and Gee as big difference makers. Having both of them for a full season means a lot better production than the combined mess of Gee for half season, Harvey for 10 starts, Familia, Young, Mejia, Hefner, McCugh and whomever else was run out there. If both Harvey and Gee give the Mets 30 starts, they should be able to post 25-30 wins between the two of them fairly easily. I dont know how that compares to those two spots in the rotation last season but I am willing to bet it is a lot better.
Gee is coming off Surgery and a long layoff….He is not going to be the same guy right off the bat and if his stamina suffers even the slightest hit he is going to get pulled early in games exposing that Bullpen which is largely a pen by default since we lost a few guys (not anyone good mind you) and intend to replace them with kids and another fan favorite who hasn’t played one season in two years.
Harvey, Could go either way with him…Most Sophie Pitchers run into trouble as the league has seen him now, Has better scouting reports and will find his weakness and how that turns out will be determined by his ability to adjust to what they do to him.
Santana and Marcum are also Injury risks. Could go down at ANY time and who knows might not even make it out of ST for all we know….
And whats the plan then? Hefner and Schwinden again?
It won’t be Wheeler unless the injury happens at a clock friendly time of the season.
We BARELY have a starting lineup….
We have a SS who has yet to play a full season…
Our Catcher is Buck who is actually worse than Thole only at 12 times the price…Sure he may catch better than Thole but thats certainly not going to add to the Win column or delete from the lose column. You can cite d’Arnaud but no guarantee he even comes up before August.
Finally that OF consists of only two RH batters, Both signed to MiL Contracts. If they don’t BOTH make the team we will be lefty hefty again and lose to just about every lefthander we face…
You can think positive all you want but this team is a thread that is so thin and minor stress will break it!
I dont disagree that as it stands now, the Mets are a thin team. There are many things that could go wrong and derail this season. Depth has been and continues to be the Mets problem.
But there is reason for optimism. You mention catcher so lets look at that. Forget TDA because he is on the farm for a while. Lets look at Buck. Met catchers hit a combined .226 5 HR 48 RBI. Fortunately not a high bar to exceed that greatly. Buck, even have a poor year last year where he posted a Baylike BA, still hit 12 HRs and drove in 41, almost the same amount as all Met catchers. Is it possible that Buck is trending downward and goes after .150 this year? Certainly. It is also possible he turns back towards his career averages.
And that is the point, the Mets have a lot of those same type situations. There are some, if they put up decent numbers the team, that will change the landscape of the Mets. Ike hitting .250 changes things. Duda popping 25 HRs. Kirk/Den Dekker getting their Ks somewhat under control and hitting .250-.270 with some pop. One of the other 4 OF contenders showing some major league aptitude. Their improvement is going to come form a variety of guys.
Yes look at Buck….He hit .192!!!!!!
And HE is your STARTER!
It goes down from there!
Mets starters won 58 games last year. The is is an average of 11.6.
If Harvey and Niese can be awarded 15 each, that is more than half way. A healthy Gee should be good for 12. You don’t think Johan, Marcum, Wheeler and probably Hefner and McHugh couldn’t pick up 16 combined?
Again, you figure Ike and Murphy will be a little better and the outfield and bullpen couldn’t be any worse.
Dickey also had the best era and pitched by far the most innings. Three of our I’ve guys know the DL very well. The other two have never reached 200 innings. That means lost of bullpen and fill in starters. Dickey broke several loing streaks last year. You can’t gloss over his loss with a straight face. Especially if you think Johan and Gee will be making up the difference
When you remove your best pitcher who is ne of baseballs best from your rotation you get worse
Without Dickey there eating up the innings he did this Bullpen is going to be under some SERIOUS stress….
Every Bullpen is stressed early in the season because Pitchers rarely go past 6 innings, but Marcum and Santana will already stress it out two days out of 5, Gee may add to that…
So unless Niese (who has always had stamina issues and light on the IP) and Harvey start going 7 and 8 innings a lot this Pen is going to be more overtaxed when it was when Batista and Hefner were being sent in…
The 2000 IF was great, especially Piazza. Their starting pitching was very good (not great but very good). And the bullpen was good (not great). But anyone who doesn’t acknowledge that was one of the weakest OFs in Mets history has blinders on and no objectivity.
