22
2013
Do I Really Look Like A Guy With A Plan?
An article by André Dobiey
“The Plan” – or trying to see the future forest amidst a bunch of presently broken trees.
We may agree or disagree on whether the current rebuilding of the Mets was inevitable or necessary or strictly financially motivated or even a vicious attempt to alienate the fan base. We may agree or disagree on whether the current front office has done well in their dual task of a) saving the ownership group from losing the franchise – whether we like it or not – and b) laying the groundwork of a longterm winner both talent wise and by creating a lot of payroll flexibility again.
However, what seems clear is that the future of this franchise over the next several years largely depends on the quality of pitching it will produce from within or acquire via trade & free agency. That seems to be the plan. And we´re not only talking about Matt Harvey or Zach Wheeler, but also about having enough depth and a strong bullpen to go with hopefully strong frontline SP.
Since teams like Washington & San Francisco have been mentioned as potential “role models” in all of this, I took a brief look at how those two teams did over the past 4 seasons in terms of scoring runs & allowing runs and what the actual difference between them and the Mets has been over that span. Also, let´s take a step back and look at the financial implications as well.
What´s pretty interesting is that all 3 teams have scored a very similar amount of runs over that 4-year span:
Washington: 2.718, i.e. an average of 679.5 Runs per season
San Francisco: 2.638, i.e. an average of 659.5 Runs per season
New York Mets: 2.691, i.e. an average of 672.75 Runs per season
None of these numbers is very high. However, all three teams play at least half of their games in at least slightly pitcher-friendly environments.
You guessed it – the main difference between the three teams has been the pitching:
San Francisco over the past 4 seasons has averaged 90 wins per season by allowing merely 2.418 Runs overall and thus 604.5 Runs per season on average.
The Nationals – after being terrible in 2009 and 2010, allowing 1.615 Runs in those two season and thus a whopping average of 807.5 per year – have merely allowed 1.237 Runs in 2011 and 2012 for an average of 618.5 Runs per season – or almost 200 less than before. Correspondingly, after averaging 63.5 Wins per season in 2009 & 2010, the Nats have now averaged 89.5 Wins per season in 2011 and 2012, while actually scoring a few runs less in those two years combined than in 2010 and 2009.
Finally, the Mets have given up by far the most runs among these teams over the past 4 years, a whopping 2.860 total and thus an average of 715 Runs per season. While the offense has been on par with the Nats & Giants, giving up 100 or so Runs more per year has been the back-breaker for recent Mets teams and thus has led to an underwhelming average total of 75.5 Wins per season during that span.
So, yes, using the Nats & Giants as role models may not be a bad idea. Building a strong & deep pitching staff over the next couple of years along with depth in the minors to be able to sustain it via trade or further promotions from within seems to be the formula to proceed with. And it has nothing to do with “Moneyball” but a lot more with common sense. And if it works, the Mets will be in a great position to sustain it financially over the long haul since revenue should rise significantly with a winning product on the field. Average 90 wins per season and I´m pretty sure Citi Field will be a crowded place again.
Oh, I almost forgot looking at finances which seem to be such a prevalent issue here these days:
The San Francisco Giants – who have won 2 World Series over the past 4 years while barely missing the playoffs in the other two – have spent an average of $107.442 million per season on their last 4 teams. Starting with an $82.566 million payroll in 2009 and recently culminating with $131.980 million spent on the 2012 World Champions.
The Nats – over their past two competitive seasons – have averaged payrolls of merely $82.681 million after being below $70 million in each of their dreadful 2009 and 2010 seasons. Even in the 98-win season of 2012, however, they spent merely $94.568 million in total salary on players.
The Mets – who have failed to even crack .500 in any of those past 4 seasons – had to spend a whopping total of $517.953 million over that span for an average of 129.488 million per year, starting with $153.550 million in 2009 to a mere $94.508 million in 2012 – or about the cost of one Rule V pick less than the Nats spent on their 98-win team.
And while you can witness a gradual rise in payroll for the Giants & Nats as their initially young team has started to age and become more expensive, the Mets have actually managed to remain a mediocre 75-win caliber team while cutting costs by almost $60 million per year total from their record in 2009 all the way to 2012. As of today, that total for 2013 figures to remain in the $95 to $100 million range, though the actual payout will be much lower due to deferred payments to Santana, Wright and Bay and probably in the $75 to $80 million or so range once the roster is completed. Looking at 2014, for now, we´re looking at a projected payroll in the $60 million range for the Mets – and thus plenty of room to get it into a range that is deemed necessary to start a competitive run again. Be it 85 or 95 or 105 million dollars.
Still, leaving out any individual decisions on players over the past couple of years or how good you believe the talent evaluation skills of the current front office are or aren’t, the general “Plan” sounds like a very sound strategy if you look at how the Nats & Giants have been successful with it, doesn’t it ?
About the Author: André Dobiey
I'm a lawyer who hails from and lives in Germany, and have been an avid Mets fan since 1984. I enjoyed rooting for Doc Gooden & David Cone back then. Spent a long time in German Baseball as a board member for the Bonn Capitals (German 1st League team) from 1994 through 2006 and can claim that I've watched Mets farm hand C Kai Gronauer and pretty much every other German born prospect (like Max Kepler or Donald Lutz) in live action far before they became prospects. I follow and watch the Mets and other MLB games via internet TV. Also a big soccer fan (like most Germans).
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‘However, what seems clear is that the future of this franchise over the next several years largely depends on the quality of pitching it will produce from within or acquire via trade & free agency.’
Hard to disagree with this. Pitching seems to be our only strength at the moment.
Well, while pitching is our strenght, you gotta admit is not as if it’s top notch yet, so that alone should tell you how bad this team has been constructed by your american idol sandy alderson..
Bypassing your childish name calling….
You interpreted my comment to mean the big club only? If so, wrong again. I was referring to the projected strong pitching up and down on the farm – some of which was drafted/signed by the last FO.
Is pitching a strength, or just because we as Mets fans, say it’s a strength? Are we only saying it’s a strength because everything else looks so bad? Does everything look so bad because all the ‘talent” is so far away?
Pitching is a strength because that’s where we can have hope, and because the farm has some could-be “hitting” talents that are far away. I like our young pitching, but so does Atlanta and so do the Nationals. For this plan to work, our pitching has to be elite. So far, it’s hard to see it pushing past the Nats and Braves.
The Mets led three leagues in a number of pitching categories last season. I dont think it is Met fans saying it is a strength but a reflection of the actual results albeit at the lower levels presently.
Thems the facts jack!
I cant decide which post I like better this morning; this one or “Who is Landon Powell” on Metsblog. Okay, you win. Nice job!
Yes, Joe did a great job on that Powell piece.
Is’nt a B_cth?
We are in despair
Whose on the 7th inning mound,
Send in the clowns.
Isn’t it B_cth?
Don’t you disapprove?
One who keeps jerking us around,
One who can’t make a move.
Where are the clowns?
Oh here are the clowns.
Don’t quit your day job!
So while we focus on producing quality pitching, is it now the premise that the Braves, Nats, Phillies and Marlins will give orders to their scouting and development department to stop producing quality pitching?
Are the Mets exclusively building around pitching while the other teams in the division say “what the heck, let the Mets have their day”?
Why is it the consensus view of the mainstream Alderson supporters, that the Mets are doing something that other teams aren’t doing as well?
Did all other 29 teams just wake up one day and decide they don’t need quality pitching to win? I must have missed that news item.
The only thing the Mets are doing that all other 29 teams are not, is signing major league ballplayers to play a major league game. Truth.