I am not completely down on the Mets OF. I think with the numbers game they are playing, there is a chance for some decent numbers. To start, I believe they will top the OF last year simply because it was so horrid. Getting rid of Bay and Torres did add through subtraction. .160 and .230 are not difficult numbers to top.
Duda should bang out 25-30 HRs this year with regular playing time. Hopefully Hudgins actually helps him this season as opposed to hurting him at the plate. Cowgill is one who intrigues me and I think he might surprise with a bit of pop and speed. Brown is an unknown to me so I cant really comment on him. And I feel comfortable with Kirk or Den Dekker believing whoever wins the job will perform decently. Yes strikeouts will remain a problem for either of them but hopefully they reduce it somewhat.
Will any of them be AS? No. The level of play will not rival the best OF in the majors. But out of the bunch, I think there are at least 2 everyday ballplayers with a couple of others being suited to platoon.
And for a your heard it here first, do not be surprised if you see both Den Dekker and Kirk win jobs out of ST with Kirk sliding over to RF (at least against righties).
Honestly I think we will be surprised by one of either Cowgill or Brown and the other will stink badly and be released. I will let you know which one after ST, LOL.
I think your assessment might be correct. And if it happens that way, wonderful. Hitting .500 on moves like that is a grandslam. And it is why I like the numbers game; bring many in and let them fight for it. Same with the BP. Throw 10 arms out there trying to win 4 spots. If one wins the job and fails, send him packing and bring someone else in.
From what I am reading by those on here, the odds are Cowgill makes it and Brown flops. But I guess that is why they actually hold ST games to see what they can do on the field as opposed to our opinions of it.
Actually looking at it, Brown has great power and has hit at every level in the minors. Even in the bigs, his splits vs LH are extreme. No I don’t see him being a full-time guy but there’s no doubt the guy has power having hit 20+ HR the last 3 years in the minors. What I am curious about is he another Duda in the OF? He has played a significant amount of 1B and 3B in the minors as well. Looking at that, he may have a decent shot to beat out Turner for the RH utility role pending what direction they go.
Could be interesting if it ends up that they keep Brown over Turner, meaning that one of Spin or Baxter or Dekker also makes the OF rotation.
though turner at least in theory can play MI in a pinch still. Certainly 2B. And without that, you will have only 1 guy to cover both SS and 2B. If that matters to you!
Turner most likely is on the team for one reason: he has proven himself to be able to hit in the clutch off the bench. The PH role is difficult and Turner showed the ability to do it. I think he is on the 25 man out of ST except for injury.
I guess that could be V-spin/Hicks as the other utility guy.
lets say that it’s a RH on the mound.
Recker, Brown, Cowgill, VSpin/Hicks and Baxter?
Wow. The optimism on this thread is disorienting.
Need more coffee.
Put some Irish Creme in it.
Pavlov’s Puppy speaks! I am intrigued by both Cowgill and Brown but I must admit the entire outfield situation scares me. That being said, I’m ok with starting the season with the current mix, if we are competitive then maybe we make an in season move (those are still allowed, right?).
I am not sure if those during season moves are there or not…. when was the last time we did? 2008? LOL.
Or perhaps some of the guys actually perform where a major move isnt needed.
You never know when a couple of guys will break out.
Well Johan will be on the move at mid-season and something has got to come back. If you were looking to upgrade a position on this team what would you be looking for?
I think he was referring to OFers Boomer.
If/When Johan is moved, I would not be surprised to see that be for prospects. I would really be surprised if it was for a major league player considering the team he will be sent to is in contention.
So am I. We traded Dickey for a catcher, a pitcher and an outfielder, why wouldn’t we target a OFer for Johan?
Yes, I agree it will be for a major league player and assuming Johan stays healthy there could be an interesting bidding war among some contending teams.
I think that is highly possible although Alderson will most likely take the best deal. If another pitcher like Wheeler is offered, as an example, I dont think Alderson backs away because the organization appears to have a great deal of pitching.
But at this point, I think he realizes he needs to upgrade the everyday prospects. So you are most likely correct in that Johan will net a young position player.
Task
I’m with you on the optimism. The outfield scares me (as I said earlier) but I’m ok with starting the season with them. I’m bullish on the bullpen. I like the approach of letting some of these hard throwing prospects prove them self in the pen first.
Personally, I like the flexibility of it all. We saw this last season with Philly who had BP problems during the first part of the season. Just before they made their run, they moved a few guys out and replaced them with new guys in front of Papelbon.