That should read – The only thing the Mets are doing that all other 29 teams are not, is “NOT” signing major league ballplayers to play a major league game.
not just the pitching. The defense also comes into play. You can keep the same pitching staff, and if you can upgrade the subpar defensive players it will look like the pitching got a lot better!
of course, quite likely that has a negative impact on the RS, which is why most defensively challenged guys are playing in the first place.
It is really that simple. You can never have enough good pitching. And you cannot win without some elite starters to go aong with that abundance.
Right now, the Mets have more high upside pitching in the minors than any other NL East division rival,arguably more than any other team in Baseball. Check out Joe D´ s post re: the projected 2013 minor league rotations. Of course, the Nats certainly have the better & deeper major league staff – which unfortunately also is pretty young. The Braves at least have their great bullpen and a solid & deep rotation, though seemingly a bit brittle and not as sustainable as the Mets. The Phillies still have their expensive trio of veteran aces and a nice & expensive front-end of their bullpen. Their depth has been destroyed though and a massive rebuilding seems inevitable.
The Marlins may have Giancarlo Stanton and similar prospect talent in the pipeline – but a much lesser major league roster than the Mets and probably less financial flexibility than the Mets longterm too, so I wouldn´t worry about them.
Of course, that still doesn´t answer the question of how the Mets will improve their defense or who will be in the outfield a year or two from now. And even with lots of promising options in the upper & lower minors, it´s a big step from pitching prospect to legitimate major league pitcher. And one key piece of the puzzle also is a strong front of the rotation. Besides Jon Niese, the Mets only have high potential hopefuls right now and no established options.
So, lots of things may still go wrong. The front office could sign or trade for the wrong players.
Still, the key part of this post was the general idea behind this rebuilding – which IMHO seems pretty sound.
The Braves and Nats and some if not most of baseball will disagree with you on the Mets having the highest upside young pitching. We can only really count on our not even gets and Harvey. The Nats have much more success at the big-league level, and so do the Braves. The Marlins have arguably just as much overall talent in their system as the Mets. Once they move Stanton, they will have even more. I don’t buy the Mets financial flexibility because…well the last 2-3 years have shown them to be good at losing money, and really good at not investing in the product.
The Nats and Braves certainly have more established young pitching in the majors and a good track record of developing pitching.
But the Mets have more prospect depth among higher end pitching prospects in the minors right now. And over the past two seasons, the development of pitching has been pretty steady with strong results in the minors numbers-wise and a very low injury total.
Time will tell, but if there´s one strength in the entire organization right now, it´s a plethora of very promising RH pitching.
Good post.
OK, but the analysis is incomplete. For any of this to be valid, you have to prove that other teams have tried a similar path and found success as well. If two teams have been successfully with this strategy (which one year is too quick to call the Nats a success) and ten teams have failed, then does it make it a good strategy to follow?
It’s like me going to you and saying that we should jump off a bridge…and I say that Mike and Steve did it and they are OK, but I fail to mention that Joe, Bob, Ivan, Frank, Seth, Billy, David and George all died…
Let’s not mention how may teams have not followed this approach and still have had success. I personally would want to follow the Card’s plan for success. Solid pitching and key FA’s to fill out the lineup. Send, but do it smartly and don’t over spend.
I believe in starting pitching…and I don’t believe that we are as in good a position as many seem to want to believe…but you can’t forget that both the Nats and Giants have been willing to bring in key players during the season and during the off season. We know that not every FA is going to be a winner, but assuming that every FA is going to bust is not going to make you any better.
“Still, leaving out any individual decisions on players over the past couple of years or how good you believe the talent evaluation skills of the current front office are or aren’t”
BAD…VERY BAD!
Especially considering most of the Pitching we have is not due to anything this FO has done….
Maybe they will get credit for Wheeler when he gets here….
But the real problem with thinking THIS is the plan is we just traded away our BEST pitcher to get a catcher which is totally against what the stated plan is isn’t it?
A little difficult to say your going to build a team around pitching only to lose it to fix something else….
It’s a classic Mis-direction to say this is our plan….
It’s our marketing and an attempt to sell the one thing we have HAD even before Sandy got here!
Because he has failed to get anything he says is the goal of the plan…
Truth it that would appear more like OMAR’s plan since he is the one who got all the pitching we are relying on.
Since when is a strong rotation a new “role model”?
Since the beginning of time anyone w/any baseball sense knows that strong pitching trumps strong hitting.
Was that a mystery???
Duhhhh….
LOL good point there Joe….
Not really so much a plan as it is just another PHILOSOPHY isn’t it?
I guess thier first best destiny is as Philosophers who rarely work, just sit around THINKING while toehrs around them ACT on their musings….
It does explain the lack of moves so far this offseason.
A few BIG differences between the Mets and the Giants.
From the time Lincecum and Cain came up, it took 5 seasons for SF to win a championship. Lincecum, I believe, came up in 06, Cain in 05. The Giants won it 2010. They didnt have overnight success. 5 years. Based on this–even if Harvey and Wheeler are Cain and Lincecum 2.0 and come up this season, we’re looking at 2018.
Also, the Giants came up with other guys like Bumgarner, Vogelsong. Do you believe Alderson has the talent to find these other type of caliber players?
And the Giants, while focusing on pitching, also produced Buster Posey (ROY in 10, MVP in 12), Pablo Sandoval (batting champ in 09) and other good players. Do you see us having a guy like Posey and Sandoval? I dont.
(then again, even if we did, Alderson wouldnt pay them anyway)
Well,
There is one other thing to consider. The Dodger pitching was as good as the Nats (3.34 ERA as opposed to 3.33 and just three more total runs allowed) and they pitched is a more hitter friendly ball park, yet the Nationals won 12 more games than Los Angeles because they scored nearly 100 runs more than Fred Wilpon’s favorite team.
The Nats were fifth in the league in scoring, producing just 45 less runs than the league leader. The Giants were right behind them, scoring just 58 less than Milwaukee.
So it was more than pitching. Washington outscored their opponents by 137 runs. The Giants scored only 13 runs less than Washington and gave up 54 more so they outscored their opponents by just 67 runs – the sign of a great team which can win the close ones.
So the plan has to include hitting – like with the Nationals and to a lesser extent, the Giants – both finished in the top six in run production. The Mets need to add the bats to go along with the pitching hopefuls and we are not about to do that with the outfield we have.
And the plan also has to include a better bullpen too.
I have been a met fan since 1964 and in 1967 a rookie named Tom Seaver came up and won
16 games and in 1968 a rookie named Jerry Koosman won 19 games and in 1969 they won it
all with great pitching and an ok offense and in 1973 they came close with great pitching and
an ok offense! In the 1980′s they had great pitching and a great clutch offense and now the
great pitching is developing again! I don’t care what you people say Harvey and Niese are
the real deal and I really believe Wheeler will be too!! And again in 2013 we will
have an ok offense but with our SP we will compete for a wild card this year if we can
keep it close the first half like last year and give Wheeler and Harvey a chance to establish
themselves and Santana and Gee stay healthy who knows? The 1969 mets were not suppose
to go anywhere either and with two wild cards (there were none in 1969) anything is possible!!
I also believe SA will trade for a righthand power hitting outfielder or sign Hairston which will
improve our offense too!! Wheeler will have a great spring and make it very hard for the mets
not to take him north to queens but even if starts the year in AAA he will come up ASAP and have plenty of time to left to make an impact on the season and establish himself along with
Harvey as two of the best young pitchers in baseball!!
plenty of the season left to make an impact and
Hi Craig,
When was the last time we saw a team like the 1969 Miracle Mets? Even Oakland and Baltimore from last season can’t compare to that one – we both lived through it and knew what it was like.