Finding diamonds might be tough but throw enough guys out there and see if you can at least uncover some rubies.
I am actually ok, assuming they don’t bring anyone else in… going with a 5 man rotation with Duda only getting the occasional day off in the OF.
I wonder if the Nats will be looking for some pitching help?
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/1/29/3928032/alex-rodriguez-gio-gonzalez-miami-doping-PED-clinic
The thing about only worrying about the issues with your own team is you forget that other teams have issues as well.
Not to be a total negative ninny here, but you folks trying to compare 2000′s outfield to the current one to say don’t worry, or others who feel it might not be so bad, are all out of your friggen minds. This outfield will go down in the worst that the Mets have fielded probably since their inception. This outfield is nothing but garbage.
The team downgraded the outfield, yes they replaced Thole but Buck is not good and d’A will need time to develop, the bullpen somehow was probably downgraded, and the rotation was downgraded. What does that get you?!? A 74 win team last year that just got kicked in the nuts and will try their hardest to not lose 100 this year. BANK ON IT!
You aren’t old enough to remember seeing the pepe manguel/Bruce Boisclair teams in person are you.
I am glad you have such a clear crystal ball. Please tell me where Apple stock will be in a year so I can make some money.
So you made the assertion, explain how you arrived at that. The rotation was downgraded…is that so? You realize the 2nd half of the year saw a staff of Dickey, Niese, Harvey, Hefner, Young, Familiar, Mejia, and who knows who else. Do you really think they are better than Johan, Niese, Harvey, Gee, and Marcum? How is the BP downgraded when you dont even know who the arms are going to be yet? And the OF? State your case how they are worse than last year? Who did they lose that is going to hurt them? Torres and his .233 BA? Bay and his .160 BA? Hairston and his 20 Hrs? I agree on the last one but again that can be made up by 3 or 4 other guys.
But I will leave it to you, delve into the numbers and tell me how this team is so much worse than last year.
It will be somewhere in the 350-410 range by this time next year.
And you realize that Colorado lost 98 games last year with a starting staff that wasnt allowed to throw more than 75 pitches in a game. Do you really think the Mets starting 5 is anywhere near as bad as that? Couple that with the two best players on their team, Cargo and Fowler missed some time with Helton out much of the season.
Lets be honest, this Met team is not a 100 loss team. To loss that much, you have to be really bad.
Taskgee, i will say this, i do admire your optimism, however, you’re on an insland by yourself if you believe this team will be a 500 team. We play in the toughest divisions, many teams in the west division are better than us, just on paper i can give you the astros, marlins and padres beng worst than us, i don’t see how we can get to 70 wins let alone 81, this is obviously a punt year (transition) again for us, only this team we will give d’arnaud and wheeler the opportunity to come up and show us what they got, to see if harvey can continue to improve, niese to be the kind of pitcher we expect him to be, Ike to take the reign of the team and to see if wright can not fold under the pressure of that big contract when things go south, other than that, this team does not have a lot to look forward to.
Yes maybe I am but it is simple statistical analysis. Look at the records and see how the Mets performed.
To start, Houston is in the AL so we will exclude them. But you look at the worst teams last year, Hou, Col, Mia, and ChC and you will see, other than Miami, the Mets had a losing record against all of them. As for the division, you are correct, it is one of the toughest in baseball. Yet, look at the Mets record against their division and you will see the only ones they beat up on was Miami. So break it down. The dominance of Miami should continue unless the Mets play down to their level. The Mets were a combined 10-26 against Washington and Atlanta, the two best teams in the division according to most. That is a .277 WP. Lets be honest…it is hard to have that bad a record over any large sampling of games (more than 1/5 the season). As for Philly, the Mets basically were .500 with them and many are questioning whether they improved or not.
On an individual basis, the Mets do not need MVP years from anyone to be .500. And that is why I think it entirely within their grasp. I broke down the positions earlier and everything written was not excessive production out of any one person above what he did or is capable of. Is 25-30 HRs from Duda far out? Ike duplicating his production while hitting .250? Wright, I agree will be a question with the pressure, but absent that he is a consistent .300/20/100 guy. And I feel that out of the 5 or 6 other potential OFers, there will be at least 2 who can produce some decent numbers while catching the ball. I dont know who they will be and wouldnt be surprised to see both Kirk and Den Dekker exit as the winners but who knows. The SP, overall, is better if healthy which they were not last season. The BP is still a ???? but again with a low bar and some good arms, there is lots of room for improvement. If they even hit mid pack, that is light years ahead of the last few BPs.