Yes speed, pitching, defense and a lack of hitting won in for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1965 and 1966 as it did the Giants in 2010. But most clubs with strong pitching also had decent hitting to get into the post-season.
What Craig said! . . .Pitching, speed and defense! . . .and one more slugger in the outfield.
The Mets are almost there.
Obviously the offense (and defense !) isn´t playoff caliber yet.
The Infield is fine as it is. Ike & Wright should be two legit middle of the order hitters. Tejada & Murphy are solid enough – I happen to believe that Murph´s defense improved quite a bit over the course of the season and he has turned into a playable 2bman.
D´Arnaud (maybe backed up by Centeno going forward !) hopefully will give the Mets an at least average, if not well above average to elite young C to build around soon.
That leaves the outfield as the major area to improve. Getting one middle of the order OF bat and two averagish outfielders, preferably at least one strong defender should suffice.
Now, one of those spots can also be a platoon. But it´s highly unlikely that two thirds of the next Mets playoff outfield are already on the 40-man roster. So, while I believe there´s a good chance the bullpen could pretty much take care of itself. Maybe even the rotation with all the young pitching on the rise, the OF will need to be adressed over the next 15 to 20 months. Be it via trade(s), free agency or unforeseen development from within or a surprise scrap-heap pickup.
agreed that by looking at the current ML team and prospect pipeline, it really is the OF where they have to do some work. The P coming up should also have a spill over to the pen, and you can always grab a few new guys for that every off season.
Just like 69, just like 73, just like 86, it’s about the pitching staff getting better. The seeds of those teams started when the pitching started to come through. We need the minor league pitching to improve the majors staff. Niese, Gee first, then Harvey, Edgin, Familia, Carson, Ramirez and hopefully McHugh and Wheeler next, with Syndergaard and Fuller and Montero next. One of these guys can be traded for a hitter down the line, depending on the need.
If Sandy is running the show in 69 or 73 there is no 69 or 73. He would have gotten rid of players before August and would not have gotten Donn Clendennon. And in 73 he would have gotten rid of the team’s best talent too and he would have done that before August as well.
I don’t think so.Mrs. Payson was the owner and Hodges Manager. It would not have happened.
I think you’re right. I don’t think Gil Hodges works for a guy like Alderson.
Sandy: We have done the math and we found that we need you to work on raising out PPPA
Hodges: You just go into your office and look for some trade to make ands leave the team to me. And if you trade Seaver I hope you can swim because I’ll throw you into Flushing Bay….And they call it flushing for a good reason!
How many players in their 20s has Alderson traded yet ?
He traded Beltran who was 34 and eligible for free agency two months later.
He also traded Dickey who is 38 – and may have an arm that may hold up till he´s 48 – but who also has battled leg injuries for back to back seasons and was one year away from free agency.
Wright hasn´t been traded. Neither has Niese. And for good reason in both cases – because unlike Beltran or Dickey, these two have a pretty good chance to remain productive for the next 5+ years (with all due respect for Beltran & Dickey, two tremendous players & role models for sure that come with far higher risk given their age & injury history).
And again, the Mets are REBUILDING !!! Whether you agree with it or not.
Rebuilding teams at times trade key veteran players close to free agency. And that´s exactly what happened. Sandy certainly isn´t Saint Sandy, of course. He botched the Reyes situation – whether with or without an assist from his owners and has shown a surprising lack of creativity, at least until this off-season, in terms of patching shortterm holes on the major league roster.
So, let´s see how he does when the Mets are close to contention again and whether he also trades every player over age 28 and isn´t willing to trade any of his top 25 prospects. If that´s the case, then sure, blast him for that. However, why keep players in their mid 30s longterm or trade prospects for veterans right now when you´re in the middle of building something ?
It´s like being upset that someone has failed to buy curtains or a bed for the 5th floor appartment when the building is being built – currently the 4th floor.
Or be upset that the nice bed from the old building was sold at a high price right before the old building with the leaking roof was demolished.