That is why I am in the .500 camp. Still no postseason baseball with that record but an improvement over the last few years.
The Mets have to play 38 games against the Nationals and Braves, add in the AL schedule plenty of games against the likes of the Cards and Dodges and Giants and this is a very tough road.
You have a starting outfield Of Duda with a wrist injury, ask any batter what happens to their power after that. Kirk is fine defensively but he was so over-matched last year, he will need to make some significant adjustments to improve and then Baxter and any other piece of crap that they signed. This is the black hole of all outfields now matter how optimistic you are. Add in one injury which will happen and they are in serious dudu.
The rotation has issue and is worse then last year. We cannot rely in Santana all year, Gee just had major surgery, Marcum had elbow issues last year and then you got kids. You took away a cy young innings eater, this rotation barring any injuries are going to put a lot pf pressure on the pen, add a injury, which will happen, and you should be able to see the domino effect. As for the pen you got a bunch of rookies and FFF and Pedro who hasn’t pitched in 2 years.
When you have a young lineup where half is going to be over-matched (outfield plus catcher), a rotation that lost a Cy Young winner and a hodge-podge bullpen that consists of young raw pitchers that aren’t good enough to put in the rotation, this team is going to struggle big time. Look at last years second half and that is my crystal ball.
Perhaps you are correct. But take a look at this.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/good_as_new_cj7WqBccbZbXBOAJT04SoN?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Mets
Seems Ike is a bit more optimistic about not only himself but the team. Is he being politically correct? Who knows. But he feels healthy and has set a bar for himself to perform at.
“Davis is determined to raise his batting average and break the 100 RBI mark.
“Finally,’’ Davis told The Post with a shout. “I’m healthy.’’”
Also about the team:
” “Young players could come in and be an All-Star right off the bat and have amazing seasons like (Mike) Trout,’’ Davis said. “We’re going to miss R.A. (Dickey), you’re always going to miss a guy who wins the Cy Young, but I’m excited. I’m excited to play with these guys. I think we have a lot of energy and it’s going to be cool. We’re going to be fine.
“Lucas Duda just needs to get hot, he’s going to be a monster, we’re going to have a good core,’’ Davis said. “You never know, we could do what we did in the first half last year.’’
As for Harvey, Davis added: “He’s the kind of guy you want on the mound. He’s just angry and has that great starter’s mentality. He’s a bulldog.”
Ike never seemed to be one to be a kiss ass so I dont believe he would say things like this unless he believes it. When you think company man, on the Mets, Ike is not the first guy you think of.
Just because I am negative about the whole I am optimistic about some of the parts. I think Ike will be much closer to his second half numbers than first, but he second half numbers weren’t able to carry a weak team that was around him. Harvey has all the makings of being a stud, no doubt in my mind. As for the rest, just a bunch of PR crap. Also just to add more gas, what happens if Tejada gets hurt again, or Murphy. This is what people really need to focus on. It’s not just the lack of talent of the starters there is literally no depth to this team except for the starting rotation. Injuries happen to all teams and I’ve seen enough of guys like Den Decker and Statin to know they are not stepping up and carrying anything. If you thought the depth issues were bad in 2009, 13 can easily top that unless Sandy gets five more scrap heap guys.
You’re going to get yourself a bad reputation. My opinion is no different than yours, but where some of these shill are concerned it’s like the Bush doctrine: Either you are 100% with me or you are a terrorist.
I think the way you choose to express yourselves has something to do with how you are received differently.
Task..If they had come out and said “Well we will suck this year but just wait till 2014 and 2015″ what would you response be?
Saying that things are going to be great is what is expected…They wouldn’t be here long if they said otherwise…Just ask Dickey about how that worked out for him.
Actually Metsie, I dont see Ike as a kiss ass guy. If he didnt believe what he was saying, I think he would have kept the convo about him and his health. No need to mention guys like Duda.
And sure, I believe ballplayers are naturally optimistic about their abilities and, in turn, the teams. So Ike might be seeing a lot that isnt there. Or he might have an idea what is. Either way, time will tell. But the one thing I have a tough time believing is that Ike is a shill for the Mets and just adhering to the PR campaign. If it was Wright, I would believe that assertion. Ike? Doesnt strike me as a company man in that regard.
And I do expect Ike to have a healthy and hugely productive year this year.
Do you see him as an Outspoken type instead?
What would you expect him to say?
Nah we are gonna suck?
Especially after they trashed him last year?
He is not going to give them any ammo to work with.
They don’t want to hear it Salty….
They KNOW, they just refuse to say it.
They see that train coming down the tracks to hit them and they are just going to close thier eyes and pretend superman really exists and will come to stop them from getting hit.
Happens in Comic books and movies all the time, Why can’t it happen in real life?
The truth however is the team at full strength is capable of losing 100 games (not that they will just that they could), But we haven’t even dealt with our first Injury since ST hasn’t started yet!
A loss of anyone from the IF or the Rotation for any extended period of time and tis team is not only on those train tracks they will be tied to them!
If any one of these players go down:
Davis
Murphy
Wright
Niese
Harvey
Gee
(and I would even add Duda, and Kirk to that)
This team is in serious trouble because there isn’t any depth behind it.
They are even toying with the idea that Turner (who has never played it) will play some OF and what’s scary about that is when he does go out there he STILL won’t likely be the worst fielding OF we have!
LOL looks like we had the same depth thought at the same time. That really is the scariest part of this team. Injuries cannot be avoided and need to be planned for and that hasn’t been done.
When look and the list of Stayed and Went…
People don’t realize that more went than came and one of the went was a Cy Young pitcher who may not have added anyone to the MLB roster until July or August the earliest.
We got Marcum to fill his spot (No Performance gap from Dickey there LOL) and all the other guys we signed are all Minor leaguers at this point (not for long from the looks of it)
We lost our Loogy and gained a Pedro who is no longer perpetual…
Gee coming off a big layoff (he is not going to be the same guy right off the bat)
Santana still will have to be babied and heavily rely on the pen that has been virtually untouched except for players that left….
We lost two Pen arms (granted we didn’t lose much) bu have yet to replace them…
The folks who insist everything is fine are simply not looking past the initial lineup card and starting 9.
Choo Chooooooo SLAM!
Metsie,
You can make the same argument about most teams. What if the Yankees lose CC? Or Cano? The Nats Strasburg (especially if Gio is on the sideline)? Zimmerman? Hudson with the Braves? Or Kimbrel? Do you think these teams have replacements for them. Look at what happened to the Phils when Utley, Howard, and Halliday all went down. Yes injuries are a part of the game and will occur. Some teams far better okay while others have their seasons destroyed.
And yes I agree the Mets dont have much depth. If one of the Mets main players goes down (Ike, Wright, Niese, or Harvey) they are screwed. The sad thing is we saw this happen in the past few years. Health is a big part of the Mets picture entering into the season even more so than usual. Yet Wright, throughout his career has played 150+ games per year. Ike, unhealthy the last two seasons might finally play a season at full strength. Murphy is better around second so he has a chance not to suffer knee injuries. Niese finished his first season in the last 3. And Gee’s injury is not suppose to result in any lingering effect from what I read. Of course, Francisco, Santana, Marcum, Kirk, and Tejada are question marks with their health and ability to go a full season. But at some point the odds turn in a teams favor.
Look over the last 15 years…10-15 win turnarounds happen all the time.
Well task the Yanks did lose CC for awhile and Rivera and A-Rod and still made the playoffs!
Nats didn’t have to but still lost Straussburg for the end of the season, still made the playoffs!
And if the Yanks and Nats hadn’t lost who they did (Yanks also lost Jeter IN the playoffs) they both might have played each other in the World Series.
What was the key to overcoming those injuries?
The guys they lost and the rest of the team they had were SOOOO damn good that they had won enough games by the time they lost thier players that hardly anyone could catch up!
Took Baltimore an incredible run to even get close to the Injury hit Yankees.
The pigeon toed gazelle swings the bat again today.
https://twitter.com/Mets/status/296309886436913152
why does duda look like big pelf in his recent pictures? he hasn’t been seen licking his hand has he?
Duda has a long way to go before earning Pelfrey’s paycheck. All the hand licking in the world isnt going to get him $4M a year.
I would bat Duda 4th, in front of Wright. This way Duda may see more strikes …. With no one with power behind Duda, he might just get pitched around. Getting him top chase pitches. My though is also that Wright has a better eye at the plate …
Does anyone else think Duda hurt his hand moving furniture like Jeff Kent hurt his washing a car?